Hey guys and gals, I have been working on this project for a couple of weeks for Regression Analysis here for my stats major and thought you would like to take a look at it (hopefully to not tear it to shreds!). We were tasked to find and use a data set that had at least 5 predictors, one qualitative predictor. So, I decided that if I was going to spend my time to do this anyway, my as well make it something somewhat interesting and so I picked 18 predictors of "normal" stats in hopes of predicting wins.

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Well as we move into the off season and as other teams finish out their seasons and the playoffs I thought it would be a fun exercise to predict the 25 man roster for opening day in 2012.

So here it goes:

With Tracy as manager we know (as shown with the 2010 opening day roster without Fowler) that even opening day is not immune to MATCHUPZ, though opening day "starters" will score for more than the bench players.

So scoring looks like this:

1 Point for each correct person on the 25 man roster. (Up to 25 points)

1 Point for a "starter." This includes the 8 position players that start on opening day as well as the opening day starter, along with the closer. Middle relievers and set up men do not count as starters, as too fluid and often not announced. For outfield, you can specify LF/RF/CF but they will be counted as 3 OF spots, as it is not fair to penalize someone for putting Cargo in left and him starting the season in right. (Up to 10 points)

1 extra point for correctly predicting a person that is currently not in the Rockies system or is not under team control for next year. This includes (corrections are appreciated if I make a mistake): Kevin Millwood, Mark Ellis, JC Romero and Aaron Cook.

Without  further to do, my picks:

C: Chris Iannetta
1B: Todd Helton
2B: Mark Ellis
SS: Troy Tulowitzki
3B: Ian Stewart
OF: Carlos Gonzalez
CF: Dexter Fowler
OF: Josh Willingham
BE: Jason Giambi
BE: Jordan Pacheco
BE: Jonathan Herrera
BE: Wilin Rosario
BE: Seth Smith

Opening Day SP: Mark Buehrle
P: Jason Hammel
P: Jhoulys Chacin
P: Drew Pomeranz
P: Alex White
P: Edgmer Escalona
P: Matt Reynolds
P: Esmil Rogers
P: Matt Belisle
P: Matt Lindstrom
P: Rex Brothers
CL: Rafael Betancourt

Hardest choice for me was leaving Blackmon off of the opening day roster, but will probably be back in the minors to get back into baseball. Also I believe Wandy will not be moved so he will probably be the opening day guy in Houston, so the FA RH OF will get the start. In general I don't think there will be much change this off season. I think there is an uneasiness in the FO that they need to spend money this off season to show that they are committed to winning. Getting someone like Buehrle would be huge as it wouldn't cost a ton, but the name recognition would be large. I do think the Rockies will inquire heavily on someone as high as Reyes, with the plan to move him to second or third, but I doubt Reyes would want that and along with the ridiculous money he'll get, there is no way we sign him. I think they do spend money but sit around the same payroll, and wait to see how 2012 goes and then go after the wealth of talent that is in the 2013 FA class.

Deadline will be the last day of the playoffs, you may edit your posts up until that point.

What do you think?

My Junior year of high school baseball saw a multitude of catchers behind the plate for my starts. There were definitely catchers I was more comfortable with while I was pitching. In the major leagues this seems to be a lot less of a problem as to be anywhere near the majors, a catcher needs to be at least good defensively. That, along with the hours that the pitchers spend with the catchers in film studies and bullpens they can create a chemistry that results in relaxation on the mound. However, for the last few year I have watched Huston Street and in my opinion he has not looked comfortable with many of the other catchers besides Iannetta. Whether that is because of their calling of his game, or how they receive the ball Huston looks much more strained while out there.

Let's take last night with Morales as an example. To the first two batters saw almost the exact pitch 10 times in 12 pitches.

Miranda - 5 outside FB, Change, FB (K)
Parra - Outside FB, Change, FB, FB (HR)

I know Street loves to get ahead and pound the zone with his running fastball (sinker), especially outside to lefties. However, after Parra fouled two fastballs, why give him it again on 1-2? Street didn't make a great pitch, but I wouldn't say it was center-cut. Obviously the pitch to Young doesn't have an excuse.

This got me to thinking how much a catcher means to a guy on the mound. I went back and looked at streets’ saves, blown saves and losses since he became a Rockie. Here is what I found (feel free to check my work, clicking on like 80 box scores has a high chance of error)

With ____ catching ninth inning (2009- May 5th, 2011)

Iannetta- 33 saves – 1 Blown save
Morales – 1 save – 1 Blown save
Olivo – 16 Saves – 4 Blown saves
Torrealba- 9 saves – 2 Blown Saves

In percentages:

Iannetta – 97.06%
Morales – 50%
Olivo- 80%
Torrealba – 81.8%

People may argue that this is a small sample size, but when you are dealing a catcher and a pitcher over 3 years, I feel like you can draw appropriate conclusions. I would never draw a conclusion on Morales' ability to catch Street based on last night but I believe the numbers show that Iannetta is doing something right with Street.

However, even if we are able to draw the conclusion that Street performs better with Iannetta, it is not going to be at a point where it would make sense to burn Iannetta as a defensive replacement in the ninth.

Again feel free to check my work but those numbers are pretty significant. What do you guys think?

My friend and I were having an argument about a pickoff rule. And I thought this community could provide me with an answer. When there is a runner on third and you pickoff to third you must throw the ball. Correct? If that is true why is it legal to do a third to first pickoff without throwing the ball if while you are on the rubber you are doing the same thing?

Also what is your favorite "rule" to exploit in baseball? With all the talk about Larussa using the rules to his advantage with streets number of pitches etc, what is a rule that is taken advantage of or should be?