It started innocently enough: I asked my two female housemates what on Earth the appeal of a show like Gossip Girl or The Hills was.  These were two highly intelligent and driven young women who -- to my point of view -- were putting the television equivalent of a butane torch to their brain cells one “Oh my God, like…” at a time.  Are Lauren and Brody gonna hook up? Are Heidi and Spencer gonna get together for good? Am I gonna cut my wrists and slowly bleed out before this half-hour is up?

The obvious retort hit me square between the eyes.  “That’s exactly how I feel about sports,” Emily said, half-turning to Denise and getting an assenting nod. “All the hooting and hollering over something no more real than this TV show.”  I bridled internally, not wanting to start an argument in which I had no real stake, but my reaction was visceral.  You didn’t just equate one of my life’s greatest passions to this…drivel. 

I let the matter drop, but I was ill at ease.  Mine has been a sporting life: playing ball since I could toddle, watching ball in my most incipient memories.  Asked to define myself, “sports fan” would be one of the first thoughts to spring to mind.  For this reason the idea that something so fundamental to my life could be seen as every bit as vacuous as Blair Waldorf’s life on the Upper East Side was to me shook me…and worse still, Emily’s logic had some objective merit.  Those empty-headed actors garnered wealth and fame for their exploits too.  Oregon’s double-overtime thriller against Arizona hardly changed the world, did it?  Brandon Roy doesn’t actually know you and wouldn’t care about you if he did, you do realize that right?

Continue reading this post »

Conventional wisdom and Wendell Maxey would have us believe that Andre Miller is the bee's knees when it comes to making life easier on his big men on the offensive end. 

There's no doubt that Miller is a slick passer, and his 351 combined "dunk" and "close" assists ranked third in the NBA last year, trailing only Steve Nash and Deron Williams.

But does the conventional wisdom hold up when we examine the stats of the primary big men on Miller's teams throughout his career? Check it out after the jump.

Continue reading this post »

This is duplicating JScot and Snake's excellent work to a certain extent, but I wanted to look at our schedule for the rest of the season and how we stack up in the race for the division title against the Nuggets.  My guesses for how things shake out are just that -- I don't have any fancy-pants statistical knowledge like those two gents -- but I think it's worthwhile to have all the remaining games in one place.

BLAZERS

3/23: PHIL  We should win this game. I'd be more worried about these guys for all the reasons Dave mentioned in his main-page post, but we've been playing great ball the last four games against teams similar to Philly's caliber.  They're on a back-to-back to boot. W, 45-26

3/26: PHO  2-0 on the homestand, here we come! Phoenix is not to be underestimated -- it's a team with proud veterans fighting for its playoff life -- but they're coming into the Garden on a back-to-back against the Jazz. They'll be exhausted from playing at altitude and from getting into Portland at 2:30 AM, and the Jazz will  have beaten them up as only a Jerry Sloan-coached team can. W, 46-26

3/28: MEM  Memphis sucks and we've been outstanding at home against bad teams all year. W, 47-26

3/31: UTAH  I think we get this win.  Utah is coming into Portland on a back-to-back after playing the high-paced Knicks the night before.  Portland is on three days' rest and will be raring to cap off the homestand before headindg out on the road. And the Jazz have been terrible on the road this year against elite WC opposition.  W, 48-26

4/03: @OKC  I don't think we'll have forgotten what  happened the last time we went to OKC.  There's not much of a chance of us looking past this game to the Rockets -- Nate will have the troops too focused for that.  The Thunder are dangerous, but I think we'll pull this one out. W, 49-26

4/05: @HOU Don't give our boys much of a shot in this one.  The Rockets have not one but two elite perimeter defenders to throw at Roy and a bevvy of middling-to-solid big men to hammer him every time he drives.  L, 49-27

4/07: @MEM Did I mention that Memphis sucks? Assuming we don't lose a heartbreaker to Houston that causes a mental letdown, the Blazers take this one. W, 50-27

4/08: @SAS  The Spurs are too good at this time of year and the Blazers are too green to go into San Antonio and steal this game, especially on a back-to-back.  L, 50-28

4/10: LAL  Tough, tough game to call. Both teams are going to be fired up after Rudygate, and the Blazers will be  jockeying for position to boot.  Lakers are on a back-to-back, playing the Nuggets in LA before flying to the Rose City.  But the first game back home after a road trip is oftentimes a tough one...my heart says W, but my brain says L, 50-29

4/11: @LAC The Clippers are the most dysfunctional team in the NBA right now...but on a back-to-back, after a hugely emotional game win OR lose against the Lakers, against a team as talented on paper as the Clippers, heading back out on the road for the last time all year, this has all the makings of a trap game. It says here that the Blazers get the win, but a L wouldn't surprise me. W, 51-29

4/13:  OKC The Thunder are playing for lottery balls. We're playing for home-court advantage.  W, 52-29

4/15: DEN Can we just for a moment imagine the atmosphere at tipoff if this, the final home game of the regular season against our division rivals, decides who wins the Northwest?  Damn this being stuck in Boston! We must win. My fandom won't allow me to consider any other possibility. W, 53-29

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NUGGETS

3/23: @ PHO  The Nuggets are starting a brutal three-game trip to Phoenix, New Orleans, and Dallas; Phoenix is riding a four-game winning streak and is fighting for its playoff life.  This one could go either way, but I'll give the nod to the Suns based mostly on the fact that they're playing at home and are desperate. L, 45-26

3/25: @NO  New Orleans has won three in a row against cupcakes, but Billups is a tough matchup for Paul.  Again, this could go either way, but I think the Nuggets will get the W, 46-26

3/27: @DAL Dallas has been really up and down over the last six games -- beating us but getting whomped by Golden State, for example.  It's a toss-up, but I think the Nuggets are the better team, and usually the better team Wins, 47-26

3/28: GS Only thing that could make this tough for the Nuggets is that they're coming off of a brutal road trip and it's a back-to-back.  I'll go ahead and give the Nuggets the W, but 3-1 through this four-game stretch would be absolutely outstanding for them. 1-3 is equally likely. 48-26

3/31: NY Don't see the Nuggets losing this game at home. W, 49-26

4/02: UTAH The Jazz will be on a day's rest after having played in Portland, the Nuggets will have rested for two days after laying the whomp-stick on the Knicks at home. Gotta give the edge to the Nuggets in that comparison, plus the Jazz suck on the road like I mentioned. W, 50-26

4/04: LAC See my comment for the 3/31 game. W, 51-26

4/05: @MIN This is the Nuggets' equivalent of the LAC game for us. Back-to-back, heading out on the road to play an inferior opponent, but one that could rise up and bite you if you don't pay enough attention.  They could drop this one, but I don't see that happening. W, 52-26

4/08: OKC The Thunder aren't going to beat the Nuggets in Denver with playoff positioning at stake. W, 53-26

4/09: @LAL At LA on a back-to-back? Ouch. L, 53-27

4/13: SAC Three days' rest against the woeful Kings at home? Chalk up a W for the guys in black hats, 54-27

4/15: @POR We're gonna win this game. Hooray! L, 54-28

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Unfortunately, 54-28 is better than 53-29.  If these projections (well, let's be honest, WAGs is more accurate) shake out, the Nuggets win the Northwest. Even a one-game swing the other way isn't enough for us to win, because the Nuggets hold the tiebreaker (which I believe is record against division opponents if head-to-head is tied).

This four-game stretch is crucial for the Nuggets then. 3-1 will effectively win them the division; 1-3 gives us the inside lane to home-court advantage. That Utah game will be key as well...I'm going to be pulling for the Jazz in that one. Utah's closing stretch, which I didn't detail here, is absolutely brutal. You can make the argument that they're only favored in 5 of their final 12 games. I'm not worried about them catching us, so I'd rather have them knock off Denver in Denver and give us some help that way.

Conversely, if we're the Blazers (and we are, right?) then we have to win every game we should win plus at LEAST one of the Hou/LAL/SAS games to really put the the heat on Denver.  Dropping those three plus one winnable game is the nail in our home-court coffin, and if we win one of those and lose a game we SHOULD win then at least we get a little bit of wiggle room. If that happens, and Denver doesn't play its best down the stretch, then we could steal the division. 

Bottom line: be scoreboard watching like crazy for the next four games. We need the Nuggets to suck in this stretch, because I think they'll make hay in their final six or seven games. And cheer like crazy for the Blazers in the Hou/SAS/LAL games, because we really, really need to get one of those to solidify our shot at home-court advantage.

Go Blazers!

An afterthought to begin the 2007-08 NBA season, the Blazers drew national attention when they streaked into 2008 riding a 13-game winning streak. By early February, Portland sat comfortably at 28-20, eight games over .500, and posters all over this board salivated at the thought of blowing the roof off the Garden in May. The Blazers proceeded to lose 7 of their next 8 road games, crated to a 13-21 finish, and ended the season nine games out of the playoffs.

Media darlings to begin the 2008-09 season, the Blazers started 2009 in impressive fashion, winning 10 of 13 in January and early February and cruising to a season-high 15 games over .500. Visions of home-court advantage in May danced like sugar plum faries among the BlazersEdge faithful. But like Sisyphus, the Blazers appeared doomed to repeat history, losing 6 out of 8 road games....................

So what's the point?

1) Missing the playoffs last season was not nearly the catastrophe it seemed to be at the time.

I was as bummed as anybody when the Blazers went in the tank. I wanted playoff basketball back in Portland so badly I could almost taste it; thinking about the roar in the Rose Garden during those first playoff player introductions gave me goosebumps. It was my opinion, shared by many around these parts, that making the playoffs and gaining that experience was integral to the Blazers' continued maturation as a team.

I was wrong. Roy has taken the leap from All-Star to All-NBA. Blake is showing that he deserves to be a starting NBA point guard. Travis added a whole new dimension -- three-point shooting -- to his game. LaMarcus continued to bulk up and develop his back to the basket repertoire. Sergio has proved, much like Martell did in his third season, that he belongs in the NBA.

All of that happened without the benefit of playoff seasoning, and it happened because we have the right elements in place for long-term success: coaching staff, front office, and ownership mutually reinforcing one another; and a young, talented, and extremely hard-working group of players. We were winning with smoke and mirrors, and the funny thing about NBA basketball in April and May is it tends to disperse smoke and break mirrors pretty quickly. Our failure to reach the loftiest achieveable goal for last season, reaching the playoffs, didn't change the fundamental fact that we have a special group brewing.

2) In a similar vein, not getting home-court advantage will not be the catastrophe it currently appears to be.

The Blazers were not a playoff team last year, despite what their record in February said; and they are not a top-four team in the West this year, despite what their record said until recently. Right now the cream is going to start separating itself from the crop, and we're still more latter than former.  We are highly unlikely to reach our loftiest achievable goal for this season -- procure home-court advantage in the playoffs -- but frankly, we're not good enough for that yet, just like last season we weren't good enough to make the playoffs. Is it frustrating to lose to a Spurs team without Duncan and Ginobli? Hell yes. But gnashing our teeth over a simple reality (we're just not a top-four team in the West -- yet) isn't going to do us any more good this season than it did last season.

3) We're not reaching for the brass ring this year.

KP had the chips and the cards, and he decided not to play. Whether or not you think that's a good decision, there is no doubt in my mind that his performance thus far merits giving him the benefit of the doubt. We could have dealt for a veteran this year and earned home-court advantage for at least the first round; KP deciding against that means that it's not a priority for him this season. Last year making the playoffs would have been icing on the cake; this year a top-four seed would be; but not making a trade indicates that for both seasons for the organization, it was and is just icing -- nothing more.

I'm impatient too. We've suffered through years of incomptence on and off the court, national embarrassment, dark days of dogfighting and drug-doing -- for the love of God, we're so close to being *back* that I can almost taste it again. But this season wasn't the year to lay the cards on the table.  Do I wish it had been? Yeah, kinda. But nothing KP and Nate have decided so far has made me doubt their vision for this team.

A Blazers championship this year was a pipe dream. And if that destination isn't feasible, then it's the journey that's most important. Let's hope that both we as fans and the team enjoy it to the fullest.