SB Nation User Blog: BobbyMac

BCB Fantasy Baseball - Race is On in League IV

BobbyMac — Sat, 15 Aug 2009 16:20:56 -0000

I know nobody cares about anyone else's fantasy teams, but I've played in a lot of leagues over the years, and the 11-team BCB Fantasy Baseball IV league is probably the most competitive I've seen, with 6 teams over 70, and the leader at just 77.5. (http://games.espn.go.com/flb/leagueoffice?leagueId=18445)

Sure, I'm posting to gloat somewhat, as I was mired in the lower-middle rankings for most of the season, and am now in the lead. But while I have no intention of relinquishing the lead, I also realize that one bad day could see me back in 6th place - and that makes for a great race! And of the top 7 teams (#7 is still within the picture too!), "Cesar's Frisky Hands" have made the fewest moves (11), and, well, I'm not sure we want them to be making too many moves, honestly. :>

How are the other BCB leagues going? Is this typical?

Dusty Going Nutso

BobbyMac — Sun, 24 May 2009 19:29:28 -0000

In the Cleveland/Cincy game today, something happened I am pretty sure I never saw in Chicago, for better or worse... Dusty threw a full-blown tantrum.

Grady Sizemore hit a triple, pulling Cleveland within 1 run in the top of the 7th. The throw from the outfield appeared to get into the dugout (and would have if not for Gomes backing up the play, all the way from LF). Sizemore saw the throw getting away, and tried to take home. He was called out on a great play at the plate. The play was overruled by 3rd-base umpire Rob Drake, citing Rosales for obstruction of Sizemore at 3rd base.

Dusty did the standard "yell at the ump" routine, but much more animated than he usually appeared during such conversations that I've seen, and on the way back he was taking off his hat and yanking it back down on his head. Then, they showed a clip of him in the dugout throwing stuff around. It seemed so out of character for him.

Which Prospect To Cut?

BobbyMac — Tue, 03 Feb 2009 23:05:07 -0000

(24-team strat league, 40 in majors, 10 in minors which can include players outside of MLB systems such as college and Japan)

If I can't pull off a trade in the next week, I will have to cut one of the following good minor-leaguers. Assume real-world worth, except that RHP are slightly more valuable than LHP. It's not roto, so things like defense are important and home park and team quality really aren't. Thoughts?

1. Jeremy Jeffress
2. Wade Davis
3. Neftali Feliz
4. Hank Conger
5. Brandon Erbe
6. Desmond Jennings
7. Nick Weglarz
8. Josh Reddick
9. Jeremy Hellickson
10. Fautino De Los Santos

Thanks!

OT: Draft done - feedback please

BobbyMac — Sun, 16 Mar 2008 22:48:30 -0000

I play in an AL-only 5x5 roto league with almost unlimited keepers (40-man rosters, and salary cap based on an online game, but unless you have the Yankees, you don't push that cap). Categories are: AVG,OBP,HR,SB,RP and the usual 5 for pitchers.

I traded 2009 picks for 2008 picks and drafted 14 extra players, so I have some cuts to make before the season begins. We can draft anyone who has played AA or higher ever, but after the draft, players can only be picked up if they play in the bigs. FA's such as Scott Linebrink and Alexei Ramirez were draft-eligible. Players who come over in trade go to the team which had the players traded away.

Please comment on my draft picks, and which guys you'd think are easy cuts. I don't really have team needs for 2008, per se, although my only saves guy is K-Rod, and I always want more SP. Not that I'm going to win going away, but I should contend, and have a balanced lineup and pitching.

Drafted players:

Jed Lowrie - dropped to #6.
Carlos Quentin - #10
Bowden, Michael - #23
Josh Reddick - #27
Mason, Chris
Trevor Plouffe
Penn, Hayden
Mike Lamb
McCrory, Bob
Alberto Callaspo
German Duran
Whelan, Kevin
Thompson, Richard
Brian Anderson
Morgan Ensberg
Sanchez, Humberto
Sosa, Oswaldo
Chin Hui Tsao
Jason Botts
Bautista, Denny
Shin-Soo Choo
Jeremy Reed
Casilla, Santiago
Ramirez, Edwar
Dan Wheeler
Lewis, Scott

Here's my pre-draft roster:

Active hitters:
Jason Kubel, Min
Torii Hunter, LAA
Mark Teahen, KC
Curtis Granderson, Det
Travis Buck, Oak
Kurt Suzuki, Oak
Gerald Laird, Tex
Billy Butler, KC
Asdrubal Cabrera, Cle
Jhonny Peralta, Cle
Alex Gordon, KC
Jason Bartlett, TB
Kendry Morales, LAA
Dustin Pedroia, Bos

Active pitchers:

Fausto Carmona, Cle
Jered Weaver, LAA
Jarrod Washburn, Sea
Dontrelle Willis, Det
Kyle Davies, KC
Matt Garza, TB
Francisco Rodriguez, LAA
Brandon Morrow, Sea
Shaun Marcum, Tor

Adam Loewen, Bal (EXTRA slot, could be a hitter instead)
Glen Perkins, Min (EXTRA slot, could be a hitter instead)

Minors:

Adam Miller, Cle
Garrett Olson, Bal
Eric Hurley, Tex

Thanks for the feedback!

Community Prospect Question - F-Bomb?

BobbyMac — Mon, 24 Dec 2007 15:09:24 -0000

Personally, I'd like to participate in this community prospect poll again at some point, so I was wondering how much of the Fukudome non-voting is based on "principle", instead of a measuring of his prospect value. If the "I'm not going to vote for this guy, ever" people make up a big enough % of the voting base, I'm going to stop voting for him, too. As I said in another post, I don't think we can have split opinions on this issue and generate a true "consensus" list.

Poll

Fukudome?

Eww - 30+ is even worser than not drawing walks! Maybe in the 70-100 range.

9 votes

I haven't voted for him, but I may soon. Others are over-rating him a bit.

29 votes

I have voted for him (at least once).

52 votes

I don't think he should be on the ballots. (Not in a MiLB system or other reason)

43 votes

I don't think anyone over 30 can possibly be a top-100 prospect.

24 votes

157 votes | Poll has closed

Josh Kroeger redux?

BobbyMac — Sun, 02 Dec 2007 23:33:42 -0000

Josh Kroeger sort of re-emerged in 2007 in the Cubs minors. Given their lineup's "conservative" leanings (almost all rightys), they could really use a reasonable lefty bat. Do people think he has a chance to be that still?

I know that his age-20 and age-21 seasons (2003 and 2004) were spent in some of the best hitting environments in the minors, but the fact remains that he raked at levels which are normally very challenging for a guy his age:

Age-20 combined stats (Lancaster/El Paso):
.314/.369/.468 (513 AB) - Was GREAT in A+ (305 AB), bad@AA.

Age-21 combined stats (El Paso/Tuscon):
.331/.380/.587 (553 AB) - killed both AA and AAA.

At this point, he made it up to 5th on John's list, and 7th on the BA list for Arizona, with negtives being listed as:

"overly aggressive approach"

"already lost a step" (but still can play CF in a pinch)

"effort has come into question"

"Arizona outfield depth"

As many here surely know, he followed that with 2 really crappy seasons at ages 22 and 23 (2005 and 2006).

Now, after I'd written him off, the Cubs picked him up (Yay Cubs - they so rarely find good reclamation projects!) They sent him back to AA to begin 2007, and he turned the Southern league upside down for 225 AB (.382/.449/.609). And, while his AAA numbers weren't worth writing home over, .263/.338/.474 isn't exactly awful for a 24-year-old at Iowa.

So, what do people think is most likely for Kroeger in the next few years?

A. Becomes nothing more than a 5th-outfielder/PH, IF he gets major league jobs at all.
B. Becomes a reasonable 4th-OF/PH.
C. Becomes a decent left-side of a platoon.
D. Becomes a nearly "average" full-time major league OF.
E. Becomes an above-average MLB OF (or better).

Poll

3-year Kroeger outlook?

Becomes a decent left-side of a platoon.

14 votes

Becomes a nearly "average" full-time major league OF.

3 votes

Becomes an above-average MLB OF (or better).

1 votes

Becomes nothing more than a 5th-outfielder/PH, IF he gets major league jobs at all.

8 votes

Becomes a reasonable 4th-OF/PH.

14 votes

40 votes | Poll has closed

Below the radar or below the ground - Enrique Gonzalez?

BobbyMac — Thu, 18 Jan 2007 10:31:04 -0000

Alright, I know that Enrique isn't going to win the Cy Young award like his teammate did last year. But I was reminded of how "under the radar" this guy seems to be, when reading that diary asking for rankings of 12 pitchers. And I wouldn't touch him in roto, but then again, I would hesitate to utilize any pitcher who didn't get as much sink on their pitches as possible in Arizona.

Consider these EqPECOTAs:

Matt Garza, 2007: 8.5 H9, 3.1 W9, 6.7 K9, 1.1 HR9, 2.6 WXRL in 150 IP.
Enrique Gonzalez, 07: 9.1 H9, 2.8 W9, 5.3 K9, 1.0 HR9, 2.6 WXRL in 156 IP.
Jeremy Sowers, 2007: 10.0 H9, 2.7 W9, 4.2 K9, 1.1 HR9, 2.5 WXRL in 165 IP.

I'm not trying to dis Garza or Sowers, either... most of the pitchers on that other list are in this range of WXRL, although most are higher than 2.5/150 IP. I'm mainly wondering what people think of Gonzalez's future. Is he one of those guys who will struggle to be a 5th starter for a few years before washing out? Will he be a "solid" 5th starter (whatever that is)? Will he be a reasonable 4th starter for a few years? Can he aspire to anything more than that? Or, maybe, he'll end up in the pen? (He is, after all, less than 6' tall). Thoughts?

Poll for Minaya?

BobbyMac — Fri, 29 Dec 2006 21:13:45 -0000

I read at the MLB Trade Rumors site that Beane has offered Harden to the Mets. The article there said it was for two players (Carlos Gomez and one of: Milledge, Humber, Pelfrey). The original article is a bit ambiguous, but it sounds like it's for 3 players (Carlos Gomez, Milledge, and one of the 2 pitchers). I'm curious what people here think about these possibilities, given the obvious bias toward prospects.

Poll

What is Harden worth to the Mets?

I would trade Gomez, Milledge, and a pitcher for him.

11 votes

I would trade Gomez, Milledge, and a pitcher for him, and then celebrate about how Beane was clearly bested in a deal!

6 votes

I wouldn't even trade 2 prospects for him.

15 votes

I would trade Gomez and Milledge for him.

26 votes

I would trade Gomez and a pitcher for him.

50 votes

108 votes | Poll has closed

Fun with Top 50 lists...

BobbyMac — Fri, 29 Dec 2006 20:36:54 -0000

I combined the top 50 from here, Baseball Digest Daily, and MiLB.com, weighting each the same. The list comes out as:

Alex Gordon
Delmon Young
Philip Hughes
Homer Bailey
Brandon Wood
Cameron Maybin
Justin Upton
Jay Bruce
Chris Young
Troy Tulowitzki
Billy Butler
Matt Garza
Andrew McCutchen
Evan Longoria
Adam Miller
Andy LaRoche
Yovani Gallardo
Mike Pelfrey
Carlos Gonzalez
Reid Brignac
Scott Elbert
Andrew Miller
Ryan Braun
Jose Tabata
Tim Lincecum
Fernando Martinez
Nick Adenhart
James Loney
Luke Hochevar
Adam Jones
Clayton Kershaw
Hunter Pence
Josh Fields
Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Jacoby Ellsbury
Jeff Clement
Elijah Dukes
Felix Pie
Jason Hirsh
Ian Stewart
Colby Rasmus
Daric Barton
Chris Iannetta
Adam Lind
Joey Votto
Jeff Niemann
John Danks
Erick Aybar
Chuck Lofgren
Brandon Erbe

Players in the top 50, which didn't make the combined list:
Community list: 3 (Clement, Aybar, Lofgren)
BDD: 5 (Dukes, Danks, Aybar, Lofgren, Erbe)
MiLB: 7 (Dukes, Rasmus, Iannetta, Lind, Votto, Neimann, Erbe)

Players with highest standard deviation among the lists:
Dukes, Clement, Aybar, Iannetta, Stewart, Fields.
==> I find it interesting that these are also some of the guys closest to being MLB-ready.

Players ranked on all 3 with the biggest high-low difference percentage:
Stewart, Hirsh, Salty, Fields, Barton, Kershaw

Guys the community ranked highly:
Wood, Butler, LaRoche, Lincecum, Hochevar, Dukes

Step back from the ledge for Christmas, M's fans!

BobbyMac — Tue, 26 Dec 2006 01:17:14 -0000

Hi all -

First post here. I hope you're all enjoying your Holidays! I've been an M's fan since Griffey's debut. I get the impression that I'm one of the few people who is actually somewhat optimistic about this season. Here are some excerpts from stuff I've posted at baseballhq.com regarding the team:

Re: post-Soriano bullpen [one of the paid staff at BHQ called the M's pen "razor thin"]:
I really think that "razor thin pen" is quite overblown. This was a tremendous bullpen last year, and while they lost 2 quality arms (Lowe, Soriano) and Fruto, I still think this pen will hold leads unless Putz completely collapses (a possibility, but not one I'd consider likely).

Sherrill has a huge L/R split, and is very good at his role as a Lefty Specialist (no relationship to the BHQ member, I assume :>).
<><>
Alright, having the projections in a spreadsheet allows me to do fun things like compute the weighted average BVP of the relievers on a team (I summed up all the sub-4.0 IP/G pitchers, and weighted by IP). For the current projection file, this is 74 for the Mariners. Actually, that it's that good shocks even me (my gut tells me it's around average, perhaps slightly better if some things work out right), as it's the 2nd-highest in the majors! (The team which comes out #1 is even more shocking)

Of course, the SP rotation (totaling 944 IP) averages only "47", which betters only COL, KC, and WAS. I guess that's expected, since they have been hoarding the sort of pitchers who often out-pitch their BPV's (i.e. low-K).

Note: BHQ has a system of values called BPV's, and 50+ is considered good enough to start, and 75+ good enough to close. It's a lot like "Stuff" ratings found elsewhere.

Re: Vidro deal (posted on baseballhq.com):
I really think that people are being pretty harsh on this deal for the M's. Consider:

In 1987, an oft-injured middle infielder was coming off seasons wherein he'd hit:

.297/.356/.408 (576 AB) [age 28]
.281/.340/.426 (437 AB) [age 29]

At this time, his career stats were: .291/.348/.418.

The next year, he hit .353/438/.566, finishing 5th in MVP voting. Spending significant time at DH for the first time (58 games), he still only managed 465 AB, probably keeping him from being higher in the MVP voting. As he played more frequently at DH later into his career, he became much less injury prone, and became a monster hitter, getting MVP votes in 6 other seasons.

Vidro's last two years:

.275/.339/.424 (309/30)
.289/.348/.395 (463/31)

At this time, his career stats are: .300/.363/.459.

Now, I'm not going to suggest that Vidro is going to hit like Paul Molitor after his move to DH, but this guy's been a quality hitter when healthy, and who's to say whether taking him out of the keystone won't be exactly what he needs? The daily abuse on catchers and 2bmen is brutal. And I think the TYPE of hitter Vidro is will play well in SAFECO. Signing righty power-hitting goombahs in Beltre and Sexson were the goofy moves, IMO, since building around players who are ill-suited for their home park seems illogical to me.

FWIW, Snelling, also, would have "fit" well into SAFECO, in my opinion. But - this never fails to get chuckles from the crowd - the Mariners are building a team to contend in 2007, and counting on a guy who has a history of missing so much time is very risky.
<><><>
Only time will tell, I guess. If the Vidro salary is the objectionable part, I can only argue that his career stats seem pretty nice to me. And besides, I haven't seen the M's make (or fail to make) moves based on money, so far. They seem to be getting the players they want, and paying them handsomely. I see Snelling and Fruto as flotsam that will provide only replacement-level play at the major-league level. Obviously, pitchers are tough to predict, so perhaps Fruto will do something, but I think he'll have to take a step up to get there. But let's level-set the players we're talking about here: Fruto didn't make either the BHQ org report, nor the John Sickels book last year at all. BHQ liked Snelling more than Sickels, rating him 10th in Seattle's org, while John gave him a "C", the lowest grade in the book. Coming off these not-great ratings, he proceeded to hit .216 with a .340 slugging in AAA, supposedly healthy for much of that time. Well, at least he hit .250 in the majors in 96 AB.

This deal was clearly a Vidro salary dump by the Nats, IMO. And even if Vidro doesn't improve, he's been worth 2.75 WARP1/season the past two years (two of his worst in his career, with his best being 8.0 and 7.7). So, they're paying his $6MM/yr. In an article, I suggested that $2MM/win is reasonable, and Tango's table assumes that teams pay $4MM/yr per win for free agents. So, he's either at about the right price, or very cheap.

[Someone had commented that Doyle should have just been used as DH instead of Vidro.]

By the way, I agree that Snelling should have been tried at DH if possible, and am baffled that the M's hadn't tried that before. I just think it would be ridiculous to do so at the MLB level, with as little as he's shown. Not every injury-prone hitter gets helped by playing DH, but some do. Molitor and Edgar Martinez were the first two that came to mind. I don't believe that Snelling has anywhere near the hitting skills to be a full-time MLB DH, though. BHQ projects a .265/.338/.397 line. Is that something worth getting worked up over? Much less playing at DH. His seemingly huge 2005 numbers were driven by [a BABIP] of 43%, and I don't trust them for a minute.

I thought the Soriano deal was quite reasonable, too. Starters the quality of Horacio Ramirez are pulling down $10MM/yr contracts now. I really don't understand why there is such widespread panning of this move. (see this article)