GOG 50

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Probable Pitchers

Series Preview

3 wins by the A's keeps all the bubbly in the bottles as the Rangers won't clinch. Of course, since FJM had their reunion yesterday, there may be things scattered in the GOG.

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This was last series:

via www.half-right.com

So, let's forget about those stupid Yankees.and just crush some Angels.

Probable Pitchers

Score your last GOG

GOG 44

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So now, coming off series wins vs. Cleveland and where pitchers go to die in Arlington, we now head to Yankee Stadium, which is also a bandbox.

Now, I've had the opportunity to attend a game (not an A's game though :()  in Yankee Stadium last year, as while I was visiting a friend in NYC, he had planned to go to a game with his girlfriend, but something happened and they couldn't go and he had a spare ticket. So I ended up going in her place. The both of us did, however, almost get banished from the stadium for having a smoke (not in the stands, in a secluded spot). I hate the Yankees because they buy titles, but they have a nice stadium.

0_0

Well, onto actual GOG stuff.

EDIT EDIT: Oh, and Links! Because I forgot to add them and Micdog pointed it out.

Series previewz

Score your old GOGs

GOG 43

via www.thesunblog.com

Now, on to the questions.

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and all of the first 14 picks

MIDNIGHT EDIT  CABRERA AND LEWIS ARE SIGNED per twitter

OaklandAs    #Athletics agree to terms with Aaron Shipman (3rd round) and Chad Lewis (4th round) from the #mlbdraft. A's sign each of first 14 picks.

twitter.com/OaklandAs

EDIT EDIT EDIT EDIT THE A'S SIGNED YORDY CABRERA FOR 1.25 MM ala Keith Law's twitter:

  Oakland signs Yordy Cabrera for $1.25 million.

http://twitter.com/keithlaw

The draft deadline is this tonight here, Monday, August 16, at Midnight EST ( 9PM PST for non-NRAFs)

Michael Choice has signed, for 2MM, as outlined here. 2MM is also around recommended slot bonus for , so you want to think that this bodes well for signing Yordy Cabrera and the other over slot guys, Lewis and Shipman. I'm just going to dump some really good A's specific draft coverage from John Sickels and Andy Seiler. 

Sickels' 2010 A's draft review

Andy Seiler's draft review

Seiler on Yordy Cabrera

Seiler on Aaron Shipman

Seiler on Chad Lewis

Yordy's the big get here, but I think Billy and co. nail this.

There's also this nifty Baseball America draft overview podcast, which I haven't listened to any portion of yet since ActiveX isn't compatible with Kubuntu. :  here

Also, any predictions on who signs/doesn't sign?

Oh, this is also a  DLD, so dump away y'all.

So, yeah, at least we can pitch. And we're not dealing with Zack Greinke.

LINKS:

GOG 35

GOG 34

report your GOGs!

Probable Pitchers

Series Preview, complete with lulz-worthy quotes about Ben Sheets being the "staff ace"

Me do GOG pretty one day? Let's get into questions.

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Roy Halladay is very good. Cliff Lee is very good.

This trade is insanely, insanely mind-boggling, and thus I had to bust out the numbers. This is a trade so epically confusing that I had to actually

So, I am going to use Sky's awesome,amazing, Trade Value Calculator, located here, to see how everything plays out. And provide some commentary, of course. Bah, I really should be sleeping right now.

Part One: The Aces:

First, the surplus value of Roy Halladay: (WAR values from Fangraphs)

He has about $21.2MM worth of surplus value, this including draft pick compensation.

Now, he is signing an awesome extension, supposedly worth 3/60. This is because Toronto provided Philly with an extension window, in which. The extension window does, indeed, have value. However, I do not know how to quantify, or remotely estimate, this value, which is one of the reasons I'm posting this thing. If his extension is 3/60, the Phillies would be paying an average of 20MM/yr for him. Which, although it is below his performance value, I can count the number of pitchers who have contracts with AAVs above 20MM on one hand.

Also, ANY player who is approaching free agency has an exclusive negotiating window with his team; it is the period before free agency officially begins.

Now, Lee.

Lee's got a 23.4MM surplus value. The WAR projections for Lee and Doc were both equally conservative, especially considering league adjustments. You could add 0.5 WAR to Doc or Lee as you see fit.

The big shocker was that Lee, ultimately, has more surplus value than Doc. But, the difference between the salaries is greater than general win values, which is about 4- 4.5MM.  [Salary data from Cot's, btw]

Generally speaking, Halladay represents a 1 WAR upgrade over Lee, maybe greater.

Part Two: The Prospects:

I'm going to value the prospects based on Victor Wang's research on prospect valuation, summarized here and here in the Roy Halladay context . I'm going to be very conservative with the prospect rankings, factoring in BA's mid-season top 25, John Sickels' preseason grades and mid-season reviews, and a little eyeballing of who's risen and fallen on these lists, along with where '09 draftees may rank on these lists (pretty much, if someone is on the fringe between two stratas of value, they get bumped down). Yeah, this is freaking rough. Here is what I'm gleaning.

Phillippe Aumont: [Top 76-100 pitcher]: $9.8MM

Juan Ramirez: [Grade B pitcher]: $7.3MM

Tyson Gillies: [Grade C hitter 22 or younger]: $0.7MM

Travis D'Arnaud: [Grade B hitter] : $5.5MM

Kyle Drabek: [Top 26-50 pitcher]: $15.9MM

Michael Taylor: [Top 26-50 hitter]: $23.4MM

I'm especially unsure on Aumont and Ramirez, especially since their pedestrian numbers came in an extreme hitters' park.

Sources:

BA Phillies 2010 Top 10  (they haven't released them for AL teams yet)

BA MIdseason Top 25 (Drabek = #24, Taylor = #23)

Sickels' Mariners '09 Prospects:

Part Three: The Results:

Now, the tables!

Philly:

Gives: 44.8MM surplus value (Drabek, Taylor, and D'Arnaud) + 23.4MM surplus value (Lee) = 68.2MM value

Gets: 39MM surplus value (Halladay, Aumont, Ramirez, Gillies) + 6MM salary relief = 45MM value

Net: 23.2MM deficit

Seattle:

Gives: 17.8MM surplus value (Aumont, Ramirez, and Gillies)

Gets: 23.4MM of surplus value (Lee)

Net: 5.6MM surplus

Toronto:

Gives: $21.2MM surplus value (Halladay) + 6MM salary relief = 27.2MM value

Gets: $44.8MM surplus value (Drabek, Taylor, and D'Arnaud)

Net: 17.6MM surplus

Of course, you can factor in increased playoff probability for Seattle and Philadelphia. Also, of course, the increased marginal value of a win, since each additional win is worth more for a contending team than a non (Dave Cameron explains it here). 

Toronto and Seattle clearly came out on top, as Seattle gave up less long-term value than they received, which is very, very rare. Toronto received a massive, massive amount of surplus value and two players who should put them back on the map pretty soon.

Philly, on the other hand, paid dearly for a 1 WAR improvement. Despite the fact that they're a contending team and have the payroll resources to overpay for wins, this was a massive overpay. They paid about 23.2MM for an upgrade that will be about 1.5 WAR at best.

Of course, there is the quantifiable value of an extension window. Which is a question in and of itself. The obvious upgrade which the Phillies receive for 2011-2013, at a team friendly price, must be worth something, especially since the Phils negotiated the extension before the trade went through.

It is very possible that Halladay will produce 23.2MM of surplus value throughout the tenure of his extension. A very, very tall order considering his age, but very plausible.

This isn't "OMG FIRE AMARO" bad, but its questionable at best for Philly.

DISCLAIMER: Yes, I know the deal is still tentative. Hah.

I feel as if this is A's related, since it pertains to two of our division rivals significantly changing.

So, yeah, looks like the slegnA won't get their ace, as 3 (!!!) have just changed hands.

Top free agent pitcher John Lackey is said to be in agreement on a five-year, $85 million contract with the Boston Red Sox, sources say. Lackey has scheduled a physical with the team.

Lackey's deal with the Red Sox is similar to the $82.5 million, five-year contract A.J. Burnett got with the Yankees last offseason. "That's what they were looking for,'' an AL executive said.

Lackey has had a couple minor issues with his shoulder and back in recent seasons, so the Red Sox will want to check him out. But nothing serious is expected to be found.

Sports Illustrated - source

I see this as a massive overpay for the Red Sox, as Lackey's got shoulder issues. But then, this is the Red Sox, so "massive overpay" sounds about par, although Theo Epstein generally isn't the one to massively overpay for players (exception given to Dice-K).

And, yeah, a massive 3 teamer where Halladay is to the Phillies, Cliff Lee goes to the M's, and prospects (from both teams, most likely) go to the Jays, has been agreed on.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/12/roy-halladay-rumors-monday-1.html

Yes, I'm linking to MLBtr. I'll update once a non-twitter source posts.

And, the Mariners are looking like the favorites to win the division.

Although, I'm heavily skeptical of the 3 teamer, as it is absolutely ridiculous. What would the M's be giving the Jays? Ackley can't be traded as a PTBNL, nor can any '09 draftee yet. Phillippe Aumont?, Michael Pineda?, Michael Saunders? Carlos Triunfel? This will be interesting to see what the Jays get.

EDIT (5:12 PM PST): Well, now Drabek's involved, and Aumont might not be. And Happ may be involved, and Domonic Brown may be involved, and our own favorite Cupcakes Blanton may be involved. Who's involved? This is insane.

Filling in here, minor league updates, here you go. First time doing this, so hope the formatting isn't too screwy

Oh, Chris Carter, Matt Spencer, and Travis Banwart swept the Texas League Player of the Week awards, again (Carter, Jason Fernandez, and Arnold Leon were the players last week). 

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EDIT:  OCab is gone!  The Twins have acquired OCab for SS prospect Tyler Ladenorf: LINK

Rated-R Superstar summed up the OCab-Twins talk here.  Pretty much, the two sides are making progress and its somewhat likely OCab is a Twin. And Ron Gardenhire likes O-Cab. I just thought putting all the trade deadline stuff in one place, since today is one of the most important non-playoff days of the season (the draft days are the other). Post updates, etc, here. Packaging OCab with Springer to get more prospects from the Twins, since they do need bullpen help, might be wise.

Re: Springer/Cardinals: It's unlikely:

Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak downplayed the possibility of acquiring relief help before today's 3 p.m. waiver deadline.

The Cardinals remain interested in set-up relief help but may find a match after today.

"I don't see anything happening in the near term," Mozeliak said.

"There is a possibility something may come along after (today), but there is also a significant chance that nothing happens."

Other thoughts:

• Getting the Twins to overpay for OCab would be nice and pleasant.
  
•  Springer and/or one of Wuertz/Ziegler might also be traded, as many others know. Obviously, Wuertz or Ziegler should only be moved if the price is right, and by no means should both be moved, but if someone offers a top 3B/SS prospect, do it. Springer is a solid reliever and an impending FA who's likely to accept arbitration if offered, so if the A's aren't planning on forking 3MM over for a middling reliever (which they shouldn't), trying to trade Springer would be smart. But then, he does have leadership qualities and I'd rather Geren NOT get any more excuses to blow out the arms of Bailey and Wuertz (if he stays). Having Springer to soak up innings with how young and Verducci-risky the rotation is.
  
• Halladay hopefully is a Ranger. Now, before I get lambasted for wanting the Rangers to seriously upgrade their team and reel in arguably the best pitcher in baseball,  I'm getting a kick out of the idea of breaking up the Rangers' big four and one, most likely two, of the Smoak/Perez/Feliz/Holland crew going to Toronto, namely Smoak (hell, Smoak + a bunch of Texas's non top 3 guys will be good). The Rangers probably won't extend him, as Doc has expressed desire to try the FA market and the Yanks/Red Sux/Mets/Dodgers are lurking there to pry the Doc away or at least jack up his price. I know he's a prospect and could very easily be a bust, but not having to deal with (a really cheap) Smoak in 2011 if he hits his ceiling and 5 other years will make it easier for the A's to win a few division titles in those years. Oh, and maybe some payroll issues that might lead to the Rangers not signing Purke/Scheppers, who are massively overslot draft picks. I don't dislike the Rangers and really really want them to win the West or at least take the WC away from the Yanks/Red Sox. But Smoak out of the AL West is a good thing as far as prospects go.Deal with Doc in 2010, since 2009 is kinda done in terms of playoffs for the GNG. Oh, and I'd infinitely more like the Rangers to win the West this year than those pesky slegnA and their stupid rally monkeys.
  
• Oh. There's also talk about Victor Martinez, Adrian Gonzalez, and a bunch of other guys. Maybe one of those two going to Boston, since Papi's showing off that he's done.
  
• Anything else? Trade predictions? Post away!

So, an interesting name has been getting thrown around AN...this guy by the name of Ben Sheets. I think the absolute highest he gets in this market is 2/30, and I could see him getting 2/20 or a 1/15 type deal (which is why he should have accepted arbitration). For the sake of proving points, I'll stick to the high estimate and say 2/30. Now that the retirement home across the Bay has signed Randy Johnson, who would've been my number 1 FA starter choice, let's go to Sheets, shall we?

1. Interest in the pitcher has been tepid, at best. Which means, he is likely to come at a major bargain price.

When interest is tepid, we all know what happens. Kyle Lohse 2008 happens (even though Sheets is eons of a better pitcher than Lohse). Demands come down. Players become bargains.  Two teams have stuck out as potential contenders for Sheets: the Rangers and the Braves. One could also see the Brewers resigning Sheets, but

However, I could see the Rangers also waiting until they have the albatrosses known as Vicente Padilla and Kevin Millwood off the books in 2010 to pursue a free agent starter. And, if I've heard correctly, the Rangers are not raising payroll, which would bar a major FA signing like Sheets. They also do not have an offer out to Sheets yet, although they are rumored to be the frontrunners for the pitcher.

And then, there are the Braves. First of all, why haven't we heard more about the Braves' interest in Sheets. If the injury risk truly is scaring them away, then why were they making offers to another injury prone player, who I will not name in this post. I'm confused myself as to why they're not in on Sheets. Has Mike Hampton really scared them off that much?

2. He doesn't have to be healthy for the entire duration of his contract to be worth the bucks.

He is a 4.5-5 win player per season if he pitches 200 innings. Here's a chart.  We're going to use the very generous contract estimation of 2/30, when, if the market for Sheets is really as dry as it looks, he'll probably be landable on less.

Now, pretend his contract is for 2/30, which is a high estimate looking at the market. There might be an option involved, but that will be contingent on performance. Let's say that the market rate for one WAR is about 5MM (it was 4.5MM in '08, and is probably bound to increase. If it does not increase as much, then the value goes down, but the contract will still benefit the A's.). That means, that at 5MM/win, he would have to accumulate 6 WAR to be worth the money. And that, my friends, is pretty damn likely.

Assuming he maintains his 2008 FIP of 3.34 (tRA = 3.45), that is. At that level, he would have to pitch about 267 innings total (133.5 IP per season average) assuming 4.5 WAR per season. At 4 WAR, he'd have to pitch 300 innings over the duration of his contract (150 IP/season) to accumulate the 6 WAR paid for.

And, he's a safe bet to hit 140-150 IP per season, as he has hit 150 in all but 2 years of his career (and just barely missed in one year, throwing 141.1 IP).  Chart!

I love draft picks like none other, but if a player has the upside of representing a 3-4 win upgrade for your team (and is likely to reach that upside). And, the A's keep their first rounder, and have the potential to gain two first rounders (Holliday + Sheets) and two supplemental picks from them leaving in the next two years. Although that is an ideal situation, as what happened with CC/Burnett could happen or a crappy team signs one of the two, etc. Although if Sheets keeps up his innings totals, he'll be a near lock for Type A. One can assume fairly around  replacement level production from the 5th starter spot (I don't think Gio is ready for MLB yet, which means rotation as of now is Duke-Gallagher-Eveland-Braden-Outman. Unless you see massive breakouts from Outman, Braden, and Eveland, one will probably be worth one win or less, or two wins at the most). He'd be a bigger upgrade than putting an all-bat, no glove guy at 1B, etc IMO. 

Rosenthal:

The Angels are out of the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes.

The team has withdrawn its offer to the free-agent slugger, according to a source close to the negotiations.

So, this is good news for the A's, absolutely.

Keeping Teixeira, 28, was the Angels' top priority. The team now figures to explore other free-agent pursuits, including the possible signing of left-handed closer Brian Fuentes.

That's also good. Even if Fuentes' price drops, it is the unnecessary throwing of funds to paying for a closer/relief stud, when Arredondo is more than fitting to do the job. And, it does not address any of the slegnA offensive issues. Which, again, is an excellent idea to begin with. And, Joey Devine will outperform Fuentes in '09 anyways. :-P

Tim Brown of Yahoo also reporting same thing, btw.

I have a feeling both the Angels brass and Beane saw this coming. Angels went out and signed Juan Rivera. Teixeira in a non-slegnA uniform helps level the playing field that is the AL West, which adds an inkling of backing to a Holliday trade. So, the A's chances at contending just went up, without the A's even making another move.

EDIT: Because so many rumors have been debunked this offseason, the LA Times got confirmation from Angels brass themselves. So we can call it official.

Tim Mead, the Angels' vice president of communications, confirmed a foxsports.com report that the team has withdrawn its offer to Mark Teixeira and is no longer pursuing the free-agent first baseman.

So, the 2009 FA signing period has officially started. Teams will now bid on various entities in the FA market, such as Mark Teixeira, CC Sabathia, Derek Lowe, Manny Ramirez, and various other delectabilities of various types.

You are an MLB GM. You've taken care of all the lefty-killing aspects of your bullpen. So, what if you need to get a right handed batter out? You don't want to give up the prospects needed to pry that lean, mean, righty-mashing machine away from his current team. However, you do not want to throw all that money at one of those fancy "closers" on the free agent market, let alone that coveted draft pick. 

And thus, you turn to F.A.T. Presenting... a sampling of your 2009 F.A.T. right handed reliever/ROOGY class.

Brian Lawrence via sowerbybridgecc.intheteam.com

Brian Lawrence- He was a starter from 2003-2005 with the San Diego Padres, and put up rather unimpressive stats (average tRA of around 5, although that ERA did look pretty thanks to Petco). He was (traded?) to the Mets, which was a stint cut short by a rotator cuff injury. Picked up off waivers by the Braves, he quietly put up some solid numbers. He doesn't strike out a lot of batters, but his walk rates are solid. Take into account that the majority of his professional experience has been as a starter.

2008 stats (AAA Richmond, as a starter): 81.7 IP, 3.88 tRA, 2.84 K/BB, 3.39 FIP, .318 BAA, .366 BABIP

Career MLB/MiLB Stats: 5.58 K/9, 2.50 BB/9, 2.23 K/BB, 0.94 HR/9, 4.13 FIP.

Career MLB splits v. RHB: .247/.296/.669

Derrick Turnbow- Came up with the Angels organization, traded to Milwaukee. He's a former All-Star (like that means anything, but still). Had several solid years with the Brewers organization, before completely imploding in 2008 to the point of getting the DFA-hammer in May. However, as it has been stated before, writing off a player's decent seasons because of an absolute disaster of a season isn't always the best idea. And, his BABIP was over .400 in his 2008 debacle. If he's coming on a minor league deal for the minimum, he should turn some heads, especially since he appears capable to be effective against bats of both orientations.

Career MLB stats: 9.26 K/9, 1.58 K/BB, 0.87 HR/9, 4.40 FIP

Career MLB splits v. RHB: .207/.341/ .687

Because his career lefty splits are worth mentioning: .230/.339/.690

Kiko Calero- He was the throw-in piece of the deal that brought Dan Haren to Oakland, and sent Mark Mulder to St. Louis for what would be the beginning of the end of his career. His full name is also Enrique Nomar Calero, which is just cool. He gets bonus points for that. He did struggle in 2007 though before getting released in 2008.

2008 (AAA Oklahoma) : 8.86 K/9, 1.75 K/BB, 5.36 FIP, .338 BABIP, 6.58 tRA. (Yes, he imploded a bit. Still, on a league minimum deal, throw him against the proverbial wall and see if he sticks)

Career MLB Splits v. RHB: .208/.272/.601  

Career Stats: 3.48 FIP, 9.46 K/9, 2.66 K/BB, .226 BAA, 1.22 WHIP

Elmer Dessens-He's a F.A.T. version of Troy Percival (well, minus the being -14 runs above replacement part). All the way down to the body type. He should probably retire.  But, I'm betting that if Percival were avaiable for league minimum, someone would be picking him up.

Career MLB Splits v. RHB: .267/.316/.726  (Not as impressive as the other guys, but still worth noting)

Career (MLB) Stats: 5.45 K/9, 2.06 K/BB, .286 BAA, 4.40 FIP

2008: Too small a sample size. I could only find 4 IP for 2008.

Vinnie Chulk-He blossomed in Toronto's bullpen, before being passed over to the Giants. He did indeed implode in 2008 and, like Turnbow, was released mid-season. Although, I would think that to Giants fans, he would be one of the less painful pitchers to watch implode.

2008 stats (Giants):4.55 K/9, 2.00 K/BB, 1.71 HR/9, 5.53 FIP, 5.63 tRA

Career MLB Stats: 6.30 K/9, 1.89 K/BB, 1.02 HR/9, .262 BAA, 4.40 FIP

Career MLB splits v. RHB: .253/.314/.698

Vinnie Chulk via farm2.static.flickr.com

If this is blatantly and miserably screwed up, feel free to lambast me.

 Cristian Guzman. He made the All Star Team. He's not highly acclaimed because he plays for the LOLNats, who are also in the NL East, where most of the elite shortstops reside (Rollins, Reyes, Escobar, Hanley). The Nats need well...everything except 3B. A good farm system is a start.

Pros: Because I like lists.

• He put up a .316/.345/.785 line in what is a bigger offensive cesspool than the A's lineup. 
• WOBA* of .359
• Apparantly, Furcal is seeking a 4 year deal, something the A's should NOT give out to an injury prone player. Guzman also is much cheaper than Furcal, at 8MM.
  
• He'd be gone after the 2010 season, so he won't be blocking top prospects post-2010.
• He's worth 8.8 runs over replacement at SS, so he's not a crappy defender.
  
• Crosby's GONE!!!!!!!
  
• A good GM would assess the situation and trade Guzman for prospects, so it makes sense for the Nats to trade him. 
• 8MM is probably around what Stephen Strasburg will get as a signing bonus. So, the Nats get prospects AND the freed money to pay that signing bonus (which they should pay anyway, but Bowden isn't intelligent). The Nats signing Strasburg keeps him out of the hands of our division rival up in Seattle. And cheap high upside players should be kept out of the AL West, unless they're going to the A's.

Cons:

• Not a HR/big power threat. More of a singles hitter, but remember, small ball gets runs too. 
• Not a stolen base threat. I like my bags swiped.
• Doesn't walk much, although decent OBP.
  
• Has had problems in the AL before. He was horrible with the Twins, before signing with the Nats, missing all of 2006 due to injury, then coming back with great numbers in 2007-2008. The A's could end up with an Edgar Renteria type situation, which I HOPE does not happen. But then, the A's wouldn't be giving up anything even close in value to Jair Jurrjens and Gorkys Hernandez.
  
• Jim Bowden is not an intelligent GM. He might not trade Guzman, or ask for the moon for him. But then, that works on the flipside that the A's might be able to fleece him big time.

It's almost 1AM here.  I'm probably missing something.

Hi guys.

MMunoz23 said I should do a post on why the A's shouldn't trade for Holliday here. I thought it was a good idea. So here it is.I'm a twisted person. I don't want to see Holliday added, although it bolsters the offensive offense of the A's. I will keep it light on the stats. First fanpost, so if I'm doing it wrong, tell me.

1. The years. Holliday is a one year rental. I'm not saying the A's CAN'T compete in 2009, I'm just saying that upper level prospects are more likely to break into the bigs than the two guys we draft with our shiny draft picks we get when Holliday walks because they've found success at a level of professional ball, which most draft picks haven't. I would be for it ONLY if there were a guaranteed extension. But, Holliday isn't waiving any sort of NTC to be traded, and there is no way to guarantee an extension. Even if there were an extension, it would be in the 6/100 range, and I don't know if Holliday will be worth that.

And, the "butts in seats" argument. Yeah, its another player who's here for a short tenure and then is gone. If anything, it will alienate people further when the A's don't extend him.

And for those of you saying "trade Cust", please look at some stats. If you have an absolute bargain who produces well, you don't move him.

2. The pitching. First of all, the majority of the A's future rotation is still very young and in prospect stages. I will be willing to bank on at least one of the arms not panning out, as sad as it may sound. It is also outlandish to expect the pitching to be playoff caliber in 2009. Guys like Cahill and Anderson probably will need time in AAA before being ready to contribute. There is no way the A's will muster enough offense up this offseason to offset a bleh pitching staff. The staff HAS to be on par, and that may not be the case in 2009.

3. The infield. Face it. The A's could easily be going into next season with a sub-.700 OPS player at 3/4 infield positions. Having two big boppers in Holliday and Cust, and a potential big bopper in Chavez (although only marginally a "big bopper") won't be enough. You can't have a station to station offense, it gets shut down. Cust, Holliday, Suzuki, and whichever other two outfielders start next year can't carry an offense. Look at the teams that made the playoffs. They had at least decent (offensive) production from six positions, if not more. The A's might have four next year.

4. Displacement of one of the A's outfielders. Next year, you will see competition between Sweeney, Cunningham, Buck, and CarGon for three spots. Right now, the bulk of our offensive production is coming from the outfield and DH. Getting adequate offensive production from multiple spots can be more beneficial than just getting it from 1-2. Trading for Holliday and putting him at LF does nothing towards bolstering the infield. If the team is truly rebuilding, you play the outfielders and figure out who sticks, and who doesn't.

5. The prospects. Just because you have a deep farm system, doesn't mean that you trade it unless the trade is absolutely necessary. Two of Anderson, Cahill, Simmons, Mazarro, Carter, or Doolittle would have to be traded. On a team like the A's, it is HUGE to get adequate contributions from members of the farm system. More important situations will pop up, and the A's will have to dip into that reservoir known as the farm system to pull up members. Filling holes internally allows the A's to spend on that superstar.