Various sources like Hockeybuzz Metzer and Strickland and hockey insider types on twitter are saying the Pens will sign Jay McKee to a 1 year $800,000 contract tonight or tomorrow.

I am a BIG Pens fan (as well as Blues of course) and I am thrilled. I know a lot of people jumped on Jay for what he did at a $4mil cap hit. But Jay fills a HUGE void left by Scuderi and Gill leaving via FA. The Pens put a high valu eon shot blocking and Jay is one of the best.

He isn't getting younger and he has a legit shot for a Cup next year. Congrats Jay. Your a good guy and a decent hockey player, go win something with the Pens.

Hey all, been in NYC all week and fairly disjointed from the Blues world. Passing along some work of a blogger/Blues Fan, Mark Massa, from over at our blog, The Bluenote Zone. Some of you may know him from other sites as STL fan in IA.

Thanks for reading, Link Here.

Polak Situation Overblown

There seems to be a lot of worry about the Blues possibly losing Roman Polak to an offer sheet. Personally, I’m not all that worried about it. While he had a good rookie season, I would be willing to bet most teams have bigger priorities this time of year than signing a young player with one NHL goal to his name to an offer sheet. No disrespect to Polak but I’m getting the impression he and his agent are overvaluing him. Even though the Blues were a victim of an offer sheet last summer, the practice is still pretty rare so I’d be surprised if he got one. The Blues showed last summer that they’re willing to retaliate so that should help deter teams from signing Blues RFAs to offer sheets.

Another point worth mentioning is that Polak doesn’t even have arbitration rights. If he’s not signed to an offer sheet, he has virtually no leverage in contract negotiations with the Blues. The Blues could easily not offer him anything more than his qualifying offer, a low $522,500, and Polak would be left with either accepting that or holding out. In the end though, I would expect the Blues and Polak’s camp to come to an agreement on a deal higher than his qualifying offer but a good chunk lower than he’s probably asking for. Same with Crombeen. After the UFA season settles down a bit and assuming neither Polak or Crombeen get an offer sheet, they’ll likely sign reasonable deals to return to the Blues. Crombeen does have arbitration rights though so at least he has some leverage Polak doesn’t have.

Other Quick Thoughts

There’s been a lot of speculation about Ian Cole possibly changing his mind and turning pro this season. While it’s possible, I wouldn’t get too excited just yet. Let’s just see how he performs in Orientation Camp next week. He seems to only want to turn pro if he has a realistic shot at the NHL but with so many other defensemen that he would be competing with, I wonder just what his chances would be. The problem is that he will have to make his decision on turning pro or not before he has a chance to make the team. He can’t participate in Training Camp without forfeiting his NCAA eligibility.

Word is Jean-Philippe Lamoureux will be attending Buffalo’s Prospects Camp next week. Does that represent the end of JPL’s time in the Blues organization? I sure hope not. He was an absolute rock with the ECHL Alaska Aces last season but with him deserving of an AHL shot and Bishop and Holt in front of him occupying those AHL spots in the Blues organization, JPL could very well find a shot with another team.

As Reported on Hockeybuzz today…

Eklund advises the hockey world that the Blues want to have a deal done to get Heatley to St. Louis by Wednesday, two days before the draft.

I think we need a few grains of salt, a lemon wedge, and some good tequila to analyze that one.

AS we talked about here and many other sites have discussed, Heatley to St. Louis is very hard to imagine. While the Blues have the desire for a top flight player, can they truly afford him with out giving up Brad Boyes (which defeats teh purpose of getting Heatley) and if they can, which young stars do we lose?

Perron? Berglund? Oshie? Pietrangelo? Eller? Backes?

Who is traded now and/or later? Who cannot be re-signed?

It’s a this point I really hope that the front office politely says “no”.  No to thinning out our NHL level depth. No to moving out a young core member. No to tying up roughly 12-15% of the Blues cap hits in one player.

I know teams want to get that name power. You want that guy to drum up media support, to sell tickets, to sell jerseys. At the same time, this isn’t your dad’s NHL anymore. This is not so much a veterans game. This league is dominated by 3 players who have all gained the right to buy alcohol in the last 12 months. It is a young-man’s game now.

This is where the Blues can differ from other teams. Push away the old status quo and really stck with their kids. Will it be hard to keep your home grown talent when you could haeve offer sheets and high priced offers. However, at the same time the Blues have to believe that they can develop their rebuilt core and keep them around. With the cap going down  (for at least the next two years it looks like), you need to be able to control your contracts. The Blues will get great control over their group.

The young core of this team is as follows (argueably):
TJ Oshie
Patrik Berglund
Erik Johnson
David Perron
David Backes
Brad Boyes
Alex Pietrangelo
Jay McClement
Roman Polak

All of these players are under contract for at least 2 more years or will be RFA’s in that time period.

The current roster situation gives you a large amount of control over how much your core makes, allowing you to spend elsewhere. However, that control doesn’t mean you add a $7.5mil cap hit.

THe Blues have a chance to say “we have our core, we arent moving them and in the long term interest of this organization, we are going to retain these players”. How many teams will be able to do this? Not many. Edmonton  might. Phoenix has no money to begin with. Chicago has spent a ton (Campbell) and are going to have MAJOR cap issues retaining Kane, Toews, and Versteeg down the road.

By saying no, the Blues have the chance to do what few teams can do, kep their most important long term peices while they are still contributing now. Heatley all but kills that chance. The time is not now. The Blues got in to the Playoffs minus a top 3 forward and a top pairing Dman, lets see what Kariya and EJ give us first. Save the money now to dabble at the deadline if you want to add a body.

Myself and a couple other Blues fans have been working on a fan based blog (partly inspired by GT) and one of our guys put up a ton of info on who the players are. I know there are projections and trends and all that stuff out there...but this is more of what a fan needs to know about the players we're possibly taking.

St. Louis Blues 2009 NHL Draft Preview & Player Information

Please take a couple minutes to check it out. Thanks.

All the talk of Keith Tkachuk Re-Signing soon should spur some additional thought in the minds of Blues fans.

Assuming Tkachuk is back for at least the 09-10 Season, the Blues have the following forwards under contract:
McDonald - Backes - Boyes
Perron - Berglund - Oshie
Kariya - Tkachuk - Steen
Stastny - McClement - ?
King/Janssen

The question mark is that extra 3rd/4th line "grinder". That guy who plays most of the season checking hard, seeing a little special teams play, a role player. Who could fill that role?

The likeliest answer is an internal source. Someone already in the system or a player on last year’s roster who is now a Free Agent. The Blues have BJ Crombeen, Brad Winchester, DJ King, Chris Porter, and Cam Paddock. I am sure I'm missing someone, but those are who come to mind as NHL level fillers who have done this role before.

Before getting too much in to this (and I know the title has told you where I am going), we need a few more assumptions.
1. Blues Re-Sign BJ Crombeen since he is a RFA. Lets just assume 3 years at $900k, $1.0 mil, $1.25mil, totaling $3.15mil which would be a $1.05mil cap hit.
2. The Blues liked the success they had using a larger, more physical line up.
3. Stastny, King, and Janssen are all "up" after the 09-10 season and would be potential targets to lose their roster spot to maintain team size.

You can be pretty sure that King isn’t a target. He has size, can play, fight, and is a RFA after 09-10. Leaving the Blues with Janssen vs. Stastny. Janssen has a clear role to be a fighter and isn’t needed in that many games. Janssen is also a RFA after 09-10, so if the Blues want to keep him, he is a cheaper buy than Stastny (in theory).

Now we are at Winchester vs. Stastny and our question is:
Does the size and production of Winchester equal more of a benefit than Stastny already being under a smaller contract?

Lets take a look at where both players stand in terms of being an asset to the team.

Winchester
Big body to work the boards, corners, and get to the net.
Posses a pretty quick shot.
Willing to hit and take a hit.
Offensive production from the "bottom 6".
Can play on the power play.
Has Playoff experience.

Stastny:
Small, quick skater.
Can play the PK effectively.
Has speed to fore-check.
Could play Center or Wing.
Responsible defensively.

Factors Against Each Player:
Winchester - Tkachuk and Crombeen Re-Signed. AHL depth under contract (Porter, Paddock, etc). UFA and could get bigger contract offers from other teams. Kariya added to power play likely pushes Winchester in to less power play time, therefore reducing his production. Giving a "grinder' a raise and paying him more than someone else who could potentially do the same job for less.

Stastny - Blues have multiple effective penalty killing forwards in McClement, Steen, Oshie, Backes, and Crombeen. Patrik Berglund could also be thrown in to the mix next year. Must pass through waivers go to Peoria. Small size with limited offensive upside.

The wild card is the contract. Stastny is signed, done deal. Winchester would require the Blues to add him, at a higher rate than Stastny, and then move Stastny or Janssen off the roster.  At this point, this is where you "gamble" (I use that term loosely because losing Yan wouldn't destroy the organization) and bring back Winchester at more money and find a way to move down or out Stastny.

There seems to be little doubt that Murray found the right buttons to push Winchester to the next level, to become a better player. Winchester has the size the Blues need to maintain till the team is better equiped to play the "Red Wing style" of quick transition and possession. You cannot win if you don't score and scoring depth is a need in the new NHL. Winchester proving 12-15 or so goals from the bottom 6 is a huge bonus to the team. Certainly those extra goals and physical presence are worth an extra $500,000.

Now this could all be a moot point, Winchester could pass on the Blues offer and go elsewhere. However I think the Blues want his size back and Winchester wants to come back. I think this might be one of the few instances where you reward the "grinder" and give him the raise. Yes, his roster spot can be filled for cheaper, but what he brings back is worth the investment.

Let's take a short trip back in time to June 9th, 2009. Various Websites and Hockeybuzz.com Blogger Peter Tessier, break news of Dany Heatley asking to be traded out of Ottawa. While Ottawa brass has said that Heatley wouldn't be moved around the deadline, it appears now Dany wants out no matter what the Front Office wants.

Enter the St. Louis Blues. Where the front office has said they would like to pursue a scoring winger. Who has also said they see the time drawing near to add players now and trade some of the prospect pool.

Initially fans are for it, some are against it. I was for it, till I was able to give it more thought. I came to this conclusion while watching my second favorite team play, the Pittsburgh Penguins. My conclusion was that the Blues trading for Heatley amounted to the same as the Penguins trying to re-sign Marian Hossa last summer. At the time, Pens fans were upset with their rental hero not returning. Likely rightfully so. However, not signing Hossa has given the Pens more wiggle room in the check book to secure depth for the short and near terms.

How do Heatley and Hossa compare?
Both have over 100 point total seasons.
Both are big bodied forwards who can score 40+ goals in an season.
Both have deep playoff run experience, not much, but some.
Both are game changers, able to take a game over and lead a team to a win.
Both wanted or make over $7 million a year in Salary and are over $7mil in cap hits.

Why are the Blues like the Pens?
Both have a talented young core of players who will need to be re-signed soon.
Both have some financial issues. Blues in terms of money coming in and the Pens in terms of cap space.
Both teams have built through the draft and acted accordingly to develop players internally.

Here is a brief list of the moves that may not have been possible (now or later)  if the Pens kept Hossa.
Re-signing Brook Orpik
Signing Jordan Staal to his first big contract
Trading for Bill Guerin
Re-signing Guerin, Fedotenko, and Scuderi, Goligoski
Re-signing Kris Letang or Sergi Gonchar
Signing Luca Caputi or Eric Tangradi to their first big contracts.

Most of those players played major parts of the 2009 Cup Run and the two that didnt, will factor in in to longer term offensive winger depth. In short the Penguins forking $7mil + to Hossa loses them their shut down center who can score 25-30 goals, a veteran forward to help Sid and several key depth players.

What do the Blues have to lose to get Heatley?
2009 1st Rd. Pick
NHL level player
NHL ready prospect
- Something along those lines get him here. What about after that?
 Choosing between EJ and Colaiacovo in the 2010 off season.
David Perron potentially in a trade.
Ability to re-sign David Backes / Brad Boyes
Reduced money to offer core players like Oshie and Berglund
Reduced funds to add UFA/traded for player additions in later seasons

Is the cost in assets worth the gain in this case? Is adding a potential 100 point winger worth losing 3 young players now (prospect, NHL level player and the 1st rd pick) plus making it harder to re-sign needed depth players. Given the Blues current level of financial stability, it won't work. There are too many questions about money coming in to the team during economic downturn. With the cap likely shrinking, teams must have young players they can count on to offer cheap production. Adding Heately right now hampers that effort.

I am not saying the Blues will win the Cup because they didn't get Heatley because of the Pens situation. I am stating that the Pens made the better long term decision and still found short term filler. The Blues need to remain focused on the long term as the short term is starting to take care of itsself with the players we have. Could the Blues add to the mix, to help the short term. Sure, there are many capable players out there who can improve the blue line, provide scoring depth up front, and be a solid back up. Its up to the Pro Scouting Department to evaluate who is out there along with JD, Al, and Dave to figure out who will fit in a the right price. So far the Front Office has done a good job, I don't think there is a reason to not trust them yet.

So take a chapter from Ray Shero, JD and Larry. Entertain the thought, but secure who you already have first. Once that is done, then go looking for the key piece who can be around a while.

Andy Strickland reported this on Hockeybuzz earlier last week, however Jeremy Rutherford at the St. Louis Post Dispatch let fans know that the Blues made it official today. The Blues announced that Center Jay McClement has agreed to a 3 year deal worth more than $4 million dollars.

Per Strickland and Rutherford the deal breaks down this way:
2009-10: $1.4 million
2010-11: $1.45 million
2011-12: $1.5 million

Jeremy Rutherford quoted John Davidson on McClement:
I think he’s still improving. No. 1, he really has a defined role that he embraced last season. That was, he was the lead guy on the penalty kill, he was the lead guy on matchups, regarding the other team’s top lines. He’s maturing as a player in understanding what his strengths are, yet there's still upside."

High praise from one of the better guys in the NHL.

Is this a good signing? Yes it is. Why?

McClement produced 26 points while being the top forward on a Top 10 PK unit as well as being the primary Center to match up against the likes of Thronton, Datsyuk, Nash, etc. He finished a -10, which isn't bad considering how little offense his line is expected to produce. McClement was the top face-off man for the Blues at 52.1%. I am not counting McDonald's 58% due to the amount of face-offs he had compared to Jay. McClement was second on the Blues with 44 takeaways (Backes had 45). His 57 blocks were the most of any Blues Forward. McClement was the ONLY forward on the Blues to play more than 2:45min a night on the PK. SH TOI/G 3:50. Who was next? Yan Stastny at 2:34.

So Jay put up solid numbers and played a sound defensive game. Couldn't someone do this without being paid over $1mil per?

Would comparable players like Radek Bonk take $1.5mil? Would Lehtinen, Grier, Pahlsson, Madden? Sure you might be able to get Reasoner, Zigomanis, Kopecky, Yelle, Peca for the same or less. However they did not excel in the Blues system, McClement did. While that list is comprised of mainly vets, they would still have to come in to a new environment. Why not keep you have drafted and developed?

So if you don't go outside, why not stay inside. Could Stastny, Whitfield, or Paddock replace McClement?

In 37 Games Stastny had 9 takeaways, an average of (rounding) 0.3 a game. McClement per game rate was at 0.54. Stastny took 102 face-offs with a 45.1% winning %. Stastny had 18 blocks in 34 games for a .53 per game pace. McClement per game was at .70 per game pace. As far as offensive play, you aren't paying either player to be offensive minded, so this shouldn't be a major consideration. You are paying them both to back check, play the PK and shut down the other line, establish a forecheck and get pressure on the D. Scoring is like #5 on that list. 3 SHG for McClement in 08-09 (and many more opportunities)...how many for Yan? Just one.

Whitfield? If he was that good and deserving of the promotion, why did he not come up over Porter, Winchester, Regier, or Paddock earlier this year? They all have similar time in the AHL and play similar roles. Whitefield didn't look like a fish out of water in his 3 NHL games this year, but he didn't look much better than Stastny either. Paddock was given 16 games with the big club, not that he was bad, he just didn't play as well as who we already had in McClement, Stastny, and Hinote.

I know there are fans out there still upset that the 2nd Round pick didn't turn in to more of an offensive player. I know he is just a grinder. But you cannot refute that Jay found his role last year and played it well. The in house options aren't as good and the guys on the outside will cost more than Jay. McClement was the best option to fill the shut down Center role. Why did Ryan Jonhson not get this contract? Age and lack of offensive upside. You can say Jay is streaky and not offensively gifted, but he has produced as much in one year as a "checking center" than RJ did from 05 to 07 (2 seasons) and played the same defensive game. Not keeping RJ likely turned Jay in to what he is now, which is fine with me.

As always JR at the St. Louis Post Dispatch had a good Thursday afternoon Hockey Chat a couple weeks ago. Several fans questioned Eric Brewer and his potential return to the Blues line up for the 09-10 season.

With the Blues Playoff push and appearance to cap off the 08-09 Season, expectations are sure to ramp up for the 09-10 campaign. There are obvious and serious questions surrounding the Blues blue line patrol. The 08-09 group was one of the least effective in terms offensive production in the league, not just of the 16 playoff teams. With so much of the NHL game revolving around mobility, transition, and the 5 man offense, can expectations realistically raise when there are issues with the defensemen?

Eric Brewer and his $4mil plus contract factor deeply in to this situation. With the return of Erik Johnson and the potential ascension of Alex Pietrangelo to the big show, the offensive effectiveness looks to turn around. However, at the same time how much can the Blues count on one kid returning from a major knee injury and another kid just really getting his feet wet? Without the addition of Johnson, Pietrangelo, and Brewer, the Blues defensemen figure to be lack luster in terms of offensive production.

Is Eric Brewer the "x-factor"?  Is he the cog that will make this wheel turn? Will he return from a very serious and potentially career threatening back injury and be as good or better than before?

For the Blues, who are still financially unsettled, the simple answer is "yes, he has to"...but why?

1. Money
While fans (this one included) would love to dabble in the Bouwmeester sweepstakes, that is just not a good business move at this point. It really pains me to say this, being on the Bouwmeester bandwagon for a quite a while. However, the Blues do not have the money...right now...to play the FA game. They gambled with Kariya which has worked, but no where to the degree hoped for. Right now the Blues just cannot afford the gamble.

Could the Blues make the play for the second tier type? Someone like Bergeron, Siedenberg, Leopold, Oduya, or Komisarek? There is that possibility, except that to make it feasible the Blues likely have to move out  Jay McKee's $4mil contract. Not the easiest task when another team could get the afore mentioned Free Agents for likely less than McKee's $4mil tag.

2. Lack of Replacement
The Blues blue line depth, or lack there of, was exposed. The loss of Johnson and Brewer, the lack of development of Steve Wagner, and the inability of 4th Overall pick Alex Pietrangelo to stick to the NHL roster opened up this glaring hole. A hole filled in by "fillers" like Mike Weaver, Tyson Strachan, Jeff Woywitka, and Wagner. Those four combined to produce 31 points (3 goals) in 175 games, which is roughly a 15 (14.5) point pace per 82 games. Not exactly what you would expect from a playoff team. I will give Woywitka some credit, he had 18 of the 31 points.

What do all the numbers mean? It means that beyond Colaiacovo and to a lesser extent Polak, there was little offensive production from the blue liners. While Brewer might have only been good for 5 or so goals and 25ish points, that's still an improvement over the numbers put up by the likes of Weaver.

3. Who He Replaced
Yes, Eric Brewer was the principal return in the Pronger to Oilers trade. As many times as that horse has been beat (rest his soul), he is still holding some water. No matter how many fans say "it doesn't matter", it still does. Brewer is replacing a lot of production and a big name. Could Blues fan really expect Brewer to play anything close to the Hall of Fame level Pronger has? Not while being fair. However, Brewer has to be expected to contribute. Like it or not, he has been the #1 blue line patroller since the trade and the Blues need him to be as close to that level as possible.

I am pulling for Brewer. I hope his back is as close to 100% as possible and he can be a capable top 4 defensemen. For that matter, the Blues are pulling for him too. They really don't have a choice.

The story is known around the league. A team left for dead at the halfway point by bloggers, journalists, and insiders alike. A team depleted by injuries mid way through their rebuild. Fans are talking Tavares vs. Hedman and if the Western Conference cellar dwellers will play as bad as the East to get a shot at the Canadian Sniper or the Swedish Pronger.

Enter the Manny Legace Meltdown, Chris Mason ascension, and the Monday Matinee Miracle in Beantown. Some how, some way this Blues teams finds a way to climb from 15th to 6th place. So when an inexperienced Blues team beats Colorado to draw the Vancouver Canucks in Round 1, the bloggers, journalists, and insiders alike write off the Blues. Blues fans know better. This team wasn't just happy to eek in, they were hungry and eager to keep moving on.

The Blues were the ultimate "Rudy" team. The Blues were hardworking, students of the game, and every player willing to step up his game to help his teammates. Could the feel good story of the year who did everything right in the second half beat the Montreal Monster and the Twins? Blues fans were confident they would get close and see what fate held.

What happened between April 15th and April 21st was not expected.

Now to be fair, these were not blowouts. Even the 3-0 game was not out of hand. These games were all close checking, hard hitting, down to the wire games. This might be the "closest" sweep of a series in the NHL in a very long time. I agree with Peter Tessier when he says that the Cancucks looked dominate in only about four periods in the series. From Game 2 on, the play was pretty balanced.

The series ultimately boiled down to missed opportunities and hot goalies.

To end the regular season the Blues finished with 8th Ranked power play (20.5%) and the 3rd Ranked penalty kill (83.8%).  This was the Blues secret weapon, their kryptonite that would beat back the Canucks superior even strength play. If the Blues were to have a real shot at taking Vancouver over seven games, the special teams had to be in top form. In the four games the Blues power play clicked at a 4.2% clip and the penalty kill played at a 77.8% kill rate. With both sets of special teams units far from special and were no secret weapon. Perhaps the largest miss opportunity was the power play converting once out of 24 attempts. For the sake of argument let's convert the Blues Playoff power play chances at their regular season rate. The Blues had 24 chances at a 20.5% clip, which would have turned in to 4.92 additional goals (rounded to 5). How much of a difference would have 5 goals made? A lot since the series differential was 5 for to 11 against (or a minus 6 for the Blues).

From novice casual fans to the face painting diehards, we all know that the goalie is a teams best penalty killer. The missed opportunities above ended up as missed opportunities because of the play of Roberto Luongo. As frustrating as it was to watch, Luongo really did play very well in every game. In games 3 and 4 he seemed beatable, but came up with the big saves when needed.

On the other end of the ice was Chris Mason. Cast out from Nashville in the offseason, Mason was brought in to challenge Manny Legace and give the Blues a capable back up.  The Meltdown that was Manny Legace is well documented, what came out of said breakdown was Mason's amazing effort that carried in to the Playoffs. Mason was as good as could be expected. He made big save after big save that was required of him. There was the occasional "softy" let in, however how much of an impact would those "softies" had if the power play was better than 4%?

For those who ate statistically inclined, here is a break down of each game in the series. Combining Mason’s and Luongo's stats.
Game | Total SOG | Total Saves | Combined Save %
1 - 57 - 54 - .947
2 - 56 - 54 - .964
3 - 52 - 47 - .904
4 - 85 - 80 - .941
TOTAL: 250 - 235 - .940
* SOG Differential - 131 (Blues) to 121 (Canucks) -  +10 Blues for series, 2.5 SOG a game.

The two goalies combined to stop 94% of all shots in the series. With the shot differential less than 3 shots a game, it shows how even this series really was. Save for the execution of the Canucks compared to the execution of the Blues.

The Canucks are moving on, resting till Round 2. The Blues are moving on to front office meetings on pro scouting, draft scouting, and making player personnel decisions. While some fans see this four game sweep as a negative, I would disagree. This series (and the second half run) provided invaluable experience for Backes, Boyes, Oshie, Perron, Berlgund, McClement, Polak and others that will make up the core of this team long-term.

Thank you St. Louis Blues for an amazing season. Take your beatings, move on and get better.