SB Nation User Blog: Blodgett

A comparison to last year 16 games in.

Blodgett — Thu, 27 Nov 2008 05:58:44 -0000

Pardon me if others have done this, but I'm just so excited! I remember last year feeling a sense of underwhelming dread at 16 games, so I decided to do some basic comparison with last year and see if we really are that much better!

First, Our record (W-L):

07-08: 5-11

08-09: 10-6

As you can see we are definitely winning many more games, but are they quality? What about the quality of opponent? How many are at home/away? Let's look....

Combined records of all opponents by the end of our sixteenth game each season (W-L):

07-08: 143-113 (.559 Win percentage) (All games played by opponents before 11/30/2007)

08-09: 123-117 (.513 Win percentage) (All games played by opponents before 11/25/2008)

From this we can see that we had actually faced slightly higher quality opponents last year at sixteen games. This doesn't tell the whole story though. Last year we had a more relaxed schedule when compared to this year. Last year we played 16 games in 31 days, while this year we played the same amount of games in 29 days. Lets look at some other factors.

Total home/away games after sixteen games:

07-08: 8 home/8 away

08-09: 6 home/10 away

# of back to backs after sixteen games:

07-08: 4

08-09: 5

After looking at these two we can see that we have 2 days less rest, 2 extra games on the road, and one more back-to-back set of games when compared to last year. I think that more than makes up for quality of opponent. So what about how we are winning or losing. We can get some of this info from our point differential.

Point differential after sixteen games:

07-08: -5.3 (Blazer average points 91.3; Opponents 96.6)

08-09: +4.5 (Blazer average points 98.4; Opponents 93.9)

These are some huge differences from this same time last year, and even though it comes against slightly better teams this year, it is still phenomenal. Consider that the improvement of 9.8 points is about the same spread that separates this year's Sacramento Kings team from the Houston Rockets. Or think that out of this year's teams only the Thunder, Clippers, Grizzlies, Wizards, and Kings have a worse point differential than we had last year after sixteen games. Here is even more proof that we are a completely different team from last year:

How we won/lost games last year (First sixteen games only, 07-08):

Games won by 20+ Points: 0

Games won by 10-19 Points: 1

Games won by 1-9 Points: 4

Games lost by 1-9 Points: 7 (4 of these games lost by 9 points exactly)

Games lost by 10-19 Points: 3

Games lost by 20+ Points: 1

So in other words, last year at this time we had never blown a team out, had only one double digit win, and our other four wins were close. We were beat by double digits 3 times, blown out once, and were only closely competitive in three of these losses. Yuck..........now I know why I felt bad last year. Let's compare that with this year:

How we have won/lost games this year (First sixteen games only, 08-09):

Games won by 20+ Points: 3

Games won by 10-19 Points: 0

Games won by 1-9 Points: 7

Games lost by 1-9 Points: 3 (all of them competitive)

Games lost by 10-19 Points: 2

Games lost by 20+ Points: 1

This year we have three blowout wins, unbelievably the same amount we had all last year! Also last year's first blowout win came in our 37th game, Jan 14th against the Nets. We (surprisingly) still don't have any solid double digit wins, but we have been very good in close games, taking 7 out of 10. We have been beaten solidly once less than last year and have been blown out only against the hate L@kers in our first game.

I guess after looking at all the facts I can happily say that I have no qualms feeling good about where we are right now! All the stats seem to show that we are playing much better than last year against comparable opponents, with a worse schedule! Even our defense is better (No, really! Check out points allowed versus last year at the same time, our rebounds, blocks, and steals are all up).

It's wonderful to be a Blazers fan right now!!!

Trade Oden? A comparison with other centers

Blodgett — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 09:28:25 -0000

I think some fans are really freaking out about Greg Odens’ foot injury. The real question to ask yourself is: If you think Greg Oden is made of glass and we never should have drafted him, which center would you like instead of him

To better understand the situation I have made a list of every true center in the league. I then tried to research how many times they have been injured in the past.

There are a few things I should make clear about this list. First, I only chose players who averaged at least fifteen minutes playing time last year, or will presumably average that many this year, since that is the minimum that Oden would play on any team in the league. Second, I put the age of the player right after each players name, since if we compare him to other centers we must take into account that he is only twenty. Third, I did my best to find out what injuries players have had and to specify those, if there are no specifics then that means I couldn’t find them. Fourth, I didn’t count any one game or two game injuries (the flu, bruised pinkie, etc), although if there are no specifics for a player then they may be included in the total. Fifth, there are some players which injury history was impossible for me to find, in that case I wrote unknown. Sixth, if I missed a year it is because they had no significant injuries that year.

Let’s begin!

True Centers

Dwight Howard – C (23) Magic

No injuries in 4 seasons

Yao Ming – C (28) Rockets

2007-08 – 27 games with stress fracture in left foot

2006-07 – 32 games with small fracture on his right anterior medial tibial plateau

2005-06 – 21 games with infection in his left big toe, 4 games with broken bone in left foot

Marcus Camby – C (34) Clippers

2006-07 - 12 games to injuries

2005-06 - 26 games to injuries

2004-05 - 16 games to injuries

2003-04 - 8 games to injuries

2002-03 - 38 to hip surgery, 12 to sprained ankle

2001-02 - 14 games to plantar fascitis, 38 games to hip injury

2000-01 - 12 games to hip contusion, sprained ankle, strained left groin

1999-00 - 17 games to sprain of anterior cruciate ligament, 3 games to tendinitis left knee

1997-98 - 6 games to tendinitis in knees, 5 to strained abdominal muscle

1996-97 - 14 games to lower back strain

Brad Miller – C (32) Kings

2007-08 – 10 games with cut hand

2006-07 – 16 games with torn plantar fascia

2004-05 – 26 games with injuries

2003-04 – 10 games with injuries

2002-03 – 9 games with injuries

2001-02 – 5 games with injuries

2000-01 – 25 games with injuries

1998-00 0 Unknown

Shaquille O'Neal – C (36) Suns

2005-06 - 18 games to sprained right ankle

2004-05 - 3 games to sprained left knee, 3 games to stomach virus

2003-04 - 14 games to strained right calf

2002-03 - 12 games to off-season foot surgery, 3 games to sore left knee

2001-02 - 5 games to sore big toe, 5 games to arthritic big toe

2000-01 - 6 games to sprained right foot arch

1997-98 - 21 games to abdominal strain

1996-97 - 28 games to hyperextended left knee

1995-96 - 22 games to fractured right thumb, 4 games to bruised left quads

Samuel Dalembert – C (27) 76ers

2005-06 – 13 games to right quad strain, 3 games to left ankle sprain

2004-05 – 3 games to left hip strain

2003-04 – unknown

2002-03 – 82 games with arthroscopic knee surgery

2001-02 – 16 games to left knee tendinitis, 12 games left knee bursitis

Zydrunas Ilgauskas – C (33) Cavaliers

2007-08 – 7 games to back strain

2006-07 – 3 games to left ankle sprain

2004-05 – 4 games to dislocated finger

2001-02 – 17 games to rehabbing foot

2000-01 – 58 games with foot surgery

1999-00 – 82 games with foot problems

1998-99 – 77 games with foot problems

1995-97 – missed two seasons (164 games) with foot injuries

Mehmet Okur – C (29) Jazz

2007-08 – 12 games with sore Achilles, lower back problems, sprained shoulder

2003-04 – 5 games with back spasms, 6 games with lower back strain

Andrew Bynum – C (21) L@kers

2007-08 – 47 games with knee problems and arthroscopic surgery

Chris Kaman – C (26) Clippers

2007-08 – 26 games with various injuries

2004-05 – 11 games with left ankle sprain

Andrew Bogut – C (24) Bucks

2006-07 – 16 games with left midfoot sprain

Tyson Chandler – C (26) Hornets

2006-07 – 7 games with sore left toe

2003-04 – 43 games with lower back pain

2002-03 – 6 games with esophagitis

2001-02 – 4 games hyperextended pinkie

Marc Gasol – C (23) Grizzlies

No injuries – Rookie

Kendrick Perkins – C (24) Celtics

2007-08 – 4 total games to injuries

2006-07 – 10 total games to injuries

2005-06 – 14 total games to injuries

2003-05 – Unknown

Erick Dampier – C (33) Mavericks

2007-08 – 10 games with injuries

2006-07 – 6 games with injuries

2004-05 – 21 games with stress fracture-right foot

2003-04 – 8 games with sprained left ankle

2001-02 – 9 games with injury

2000-01 – 38 games with left knee injury

1999-00 – 30 games with left knee injury

Andrea Bargnani – C (23) Raptors

2007-08 – 4 games to injury

2006-07 – 17 games to injury

Brendan Haywood – C (29) Wizards *

2008-09 – Would play 15+ minutes if he wasn’t out for 4-6 months with wrist injury

2005-06 – 3 games with back pain

2004-05 – 12 games with injuries

Eddy Curry – C (26) Knicks

2007-08 – 23 games to knee surgery

2005-06 – 10 games to injuries

2004-05 – 3 games to strained left hamstring, 13 games to irregular heartbeat

2003-04 – 7 games to left knee bone bruise

2001-03 – Unknown

Rasho Nestoveric – C (32) Pacers

2007-08 – 6 games with sprained ankle

2004-05 – 12 games with sprained ankle

2002-03 – 5 games with sprained ankle

Brook Lopez – C (20) Nets

Rookie – None

Ben Wallace – C (34) Cavaliers

2007-08 – 5 games with back spasms

Otherwise extremely hardy

Theo Ratliff – C (35) 76ers

So many injuries it’s hard to count! Problems with hips, ankles, and knees. Has missed more than 350 games due to injury.

Marreese Speights – C (21) 76ers

Rookie – None

Nazr Mohammed – C (31) Bobcats

2002-2003 – 47 games with foot fractures and eventual foot surgery

1999-2000 – 22 games with back spasms

Mark Blount – C (33) Heat

Only missed 15 games with injuries in his whole career

Desagana Diop – C (26) Mavericks

2004-05 – 5 games with sprained finger, 5 games with right ankle sprain

2003-04 – 16 games with torn meniscus

Josh Boone – C (24) Nets

2006-07 – Unknown

2007-08 – 12 games, knee and ankle problems

Fabricio Oberto – C (33) Spurs

Never missed a game with injury – 3 seasons

Zaza Pachulia – C (24) Hawks

2007-08 – 20 games with knee injuries

2006-07 – 9 games with various injuries

Tony Battie – C (32) Magic

2007-08 – 82 games with torn rotator cuff

2006-07 – 16 games with various injuries

2003-04 – 6 games with bruised left knee

2001-02 – 6 games with a lower right leg edema

2000-01 – 41 games with sprained ankle

Johan Petro – C (22) Thunder

No injuries in 2 years

Etan Thomas – C (30) Wizards

2007-08 – 82 games with heart surgery

2006-07 – 17 games with injuries

2005-06 – 6 games with injuries

2004-05 – 32 games with abdominal strain

2002-03 – 28 games with fractured orbital bone and a bruised left eye socket

2000-01 – 82 games with toe injury

And Finally

Greg Oden – C (20) Blazers

2008-09 – 2 to 4 weeks with midfoot sprain

2007-08 – 82 games with microfracture

And a broken arm in college that didn’t stop him from playing.

To Conclude

Looking through this list of centers we can see that there is a good reason to take promising centers early in the draft; there just aren’t very many good true centers.

If another GM offered us a trade, Oden for their center straight up, we would only take it in the case of one. I think KP would gladly accept Oden for Dwight Howard straight up. But beside him? Yao Ming is great but is 8 years older and has broken the same foot three times. Anyone over thirty is out of the question. The only one with as much promise is Andrew Bynum, and he had a serious surgery too.

Us Portland fans just need to relax and realize that we are lucky to have such a great center in Oden, and a great backup in Pryzbilla. Compared to what most of the league is starting we have two superior players!

What center would you trade Oden for, straight up? Why?