SB Nation User Blog: Blicks

Analyzing Halladay/Lee Insanity with Trade Value Calculator

Blicks — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 12:04:40 -0000

Roy Halladay is very good. Cliff Lee is very good.

This trade is insanely, insanely mind-boggling, and thus I had to bust out the numbers. This is a trade so epically confusing that I had to actually

So, I am going to use Sky's awesome,amazing, Trade Value Calculator, located here, to see how everything plays out. And provide some commentary, of course. Bah, I really should be sleeping right now.

Part One: The Aces:

First, the surplus value of Roy Halladay: (WAR values from Fangraphs)

Roy Halladay

Year	Sal (M)	WAR	Val (M)	Net (M)
2009
2010	$15.8	7.0	$31.9	$16.2
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
FA Picks			$5.0
Total	$15.8	7.0	$36.9	$21.2

He has about $21.2MM worth of surplus value, this including draft pick compensation.

Now, he is signing an awesome extension, supposedly worth 3/60. This is because Toronto provided Philly with an extension window, in which. The extension window does, indeed, have value. However, I do not know how to quantify, or remotely estimate, this value, which is one of the reasons I'm posting this thing. If his extension is 3/60, the Phillies would be paying an average of 20MM/yr for him. Which, although it is below his performance value, I can count the number of pitchers who have contracts with AAVs above 20MM on one hand.

Also, ANY player who is approaching free agency has an exclusive negotiating window with his team; it is the period before free agency officially begins.

Now, Lee.

	Cliff Lee

Year	Sal (M)	WAR	Val (M)	Net (M)
2009
2010	$9.0	6.0	$27.4	$18.4
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
FA Picks			$5.0
Total	$9.0	6.5	$34.7	$23.4

Lee's got a 23.4MM surplus value. The WAR projections for Lee and Doc were both equally conservative, especially considering league adjustments. You could add 0.5 WAR to Doc or Lee as you see fit.

The big shocker was that Lee, ultimately, has more surplus value than Doc. But, the difference between the salaries is greater than general win values, which is about 4- 4.5MM. [Salary data from Cot's, btw]

Generally speaking, Halladay represents a 1 WAR upgrade over Lee, maybe greater.

Part Two: The Prospects:

I'm going to value the prospects based on Victor Wang's research on prospect valuation, summarized here and here in the Roy Halladay context . I'm going to be very conservative with the prospect rankings, factoring in BA's mid-season top 25, John Sickels' preseason grades and mid-season reviews, and a little eyeballing of who's risen and fallen on these lists, along with where '09 draftees may rank on these lists (pretty much, if someone is on the fringe between two stratas of value, they get bumped down). Yeah, this is freaking rough. Here is what I'm gleaning.

Phillippe Aumont: [Top 76-100 pitcher]: $9.8MM

Juan Ramirez: [Grade B pitcher]: $7.3MM

Tyson Gillies: [Grade C hitter 22 or younger]: $0.7MM

Travis D'Arnaud: [Grade B hitter] : $5.5MM

Kyle Drabek: [Top 26-50 pitcher]: $15.9MM

Michael Taylor: [Top 26-50 hitter]: $23.4MM

I'm especially unsure on Aumont and Ramirez, especially since their pedestrian numbers came in an extreme hitters' park.

Sources:

BA Phillies 2010 Top 10 (they haven't released them for AL teams yet)

BA MIdseason Top 25 (Drabek = #24, Taylor = #23)

Sickels' Mariners '09 Prospects:

Part Three: The Results:

Now, the tables!

Philly:

Gives: 44.8MM surplus value (Drabek, Taylor, and D'Arnaud) + 23.4MM surplus value (Lee) = 68.2MM value

Gets: 39MM surplus value (Halladay, Aumont, Ramirez, Gillies) + 6MM salary relief = 45MM value

Net: 23.2MM deficit

Seattle:

Gives: 17.8MM surplus value (Aumont, Ramirez, and Gillies)

Gets: 23.4MM of surplus value (Lee)

Net: 5.6MM surplus

Toronto:

Gives: $21.2MM surplus value (Halladay) + 6MM salary relief = 27.2MM value

Gets: $44.8MM surplus value (Drabek, Taylor, and D'Arnaud)

Net: 17.6MM surplus

Of course, you can factor in increased playoff probability for Seattle and Philadelphia. Also, of course, the increased marginal value of a win, since each additional win is worth more for a contending team than a non (Dave Cameron explains it here).

Toronto and Seattle clearly came out on top, as Seattle gave up less long-term value than they received, which is very, very rare. Toronto received a massive, massive amount of surplus value and two players who should put them back on the map pretty soon.

Philly, on the other hand, paid dearly for a 1 WAR improvement. Despite the fact that they're a contending team and have the payroll resources to overpay for wins, this was a massive overpay. They paid about 23.2MM for an upgrade that will be about 1.5 WAR at best.

Of course, there is the quantifiable value of an extension window. Which is a question in and of itself. The obvious upgrade which the Phillies receive for 2011-2013, at a team friendly price, must be worth something, especially since the Phils negotiated the extension before the trade went through.

It is very possible that Halladay will produce 23.2MM of surplus value throughout the tenure of his extension. A very, very tall order considering his age, but very plausible.

This isn't "OMG FIRE AMARO" bad, but its questionable at best for Philly.

DISCLAIMER: Yes, I know the deal is still tentative. Hah.

Lackey -> Red Sox, Halladay -> Phillies, Lee -> M's

Blicks — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 21:07:10 -0000

I feel as if this is A's related, since it pertains to two of our division rivals significantly changing.

So, yeah, looks like the slegnA won't get their ace, as 3 (!!!) have just changed hands.

Top free agent pitcher John Lackey is said to be in agreement on a five-year, $85 million contract with the Boston Red Sox, sources say. Lackey has scheduled a physical with the team.

Lackey's deal with the Red Sox is similar to the $82.5 million, five-year contract A.J. Burnett got with the Yankees last offseason. "That's what they were looking for,'' an AL executive said.

Lackey has had a couple minor issues with his shoulder and back in recent seasons, so the Red Sox will want to check him out. But nothing serious is expected to be found.

Sports Illustrated - source

I see this as a massive overpay for the Red Sox, as Lackey's got shoulder issues. But then, this is the Red Sox, so "massive overpay" sounds about par, although Theo Epstein generally isn't the one to massively overpay for players (exception given to Dice-K).

And, yeah, a massive 3 teamer where Halladay is to the Phillies, Cliff Lee goes to the M's, and prospects (from both teams, most likely) go to the Jays, has been agreed on.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/12/roy-halladay-rumors-monday-1.html

Yes, I'm linking to MLBtr. I'll update once a non-twitter source posts.

And, the Mariners are looking like the favorites to win the division.

Although, I'm heavily skeptical of the 3 teamer, as it is absolutely ridiculous. What would the M's be giving the Jays? Ackley can't be traded as a PTBNL, nor can any '09 draftee yet. Phillippe Aumont?, Michael Pineda?, Michael Saunders? Carlos Triunfel? This will be interesting to see what the Jays get.

EDIT (5:12 PM PST): Well, now Drabek's involved, and Aumont might not be. And Happ may be involved, and Domonic Brown may be involved, and our own favorite Cupcakes Blanton may be involved. Who's involved? This is insane.

8/10/09 Minor Athletics

Blicks — Tue, 11 Aug 2009 05:15:46 -0000

Filling in here, minor league updates, here you go. First time doing this, so hope the formatting isn't too screwy

Oh, Chris Carter, Matt Spencer, and Travis Banwart swept the Texas League Player of the Week awards, again (Carter, Jason Fernandez, and Arnold Leon were the players last week).

Sacramento River Cats (AAA): 72-44 (.621), 1st place, +8.5 games, in PCL Pacific South

Final   1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9    R H E

New Orleans
2 0 4 1 0 1 1 0 0    9 13 1

Sacramento
0 3 1 5 0 0 1 0 X    10 16 0

CF- Eric Patterson: 3-4, HR, 4 RBI, R, BB (.331 AVG)

3B- Brett Wallace: 2-5, R (.286 AVG)

DH- Travis Buck: 0-5, 3 K (.280 AVG)

RF- Matt Carson: 2-4, HR, 2 RBI, R (.248 AVG)

C- Eric Munson: 2-5, HR, 2 RBI, R (.273 AVG)

SS- Gregorio Petit: 2-3, 2B, 2 R, BB (.242 AVG)

SP- Chad Reineke (ND, 5-4, 4.84 ERA): 2.0 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 1 K, 2 HR

RP- Mickey Storey (0-0, 0.00 ERA): 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

RP- Jerry Blevins (BS, W, 5-3, 3.81 ERA): 2.0 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 HR

RP- Sam Demel (S, 1-2, 3.98 ERA): 1.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

Midland Rockhounds (AA): 63-51 (.553), 1st place, +5.0 games in TEX South

Final   1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9    R H E

Midland
2 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0    4 9 1

Corpus Christi
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2    3 8
0

1B- Chris Carter: 2-4, HR, 3 RBI, R (.336 AVG)

LF- Matt Spencer: 2-4, 2B (.313 AVG)

C-Josh Donaldson: 0-4, K (.272 AVG)

2B- Jemile Weeks: 1-4, 2B (.286 AVG)

3B- Corey Wimberly: 1-3, SB, R (.299 AVG)

Stockton (A+) was off today, so we shall move on to Kane County

Kane County Cougars (A): 21-23 (.477), 4.5 GB in MID Western (.544 winning pct on season though)

Final   1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9    R H E

Clinton
0 0 0 1 1 0 0 2 0    4 12 5

Kane County
0 0 0 0 0 2 0 4 X    6 9 0

DH- Leonardo Gil: 2-4, 2R (.278 AVG)

2B- Nino Leyja: 1-3, BB, 2R (.232 AVG)

SS- Tyler Ladendorf: 1-3, RBI (.224 AVG)

RF- Jeremy Barfield: 2-4, 2 RBI (.275 AVG)

SP- Murphy Smith (ND, 0-1, 2.75 ERA): 6.0 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HR

Vancouver Canadians (A-): 24-26 (.480), 9.0 GB in NOR West

Final   1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9    R H E

Vancouver
0 0 3 0 1 0 2 0 0    6 14 3

Salem-Keizer
1 0 1 0 0 0 0 6 X    8 9 2

SS- Michael Gilmartin: 3-5, 2B, R (.268 AVG)

CF- Conner Crumbliss: 0-3, 2 BB (.323 AVG)

LF- Myrio Richard: 3-5, R (.300 AVG)

DH- Kent Walton: 2-5, RBI, R (.321 AVG)

SP- Jonathan Joseph (ND, 0-0, 3.54 ERA): 6.0 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 K

AZL Athletics (15-25) were off, and DSL Athletics (17-45) lost to the DSL Phillies 8-5

Gaudin to Yankees

Blicks — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 13:48:46 -0000

Gaudin to Yankees

For a PTBNL. Great pickup for the Yankees.

I liked Chad though. Well, at least its not the Red Sox.

Open Trade Deadline Thread

Blicks — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 12:49:46 -0000

EDIT: OCab is gone! The Twins have acquired OCab for SS prospect Tyler Ladenorf: LINK

Rated-R Superstar summed up the OCab-Twins talk here. Pretty much, the two sides are making progress and its somewhat likely OCab is a Twin. And Ron Gardenhire likes O-Cab. I just thought putting all the trade deadline stuff in one place, since today is one of the most important non-playoff days of the season (the draft days are the other). Post updates, etc, here. Packaging OCab with Springer to get more prospects from the Twins, since they do need bullpen help, might be wise.

Re: Springer/Cardinals: It's unlikely:

Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak downplayed the possibility of acquiring relief help before today's 3 p.m. waiver deadline.

The Cardinals remain interested in set-up relief help but may find a match after today.

"I don't see anything happening in the near term," Mozeliak said.

"There is a possibility something may come along after (today), but there is also a significant chance that nothing happens."

Other thoughts:

Getting the Twins to overpay for OCab would be nice and pleasant.
Springer and/or one of Wuertz/Ziegler might also be traded, as many others know. Obviously, Wuertz or Ziegler should only be moved if the price is right, and by no means should both be moved, but if someone offers a top 3B/SS prospect, do it. Springer is a solid reliever and an impending FA who's likely to accept arbitration if offered, so if the A's aren't planning on forking 3MM over for a middling reliever (which they shouldn't), trying to trade Springer would be smart. But then, he does have leadership qualities and I'd rather Geren NOT get any more excuses to blow out the arms of Bailey and Wuertz (if he stays). Having Springer to soak up innings with how young and Verducci-risky the rotation is.
Halladay hopefully is a Ranger. Now, before I get lambasted for wanting the Rangers to seriously upgrade their team and reel in arguably the best pitcher in baseball, I'm getting a kick out of the idea of breaking up the Rangers' big four and one, most likely two, of the Smoak/Perez/Feliz/Holland crew going to Toronto, namely Smoak (hell, Smoak + a bunch of Texas's non top 3 guys will be good). The Rangers probably won't extend him, as Doc has expressed desire to try the FA market and the Yanks/Red Sux/Mets/Dodgers are lurking there to pry the Doc away or at least jack up his price. I know he's a prospect and could very easily be a bust, but not having to deal with (a really cheap) Smoak in 2011 if he hits his ceiling and 5 other years will make it easier for the A's to win a few division titles in those years. Oh, and maybe some payroll issues that might lead to the Rangers not signing Purke/Scheppers, who are massively overslot draft picks. I don't dislike the Rangers and really really want them to win the West or at least take the WC away from the Yanks/Red Sox. But Smoak out of the AL West is a good thing as far as prospects go.Deal with Doc in 2010, since 2009 is kinda done in terms of playoffs for the GNG. Oh, and I'd infinitely more like the Rangers to win the West this year than those pesky slegnA and their stupid rally monkeys.
Oh. There's also talk about Victor Martinez, Adrian Gonzalez, and a bunch of other guys. Maybe one of those two going to Boston, since Papi's showing off that he's done.
Anything else? Trade predictions? Post away!

Poll

What do you think the A's do before the deadline today?

Nobody is traded.

10 votes

OCab traded, everyone else stays

60 votes

OCab and someone else (Wuertz/Springer/Ziegler/Kennedy) is traded

59 votes

A non-OCab player is traded

2 votes

There's some wild 3 way deal and the A's get in on it.

14 votes

145 votes | Poll has closed

No. 3 ADRIAN CARDENAS, 2B ATHLETICS Team: Double-A Midland (Texas) Age: 21 Why He's Here:...

Blicks — Sun, 19 Jul 2009 20:40:02 -0000

No. 3 ADRIAN CARDENAS, 2B ATHLETICS
Team: Double-A Midland (Texas)
Age: 21
Why He's Here: .423/.444/.731 (11-for-26), 5 2B, 1 HR, 5 RBIs, 5 R, 1 BB, 1 SO

With an easy, compact swing, Cardenas is the type of player who could sleepwalk his way to a .300 average. His pure hit tool ranks among the best in the organization, and he has the strike-zone judgment (shown in part by his 37 walks and 35 strikeouts in Double-A) to make it all come together for him at the plate. A brief trial in Triple-A didn't work out, but the lefty-swinging Cardenas is still one of the youngest players in the Texas League, where he's hitting .358/.429/.489, ranking second in the league in average and on-base and third in OPS.

No. 8 GRANT DESME, OF ATHLETICS
Team: high Class A Stockton (California)
Age: 23
Why He's Here: .368/.500/.947 (7-for-19), 3 HR, 1 3B, 4 RBIs, 6 R, 5 BB, 6 SO, 3-for-4 SB

The Scoop: Desme is having a solid season, especially considering that injuries had limited him to just 49 at-bats during his first two pro seasons. A second-round pick out of Cal Poly in 2007, he started the season with low Class A Kane County, where he batted .274/.334/.490 with 19 doubles, 11 homers and 24 stolen bases in as many attempts. Desme got a power boost after being promoted to the Cal League, of course, and over his first 21 games with the Ports, he has hit .260/.360/.649 with eight home runs. The power doesn't come without its downfalls, though. Between the two levels, Desme has struck out 113 times in 336 at-bats.

July 17 BA Prospect Hot Sheet

DL: Are defensive metrics an important part of your evaluation process or do you rely primarily on...

Blicks — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 19:22:14 -0000

DL: Are defensive metrics an important part of your evaluation process or do you rely primarily on scouting?

JH: It's scouting for me. People scout players and they rate their defense, and that's what I go by -- and the personnel that we have in our own dugout.

Rob Neyer, from a David Laurila interview with Cubs GM Jim Hendry.

Selig taking stupid to new heights

Blicks — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 13:58:02 -0000

Selig taking stupid to new heights

"One small-market Central Division team that hasn't done very well for years has essentially completed a deal with its fourth-round pick, who isn't a college junior and thus has bargaining leverage. But the commissioner's office doesn't like that the agreed-upon number is above slot and has refused to sign off, so the player hasn't gotten out there and is being kept from what the team decided is his market value." - from linked Gammons article

The name I'm hearing, and would be my educated guess is Chris Dwyer, the Royals' 4th round pick. Dwyer recently agreed to sign for a way overslot bonus probably around the 1MM range.

The A's took Max Stassi with the next pick in the draft.

Arguellez, Iglesias Sweepstakes Begins

Blicks — Sun, 14 Jun 2009 14:46:41 -0000

Arguellez, Iglesias Sweepstakes Begins

19 year old Cuban defectors Noel Arguelles and Jose Iglesias are officially MLB free agents. LHP Arguelles drew comparisons from scouts to Francisco Liriano and SS Iglesias drew comparisons to Orlando Cabrera (I assume we're talking the pre-2009 OCab here).

Why the A's should sign Ben Sheets

Blicks — Mon, 22 Dec 2008 18:37:34 -0000

So, an interesting name has been getting thrown around AN...this guy by the name of Ben Sheets. I think the absolute highest he gets in this market is 2/30, and I could see him getting 2/20 or a 1/15 type deal (which is why he should have accepted arbitration). For the sake of proving points, I'll stick to the high estimate and say 2/30. Now that the retirement home across the Bay has signed Randy Johnson, who would've been my number 1 FA starter choice, let's go to Sheets, shall we?

1. Interest in the pitcher has been tepid, at best. Which means, he is likely to come at a major bargain price.

When interest is tepid, we all know what happens. Kyle Lohse 2008 happens (even though Sheets is eons of a better pitcher than Lohse). Demands come down. Players become bargains. Two teams have stuck out as potential contenders for Sheets: the Rangers and the Braves. One could also see the Brewers resigning Sheets, but

However, I could see the Rangers also waiting until they have the albatrosses known as Vicente Padilla and Kevin Millwood off the books in 2010 to pursue a free agent starter. And, if I've heard correctly, the Rangers are not raising payroll, which would bar a major FA signing like Sheets. They also do not have an offer out to Sheets yet, although they are rumored to be the frontrunners for the pitcher.

And then, there are the Braves. First of all, why haven't we heard more about the Braves' interest in Sheets. If the injury risk truly is scaring them away, then why were they making offers to another injury prone player, who I will not name in this post. I'm confused myself as to why they're not in on Sheets. Has Mike Hampton really scared them off that much?

2. He doesn't have to be healthy for the entire duration of his contract to be worth the bucks.

He is a 4.5-5 win player per season if he pitches 200 innings. Here's a chart. We're going to use the very generous contract estimation of 2/30, when, if the market for Sheets is really as dry as it looks, he'll probably be landable on less.

Now, pretend his contract is for 2/30, which is a high estimate looking at the market. There might be an option involved, but that will be contingent on performance. Let's say that the market rate for one WAR is about 5MM (it was 4.5MM in '08, and is probably bound to increase. If it does not increase as much, then the value goes down, but the contract will still benefit the A's.). That means, that at 5MM/win, he would have to accumulate 6 WAR to be worth the money. And that, my friends, is pretty damn likely.

Assuming he maintains his 2008 FIP of 3.34 (tRA = 3.45), that is. At that level, he would have to pitch about 267 innings total (133.5 IP per season average) assuming 4.5 WAR per season. At 4 WAR, he'd have to pitch 300 innings over the duration of his contract (150 IP/season) to accumulate the 6 WAR paid for.

And, he's a safe bet to hit 140-150 IP per season, as he has hit 150 in all but 2 years of his career (and just barely missed in one year, throwing 141.1 IP). Chart!

year	IP
2001	151.1
2002	216.2
2003	220.2
2004	237
2005	156.2
2006	106
2007	141.1
2008	198.1

I love draft picks like none other, but if a player has the upside of representing a 3-4 win upgrade for your team (and is likely to reach that upside). And, the A's keep their first rounder, and have the potential to gain two first rounders (Holliday + Sheets) and two supplemental picks from them leaving in the next two years. Although that is an ideal situation, as what happened with CC/Burnett could happen or a crappy team signs one of the two, etc. Although if Sheets keeps up his innings totals, he'll be a near lock for Type A. One can assume fairly around replacement level production from the 5th starter spot (I don't think Gio is ready for MLB yet, which means rotation as of now is Duke-Gallagher-Eveland-Braden-Outman. Unless you see massive breakouts from Outman, Braden, and Eveland, one will probably be worth one win or less, or two wins at the most). He'd be a bigger upgrade than putting an all-bat, no glove guy at 1B, etc IMO.

Final	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Midland	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	4	9	1
Corpus Christi	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	8	0