SB Nation User Blog: Blitzburgh

Calling All Potential Moderators

Blitzburgh — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 10:05:26 -0000

Calling All Potential Moderators

I haven't had time to write much of substance about how frustrating it's been watching Steeler Nation be torn apart as we collectively experience the disappointment of the 2009 season. But I have noticed a bunch of thoughts from you guys about the community's interaction as of late. I appreciate that. A lot. And a first step I'd like to take is to ask if there's anybody out there who has read BTSC for awhile that would like to help me with the moderating of the site as it continues to grow larger and more active by the day. It's simply too much for me while focusing on trying to write and keep up with the other 'chores' of this labor of love.

Anyway, if you are, I can't promise much in return, but I'll certainly do my best to throw you whatever kind of proverbial 'bone' I can from time to time, as well as express my extreme gratitude for the help. If you are already reading the fanposts and comments fairly religiously and comprehensively, I can't imagine it would really take much extra time on your part to help in this regard.

Feel free to just email me off site, but if you feel the need, ask any questions you may have here.

behindthesteelcurtain@gmail.com

michaelbean06@gmail.com

Steelers Playing For Pride For The First Time In The Mike Tomlin Era

Blitzburgh — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 01:43:16 -0000

It was a dark day in Steeler Nation on Friday. The beloved Steelers had lost the previous night to the win deprived Cleveland Browns. For as bad as the Steelers had been during their four game losing streak prior to Thursday's game, there was at least a small glimmer of hope that they could get back on track with a win against Cleveland. That's what happens when Pittsburgh and Cleveland meet up recently. The Steelers had won the previous 12 games against their longtime divisional rivals. The streak was snapped with the loss, and with it, Pittsburgh's 2009 playoff chances most likely.

"There's nothing fun about losing games, especially five in a row. We're better than that. We should play better than that. With three games left, you're going to see who really wants to go out here and play for the pride of this organization and this city and who doesn't want to be around here."

-- Hines Ward

That's right. These last three games are all about pride for the 2009 Pittsburgh Steelers. In 2007 and 2008, the Steelers had everything to play for leading up to their final game of the season. In '07 that was the playoff loss to Jacksonville in the Wild Card round. In '08, the season ended in Phoenix at the Super Bowl. In '09, the season essentially ended last Thursday night when they fell to 6-7. Of course, there is still a number of scenarios in which they could still very much make the playoffs, but at this point, it's becoming as unlikely that they'd get all the scoreboard help they'd need as it is that they'll win their final three games.

What will we see from the team in those three games? Will they be feeling too sorry for themselves to compete for a full 60 minutes. They better be for their own safety, because the Packers, Ravens and Dolphins are all still alive and kicking for a coveted playoff berth.

Regardless of how this final three weeks plays out, we'll learn something about this collection of players and coaches. Hopefully it's for the better, and we're celebrating their resolve and looking forward to seeing what the 6 time champs have in store for 2010. If not and we see a team not live up to what the organization - the ownership, fans, and winning tradition - stands for, then it will be equally interesting to see what changes might be in store this coming spring and summer.

I'm off the road now and will be back writing regularly tonight and throughout the week.

BTSC Week 14 NFL Picks

Blitzburgh — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 13:43:54 -0000

I'm heading out of town later this afternoon to spend a few weeks in California, so all I have time for is a quick 'picks column'. I'll check in from a bar or hotel during the game. The Steelers better win tonight. I'll just leave it at that. Join me and other fans during the game for what we hope will be the week that snaps the four game losing streak by Pittsburgh. If so, they'll then have 10 days to rest up before hosting the Packers in Week 15 in what very well may be a 'must-win' game for both teams. I say that assuming Pittsburgh wins, and as you'll read below, that Green Bay loses at Chicago.

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6) @ Cleveland Browns (1-11)

My oh my. If the Steelers were to drop their fifth straight to the one-win Cleveland Browns, I'm not sure what I or the rest of Steeler Nation would do. It could happen. It's a rivalry game on the road. I don't think it will though. Pittsburgh keeps their playoff chances alive and heads in to a mini BYE week before hosting Green Bay 10 days from now.

New York Jets (6-6) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-11)

Tampa Bay accomplished somoething truly remarkable last Sunday - 8 trips inside the Carolina red zone. How many points? Just 14? 13? 10? Nope. 6 points on 8 trips inside the 20. Oh my. I am hoping Buccaneers look more like the team that was challenging solid opponents earlier in the middle of the year than the team that has played very poorly lately. We'll see. Kellon Clemens gets the start in the place of the injured Mark Sanchez. Frankly though, I'm not quite sure if that's a good thing or bad thing for Jets fans. In an interview on ESPN Radio in New York earlier in the week, Ryan basically said that he didn't think the Jets could make the playoffs without Sanchez, so I guess I'll take his word for it. I'll take Tampa Bay in a semi-stunner.

Carolina Panthers (5-7) @ New England Patriots (7-5)

If this were in Carolina rather than at Foxboro, I'd be very inclined to take the Panthers. In fact, New England's road woes this year make me non-believers in their chances to make it out of the AFC playoffs and earn a trip to the Super Bowl. Back to Carolina and this game...The Panthers are just 2-4 on the road and will probably get lit up by the Patriots. The Panthers defense is incredibly banged up for starters. And this isn't New England's first rodeo either. They need to win this weekend. I think the Patriots will do just that.

Cincinnati Bengals (9-3) @ Minnesota Vikings (10-2)

The game Cincinnati truly makes believers out of the football loving public. I like the Bengals definitely to cover the +7, but I also like their chances to win outright and retain their grasp on the #2 seed in the AFC. As I mentioned earlier in the week, I'd like to spend a bit more time elaborating on why I like Cincinnati's chances to really make some noise in the playoffs. If they win this weekend, I'm 100% convinced they're a legit threat to win it all. We'll see. Part of the reason I like them here though is I think we'll see Minnesota slide a bit back further towards the pack this next month. They're a very good team. Just not great if you ask me.

Buffalo Bills (4-8) @ Kansas City Chiefs (3-9)

Uhhh. Who knows? Who cares? I guess I want Buffalo to win if only because I'd prefer to see their interim coach get a chance at retaining his job rather than being booted for some mediocre retread. I think I like Kansas City here though, if only because they were so bad last weekend that their fiery coach, Todd Haley, was probably on their asses all week reminding them of how much of a joke they are when not playing at maximum intensity and focus. Matt Cassel's also flirting with losing his job for the rest of the season, so I'd expect him to be better as well. I'll take Kansas City.

Miami Dolphins (6-6) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (7-5)

Classic matchup of strength vs. strength. All Miami does is run the ball. All Jacksonville does (rather, the only thing they do very well) is stop the run. This game screams 'stay away from me' in terms of betting, but we're just doing this for kicks, so no turning and running for me. I like Miami to really convolute things in the AFC Wild Card picture with a hard fought win over the Jaguars. I do think though that if Jacksonville can get through this game that they may just be able to nab a critical road win against either NE or IND to complete their improbable run to the playoffs. Their fans have to be excited about this one.

Denver Broncos (8-4) @ Indianapolis Colts (12-0)

I tip my cap to Denver for getting things back on track this past two games. The Broncos were in danger of totally imploding following four straight losses. But to their credit, they rebounded with a huge win over the Giants on Thanksgiving, then dusted the Chiefs at Arrowhead last week to improve to 8-4 and remain just one back of San Diego in the AFC West. Am I convinced they're much better than the team I lambasted on multipe occasions in the middle of the year? No, no I'm not. I do think they're good enough to handle the Raiders and Chiefs at home to get to 10 wins, but I don't think they have the firepower to beat Indianapolis this weekend, or to win at Philadelphia two weeks from now. Will 10 wins get them in? Probably, but perhaps not if the Steelers get their act together. Anyway, the Colts will be shutting it down soon as they do each time they've clinched everything they can with a few weeks to go in the regular season. It's a week too early to begin coasting though, so I look for the Colts to play as well as they have all year on Sunday.

Seattle Seahawks (5-7) @ Houston Texans (5-7)

If the Texans hadn't blown so many games recently and still had legitimate playoff aspirations, I'd take them here in a heartbeat. However, I wonder if they feel sorry for themselves and allow their slide to continue against a Seahawks team that has been atrocious away from home in recent years. Hmm. Gary Kubiak's job is squarely on the line. He may very well be safe if he can get the Texans to 8 or 9 wins. But a home loss to a lowly Seattle team probably ends his tenure there. Hmmmm. I'll take Houston to do what they do - win just enough unimportant games each year to keep their record at or near .500. For what it's worth though, I would never touch this game unless I was including Seattle on the money line in some sort of longshot parlay.

Green Bay Packers (8-4) @ Chicago Bears (5-7)

Here's my second stunner of the week. I like Chicago to win this one at home over the surging Packers. Tricky spot for the Packers as they get ready for their rivals on a short week following their important win on Monday Night over the visiting Ravens. If I'm correct, that may not be such a good thing for us Steelers fans, as they'd then need to rebound with a big game the following week at Heinz Field.

Detroit Lions (2-10) @ Baltimore Ravens (6-6)

Just what the doctor ordered for the Ravens coming off their potentially (and frankly, most likely) crippling loss on Monday to the Packers - the Lions are coming to town. I'll tell you what though, Baltimore better have a nice week of preparation this week and not just assume they've got an off week coming up. I think viewers should be able to determine in the first quarter what's going to transpire - if the Ravens come out angry, it could get ugly. But if they look complacent and disinterested to start the game, they may just find themselves in a dogfight against a team with not an iota of pressure on them. I suppose for now I must take Baltimore to win but if I were a betting man, I'd probably feel better about a position on the Lions covering 13-14 points than I would on Baltimore, a team that hasn't scored more than 20 points since Week 8!

New Orleans Saints (12-0) @ Atlanta Falcons (5-7)

The Falcons can't win this one with Chris Redman, nor can they win this one with Matt Ryan playing on turf toe. New Orleans remains vulnerable against the run, but no Michael Turner on Sunday means they keep the streak alive and march on towards a perfect 16-0 regular season.

Washington Redskins (3-9) @ Oakland Raiders (4-8)

I think the Redskins rally around their fallen workhorse Clinton Portis, who was placed on IR earlier this week, and finally close out a game after weeks of hanging tough and not having much to show for it. Are the Raiders able to handle any sort of prosperity and stay grounded from one week to the next? Hmm. I don't think so. I like Washington to bring Oakland back down to reality.

St. Louis Rams (1-11) @ Tennessee Titans (5-7)

Test #1 of the new Vince Young era in Nashville. Do he and the rest of the Titans continue to compete with the same swagger and carefree but competitive demeanor that they did during their 5 game winning streak? Or does Young feel he's not accomplished what he and the rest of the Titans set out to do when they were 0-6 - that being winning out and sneaking in to the playoffs. There's less to play for now. How will they respond? I'll take Tennessee to avoid the emotional letdown.

San Diego Chargers (9-3) @ Dallas Cowboys (8-4)

Running short on time here, but I'll say this - we'll learn something about both these teams on Sunday. Are the Cowboys any different than they've been in recent years? San Diego has won 7 in a row, but they've been sloppy at times during the winning streak. Not sure how I feel about this one just yet, but I think I actually like Dallas to win just because San Diego remains a bit vulnerable against the run, and Dallas certainly has the horses to wear on a rush defense if Jason Garret's calling an intelligent game plan. Disclaimer though - I'd never bet on Dallas here for a multitude of reasons. We very well could see the Cowboys unravel in this next four weeks. After hosting SD, they play @ NO, @ WAS, then vs. Philadelphia. This home tilt against San Diego could be one of their one or two final wins of the 2009 regular season.

Philadelphia Eagles (8-4) @ New York Giants (7-5)

Is it just me, or is NFC East football just not that intriguing? I know it's a competitive division, but I just don't much care for the actual product those four teams put out on the field each week. Anyway, I like New York to win and totally logjam the division heading in to the final three weeks of the season.

Arizona Cardinals (8-4) @ San Francisco 49ers (5-7)

Cardinals, for sure. Lookout for the Red Birds come January. Like Cincinnati, I really like how they're flying under the radar and going about their business. The NFL and whichever network is airing the Super Bowl would hate it, but I wouldn't at all be surprised if there's an Arizona vs. Cincinnati SB matchup in early February. By no means am I 'predicting' that just yet, but I feel quite strongly about both teams and their ability to beat anybody come January.

A Closer Look At The Steelers Salary Cap Situation To Better Understand The Team's Struggles In 2009

Blitzburgh — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 07:55:16 -0000

Just a conversation starter here that I'm eager to get your take on. The subject - how the Steelers have been forced to balance out the spending they did re-signing key veterans by keeping an unusually high number of rookies and other inexperienced, low paid players on the roster.

Let's take a look at just how much of the team's allotted salary cap has gone to paying the team's better players. The chart below shows how much more the Steelers are shelling out this year to pay their top players than they did even just a year ago. There are a myriad different variables as to why this is - and we'll get in to some of them in this post as well as in follow-up posts - but for now, let me just say that the preliminary point of this exercise is to show how the Rooneys were forced to counterbalance this reality by keeping an unusually high volume of young players (rookies in particular) on this year's roster in order to keep the balance sheets in check. This will also be the case in 2010. The hope though is that the experience gained this year by the raw young talent will pay dividends in 2010 and 2011 when the core group of key players the team's invested heavily in will still be around and capable of playing at a high enough level to lead the team towards more Super Bowl glory.

For any of you all out there who own your own business or are involved in accounting, finance, economics, or even just payroll or something else Human Resources related, you know how operations almost exclusively are run off an Excel spreadsheet. In business, you increase a profit margin a smidge here and a smidge there with calculated and clearly defined decision. In the NFL, your actions are shaped primarily by the looming annual salary cap figure - a hard cap that all teams must abide by unlike in Major League Baseball or the National Basketball Association.

That's not to say I understand the ins and outs of how the Steelers front office is running this team based on salary figures alone. But I do feel confident saying that what we're seeing this year - that is an abundance of young pups being asked to make major contributions for a defending champion team - is a product of the pressures the organization is feeling this year and next to keep their books balanced.

Let's take a closer look.

2008 NFL Salary Cap: ~$116.7 million

2009 NFL Salary Cap: ~$127 million


Name	2008 Cap Hit	2009 Cap Hit	+/- Delta
Ryan Clark	$ 2.2	$2.4	+ $.2
James Farrior	$ 4.05	$3.98	- $.7
Casey Hampton	$ 5.4	$6.6	+ $1.2
James Harrison	$1.55	$ 5.75	+ $4.2
Justin Hartwig	$ 1.49	$ 2.23	+ $.74
Chris Hoke	$ 1.48	$ 1.67	+ $.19
Santonio Holmes	$ 1.74	$ 1.6	- $.14
Brett Keisel	$ 3.15	$ 5.0	+ $1.85
Rashard Mendenhall	$ 1.19	$ 1.48	+ $.29
Heath Miller	$ 1.7	$ 4.67	+ $2.97
Mewelde Moore	$ 1.1	$ 1.92	+ $.81
Willie Parker	$ 4.09	$ 4.53	+ $.44
Troy Polamalu	$ 6.82	$ 6.49	- $.33
Jeff Reed	$ 1.96	$ 1.96	$0
Ben Roethlisberger	$ 7.97	$ 13.2	+ $5.23
Aaron Smith	$ 4.75	$ 3.95	- $.8
Ike Taylor	$ 3.74	$ 5.67	+ $1.93
Lawrence Timmons	$ 1.75	$ 2.1	+ $.35
Deshea Townsend	$ 1.97	$ 2.37	+ $.4
Hines Ward	$ 6.7	$ 5.6	- $1.1
Max Starks	$ 6.89	$ 5.5	- $1.39
Chris Kemoeatu	$ 1.42	$ 2.8	+ $1.38
Willie Colon	$ .54	$ 2.2	+ $1.66
-------	-------	-------	-------
	$73.65	$93.67	+ $20.02

Initial Conclusion(s):

We'll try to go a bit deeper, but simply put, the Steelers paid a bigger slice of their yearly pie to their top players in 2009 than they did in 2008. The Salary Cap jumped about $10 million dollars from '08 to '09, yet the Steelers salary cap allotment to their 'upper crust' players jumped more than $20 million bucks.

What does that mean? Well, lots of things I suppose, including that the front office really believes in investing in a certain core group of players.

More importantly though, it means that there were tough decisions and risks to be taken in order to fill out a complete roster that fell under the salary cap. What's the easiest way to achieve that end? By keeping a bunch of rookies and other young players in their rookie contracts.

When you have an army of scouts as talented and ubiquitous as the Steelers organization, you can live with calculated risks like replacing a Bryant McFadden with William Gay; or hoping your young DBs fill the void left by cutting veteran special teams stalwarts like Anthony Madison. Then there's the occasional gaffe made by even the most competent front offices - like say the Kendall Simmons extension that is still costing the Steelers in 2009, more than a year after Simmons last took a snap in the Black 'N Gold. Basically, for every reaction, there's an equal and opposite reaction. In the salary-cap era of the NFL that means for every extra dollar you pay Player X, you have to find a way to pay Player Y less, or you must replace Player Y with a less expensive option, Player Z. You just have to roll the dice at times that the young Player Z is ready to perform on the big stage sooner rather than later.

Some other thoughts about these figures. As always, please jump in and share your insights on what you see and what you think it all means in the bigger picture.

*This is why we weren't able to retain Bryant McFadden, even for the paltry sum that the Cardinals ultimately paid him. You have to make up for the dramatic increase in salary expenditures somewhere.

*Same for Larry Foote. Did we release him because he was 'washed up'? No, no we did not. We did so because he was making too much money compared to what Lawrence Timmons and Keyaron Fox were making. Had there been some more money to work with, I guarantee you Foote gets re-signed. Perhaps some egos get damaged a bit as Dick LeBeau shuffles the talented quartet of Farrior, Timmons, Foote and Fox. But that extra experienced body would have come in handy looking back at things, no?

*By the way, this is also why Anthony Madison was originally let go. Madison, the team's top special teams ace in 2008, was released for salary cap purposes alone. The reality of it is that he was set to make close somewhere between 300-400k more than rookies like Joe Burnett, Keenan Lewis, or even 3rd year man William Gay. That's a risk the front office has to take. Said differently, you free up that extra bit of cap space to pay premium players and just hope that the youngsters come close to filling the production void left by a guy like Madison's departure. It hasn't quite worked out that way. And it certainly hasn't worked out that way (at least if you ask me) in terms of replacing McFadden with Gay for salary purposes.

*Perhaps the biggest waste of money this year - at least on a guy who's actually suiting up each week and not 'dead money' - is veteran DB Deshea Townsend. The 11 year vet has a cap value of $2.3 million this year. For what? I respect and appreciate loyalty to veterans, but in hindsight, the Steelers should have released him this summer.

*Another guy who I absolutely love but am beginning to question whether he's worth the price tag is Mewelde Moore. Last year, Moore earned just $1.1 million. This year, his cap value is just a shade under $2 million. I heart MM at the former price tag; not quite as much at the later.

*If you were wondering why Jeff Reed wasn't signed this summer, let me just say that it probably had very little to do with his proclivity to destroy towel dispensers and much more to do with the fact that he could be replaced by an unknown young kicker that our scouts liked for about 1/5 the cost - at most. Even more money needs to be freed up to pay for guys like LaMarr Woodley and Santonio Holmes - so expect another round of retooling next year to make room for those guys our front office believes are harder to replace than guys like Reed.

*I didn't include it in the chart, but it's worth noting that Kendall Simmons is also taking up a sizable chunk of salary cap room as 'dead money'. If my figures are correct, he's taking up close to $5 million of cap space this year despite not having taken a snap in God knows how long. Again, these kinds of unforeseen circumstances require adjustments that may seem less risky or consequential on paper than they play out to be.

I had originally decided to not post this and keep working on it until it was better written and more thoroughly thought out on my end. The idea kind of came to me just last night, and I tried to fit all this in in between finishing up my obligations for two of my final graduate school classes. There's more I'd like to say and elaborate on, but what the hell, it's 5:30 out here and I may not get a chance to get back to it for another day or so. So I'll just open it up to you all's thoughts for now, and will definitely revisit it myself soon enough.

In the meantime, perhaps this will provide a new narrative as to why the Steelers are undergoing some of the mystifying problems they're experiencing so far in the 2009 season.

Thoughts?

BTSC Weekly Comcast RedZone Update - Week 13 Edition

Blitzburgh — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 09:08:24 -0000

On to our weekly red zone update post. Many thanks to Comcast for sponsoring BTSC and the other SBNfootball blogs this season. Their Red Zone Channel continues to received rave reviews so if you find yourself frustrated watching out of market games and are missing more football than you should each week, check out the channel and consider at least catching each and every play league wide inside the 20 yard line.

Week 13 Red Zone Efficiency:

5 trips, 2 TDs, 1 FG, 2 turnovers (1 on downs)

2009 Cumulative Red Zone Efficiency:

41 Trips; 20 TDs; 15 FGs; 1 missed FG, 5 turnovers...48.8 % TD efficiency (-1.2%) 85.3 % scoring efficiency (-3.5%)

The Steelers red zone struggles against Oakland were just as responsible for the team dropping its fourth straight as was the porous pass defense down the stretch. The Steelers were better in the 2nd half converting their opportunities deep inside Oakland territory, but in the 1st half, Pittsburgh managed just 3 points on 3 RZ trips. Following a 80+ yard kickoff return by Stefan Logan on the game's first play, the Steelers ominously had to settle for just three points. Then on their next two trips inside the Raiders 20, Pittsburgh was stuffed on 4th and 1 from the 5 yard line, and then Big Ben threw a costly and sloppy interception in the back of the endzone that kept Oakland very much in the game heading into intermission.

There's been a legion of things one could point their finger to when trying to explain why the defending champions are just 6-6 this year, but without question, the team's inability to capitalize on scoring opportunities deep inside enemy territory has to be right up there near the top.

BTSC Weekly NFL Musings - Week 13 Edition

Blitzburgh — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 00:24:21 -0000

Another week in the 2009 NFL season almost in the books. For Steelers fans, tonight's game between the Baltimore Ravens and Green Bay Packers is quite important. I'm not quite sure how I feel about either of these two teams - they've both been fairly erratic all year. Both are dangerous though. I will say this - we'll learn a lot about Baltimore tonight. If they are able to go in to Lambeau Field and take down the surging Packers in front of an amped up MNF crowd, then I really like their chances to snag one of the final playoff spots in the AFC. Should be a good one.

On to some other thoughts and notes from this weekend's action.

Editor's note: I've included a few thoughts about Cincinnati that were not included in the initial post.

* Let's start in the AFC with a quick shout out to the Denver Broncos, Miami Dolphins and the Jacksonville Jaguars. All three Wild Card contenders won this week - Miami over New England, Denver over the rival Chiefs, and Jacksonville over the fading Texans. By winning their past two games, Denver seems to have ended their mid-season slide. We'll see though what they're really made of...i.e. if they're to be taken seriously as a threat to do anything in the playoffs...when they travel to Indianapolis and to Philadelphia in the next few weeks. Same goes for Jacksonville. They're in plenty solid shape for now, but they must host Miami and Indianapolis the next two weeks before traveling to New England to play a Patriots team that is still quite tough at home. As for Miami, hats off to them for continuing to battle hard each and every week. They hung around, hung around, hung around, then capitalized late to take down the visiting Pats. Next week's game against the Jaguars should be very, very interesting, not to mention incredibly critical for both teams. Steelers fans should be rooting for Miami next week.

* I got this email from Josh, who does a very nice job comandeering things at Cincy Jungle, SBNs Bengals blog. Here's what he wrote:

The Steelers have always been known for having a great rushing offense and a strong as hell defense. The Bengals took that model and ran with it -- they're fourth overall on defense with a first scoring defense. The Bengals rushing offense has rushed for over 100 yards or more in nine of their 12 games this year -- three different RBs have 100-yard games in the past three games.

However, we're not blowing teams out that we should beat. Like the Brownies or the Lions.

My question is simple. When Pittsburgh used that formula for so long, were fans upset that they didn't blow out lesser teams?

Couple thoughts about that very interesting inquiry. First of all, a bit of context. The Bengals continue to win behind an amazingly strong commitment to the running game on offense, solid game management and timely passing from veteran QB Carson Palmer, and most impressively, behind a defense that continues to play tough each week. On Sunday, Cincy took down the Detroit Lions, 23-13. Cedric Benson rushed for 110 yards on 36 carries. Carson Palmer threw two picks that helped keep the Lions in the game, but conversely, C. OchoCinco had 9 catches for 137 yards and 1 TD. Meanwhile, the Bengals defense picked off Matthew Stafford twice, sacked him three times, and pressured him countless others. (Yes, I still contend Stafford should have been shut down weeks ago, but certainly no later than after his putrid performance against the Packers on Thanksgiving. He's going to get killed out there playing hurt like that. Shut.him.down.).

Back to the Bengals. They're 4th in total yards allowed, 1st in scoring defense, 1st in 3rd Down percentage. They shorten games with their commitment to the run, and they have a quarterback who may not be quite as lethal as he once was, but is still nevertheless one of the five, six, or seven best quarterbacks in this league depending on who you ask. They're a team to be reckoned with, for sure. More on them from me soon actually.

* The Tennessee Titans miraculous run back in to contention comes to an end in Indianapolis on Sunday. Tip of the cap to them for what they've accomplished but as I suspected last week, the Titans had dug themselves too big a hole to start the year to be considered 'contenders' down the stretch. I'll be curious to see now if they're able to drum up the same enthusiasm and competitive spirit in their final four games now that it appears they're once more in too big a hole to dig their way out of. The Titans actually played fairly well against the Colts, and the game could have been different had Nate Washington not dropped a perfectly thrown bomb that was going to be a guaranteed touchdown. But it was also their inability to manufacture touchdowns when they breached the redzone cost them. Can't win against Peyton Manning this year when you have to settle for FGs.

* Wow, kind of like the Steelers, the Washington Redskins continue to find new and amazing ways to lose football games this year. Watch the highlights of their late meltdown against the undefeated Saints here if you haven't already seen them. Last week I wrote that I'd be surprised if they didn't take down either the Giants or the Cowboys down the stretch and subsequently hurt one of their respective playoff chances. I'm sticking by that - the 'Skins are still a very competent 3-9 team and a great value for quite some time now as frequent underdogs.

* Just might be the Saints year. If it's not the Steelers - which certainly appears to be the case - than my personal preference would be for them to win it all. We'll see though - they continue to show vulnerability on defense at times.

* What an impressive win by the Arizona Cardinals over Minnesota last night. I was impressed by just how well they played on both sides, but I wasn't all that surprised by the outcome. I thought Ken Whisenhunt would get them focused on the task at hand immediately following their loss to the Titans the previous week:

I trust Ken Whisenhunt & Co. to not implode in any way, shape, or form. But by losing that nailbiter in Nashville, the Cards suddenly have a smaller margin for error this next couple of weeks. We'll learn something about this Cardinals team this next two weeks. I like their chances to shut the door early and often on San Francisco, beginning with a statement win this coming weekend against the Minnesota Vikings.

Well, thanks to the 49ers losing a close one at Seattle, the Cards extended their lead out West back to 3 games. Congratulations to Whiz and Grimm for turning a once-hopeless franchise in to one of the more well-rounded and impressive teams in all of football. It helps to have Kurt Warner playing at a ridiculously high level these past two years...and to have some of the most electric and skilled playmakers in all of sports in Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, but the work the coaching staff and player personnel department has done in Arizona has made that team far from a 'one-trick-pony.' Do not at all be surprised to see them back in the NFC Championship Game.

* So long Gary Kubiak. I actually feel the Texans have been wise not pulling the cord on him the past few years, but given the talent on their roster this year and the way they've been hanging touch most weeks only to collpase late in ballgames, I think he's probably earned himself a pinkslip out of his duties coaching the Texans. Mike Shanahan would be wise to take that gig over the Redskins job if you ask me. Clearly not the same level of prestige attached to the position, and perhaps the paydays will be a bit smaller, but their roster is in much better shape than is Washington's. Plus, in D.C., he'd be hamstrung by other entrenched front office folks. No, I'm not talking about Dan Snyder. He's actually learned to not meddle and to be more patient. It's Vinny Cerrato that's the problem there and he'd still want tight control over player personnel decisions, I'd guess. In Houston, Shanny would be granted much more control over building a program in his own vision.

* Stat of the week #1: Number of trips inside Carolina's redzone for Tampa Bay - 8.........Number of points scored by Tampa on those 8 trips: 6.

* Stat of the week #2: By throwing a TD pass Sunday in the Colts win over the Titans, make it 12 straight seasons that P. Manning has thrown at least 25 TD passes. Grrr, hate having to acknowledge his greatness, but that's pretty absurd.

* Quick thought to conclude about Rex Ryan of the Jets calling out Mark Sanchez for not sliding in the 2nd half of their win over Buffalo last Thursday. Ryan's point was essentially this: the team has invested so heavily in him and believes so much in his ability to take them to great places for many years, that he has to do a better job of knowing when and how to protect himself out there in this mind bogglingly violent game. Remember, Ryan even had brought in Joe Girardi to help Sanchez learn how to slide.

Anyway, as it relates to the Steelers - I've heard it a million times on here that people think it's impossible for competitors like Big Ben or Troy Polamalu to play a bit more intelligently in terms of protecting their bodies. Well, Rex Ryan - a total 'football guy' from one of the league's great football families - disagrees. I do too. I think Big Ben in particular has to learn how to avoid taking some of the hits that he does each week if he is interested in accomplishing the future goals I know he still has for himself.

Poll

The Steelers Will Make The Playoffs. True or False?

Monday Night Football Open Thread

Blitzburgh — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 01:04:27 -0000

Monday Night Football Open Thread

If you're going to be watching tonight's important Monday Night Football Game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Green Bay Packers, chat away with fellow Steelers fans (myself included) as the action unfolds. Who knows if the Steelers will get their act together and make a run at a playoff berth, but if they do, it would help if they got a little bit of help from their fellow contenders, beginning tonight at Lambeau Field.

Latest Steelers Loss Leaves Fans Wondering

Blitzburgh — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 04:06:27 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

In Tomlin I Trust. But I, nor he I'd imagine, ever thought it'd be all peaches and cream for his entire tenure in Pittsburgh. That's not the way things work in the NFL. That's not the way things work in life. Tomlin, like the rest of us, needs to get better.

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Some more comprehensive thoughts about the Steelers 24-27 loss on Sunday at home to the Oakland Raiders. As always, they're mostly rambling in nature, a combination of both positive and negative thoughts, and contextualized within a broader framework of the realities of life in the National Football League since the historic 1993 Collective Bargaining Agreement.

* One of the beautiful things about the National Football League is just how much of a team game it really is. You can't really win in this league with just one, or even two or three outstanding players if the rest of the roster is average to below average. You need depth to win, even in years when the injury bug doesn't strike. And when players do go down, which happens most every year, you need to have adequate backups ready to fill in and contribute. Where am I going with this? Well, just a few prefacing thoughts about how I'm perfectly aware that the Steelers struggles can't be attributed solely to the absence of Troy Polamalu on defense. But it's pretty telling just how differently this defense has performed with and without #43 in the lineup. Here are some of the more telling figures:

Record: With Polamalu, 4-1....Without Polamalu, 2-5

Points per Game Allowed: With Polamalu13.8....Without Polamalu, 23.1

TD passes allowed: With Polamalu, 2.... Without Polamalu, 13

Interceptions: With Polamalu, 7....Without Polamalu,1

Takeaways: With Polamalu, 11...Without Polamalu, 5

Now, going back to my original statement about football and the NFL in particular are interesting - almost every play requires the small and often unnoticeable contributions of multiple guys for things to work out as designed. That can be said of both offensive and defensive plays. A successful play requires more than just the guys throwing and catching the balls; and on defense, the defender who defends the pass or makes the tackle. It's impossible for us to see everything unfold from the angles provided on television broadcasts. But as fans and 'students' of the game, we understand this reality without necessarily understanding why or how all the disparate parts on an NFL field work together to make up what happens each play, series, game, and season. A couple of obvious examples are how the Steelers rush defense is predicated on Aaron Smith, Brett Keisel and Casey Hampton clogging the gaps in the interior so that teammates behind them can clean up and make a play. Their unheralded work ensures that offensive linemen can't get anywhere close to the next level to get a hat on our LBs and DBs to open up even bigger plays in the running game. On the other side of the ball, plays like those bubble screens to Santonio Holmes require Heath Miller and/or Hines Ward to get a necessary block on a cornerback so that Holmes has a bit of operating room to work with initially after the catch. Without the blocks, the plays are gobbled up for zero or negative yardage. With the right blocks Holmes looks like a baller after the catch.

Said differently, unlike baseball games which are essentially a multitude of 1-on-1 confrontations for the most part (pitcher vs. batter), or basketball games, which often times (at least in the NBA) are decided by which team has the best individual player with the most unguardable 1-on-1 moves, NFL contests are generally speaking more decidedly determined by subtle actions/contributions from players not directly involved in the outcome of specific plays.

What's my point? Well, I guess I'm trying to say that it's not exactly clear how Polamalu may or may not make his teammates in the secondary better. I wish it was more easily quantifiable or even identifiable. There are some nascent statistical outfits that are trying to do things like this..i.e. measure the value of particular players in ways beyond just the traditional statistical metrics like tackles, INTs, yards, etc. But for the most part, we're still all largely uneducated - or at least ill-equipped with the necessary viewing angles - to better understand how all 11 guys on each side of the ball work together most plays.

Anyway, I'm admitting that I can't 'prove' it in any legitimately cogent way, but I really have to believe that Polamalu makes guys like Ryan Clark, Ike Taylor, Lawrence Timmons, James Farrior and Deshea Townsend much better than they otherwise are.

Unfortunately for the Steelers, that doesn't really cut it in today's NFL. This is a discussion for another day, but I suppose the only solution really is to retool the roster some this spring and summer so that the team is not so heavily dependent on #43's presence.

* I said it last week and I'll say it once more...even though it pains me to do so. The Steelers will be better off in 2010 and beyond because of the growing pains that their youngsters are going through this year. William Gay, Ryan Mundy, Joe Burnett, Ziggy Hood, Stefan Logan - all these guys will be better because of all the experience they're accumulating this year. The Steelers don't overspend in free agency - sometimes that may be to their disadvantage, which I wrote all summer I thought was the case with Bryant McFadden (mostly because he wasn't expensive, or over the hill age-wise). What the Steelers do instead is build through the draft, develop their young talent, and position themselves nicely to make repeated runs at Super Bowls every so often when their draft classes that are particularly strong get the requisite seasoning and experience.

I wrote this earlier in the year before it was apparent just how much this year's team would struggle:

I just wanted to throw this discussion starter out there to see what some of you guys thought - are the Steelers making more little mistakes early on in the 2009 season because they are working in a high volume of rookies compared to in years past? It's fairly well documented that rookies don't often see the field much during their first season in Pittsburgh. There have been exceptions, for sure, but for the most part, players are forced to learn the ropes for a year or two behind more seasoned, veteran players before getting their first real crack at making an impact for the Black 'n Gold.

Again, I'm not really pointing to specific plays or instances where the 2009 Steelers rookie class has cost the team. I'm just making a general point that the team is working in far more young bodies than we are accustomed to. This will pay dividends for the organization down the road, and perhaps even for this team later on in the 2009 season. There will be more growing pains though I'd guess before things really all start to come together for this particular squad. That's part of the process and the reality of life in the National Football League. As fans, we must be both excited about all the fresh talent in the pipeline while also remaining realistic about the growing curve that these young players must face and overcome before consistently contributing to a ballclub with championship aspirations.

Well, a couple months and four more losses later, we're seeing the Steelers rookies as well as the second year players (but first year starters) make easily identifiable and costly mistakes that are costing this team ball games. I'll stick with my guns though - it's going to make this team better down the road. Questioning the talent evaluation abilities of Kevin Colbert and his army of scouts is simply ridiculous given their track record. We, as fans, must just wait for much of this young talent to 'grow up' a bit in this insanely competitive and pressure-packed league.

* Case in point - Joe Burnett's total whiff of a game-clinching interception on the Raiders final drive. Not even going to bag on Burnett for the gaffe. The kid's a proven ball-hawk and sure-handed defensive back from his college days. And hell, junior varsity high school players across our great country make that catch every Friday night. Burnett muffed it under the pressure of sealing a W for his reeling team.

* Finally a big play contribution from KR/PR Stefan Logan. Kudos to him for hanging in there and continuing to run hard after what I imagine has been somewhat of a frustrating season for him personally. Again, not like he's been bad by any stretch of the imagination. I just figure he probably had higher expectations for himself coming out of training camp and the preseason. His 83 yard return on the game's opening kickoff put the Steelers in prime position to jump out to an early 7-0 lead. Perhaps foreshadowing what was to come for the Steelers in the redzone, Pittsburgh had to settle for 3 points after going pass, run, pass and picking up just 4 yards.

* Ike Taylor got the flack for allowing several big plays on Sunday, and once again, the criticism is essentially deserved. But let me quickly talk about the heave Gradkowski threw to Lois Murphy on the game-winning drive - the lobbed, lame duck throw that Murphy rose up to and snagged away from Taylor that gave the Raiders reason to believe they could actually pull it out. Well, re-watch that play and noticed what Deshea Townsend contributed on that play. Um, nothing. We don't expect Deshea to be a head hunter in the running game or to lay the wood frequently in the dime and nickel packages he plays in. But we do expect the savvy veteran to show a good sense...a veteran sense...of how to locate a desperation heave like that with multiple teammates surrounding him. Not sure what's going on with one of the more important Steelers defenders this decade but whatever it is, it's not good. In fact, it may be hurting the team more than anybody's really talking about. Just think how important he was last year in important moments when teams were trying to come from behind. Disappointing stuff.

* On a similar note...on the ensuing Raiders kickoff return, who was it returning the kick for Oakland but the one and only Gary Russell, last year's return man in Pittsburgh? Russell actually would return that kickoff 34 yards to put Oakland in business on their first offensive series of the game. The Raiders would convert a 4th and 1 from the Steelers 49 yard line before having to settle for a field goal of their own, a successful 48 yard boot from the mercurial Sebastian Janikowski.

Couple things about that opening sequence of drives. 1) I thought the Steelers offensive balance was just fine for the most part. How could you not really? Ben Roethlisberger threw the ball 24 times while the trio of Rashard Mendenhall, Willie Parker and Mewelde Moore had 24 combined carries. Still, on that first offensive series following the long Logan kickoff return, I would have liked to see the offense come out and prove they were ready to 'raise hell' on their remaining opponents by going to the running game early and often. Now, obviously a negative run on 2nd and 5 put the Steelers in a 'passing situation', but given how bad Oakland's rush defense is (31st in Y/G), and how legitimately decent they are against the pass (215.8 Y/G), I thought the Steelers could have stood to lean on the running game even more than they did all game. I'm usually one who's in favor of taking to the air if all relevant variables are equal, but I would say that this game was one where the team could have sacrificed some of the success they were having through the air to A) shorten the game knowing the team would be playing a few short days from Sunday...B) minimize the risk of Ben Roethlisberger taking unnecessary hits in the passing game...and C) get a win that resembled 'Steelers football'..i.e. a win that was done via smash mouth, not-always-pretty football.

Anyway, like I said, the balance was by no means awful today. It was just fine. On to Oakland's first sequence though. Loved the play call on 3rd and 10 when they opted to run with Justin Fargas rather than playing in to the Steelers hands and trying to throw the ball in the face of blitzing pressure. The result was a 9 yard gain that set up 4th and 1 from Pittsburgh's 49. Tom Cable aggressively went for it, even though a failed conversion risked putting his team down an early 6 or even worse yet, 10 points, on the road. It was a little discussed decision, but it actually somewhat set the tone for the rest of the game. Oakland was here to play.

* One other thought about that 4th down call from Oakland on their opening series, as well as how Pittsburgh defended it. Is it just me or have the Steelers too often over committed to stuffing the run in situations like that this year only to get beat on quick passes, screens, or flare outs on the perimeter that have left a linebacker on a speedier running back or bigger tight end? I say just let the defensive line + the outside linebackers + one of the safetys do their best to plug up the run and make sure that the ILBs + the CBs + the other safety are all 100% prepared for something happening on the perimeter. On the Raiders successful 4th down conversion, Lawrence Timmons and Tyrone Carter were a step behind the play - a 10 yard pitch and catch to Justin Fargas.

* Speaking of the rush defense, the Steelers still sport the league's best rush defense through 12 games, and it's next to impossible that either Green Bay (currently 4th) or Baltimore (6th) surpasses them after MNF tomorrow. Pittsburgh has allowed just 77.8 yards per game, but have given up 100 yard games for consecutive weeks now, and have allowed their opponent to surpass the century mark four times through 12 games. By comparison, last year's defense only allowed 100+ rushing yards in a game four times all season. That's not to say the rush defense has been horrid this year, or for that matter even significantly worse, but there nevertheless has been a dropoff.

* I try not to 'speak' in a hyperbolic nature very often, but I will say that I think Ryan Mundy will never be worthy of a starting spot in a Pittsburgh Steelers secondary. Mundy was awful down the stretch on Sunday. His unnecessary roughness hit on the Raiders' game-winning drive was I suppose somewhat questionable, but it also wasn't very smart any way you cut it. At worst, you have to make sure you're not delivering a helmet-to-helmet hit there. I've had plenty of issues with the way Ryan Clark has played this year, but to his credit, one thing he never does is lead with his helmet on those big hits he tries (sometimes too often) to deliver on would be receivers over the middle. He instead leads with his shoulder which (thankfully) rarely, if ever, gets called in this league. Helmet-to-helmet hits do get called though, particularly in today's game. Not smart. Then, to get beat cheating up on Zack Miller, the Raiders tight end on the game-winning touchdown is equally inexcusable. I didn't like the decision to send a corner blitz there at all, but it was called, and Munday and the other safety in the game (Clark, I believe) were asked to handle pass-coverage responsibilities alongside a few linebackers in place of the blitzing CBs. Well, Mundy didn't play as if he had concrete coverage responsibilities and allowed Lois Murphy to break free of him for the touchdown reception.

* I have to hand it to Bruce Gradkowski for his performance on Sunday, but in particular for that game-winning TD throw to Murphy. That was a perfectly thrown ball with his feet not set as Brett Keisel was bearing down in his face and throwing window. As I was watching that final play, I said 'ballgame' before the ball was thrown but after it was apparent the blitzing Steelers were not going to get to Gradkowski as was designed.

* I've seen some people criticizing the Steelers offensive line for their performance on Sunday, but I don't at all agree with that assessment. Though the majority of Rashard Mendenhall's 103 yards came on a 60 yard run in the 1st quarter, the Steelers offensive line still did some nice things in both the running and passing game. Big Ben was sacked just once and had time to throw much of the afternoon. They weren't dominant, but we never really though they would be, even against some of the weaker defensive lines in the league. They continued though to hold their own and not be responsible for the team's troubles, which of course could be said of them last year.

* I'll be doing my usual weekly league-wide musings soon enough, but I will say this for now - root like hell for Green Bay tomorrow night when they host the visiting Baltimore Ravens. With Denver and Jacksonville winning on Sunday, the Steelers could benefit from a Ravens loss. There are plenty of Steelers fans who have written off this year, and I suppose I can't blame them. It's been awfully frustrating and disappointing to see professionals perform like this. I myself am not making any predictions about this team anymore because they have proven too often that they can play great yet find new and amazing ways to lose games. But I will say this - one of the immensely fun and captivating aspects of being an NFL fan is dissecting each and every way that our favorite team can sneak in to the playoffs provided X, Y, Z happens.

Don't get me wrong, the teams that are relegated to league-wide 'scoreboard watching' down the stretch usually...scratch that, almost always....get bounced in the 1st round of the playoffs. That's not the point though. You can't win it ever year. At best, you just hope that there's any reason at all to tune in to watch your favorite team play come the final month of the season other than simply because that's what you do for 16 weeks each fall and winter.

The 2009 Pittsburgh Steelers - despite their myriad flaws, frustrating tendencies, and seemingly certain fate as a non-contender for the Lombardi Trophy - still are more than mathematically still in it with four games to go. You won't hear any such sentiments or reflections from me if the Steelers were to lose at Cleveland on Thursday. And that's not just because they'd probably be very, very close to mathematically out of it were they to lose. It's also because the defending champs just best not lose to the lowly Browns following four straight losses (at least 3 or which they definitely should have won).

I say that even though the game's on the road and even though I'm as big a proponent as anybody for tempering annual expectations in this league due to how the league's been systematically structured in the 1993 Collective Bargaining Agreement and the subsequent revisions to it since then - that is to say that it's nothing novel or historic to see a defending champion like the Steelers - with seemingly top 10 talent on both sides of the ball - struggle or look little like the team that had won it all the previous year. It's frustrating and it's easy to point the finger, but unless you have a the greatest quarterback in the history of this league, Peyton Manning, you're going to endure some serious peaks and valleys over the years as a result of the way this league has been structured to promote ridiculously competitive games and playoff races every year. Without a robotically efficient and perfectly groomed QB like Manning guiding your team over the years, your team's just not going to be able to sustain the effects of injuries, bad luck, poor defense some weeks/years, bad coaching, etc, etc, etc to win consistently. We're seeing that with New England in recent years; we're seeing it with Pittsburgh this year and in 2006; we've seen it with New Orleans in 2007 and 2008 following their run to the NFC Title Game in Brees' first year. Some years things come together perfectly - which is what we may be seeing in both New Orleans and Indianapolis. Other years very good rosters somehow find little ways to miss out on opportunities to build something special as a group. The Steelers most certainly seem to be in one of those seriously annoying down years where that's the case.

BUT, as Lloyd Christmas once said, 'so you're saying there's a chance?'

Yes, for at least another week, yes there is. And for that I'm still grateful and excited, no matter how let down and disappointed I continue to feel come the end of too many weekends this fall.

Steelers Allow Another Late Lead To Slip Away, Drop Fourth Straight To Fall To 6-6

Blitzburgh — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 23:58:28 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

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A more comprehensive recap and thoughts from me soon enough, but a few preliminary notes from the Pittsburgh Steelers fourth straight loss on Sunday - a 27-24 stunning defeat at the hands of the lowly Oakland Raiders. Congratulations to Pittsburgh native Bruce Gradkowski and the Raiders for pulling off the stunner at Heinz Field. Once again though, the Steelers did everything in their power to hand away the game late in the contest.

* The Oakland Raiders had yet to score 21 points in any game this year. They scored 21 points in the 4th quarter alone to come from behind and beat the Steelers. Oh my.

* 229 yards of total offense for Oakland on their last three drives - all touchdowns.

* Redzone inefficiency kept this game closer than it should have been. Pittsburgh mustered just three points on their first three trips inside the Oakland 20. Even getting two more field goals there puts the Steelers in healthy position. Instead, the Steelers failed on a 4th and 1 attempt from the 5 yard line and Big Ben threw a costly interception late in the 1st half.

* There's a whole lot to be disappointed and frustrated with in this most recent late-game meltdown, but remember that if Joe Burnett makes the most elementary and simple of interceptions on that final drive, the Steelers win. There was nobody near the rookie cornerback. And it's not like he doesn't have a solid history of snagging the ball when given the chance - at least in college. But on the big stage of the National Football League with his team needing a play, Burnett totally whiffed on an interception that hit him between the 2 and the 7.

* Probably time for this team - players and coaches - to keep their mouth shut and just play this next four games. They're still not down for the count just yet, but they're awfully close. And by now, they've proven that they're just not as formidable as they and we all thought they were heading in to the season.

* More from me soon. Groan away here for now.

BTSC Weekly Comcast RedZone Update - Week 12 Edition

Blitzburgh — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 05:13:21 -0000

On to our weekly red zone update post. Many thanks to Comcast for sponsoring BTSC and the other SBN football blogs this season. Their Red Zone Channel continues to received rave reviews so if you find yourself frustrated watching out of market games and are missing more football than you should each week, check out the channel and consider at least catching each and every play league wide inside the 20 yard line.

Week 12 Red Zone efficiency:

0 trips

2009 Cumulative Red Zone Efficiency:

36 Trips; 18 TDs; 14 FGs; 1 missed FG, 3 turnovers...50.0 % TD efficiency (+1.7%) 88.8 % scoring efficiency (-1.5%)

Well, that was easy wasn't it? Both of Pittsburgh's two touchdowns came on plays that happened outside the Ravens 20 yard line. Jeff Reed also had a longish FG attempt for the first time in a few weeks. Obviously yards were at a premium last Sunday night with the inexperienced Dennis Dixon making his first professional start in hostile territory. Dixon and the offense had their moments, but had very few sustained drives, and none that breached the Baltimore 20 yard line. Something tells me we'll see the Steelers deep inside Raiders territory more frequently this coming Sunday.