SB Nation User Blog: Blitzburgh

Comcast Weekly Red Zone Update - Week 9 Edition

Blitzburgh — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 08:23:19 -0000

Let's resume our weekly tally of the Pittsburgh Steelers performance in the red zone during the 2009 season. Once more, many thanks to Comcast's Red Zone Channel for sponsoring BTSC and the rest of the SBN football blogs this year. Not bad for the Steelers this week in the red zone. If not for Big Ben's pick late in the 3rd quarter with the Steelers up 4 and threatening to blow the game open, the Steelers would have had a dandy day inside their opponents' 20.

Week 9 Red Zone Efficiency:

3 trips; 2 TDs; 1 INT,

2009 Cumulative Red Zone Efficiency:

27 Trips; 15 TDs; 9 FGs; 1 missed FG, 2 turnoves - 55.6 % TD efficiency (+1.4%) 88.9 % scoring efficiency (-2.7%)

Steelers 28 - Denver 10 - More Post Game React

Blitzburgh — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 00:08:59 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

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Some more thoughts from me about last night's joyous 28-10 victory by the Pittsburgh Steelers over the Denver Broncos.

* I actually really enjoyed the commentating by Jon Gruden and Ron Jaworski last night. Gruden in particular. I said to my girlfriend, 'what game are you watching' when he was convinced that Rashard Mendenhall had fumbled inside the 5 yard line. But outside of that, I really enjoyed listening to him gush about the Steelers organization - from top to bottom. Sure, he and Jaws were going a little overboard in their praise of Ty Law and the rest of the Broncos over-hyped secondary, but generally speaking, I thought they were great - mostly because they couldn't stop with their effusive praise of the Steelers.

* Elvis Dumer-who? Max Starks gobbled up the 5'11" pass-rushing linebacker.

* Brett Keisel has matched his sack total from the previous two season combined (3) in his last two games.

* The Steelers set a franchise record last night by scoring 27 or more points for their fifth consecutive game.

* With his 3 touchdown passes last night, Big Ben increased his 2009 season total to 14. That puts him just 3 TDs shy of his total from last year, and 4 scores shy of his second highest total ever, 18, which he had in 2006.

* I didn't get to either of these two guys in last night's post, but kudos to Nick Eason and David Johnson for quietly having solid games. Eason was very active running from sideline to sideline, while Johnson did a mostly solid job blocking for Rashard Mendenhall.

* Mentioning David Johnson makes me think about just how many rookies are playing this year for the Steelers. Think about it. Every last draft pick is still with the team and a very healthy share of them have made game day contributions for this team.

* While we're still on the subject of rookies, that was almost an extremely critical penalty by Joe Burnett at the end of the half when he ran in to Mitch Berger. It was only a 5 yard penalty, but it very well could have been 15 and put the Broncos back in business before the end of the half.

* I heart Casey Hampton. I really wonder if he'll be around in future years (I sure hope so), but he's still such a warrior out there. He just blows up the interior of offensive lines - has done so now for just about a decade.

* I suppose one other beef I had with the telecast was the announcing crew clamoring about why neither Josh McDaniels nor Mike Tomlin called a timeout in that end of half sequence. It made no sense for Coach Tomlin to call a timeout there, even if the Broncos were faced with 3rd and 12. There was fewer than 30 seconds left and frankly, the Steelers were a bit fortunate to be up 7-3 at that point. The half had blown by quickly and the Steelers offense had only been on the field for 3 series. Denver meanwhile had just converted a 3rd and long and I thought it made no sense to let the Broncos talk it over and dial up a play of their choosing. By not calling timeout, they were guaranteed more or less to run that conservative draw that they ran. Sure it meant we wouldn't have a chance to score, but there wasn't much time on the clock anyway, and at best, the Steelers would have had a very outside shot at getting a field goal. Finally, when you factor in the fact that we were going to get the ball to start the 2nd half. No harm, no foul there by Coach T. I liked the decision just fine.

Steelers Rout Broncos, Win Fifth Straight To Improve To 6-2

Blitzburgh — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 05:52:38 -0000

More photos » AP

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Yes sir! Love that performance by the Pittsburgh Steelers following their BYE Week. That's the look of a championship caliber team Steeler Nation. The following are some of my notes I took during the game, as well as some post-game reflections.

* First things first - pay attention NFL - the defending champs are hitting their stride! This is the most physical and violent team in football on defense and the offense is looking vastly improved from a year ago. For a night at least, the special teams were better as well. Could spell trouble for the rest of the league if the Steelers continue on this trajectory. Very, very convincing win on the road and lots to be excited about if you're a Steelers fan.

* I'd like to start by giving William Gay some credit for improving his game in the 2nd half. The Broncos came out throwing right at Gay's man, Eddie Royal. And they did so successfully. Royal caught the first three passes thrown to him, making opposing quarterbacks 30-of-42 throwing at William Gay. That's not going to cut it. But Gay, to his immense credit, responded nicely from that point on. He would have had an interception if Troy Polamalu hadn't crashed in to him on the drive where Denver got their lone offensive points of the night, a field goal. Gay also had a nice break up of a potential Jabar Gafney catch on a big 3rd down in the 2nd quarter. Then, in the 2nd half, Gay and the whole Steelers defense exposed the Broncos offense for what it is - nothing special.

* Stats of the Game: 2nd half total yards comparison: Pittsburgh 316 , Denver 59. Total beatdown for the final 30 minutes.

* One of the key moments early in the game was when Ike Taylor had an outstanding tackle on Brandon Marshall on a 3rd and short play. The Broncos were having a little success offensively in the first half, and a first down there would have kept a drive alive inside Steelers territory. Taylor stood Marshall up though and the Broncos were forced to punt.

* Mitch Berger ladies and gentlemen! The guy hasn't changed a bit since last year. Berger had 7 punts and averaged just 38.6 yards per kick. His shank early in the game got the Steelers out of the shadow of their own goal line and swung the momentum ever so slightly early on. That was helpful. Thanks Mitch. Daniel Sepulveda meanwhile had one of his best game as a Steeler. He had 5 punts and averaged just 44.2 yards per punt - not an astronomical number by any means. But all of his kicks after his first awkward attempt that actually took an amazing bounce for him were clean, high hang-time kicks that limited Eddie Royal's impact in the return game. Sepulveda also made a really nice play when he pushed Royal out of bounds on one of his returns. If you get a chance to re-watch the game, keep an eye out for that play and take a look at the really impressive closing speed he displayed on that tackle. Not that it matters - he's paid to punt - but it was still good to see.

* At $1.01 million dollars, Tyrone Carter is one of the best 'bangs for the buck' on our roster. Congratulations to him on a monster game playing for Ryan Clark. Carter had two interceptions, returning one back for the first touchdown of the game. It was awesome seeing Clark congratulate and celebrate with Carter after both his big plays. That's what Steelers football is all about. By the way, I hope the front office can find a way to squeeze out a deal this summer with Ryan Clark to keep him around for at least another couple of years. This guy's clearly a warrior and team player. And he still has some good football left in him.

* Speaking of the secondary, quick shout out to Ryan Mundy for making his first big play as a Pittsburgh Steeler. The situation - Denver's ball facing a 3rd and 5 from their own 30. It's late in the 3rd quarter with Pittsburgh having taken control but not quite in the clear with the score just 14-10. Orton throws it complete to Brandon Stokeley, and with the help of Deshea Townsend, Mundy stood up Stokeley a yard shy of the first down marker. Bigtime play that played a big role in why the Steelers offense was on the field for so much of the 2nd half.

* James Harrison is the most violent player in the National Football League. He's a clean player, which is a great thing. But man oh man, he's a total beast out there. The thought of getting lit up by him in the middle of the field is absolutely horrifying. I wouldn't be surprised if Correll Buckhalter sustained a concussion on that play late in the game where Deebo rang his bell on that errant throw by Orton.

* Speaking of Kyle Orton - you are what I thought you were - a serviceable but not very talented NFL quarterback. Orton was pretty sharp to start, but once the Steelers got in his face, we saw his limitations. He gets scared in the pocket and misfires when trying to rush the ball out before getting hit. And again we saw his inability to take shots down the field. Orton averaged just 5.4 yards per passing attempt against the Steelers - that won't get it done against the better teams in this league.

* After catching just one pass against the Minnesota Vikings, Hines Ward got his impressive statistical season back on track against the veteran-laden Broncos secondary. Ward had 7 catches for 44 yards and 2 TDs. Ward is now on pace for 98 catches, a shade under 1,300 yards and 8 TDs this season. One small note though about him that I liked from tonight - on Hines' first catch to start the 3rd quarter, he slipped after the catch, but was able to get back up by virtue of having not been contacted yet. Hines gets back up just to violently dive in to the Broncos defender for an extra couple of yards. More importantly though if you ask me, the play is the kind of play that makes it uncomfortable to play against Ward and the Pittsburgh Steelers. I love it.

The first of Ward's two touchdowns came on a perfectly thrown ball by Big Ben in to a very tight window inside the red zone. Very impressive throw by Ben and Ward jumped at just the right moment to extend and make the catch near the back of the end zone. On Ward's second touchdown, he left Champ Bailey in the dust, jumping right over him as Bailey went soft and tried to upend him rather than wrapping up. Ward skipped right over him and in to the end zone - with a smile on his face the entire time of course.

* Guys and gals, this offensive line is really turning in to a weapon. It's hard to name an MVP of a game where so many different people contributed, but I thought the Steelers offensive line was as deserving as anybody. The Broncos got after Big Ben early on and Chris Kemoeatu missed an assignment in the 3rd quarter that resulted in a fumble return for a touchdown. But other than that, the guys up front for Pittsburgh whooped Denver's 'top ranked defense.' Here was my main assessment of Denver's defense leading up to the game:

Denver's sound technically on defense, and they have savvy ball hawks and sure tacklers in the secondary, but they ain't that physical a team, particularly up front. My hunch is that will get exposed more and more as the year progresses.

Check. Pittsburgh pounded Denver in the second half, on both the ground and through the air. The running game was actually working fairly well in the 1st half, but the Steelers didn't have the ball for too much of the first 30 minutes. In the 2nd half, Mendenhall had 16 of his 22 carries. He finished with 155 yards on those 22 carries, good for just about 7 yards per pop. Give all the credit in the world to each and every one of the offensive linemen for mauling people in the running game. Willie Colon is starting to look like a Pro Bowl caliber right tackle. I can't believe I just typed that either, but it's true. He can still get better, and I think he will. Props also to Santonio and as always, Hines, for their work blocking on the perimeter. Mendenhall got a good extra 40 yards or so of running yards thanks to their work blocking down the field.

* Mike Wallace is a stud. I'm glad we made a video of him last week. We're going to have to keep adding to it though at this pace. Wallace hauled in four more passes for 69 yards and his third career touchdown.

* Keyaron Fox played awesome tonight. He finished with a team high 9 tackles tonight and he was equally good against the run as he was the pass. Awesome performance by him - the standard of expectation does not change.

* Ziggy! Welcome to the family my man. The 2009 1st Round Draft pick didn't actually get in the stat book, but that doesn't mean he didn't have an impact. He was in the Broncos backfield all night causing Kyle 'I'm scared of contact' Orton to throw earlier than he'd like.

* Brett Keisel - you are earning every last cent of that contract extension you signed this summer. I admit I wasn't thrilled about the move at the time, but my goodness has he been a difference maker the past two games. Against the Vikings he had the strip of Brett Favre that LaMarr Woodley took back for the score. Against the Broncos, Keisel had two more sacks and just looked like a man possessed. He's always been a high motor guy, but in the past, his tireless efforts weren't always resulting in difference making plays. The past two weeks - in Aaron Smith's absence mind you - Keisel's been able to get that extra inch and finish off some huuuge, game-changing plays. Outstanding stuff from one of the team's most well-liked and hard working players.

* Troy Polamalu is just better than everybody else on the football field. At all times. His sequence of plays where he shot the gap and stopped a run on 1st down then intercepted a pass a few short plays later was classic Polamalu. The guy's a freak. So fun to watch play.

* LaMarr Woodley is starting to find his groove rushing the passer. He didn't get a sack tonight but he was in the face of Orton all night. His continued improvement - which I think definitely will happen - is going to be a key reason why this defense will be peaking later in the year at just the right time.

* 6 passes thrown to Santonio Holmes. 6 catches for Santonio Holmes. #10 is really, really tough over the middle of the field and in traffic. He's really becoming a complete wide receiver in this league - a truly special talent that I hope stays in the Black & Gold for his entire career.

* And to close, wasn't it fun watching the Steelers close this one out with the running game? Seems like forever since that has happened but it most certainly did this evening. We'll take a closer look at the running game throughout the week, but for now, a tip of the cap to the offensive line, Rashard Mendenhall and Bruce Arians.

* What were your thoughts about this one? Should be fun next weekend! The first place Bengals travel to Heinz Field to take on the Steelers with first place in the North at stake. Can't wait!

Steelers Expose Broncos In 2nd Half, Thump Denver 28-10 - Celebration Open Thread

Blitzburgh — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 04:44:50 -0000

More photos » by Jack Dempsey - AP

The second half, in one frame.

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That, my friends, was a beatdown of epic proportions in the second half. We'll get to the stats and some analysis on the most impressive 28-10 victory soon enough, but for now, a bit of celebrating and discussing the outstanding 2nd half performance. It was a long 15 days waiting for this one. By game's end, it was well worth the wait.

6-2, with a meeting with Cincinnati next Sunday for first place in the AFC North. Going to be fun!

Go Steelers!

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2) @ Denver Broncos (6-1) - Week 9 Open Thread (2nd Half)

Blitzburgh — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 02:55:37 -0000

Well, it wasn't pretty but through one half, the Steelers are right where they need to be, ahead 7-3. They'll get the ball first to start the second half. The stories through one half was the lack of offensive plays for Pittsburgh, thanks in part to a defense that has given up a decent amount of yardage without breaking; the crucial mistake by Kyle Orton that led to a pick six by Tyrone Carter; and the advantage the Steelers have had in the punting game.

Let's Go Steelers!

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2) @ Denver Broncos (6-1) - Keys To The Game & Week 9 Open Thread (1st Half)

Blitzburgh — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 23:09:34 -0000

Finally! Game time is rapidly approaching. The Pittsburgh Steelers take the field tonight against the Denver Broncos in Denver after 15 days off. Will they be rested and sharp, or will they be a bit rusty and fall behind on the road against a Broncos team that's been good at protecting the football and holding on to ball games with opportunistic defense. Here are a few keys to the game that I think will go a long way towards determining who emerges victorious.

1) Limit the impact of return man Eddie Royal. The second year speedster returned both a kickoff and a punt against the Chargers. Pittsburgh meanwhile has been sloppy in their coverage units, particularly on kickoffs. Coach Tomlin promised to shore them up during the Bye Week. Will it happen? I hope so.

2) Limit the impact of tight end Tony Scheffler. He's not all that well known, but Denver tight end Tony Scheffler is really a fine football player, and really every bit as dangerous as Heath Miller and several other of the top tight ends in the AFC. Scheffler hurt Pittsburgh the last time the two teams met in 2007. He had 5 big catches and 1 touchdown. Because Kyle Orton isn't all that dangerous stretching the field or throwing the deep in and the deep out ball, it's important that Scheffler isn't a frequent option in the seam against the Steelers depleted defense, particularly if Ryan Clark doesn't play.

3) The Steelers need to be better in the red zone than they've been the previous two games. Pittsburgh was clicking inside the 20 during weeks 4,5, and 6, but struggled in Weeks 7 and 8. We'll see if scoring opportunities are hard to come by, but regardless, it's important to make Denver have to play from behind, something I don't think they're all that comfortable doing. Scoring 6 instead of 3 points when the opportunity arises is certainly one effective way towards ensuring that.

4) With Lawrence Timmons out, can the Steelers get enough pressure on the quarterback with their blitzing linebackers. Obviously James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley will be going after Kyle Orton all night, but the Ravens found success bringing extra pass rushers from the linebacker spot. The Steelers don't run the same exact defensive of course, but I think they'd also be well served sending James Farrior and/or Keyaron Fox up the middle on some stunts. Can they get there quick in time to disrupt Orton like Baltimore did?

5) If the Steeers do indeed send lots of pressure, can the secondary wrap up and tackle well in the short passing game? If Orton's forced to get rid of the ball, we'll surely see lots of those 3-8 yard passes that have given the Steelers some trouble this year. Will Dick LeBeau have his corners playing closer to the line of scrimmage in anticipation of Orton getting rid of the ball quickly?

6) Something tells me Troy Polamalu will make a 'splash' play in this one. I sure hope so.

7) Can Rashard Mendenhall do a better job not fumbling the football?

8) Will Bruce Arians have a healthy amount of running the football in tonight's pre-scripted game plan? Denver has been outstanding stopping the run, but something tells me our offensive line could be vamped up and ready to go tonight. Will they get a chance to maul some people in the running game? Or will they struggled to find a rhythm run blocking due to an inordinately high number of passing plays called.

9) Can we finally get a special teams play of our own? The Broncos are working in cast away punter Mitch Berger. Can Stefan Logan finally break through and earn his keep on this roster on an unimpressive punt by Berger?

10) Will Ben Roethlisberger take a page out of Orton's book and not force anything early in the game as the teams feel their way around one another? Big Ben was impressive last time he traveled to Denver, but he negated his otherwise fine performance with two costly interceptions and a fumble.

This is our 1st half open thread. Have fun! Enjoy your Monday evenings guys and gals. I'll be here throughout the game. Join me. Go Steelers!

BTSC Weekly NFL Musings - Week 9 Edition

Blitzburgh — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 06:50:05 -0000

Another Sunday come and gone. I got to watch about 8 hours of football this Sunday on Sunday Ticket. Was very pleased about that. And I was very pleased that there were so many good games after having to endure several mediocre weeks of action in the past month.

On to a few thoughts of mine before one final Broncos-Steelers related post prior to Monday Night Football.

* Wow, hats off to Cincinnati. The Bengals raced out to an early 1st quarter lead and held on late to defeat the Ravens 17-7 at home. With the big victory - the second of the season over the Ravens - the Bengals ensured that they'll retain 1st place in the AFC North regardless of what transpires Monday night. Cedric Benson was a workhorse again, toting it 34 times for 117 yards. The game effectively was over when Ravens kicker Steve Hauschka missed a critical field goal that would have made it a one score game following an amazing strip of Ocho Cinco by Ed Reed late in the 4th quarter. I wouldn't be surprised if the Ravens find themselves a new kicker by season's end if Hauschka doesn't get his act together. If you don't remember, he missed a game winner against the Vikings several weeks ago. You can't put a solid team together on both sides of the ball and then have an unreliable place kicker counterfeit so much of the hard work being put in by the whole team. Baltimore didn't really deserve to win that game, but they put themselves in position to at least have a shot at forcing overtime. Hauschka didn't do his job though. The Ravens aren't on the ropes just yet, but they're in a big hole considering they have two tilts with Pittsburgh still on the schedule. Luckily for them, the Texans weren't able to edge out a victory in Indy and remain very much in the Wild Card hunt for now.

* Not good Green Bay. Two weeks ago they looked to be in good shape, but consecutive losses to Minnesota and now previously winless Tampa Bay and the Packers look to be pretenders. That's one shaky defense. You could tell though watching Tampa Bay that they wanted it more than the Packers. That's sad if you're a Green Bay fan.

* New Orleans and Indianapolis both escape and improve to 8-0. Matt Schaub and the Houston Texans have to be sick to their stomach after usually reliable kicker Kris Brown missed a potential game tying field goal as time expired. Ouch. The Saints meanwhile overcome a double digit deficit for the second consecutive week behind a big second half offensively.

* Not that Vince Young won the game for the Tennessee Titans, but he's been very solid through two starts and I'm sure plenty of fans are wondering why it took 6 straight losses for Jeff Fisher to give up on Kerry Collins. The Titans put up 34 points on a 49ers defense that has been pretty good for most of this year. Quarterbacks don't win or lose games by themselves, but if I'm not mistake, Young improved to 20-11 as a starter in the NFL. He's got plenty of work left to do and he'll need to do a better job keeping his head mentally the next time adversity surely heads his way, but for now, he looks focused and ready to work on getting better. Oh yeah, Alex Smith. I wrote a few weeks ago that I thought it was ridiculous that Mike Singletary gave up on Shaun Hill after struggling for only 6 quarters or so. Alex Smith threw three interceptions on Sunday and fumbled once, and there's little doubt in my mind that he won't make it the whole year before being benched back in favor of Hill.

* How about that San Diego victory? Wow. Just as they've done time and time again the past few years, the Chargers responded with their backs against the wall. With the Giants up by 3 and inside the 5 yard line following a P hillip Rivers turnover, the Chargers got the stand they needed to keep it a one possession game late in the 4th quarter. Then with just about 2 minutes remaining, Rivers atoned for his previous mistakes and led San Diego down the field on the game winning scoring drive to defeat New York by a single point, 21-20. San Diego improved to 5-3 and could find themselves within a single game of Denver by the end of Monday night. That division's going to be real fun to watch down the stretch.

* I still don't think Matthew Stafford should be playing for the Lions with a healthy Daunte Culpepper sitting on the bench. Stafford was pretty much awful again on Sunday in a winnable game against the Seahawks. After getting out of the gates nicely and building a 17-0 lead, Stafford threw 5 interceptions, several of which were just pathetic reads and decisions. That's six picks and zero touchdowns since returning from injury two weeks ago.

* Sheesh, the Arizona Cardinals remain impossible to figure out. Last week they look pathetic in defeat at home against Carolina. This week they smoke the Bears on the road. Kurt Warner throws 5 picks last week; and he follows it up and silences his critics with 5 TDs against the crumbling Bears defense. Strange team in a strange league.

* My keys to winning against Denver a bit later. Can not wait for this one after watching a very dramatic and action packed Week 9 unfold on Sunday. Go Steelers!

Poll

Most impressive win on Sunday?

Comcast Weekly Red Zone Update

Blitzburgh — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 05:15:13 -0000

Because the Steelers didn't play this week, there's nothing to update on their front. So instead, let's take a look at the Denver Broncos season to date performing in the red zone. As always, many thanks to Comcast and their new and critically aclaimed Red Zone Channel for their sponsorship of BTSC and the other many fine SB Nation football blogs this season.

On to Denver's performance. These tables were taken directly from Mile High Report. It was only updated through Week 7, so below the tables, you can find their performance against Baltimore. As you'll see, they've not been all that great on offense in the red zone - having to settle for a high number of field goals. On defense though they've been quite solid, particularly the first four weeks of the season.

'09 OFFENSE TOTALS

WEEK	OPPONENT	RZ EFFICIENCY
1	@ CIN	0/0
2	vs. CLE	2/4
3	@ OAK	2/6
4	vs. DAL	1/2
5	vs. NEP	2/3
6	@ SD	2/4
	TOTALS	9/19 (47.3%)

'09 DEFENSE TOTALS

WEEK	OPPONENT	RZ EFFICIENCY
1	@ CIN	1/2
2	Vs. CLE	0/1
3	@ OAK	0/1
4	Vs. DAL	1/3
5	Vs. NEP	2/2
6	@ SD	1/2
	TOTALS	5/11(45.4%

Last week @ Baltimore (Loss, 7-30)

Offense: 1 Trip, 1 TD

Defense: 3 Trips, 1 FG, 2 TD

Updated NFL Super Bowl Odds

Blitzburgh — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 04:54:16 -0000

As we count down the days and hours until the Pittsburgh Steelers return to action on Monday night against the Denver Broncos, here are some fun updated odds out of Las Vegas.

**Odds To Win 2009 Super Bowl**
Team	Odds
New Orleans Saints	3/1
Indianapolis Colts	5/1
New England Patriots	11/2
Minnesota Vikings	8/1
Pittsburgh Steelers	10/1
Baltimore Ravens	13/1
Philadelphia Eagles	14/1
Dallas Cowboys	18/1
New York Giants	18/1
Denver Broncos	22/1
San Diego Chargers	22/1
Cincinnati Bengals	25/1
Arizona Cardinals	35/1
Chicago Bears	35/1
Green Bay Packers	35/1
Houston Texans	35/1
Atlanta Falcons	40/1
Miami Dolphins	60/1
New York Jets	60/1
San Francisco 49ers	65/1
Carolina Panthers	150/1
Jacksonville Jaguars	200/1
Seattle Seahawks	200/1
Buffalo Bills	400/1
Tennessee Titans	400/1
Washington Redskins	500/1
Oakland Raiders	750/1
Cleveland Browns	1000/1
Detroit Lions	1000/1
Kansas City Chiefs	1000/1
St. Louis Rams	1000/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1000/1

Just a few thoughts from me.

Pittsburgh is actually a pretty solid bet at 10:1 if you ask me. In my mind, there chances are just as good as any team in front of them, besides perhaps Indianapolis.
Yes New Orleans' road might be a bit easier because they're in the NFC, but there's plenty of teams in that conference that are more than capable of taking down New Orleans in a winner-takes-all battle in January. Philadelphia, Minnesota and even Dallas come to mind.
I find it fairly interesting that Vegas - and subsequently the public - feels Baltimore is still legit contenders despite losing three of their past four. I don't disagree necessarily, but I also don't think a home win against a Denver team that's not well equipped to punish the Ravens with the vertical passing game is all that impressive. Let's see how they look when they take on Cincy and Pittsburgh - both of which are teams plenty capable of stretching the field.
Pretty comical that the Bills are getting the same odds as the Titans, despite having two more wins than them.
If I had to place a super long shot bet, I'd probably do so on Carolina - but after they lose this coming weekend at New Orleans. Their odds might then drop to something like 175 or 200 to 1, but they might not be out of it considering how the Giants are reeling, how no team in the NFC West looks formidable at all outside of Arizona, and how they might be able to catch the Falcons, Bears and Packers if they got hot and eeked out 9 or 10 wins and got some help from those inconsistent teams.
Interesting also that Minnesota is favored over Pittsburgh despite their recent head-to-head showdown.

Anyway, just a little fun as Week 9 approaches. More on the Broncos game coming soon.

Denver Broncos vs. Pittsburgh Steelers - Can The Broncos Keep This Up?

Blitzburgh — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 04:01:11 -0000

After taking a closer look at the Denver Broncos 2009 season to date, I'm becoming more and more convinced that this is a fringe playoff team at best, and nowhere near as good as their 6-1 record might indicate. Now, as Coach Dikta famously says - you are what you are. And the Denver Broncos are 6-1. So, I'm not taking any credit away from them for what they've done to start the year. I'm just very, very unconvinced that they're going to be able to sustain this type of success in the win column for the remaining 9 games of the season. Here's a few reasons why.

* First of all, let's look at their results so far.

*********

Week 1 - Win @ Cincinnati (12-7)

Week 2 - Win vs. Cleveland (27-6)

Week 3 - Win @ Oakland (23-3)

Week 4 - Win vs. Dallas (17-10)

Week 5 - Win vs. New England (20-17)

Week 6 - Win @ San Diego (34-23)

Week 7 - Loss @ Baltimore (7-30)

Again, you can only play the opponents on your schedule, and we all know how little style points mean, but there's a number of results in there that make me wonder how tough Denver really is. Let's start with that first game against the Bengals. In case you had forgotten, Denver won on the final play of the game on a fluke, tipped pass that fell in to Brandon Stokeley's lap with no Bengals defenders near him. He took it in for the go-ahead 87 yard score. Prior to that play, the Broncos had mustered roughly 220 yards of total offense. A great start to the Josh McDaniels era, but undeniably a very lucky win. Credit Denver's defense for harassing and confusing Carson Palmer, but let's not forget that it was his first game back in quite some time and he was clearly rusty. Palmer's improved incrementally since then.

In Week 2, the Broncos were solid. Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter rushed for 75 and 76 yards respectively and Kyle Orton found a couple big plays in the passing game to offset his otherwise ho-hum 19-of-37 performance. The anemic Browns offense - led by Brady Quinn that day - could only muster 200 total yards, while turning it over three times. You play who you play, but everybody is beating up on Cleveland this year.

Week 3, the Broncos make look JaMarcus Russell look like the awful quarterback he is, while rushing all over one of the league's absolute worst rush defenses. Bravo.

Week 4 Tony Romo gift wraps a huge turnover that gets Denver a cheap score. Then a Romo interception deep inside Denver territory kept the Broncos hanging around until their offense finally came up with some big plays and drives late in the 4th quarter. Even still, Dallas had a chance to tie it as the clock expired. The Cowboys had it at the Denver 2 after spiking it on 2nd down with time dwindling. Two incompletions - both of them thrown at Champ Bailey - and the game was over. A very nice win for the Broncos - even if it wasn't pretty. It was actually a lot like the Steelers victory over the Cowboys last year.

The Chargers victory came down to pressuring the quarterback better than San Diego and two touchdown returns by Eddie Royal on special teams. Alert to Pittsburgh - this guy's good. Denver's chances go up exponentially if Royal can be a difference maker. He wasn't last week though, so it's quite doable to keep him and check and force the Broncos' offense to do more than they were forced to do against the Chargers.

Anyway, enough looking at their schedule. They've won some games thanks to their offense, some because of stellar defensive play, and one due to outbursts on special teams. What do they truly do great though? Can they piece together random contributions like this moving forward? Perhaps, but the great teams usually have either a top flight quarterback, or some department of their team that's truly outstanding - like the Steelers defense last year. Or the New York Giants excellent running game and pass rushing front four in 2007. Or the Patriots and Colts offenses of much of this decade that have found prolonged success.

But what about Denver's top ranked defense? Some might argue that they're 'legit' contenders because this defense is for real. Well, they sure have been stout thus far. It helps to catch the Bengals before they got on the same page, followed by the Browns and Raiders, not to mention Tom Brady and the Patriots before they started clicking the following three weeks. But the Broncos had a hand in disrupting Palmer and Brady, no doubt.

Here are Denver's defensive ranks so far:

Points per Game: 13.6 (1st)

Total Yards per Game: 266.7 (1st)

3rd Down %: 33% (6th)

Interceptions: 6 (t-15th)

Fumbles Recovered: 6 (t-9th)

All very impressive. But here's what I'd say other than that defensive coordinator Mike Nolan has done a nice job putting these guys in position to succeed - they've been very, very lucky with injuries. On both sides of the ball really, but I think the effect has been particularly pronounced on defense. As far as I can tell, the exact same 11 who started on opening day have started in each and every game for the Broncos. Can their entire secondary, all of whom are 30+ years of age, hold up for an entire 16 games? Can defensive end Kenny Peterson, who has only played more than 10 games in a season twice during his six year career, hold up for the long haul? What about Ryan McBean, the former Steelers draft pick that lacked the strength to make it on our squad? Can he endure the grind of his first, full professional season?

Linebackers Mario Haggan and Andra Davis have never really been that good in this league. Serviceable? Yes, definitely. But not the kind of players they've been so far this year. The scheme matters and it's possible that this particular configuration of players and schematics has them playing at a level they're capable of sustaining. But history shows they've not been this good over the course of their respective veteran careers. The same might be said of D.J. Williams, a mainstay of the Broncos defense since 2004. Denver has had some pretty suspect defenses in that time span, and he's been a part of that. He too has been playing better than he ever has - unless you want to argue that his 2007 season was more impressive, even though the Broncos finished with the 5th worst scoring defense in the league that year. As for Elvis Dumervil, well he just looks like a player. And he has looked that way since coming in to the league out of Louisville in 2006.

I guess to me, the reality is the stars have aligned very nicely so far for Denver. It's just not very common for teams to go an entire season without losing a key player or two. Can Denver overcome that when it most likely comes? Will they have little time to overcome the loss due to that potential injury coming later in the year when there's less time to adjust? Could this Broncos defense be a little bit like the 2007 Steelers defense? Very good statistically for much of the season, only to come crumbling apart later in the year when an injury or two occurs and there's a higher premium placed on violent, physical football? Denver's sound technically on defense, and they have savvy ball hawks and sure tacklers in the secondary, but they ain't that physical a team, particularly up front. My hunch is that will get exposed more and more as the year progresses.

Here's something else that jumped out at me. Take a look at the defensive rankings of the teams they've faced this year. The first ranking is their total yards allowed per game, followed by their DVOA Ranking as measured by Football Outsiders.

Cincinnati (21st; 21st)

Cleveland (32nd; 29th)

Oakland (26th; 25th)

Dallas (22nd; 22nd)

New England (6th; 8th)

San Diego (12th; 23rd)

Baltimore (13th; 9th)

By my count, that's really just two solid defenses that they've faced. Let's all agree that Cleveland and Oakland are a joke. We should all be able to agree that San Diego is really quite suspect on that side of the ball too. Dallas is probably a little better than their current ranking - at least in the last couple of weeks they've improved. And we might also agree that the Bengals are a bit better than their ranking, while New England is not quite as good as the numbers might suggest (playing Tennessee and Tampa Bay the past two games will do that).

Anyway, Denver's offense has failed to really do all that much against the type of defenses they've played. They did have a fairly solid output against the Patriots - 424 yards and a ridiculous 27 first downs - but they nevertheless only manged to get it in the endzone twice. But against San Diego, it was mostly the defense and Eddie Royal's return abilities, not the play of the offense that helped them escape Qualcomm with a huge road win. And it was two inexcusable turnovers Tony Romo - the type he's so, so good at producing - that kept Denver in the Dallas game before their offense found its rhythm and engineered a field goal drive followed by a circus catch by Brandon Marshall that he would take to the house for the improbable, come from behind victory. A win's a win, but the Broncos had only 280 or so yards of offense leading up to the touchdown, and around 220 through almost 3 and 1/2 quarters. And then of course most recently, there was the Baltimore game this past Sunday. Kyle Orton looked horrible under pressure - he had only 152 passing yards on 37 attempts. That's terrible. The running game was bottled up as well and Denver finished the game with an anemic 200 total yards of offense, averaged just 3.4 yards per play, and converted just 3/13 on 3rd down.

Through 8 weeks, Denver's offense is:14th in total yards and 20th in points scored. Kyle Orton is a fine quarterback - gets rid of the ball fairly quickly (though sometimes too quickly for his own good), doesn't turn the ball over much. But he definitely doesn't scare me when thinking about how he might fare against the Pittsburgh Steelers improving defense. And it goes without saying that the Steelers rush defense should be able to bottle up the average run game of the Broncos. That's not to say the duo of Buckhalter and Moreno isn't a solid one - it is, and they've had some individual and collective success this year. But they're viewed unfavorably by FO's rushing the ball (18th), and they've been just average on the ground since carving up the Browns and Raiders for 186 and 215 yards in Weeks 2 and 3. The bottom line is neither are Adrian Peterson, and the Steelers did just fine slowing him down two Sundays ago.

It's just one man's opinion of course, but I think the Steelers will be able to shut down this Denver offense for the second week in a row. It's hard to make the Broncos look much worse than they did on Sunday, but credit Baltimore for playing a big role in that. While the Ravens beat up on Denver, Pittsburgh rested up and began scheming for the Broncos. Sounds like a good recipe for success if you ask me. That said, Denver will surely be eager to atone for last week's embarrassing showing, and can be counted on to put up a spirited fight in front of their rabid home crowd.

But I still think Pittsburgh has too much for the Broncos provided they tackle well in the short passing game, shore up their coverage units on special teams, and limit it to two or fewer turnovers (and in non-costly spots of the field). From there, I think Denver has to win at Washington the following week or they'll be in a potential dogfight for a playoff berth. The trump card of course is San Diego is so mystifyingly inconsistent that who knows if they'll even put pressure on Denver to win 10 games to win the division. The Chargers travel to New York to play a reeling Giants team in a game that's huge for both teams. If San Diego wins, they'll be within a game essentially of the Broncos with their second meeting of the year looming in Week 10. If the Broncos do need to get to 10 or 11 wins to make the playoffs, I don't see them holding up with the schedule they have remaining.

If you add up the success they've had so far in close games (it tends to balance out), combined with how fortunate they've been injury wise, combined with not having a quarterback that can really carry a team on his back when the going gets tough - all of it makes me skeptical of this 2009 Denver Broncos team. I commend them for their fine start, but I don't see them as a legitimate contender this year in the AFC, even if they were to hold on and make the playoffs in year one of the Josh McDaniels era.

Whew. Enough for now. I can't wait for this one. The Steelers first game in 15 days and their first appearance on Monday Night Football.