At 4-1, the Atlanta Falcons have only lost to the New England Patriots.  The four teams that they have defeated are the Dolphins, Panthers, 49ers, and most recently the Bears.  How did the Patriots do it?  Are their clues in the numbers?

The following stats are the actual numbers of Atlanta’s opponents this year, including the stats of the one team that they were defeated by, the New England Patriots. 

Which number is the Patriots’ average yard gained per rush?

A)      4.3 – this one

B)      4.4

C)      5.8

D)     5.9

The other numbers belong to MIA, CAR, and SF.

Which number represents the Patriots’ yards passing versus Atlanta?

A)      277 – right here

B)      300

C)      308

The other numbers belong to CHI and CAR.

Which number represents Tom Brady’s quarterback rating versus Atlanta?

A)      82.2

B)      84.8

C)      87.1 – yep

But his stat is not a lot better than Delhomme or Pennington.

To me, the following numbers show more of the reason why NE defeated ATL.

Time of Possession:

A)      39:49 – NE

B)      33:54 – CHI

C)      29:07 – MIA

D)     28:28 – CAR

E)      23:31 – SF

In my opinion, NE won with slow, methodical, patient, clock-burning drives. 

Just take a look at several of the Patriots’ offensive drives:

Started at their own 16

Burned 8:39 off of the clock

15 plays

Kicked a 21 yard FG

Started at their own 27

Burned 3:36 off of the clock

12 plays

Kicked a 33 yard FG

Started at their own 17

Burned 5:59 off of the clock

13 plays

Kicked a 22 yard FG

Started at their own 15

Burned 6:59 off of the clock

16 plays

Kicked a 33 yard FG

Started at their own 22

Final drive of the 4th quarter and Atlanta never got the ball back

Burned 6:52 off of the clock

11 plays

Ended with a Brady “kneel down”

Another telling statistic:

Atlanta’s 3rd down conversion percentage on offense

A)      57% versus SF

B)      50% versus CAR

C)      42% versus CHI

D)     40% versus MIA

E)      Only 22% versus NE

Of the 9 opportunities that ATL had 3rd down versus NE:

1.       3rd and 7 converted on a 21 yard pass

2.       3rd and 3 – inc

3.       3rd and 7 – inc

4.       3rd and 3 – inc

5.       3rd and 3 converted on an 11 yard pass

6.       3rd and 18 – only got 13 on a pass

7.       3rd and 14 – only got 7 on a pass

8.       3rd and 3 – inc

9.       3rd and 4 – inc

I know there's more than one way to "skin a cat" but the NE method was......

1) On Defense - keep ATL from converting on 3rd down

2) On Offense - be patient, eat up the clock, and keep Matt Ryan on the bench

Do the Cowboys need to replicate this approach, or create their own way to defeat Atlanta?

I'd like to begin by inserting a quote from Mike Fisher's post from Oct 7 titled Fish on Football Wednesday Notes: Good-Looking Brooking.  (By the way, I've really been enjoying his writings and I think he adds a "new twist" to BTB.)

Here is the quote:

Dallas faced a third-and-14 from its own 22. Is this when you "gun-sling it''? (Heck, you are NOT going to convert on third-and-14 against a solid Denver defense. You just aren't.) Or is this when you use McBriar to play some push-me/pull-you field position, to move the Broncos way back south? (Yessir. That is what you do. We all boo when our team runs a third-and-14 draw play, but that is what you do.) Dallas opted for Plan A. The Cowboys lineup in the shotgun and they put Choice in motion meaning Romo is in an empty backfield. Here comes a blindside safety blitz - quite possible dictated by the empty backfield - and Renaldo Hill records the sack and the forced fumble. Seconds later, what was 10-0 and a long Denver field is 10-7 and the Broncos have their free touchdown and their 4-0 confidence. Third-and-14 from your own 22, people.

The looming question in my mind, after watching that dreadful play, and then reading Mike's assessment on Wednesday, is this:  Was the play bad because it was the wrong play for that situation, or was the play bad because it was not executed correctly by the players?

Opinions will come down on both sides of the fence.  Some saying it was Garrett's fault and he should have never called that play in that situation (this is Mike's argument, and I partly believe it.)  Others will say that the lost fumble was Romo's fault for not "feeling" the pass rush, suggesting that he should have thrown the ball away if no receiver was open.  Others will lay the blame on the offensive line, suggesting that if they would have known their assignments and properly executed them, the "sack-fumble" would have never happened.  Maybe some will blame the wide receivers for not getting open in time for Romo to complete the pass.  (Truth known - it was probably a combination of all these factors.)

Let me insert here that I researched all of Week 4's games wondering how other teams handle 3rd and very long situations.  I knew that it would be difficult to find another team with a similar situation to  Dallas' 3rd and 14 at their own 22, facing a tough defense like Denver's.  But I thought it would be worth a shot in the dark.

Four teams had a bye week: ARI, ATL, CAR, and PHI

Of the remaining 28 teams, only IND did not find themselves in a 3rd down with 10 or more yards needed for a 1st down. (Is that a compliment to the IND offense or a strike against the SEA defense?)

So 27 teams had at least one opportunity to run an offensive play from 3rd and 10 or longer.  Here are my findings:

Total number of plays 3rd and 10 or longer in week 4 in the NFL = 109

Of the 109 plays, 91 resulted in a pass (83.5%) and 18 resulted in a run (16.5%)

Consider first the 91 passes: 31 were incomplete, 28 were complete but not for a 1st down, 15 were complete resulting in a first down, 11 were sacks, 3 resulted in touchdowns, 3 resulted in interceptions.

Of the 18 runs: 2 were scrambles by the QB, 3 were "kneel downs" at the end of the game.

Of the remaining 13 runs: 2 of them were executed by a winning team within the last 2 minutes of the 4th quarter in an attempt to burn time off of the clock. And 6 of them were ran DEEP near their own end zone (on the 4, 6, 11, 11, 12, and 13 yard line.)  The final 5 runs took place in better field position and never resulted in a first down. 

None of the 18 runs resulted in a first down.  It is obvious that most teams do attempt to pass the ball in 3rd and very long situations unless they are pinned DEEP near their own end zone.  Would you consider the 22 yard line too deep in your own territory to attempt a pass, thereby settling for a short run on 3rd and very long, knowing that you are going to punt on 4th down?  I guess it is a judgment call.  Some would pass, others would run.

Fellow-blogger rangerjake had this to say in response to this same conversation on Mike's original post on Wednesday:

My opinion is...

if you can’t occassionaly trust your quarterback to attempt to pick up a 3rd and 14 without having the intelligence to avoid a complete disaster, you need a new quarterback. Check for an open guy, if it’s not there throw it away. You have to be able to pick up a 3rd and 14 at some point during the game, big plays lead to points, and throwing away a possession just because you’re at 3rd and 14 is bad football. But having a quarterback who is going to risk a stupid stupid turnover in that scenario is going to cost you a lot of football games. - by rangerjake on Oct 8, 2009 6:22 PM EDT

I'm having some difficulty trying to determine if the pass play was the right call or not on that unfortunate 3rd and 14 at the 22.  

What do you think?

(By the way, I never did find a similar situation of a team up in points, near their 20 yard line, against a very tough defense, on 3rd down with 10 or more yards for a 1st - but it was worth a try.)

Have you seen the movie Apollo 13?  I have, and am inspired with American patriotism each time I watch it.  You might remember that, in some ways, Apollo 13 was a failed mission; the three astronauts could not land on the moon after sustaining a crippling explosion. Thus pilot Jim Lovell (played by Tom Hanks) said, “Houston…we have a problem.”  This idiom has since been used by many of us to say, “Something is wrong here.”  That’s what I felt like saying after Sunday night’s debacle at JerryWorld.

Priority one, as Apollo 13 returned to Earth was to get the astronauts home safely, but the odds were against them.  The challenge was to carefully execute an essential, mid-course correction so as not to enter the earth’s atmosphere at the wrong angle, incinerating the ship and crew.

An answer to the problem was found after some frenzied but brilliant brainstorming.  An exercise in remarkable teamwork between the people at the Johnson Center in Houston and the astronauts, determined that a thirty-nine second “burn” of the thrusters was needed in order to get back on the correct course.  It resulted in a safe splashdown in the Pacific Ocean.  Mission accomplished.

I hope that Wade Phillips and Jason Garrett are doing some “brilliant brainstorming.”  I do not feel that the Dallas Cowboy players have lost their “vital optimism” in spite of last week’s let-down.  The team chemistry that was so desperately missing last year seems to be in place for the moment and is helping the disappointed team to focus on the upcoming challenge (the Carolina Panthers,) rather than sulk in the failures of last week. 

History is on our side.

In 2007, Tony Romo’s passer rating for game 5 was an abysmal 49.9 but the following week improved to 91.0.  Again in 2008, Romo’s quarterback rating for week 14 was 44.9, but he rebounded seven days later with a great game (113.7).  Last week his rating was 29.6.  

If Romo follows suit (as his history seems to suggest) he should have an outstanding game versus Carolina on Monday night.  Perhaps the Panther defense falls victim to his resurgence.

Now Wade also has to make proper adjustments for his fledgling secondary, and unleash his defensive fury in the blitzkrieg style that he is known for.  I’m hopeful that both units (offense and defense) pick up their game this week and we head into Denver on week 4 with a 2-1 record.

If not, it may take more than a “thirty-nine second burn of the thrusters” to get the Cowboys back on course.

When I was about 11 years old, I remember watching a certain running back excel on 3rd downs for my beloved Cowboys.  His name: Preston Pearson.  The year: 1975.  After playing for the Colts and Steelers early in his career, he came to Dallas in ’75 and retired six years later in ’80 after a total of 14 years in the NFL.

Preston Pearson was widely known as the player who defined the position of a "3rd Down Back," a novelty in those days.  At the end of his career he had rushed for over 3,600 yards and had nearly 3,100 yards receiving.  He was an adept runner with great receiving skills, which made him a valued commodity on the Cowboy’s offense, especially on crucial 3rd down plays. Even though the opposition knew he was going to get the ball on 3rd down, it seemed to me that they could rarely stop him from "moving the chains."

I’ve been interested to see if Jason Garrett is planning on using Tashard Choice in the Preston Pearson role.   Thus far, in this very short season, the Cowboys have had 21 "3rd-Down" opportunities.  And no player has touched the ball more on 3rd-Down than Tashard Choice (6 times.)  I hope the trend continues, and that he becomes every bit the terror to modern defenses, that Preston was "back in the day."

Here’s a breakdown:

Tashard Choice

3rd and 4 – ran for 7 yards (1st down)

3rd and 7 – reception for 5 yards

3rd and 20 – reception for 1 yard

3rd and 3 – reception for 3 yards (1st down)

3rd and 3 – ran for 5 yards (1st down)

3rd and 10 – ran for 3 yards (deep near our endzone – McBriar needed punting space)

While I’m on the subject of 3rd down conversions, let me mention that so far this year on 3rd down Romo has thrown the ball 15 times:

4 times to Crayton  = 0 conversions

2 times to R. Williams = 0 conversions

2 times to Bennett = 0 conversions

3 times to Choice = 1 conversion

4 times to Witten = 4 conversions

*Every time Romo has thrown to Witten on 3rd down it was converted to a 1st down or a Touchdown.

The Cowboys have been in 3rd and short 9 times (4 yards or less)

5 times they passed – converted 3 of them

4 times they ran – converted all 4 of them (Choice twice, Barber once, Romo once)

*Every time the Cowboys have run the ball on 3rd and short they have converted to a 1st down or Touchdown.

Here’s to Tashard Choice becoming the next Preston Pearson = cheers!!

Yesterday I heard Gil Brandt on Sirius NFL radio make a statement that lit a candle of hope inside of me.  And I needed a little hope after that debacle that I watched Sunday night. 

Mr. Brandt, who I have the utmost respect for, and who is affectionately referred to as the “Godfather” on Sirius, said that since 2002 forty-eight teams that started the season with an 0-2 record, or a 1-1 record, still made the playoffs.  Gil added that 57% of the teams with a 1-1 record or less, made the playoffs since 2002.

Then the Godfather said to all the NFL fans listening, that if your favorite team stands at 1-1 or 0-2, you still have greater than 50% chance of making the playoffs.

Once I got home, I verified his statement by checking all the records since 2002, and he is right.

I took his thought a little further and also determined that, during that same time period, 12 of the 28 teams that made it to the Conference Championship Game, began their season with a 1-1 record or less.

And even more encouraging is the fact that in:

2002 – Tampa Bay won the Super Bowl (and started the season with a 1-1 record)

2003 – New England won the Super Bowl (and started the season with a 1-1 record)

2005 – Seattle lost the Super Bowl (and started the season with a 1-1 record)

2007 – New York Giants won the Super Bowl (and started the season with an 0-2 record)

Thank you, Mr. Brandt, I for one needed to hear that.

Look at Williams' Scouting Report from:

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1256306

Rd 3 - #5(69) Jason Williams (OLB) W Illinois

Height 6-1

Weight 241

Ranked 7th among OLB in draft

Projected Round 2-3

Williams was a terror in opposing backfields since shifting to weak-side linebacker from strong safety as a sophomore. In each of his last three seasons, he ranked among the nation's leaders in forced fumbles and tackles behind the line of scrimmage. 

He has the quickness of a safety dropping back in zone coverage and is an above-average player in the open field with suddenness to close.  He is a quick study taking plays from the chalkboard to the field. He prepares well and understands assignments. 

Williams is a blue-chip prospect with a blue-collar work ethic. He is a self-starter who puts in the extra hours in the weight room and film room. He has no known off-field issues.  Williams plays to the whistle.  Williams is a solid wrap-up tackler.  

Compares To: JAMES HARRISON, Pittsburgh -- This is high praise for an unknown player, but the more film scouts watch on Williams, the more they will notice he has the "it" factor.

It looks like he fits the bill for:

1) hard working, tough players

2) football smarts

How awesome would it be if he turns out to be another James Harrison?

Ok, Jerry invites you into the "War Room" on draft day.  He looks a little worried; some of the players he was hoping for are off the board.  Tom Ciskowski reviews the remaining top players with you.  Jason Garrett is putting pressure on you for offensive help, but Wade Phillips reminds you that the defense has been suspect.

Then without any further discussion, Jerry Jones, looks you in the eye and says, "You make the call!"

Immediately following the 2009 NFL draft, football analyst, coaches, and arm-chair quarterbacks will give a draft grade to all 32 teams.

We all read them and either agree or disagree.

Truth is, a draft class shouldn't really be graded until about 3 years later.

So maybe now we can actually give an accurate grade to our 2006 Draftees.  Potentially, each player has had 3 years to develop and produce for his team.

Following is a list of each player drafted in the NFC East in 2006.  The stats that follow their names represent their 2008 season.

DAL

R1 - 18 Bobby Carpenter (LB) - 13 games, 0 starts, 13 tackles

R2 - 53 Anthony Fasano (TE) - MIA

R3 - 92 Jason Hatcher (DE) - 16 games, 0 starts, 17 tackles

R4 - 125 Skyler Green (WR) - NO

R5 - 138 Pat Watkins (FS) - 8 games, 0 starts, 21 tackles

R6 - 182 Montavious Stanley (DT) - NO

R7 - 211 Pat McQuistan (G) - 16 games, 0 starts

R7 - 224 E.J. Whitley (C) - not in the NFL

• 8 draftees
• 4 players still on team = 53 games, 0 starts
• 3 players on another team
• 1 player not in NFL

PHI

R1 - 14 Brodrick Bunkley (DT) - 16 games, 16 starts, 47 tackles

R2 - 39 Winston Justice (OT) - 5 games, 0 starts

R3 - 71 Chris Gocong (DE) - 16 games, 12 starts, 59 tackles

R4 - 99 Max Jean-Gilles (G) - 12 games, 10 starts

R4  - 109 Jason Avant (WR) - 15 games, 6 starts, 32 rec, 377 yds, 2 TDs

R5 - 147 Jeremy Bloom (WR) - not in NFL

R5 - 168 Omar Gaither (OLB) - 16 games, 10 starts, 59 tackles, 2.5 sacks

R6 - 204 LaJuan Ramsey (DT) - TEN

• 8 draftees
• 6 players still with team = 80 games, 54 starts
• 1 player with another team
• 1 player not in NFL

NYG

R1 - 32 Mathias Kiwanuka (DE) - 16 games, 16 starts, 51 tackles, 8 sacks

R2 -44 Sinorice Moss (WR) - 10 games, 0 starts, 12 rec, 153 yds, 2 TDs

R3 - 96 Gerris Wilkinson (ILB) - 8 games, 5 starts, 10 tackles

R4 - 124 Barry Cofield (DT) - 15 games, 15 starts, 43 tackles, 3 sacks

R4 - 129 Guy Whimper (OT) - 16 games, 0 starts

R5 - 158 Charlie Peprah (SS) - GB

R7 - 232 Gerrick McPhearson (CB) - Not in NFL

• 7 draftees
• 5 players still with team = 65 games, 36 starts
• 1 player on another team
• 1 player not in NFL

WAS (edited)

R2 - 35 Rocky McIntosh (OLB) - 16 games, 15 starts, 87 tackles, 2 sacks

R5 - 153 Anthony Montgomery (DT) - 14 games, 6 starts, 23 tackles, 2 sacks

R6 - 173 Reed Doughty (SS) - 4 games, 3 starts, 19 tackles

R6 - 196 Kedric Golston (DT) - 13 games, 12 starts, 19 tackles, 2 sacks

R7 - 230 Kili Lefotu (G) - Not in NFL

R7 - 250 Kevin Simon (ILB) - Not in NFL

• 6 draftees
• 4 players still with team = 47 games, 36 starts
• 3 players not in NFL

What grade would you give each NFC East team for its 2006 draft, in 2009?

I've never been to Cowboys game live :(

But that's gonna change this year :)

I know almost nothing in regard to the best way to get game tickets, etc.  I'm a complete novice at this, and that's why I'm asking you guys for help.

Let me ask a few questions, and any advise you can offer will be greatly appreciated.

1) How many days ahead do I need to secure tickets?

2) What in the world is "seat option price" compared to "ticket price?"

3) Is traffic a huge problem? Should I get to the stadium an hour early? two hours, early? or what?

4) Are there "bad seats" that I should really shy away from? endzone seats? upper deck seat?

5) Are there pre-game or post-game events that I need to plan on seeing?

6) Are there hotels close to the stadium? within walking distance?

7) My family (including a 10 year old son) will be with me, are there areas for "family seating?"

8) Is the food in the stadium extremely expensive?

There are probably other questions I'll come up with later, but any info you can give will help considerably - thanks.

My goal with this present research was to find out if “shorter” receivers had more success against our defense last year than “taller” receivers; and to look ahead at 2009’s schedule to preview the receivers that our CBs have to cover this year.

Here’s the breakdown from last year:

95 different players caught passes versus the DAL defense in 2008

49 WRs, 27 RBs, and 19 TEs

I hope to offer a future post on the RBs and TEs, but for now, let’s focus on the WRs.

I decided to break down the WRs into three categories:

Shorter – up to 5’11

Medium – 6’0” to 6’2

Taller – 6’3 and above

The shortest WRs we faced last year were 5’8”

NYG – S Moss, STL – D Hall, CIN – A Chatman

The tallest WR we faced last year was 6’5”

NYG – P Burress

Shorter WRs                                       Medium WRs                                     Taller WRs

18 players                                            20 players                                            11 players

87 receptions                                     68 receptions                                     32 receptions

1081 yards                                           839 yards                                             366 yards

12.4 yards per rec                            12.3 yards per rec                            11.4 yards per rec

4 TDs                                                     5 TDs                                                     2 TDs

Observations:

We faced NEARLY TWICE as many short wrs (18) as tall wrs (11)

The short wrs caught NEARLY THREE TIMES as many passes (87) as the tall wrs (32)

The short wrs gained NEARLY THREE TIMES as many yards (1081) as the tall wrs (366)

The short wrs also caught TWICE as many TDs (4) and the tall wrs (2)

Fact:

Our CBs need to be able to cover short to medium WRs MORE THAN medium to tall WRs.

Our current CBs:

Allan Ball – 6’1” (medium)

Mike Hawkins - 6’1” (medium)

Terence Newman – 5’11” (shorter)

Orlando Scandrick – 5’10” (shorter)

Mike Jenkins – 5’10” (shorter)

Per this year’s schedule we have to cover:

These shorter WRs (up to 5’11”)

NYG – S Smith (two games)

PHI – D Jackson (two games)

WAS – S Moss (two games)

WAS – A Randle El (two games)

TB – J Galloway

CAR – S Smith

DEN – E Royal

SEA – D Branch

GB – G Jennings

OAK – J Higgins

SD – C Chambers

NO – D Henderson

And these taller WRs (6’3” and up)

DEN – B Marshall

ATL – M Jenkins

SD – V Jackson

NO – M Colston

(*Some of these players may be traded to other teams; after the draft we may have to add new receivers to either list.)

The point again is that our CBs must be able to cover the short, shifty, speedy wide-outs MORE THAN the taller, more physical ones if we are to have success shutting down the aerial attack, especially in the "pass-happy" NFL that we live in right now.

As far as the Draft goes, I would prefer that DAL pick mid-to-late-round CBs to fit the bill:

6’0” – Keenan Lewis (Oregon St) 40 time = 4.49

6’0” – Kevin Barnes (Maryland) 40 time = 4.45

6’0” – Mike Mickens (Cincinnati) 40 time = 4.57

6’0” – Jason McCourty (Rutgers) 40 time = 4.30

6’0” – Bradley Fletcher (Iowa) 40 time = 4.44

5’11” – Victor Harris (Virginia Tech) 40 time = 4.46

5’11” - Greg Toler (St Paul) 40 time = 4.35 (hand timed)

5’11” – Glover Quin (New Mexico) 40 time = 4.54

5’11” – DeAngelo Willingham (Tenn) 40 time = 4.46

5’10” – Joe Burnett (Central FL) 40 time = 4.51

5’10” – Lardarius Webb (Nichols St) 40 time = 4.46

5’10” – Brandon Hughes (Oregon St) 40 time = 4.50

Do you think any of these CBs could help us, now or in the near future, in shutting down smaller, speedier WRs? 

Or perhaps you have other CBs on your draft board that fit the bill?