The Baseball Daily Digest team preview I wrote was posted today:

 

http://www.baseballdailydigest.com/2010/03/14/bdd-10-team-previews-chicago-white-sox/

 

Certainly nothing new for the great Sox fanatics here, but I hope you enjoy it.  I know I don't post much here, but I read.  :>

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I know nobody cares about anyone else's fantasy teams, but I've played in a lot of leagues over the years, and the 11-team BCB Fantasy Baseball IV league is probably the most competitive I've seen, with 6 teams over 70, and the leader at just 77.5. (http://games.espn.go.com/flb/leagueoffice?leagueId=18445)

 

Sure, I'm posting to gloat somewhat, as I was mired in the lower-middle rankings for most of the season, and am now in the lead.  But while I have no intention of relinquishing the lead, I also realize that one bad day could see me back in 6th place - and that makes for a great race!  And of the top 7 teams (#7 is still within the picture too!), "Cesar's Frisky Hands" have made the fewest moves (11), and, well, I'm not sure we want them to be making too many moves, honestly. :>  

 

How are the other BCB leagues going?  Is this typical?

In the Cleveland/Cincy game today, something happened I am pretty sure I never saw in Chicago, for better or worse... Dusty threw a full-blown tantrum. 

Grady Sizemore hit a triple, pulling Cleveland within 1 run in the top of the 7th.  The throw from the outfield appeared to get into the dugout (and would have if not for Gomes backing up the play, all the way from LF).  Sizemore saw the throw getting away, and tried to take home.  He was called out on a great play at the plate.  The play was overruled by 3rd-base umpire Rob Drake, citing Rosales for obstruction of Sizemore at 3rd base. 

Dusty did the standard "yell at the ump" routine, but much more animated than he usually appeared during such conversations that I've seen, and on the way back he was taking off his hat and yanking it back down on his head.  Then, they showed a clip of him in the dugout throwing stuff around.  It seemed so out of character for him.

(24-team strat league, 40 in majors, 10 in minors which can include players outside of MLB systems such as college and Japan)

If I can't pull off a trade in the next week, I will have to cut one of the following good minor-leaguers.  Assume real-world worth, except that RHP are slightly more valuable than LHP.  It's not roto, so things like defense are important and home park and team quality really aren't.  Thoughts?

1. Jeremy Jeffress
2. Wade Davis
3. Neftali Feliz
4. Hank Conger
5. Brandon Erbe
6. Desmond Jennings
7. Nick Weglarz
8. Josh Reddick
9. Jeremy Hellickson
10. Fautino De Los Santos

 

Thanks!

 

 

I play in an AL-only 5x5 roto league with almost unlimited keepers (40-man rosters, and salary cap based on an online game, but unless you have the Yankees, you don't push that cap).  Categories are: AVG,OBP,HR,SB,RP and the usual 5 for pitchers.  

I traded 2009 picks for 2008 picks and drafted 14 extra players, so I have some cuts to make before the season begins.  We can draft anyone who has played AA or higher ever, but after the draft, players can only be picked up if they play in the bigs.  FA's such as Scott Linebrink and Alexei Ramirez were draft-eligible.  Players who come over in trade go to the team which had the players traded away.

Please comment on my draft picks, and which guys you'd think are easy cuts.  I don't really have team needs for 2008, per se, although my only saves guy is K-Rod, and I always want more SP.  Not that I'm going to win going away, but I should contend, and have a balanced lineup and pitching.  

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Personally, I'd like to participate in this community prospect poll again at some point, so I was wondering how much of the Fukudome non-voting is based on "principle", instead of a measuring of his prospect value.  If the "I'm not going to vote for this guy, ever" people make up a big enough % of the voting base, I'm going to stop voting for him, too.  As I said in another post, I don't think we can have split opinions on this issue and generate a true "consensus" list.

Poll

Fukudome?

5%

Eww - 30+ is even worser than not drawing walks! Maybe in the 70-100 range.

9 votes

18%

I haven't voted for him, but I may soon. Others are over-rating him a bit.

29 votes

33%

I have voted for him (at least once).

52 votes

27%

I don't think he should be on the ballots. (Not in a MiLB system or other reason)

43 votes

15%

I don't think anyone over 30 can possibly be a top-100 prospect.

24 votes

157 votes | Poll has closed

Josh Kroeger sort of re-emerged in 2007 in the Cubs minors.  Given their lineup's "conservative" leanings (almost all rightys), they could really use a reasonable lefty bat.  Do people think he has a chance to be that still?

Poll

3-year Kroeger outlook?

35%

Becomes a decent left-side of a platoon.

14 votes

7%

Becomes a nearly "average" full-time major league OF.

3 votes

2%

Becomes an above-average MLB OF (or better).

1 votes

20%

Becomes nothing more than a 5th-outfielder/PH, IF he gets major league jobs at all.

8 votes

35%

Becomes a reasonable 4th-OF/PH.

14 votes

40 votes | Poll has closed

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Alright, I know that Enrique isn't going to win the Cy Young award like his teammate did last year.  But I was reminded of how "under the radar" this guy seems to be, when reading that diary asking for rankings of 12 pitchers.  And I wouldn't touch him in roto, but then again, I would hesitate to utilize any pitcher who didn't get as much sink on their pitches as possible in Arizona.  

Consider these EqPECOTAs:

Matt Garza, 2007: 8.5 H9, 3.1 W9, 6.7 K9, 1.1 HR9, 2.6 WXRL in 150 IP.
Enrique Gonzalez, 07: 9.1 H9, 2.8 W9, 5.3 K9, 1.0 HR9, 2.6 WXRL in 156 IP.
Jeremy Sowers, 2007: 10.0 H9, 2.7 W9, 4.2 K9, 1.1 HR9, 2.5 WXRL in 165 IP.

I'm not trying to dis Garza or Sowers, either... most of the pitchers on that other list are in this range of WXRL, although most are higher than 2.5/150 IP.  I'm mainly wondering what people think of Gonzalez's future.  Is he one of those guys who will struggle to be a 5th starter for a few years before washing out?  Will he be a "solid" 5th starter (whatever that is)?  Will he be a reasonable 4th starter for a few years?  Can he aspire to anything more than that?  Or, maybe, he'll end up in the pen? (He is, after all, less than 6' tall).  Thoughts?

I read at the MLB Trade Rumors site that Beane has offered Harden to the Mets.  The article there said it was for two players (Carlos Gomez and one of: Milledge, Humber, Pelfrey).  The original article is a bit ambiguous, but it sounds like it's for 3 players (Carlos Gomez, Milledge, and one of the 2 pitchers).  I'm curious what people here think about these possibilities, given the obvious bias toward prospects.

Poll

What is Harden worth to the Mets?

10%

I would trade Gomez, Milledge, and a pitcher for him.

11 votes

5%

I would trade Gomez, Milledge, and a pitcher for him, and then celebrate about how Beane was clearly bested in a deal!

6 votes

13%

I wouldn't even trade 2 prospects for him.

15 votes

24%

I would trade Gomez and Milledge for him.

26 votes

46%

I would trade Gomez and a pitcher for him.

50 votes

108 votes | Poll has closed

I combined the top 50 from here, Baseball Digest Daily, and MiLB.com, weighting each the same.  The list comes out as:

1. Alex Gordon
   
2. Delmon Young
   
3. Philip Hughes
   
4. Homer Bailey
   
5. Brandon Wood
   
6. Cameron Maybin
   
7. Justin Upton
   
8. Jay Bruce
   
9. Chris Young
   
10. Troy Tulowitzki
    
11. Billy Butler
    
12. Matt Garza
    
13. Andrew McCutchen
    
14. Evan Longoria
    
15. Adam Miller
    
16. Andy LaRoche
    
17. Yovani Gallardo
    
18. Mike Pelfrey
    
19. Carlos Gonzalez
    
20. Reid Brignac
    
21. Scott Elbert
    
22. Andrew Miller
    
23. Ryan Braun
    
24. Jose Tabata
    
25. Tim Lincecum
    
26. Fernando Martinez
    
27. Nick Adenhart
    
28. James Loney
    
29. Luke Hochevar
    
30. Adam Jones
    
31. Clayton Kershaw
    
32. Hunter Pence
    
33. Josh Fields
    
34. Jarrod Saltalamacchia
    
35. Jacoby Ellsbury
    
36. Jeff Clement
    
37. Elijah Dukes
    
38. Felix Pie
    
39. Jason Hirsh
    
40. Ian Stewart
    
41. Colby Rasmus
    
42. Daric Barton
    
43. Chris Iannetta
    
44. Adam Lind
    
45. Joey Votto
    
46. Jeff Niemann
    
47. John Danks
    
48. Erick Aybar
    
49. Chuck Lofgren
    
50. Brandon Erbe

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Hi all -

First post here.  I hope you're all enjoying your Holidays!  I've been an M's fan since Griffey's debut.  I get the impression that I'm one of the few people who is actually somewhat optimistic about this season. Here are some excerpts from stuff I've posted at baseballhq.com regarding the team:

Re: post-Soriano bullpen [one of the paid staff at BHQ called the M's pen "razor thin"]:
I really think that "razor thin pen" is quite overblown. This was a tremendous bullpen last year, and while they lost 2 quality arms (Lowe, Soriano) and Fruto, I still think this pen will hold leads unless Putz completely collapses (a possibility, but not one I'd consider likely).

Sherrill has a huge L/R split, and is very good at his role as a Lefty Specialist (no relationship to the BHQ member, I assume :>).
<><>
Alright, having the projections in a spreadsheet allows me to do fun things like compute the weighted average BVP of the relievers on a team (I summed up all the sub-4.0 IP/G pitchers, and weighted by IP). For the current projection file, this is 74 for the Mariners. Actually, that it's that good shocks even me (my gut tells me it's around average, perhaps slightly better if some things work out right), as it's the 2nd-highest in the majors! (The team which comes out #1 is even more shocking)

Of course, the SP rotation (totaling 944 IP) averages only "47", which betters only COL, KC, and WAS. I guess that's expected, since they have been hoarding the sort of pitchers who often out-pitch their BPV's (i.e. low-K).

Note: BHQ has a system of values called BPV's, and 50+ is considered good enough to start, and 75+ good enough to close.  It's a lot like "Stuff" ratings found elsewhere.

Re: Vidro deal (posted on baseballhq.com):
I really think that people are being pretty harsh on this deal for the M's. Consider:

In 1987, an oft-injured middle infielder was coming off seasons wherein he'd hit:

1985. .297/.356/.408 (576 AB) [age 28]
      
1986. .281/.340/.426 (437 AB) [age 29]
      

At this time, his career stats were: .291/.348/.418.

The next year, he hit .353/438/.566, finishing 5th in MVP voting. Spending significant time at DH for the first time (58 games), he still only managed 465 AB, probably keeping him from being higher in the MVP voting. As he played more frequently at DH later into his career, he became much less injury prone, and became a monster hitter, getting MVP votes in 6 other seasons.

Vidro's last two years:

2005. .275/.339/.424 (309/30)
      
2006. .289/.348/.395 (463/31)
      

At this time, his career stats are: .300/.363/.459.

Now, I'm not going to suggest that Vidro is going to hit like Paul Molitor after his move to DH, but this guy's been a quality hitter when healthy, and who's to say whether taking him out of the keystone won't be exactly what he needs? The daily abuse on catchers and 2bmen is brutal. And I think the TYPE of hitter Vidro is will play well in SAFECO. Signing righty power-hitting goombahs in Beltre and Sexson were the goofy moves, IMO, since building around players who are ill-suited for their home park seems illogical to me.

FWIW, Snelling, also, would have "fit" well into SAFECO, in my opinion. But - this never fails to get chuckles from the crowd - the Mariners are building a team to contend in 2007, and counting on a guy who has a history of missing so much time is very risky.
<><><>
Only time will tell, I guess. If the Vidro salary is the objectionable part, I can only argue that his career stats seem pretty nice to me. And besides, I haven't seen the M's make (or fail to make) moves based on money, so far. They seem to be getting the players they want, and paying them handsomely. I see Snelling and Fruto as flotsam that will provide only replacement-level play at the major-league level. Obviously, pitchers are tough to predict, so perhaps Fruto will do something, but I think he'll have to take a step up to get there. But let's level-set the players we're talking about here: Fruto didn't make either the BHQ org report, nor the John Sickels book last year at all. BHQ liked Snelling more than Sickels, rating him 10th in Seattle's org, while John gave him a "C", the lowest grade in the book. Coming off these not-great ratings, he proceeded to hit .216 with a .340 slugging in AAA, supposedly healthy for much of that time. Well, at least he hit .250 in the majors in 96 AB.

This deal was clearly a Vidro salary dump by the Nats, IMO. And even if Vidro doesn't improve, he's been worth 2.75 WARP1/season the past two years (two of his worst in his career, with his best being 8.0 and 7.7). So, they're paying his $6MM/yr. In an article, I suggested that $2MM/win is reasonable, and Tango's table assumes that teams pay $4MM/yr per win for free agents. So, he's either at about the right price, or very cheap.

[Someone had commented that Doyle should have just been used as DH instead of Vidro.]

By the way, I agree that Snelling should have been tried at DH if possible, and am baffled that the M's hadn't tried that before. I just think it would be ridiculous to do so at the MLB level, with as little as he's shown. Not every injury-prone hitter gets helped by playing DH, but some do. Molitor and Edgar Martinez were the first two that came to mind. I don't believe that Snelling has anywhere near the hitting skills to be a full-time MLB DH, though. BHQ projects a .265/.338/.397 line. Is that something worth getting worked up over? Much less playing at DH. His seemingly huge 2005 numbers were driven by [a BABIP] of 43%, and I don't trust them for a minute.

I thought the Soriano deal was quite reasonable, too. Starters the quality of Horacio Ramirez are pulling down $10MM/yr contracts now. I really don't understand why there is such widespread panning of this move. (see this article)

So, you love prospects, and want to be a farm director, without all the hassle of piecing together major league lineups, worrying about injuries, or following a team through the whole season?  How about becoming a "simulated" farm director?

I'm a member of a very in-depth Strat-O-Matic league, with 30 teams and 150-player rosters.  The initial draft was last year, and I was aware that some of the people, while experienced SOM vets, weren't very excited about building a farm system.  Knowing how much knowledge and passion for minor leaguers the people on this site have, I thought I'd get some help for them (actually I was inspired because one was considering leaving the league).  So, I floated the idea around the league, and here's what some of them said:

Owner 1:
"I need to find someone to draft for me and be in charge of player development.  I do not know enough about players to do a good job of it.  I hardly even know the players in my farm system"

Owner 2:
"I think its a great idea. I need all the help I can get."

Owner 3:
"Any help with minor league stuff would be appreciated.  I have 150 [players] right now, and if pressed I do not think I could name 45 of them."

What would you have to do?

1. Work with these managers to decide on 40-man rosters (all 4th-year minor leaguers must be protected or lost).
   
2. Suggest cuts (pre-draft) from the other 110 players to clear out the clutter in the off-season (i.e. soon).
   
3. Work with them on drafting (February).  Draft picks (like MLB) aren't tradable, so your team would have all its picks, and most first-year players are available (anyone previously drafted was already available, so I have Justin Smoak, for example).  By "work with them", I think most would be happy to just let you do the draft for them, so you'd have pride of "ownership".
   
4. Individual agreements can be worked out, but my understanding is that most managers would like to have someone who would stay with the team more than through just one draft, so you could have input into trades, etc.
   
5. Sim knowledge is helpful, but entirely optional - good ballplayers are good ballplayers.

The league is www.the-usbl.org, if you want to see how things are now.  Send me an email off my bio page, and I'll help get the "farm directors" in contact with the teams that need them.  If you don't want to tell me your alias on the site, please include some things about yourself that would make you a good farm director.

Someone posted of Moises Alou that: "He probably will give the Mets an OPS of .900."

Zips has him doing (in NY):

2007 ZiPS Projection - Moises Alou
----------------------------------------------------------------------
              AB   R    H  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB    BA   OBP   SLG  
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Projection   400  60  114  23  1  20  66  43  48   2  .285  .358  .498

BJHB has him doing (in SF): .284/.355/.481

He's averaged about a .920 OPS the past three seasons (2004-2006), which have been - needless to say - somewhat interrupted by injuries.  He turned 40 in July.  What do people here think he'll do?

Poll

What OPS will Moises Have?

19%

891-910

18 votes

4%

800 or lower

4 votes

8%

911+

8 votes

18%

801-850

17 votes

25%

851-870

24 votes

19%

871-890

18 votes

5%

less than 150 AB, so it won't matter much

5 votes

94 votes | Poll has closed

On this day when we give thanks, what are you most thankful for in the world of baseball player moves so far this offseason?

There has been a lot of talk about which of the high-priced moves is the most insane.  But, in between eating turkey, enjoying family, eating more turkey, watching football, eating turkey, playing football, and ... well ... pillaging the fridge to see what you have that doesn't contain turkey... what's made you happy this offseason?  If it's something just in the "rumors" stage, that's fine too.  Anything is welcome.  

Poll

For What Baseball Player Move(s) are you Most Thankful?

18%

My team did NOT sign Gary Matthews, Jr.

23 votes

2%

My team signed Soriano

3 votes

22%

My team hasn't overpaid on any free agents yet.

28 votes

6%

My team did NOT sign Soriano (for his crazy contract)

8 votes

7%

My team traded a high-priced 38-y.o. outfielder for 3 live young arms.

9 votes

3%

My team retained a key player (e.g.Torii Hunter or Mike Mussina) for a sane price

4 votes

2%

Other (go crazy!)

3 votes

13%

My team paid about 6B yen to talk to Matsuzaka

17 votes

17%

My team did NOT sign Juan Pierre

21 votes

4%

My team did NOT pay about 6B yen to talk to Matsuzaka

6 votes

122 votes | Poll has closed

I did some number crunching on the historic database, trying to get a better idea of what players have had careers like Soriano has had so far, and how they have progressed after age 30 (his seasonal age in 2006). Here are some thresholds I used to screen the data:

batting seasons from 1960-2005.

batters who had 3000+ AB through age 30 (Soriano has 3900).

batters who played at age 31+ (this mainly got rid of active players who aren't 31 yet).

I then compiled stats for all these guys through age 30, and for ages 31+. Then I went about screening the "through age 30 stats" to get guys who are at least somewhat like Soriano:

players with .450+ slugging through age 30 (Soriano is .510).

players with a K:W rate of 3+ (Soriano is almost at 4:1 for his career).

players who stole a base after 2% of their plate appearances (or more. Soriano is at 5%).

In a strange twist of fate, these screens found 3 players, and all three are ex-Cubs. Go ahead and try to guess... I'll put the rest of my research in the Comments below....

I play in a 5x5 AL roto league, and we have unconventional retention rules - we can keep players forever, but have to pay them their CDM salaries each year, with a $20 million cap on our 25-man rosters (we also have a 15-man bench).  We can "contract" up to 7 players at their salaries in their previous seasons (I put a contract on Jered Weaver this year at his 2006 salary, which was minimal).  We have an annual draft of available players who have played at least AA ball (and imports).

Categories are a little odd: BA, OBP, SB, HR, RP (R+RBI-HR).

Anyway, I finished next-to-last this season.  I get the 2nd pick in the draft.  To me, there are so far three outstanding picks:

1. J.D. Drew (assuming about an $1100 salary - most stars make ~$1500 to $2000 max)
   
2. Diasake Matsuzaka (assuming $1000, but he could be anywhere from $500-$1500)
   
3. Alex Gordon ($100)

Gordon would be ultra-cheap this year, and each of the next 5 years.  My team will be mildly in contention this year, although losing Liriano hurts badly.  I have adequate 2007 SP (with great future, hopefully), and have Teahen at 3b, and holes in LF and RF right now (I also have Butler coming).  

Option 1: The patient thing to do would be to draft Alex Gordon and take my lumps this year again while looking forward to watching the Royals for the next decade or so, yet probably failing to  break into the money this year.

Option 2: The "grab the money and run" move would be to take Drew if he signs with the Red Sox.  Given any sort healthiness at all in that lineup, he should put up some huge numbers.  He'd fill a hole, and I think he's a reasonable gamble to out-stat Gordon for 2007 and 2008.  I think adding Drew puts me into contention for the #2/#3 money slots, assuming I can figure out LF and Closer.

Questions: I'm assuming that Matsuzaka will be gone with pick 1, but maybe not.  How would people rank these three?  Should I try to trade for the #1 pick to insure I get one of these guys?  Bonds, Schmidt, C-Lee may all be available too, assuming they come to the AL.  

Thanks!

I got this idea from a Strat-O-Matic forum, but it is a real baseball brain teaser:

Your goal is to put together the best 25-man roster from the FA's that hit the market Sunday. Pretend you have been awarded an expansion team and you need to fill the 25-man roster strictly from the FA list. Try to stay under $80MM/yr in "expected 2007 salary" if possible.

==> Since this blog is lively, I posted it on a new blog location... check it out, it's fun and challenging!
(http://bobbymacbaseball.blogspot.com/index.html)

P.S. The other site has a complete list of the guys who declared FA on Sunday.

 I got this idea from a Strat-O-Matic forum, but it is a real baseball brain teaser:

Your goal is to put together the best 25-man roster from the FA's that hit the market Sunday. Pretend you have been awarded an expansion team and you need to fill the 25-man roster strictly from the FA list. Try to stay under $80MM/yr in "expected 2007 salary" if possible.

==> Since this blog is lively, I posted it on a new blog location... check it out, it's fun and challenging!
(http://bobbymacbaseball.blogspot.com/index.html)

P.S. The other site has a complete list of the guys who declared FA on Sunday.

In March, 10 BA staffers had what they called a "Dream Draft" (http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/features/26872.html), where each of them drafted 10 players from all baseball in order of "best player available" for the purposes of 2006-2011 production.  Here are two of those teams (I checked, and it's not listed as subscriber content any more), the one voted "best draft" by most of his peers, and the one voted "worst draft" by most of his peers (and a list of players that made the "surprise" list by being undrafted).  

WILL LINGO

    1.    Joe Mauer, c, Twins (22)
    2.    Jake Peavy, rhp, Padres (24)
    3.    Derrek Lee, 1b, Cubs (30)
    4.    Howie Kendrick, 2b, Angels (22)
    5.    Jeff Francoeur, of, Braves (22)
    6.    Eric Chavez, 3b, Athletics (28)
    7.    Chad Cordero, rhp, Nationals (24)
    8.    Brandon McCarthy, rhp, White Sox (22)
    9.    Jorge Cantu, 2b, Devil Rays (24)
    10.    Paul Konerko, 1b, White Sox (30)

WILL KIMMEY

    1.    Miguel Cabrera, of/3b, Marlins (22)
    2.    Dontrelle Wills, rhp, Marlins (24)
    3.    Rich Harden, rhp, Athletics (24)
    4.    Michael Young, ss, Rangers (29)
    5.    Alex Gordon, 3b, Royals (22)
    6.    Manny Ramirez, of, Red Sox (33)
    7.    Derek Jeter, ss, Yankees (31)
    8.    Carl Crawford, of, Devil Rays (24)
    9.    Pedro Martinez, rhp, Mets (34)
    10.    Ichiro Suzuki, of, Mariners (32)

NOT DRAFTED

Jose Reyes
Troy Tulowitzki
Wily Mo Pena
Rusell Martin
Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Chris Carpenter
Bobby Abreu
Khalil Greene

Poll

Who had the best draft for 2006-2011?

21%

Alan Schwarz

23 votes

1%

Will Lingo

2 votes

17%

Will Kimmey

19 votes

5%

Alan Matthews

6 votes

11%

Matt Meyers

12 votes

8%

Jim Callis

9 votes

0%

Aaron Fitt

0 votes

14%

John Manuel

15 votes

14%

J.J. Cooper

15 votes

4%

Chris Kline

5 votes

106 votes | Poll has closed

Continue reading this post »

Josh Barfield was a 4th-round pick in 2001.  He had good and encouraging seasons in 2001 (rookie) and 2002 (low-A), and was on all the prospect radars, although not as a "future star".

After his 2003 season, Barfield was all the rage.  He'd hit .337/.389/.530 as a 20-year-old in high-A ball, playing middle infield!  He was (and is) the son of a former home-run champion, and excellent defensive RF.

In 2004, Barfield played much of the season with an injury, and managed to hit 49 XBH as a 21-year-old in AA.  Despite his .248 average (and .313/.417 OBP/SLG), BA still ranked him atop a weak Padres minor league system that year.  Seemingly, the buzz left him after this season, much as it left fellow 2b prospect Jayson Nix.

In 2005, Barfield, then 22, hit .310/.370/.450 in AAA.  He finished up by hitting .343-11-50 over the last 3 months.  Among other things, it would maintain his almost "perfect attendance" record in pro ball, with 500+ AB every full season.  This performance was enough to drop him to Padres 3rd on both John's list, and on BA's.  John rated him a "B".

In 2006, Barfield as a rookie hit .280/.318/.423.  And, while that doesn't sound like much, Petco is a brutal place for a righty hitter with power.  His road stats were .319/.355/.484.

So, what's the future hold for this guy?  I see a player who may never learn to take walks, but has hit .300+ at almost every level (including the non-Petco portion of MLB), and seems to hit the ball hard (reasonable XBH totals).  He stays in the lineup, which is a useful skill.  Defensive stats are unreliable, but he's 9th (in all MLB) on this year's Fielding Bible +/- List (from the BJHB).  And his ZR is league-average.  

With all the hoopla about the Florida rookies, Fielder, Hamels, etc, he gets almost no attention when good up-and-coming players are mentioned.  Does he deserve more?  Will he just be "servicable"?  Or is he truly a star whose light will be dimmed as long as he plays in Petco (ala Khalil Greene and his career .850 road OPS)?

Hi all -

This is a shameless attempt to get some help with my fantasy team, which I know nobody cares about.  But still, the following pitchers are young guys I picked up during this season, and can keep if I so choose.  But I have to cut one, and I really am having difficulty differentiating... any additional information people have on them would be very helpful, and most appreciated!

Chad Gaudin, A's.
Chris Britton, O's.
Mark Lowe, M's.
Jake Woods, M's.
Ryan Feierabend, M's.
Andrew Brown, I's?
Fausto Carmona, Indians.

Thanks!!!

Hey all -

There's a ballplayer I simply cannot figure out. This Chris Duncan guy.  I know he's "graduated" from the minors, but he was recently there, and we're talking Cardinals and rookies and stuff on here anyway...

Here are some pertinent data:

Born: 5/5/81 (seasonal age 26 for 2007 season)
6'5", 210
Bats: L
Natural position: 1b
Has also played: LF, RF

2006 MLB: 280 AB: .293/.363/.589 (22hr!)
vs L: .170/.220/.319
vs R: .318/.390/.644

2006 AAA:181 AB: .271/.359/.448 (7hr)
vs L: .229/.260/.292
vs R: .286/.391/.504

2005 AAA:431 AB: .265/.358/.469
(splits unknown)

So, the question is this... approximately how good do you think an average of his three best seasons will be when he's done with his career?

A. Power spike this year is the real deal... he's finally developing. He may always lose a few AB to lefties, but expect his "peaks" to be around .290/.390/.600

B. He's always had good power, but the league will catch up to him a little, and he won't really surpass his 2006. Peaks around: .275/.370/.525 (think: almost as good as Ryan Klesko).

C. Come on - he's shown his true level at AAA. Expect peaks around .265/.360/.470, and almost worthless against lefties.

D. Maybe a little growth from his AAA level, but then you have to account for the dropoff from AAA->MLB, peaks around: .260/.350/.450, nothing against LHP.

E. His MLE from 2006 was .243/.315/.381. Expect his peak (even including 2006 season) to be around .245/.333/.420, and he becomes more-or-less a pinch-hitter or a Pirate.

Thanks!

Poll

Which stat line best represents Chris Duncan's peak (3 best) seasons?

5%

.245/.333/.420

6 votes

5%

.290/.390/.600

6 votes

0%

other (please comment)

1 votes

27%

.275/.370/.525

30 votes

37%

.265/.360/.470

41 votes

23%

.260/.350/.450

26 votes

110 votes | Poll has closed

Nolasco vs. Mets:
8.2 IP, 26 hits, 22 runs, 19 ER, 2 HR, 5 BB, 10 K, 19.73 ERA.

Somehow, I don't think he'll be naming his kid "Shea" like Chipper did.  :>

Anyone have insights into this guy? I didn't get to see him much this summer (only a few innings total). I remember in June he was looking like he was going to be a top-5 rookie. Here are his monthly ERAs:
3.72
4.03
2.62
5.60
7.48
5.30

Hurt? League figured him out? First time throwing lots of innings? Post Traumatic Mets Syndrome? Other ideas?

Hi all -

I don't know much about the NBA, but play annually in a fantasy league with some former co-workers, and I could use some help.  

First up, there are still 3 potential openings... they aim for 20 teams, and we're at 17.  If you'd be an active owner (i.e. not ignoring the team for months at a time like I have done sometimes), put a reply here, and I'll send you details.  NBA knowledge is all across the board in this league, and it's free, so if you're looking to get started, this could be fun.  And the top few owners are quite savvy, so it could be a challenge for knowledgable NBA fans.

Next, I have a rotopass.com subscription, and they have a tool to allow a user to enter league settings and then they shoot out their rankings.  Have other people used this tool?  Do the RW rankings have biases that I should know about?  I'm not looking to pour a lot of time into this league, but if they "usually under-value SG" or something like that, it would be nice to know.  Do people know of other free ranking services that they prefer?

Lastly, any tips?  We're doing the draft "live" this year, since last year, Yahoo drafted really crazy... I got 6 guys rated at Center in my first 10 rounds, I think, and my best PG was some injured backup.  Here are the stats we use: FGA (-1), FGM (1), FTA (-1), FTM (1), PTS (1), REB (1), AST (1), ST (1), BLK (1), TO (-1)

Thanks!

Hi all -

I saw Brian Slocum pitch against the White Sox today, and was wondering if anyone could supply some info on him (I thought of this board because indiansfan seems to know everything about Indians prospects!)  

It appears this guy dropped off of most prospect lists, after being highly touted out of college a few years ago (he went 63rd in 2002).  Baseballhq.com mentions him as an afterthought in the Cleveland organizational report, but he's not in John's book or the BA book.  I also see that he had a reasonable season in Buffalo, despite being a bit old (or at least not young) for the league.  What do people think of his upside?  Is he destined to be one of those guys who bounces around in "low-leverage relief" roles, sometimes starting games when needed?  Or could be become better?  He strikes people out, gets grounders, and doesn't allow gobs of homers, which is usually a good combo.

Thanks!

While there's so much SF Giants discussion going on... I have some questions about their minor-league system:

I got the Giants "leftovers" in a Strat league... we have drafted 30 teams of 60 players each, and are filling out rosters to 125 by choosing one organization each. I picked 23rd, and the Giants were still remaining.  

First question:
I discovered these two guys in A-Ball, and was wondering if anyone can tell me anything about them? I know minor-league relievers are inherently risky, but I was wondering what these guys throw, and any other useful info on them.

1. David Quinowski (born April, 1986, low-A): 70.2 IP, 34 H, 0 HR, 73:24 K:BB ratio
   
2. Justin Hedrick (born June, 1982, hi-A Cal): 68.2 IP, 41 H, 2 HR, 80:26 K:BB ratio
   

[Hedrick is C+ in the book, why is he in A-ball still?]

Second question:
Does anyone know any Giants prospects who may not have flashy stats, but might be worth a flyer? Guys drafted in 2006 are not available unless they were drafted previously.  In general, these would be guys beyond the scope of John's book and top-20 list.

Thanks!!

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Hi all -

I spent the $45 and bought stats from thebaseballcube.com.  One of the first questions I answered for myself is one I raised here this past off-season... namely, how rare is it to do what Daric Barton did last year in AA (at his age)?  So, here's a list of all players who've slugged .475+ in 150+ AB at seasonal age 19 (or less) who are still active...

Daric Barton (0.491) 2005 Midland Tex AA
Adrian Beltre (0.581) 1998 San Antonio Tex AA
Juan Gonzalez (0.506) 1989 Tulsa Tex AA
Joel Guzman (0.522) 2004 Jacksonville Sou AA
Andruw Jones (0.675) 1996 Greenville Sou AA
Wayne Lydon (0.482) 1999 Birmingham Sou AA
Alex Rodriguez (0.654) 1995 Tacoma PCL AAA
Gary Sheffield (0.591) 1988 El Paso Tex AA
Gary Sheffield (0.561) 1988 Denver Amer AAA
B.J. Upton (0.519) 2004 Durham IL AAA
Delmon Young (0.582) 2005 Montgomery Sou AA

A lot has been written on Jose Tabata here, but I had a simple question that I was hoping someone could answer for me: What is the history of players who have started a full-season league (A or higher) at age 17 or less?  How about those who won't be 18 until after the season?  

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I was searching for something unrelated, and ran into a symposium from last year...

http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2005/2/25/115344/022

Looking back, I find it interesting that exactly one respondee said that they would take Zambrano in a big game (over other Cub starters).  I really liked the ERA+ and Size similarity comparison that Tinkers2Evers did.  

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"Hit .232/.308/.436 in 69 games after being promoted to Cincinnati. I like him and he will do better than that in the long run. Just 22 years old after all." (from John's review of CIN top-20)

I don't have last year's book, so I apologize in advance.  But I really haven't gotten a good read on this guy.  I saw him play a couple times last year, and he looked lost on defense, but he is supposed to be a good defensive player ("plus arm, quick hands, and middle-infield actions" according to BA).  He slugged .436 in his debut after demolishing AAA, which isn't bad at all for his age - even given the ballpark.  

Yet, it appears as though nobody really talks about him among the good young players in the game now.  BA suggested he'd peak around .280-.300 with 20-25 HR.  I'd think with his patience, that would make for a very good ballplayer.  Maybe not Marte's peak value, but not far behind either.

I thought I might be the only person who still thought he was good.  I was IM-ing with a fellow strat player, and asked whose future he'd rather have - knowing he weighted walks extremely high - EE or Jeff Francoeur (we weren't negotiating a trade).  He replied emphatically that he'd rather have Francoeur.  I was surprised.  

I probably would have just let it go, and figured that maybe I overrated EE, but I looked him up in PECOTA today, and saw that BP has him slated as a ~20% "superstar", starting in 2006, with Chavez, Dw. Evans, and Larry Parrish being the top three comparables.

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