The following comments were taken from various threads related to the game last night:

"We got outcoached — AGAIN!!!!!!"

"What adjustments did we make as team this game? Any?"

"McMillan is the most overrated coach ever."

 "The perception vs the reality is night and day. I just don’t understand why people think he’s competent."

"Nate completely outcoached…again."

 

There are at least a dozen more comments expressing sentiments like these, but you get the gist of it, and it honestly would have been too frustrating for me to reproduce all of the Nate Negativity in one place anyway.

Continue reading this post »

It started innocently enough: I asked my two female housemates what on Earth the appeal of a show like Gossip Girl or The Hills was.  These were two highly intelligent and driven young women who -- to my point of view -- were putting the television equivalent of a butane torch to their brain cells one “Oh my God, like…” at a time.  Are Lauren and Brody gonna hook up? Are Heidi and Spencer gonna get together for good? Am I gonna cut my wrists and slowly bleed out before this half-hour is up?

The obvious retort hit me square between the eyes.  “That’s exactly how I feel about sports,” Emily said, half-turning to Denise and getting an assenting nod. “All the hooting and hollering over something no more real than this TV show.”  I bridled internally, not wanting to start an argument in which I had no real stake, but my reaction was visceral.  You didn’t just equate one of my life’s greatest passions to this…drivel. 

I let the matter drop, but I was ill at ease.  Mine has been a sporting life: playing ball since I could toddle, watching ball in my most incipient memories.  Asked to define myself, “sports fan” would be one of the first thoughts to spring to mind.  For this reason the idea that something so fundamental to my life could be seen as every bit as vacuous as Blair Waldorf’s life on the Upper East Side was to me shook me…and worse still, Emily’s logic had some objective merit.  Those empty-headed actors garnered wealth and fame for their exploits too.  Oregon’s double-overtime thriller against Arizona hardly changed the world, did it?  Brandon Roy doesn’t actually know you and wouldn’t care about you if he did, you do realize that right?

Continue reading this post »

Conventional wisdom and Wendell Maxey would have us believe that Andre Miller is the bee's knees when it comes to making life easier on his big men on the offensive end. 

There's no doubt that Miller is a slick passer, and his 351 combined "dunk" and "close" assists ranked third in the NBA last year, trailing only Steve Nash and Deron Williams.

But does the conventional wisdom hold up when we examine the stats of the primary big men on Miller's teams throughout his career? Check it out after the jump.

Continue reading this post »

This is duplicating JScot and Snake's excellent work to a certain extent, but I wanted to look at our schedule for the rest of the season and how we stack up in the race for the division title against the Nuggets.  My guesses for how things shake out are just that -- I don't have any fancy-pants statistical knowledge like those two gents -- but I think it's worthwhile to have all the remaining games in one place.

 

BLAZERS

3/23: PHIL  We should win this game. I'd be more worried about these guys for all the reasons Dave mentioned in his main-page post, but we've been playing great ball the last four games against teams similar to Philly's caliber.  They're on a back-to-back to boot. W, 45-26

3/26: PHO  2-0 on the homestand, here we come! Phoenix is not to be underestimated -- it's a team with proud veterans fighting for its playoff life -- but they're coming into the Garden on a back-to-back against the Jazz. They'll be exhausted from playing at altitude and from getting into Portland at 2:30 AM, and the Jazz will  have beaten them up as only a Jerry Sloan-coached team can. W, 46-26

3/28: MEM  Memphis sucks and we've been outstanding at home against bad teams all year. W, 47-26

3/31: UTAH  I think we get this win.  Utah is coming into Portland on a back-to-back after playing the high-paced Knicks the night before.  Portland is on three days' rest and will be raring to cap off the homestand before headindg out on the road. And the Jazz have been terrible on the road this year against elite WC opposition.  W, 48-26

4/03: @OKC  I don't think we'll have forgotten what  happened the last time we went to OKC.  There's not much of a chance of us looking past this game to the Rockets -- Nate will have the troops too focused for that.  The Thunder are dangerous, but I think we'll pull this one out. W, 49-26

4/05: @HOU Don't give our boys much of a shot in this one.  The Rockets have not one but two elite perimeter defenders to throw at Roy and a bevvy of middling-to-solid big men to hammer him every time he drives.  L, 49-27

4/07: @MEM Did I mention that Memphis sucks? Assuming we don't lose a heartbreaker to Houston that causes a mental letdown, the Blazers take this one. W, 50-27

4/08: @SAS  The Spurs are too good at this time of year and the Blazers are too green to go into San Antonio and steal this game, especially on a back-to-back.  L, 50-28

4/10: LAL  Tough, tough game to call. Both teams are going to be fired up after Rudygate, and the Blazers will be  jockeying for position to boot.  Lakers are on a back-to-back, playing the Nuggets in LA before flying to the Rose City.  But the first game back home after a road trip is oftentimes a tough one...my heart says W, but my brain says L, 50-29

4/11: @LAC The Clippers are the most dysfunctional team in the NBA right now...but on a back-to-back, after a hugely emotional game win OR lose against the Lakers, against a team as talented on paper as the Clippers, heading back out on the road for the last time all year, this has all the makings of a trap game. It says here that the Blazers get the win, but a L wouldn't surprise me. W, 51-29

4/13:  OKC The Thunder are playing for lottery balls. We're playing for home-court advantage.  W, 52-29

4/15: DEN Can we just for a moment imagine the atmosphere at tipoff if this, the final home game of the regular season against our division rivals, decides who wins the Northwest?  Damn this being stuck in Boston! We must win. My fandom won't allow me to consider any other possibility. W, 53-29

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

NUGGETS

 

3/23: @ PHO  The Nuggets are starting a brutal three-game trip to Phoenix, New Orleans, and Dallas; Phoenix is riding a four-game winning streak and is fighting for its playoff life.  This one could go either way, but I'll give the nod to the Suns based mostly on the fact that they're playing at home and are desperate. L, 45-26

3/25: @NO  New Orleans has won three in a row against cupcakes, but Billups is a tough matchup for Paul.  Again, this could go either way, but I think the Nuggets will get the W, 46-26

3/27: @DAL Dallas has been really up and down over the last six games -- beating us but getting whomped by Golden State, for example.  It's a toss-up, but I think the Nuggets are the better team, and usually the better team Wins, 47-26

3/28: GS Only thing that could make this tough for the Nuggets is that they're coming off of a brutal road trip and it's a back-to-back.  I'll go ahead and give the Nuggets the W, but 3-1 through this four-game stretch would be absolutely outstanding for them. 1-3 is equally likely. 48-26

3/31: NY Don't see the Nuggets losing this game at home. W, 49-26

4/02: UTAH The Jazz will be on a day's rest after having played in Portland, the Nuggets will have rested for two days after laying the whomp-stick on the Knicks at home. Gotta give the edge to the Nuggets in that comparison, plus the Jazz suck on the road like I mentioned. W, 50-26

4/04: LAC See my comment for the 3/31 game. W, 51-26

4/05: @MIN This is the Nuggets' equivalent of the LAC game for us. Back-to-back, heading out on the road to play an inferior opponent, but one that could rise up and bite you if you don't pay enough attention.  They could drop this one, but I don't see that happening. W, 52-26

4/08: OKC The Thunder aren't going to beat the Nuggets in Denver with playoff positioning at stake. W, 53-26

4/09: @LAL At LA on a back-to-back? Ouch. L, 53-27

4/13: SAC Three days' rest against the woeful Kings at home? Chalk up a W for the guys in black hats, 54-27

4/15: @POR We're gonna win this game. Hooray! L, 54-28

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Unfortunately, 54-28 is better than 53-29.  If these projections (well, let's be honest, WAGs is more accurate) shake out, the Nuggets win the Northwest. Even a one-game swing the other way isn't enough for us to win, because the Nuggets hold the tiebreaker (which I believe is record against division opponents if head-to-head is tied).

 

This four-game stretch is crucial for the Nuggets then. 3-1 will effectively win them the division; 1-3 gives us the inside lane to home-court advantage. That Utah game will be key as well...I'm going to be pulling for the Jazz in that one. Utah's closing stretch, which I didn't detail here, is absolutely brutal. You can make the argument that they're only favored in 5 of their final 12 games. I'm not worried about them catching us, so I'd rather have them knock off Denver in Denver and give us some help that way.

 

Conversely, if we're the Blazers (and we are, right?) then we have to win every game we should win plus at LEAST one of the Hou/LAL/SAS games to really put the the heat on Denver.  Dropping those three plus one winnable game is the nail in our home-court coffin, and if we win one of those and lose a game we SHOULD win then at least we get a little bit of wiggle room. If that happens, and Denver doesn't play its best down the stretch, then we could steal the division. 

 

Bottom line: be scoreboard watching like crazy for the next four games. We need the Nuggets to suck in this stretch, because I think they'll make hay in their final six or seven games. And cheer like crazy for the Blazers in the Hou/SAS/LAL games, because we really, really need to get one of those to solidify our shot at home-court advantage.

 

Go Blazers!

An afterthought to begin the 2007-08 NBA season, the Blazers drew national attention when they streaked into 2008 riding a 13-game winning streak. By early February, Portland sat comfortably at 28-20, eight games over .500, and posters all over this board salivated at the thought of blowing the roof off the Garden in May. The Blazers proceeded to lose 7 of their next 8 road games, crated to a 13-21 finish, and ended the season nine games out of the playoffs.

Media darlings to begin the 2008-09 season, the Blazers started 2009 in impressive fashion, winning 10 of 13 in January and early February and cruising to a season-high 15 games over .500. Visions of home-court advantage in May danced like sugar plum faries among the BlazersEdge faithful. But like Sisyphus, the Blazers appeared doomed to repeat history, losing 6 out of 8 road games....................

 

So what's the point?

 

1) Missing the playoffs last season was not nearly the catastrophe it seemed to be at the time.

I was as bummed as anybody when the Blazers went in the tank. I wanted playoff basketball back in Portland so badly I could almost taste it; thinking about the roar in the Rose Garden during those first playoff player introductions gave me goosebumps. It was my opinion, shared by many around these parts, that making the playoffs and gaining that experience was integral to the Blazers' continued maturation as a team.

I was wrong. Roy has taken the leap from All-Star to All-NBA. Blake is showing that he deserves to be a starting NBA point guard. Travis added a whole new dimension -- three-point shooting -- to his game. LaMarcus continued to bulk up and develop his back to the basket repertoire. Sergio has proved, much like Martell did in his third season, that he belongs in the NBA.

All of that happened without the benefit of playoff seasoning, and it happened because we have the right elements in place for long-term success: coaching staff, front office, and ownership mutually reinforcing one another; and a young, talented, and extremely hard-working group of players. We were winning with smoke and mirrors, and the funny thing about NBA basketball in April and May is it tends to disperse smoke and break mirrors pretty quickly. Our failure to reach the loftiest achieveable goal for last season, reaching the playoffs, didn't change the fundamental fact that we have a special group brewing.

 

2) In a similar vein, not getting home-court advantage will not be the catastrophe it currently appears to be.

The Blazers were not a playoff team last year, despite what their record in February said; and they are not a top-four team in the West this year, despite what their record said until recently. Right now the cream is going to start separating itself from the crop, and we're still more latter than former.  We are highly unlikely to reach our loftiest achievable goal for this season -- procure home-court advantage in the playoffs -- but frankly, we're not good enough for that yet, just like last season we weren't good enough to make the playoffs. Is it frustrating to lose to a Spurs team without Duncan and Ginobli? Hell yes. But gnashing our teeth over a simple reality (we're just not a top-four team in the West -- yet) isn't going to do us any more good this season than it did last season.

 

3) We're not reaching for the brass ring this year.

KP had the chips and the cards, and he decided not to play. Whether or not you think that's a good decision, there is no doubt in my mind that his performance thus far merits giving him the benefit of the doubt. We could have dealt for a veteran this year and earned home-court advantage for at least the first round; KP deciding against that means that it's not a priority for him this season. Last year making the playoffs would have been icing on the cake; this year a top-four seed would be; but not making a trade indicates that for both seasons for the organization, it was and is just icing -- nothing more.

I'm impatient too. We've suffered through years of incomptence on and off the court, national embarrassment, dark days of dogfighting and drug-doing -- for the love of God, we're so close to being *back* that I can almost taste it again. But this season wasn't the year to lay the cards on the table.  Do I wish it had been? Yeah, kinda. But nothing KP and Nate have decided so far has made me doubt their vision for this team.

A Blazers championship this year was a pipe dream. And if that destination isn't feasible, then it's the journey that's most important. Let's hope that both we as fans and the team enjoy it to the fullest.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=3905146

 

Well, the Bosh-O'Neal dream frontcourt didn't last for very long.  This means that any trade sending Bosh to us will be off-limits until the summer...Coangelo just fired the biggest bullet in his gun to placate CB.  Too bad for us. 

 

75 words, divide them into thirds, man I think this rule is absurd, my loins I shall gird. BOB out.

Sorry if this has already been posted somewhere, but I don't see it...this morning's Oregonian reported that Joel has "an avulsion of the scaphoid on his left wrist".  Apparently that's when a chunk of bone comes off and chills out in your hand for a while.  He's questionable for Friday's game against the Hornets, but much more concerning to me than Joel possibly missing one game was the 6-8 weeks required for recovery.  He's going to try to play through it, but if he can't, then he's *not* gonna be day-to-day.  I'm experiencing nightmarish flashbacks to last year when we only had one big man, except worse because Greg can't stay on the court.  Ugggggh.

So through a confluence of incredibly fortunate events, three of my best friends and I were able to score courtside tickets at no cost.  The seats were *siiiiick* -- two rows back, right behind the Nuggets' bench -- and in prime heckling territory, as I'll elaborate upon later.  First, some general observations and player-by-player reviews, Dave-style.

• The fans in the Garden should be proud of their contributions tonight.  Spontaneous cheering and clapping broke out when the Blazers went flat in the middle of the first quarter in an effort to galvanize the troops.  I don't even remember if it worked, truthfully, but I was impressed with the savviness of our fans.  They were on their feet for the entire fourth quarter making an ear-splitting din during every consequential Nuggets possession.  I can't wait -- cannot WAIT -- for playoff ball to come back to the Rose Garden.  If we get home-court advantage, even if just for the first round? Look out Western Conference.
• Too many three-point attempts from the good guys. I know, I know -- nine-for-28 is almost as good as shooting 50% on 2-pointers, yada yada.  But too many of those attempts came after crisp ball movement left a shooter open on the weak side.  The book's out on the Blazers: Denver was CHARGING out on the shooter to contest, and their defenders were contesting very well.  If we head-fake and dribble-drive attack, it's gonna be a dunk or two free throws.  Rudy and Trav in particular should make a note of this.
• Best defensive effort I've seen all year from the Blazers.  To hold a team like the Nuggets to less than 43% from the field is outstanding.  It helped that with the exception of Kleiza, their jump-shooters were ice-cold, but part of that is that the Blazers were packing it in and taking away their easy looks.  How many times have we seen LaMarcus get hot from the perimeter after making a few chippies in the lane?  Billups, Smith, and Martin never did damage from the paint, and as a direct result they never did damage from outside.  Our transition defense, after being leakier than a sieve last night, was close to airtight.  Don't have the fast-break points in the box score, but I'll bet dollars to doughnuts we held the Nugs well below their season average.

*Brandon*: Just another quiet 19 and six from the Natural.  I elbowed one of my buddies when B-Roy was on the stripe in the fourth quarter and told him with a grin, "Check out Brandon's line."  He replied, "When the hell did THAT happen?"  Performances like this show Brandon's All-Starred-Ness every bit as much as his 52-point explosion.

My one beef with Brandon is that he's hesitating too much right now (by which I mean the last two games since The Game).  In my layman's opinion, it's a combination of two things: he doesn't want to alienate his teammates by being too trigger-happy, and he's getting a second defender shaded to him or an outright double-team *literally* the second he touches the ball.  As soon as he receives, he's going to have to get used to dropping Meticulous Brandon and becoming Instant Attack Brandon.  Twice he attacked immediately after receiving, and twice he was on the line shooting two.

*LMA*: straight beastin'  tonight.  22 points, eight boards, a block, a steal -- and most importantly, 8-9 from the line.  For the last half-dozen games, LaMarcus has been establishing himself in the post and THEN moving outside for the pick-and-pop.  He's drawing more fouls because of it.  Great outing.

*Greg*:  Yeeeesh.  My only comment shall be this: we have GOT to come over the top of the screen whenever Greg's man is the screener.  Every time our perimeter man gets screened, Greg has to shuffle to try to contain the ball-handler driving to the hole, and he's picking up a TON of ticky-tack fouls.  I'm sure the refs are watching him closely on plays like those, because he's getting zero leeway.  We have to make some kind of adjustment there until he's as mobile as he's gonna be.

*Nic*: Get well soon, Marty. 

*Blake*:  Great (and timely!) three-point shooting.  Every time the Nugs went on a run, it seemed like Blake was stepping up with a dagger...

that is, when he wasn't turning the ball over.  He had a few egregious -- and I mean truly head-scratchingly bad, that-pass-wouldn't-work-in-my-pickup-games-bad -- turnovers.  Uncharacteristically sloppy with the ball tonight.  He'll bounce back.

*Sergio*: comes back from his worst game this year with one of his finest showings.  16 minutes, nine points, four dimes, played within complete control, and had credible defense against Billups.  His decision-making off the bounce was excellent, and if Blake hadn't been so toasty from downtown, we would have seen more of him.

*Rudy*:  he's KJ-lite -- just call him El Microondas.  12 points in 22 minutes off the bench, including one step-back three with the shot clock expiring that blew the roof off the Garden.  Not as many scrappy plays as we're used to getting from our Spanish wonderboy, but a fine performance nevertheless.

*Trav*: man.  I love Travis, except for when I hate him, and there's no in-between.  His line was lousy tonight -- 24 minutes, 5 points, 2 boards, 2-8 FGA, and limited presence on the floor.   He missed three wide-open threes (see my above comment about attacking the rim) that you could argue are either gonna drop most of the time or is the first indicator of regression to the mean for him.  Kleiza was dropping him on the perimeter like third-period French before draining his threes.  Another frustrating Travis performance.

*Joel*: give the game ball to the Thrilla.  You just can't appreciate how much dirty work this guy does in the paint until you're sitting two rows back.  Limited Nene's damage on the offensive glass, had K-Mart in his back pocket all game, and grabbed a ridiculous 19 rebounds in his 40 minutes.  From the second it *looks* like a shot is going out, Joel is boxing out on every -- and I mean every -- possession.  It's a genuine pleasure to watch him work the glass on both ends.

*Channing*: played himself back into the rotation tonight.  Five points, two boards, and a steal in his 10 minutes, plus excellent defense on the Nene-Billups pick and roll while he was in the game. 

As for the heckling...we were in their heads.  I've never before experienced the giddy, lightheaded feeling of having an NBA player turn around and stare you down for four seconds during a timeout.  The Birdman did NOT appreciate the hair, tat, and drug jokes with which he was being relentlessly bombarded.  My little brother told 'Melo that he heard the refs were snitchin' and could he do something about that, provoking a staredown.  Dahntae Jones gave us the look of death when, as he was edging onto the court in the fourth quarter from the bench, we informed him that he'd been so bad, edging on was the closest he was gonna get to playing for the rest of the night.  We heckled J.R. Smith and 'Melo to sit down for about five minutes, causing literally the entire Nuggets bench to get to their feet in a collective "screw you" to the four of us. Finally, my favorite exchange of the night went a little something like this (and I'm sorry in advance for the disguised swearing, Dave, but it's just too sweet to leave out):

My little brother: Hey BALKMAN, you're not gonna play, so take a SEAT!

Balkman: ::turns and grabs his crotch at us::

Anonymous fan #1: Hey @******, why don't you take a seat?

Balkman: Hey *****, why don't you **** my ************* ****?

Fan #2: Hey BALKMAN, didn't HEAR you, what'd you say?

Balkman: I SAID, WHY DON'T YOU **** MY ************* ****?

At which point security intervened and everybody around us delivered congratulatory high-fives.  For those of you who listened to 95.5's 5th quarter report and heard the fan call in, talking about how the Nuggets' team had no class and was swearing at kids down the stretch in the fourth quarter...we were those kids!!! Proudest moment of my life thus far.

Phew, long recap.  Hell of a win, and hell of an experience sitting courtside.  Go Blazers.

What's up guys,

 

I prowl the SBNation over at BlazersEdge and I joined here to ask you, well-informed and intelligent Kings fans that you are, the pluses and minuses of Beno Udrih's game. Unless I'm mistaken, he's a UFA this year...and I'm quite certain I'm not mistaken about the Blazers needing an upgrade at PG.

 

So what's the deal with Udrih? Is he part of the Kings' future plans? After he came on strong in the second half of the year following the Bibby deal, I would have thought that he'd be the heir presumptive to the Bibby throne, but all the mocks I've been reading have the Kings going after D.J. Augustin or Russell Westbrook.  Is Petrie gonna resign him, and if so at what kind of contract in terms of years/money? If he's not being targeted for resigning, why not?

Basically all I know about Udrih is he was a great waiver-wire pickup for my fantasy teams. Break him down for me, if you please, Sactown Royalty. Thanks!

Continue reading this post »

That 90% figure sounds like savvy media-work to me (hat tip to SpyderRyder for the timely diary immediately below) -- Rudy Fernandez will be a member of the Portland Trail Blazers next year.

However...he just may arrive as a player with a few strings attached. This has recent historical precedent; it's fairly common knowledge that Yi only acquiesced to playing in Milwaukee after receiving a playing time guarantee from Bucks management. According to the article cited in SR's diary, Rudy is requesting significant playing time to offset the economic losses he'll be suffering by coming in on the rookie salary scale.

Which raises the question...to what extent should Blazers brass take into account Fernandez's desire? If Rudy says, "I'm not coming unless you guarantee me 20-25 minutes a night", should KP and Nate capitulate? On the one hand, it sends a lousy message to the rest of the team that minutes ought to be earned and not doled out like Middle-Age indulgences; on the other hand, Rudy has every right to lay out his own terms and put the ball in the Blazers' court, especially considering the money he's leaving on the table.  Does the potential exist for KP and Nate to clash on this issue? -- KP might very well be of a different mind about guaranteed playing time than the coaching staff.

Considering Sergio's somewhat tenuous situation here and Rudy coming over with certain court-time expectations that may not be met, I could see our Spanish contingent being quite upset with the red-and-black next year.

I'm not necessarily advocating this position -- but as I started to reply to the main-page thread about our bubble youngsters, I began to think that there are a few reasons to consider it.  Hear me out, BE, and then tell me what I've missed.

1) As of now, our depth chart for next year 2-4 looks something like this. 2: Roy/Jack/Rudy/Martell; 3: Martell/JJ2/Trout. 4: LMA/Trout/Frye. All together, now, "Minute crunch!"  Even if Jack gets traded, Martell still won't be getting more than a couple of minutes a game at the 2 -- if that, with Roy playing 40 minutes a game and Rudy vacuuming up his scraps. In addition, Martell lacks the ball-handling skills to be an effective 2, which by default slides him up to the 3.

Martell (28 mpg) and Jones (23 mpg) ought to combine for about 40 mpg next season, leaving 8 at the SF for Travis. Now let's say LMA averages 36 minutes a game next season: a reasonable estimate, as he's at 34.2 in his first full season as a starter. Even if Frye gets traded, that's still only 12 minutes a game for Outlaw backing up the 4 and 20 total -- more than a 25% decrease in his playing time from this season.  His value as a trading chip will likely never be higher than it is right now, and that value will fall concordant with the decline of his minutes.

2.  Proceeding from 1 begs the question: will Travis be worth more to us getting spot minutes backing up the 3 and 4, or as a trading chip to address a position of greater need -- like, for example, that glaring hole in our backcourt?  I think valid arguments can be made for both sides, but what if we could trade Outlaw, Jack, and our number one for a signed-and-traded Calderon? I think that's a deal Toronto would certainly consider. Wouldn't Calderon/Roy/Martell/LMA/Oden and Blake/Rudy/JJ2/Frye/Pryz plus whatever picks we buy and whichever second-rounders pan out be a dang good team?
3.  Here's our second unit as of next year: Jack/Sergio, Rudy, JJ2, Outlaw, Pryz.  Two things jump out at me. Number one, we're gonna be hucking jumpers all day long, and number two, we're gonna get absolutely pounded on defense and on the boards.  Playing that sieve-like group of perimeter defenders who offer weak rebounding means that we need at least two guys who are going to offer intimidation, rebounding, and interior defense. We have one and Trav ain't it.

We could trade the other guys for lockdown perimeter defenders who can rebound and keep Travis...or we can trade Travis, our most valuable, realistically movable trade chip, for an answer at the one and find a rugged PF to plug in his place in the second unit -- going a long way towards answering the doubts framed above in the first paragraph of 3).  Maxiell, Millsap, and more recently Landry were all second-rounders within the last two years who fit this description perfectly. I see no reason why KP can't find a similar player given our abundance of second-round picks this year.

So that's one side of the argument.  What's the other?

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/080223

Now this is interesting. Everybody's favorite columnist is back for Round 2, and this time he's dishing juicy rumors from the All-Star weekend.  Page down to the first bullet point after number three.  Here's the teaser to whet your interest: "One other note on Kidd that everyone missed: The most logical home for him was Portland."  He proceeds to outline a possible deal and explains why he likes it.  

I'll present my own thoughts about this shortly, but in the interest of not prejudicing the discussion with the sheer brilliance of my pontifications, I offer it first to you, my BE compatriots.  Read that linked paragraph -- whadda y'all say?

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/blog/index?name=simmons&entryDate=20080220

Go read it. I insist. Just make sure that you have a trash can handy, cuz I just projectile-vomited all over my computer screen and I wanna save you, my BE friends, from the same fate. For a guy who calls himself an NBA expert and the Picasso of the trade machine...paint-by-numbers maybe. This trade is awful. Awful.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=3253107

Great deal for the Mavs.  I think Harris will be a very good player for the Nets, but Kidd's a first-ballot HOF PG with Finals experience and a lot of gas still in the tank.  I've thought for a long time that a Dirk-led team would never win anything significant, and this trade is gonna give Dallas a new leader come playoff time. They're more dangerous now than the new-look L*kers.

...or more accurately, some half-baked thoughts generalizing from one game.  Rudy's DKV Joventut squad just ran roughshod over Pamesa Valencia 85-59 (I believe was the final score).  I watched the game -- more accurately, watched our boy -- and jotted down some observations on each of his offensive possessions and plays in which he was involved defensively.  They are as follows.

OFFENSE

Rudy is an exceptionally tough cover for ACB defenders.  His shot chart says it all: 3/3 on two-pointers, 5/5 from the line, 3/6 from deep totaling a game-high 20.  He has a very quick release on his jumper making it difficult to block; this is a good thing, as he gets little elevation before shooting.  I would expect some initial struggles with his jump shot as he acclimates himself to the greater speed, length, and hops of NBA defenses.  That being said, Fernandez has no trouble knocking down jumpers with a hand on his face: all three of his threes were contested.  He has NBA range on his jump shot.  

Rudy demanded the ball three times in the first half with the shot clock winding down and delivered all three times, twice sinking contested threes and once setting up a teammate with a nice drive-and-dish, though he didn't convert.  He should be an excellent bail-out option on the second unit after plays break down.  

Fernandez shows very good ability to hit jumpers off the dribble: one three-pointer came after a right-to-left crossover, and another after two hard dribbles right to beat his defender.  He sank the one mid-range jumper he attempted off the dribble, but seemed more comfortable either slashing or shooting threes.  Fernandez slashes to the basket well, attacking his defender with either left or right-hand dribbles, although he appears more comfortable going and finishing right.  Despite lacking upper-body strength, he exhibits superior body control, allowing him to finish after contact: he converted one three-point play and made another layup after getting bumped (no whistle) on a fast break. Twice Rudy pulled down rebounds, went coast-to-coast, and drew shooting fouls in transition.  He attacks the basket better during transition than in the half-court, where he's more content to settle for threes.

Rudy is not blindingly fast in vertical speed, nor is he exceptionally quick laterally, but his herky-jerky dribbling style combined with a surprising initial burst allow him to beat defenders off the bounce.  A caveat: never once did I see Fernandez penetrate in the half-court without the aid of a screener, and just based on my observations of this game, I would have strong doubts about his ability to break his NBA man down one-on-one like we see Brandon do in late-game situations -- at least initially.

Rudy is a very good passer on the fast break.  He twice hit teammates streaking for layups with half-court passes, including one sidearm baseball pass that split three defenders and would have made any SportsCenter clip.  He is also a good passer in the halfcourt, tallying three consecutive assists -- two alley-oops -- in the fourth quarter to push the game out of reach.  That being said, he's a poor passer off the dribble-drive: once he's driving, it's a very safe bet that a shot's going up, and he twice missed teammates flashing to the basket for an easy dump-off layin while driving.  

Rudy's movement off the ball is poor.  He doesn't look to utilize screens for curl-and-pops like Hamilton or Martell, nor does he attempt to cut backdoor or V-cut to receive passes.  This may be a reflection of the team's offensive philosophy or his teammates' inability to effectively find him in these situations, but even when he shared the court with Ricky Rubio, he still loitered on the wing until the ball was swung to him.  With his quick release and good balance on his jumper, this ought to be an easy element for him to incorporate next year if he doesn't already possess it.

He occasionally gets trigger-happy: all three of his misses from deep were bad shots.  One came just seconds into the shot clock after one pass, one was from two feet outside of an NBA three, and one was off a fast break with an easy lane to penetrate to the basket available.  He only turned the ball over twice -- one of the knocks against him in the NBAdraft.net profile is that he needs to take care of the ball better, but I didn't see that.

DEFENSE

Rudy will not do wonders for our defense next year -- though he looked significantly more comfortable playing zone than man-to-man, which is a good fit with our current defensive scheme.  Three times he was isolated on the wing and attacked off the dribble, and three times he was blown by.  While his defensive anticipation was good, his lateral quickness is not.  Between his lack of upper-body strength and average lateral footspeed, I'd expect most NBA 2's to eat his lunch next year, and forget any lineups that have Rudy defending ones.  

Playing the wing in a 2-3 zone, he shows very good awareness and activity in the passing lanes.  He deflected numerous passes and has long arms and good instincts.  Several times he read the move of the opposing center (matched up against the center of the zone), slid down from the wing, and forced turnovers with a travel or ripping the ball away.  After gambling into the passing lanes, Rudy recovers quickly, though he gave up several baskets gambling in this fashion.  

His defensive rotations are average to subpar, though when he commits to defense -- as he did at the start of the third quarter, when the opposing team had cut the lead to four -- he is capable of playing excellent team defense.  His lapses appear to be a combination of occasional loss of focus and desire, which is understandable as he's the number one offensive threat.  

REBOUNDING

Rudy's rebounding needs to improve.  He relies too much on his above-average athletic ability and length to grab rebounds, seldom boxing out.  He'll fit right in here next year -- every time a shot goes up, he turns his head to watch the flight of the ball rather than putting a body on his man.  His side of the floor gave up a disproportionate number of offensive rebounds.  Two of the three fouls for which he was whistled came on loose-ball fouls where he gave up inside position.  Save for one excellent tip-in on a missed free throw, he doesn't crash the offensive glass.  Rudy does have a good nose for the ball -- he reads the flight of the ball well and tracked down two long rebounds coming from the other side of the floor.  But when Shammond Williams is beating you on the offensive boards, you know you've got a problem.  More than Rudy's defensive deficiencies, his rebounding concerned me.  He showed that when focused, he was very capable of playing sound team defense, if not the ability to shut someone down one-on-one; never once did he show the same tenacity to rebound, nor an understanding of rebounding fundamentals.  Nate and Mo will have to pound the importance of this into him next year, I think.

All right, I've got some thoughts about how we might end up using Rudy and how his transition to the NBA will be at first, but this is plenty long enough already.  Keep in mind that I'm far from an NBA scout and this is only just what I've gleaned from watching one game and comparing it against a few draft profiles I've read about him, so don't shred me too bad.

And I'm not talking about he and his buddies stealing the SAT either.  The following is an excerpt of the McRoberts diary, but it spun off-topic and I think it's interesting enough to warrant its own discussion.  The first part is Timbo's post: the second is my reply.

I don't know what's up with Miles...
BECAUSE THERE IS A CONCENTRATED NEWS BLACKOUT COMING FROM THE BLAZERS AND THEIR EMPLOYEES AND EVEN THE BEAT REPORTERS WHO COVER THE TEAM.
No one says a thing about Miles.
About Oden: willing to talk all day.
I still say they're intent on scamming an insurance company, so it's all hush-hush on orders from the top. That's the only thing that makes sense to me.
t

You know
the first time you posed this suggestion I brushed it off. My initial reaction was, "But T-bone, that simply doesn't jive with the new-look, warm-and-fuzzy Blazers who I so dearly love!"  But the more I think about it, the more I find myself starting to agree with you.  

Obviously there are differences in their situations: Miles is a link to the sordid past and Oden's the incipient franchise savior, to put it simplistically.  Oden makes people feel all gooey inside and he's more important to the future of our team than Miles, so it makes sense that Oden's rehab would be more publicized -- but only to a point.  

And the absence of even a peep from One Center Court about Miles' playing status or rehab progress well surpasses that point.  All we've heard is that Darius isn't ready yet.  Darius and his agent say otherwise. How close is he? What is he lacking physically? How much contact has he had with the team? Does the team want him back or are they indifferent?  Why the dichotomy between Miles' camp and that of the Blazers? All of those are valid and relatively interesting questions, and they haven't been addressed in any kind of detail.

I'm a editor for our school newspaper -- when it comes to D-III sports, you're always on the lookout for a decent storyline.  "Wayward basketball player with massive potential loses fan base, gets injured, matures in his absence from the game and realizes how much he loves to play, rehabs hard to become the final piece of the flourishing puzzle and win back the fans" is an awesome tack to take; that could easily be a successful multi-part feature.  The Oregonian is a hell of a lot better at my job than I am -- so where in the name of Jove has that story been?  I'm with you, Timbo, something doesn't jive here.

--------------------------------------------------

Where is the Darius news? Why are the team and the media keeping the fans woefully underinformed about his rehab and playing situation?  I strongly, strongly doubt that journalistic ethics would permit the beat writers to be in cahoots with the team, like T suggests, but aside from that I smell a rat.

We are 18 months removed from the nadir of the existence of the Portland Trail Blazers.  That season, that "team" lost three out of every four games in such a nonchalant, disjointed, and dispirited fashion that it was a shame to call yourself a Blazers fan. Those players simply didn't give two rips -- not for each other, not for each other, and certainly not for us, the fans.

When that squad wasn't getting annihilated on the court, they were embarrassing themselves off of it. Patterson demanded a guaranteed 25 minutes a night or a trade and openly defied McMillan's authority as coach. Telfair "mistakenly" brought a loaded handgun on the team plane.  Cars registered to Randolph were drag-racing in a 20-MPH zone.  Randolph was investigated for felonious sexual assault.  And our three-headed Cerebus of a front office was an incompetent joke.

And the people of Portland were disgusted.  Disgusted with the open contempt the players displayed towards the coach and the organization, fed up with turning on KATU at 5:00 and seeing another off-court incident being reported, flat tired of cheering for a team that didn't respect them nor each other.  The Blazers played before an indifferent, half-full Garden every night; Kobe and LeBron got louder cheers than any Blazers player; Paul Allen made serious attempts to sell the team.  Eighteen months ago we were scouring the details of the Rose Garden's lease and evaluating the likelihood of the NBA approving a relocation request.

And now, eighteen months later, we stand on the brink of a dynasty.  We have one of the brightest up-and-coming coaches in the game, a roster brimming from top to bottom with young talent, a general manager with the touch of King Midas, and a rejuvenated owner willing to spend whatever it takes to bring a championship to Portland.  I've been in the Garden this year when fans were blowing the roof off for a regular-season game in December.  It gives me goosebumps to recall now.

Yet somehow, in a fashion that truly boggles my mind, I've read on this site -- one of the most knowledgeable, passionate basketball sites I've found on the web -- diaries calling for Nate's head on a platter.  Posters excoriating Frye, Jack, Sergio, and Webster, demanding their trades or outright releases.  Casting aspersions over the entire roster and coaching staff when we lose a game.  Saying they're tired of making excuses for this team.

I'm sick and tired of it.  Remember where we were 18 months ago and look at where we are now.  We ought to be thanking our lucky stars on bended knee every single night -- that this franchise has resurrected itself from its ashes and recaptured the full devotion of every single Blazers fan in a year and a half.  There are franchises that have been "rebuilding" for the past decade.

I get up at 3:30 am to watch streaming video of this team live because I don't want to miss a second of it, and I'm not saying it to toot my own horn -- I know I'm not the only one here doing it, or who would do it if necessary.  And if a 21-year-old isn't a consistent shooter yet, or a foreign point guard learning a new style and a new language yo-yos up-and-down, or if we lose a game on a last-second layup by the best player in the world...a dash of perspective might be warranted here.  Because 18 months ago, the buzz, enthusiasm, and accolades that the Portland Trail Blazers now garner from every corner of the nation would have seemed a fantastical mirage.

Not sure if this article had been posted already, my apologies if it had been.  It's three or four days old (written before our game against the Nets) and doesn't say anything we don't already know. But Nate and the RoyBot get some props, the Blazers are contrasted against the Knicks as the proper way to rebuild, and there are even a couple of great lines from our L*ker-loving boy Billy W.

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/basketball/2008/01/13/2008-01-13_brandon_roy_nate_mcmillan_helped_ portlan.html

Not whatsoever Blazers related, but this is a pretty wild story.  The comish upheld a Heat protest of a road game at Atlanta over a month ago; the Hawks' official scorer incorrectly DQ'd Shaq with six fouls -- he only had five -- with a minute to play, and the Hawks went on to win the game.  It's the first time a game protest has been upheld in 25 years and the Hawks got fined $50k for gross negligence to boot.  So next time the teams play, they'll replay the final 51.9 seconds of this game first, whichever team wins chalks up the W, and then they'll play another one immediately thereafter.  Ernie Banks is smiling somewhere.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=3192421