SB Nation User Blog: BlazersOrBust

Beno Udrih?

BlazersOrBust — Sat, 07 Jun 2008 13:41:19 -0000

What's up guys,

I prowl the SBNation over at BlazersEdge and I joined here to ask you, well-informed and intelligent Kings fans that you are, the pluses and minuses of Beno Udrih's game. Unless I'm mistaken, he's a UFA this year...and I'm quite certain I'm not mistaken about the Blazers needing an upgrade at PG.

So what's the deal with Udrih? Is he part of the Kings' future plans? After he came on strong in the second half of the year following the Bibby deal, I would have thought that he'd be the heir presumptive to the Bibby throne, but all the mocks I've been reading have the Kings going after D.J. Augustin or Russell Westbrook. Is Petrie gonna resign him, and if so at what kind of contract in terms of years/money? If he's not being targeted for resigning, why not?

Basically all I know about Udrih is he was a great waiver-wire pickup for my fantasy teams. Break him down for me, if you please, Sactown Royalty. Thanks!

Sixth Man Award ballots are in!...

BlazersOrBust — Mon, 21 Apr 2008 17:39:10 -0000

....and it's Manu in a landslide. One hundred and twenty-three of 124 first-place votes. Barbosa was a distant second, Terry a barely-on-the-board third. No word on where Travis finished in the voting. My two cents -- it's robbery that Terry's ahead of him. He tailed off badly in the middle/towards the end of the season, and Travis hit a legion of clutch shots that apparently didn't get factored in by, well, anybody.

http://www.nba.com/news/sixthman_080421.html

[Edit: I first posted ESPN.com's link. NBA.com has the full results -- Travis finished with a whopping 11 points, behind such luminaries as One-Trick-Pony-Pretty-Boy Kyle Korver and Didn't-He-Already-Piggyback-His-Way-To-ONE-Ring? James Posey. I'm not bitter.]

Rudy's impending arrival raises questions

BlazersOrBust — Thu, 03 Apr 2008 22:46:30 -0000

That 90% figure sounds like savvy media-work to me (hat tip to SpyderRyder for the timely diary immediately below) -- Rudy Fernandez will be a member of the Portland Trail Blazers next year.

However...he just may arrive as a player with a few strings attached. This has recent historical precedent; it's fairly common knowledge that Yi only acquiesced to playing in Milwaukee after receiving a playing time guarantee from Bucks management. According to the article cited in SR's diary, Rudy is requesting significant playing time to offset the economic losses he'll be suffering by coming in on the rookie salary scale.

Which raises the question...to what extent should Blazers brass take into account Fernandez's desire? If Rudy says, "I'm not coming unless you guarantee me 20-25 minutes a night", should KP and Nate capitulate? On the one hand, it sends a lousy message to the rest of the team that minutes ought to be earned and not doled out like Middle-Age indulgences; on the other hand, Rudy has every right to lay out his own terms and put the ball in the Blazers' court, especially considering the money he's leaving on the table. Does the potential exist for KP and Nate to clash on this issue? -- KP might very well be of a different mind about guaranteed playing time than the coaching staff.

Considering Sergio's somewhat tenuous situation here and Rudy coming over with certain court-time expectations that may not be met, I could see our Spanish contingent being quite upset with the red-and-black next year.

Trade Travis?

BlazersOrBust — Thu, 06 Mar 2008 18:23:33 -0000

I'm not necessarily advocating this position -- but as I started to reply to the main-page thread about our bubble youngsters, I began to think that there are a few reasons to consider it. Hear me out, BE, and then tell me what I've missed.

1) As of now, our depth chart for next year 2-4 looks something like this. 2: Roy/Jack/Rudy/Martell; 3: Martell/JJ2/Trout. 4: LMA/Trout/Frye. All together, now, "Minute crunch!" Even if Jack gets traded, Martell still won't be getting more than a couple of minutes a game at the 2 -- if that, with Roy playing 40 minutes a game and Rudy vacuuming up his scraps. In addition, Martell lacks the ball-handling skills to be an effective 2, which by default slides him up to the 3.

Martell (28 mpg) and Jones (23 mpg) ought to combine for about 40 mpg next season, leaving 8 at the SF for Travis. Now let's say LMA averages 36 minutes a game next season: a reasonable estimate, as he's at 34.2 in his first full season as a starter. Even if Frye gets traded, that's still only 12 minutes a game for Outlaw backing up the 4 and 20 total -- more than a 25% decrease in his playing time from this season. His value as a trading chip will likely never be higher than it is right now, and that value will fall concordant with the decline of his minutes.

Proceeding from 1 begs the question: will Travis be worth more to us getting spot minutes backing up the 3 and 4, or as a trading chip to address a position of greater need -- like, for example, that glaring hole in our backcourt? I think valid arguments can be made for both sides, but what if we could trade Outlaw, Jack, and our number one for a signed-and-traded Calderon? I think that's a deal Toronto would certainly consider. Wouldn't Calderon/Roy/Martell/LMA/Oden and Blake/Rudy/JJ2/Frye/Pryz plus whatever picks we buy and whichever second-rounders pan out be a dang good team?
Here's our second unit as of next year: Jack/Sergio, Rudy, JJ2, Outlaw, Pryz. Two things jump out at me. Number one, we're gonna be hucking jumpers all day long, and number two, we're gonna get absolutely pounded on defense and on the boards. Playing that sieve-like group of perimeter defenders who offer weak rebounding means that we need at least two guys who are going to offer intimidation, rebounding, and interior defense. We have one and Trav ain't it.

We could trade the other guys for lockdown perimeter defenders who can rebound and keep Travis...or we can trade Travis, our most valuable, realistically movable trade chip, for an answer at the one and find a rugged PF to plug in his place in the second unit -- going a long way towards answering the doubts framed above in the first paragraph of 3). Maxiell, Millsap, and more recently Landry were all second-rounders within the last two years who fit this description perfectly. I see no reason why KP can't find a similar player given our abundance of second-round picks this year.

So that's one side of the argument. What's the other?

Simmons: Kidd to Blazers?

BlazersOrBust — Fri, 22 Feb 2008 22:26:10 -0000

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/080223

Now this is interesting. Everybody's favorite columnist is back for Round 2, and this time he's dishing juicy rumors from the All-Star weekend. Page down to the first bullet point after number three. Here's the teaser to whet your interest: "One other note on Kidd that everyone missed: The most logical home for him was Portland." He proceeds to outline a possible deal and explains why he likes it.

I'll present my own thoughts about this shortly, but in the interest of not prejudicing the discussion with the sheer brilliance of my pontifications, I offer it first to you, my BE compatriots. Read that linked paragraph -- whadda y'all say?

Simmons posits Blazers trade suggestion

BlazersOrBust — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 00:39:16 -0000

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/blog/index?name=simmons&entryDate=20080220

Go read it. I insist. Just make sure that you have a trash can handy, cuz I just projectile-vomited all over my computer screen and I wanna save you, my BE friends, from the same fate. For a guy who calls himself an NBA expert and the Picasso of the trade machine...paint-by-numbers maybe. This trade is awful. Awful.

Kidd Trade Official

BlazersOrBust — Tue, 19 Feb 2008 17:45:37 -0000

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=3253107

Great deal for the Mavs. I think Harris will be a very good player for the Nets, but Kidd's a first-ballot HOF PG with Finals experience and a lot of gas still in the tank. I've thought for a long time that a Dirk-led team would never win anything significant, and this trade is gonna give Dallas a new leader come playoff time. They're more dangerous now than the new-look L*kers.

A Rudy Introspective

BlazersOrBust — Fri, 08 Feb 2008 19:31:29 -0000

...or more accurately, some half-baked thoughts generalizing from one game. Rudy's DKV Joventut squad just ran roughshod over Pamesa Valencia 85-59 (I believe was the final score). I watched the game -- more accurately, watched our boy -- and jotted down some observations on each of his offensive possessions and plays in which he was involved defensively. They are as follows.

OFFENSE

Rudy is an exceptionally tough cover for ACB defenders. His shot chart says it all: 3/3 on two-pointers, 5/5 from the line, 3/6 from deep totaling a game-high 20. He has a very quick release on his jumper making it difficult to block; this is a good thing, as he gets little elevation before shooting. I would expect some initial struggles with his jump shot as he acclimates himself to the greater speed, length, and hops of NBA defenses. That being said, Fernandez has no trouble knocking down jumpers with a hand on his face: all three of his threes were contested. He has NBA range on his jump shot.

Rudy demanded the ball three times in the first half with the shot clock winding down and delivered all three times, twice sinking contested threes and once setting up a teammate with a nice drive-and-dish, though he didn't convert. He should be an excellent bail-out option on the second unit after plays break down.

Fernandez shows very good ability to hit jumpers off the dribble: one three-pointer came after a right-to-left crossover, and another after two hard dribbles right to beat his defender. He sank the one mid-range jumper he attempted off the dribble, but seemed more comfortable either slashing or shooting threes. Fernandez slashes to the basket well, attacking his defender with either left or right-hand dribbles, although he appears more comfortable going and finishing right. Despite lacking upper-body strength, he exhibits superior body control, allowing him to finish after contact: he converted one three-point play and made another layup after getting bumped (no whistle) on a fast break. Twice Rudy pulled down rebounds, went coast-to-coast, and drew shooting fouls in transition. He attacks the basket better during transition than in the half-court, where he's more content to settle for threes.

Rudy is not blindingly fast in vertical speed, nor is he exceptionally quick laterally, but his herky-jerky dribbling style combined with a surprising initial burst allow him to beat defenders off the bounce. A caveat: never once did I see Fernandez penetrate in the half-court without the aid of a screener, and just based on my observations of this game, I would have strong doubts about his ability to break his NBA man down one-on-one like we see Brandon do in late-game situations -- at least initially.

Rudy is a very good passer on the fast break. He twice hit teammates streaking for layups with half-court passes, including one sidearm baseball pass that split three defenders and would have made any SportsCenter clip. He is also a good passer in the halfcourt, tallying three consecutive assists -- two alley-oops -- in the fourth quarter to push the game out of reach. That being said, he's a poor passer off the dribble-drive: once he's driving, it's a very safe bet that a shot's going up, and he twice missed teammates flashing to the basket for an easy dump-off layin while driving.

Rudy's movement off the ball is poor. He doesn't look to utilize screens for curl-and-pops like Hamilton or Martell, nor does he attempt to cut backdoor or V-cut to receive passes. This may be a reflection of the team's offensive philosophy or his teammates' inability to effectively find him in these situations, but even when he shared the court with Ricky Rubio, he still loitered on the wing until the ball was swung to him. With his quick release and good balance on his jumper, this ought to be an easy element for him to incorporate next year if he doesn't already possess it.

He occasionally gets trigger-happy: all three of his misses from deep were bad shots. One came just seconds into the shot clock after one pass, one was from two feet outside of an NBA three, and one was off a fast break with an easy lane to penetrate to the basket available. He only turned the ball over twice -- one of the knocks against him in the NBAdraft.net profile is that he needs to take care of the ball better, but I didn't see that.

DEFENSE

Rudy will not do wonders for our defense next year -- though he looked significantly more comfortable playing zone than man-to-man, which is a good fit with our current defensive scheme. Three times he was isolated on the wing and attacked off the dribble, and three times he was blown by. While his defensive anticipation was good, his lateral quickness is not. Between his lack of upper-body strength and average lateral footspeed, I'd expect most NBA 2's to eat his lunch next year, and forget any lineups that have Rudy defending ones.

Playing the wing in a 2-3 zone, he shows very good awareness and activity in the passing lanes. He deflected numerous passes and has long arms and good instincts. Several times he read the move of the opposing center (matched up against the center of the zone), slid down from the wing, and forced turnovers with a travel or ripping the ball away. After gambling into the passing lanes, Rudy recovers quickly, though he gave up several baskets gambling in this fashion.

His defensive rotations are average to subpar, though when he commits to defense -- as he did at the start of the third quarter, when the opposing team had cut the lead to four -- he is capable of playing excellent team defense. His lapses appear to be a combination of occasional loss of focus and desire, which is understandable as he's the number one offensive threat.

REBOUNDING

Rudy's rebounding needs to improve. He relies too much on his above-average athletic ability and length to grab rebounds, seldom boxing out. He'll fit right in here next year -- every time a shot goes up, he turns his head to watch the flight of the ball rather than putting a body on his man. His side of the floor gave up a disproportionate number of offensive rebounds. Two of the three fouls for which he was whistled came on loose-ball fouls where he gave up inside position. Save for one excellent tip-in on a missed free throw, he doesn't crash the offensive glass. Rudy does have a good nose for the ball -- he reads the flight of the ball well and tracked down two long rebounds coming from the other side of the floor. But when Shammond Williams is beating you on the offensive boards, you know you've got a problem. More than Rudy's defensive deficiencies, his rebounding concerned me. He showed that when focused, he was very capable of playing sound team defense, if not the ability to shut someone down one-on-one; never once did he show the same tenacity to rebound, nor an understanding of rebounding fundamentals. Nate and Mo will have to pound the importance of this into him next year, I think.

All right, I've got some thoughts about how we might end up using Rudy and how his transition to the NBA will be at first, but this is plenty long enough already. Keep in mind that I'm far from an NBA scout and this is only just what I've gleaned from watching one game and comparing it against a few draft profiles I've read about him, so don't shred me too bad.

The Darius Conspiracy

BlazersOrBust — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 18:09:14 -0000

And I'm not talking about he and his buddies stealing the SAT either. The following is an excerpt of the McRoberts diary, but it spun off-topic and I think it's interesting enough to warrant its own discussion. The first part is Timbo's post: the second is my reply.

I don't know what's up with Miles...
BECAUSE THERE IS A CONCENTRATED NEWS BLACKOUT COMING FROM THE BLAZERS AND THEIR EMPLOYEES AND EVEN THE BEAT REPORTERS WHO COVER THE TEAM.
No one says a thing about Miles.
About Oden: willing to talk all day.
I still say they're intent on scamming an insurance company, so it's all hush-hush on orders from the top. That's the only thing that makes sense to me.
t

You know
the first time you posed this suggestion I brushed it off. My initial reaction was, "But T-bone, that simply doesn't jive with the new-look, warm-and-fuzzy Blazers who I so dearly love!" But the more I think about it, the more I find myself starting to agree with you.

Obviously there are differences in their situations: Miles is a link to the sordid past and Oden's the incipient franchise savior, to put it simplistically. Oden makes people feel all gooey inside and he's more important to the future of our team than Miles, so it makes sense that Oden's rehab would be more publicized -- but only to a point.

And the absence of even a peep from One Center Court about Miles' playing status or rehab progress well surpasses that point. All we've heard is that Darius isn't ready yet. Darius and his agent say otherwise. How close is he? What is he lacking physically? How much contact has he had with the team? Does the team want him back or are they indifferent? Why the dichotomy between Miles' camp and that of the Blazers? All of those are valid and relatively interesting questions, and they haven't been addressed in any kind of detail.

I'm a editor for our school newspaper -- when it comes to D-III sports, you're always on the lookout for a decent storyline. "Wayward basketball player with massive potential loses fan base, gets injured, matures in his absence from the game and realizes how much he loves to play, rehabs hard to become the final piece of the flourishing puzzle and win back the fans" is an awesome tack to take; that could easily be a successful multi-part feature. The Oregonian is a hell of a lot better at my job than I am -- so where in the name of Jove has that story been? I'm with you, Timbo, something doesn't jive here.

--------------------------------------------------

Where is the Darius news? Why are the team and the media keeping the fans woefully underinformed about his rehab and playing situation? I strongly, strongly doubt that journalistic ethics would permit the beat writers to be in cahoots with the team, like T suggests, but aside from that I smell a rat.

I just don't understand

BlazersOrBust — Fri, 01 Feb 2008 18:08:43 -0000

We are 18 months removed from the nadir of the existence of the Portland Trail Blazers. That season, that "team" lost three out of every four games in such a nonchalant, disjointed, and dispirited fashion that it was a shame to call yourself a Blazers fan. Those players simply didn't give two rips -- not for each other, not for each other, and certainly not for us, the fans.

When that squad wasn't getting annihilated on the court, they were embarrassing themselves off of it. Patterson demanded a guaranteed 25 minutes a night or a trade and openly defied McMillan's authority as coach. Telfair "mistakenly" brought a loaded handgun on the team plane. Cars registered to Randolph were drag-racing in a 20-MPH zone. Randolph was investigated for felonious sexual assault. And our three-headed Cerebus of a front office was an incompetent joke.

And the people of Portland were disgusted. Disgusted with the open contempt the players displayed towards the coach and the organization, fed up with turning on KATU at 5:00 and seeing another off-court incident being reported, flat tired of cheering for a team that didn't respect them nor each other. The Blazers played before an indifferent, half-full Garden every night; Kobe and LeBron got louder cheers than any Blazers player; Paul Allen made serious attempts to sell the team. Eighteen months ago we were scouring the details of the Rose Garden's lease and evaluating the likelihood of the NBA approving a relocation request.

And now, eighteen months later, we stand on the brink of a dynasty. We have one of the brightest up-and-coming coaches in the game, a roster brimming from top to bottom with young talent, a general manager with the touch of King Midas, and a rejuvenated owner willing to spend whatever it takes to bring a championship to Portland. I've been in the Garden this year when fans were blowing the roof off for a regular-season game in December. It gives me goosebumps to recall now.

Yet somehow, in a fashion that truly boggles my mind, I've read on this site -- one of the most knowledgeable, passionate basketball sites I've found on the web -- diaries calling for Nate's head on a platter. Posters excoriating Frye, Jack, Sergio, and Webster, demanding their trades or outright releases. Casting aspersions over the entire roster and coaching staff when we lose a game. Saying they're tired of making excuses for this team.

I'm sick and tired of it. Remember where we were 18 months ago and look at where we are now. We ought to be thanking our lucky stars on bended knee every single night -- that this franchise has resurrected itself from its ashes and recaptured the full devotion of every single Blazers fan in a year and a half. There are franchises that have been "rebuilding" for the past decade.

I get up at 3:30 am to watch streaming video of this team live because I don't want to miss a second of it, and I'm not saying it to toot my own horn -- I know I'm not the only one here doing it, or who would do it if necessary. And if a 21-year-old isn't a consistent shooter yet, or a foreign point guard learning a new style and a new language yo-yos up-and-down, or if we lose a game on a last-second layup by the best player in the world...a dash of perspective might be warranted here. Because 18 months ago, the buzz, enthusiasm, and accolades that the Portland Trail Blazers now garner from every corner of the nation would have seemed a fantastical mirage.