NBA.com's team stats show the thru today, the Blazers have the highest RPI (Relative Percent Index) in the league. The RPI is an index that factors in a team's winning percentage and its strength of schedule. Their RPI is 0.674, higher than MIami (0.627), Chicago (0.627), and OKC (0.578), the favorites to win the NBA championship this year.

The Blazers having the best record in the West is well publicized. But did you know that they have played the 2nd hardest schedule to date? It is only minutely less difficult than the Clippers, who have the hardest Strength of Schedule. The Blazers have beat the 5th (Denver), 6th (OKC), and 7th (Lakers) best teams in terms of RPI, and lost only to the 4th best (Clippers).

The table below shows the RPI and SOS taken from http://espn.go.com/nba/stats/rpi today. It shows the ranking in terms of RPI and SOS. It also shows how far along in the range from bottom to top of each of these indices a team's metric is located. In other words, the top team is at 100% and the bottom team is at 0%, and this shows how far along this range each team is.

The Blazers are at 100% on RPI (the tops!) and 99% on SOS. So they've gone 5-1 while playing essentially the toughest schedule the league. At the other extreme, Washington hasn't won yet and has played almost the easiest schedule (11%): shows why they needed a team meeting. Among the other surprise teams this year, Denver has had a fairly tough schedule (77%), while Indiana (54%) and Philadelphia (55%) have had average schedules.

GO BLAZERS!!!!

The RPI is calculated as 25% winning percentage and 75% strength of schedule, where strength of schedule is composed of 2/3 opponents' winning percentage and 1/3 winning percentage of opponents' opponents. Here's the table:

December 17, one year ago, was when BRoy missed the first game of what eventually became a career-ending degradation of his knees. The team went 36-20 for the rest of the season, without BRoy and Oden. And 26-15 before Wallace hit the starting lineup. That's winning at a 52-win-season rate. And see if you agree with my analysis that we are significantly better now than a year ago.

Let's compare the roster on that date to what we anticipate for the beginning of this year, essentially one year later, and compare the two rosters.

Starting Lineup (One Year Ago/Today)

Camby/Camby: Same player, a year older.

Aldridge/Aldridge: Same player, with a year as the team leader under his belt. Emerging all-star.

Batum/Wallace: Upgrade. Wallace in his prime, once an all-star and all-defensive team. Hope Batum gets there too.

Matthews/Matthews: Same player. A year better. Healed ankle.

Miller/Felton: Upgrade. Different player. More pick and rolls. More running. Better outside shooter. Younger.

Bench

Rudy/Crawford: Upgrade. First 2-guard off bench. Proven to be what we hoped Rudy would become. Recent 6th man of year.

Cunningham/Batum: Upgrade. First 3/4 off bench. Batum is rising performer, Dante a mediocre (but nice) tweener 4.

Przybilla/Kurt Thomas: Upgrade. Pryzybilla was coming off terrible knee injury. Thomas old, but solid.

Marks/Chris Johnson: Upgrade. Johnson has potential. Marks had nothin.

Babbitt/Babbitt: Same player. Maybe he'll improve on his dismal 1st year. Couldn't do worse.

Armon Johnson/Armon Johnson: Same player. Hoping for 2nd year improvement.

Patty Mills/Nolan Smith: Upgrade. Patty was too undersized. Smith has potential to be solid.

Hurt

Elliot Williams: Upgrade. Hurt last year, now healthy. Lots of athletic potential.

Oden/Oden: Same hurt player. Looks like he'll never achieve his top ten center of all time potential.

BRoy:BRoy: Hurt for most of rest of season. Now amnestied. How tragic!

The bottom line is that we've subbed Felton for Miller, and added Wallace and Crawford, two strong players, in place of below average players. So I would say that our current top seven players is much better than the top seven who were playing for the Blazers only one year ago, considering that Oden and BRoy were both hurt at that time. And the no-BRoy, no-Oden team won at a 52-win-season rate. Maybe despite all of our trauma, we'll do well this season.

GO BLAZERS!

I CORRECTED THIS IN RESPONSE TO A COMMENT, WHICH POINTED OUT THAT THE LOSS TO THE LAKERS ON FEB 26 WAS AT HOME, NOT AWAY.  STILL SAME BASIC CONCLUSION: BLAZERS ARE 0.625 AGAINST WESTERN CONFERENCE TEAMS THIS CALENDAR YEAR, WHILE MAVS ARE 0.200.

Reason for hope: Blazers have played much better than the Mavs against the best in the West since January 1:

Win-loss record against Western Conference playoff teams in 2011:

• Blazers 10-6
• Mavs 3-12

Home win-loss record against Western Conference playoff teams in 2011:

• Blazers 8-1
• Mavs 3-5

Road win-loss record against Western Conference playoff teams in 2011:

• Blazers 1-5
• Mavs 0-7

The key difference is that the Blazers haven't lost at home to a Western Conference team this year (8-1), while the Mavs have a losing home record (3-5).  Neither team has done much on the road, but the Mavs appear to be much more vulnerable at home.

GO BLAZERS!!!

LaMarcus Aldridge has averaged 25/10 for the last 29 games.  To put this in perspective, I searched for all players in the last 25 years who averaged 25/10 or better for the whole season.  Eight players did it for a combined 36 seasons.  The names are among the all-time great big men:

• Shaq                   10 times
• Karl Malone           9 times
• Barkley                 5 times
• Hakeem                4 times
• David Robinson      4 times
• Ewing                   2 times
• Duncan                1 time
• Webber                1 time

All are but Duncan and Webber are on the NBA’s top 50 of all time list, published in 1996 on the NBA’s 50th birthday.  Certainly Duncan would make the list today.

So you can conclude that during LaMarcus’s streak, he has been playing at an all-time top 50 level!  Keep it up, LA!  It’s a pleasure to watch you!

http://bkref.com/tiny/T9m76

We've come to the point where the "new LaMarcus" has played exactly as many games this season as the "old LaMarcus."  The "old LaMarcus" played 26 games, and then BRoy, our franchise player, went out with double knee surgeries.  The "new LaMarcus" has filled the void as go to guy quite remarkably.  What do the scoring and rebounding stats tell us about this tale of two half seasons?

The "old LaMarcus" averaged 17.8 points and 8.0 rebounds. This is consistent with his prior three (non-rookie) years, in which he averaged 17.9 and 7.7.

So what has the "new LaMarcus" done?  Just averaged 25.4 points and 10.2 rebounds.  He jumped his scoring by 43% and his rebounding by 28%!

Points-wise, "new LaMarcus" would be tied witrh Kobe and DWade for 4th in scoring, behind only Durant, Amare, and LeBron,

Rebounding-wise, "new LaMarcus" would be 6th in the league, behind Kevin Love, Dwight Howard, Zach Randolph, Blake Griffin, and Pau Gasol.

If you make a "big man index" that adds points per game and rebounds per game, the rankings of this year's top big men are as follows:

 1 Love 37.0

 2 "new LaMarcus": 36.6

 3 Dwight Howard 36.1

 4 Durant 36.0

 5 Griffin 35.7

 6 Amare 35.1

 7+: 33 or below: LeBron, Randolph, Carmelo, Nowitzski, Gasol

"old LaMarcus": 25.8

"New LaMarcus" has vaulted himself to the top of the pack of NBA big men!  What a remarkable transformation!  Congratulations, LA, and keep it up.  Good things lay ahead!

Amare Stoudemire is currently ranked 4th in the MVP race by ESPN in their MVP Watch.  He is the highest ranked power forward.

LaMarcus Aldridge, since his emergence as the Blazers' go to guy, has been putting up Amare-like numbers.  In January, here are their numbers:

Stoudemire: 25.7 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 3.2 apg (total = 37.2)

Aldridge:    24.9 ppg, 10.4 rpg, 2.6 apg (total = 37.9)

So not only is LaMarcus putting up all-star numbers, he is putting up numbers that are on par with serious MVP candidates.

Much of the group think on the Blazer boards seems to be that we should give up on Oden. I disagree.

He has already had one microfracture, and in fact all of his NBA career is post-microfracture. I believe that his microfractured knee hasn't given him any problems since the surgery, and team medical staff characterize that knee as stronger than before the surgery.

So how has he performed in his time on the court, with one microfractured knee? Pretty outstanding, if you look at his advanced stats. The following summarizes Oden’s performance on the court to date:

* Greg Oden is one of the two best players to come into the NBA in the last ten years according to comprehensive advanced statistics: PER and WS/48. (Hint: the other is LeBron).
* Greg Oden’s second year advanced stats compare favorably with those of the all-time great centers of the last thirty years: Shaq, David Robinson, Hakeem (and Dwight Howard).
* Greg Oden's rookie year rebounding compares well with the rookie years of some of the greatest rebounders of all time.
* Greg Oden was a top five big man – or better – when he was on the court last year.
* Greg Oden’s 2009-2010 advanced statistics compare well with those of three-time NBA all-star, two-time NBA defensive player of the year, three-time all-NBA team member Dwight Howard.

See http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/9/12...rt-performance

Again, all of this happened after microfracture. Hopefully, today's surgery will go well, and Greg will fully recover, as he did with his other knee. I wish him the best!

An article in the Ohio State newspaper states that Blazer "team officials said Oden is looking at a late November rreturn".

http://www.thelantern.com/sports/giant-disappointment-greg-oden-hasn-t-lived-up-to-his-nba-hype-but-says-it-s-not-his-fault-1.1737402

Depending on how you define late November, this means he would miss 15-17 games at the beginning of the season, and so potentially could play in 65-67 games this season.

Get excited, Blazer fans!!! 

Get ready to eat crow, bust declarers!  I like Greg's attitude toward the naysayers in this article.  This is Greg Oden, whose on court performance to date has ranked with the all time great centers:

"Advanced statistics indicate that when he has been on the court, he has been one of the two best players to enter the league this decade, that he compares favorably to the greatest centers of the last thirty years, and that he compares favorably to the greatest rebounders of all time.  This indicates that if he can be relatively injury-free, and get his fouling under control, he just might be that once in a generation center he was hyped to be.

The following summarizes Oden’s performance on the court to date:

• Greg Oden is one of the two best players to come into the NBA in the last ten years according to comprehensive advanced statistics.  (Hint: the other is LeBron).
• Greg Oden’s second year advanced stats compare favorably with those of the all-time great centers of the last thirty years: Shaq, David Robinson, Hakeem (and Dwight Howard).
• Greg Oden's rookie year rebounding compares well with the rookie years of some of the greatest rebounders of all time.
• Greg Oden was a top five big man – or better – when he was on the court last year.
• Greg Oden’s 2009-2010 advanced statistics compare well with those of three-time NBA all-star, two-time NBA defensive player of the year, three-time all-NBA team member Dwight Howard.
• Greg Oden was ranked higher in more advanced statistical categories last year than NBA scoring leader Kevin Durant, the 1st team all-NBA team player the Trail Blazers could have taken instead"

See this link for details:

http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/9/12/1684146/greg-odens-on-court-performance for details.

The computer simulations think very highly of Portland's chances this year.

Basketball Prospectus has the Blazers first in the West, with 55 wins, a 35% chance of winning the Western Conference championship, and an 18% chance of winning the NBA championship. We are second only to Miami, which wins 58 games, has a 53% chance of winning the Eastern conference championship, and a 37% chance of winning the NBA championship.

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/...articleid=1219

Basketball-Reference.com has the Blazers 2nd in the West, with 57 wins, a 32% chance of winning the Western Conference championship, and an 10% chance of winning the NBA championship. In the West, we are second only to the Lakers, which also wins 57 games, has a 35% chance of winning the Eastern conference championship, and a 11% chance of winning the NBA championship. In the East, we are behind Miami (64, 67%, 53%) and Orlando (58, 19%, 12%).

http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7896

Maybe our championship window is NOW!

The assembly of Miami’s “superteam” brought together three of the best players in the league.  LeBron James and Dwayne Wade had the two highest PERs in the league last year, and Chris Bosh was fourth.   A team with the two best wings and the best big man (according to PER) should never lose, right?

The mirror image of these high PERs is high “usage rates” (USG%) an advanced statistic that measures the percent of a team’s possessions “used” by a player while on the court.  Wade and James were one-two in USG%, and Bosh was tenth.  Each was the top dog on their respective teams, and DWade and LeBron were the league’s top alphas.

Statistically, DWade had a USG% of 34.9%, LeBron had a USG% of 33.5%, and Bosh had a USG% of 28.7%.  Among the sixteen playoff teams, only Melo, Kobe, and Durant, in addition to Dwade and LeBron, had USG% in excess of 30%.  Perhaps not coincidentally, these are the players that are considered to be MVP candidates.  Outside of these MVP-candidate superstars, the alphas of playoff teams typically range from 29% to 25%.  The median for a team’s alpha is 28%.

The “beta” or second dog has a median of 24%, with seven teams exceeding 25% and the rest at 23-24%.

The “gamma” or third dog has a median of 22%, with seven teams exceeding 23% and the rest below 23%.
                                
Based on last year’s USG%, DWade is Miami’s alpha, LeBron their beta, and Bosh their gamma.  If this dog pack were to share the ball at playoff team median levels, DWade USG% would have to drop from 35% to 28%.  He’d have to decrease his “alpha-ness” by 20%.  LeBron would have to accept “beta-ness” and reduce his USG% from 33% to 24%, or decrease his “alpha-ness” by 28%.  Bosh would have accept a drop from alpha dog to gamma dog, and reduce his USG% from 29% to 22%, a drop in “alpha-ness” of 23%.  So three of the top four PER players in the league would have to decrease their “alpha-ness” by at least 20%.

The playoff team with the highest concentration of total USG% for its alpha, beta, and gamma players as a combination was Denver, which totaled 84%.  Miami’s alpha dog pack totaled 96%.  So if Miami were to equal the most concentrated playoff team, as a group they would have to reduce USG% by 12%.  Under this scenario, DWade would drop to 30.5%, LeBron to 29.3%, and Bosh to 25.1%.

Generally, PER is roughly proportional to USG%: high PER players have high USG%.  So Miami is asking these three top alphas in the league to effectively reduce their PERs by 12% to as much as 28%.  LeBron’s PER could range from 22.4 (Manu Ginobli) to 27.4 (DWade).  DWade’s PER could range from 22.4 (Manu Ginobli) to 24.6 (Tim Duncan).  Bosh’s PER would be about 22.0 (David Lee).  These are generally great but not superstar numbers.

If contending for an MVP requires a USG% above 32% – Dwade, LeBron, Melo, Kobe, and Durant were above this level last year – both LeBron and Dwade would fall short, even in the best scenario, in which they were about 30% each.

It will interesting to see how the alpha egos accept dropping out of the top spots in the league.  What if LeBron drops to third or even twelth in the “PER race?”  How would Dwade deal with dropping to seventh or twelfth in the league?  How about Bosh dropping to fourteenth in PER, and dropping statistically to the eighth best big man in the league?  What if none of them put up MVP numbers (>32% USG%)?

It will be interesting to see how these alphas meld on the court.  If they are as dominant as expected, I imagine that the PER sacrifice will not be a problem.  But if dominance expectations are not met, alpha ego flare ups might make great blog fodder!

Greg Oden is an enigmatic player to evaluate.  He came into the league hyped as a once in a generation center.  His play has been most noted for the trouble he has had staying on the court due to injuries (82 games played in three years, two knee operations) and foul trouble (6.4 fouls per 36 minutes for his career).  He was supposed to challenge Dwight Howard as the next dominant center.  He was chosen over Kevin Durant, who led the league in scoring in his third year and has missed ten games in three years.

What do advanced statistics say about Oden’s play when he is on the court?  When he has been on the court, has he played like a once in a generation center?  How does he compare to Dwight Howard and Kevin Durant, two players to whom he likely will always be compared?

Analyzing advanced statistics from Basketball-Reference.com reveals that in his playing time on the court, he has played exceptionally well, and that he holds his own against both Dwight Howard and Kevin Durant.  This may surprise many who have focused on his problems staying on the court.

Advanced statistics indicate that when he has been on the court, he has been one of the two best players to enter the league this decade, that he compares favorably to the greatest centers of the last thirty years, and that he compares favorably to the greatest rebounders of all time.  This indicates that if he can be relatively injury-free, and get his fouling under control, he just might be that once in a generation center he was hyped to be.

The following summarizes Oden’s performance on the court to date:

• Greg Oden is one of the two best players to come into the NBA in the last ten years according to comprehensive advanced statistics.  (Hint: the other is LeBron).
• Greg Oden’s second year advanced stats compare favorably with those of the all-time great centers of the last thirty years: Shaq, David Robinson, Hakeem (and Dwight Howard).
• Greg Oden's rookie year rebounding compares well with the rookie years of some of the greatest rebounders of all time.
• Greg Oden was a top five big man – or better – when he was on the court last year.
• Greg Oden’s 2009-2010 advanced statistics compare well with those of three-time NBA all-star, two-time NBA defensive player of the year, three-time all-NBA team member Dwight Howard.
• Greg Oden was ranked higher in more advanced statistical categories last year than NBA scoring leader Kevin Durant, the 1st team all-NBA team player the Trail Blazers could have taken instead.

Go below the Jump for the details...

Continue reading this post »

Oden was amazingly effective when he was on the court last year.  Oden had the 2nd highest PER of any second-year player in the last ten years, behind only LeBron. The rest of the top ten in order: DWade, CP3, Yao, Steve Francis, Kirilenko, Shawn Marion, Boozer, and Durant.

The list essentially breaks down into 3 tiers:
LeBron 25.7
Oden and DWade 23.1
CP3 22.0 to Durant 20.8

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tiny.cgi?id=mSnTo

Greg is now entering his third year.   Let’s look at what the other nine players on this list did in their third years.

LeBron: 1st team all-NBA, PER +2.4
DWade: 2nd team all-NBA, PER +4.5
CP3: 1st team all-NBA, PER +6.3
Yao: 3rd team all-NBA, PER +1.3
Francis: all-star, PER -2.5 (missed 25 games)
Kirilenko: all-NBA 2nd team defensive, PER +1.5
Marion: no honors. PER -1.2
Boozer: no honors, PER -1.6 (missed 31 games)
Durant: all-NBA 1st team. PER +5.4

Six of these players made an all-NBA team, one more made the all-star game, and only two didn’t make the all-star game.  So when Greg says he’s preparing to make the all-star game, it is a reasonable goal.

Incidentally, all five of the Blazers starters appear high on the list:
Oden 2, 1st among centers
Miller 16, 3rd among PGs (CP3, Francis)
Roy 20, 3rd among 2-guards (dWade, Redd)
Aldridge 30, 10th among PF
Batum 40, 5th among SF (LeBron, Kirilenko, Marion, Gay)

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If CP3 wants out, and New Orleans makes taking Omeka Okafor a requirement, how do the Blazers stack up against the other teams Paul has identified: New York, Orlando, and Dallas? I dug into ESPN's trade checker, and here is what I found.

NO wants expiring contracts and cheap young talent, both of which the Blazers are well situated to provide. For the Blazers, it's fairly simple, with a number of variations:

Miller/Pryz matches CP3, and Camby matches Okafor. We'd prefer not to include Camby, but he is essential to matching Okafor's salary. Okafor is a decent center, with a 16.5 PER last year and similar offensive rebounding and block stats to Camby. Camby's better (O Rating 112 / D Rating101 vs 110/106 for Okafor), but Okafor is 6 years younger. Okafor has played exclusively at center for the past few years, so he might not be able to back up LMA like Camby can.

As far as young talent, Portland can include any one, two, or three of Batum, Bayless, Cunningham, Fernandez, and Pendergraph. It's Rich Cho's challenge to minimize the outflow of talent, especially Batum.

From NO's perspective, they get the young talent and the only salary that extends beyond this season is Camby's $12 million for one more year.

Acquiring CP3 without affecting the Roy/Aldridge/Oden core would give us a powerful team that could compete for a championship: best point guard (at worst 2nd), third best 2-guard, arguably 2nd best center if healthy, dynamic and better than average power forward, and if we are lucky, Batum, an emerging talent and premier defender.

New York really could not practically trade for CP3 and Okafor. They'd have to trade 8 players (Curry, Douglas, Gallinari, Randolph, Walker, Chandler, Azubuike, and Turiaf). Only Walker has a 2 year deal, the rest 1 year, which could be attractive to NO. But it only leaves Stoudemire, Felton, and rookie center Mozguv to play with CP3 and Okafor. Stripped the cupboard too bare in pursuing LeBron the Decisionator.

Orlando can do this with Vince Carter, Pietrus, Brandon Bass, and one or both of 2nd year Ryan Anderson and rookie Daniel Orton. But the first three contracts run for one more year after this year, and total nearly $50 million. So Portland has both better young talent to offer and $38 million in contract savings. Orlando can't do this without VC, except by using 3-4 year contracts, which NO most likely wouldn't want.

Dallas has several scenarios that work. The one-year contracts of Caron Butler, 10-year 2-guard DeShawn Stevenson, one of the Jason's (Kidd or Terry) 2-year contracts, and Beaubois for young talent. After this year, the Jason contracts are $9-10 million, and they get Beaubois, a PG who is at the same position as NO's best young player, Collison. So NO saves a $2-3 million over Camby, but gets young talent and at a position they don't need it. And they would have Bird rights to Butler.

Dallas' second scenario is both Jasons, Stevenson, and Beaubois. This costs $7 million more than Camby and has the same young talent problem.

Ideally, we could get CP3 without taking on Okafor, But if we have to, the Blazers are well situated to compete favorably with CP3's other selected teams. New York flat out doesn't work, choosing Orlando costs NO $38 million and offers lesser young talent, and Dallas provides either very minor outyear cost savings or a modest outyear cost increase with lesser young talent at a position redundant to NO.

So if you define the CP3 sweepstakes game as including Okafor and only the teams CP3 has mentioned, Portland should win. Only Dallas can compete in salary dumping, and they can only offer one young player (ignoring another point guard, JJ Barea) who doesn't fit with NO's needs.

Given this, in this game, hopefully Cho can land CP3 without sacrificing Batum, which would be the optimal outcome.

Oden's second year was cut short by injury, and he had barely seemed to get into a groove before he went down.  However, statistically, he had one of the most outstanding sophomore seasons among centers in the NBA over the past thirty years.  The bottom line is that, statistically (on a per minute basis which ignores his injury and foul problems) he was competitive with Shaq, Robinson, and Hakeem -- the all-time great centers of the last 3 decades --  ranking above them in many stat categories important to centers.  He was significantly better than Howard.

I went to basketball-reference.com, and searched for 2nd year centers since 1980 that played more than 20 games and more than 20 minutes/game.  There were 211 players on the list.

I looked at advanced stat categories that you want a center to do well in:

• Overall: PER, Win Shares/48 Minutes
• Offense: TS%, EFG%, ORtg
  
• Rebounding: ORB%, DRB%, TRB%
• Defense: BLK%, DRtg

The tables below show how Oden ranked, as well as how the all-time great centers --  Shaq, David Robinson, and Hakeem -- ranked in their second seasons.  I also included Dwight Howard as today's greatest center.

• Table 1 shows the absolute ranking of Oden and the other four centers among the 211 centers on the list.
• Table 2 shows where each of the five centers ranked when compared among themselves: 1 thru 5.
• Table 3 shows the number of 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th places for each of the five great centers.

Key conclusions:

• Oden had the 4th best sophomore season stats based on PER, behind only Shaq, Robinson, and Hakeem.  Oden was also 4th in WS/48, behind Robinson and Shaq.
  
•  Oden ranked well above Howard in all categories except rebounding, where they were both in the top 4.
• Oden shot better than all four other centers.
• Oden outrebounded the other centers, except defensively, where he was slightly behind Howard.
• Oden was a better shot blocker than all four other centers.
• Oden was better than all but Shaq in ORtg.
• Oden was better than all but Robinson in DRtg.
• Oden was 1st in 5 categories and 2nd in 3 more categories, meaning he was 1st or 2nd in 8 of the 10 categories.  Robinson had 2 1st and 3 2nd, while Shaq had 2 1st and 2 2nd.
• While Oden was generally the best of the bunch in terms of most high rankings, Howard was the worst, with 6 5th places. 

Table 1: Oden and Other Great Centers Ranking Among 211 Second Year Centers

We're all bummed by Greg's injuries and to a lesser extent his foul problems. The former are hopefully freak and not chronic, and he'll have paid his injury dues and have a number of mostly healthy seasons. The fouls he can improve with experience.

If he can stay on the court, he is one of the best big men in the league.

Last year, of players 6'9" and above playing more than 20 minutes per game and more than 20 games, Oden ranked quite high:

PER #5, behind Bosh, Duncan, Howard, ahead of Dirk, Pau, and Amare

Total Shot %: #1

Effective FG%: #3

Offensive Rebound %: #1 (30% more ORB/minute than Howard)

Defensive Rebound %: #9

Total Rebound %: #3 (behind Camby and Howard)

Block %: #1 (28% more blocks/minute than Howard)

Offensive Rating: #11, ahead of Amare, Dirk, Duncan, and Howard

Defensive Rating: #4, tied with Rasheed, ahead of Camby, Duncan, Noah

So last year, pretty darn good.

Oden has played the equivalent to one season: 82 games (unfortunately over 3 years). Here's how he stacks up against other current big men after their first (approximately) 82 games using PER:

Oden 19.5

Howard 17.2

Durant 15.8

Garnett 15.8

Bosh 15.1

So statistically, for the amount of time he's played on the court, he is playing better than Durant, Howard, Garnett, and Bosh were after an equivalent number of games in the league.

I'd say he's a keeper, and will go on to surpass Howard as the best center in the league.  I get outraged at the "bust" label.  He's been "busted up," but not a "bust."

I find it outrageous that some so-called knowledgeable fans on various Blazer bulletin boards characterize Oden as a bust that should be traded. On the contrary, he is right up with Dwight Howard in terms of center performance on a per minute basis.

Let's compare him to Dwight Howard, the best center in the league. The stats below are from Basketball-Reference.com. They show the key areas want to be strengths for your center: shooting, rebounding, and blocking. And they show some overall stats: PER, offensive and defensive ratings, and win shares per minute.

These show two players that are quite close in on-court performance.  If I reversed the numbers for the two players, it wouldn't be screamingly evident.

Player      PER    TS%  eFG%    ORB% DRB% TRB% BLK% ORtg DRtg   WS/48

Howard    24.0   .630   .612        12.0     31.0      22.0     8.7      113     95      0.223

Oden        23.1   .647   .605        15.6      28.3     21.9     6.7      118    100     0.214

RANK IN NBA (AMONG PLAYERS WITH > 20 MINUTES/GAME)

Player      PER    TS%   eFG%    ORB% DRB% TRB% BLK% ORtg DRtg WS/48

Howard    6          5         2             11         2          2          4           49      1       4

Oden        8          1         3               1          7          3          1           17      4       8

The main difference between the players is minutes played. For Greg, it's injuries – not his fault – and fouls. And look at Howard's foul-plagued minutes in this year's playoffs.

So when you bang on Oden and express Durant remorse, please do it with the knowledge that Oden has a Dwight Howard-like impact on the game when he plays. That's Dwight Howard, the three time NBA all-star, two-time NBA defensive player of the year, three-time all-NBA team member, and starting center for our country's Olympic team!

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The Blazers victory over the Suns in game 1 on the road was fantastic.  No team deserves a series win more than the Blazers, given that all the challenges the team has faced -- and met -- this season.  This win greatly increases the chances that we win the series. And I think – and fervently hope – that we will prevail.  But we by no means have a commanding lead.

We've heard the “winner of the first game wins the series 79% of the time” over the past few days. However, history shows that the Blazers still face an uphill battle, despite seizing home court advantage. I researched all first round matchups where the underdog won the first game on the road since 2003, when the NBA went to the 7 game first round format.

There have been 16 first game upsets over this time period. The lower seed has gone on to win 7 and lose 9 of these series, for a series winning percentage of 44%. So you could say that the “underdog winner of the first game of a seven game first round series goes on to win the series 44% of the time.”

There is a noticeable split between the 5th-6th seeds and the 7th-8th seeds. The former have a series record of 6-4 (60%), while the latter have a series record of 1-5 (17%).  So you could say that the “7th-8th seed winner of the first game of a seven game first round series goes on to win 17% of the time.”

To summarize, eight years of NBA playoff first round history shows us that:

79% of first game winners go on to win the series

44% of underdog first game winners go on to win series

17% of 7th-8th seed first game winners go on to win series.

This is sobering, and presents a far different picture than the 79% "commanding lead" number. Our winning the series is by no means a “lock” as this percentage would indicate. Far from it, according to history. The Blazers still have either slightly less than fifty-fifty odds (44%), or quite long odds (17%) of advancing.

Despite these odds, I believe that the Blazers will prevail. But we are facing a strong headwind, and we'll have to play our best to win, especially since we are playing without our All-Star. If any team can do it, this Blazers team can.

GO BLAZERS!!!

PS - It is with mixed emotions that I post this somewhat downer info at this time of great elation.  But I think it is important to more fully understand the odds of the situation, and how special our victory will be!

In 2007, the Blazers beat the odds, won the lottery, and had the first pick in the draft.  There was a great debate about who was the better pick, with two once-in-a-decade players.  According to basketball-reference.com, the player they could have taken leads the league in three "advanced" statistical categories, is 2nd in the league in two, is in the top 10 in three others, and is in the top 15 in one other. 

You might presume that the player I'm talking about is Kevin Durant, given the season he's having.  But I'm talking about Greg Oden, the player that we did choose.

This year, Oden ranks first in ORB%, TRB%, and BLK%; 2nd in TS% and EFG%; 5th in DRTG; 6th in DRB%; 8th in PER; and 13 in ORTG.

In comparison, Durant ranks 3rd in PER, 16th in TS%, 26th in ORTG, 25th in DRTG, 2nd in OWS, and 6th in FT%.

Oden achieves his 23.2 PER with a Usage Rate of 20.8%.  His PER/Usage Rate ratio is 1.12

Durant achieves his 25.7 PER with a Usage Rate of 31.9%, for a PER/Usage Rate ratio of 0.81.

Oden is one of three players among the top 25 PER players with a PER/Usage Rate ratio greater than 1.00. The others are Chris Paul at 1.07 and Pau Gasol at 1.05.

LeBron has a ratio of 0.93, D Wade has a ratio of 0.81, Dwight Howard has a ratio of 0.99, Carmelo has a ratio of 0.67, B Roy has a ratio of 0.80, and Kobe has a ratio of 0.68.

All of these indicate that Oden is incredibly effective when he's on the court.  If he can avoid the injuries and fouls, he can be one of the most dominant players in the league.

Greg Oden's injury was a huge blow to the Blazers.  While the media and many fans focus most on his injury history, here I'll focus on his on-court performance as captured by statistics taken from Basketball-Reference.com.  Sometimes I forget how good he was playing before the injury.  This helps remind me.

I've got two comparisons.  The first compares him to Dwight Howard, considered by most to be the best of today's centers.  This comparison shows their rankings among the NBA's best this year (among players averaging more than 20 minutes per game).  Both are fantastic players.  Greg bests Howard in six of the eight categories below.

Greg Oden's Rank is NBA

2009-2010 Season, As Of All-Star Break

                                                                 Oden Howard

Blocks per 36 minutes                        1st        4th

Field goal percentage                          2nd     3rd

Offensive rebounds per 36 minutes 2nd     11th

True shooting percentage                   5th      9th

Total rebounds per 36 minutes         6th        2nd

Defensive rating                                    8th      1st

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PER                                                         8th    10th

Offensive rating                                   29th    71st

The second comparison is based on an indicator I developed: net offensive minus defensive rating. For Greg, his ORtg is 119 and his DRtg is 101, so the difference is 18.  That is what is shown in the table below.   Only eight players in the league have a net rating greater than 15.  Oden is tied with Tim Duncan for third place in the league, two places ahead of Howard.  Pau Gasol tops the list.  Notice Nicolas Batum on the list as well!

Offensive Rating Minus Defensive Rating

Pau Gasol                 20

Anderson Varajao   19

Tim Duncan             18

Greg Oden               18

Andrew Bynum        17

Dwight Howard       16

Nicolas Batum        16

Marc Gasol              16

Greg is a great player.  I wish him well in his recovery and look forward to continued improvement next year.

emember last year, and "when Oden plays more than 20 minutes, the Blazers are really good?"  It made me wonder about how Bayless is performing this year when he gets 20+ minutes.  The answer: outstanding.

Let's look at the month of December, when Nate decided to give him more time.  He's had six games where he's played more than 20 minutes.  His averages:

Minutes: 28.7

Points: 17.7

FTA: 7.3

FG%: 44%

3P%: 44%

Assists: 2.7

TO: 1.5

AST/TO: 1.8

Extrapolating to 36 minutes gives 22.2 points/game and 9.2 FTA.  This would place him tied for 6th among guards for scoring with Brandon, and 3rd among guards for fouls drawn, behing D Wade and Keving Martin.

So Jerryd has been playing super this month, and is really just getting started!

And by the way, it is translating into wins, with a 5-1 record during these games.

The Blazers beat San Antonio not only shorthanded, but with an incredibly unbalanced team.  We had (and have) no centers, both of our SGs were out injured.  We had Aldridge, Howard, Pendergraph, and Cunningham, all PFs.  And Bayless, Miller, and Blake, all PGs.  And Martell as our only SF.  So we did this with one wing player and no centers.  And the only player who didn't play is a D-League call up, also a PF.

Truly a remarkable victory, especially since San Antonio played well themselves.  Oh yeah, it was on the road as well, on the second night of back-to-backs.  It's mystifying as to how did we did it.  Fantastic job Blazers!!  Merry Christmas.

Travis gets criticized for not being a good PF.  While he's not your classic banger, let's look at how he compares to Rashard Lewis, another PF with a similar body morph and style.  In fact, guess which player is which, based on basketball-reference.com comparison for last year.

This is organized by: stat, Player A, Player B.  Is Player A or Player B Outlaw?  The answer after the jump.

FGA/36: 13.7 13.6

FG%: .439 .453

3P%: .397 .377

FTA/36: 3.4 3.9

TRB/36: 5.7 5.3

PTS/36: 17.6 16.6

AST%: 12.5 6.3

TOV%; 11.6% 8.9%

USG%: 22.0 22.0

Continue reading this post »

In the last 74 minutes Greg has been on the court, he has picked up a total of 3 fouls!

He had 1 last night against the Suns in 29 minutes.
He had 1 against the Clippers in 21 minutes.
He had 1 in his last 24 minutes of playing time against Sacramento.  (He had 3 for the game, 2 in the first two minutes.)

This is probably the best news out of the Blazer preseason.

By the way, during these 74 minutes, his per 36 minute average was 21.4 points, 14.6 rebounds (with 4.0 offensive rebounds).  That's pretty good.

Keep it up, Greg!!!

I think Oden's best 5-game stretch last year gives a preview of what we can expect as he moves towards his potential.  He had 5 games in January (Jan 19 - Jan 28) where he played decent minutes and played well during those minutes.  We played Mil, Cle, Was, LAC, and Cha during that stretch, all but the Clips at home.

During these games he averaged 31 minutes 16.4 points and 11.4 rebounds.  Normalized to 36 minutes gives 19.0 and 13.2 rebounds.  For comparison's sake, it wasn't until Dwight Howard's 4th year in the league (07-08) that he averaged 19.8 and 13.5 per 36 minutes.

Two things really jump out about Greg's performance during this five game stretch: offensive rebounding and shooting.

He averaged 6.7 o-rebounds per 36 (5.8 in the 31 minutes he played).  This is phenomenal.  In the best rebounding season Moses Malone ever had, he averaged 6.6 o-rebounds per 36.  This was a year in which he had 573 o-rebounds.  For comparison, Howard led the league last year with 336.

Oden also shot .659 (29/44) from the field and .649 (24/37) from the line during this stretch.  This works out to a True Shooting % of 0.786.  The all time leader in TS% over the last 25 years is Tim Legler during 95/96, at 0.688.  And the leader over the last 10 years is Amare Stoudemire during 07/08, at 0.656.  Oden during this stretch shattered those records.

Usually, I wouldn't take a five game stretch and put much store in it, but I think it has relevance for several reasons.  Oden was a rookie, he was recovering from microfracture surgery, he was never in shape, and he was hurt twice during the year.  This was the one stretch in which he played closest to his  potential.  I don't think anyone thinks that Greg LOOKED good out there last year.  But his statistics belie that: during the time on the court, he was incredibly effective.  It's not unreasonable to expect a much more effective Oden this year, with the sophomore performance jump, the almost full recovery from the knee surgery, and starting the year in good basketball shape.  The stats from the his best 5 game stretch last year give us a preview of what he'll become over time.  I would not be surprised to see him average 31 minutes, 16.4 points, and 11.4 rebounds this season.

Greg Oden is characterized as a bust by many uneducated or biased members of the media.  On the contrary, when he was on the court, he had one of the best rookie seasons of any center to come into the league in the last 25 years.  We all know he was still recovering from microfracture surgery, never in shape, and injured twice during the year.  He fouled alot, which kept him out of games.  This is what the uneducated or biased observers focus on.

Let's focus on his offense, on the time he was on the court.  He gets characterized as raw and of limited effectiveness.  We'll compare him to the rookie years of other centers.  What do you want out of your center on offense?  I say two things: offensive rebounds and efficient shooting. 

Let's first compare Oden first to the greatest all-NBA centers to come into the league from 1984 thru 1999: Shaq, Hakeem, Robinson, and Ewing.  These players were all-NBA centers (top 3 centers in league) a combined total of 43 times, or an average of 11 times each.  Here's how Oden stacks up against these all-time greats in terms of offensive rebounding percentage:

• Hakeem 16.9%
• Oden 15.7%
• Shaq 13.4%
• Robinson 11.7%
• Ewing 7.6%

So Oden was 2nd only to Hakeem amongst this illustrious group, and outstripped Shaq, Robinson, and Ewing.

Let's look now at shooting, using true shooting %, which factors in free throw shooting, as the metric.  Here's the results:

• Oden 0.599
• Robinson 0.597
• Shaq 0.584
• Olajuwon 0.564
• Ewing 0.526

So Oden tops this list, again bettering Shaq and Robinson, and the rest of these 11-time all-NBAers.

Let's see, Oden the bust, coming in 2nd on o-rebounding and 1st in true shooting accuracy, against the four best centers of the last 25 years.

Now let's compare Oden to the top two post-2000 centers: Yao Ming and Dwight Howard.  As far as o-rebounding:

• Oden 15.7%
• Howard 12.2%
• Ming 9.7%

So Oden's o-rebounding rate is 29% better than Howard's and far outstrips Ming's.

As far as shooting:

• Oden 0.599
• Howard 0.571
• Ming 0.570
  

Again, Oden is above his peers, the best Eastern and Western conference centers.

And remember, Oden did all of this -- placing highly against 11-time all-NBA centers and outstripping his two best peers -- while recovering from microfracture surgery, never in shape, and injured twice during the year.

GO GREG, GO BLAZERS!!!

UPDATE STARTS HERE

I've seen the comments about the other players being more of a focus on offense than Oden.  This is mostly true.  It is reflected in the Usage Percentage (USG%) metric.  It represents the percent of a teams offensive plays that involves a player while on the court.  It factors in field goal attempts, free throw attempts, and turnovers.

The USG% for the players are:

Shaq 27.0%

Robinson 26.6%

Ewing 26.5%

Hakeem 23.5%

Ming 22.1%

Oden 19.3%

Howard 16.7%

Oden is toward the bottom of the list.  His team ran the offense thru him only about 2/3 as often as did Shaq's, Robinson's, and Ewing's.

Let's now look at what the players did with the offensive opportunities they got.  The first metric I developed is PER/USG%.  PER is an overall measure of effectiveness, especially offensive, per minute played.  Here's how this metric works out:

Howard 1.030

Robinson 0.989

Oden 0.938

Ming 0.932

Hakeem 0.898

Shaq 0.848

Ewing 0.657

So Oden didn't have as much of the offense run thru him, but he is 3rd in this metric, and did well with the opportunities he was presented.

Another metric that tries to get at the same thing is points per 36 minutes plus o-rebounds per 36 minutes, divided bu USG%.  This tries to factor in scoring and o-rebounds, and adjust it for offensive opportunities.  These are the two factors I think are key for a center on offense.  The results are:

Hakeem 1.119

Robinson 1.034

Howard 1.024

Oden 1.005

Shaq 0.970

Ming 0.891

Ewing 0.860

You can see that Oden is in the middle of the pack, and above Shaq, Ming, and Ewing, and within 3% of Howard and Robinson.  So again, Oden did alright with the offensive opportunities he was presented.

Our almost-Blazer-but-bolted-at-the-altar was not outstanding at Eurobasket.  10 points per game, with 33% shooting on 2s and 33% shooting on 3s.  One rebound every 7 minutes.  As many turnovers as assists.

Nicolas got as many points and rebounds while shooting 54% on 2s and 38% on 3s.

I guess we dodged the bullet!

http://www.eurobasket2009.org/en/cid_toT,ovGDH2EaLKL67XnPo2.teamID_376.compID_qMRZdYCZI6EoANOrUf9le2.season_2009.roundID_6328.playerID_21687.html

http://www.eurobasket2009.org/en/cid_toT,ovGDH2EaLKL67XnPo2.teamID_282.compID_qMRZdYCZI6EoANOrUf9le2.season_2009.roundID_6328.playerID_47811.html

The goal of this plan is to best cluster team to minimize travel for three reasons: costs, wear and tear, and environment.  This proposal keeps the same 15 teams in the East and the same 15 teams in the West.  It is accomplished by executing two "trades" between divisions.

Just some division name changes in the East:

• Rename the Atlantic Division the Northeast Division.  Teams are: Boston, New York, New Jersey, Philly, Toronto

• Rename the Central Division the Midwest Division.  Teams are: Cleveland, Detroit, Indiana, Chicago, Milwaukee

• No change to Southeast Division. Teams are: Miami, Orlando, Atlanta, Charlotte, Washington

More changes in the West, both to division names and to the teams in them

• Rename Southwest Division the Central Division, and substitute Minnesota for San Antonio.  Teams are: Minnesota, Memphis, New Orleans, Houston, Dallas.  These are central time zone teams that are on or fairly close to the Mississippi River, the center of America.
  

• Rename the Northwest Division the Southwest Division, and substitute San Antonio for Minnesota and Phoenix for Portland. Teams are: San Antonio, OKC, Denver, Utah, Phoenix.  These are the desert area teams.
  

• Keep Pacific Division name, and substitute Portland for Phoenix: Lakers, Clippers, Sacramento, Golden State, Portland.  this gets all of the Pacific time zone teams together.

The bottom line is that Portland and Phoenix trade divisions, and Minnesota and San Antonio trade divisions.  The result is a much more rational alignment.

According to ESPN's poll of NBA columnists, the Blazers are the sixth best team, following the Lakers, Cavs, Celtics, Magic, and Spurs.  These are the teams that have played in the finals for the last 3 years.  So the Blazers are expected to be the best team that hasn't played in the NBA finals since 2007.

Since these teams have been competing at the highest level for several years, they are somewhat older than the Blazers.  Let's look at the ages of their core five players in three years to see how we stack up at that time.

Lakers: 24 (Bynum), 32 (Artest), 32 (Gasol), 34 (Kobe), 38 (Fisher).  Kobe would be past prime but still potent, Gasol and Artest would be declining, Fisher would be out of the league.  Only Bynum would be young, entering his prime, and a likely all-star.

Cavs: 27 (LeBron), 29 (Williams), 29 (West), 29 (Varajao), 40 (Shaq).  LeBron would be at his MVP peak, with all but Shaq in their primes.  Shaq would be retired.

Celtics: 26 (Rondo), 27 (Perkins), 34 (Pierce), 36 (Garnett), 37 (Allen).  Allen and Garnett would likely be out of the league or bench specialists, with Pierce past prime but still potent.  Rondo -- likely all-star -- and Perkins would be in their primes.

Magic: 26 (Howard), 27 (Bass), 30 (Nelson), 33 (Lewis), 35 (Carter).  Carter and Lewis would be declining, with Howard -- leagues top center if Oden isn't -- Bass and Nelson in their primes.

Spurs: 30 (Parker), 32 (Jefferson), 35 (Ginobili), 36 (Duncan), 38 (McDyess).  Duncan, McDyess, and Ginobili would likely be out of the league or bench specialists.  Parker and Jefferson would be late prime.

Blazers: 23 (Batum; or 25 Webster), 24 (Oden), 27 (Aldridge), 28 (Roy), 36 (Miller).  Oden and Batum/Webster would just be hitting their primes, while Roy and Aldridge would be in their early primes.  Miller would be out of the league or a backup specialist.

So the Blazers -- with Roy, Oden, Aldridge, and Batum/Webster all in their primes -- would face the Bynum/Old Kobe/Old All Star Lakers, the LeBron plus three in their prime OK but not great sidekicks Cavs, the Rondo/Perkins/who knows who else Celtics, the Howard/Nelson/Bass Magic, and the Parker/Jefferson Spurs.  Of these teams, the Cavs and Magic would be the biggest competition, with the others a good bit behind.

So the prospects for a Blazer dynasty are pretty good, when compared with the recent playoff finalists.  Go Blazers!

Hollinger has Oden's PER increasing by about one point.  "Trending Up: Greg Oden. Last season: 18.13, PER 2009-10 projection: 19.11 PER."  Looking at the history of PER jump from rookie year to 2nd year for a bunch of noteworthy big men, the average 2nd year PER jump is 2.5.  This would take Oden's PER to over 20 (20.63).  This would be better than Dwight Howard's 2nd year PER.

There typically is a jump in scoring from rookie to 2nd year when looking on a per 36 minute basis.  For example, Howard went from 13.2 pts/36 minutes to 15.4, while Yao Ming went from 16.7 to 19.1.  These are increases of 2.2 and 2.4, respectively.  If you add the 2.3 average to Oden's rookie year number, you go from 14.8 to 17.1.  So it's not unreasonable to think that Oden would score 17 points if he plays full starter minutes.

As far as rebounding, Oden is already a phenomemal offensive rebounder.  His got 4.6 o-rebounds per 36 last year.  He also had 7.0 d-rebounds per 36, for a total of 11.6.  Howard increased his d-rebounds by 1.5 per 36 in his second year.  Such an increase would take Oden to 8.5 d-rebounds and 13.1 total rebounds per 36.  If Oden increases his d-rebounds to Pryzbilla's level (9.5 per 36), it would add another 1.0, for a total of 14.1 rebounds.

So Greg could be a 17/13 player is he plays 36 minutes!

Oden's big challenge will be staying on the court, given his foul problems last year.  This should improve with experience and being in better shape.  If he plays 30 minutes, the 17/13 scales to 15/11.

I am going into this season quite optimistic that Oden "surprises" us with what is perceived to be a breakout year.  He might be a candidate for most improved, if he lives up to these figures, which are based upon historical trends on top of his rookie year performance. 

He might even make a bigger jump than the averages used in this analysis.  Some players do: it's the nature of averages.  Two factors supporting a greater jump are 1) Greg will be in better shape and one more year removed from microfracture surgery, and 2) Andre Miller and his ability to get big men the ball in scoring position.  If he does this, the Blazers are deep into the playoffs!!!

The Blazers have great prospects for a deep playoff run this year.  

Remember how our incredibly young team played last year in the face of what many call the most difficult schedule ever.  54 wins.  This with our starting small forward out for the season and our #1 draft pick center coming back from microfracture surgery, out of shape, and suffering from several injuries during the season.

We had 3 rookies contribute significantly, and the jump to second year is often the greatest. Rudy hit the most 3 pointers of any rookie ever, and Batum was a surprise defensive stopper assigned to guard the league's elite.

Our franchise guard -- Roy -- had a season that only Jordan, Kobe, and Carter have equaled in terms of high output, mistake free ball.  He is one of 17 guards in all NBA history to make 2nd team all-NBA in his third season.

Our franchise center -- Oden (ludicrously labeled a bust by many) -- despite his injury and shape issues, had rookie year offensive rebounding percentages that were equal to the rookie years of Rodman and Moses Malone, and better than those of Buck Williams and Barkley (the 4 best O rebounders of the last 35 years).  And his O rebound % was higher than Dwight Howard's last year.

Finally, look at how we played during the stretch run last year.  Over the last 10 games of the regular season, we played incredibly well, and much of this was defensive, not the efficient offense we heard of all year.  These are just the defensive stats:

    * #1 in opponents points allowed (wide margin)

    * #3 in opponents field goal percentage

    * #1 (tie) in opponents 3 point percentage

    * #1 in opponents assists allowed (wide margin)

    * #1 in opponents rebounds allowed (wide margin)

To this, we add Andre Miller, the best free agent point guard (Sportsline), a savvy vet who is one of the better assist men in the league.  He is a long term starter, and played 75% of point guard minutes for Philly last year.  Point guard was a weakness for the Blazers last year, with a positional net PER of -0.2.  Philly had a point guard positional net PER of 3.8 (3rd in league), which is about the same PER advantage the Blazers had at power forward (LaMarcus/Travis).  So this is a very significant upgrade to the team.

Before adding Miller, we had the following positional net PERs:

PG  -0.2, 16th in league
SG  +6.1, 3rd in league
SF  +2.7, 7th in league
PF  +4.0, 2nd in league
C    -0.8, 16th in league

So we covered quite well one of our weak PER areas, bringing in the PG from the team with the 3rd best net PER in the league.  Blake played 55% of PG minutes with a net PER of +1.2, so he outplayed his opposition.  It was our backup PGs that take our rating negative: Sergio (30% of PG minutes at net PER -1.1) and Bayless (11% of PG minutes at net PER of -5.9).  

The other PER "weakness" is center, but we have the #1 rebounding center position in the league, and this advantage is likely to increase as Oden stays on the court more.

The surprise our ranking in net PER from the SF position.  We were ranked 7th last year.  This is misleading, as Roy played 25% of our SF minutes with a net PER of +18.3 (phenomenal!).  Batum played 35% of SF minutes with a net PER of -1.6, and Travis played 37% of the SF minutes with a -3.1 PER.  Of our "true" SF, Batum should improve, and Martell is back, replacing Travis.  Martell's net PER in 07/08 was -2.7, so not much difference in net PER from Travis.

Finally, our subtractions were minimal: mainly Sergio (backup point guard with 31% of point guard minutes last year) and Frye (3rd string power forward with 19% of power forward minutes),

We should be able to field a starting team with mostly strongly positive net PERs (82games):

Miller + 2.9
Roy + 9.4
Batum - 1.6
Aldridge +6.1
Oden +2.8

Our backups would be:
Blake +1.2
Rudy +4.5
Martell -2.7
Travis +3.1
Pryz 0.0

I imagine we will play more Rudy at SG (net PER of 4.5) and have Roy play more SF.  While Roy's net PER at SG exceeds Rudy's by a lot (9.4 vs 4.5), Roy's net PER at SF exceeds anyone we've got by a far cry.  This would give us the following team, which is probably our 4th quarter closing team::

Miller + 2.9
Rudy +4.5
Roy +18.3
Aldridge +6.1
Oden +2.8

Roy's surprising strength at SF deserves some comparisons with the league's best (showing % of team's minutes at that position and net PER)

LeBron as SF: 56%, +20.8

Roy as SF: 25%, +18.3

Wade as SG: 67%, + 17.0

Kobe as SG: 72%, +14.1

Howard as C: 71%, +12.8

Roy SF/SG: 72%, +12.5

Roy as SG: 47%, +9.4

Anthony as SF: 54%, +8.2

Pierce as SF: 72%, + 5.7

This makes the Roy as SF idea all the more intriguing.

Let me now address our competion's "adds."  The Lakers added Artest (net PER 5.3), big upgrade from Ariza (net PER 0.8).  Took an average position and made it strong.  The Spurs added Jefferson (net PER 3.4) big upgrade from Finley (net PER -2.6).  Took a weak position and made it pretty good.  So both of these teams got much stronger at the PF position, now our weakest position.

So we are poised to be an improved team, but our competition improved as well.  We have strong prospects of making a deep playoff run, but it won't be easy.  Go Blazers!