SB Nation User Blog: BlazersOrBust

Von Wafer to miss Game 6

BlazersOrBust — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 15:58:30 -0000

Von Wafer to miss Game 6

Portland sports-talk radio just reported that (Baron) Von Wafer is battling back problems and will not play tonight. I say huzzah! That guy has been a royal pain in the posterior off the bench for Houston. Anything that saps the scoring punch of their second unit and makes guys like Brooks and Artest think they have to score more to make up the difference is fine by me.

NBA.com poll shows...

BlazersOrBust — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 21:51:04 -0000

NBA.com poll shows...

With more than 52,000 votes, the Blazers are America's darlings -- 35% of all respondents pick Portland as the dark horse most likely to make some noise in the playoffs. I fully expect us to double this number in the next thirty-seven minutes. :)

shaq's not a jerk

BlazersOrBust — Sat, 28 Mar 2009 15:28:33 -0000

shaq's not a jerk

just goes to show that human beings are complicated animals. for all of his obnoxious preening on and off the court, way too many stories come out about the big cactus just like this one for me to really despise the guy. stuff like this is way more important in the grand scheme of things than him falling on joel's face.

Race for the division title: Schedule predictions

BlazersOrBust — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 15:50:09 -0000

This is duplicating JScot and Snake's excellent work to a certain extent, but I wanted to look at our schedule for the rest of the season and how we stack up in the race for the division title against the Nuggets. My guesses for how things shake out are just that -- I don't have any fancy-pants statistical knowledge like those two gents -- but I think it's worthwhile to have all the remaining games in one place.

BLAZERS

3/23: PHIL We should win this game. I'd be more worried about these guys for all the reasons Dave mentioned in his main-page post, but we've been playing great ball the last four games against teams similar to Philly's caliber. They're on a back-to-back to boot. W, 45-26

3/26: PHO 2-0 on the homestand, here we come! Phoenix is not to be underestimated -- it's a team with proud veterans fighting for its playoff life -- but they're coming into the Garden on a back-to-back against the Jazz. They'll be exhausted from playing at altitude and from getting into Portland at 2:30 AM, and the Jazz will have beaten them up as only a Jerry Sloan-coached team can. W, 46-26

3/28: MEM Memphis sucks and we've been outstanding at home against bad teams all year. W, 47-26

3/31: UTAH I think we get this win. Utah is coming into Portland on a back-to-back after playing the high-paced Knicks the night before. Portland is on three days' rest and will be raring to cap off the homestand before headindg out on the road. And the Jazz have been terrible on the road this year against elite WC opposition. W, 48-26

4/03: @OKC I don't think we'll have forgotten what happened the last time we went to OKC. There's not much of a chance of us looking past this game to the Rockets -- Nate will have the troops too focused for that. The Thunder are dangerous, but I think we'll pull this one out. W, 49-26

4/05: @HOU Don't give our boys much of a shot in this one. The Rockets have not one but two elite perimeter defenders to throw at Roy and a bevvy of middling-to-solid big men to hammer him every time he drives. L, 49-27

4/07: @MEM Did I mention that Memphis sucks? Assuming we don't lose a heartbreaker to Houston that causes a mental letdown, the Blazers take this one. W, 50-27

4/08: @SAS The Spurs are too good at this time of year and the Blazers are too green to go into San Antonio and steal this game, especially on a back-to-back. L, 50-28

4/10: LAL Tough, tough game to call. Both teams are going to be fired up after Rudygate, and the Blazers will be jockeying for position to boot. Lakers are on a back-to-back, playing the Nuggets in LA before flying to the Rose City. But the first game back home after a road trip is oftentimes a tough one...my heart says W, but my brain says L, 50-29

4/11: @LAC The Clippers are the most dysfunctional team in the NBA right now...but on a back-to-back, after a hugely emotional game win OR lose against the Lakers, against a team as talented on paper as the Clippers, heading back out on the road for the last time all year, this has all the makings of a trap game. It says here that the Blazers get the win, but a L wouldn't surprise me. W, 51-29

4/13: OKC The Thunder are playing for lottery balls. We're playing for home-court advantage. W, 52-29

4/15: DEN Can we just for a moment imagine the atmosphere at tipoff if this, the final home game of the regular season against our division rivals, decides who wins the Northwest? Damn this being stuck in Boston! We must win. My fandom won't allow me to consider any other possibility. W, 53-29

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NUGGETS

3/23: @ PHO The Nuggets are starting a brutal three-game trip to Phoenix, New Orleans, and Dallas; Phoenix is riding a four-game winning streak and is fighting for its playoff life. This one could go either way, but I'll give the nod to the Suns based mostly on the fact that they're playing at home and are desperate. L, 45-26

3/25: @NO New Orleans has won three in a row against cupcakes, but Billups is a tough matchup for Paul. Again, this could go either way, but I think the Nuggets will get the W, 46-26

3/27: @DAL Dallas has been really up and down over the last six games -- beating us but getting whomped by Golden State, for example. It's a toss-up, but I think the Nuggets are the better team, and usually the better team Wins, 47-26

3/28: GS Only thing that could make this tough for the Nuggets is that they're coming off of a brutal road trip and it's a back-to-back. I'll go ahead and give the Nuggets the W, but 3-1 through this four-game stretch would be absolutely outstanding for them. 1-3 is equally likely. 48-26

3/31: NY Don't see the Nuggets losing this game at home. W, 49-26

4/02: UTAH The Jazz will be on a day's rest after having played in Portland, the Nuggets will have rested for two days after laying the whomp-stick on the Knicks at home. Gotta give the edge to the Nuggets in that comparison, plus the Jazz suck on the road like I mentioned. W, 50-26

4/04: LAC See my comment for the 3/31 game. W, 51-26

4/05: @MIN This is the Nuggets' equivalent of the LAC game for us. Back-to-back, heading out on the road to play an inferior opponent, but one that could rise up and bite you if you don't pay enough attention. They could drop this one, but I don't see that happening. W, 52-26

4/08: OKC The Thunder aren't going to beat the Nuggets in Denver with playoff positioning at stake. W, 53-26

4/09: @LAL At LA on a back-to-back? Ouch. L, 53-27

4/13: SAC Three days' rest against the woeful Kings at home? Chalk up a W for the guys in black hats, 54-27

4/15: @POR We're gonna win this game. Hooray! L, 54-28

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Unfortunately, 54-28 is better than 53-29. If these projections (well, let's be honest, WAGs is more accurate) shake out, the Nuggets win the Northwest. Even a one-game swing the other way isn't enough for us to win, because the Nuggets hold the tiebreaker (which I believe is record against division opponents if head-to-head is tied).

This four-game stretch is crucial for the Nuggets then. 3-1 will effectively win them the division; 1-3 gives us the inside lane to home-court advantage. That Utah game will be key as well...I'm going to be pulling for the Jazz in that one. Utah's closing stretch, which I didn't detail here, is absolutely brutal. You can make the argument that they're only favored in 5 of their final 12 games. I'm not worried about them catching us, so I'd rather have them knock off Denver in Denver and give us some help that way.

Conversely, if we're the Blazers (and we are, right?) then we have to win every game we should win plus at LEAST one of the Hou/LAL/SAS games to really put the the heat on Denver. Dropping those three plus one winnable game is the nail in our home-court coffin, and if we win one of those and lose a game we SHOULD win then at least we get a little bit of wiggle room. If that happens, and Denver doesn't play its best down the stretch, then we could steal the division.

Bottom line: be scoreboard watching like crazy for the next four games. We need the Nuggets to suck in this stretch, because I think they'll make hay in their final six or seven games. And cheer like crazy for the Blazers in the Hou/SAS/LAL games, because we really, really need to get one of those to solidify our shot at home-court advantage.

Go Blazers!

An interesting parallel and lessons to be learned

BlazersOrBust — Thu, 26 Feb 2009 04:23:49 -0000

An afterthought to begin the 2007-08 NBA season, the Blazers drew national attention when they streaked into 2008 riding a 13-game winning streak. By early February, Portland sat comfortably at 28-20, eight games over .500, and posters all over this board salivated at the thought of blowing the roof off the Garden in May. The Blazers proceeded to lose 7 of their next 8 road games, crated to a 13-21 finish, and ended the season nine games out of the playoffs.

Media darlings to begin the 2008-09 season, the Blazers started 2009 in impressive fashion, winning 10 of 13 in January and early February and cruising to a season-high 15 games over .500. Visions of home-court advantage in May danced like sugar plum faries among the BlazersEdge faithful. But like Sisyphus, the Blazers appeared doomed to repeat history, losing 6 out of 8 road games....................

So what's the point?

1) Missing the playoffs last season was not nearly the catastrophe it seemed to be at the time.

I was as bummed as anybody when the Blazers went in the tank. I wanted playoff basketball back in Portland so badly I could almost taste it; thinking about the roar in the Rose Garden during those first playoff player introductions gave me goosebumps. It was my opinion, shared by many around these parts, that making the playoffs and gaining that experience was integral to the Blazers' continued maturation as a team.

I was wrong. Roy has taken the leap from All-Star to All-NBA. Blake is showing that he deserves to be a starting NBA point guard. Travis added a whole new dimension -- three-point shooting -- to his game. LaMarcus continued to bulk up and develop his back to the basket repertoire. Sergio has proved, much like Martell did in his third season, that he belongs in the NBA.

All of that happened without the benefit of playoff seasoning, and it happened because we have the right elements in place for long-term success: coaching staff, front office, and ownership mutually reinforcing one another; and a young, talented, and extremely hard-working group of players. We were winning with smoke and mirrors, and the funny thing about NBA basketball in April and May is it tends to disperse smoke and break mirrors pretty quickly. Our failure to reach the loftiest achieveable goal for last season, reaching the playoffs, didn't change the fundamental fact that we have a special group brewing.

2) In a similar vein, not getting home-court advantage will not be the catastrophe it currently appears to be.

The Blazers were not a playoff team last year, despite what their record in February said; and they are not a top-four team in the West this year, despite what their record said until recently. Right now the cream is going to start separating itself from the crop, and we're still more latter than former. We are highly unlikely to reach our loftiest achievable goal for this season -- procure home-court advantage in the playoffs -- but frankly, we're not good enough for that yet, just like last season we weren't good enough to make the playoffs. Is it frustrating to lose to a Spurs team without Duncan and Ginobli? Hell yes. But gnashing our teeth over a simple reality (we're just not a top-four team in the West -- yet) isn't going to do us any more good this season than it did last season.

3) We're not reaching for the brass ring this year.

KP had the chips and the cards, and he decided not to play. Whether or not you think that's a good decision, there is no doubt in my mind that his performance thus far merits giving him the benefit of the doubt. We could have dealt for a veteran this year and earned home-court advantage for at least the first round; KP deciding against that means that it's not a priority for him this season. Last year making the playoffs would have been icing on the cake; this year a top-four seed would be; but not making a trade indicates that for both seasons for the organization, it was and is just icing -- nothing more.

I'm impatient too. We've suffered through years of incomptence on and off the court, national embarrassment, dark days of dogfighting and drug-doing -- for the love of God, we're so close to being *back* that I can almost taste it again. But this season wasn't the year to lay the cards on the table. Do I wish it had been? Yeah, kinda. But nothing KP and Nate have decided so far has made me doubt their vision for this team.

A Blazers championship this year was a pipe dream. And if that destination isn't feasible, then it's the journey that's most important. Let's hope that both we as fans and the team enjoy it to the fullest.

Breaking: Marion to Toronto

BlazersOrBust — Fri, 13 Feb 2009 17:58:48 -0000

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=3905146

Well, the Bosh-O'Neal dream frontcourt didn't last for very long. This means that any trade sending Bosh to us will be off-limits until the summer...Coangelo just fired the biggest bullet in his gun to placate CB. Too bad for us.

75 words, divide them into thirds, man I think this rule is absurd, my loins I shall gird. BOB out.

Joel Injured

BlazersOrBust — Thu, 01 Jan 2009 20:01:34 -0000

Sorry if this has already been posted somewhere, but I don't see it...this morning's Oregonian reported that Joel has "an avulsion of the scaphoid on his left wrist". Apparently that's when a chunk of bone comes off and chills out in your hand for a while. He's questionable for Friday's game against the Hornets, but much more concerning to me than Joel possibly missing one game was the 6-8 weeks required for recovery. He's going to try to play through it, but if he can't, then he's *not* gonna be day-to-day. I'm experiencing nightmarish flashbacks to last year when we only had one big man, except worse because Greg can't stay on the court. Ugggggh.

When I was courtside -- AKA the best three hours of my life

BlazersOrBust — Wed, 24 Dec 2008 06:38:42 -0000

So through a confluence of incredibly fortunate events, three of my best friends and I were able to score courtside tickets at no cost. The seats were *siiiiick* -- two rows back, right behind the Nuggets' bench -- and in prime heckling territory, as I'll elaborate upon later. First, some general observations and player-by-player reviews, Dave-style.

The fans in the Garden should be proud of their contributions tonight. Spontaneous cheering and clapping broke out when the Blazers went flat in the middle of the first quarter in an effort to galvanize the troops. I don't even remember if it worked, truthfully, but I was impressed with the savviness of our fans. They were on their feet for the entire fourth quarter making an ear-splitting din during every consequential Nuggets possession. I can't wait -- cannot WAIT -- for playoff ball to come back to the Rose Garden. If we get home-court advantage, even if just for the first round? Look out Western Conference.
Too many three-point attempts from the good guys. I know, I know -- nine-for-28 is almost as good as shooting 50% on 2-pointers, yada yada. But too many of those attempts came after crisp ball movement left a shooter open on the weak side. The book's out on the Blazers: Denver was CHARGING out on the shooter to contest, and their defenders were contesting very well. If we head-fake and dribble-drive attack, it's gonna be a dunk or two free throws. Rudy and Trav in particular should make a note of this.
Best defensive effort I've seen all year from the Blazers. To hold a team like the Nuggets to less than 43% from the field is outstanding. It helped that with the exception of Kleiza, their jump-shooters were ice-cold, but part of that is that the Blazers were packing it in and taking away their easy looks. How many times have we seen LaMarcus get hot from the perimeter after making a few chippies in the lane? Billups, Smith, and Martin never did damage from the paint, and as a direct result they never did damage from outside. Our transition defense, after being leakier than a sieve last night, was close to airtight. Don't have the fast-break points in the box score, but I'll bet dollars to doughnuts we held the Nugs well below their season average.

*Brandon*: Just another quiet 19 and six from the Natural. I elbowed one of my buddies when B-Roy was on the stripe in the fourth quarter and told him with a grin, "Check out Brandon's line." He replied, "When the hell did THAT happen?" Performances like this show Brandon's All-Starred-Ness every bit as much as his 52-point explosion.

My one beef with Brandon is that he's hesitating too much right now (by which I mean the last two games since The Game). In my layman's opinion, it's a combination of two things: he doesn't want to alienate his teammates by being too trigger-happy, and he's getting a second defender shaded to him or an outright double-team *literally* the second he touches the ball. As soon as he receives, he's going to have to get used to dropping Meticulous Brandon and becoming Instant Attack Brandon. Twice he attacked immediately after receiving, and twice he was on the line shooting two.

*LMA*: straight beastin' tonight. 22 points, eight boards, a block, a steal -- and most importantly, 8-9 from the line. For the last half-dozen games, LaMarcus has been establishing himself in the post and THEN moving outside for the pick-and-pop. He's drawing more fouls because of it. Great outing.

*Greg*: Yeeeesh. My only comment shall be this: we have GOT to come over the top of the screen whenever Greg's man is the screener. Every time our perimeter man gets screened, Greg has to shuffle to try to contain the ball-handler driving to the hole, and he's picking up a TON of ticky-tack fouls. I'm sure the refs are watching him closely on plays like those, because he's getting zero leeway. We have to make some kind of adjustment there until he's as mobile as he's gonna be.

*Nic*: Get well soon, Marty.

*Blake*: Great (and timely!) three-point shooting. Every time the Nugs went on a run, it seemed like Blake was stepping up with a dagger...

that is, when he wasn't turning the ball over. He had a few egregious -- and I mean truly head-scratchingly bad, that-pass-wouldn't-work-in-my-pickup-games-bad -- turnovers. Uncharacteristically sloppy with the ball tonight. He'll bounce back.

*Sergio*: comes back from his worst game this year with one of his finest showings. 16 minutes, nine points, four dimes, played within complete control, and had credible defense against Billups. His decision-making off the bounce was excellent, and if Blake hadn't been so toasty from downtown, we would have seen more of him.

*Rudy*: he's KJ-lite -- just call him El Microondas. 12 points in 22 minutes off the bench, including one step-back three with the shot clock expiring that blew the roof off the Garden. Not as many scrappy plays as we're used to getting from our Spanish wonderboy, but a fine performance nevertheless.

*Trav*: man. I love Travis, except for when I hate him, and there's no in-between. His line was lousy tonight -- 24 minutes, 5 points, 2 boards, 2-8 FGA, and limited presence on the floor. He missed three wide-open threes (see my above comment about attacking the rim) that you could argue are either gonna drop most of the time or is the first indicator of regression to the mean for him. Kleiza was dropping him on the perimeter like third-period French before draining his threes. Another frustrating Travis performance.

*Joel*: give the game ball to the Thrilla. You just can't appreciate how much dirty work this guy does in the paint until you're sitting two rows back. Limited Nene's damage on the offensive glass, had K-Mart in his back pocket all game, and grabbed a ridiculous 19 rebounds in his 40 minutes. From the second it *looks* like a shot is going out, Joel is boxing out on every -- and I mean every -- possession. It's a genuine pleasure to watch him work the glass on both ends.

*Channing*: played himself back into the rotation tonight. Five points, two boards, and a steal in his 10 minutes, plus excellent defense on the Nene-Billups pick and roll while he was in the game.

As for the heckling...we were in their heads. I've never before experienced the giddy, lightheaded feeling of having an NBA player turn around and stare you down for four seconds during a timeout. The Birdman did NOT appreciate the hair, tat, and drug jokes with which he was being relentlessly bombarded. My little brother told 'Melo that he heard the refs were snitchin' and could he do something about that, provoking a staredown. Dahntae Jones gave us the look of death when, as he was edging onto the court in the fourth quarter from the bench, we informed him that he'd been so bad, edging on was the closest he was gonna get to playing for the rest of the night. We heckled J.R. Smith and 'Melo to sit down for about five minutes, causing literally the entire Nuggets bench to get to their feet in a collective "screw you" to the four of us. Finally, my favorite exchange of the night went a little something like this (and I'm sorry in advance for the disguised swearing, Dave, but it's just too sweet to leave out):

My little brother: Hey BALKMAN, you're not gonna play, so take a SEAT!

Balkman: ::turns and grabs his crotch at us::

Anonymous fan #1: Hey @******, why don't you take a seat?

Balkman: Hey *****, why don't you **** my ************* ****?

Fan #2: Hey BALKMAN, didn't HEAR you, what'd you say?

Balkman: I SAID, WHY DON'T YOU **** MY ************* ****?

At which point security intervened and everybody around us delivered congratulatory high-fives. For those of you who listened to 95.5's 5th quarter report and heard the fan call in, talking about how the Nuggets' team had no class and was swearing at kids down the stretch in the fourth quarter...we were those kids!!! Proudest moment of my life thus far.

Phew, long recap. Hell of a win, and hell of an experience sitting courtside. Go Blazers.

Boozer to miss Thursday's contest versus Blazers

BlazersOrBust — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 21:14:47 -0000

Boozer to miss Thursday's contest versus Blazers

Hooray! Boozer won't play against us tomorrow -- strained left quadriceps. Good news for LMA and Greg.

Beno Udrih?

BlazersOrBust — Sat, 07 Jun 2008 13:41:19 -0000

What's up guys,

I prowl the SBNation over at BlazersEdge and I joined here to ask you, well-informed and intelligent Kings fans that you are, the pluses and minuses of Beno Udrih's game. Unless I'm mistaken, he's a UFA this year...and I'm quite certain I'm not mistaken about the Blazers needing an upgrade at PG.

So what's the deal with Udrih? Is he part of the Kings' future plans? After he came on strong in the second half of the year following the Bibby deal, I would have thought that he'd be the heir presumptive to the Bibby throne, but all the mocks I've been reading have the Kings going after D.J. Augustin or Russell Westbrook. Is Petrie gonna resign him, and if so at what kind of contract in terms of years/money? If he's not being targeted for resigning, why not?

Basically all I know about Udrih is he was a great waiver-wire pickup for my fantasy teams. Break him down for me, if you please, Sactown Royalty. Thanks!