SB Nation User Blog: Bobomojo

Comparing Mauer

Bobomojo — Fri, 13 Mar 2009 15:52:21 -0000

Inspired by an interesting discussion over at Twins Geek, I put together a quick spreadsheet that compares Joe Mauer to a list of the great catchers of the past 60 years plus a few other active catchers. I don't really have any specific point to make, other than it's interesting to see how favorably Mauer stacks up to the all-time greats through each player's age-25 season.

For the comparison, I looked at: Bench, Berra, Carter, Fisk, Russ Martin, McCann, Piazza, Posada, Pudge Rodriguez, Ted Simmons, and Joe Torre. I also threw Jason Kendall in the mix, since he seems to have become the cautionary tale for those concerned about Mauer's future worth.

First, let's look at playing time through the age of 25, as measured by plate appearances:

Catcher	PA
Bench	3879
Simmons	3537
Rodriguez	3516
Torre	3103
Carter	2727
Mauer	2387
Kendall	2004
Berra	1925
McCann (24)	1819
Martin	1736
Posada	1365
Fisk	1126
Piazza	1117

Next, I used Baseball Prospectus' Batting Runs Above Replacement to examine the players' total offensive contributions through age 25, adjusted for league, park, era, etc. The second number is the players' BRAR per 100 PAs, which levels the field for playing time.

Catcher	BRAR	BRAR/100PA
Bench	270	6.96
Torre	264	8.51
Mauer	204	8.55
Rodriguez	146	4.15
Carter	138	5.06
Kendall	132	6.59
McCann (24)	129	7.09
Berra	116	6.03
Simmons	103	2.91
Martin	103	5.93
Piazza	100	8.95
Fisk	79	7.02
Posada	9	0.66

I then did the same comparison using WARP3, a rough measure of a player's total contribution to their team (offensive and defensive), again adjusted for era, league, park, etc.

Catcher	WARP3	WARP3/100PA
Bench	48.4	1.248
Rodriguez	40.2	1.143
Torre	34.6	1.115
Mauer	31.8	1.332
Simmons	30.9	0.874
Carter	26.3	0.964
Berra	21.5	1.117
Kendall	20.8	1.038
Martin	19.1	1.100
McCann (24)	17.8	0.979
Piazza	15.2	1.361
Fisk	13.3	1.181
Posada	0.7	0.051

Notice that Mauer actually ranks second in both BRAR and WARP3 when you adjust for playing time through age 25. He only loses out to Piazza, but it's important to note Piazza only had about half the PAs.

Finally, as a very crude measure of defensive value, I looked at each player's CS%. These are unadjusted numbers, and are comparing wildly different environments, so take it with a grain of salt.

Catcher	SB	CS	CS%
Bench	205	205	50.0%
Rodriguez	313	299	48.9%
Torre	183	135	42.5%
Carter	318	228	41.8%
Mauer	150	105	41.2%
Fisk	111	73	39.7%
Simmons	423	226	34.8%
Piazza	194	89	31.4%
Kendall	353	159	31.1%
Martin	223	96	30.1%
McCann (24)	255	72	22.0%
Posada	40	10	20.0%
Berra	N/A	N/A	N/A

I think there are some interesting observations to be made from looking at these charts, but I don't know that I need to make them. It's clear to me that through age-25, Mauer has positioned himself on a hall of fame track. However, if you look at the catchers who are actually selected to the hall of fame, they each play into their late 30s. This, obviously, is the biggest obstacle Mauer will face in moving from a great player in his 20s to a hall of famer in his 30s.

Oh, what the heck, I will make one observation. It seems that the Kendall comparisons may be a bit overstated, when you take into account offensive environments. League average offense when Kendall was in his early 20s was quite a bit higher than it has been in recent years, which depreciates Kendall's value when we make our adjustments. When you put the numbers in context, Mauer is considerably better offensively, and threw out a significantly higher number of base runners.

Is this the origin of the Twins' TC logo?

Bobomojo — Sat, 17 May 2008 17:09:23 -0000

Is this the origin of the Twins' TC logo?

2008 PECOTA

Bobomojo — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 17:56:27 -0000

Well, Baseball Prospectus subscribers got their first look at PECOTA's 2008 projections this weekend. Below are a couple of the projections I found interesting:

PECOTA sees decent years for Mauer and Morneau, but not tremendous ones:

Mauer: .295/.375/.420
Morneau: .271/.339/.465

These both seem very low to me. A sub 800 OPS for Mauer? An 804 OPS for Morneau? Considering the age and track record of both these hitters, I find this very surprising.

On the bright side:

Delmon Young: 294/329/458

A 787 OPS from a 22 year old outfielder with some defensive upside? Love it.

What about some of the new guys?:

Carlos Gomez: 249/302/358
Humber: 6.47 ERA (yikes!), 5.9 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 1.7 HR/9
Mulvey: 4.77 ERA, 4.4 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, .9 HR/9

I don't know how many of these I should post without risking angering the good folks at BP (god knows they deserve your subscription money). Just thought these were pretty interesting. I'll also add that looking at the offensive projections in the middle infield, it looks like we should at least consider using Casilla (264/317/340)/Tolbert (254/312/366)at second, Harris (and his questionable D) at SS, with Everett (235/275/320) filling in as a defensive replacement.

Morneau signs long-term deal

Bobomojo — Fri, 25 Jan 2008 18:35:32 -0000

The Strib is reporting Justin Morneau has inked a long-term deal with the Twins. Details aren't yet available, but will be released this afternoon.

See the story here:
http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/14355301.html

The Twins are set to announce this afternoon the signing of first baseman Justin Morneau to a long-term contract, according to team sources.

The Twins and Morneau agreed on a one-year, $7.4 million contract last week but resolved to restart talks on a long-term deal.

The goal behind last week's agreement was to avoid arbitration, with Morneau receiving a nice raise from the $4.5 million he made last year. After winning the AL MVP Award in 2006, Morneau hit a late-season slump in 2007 and finished with a .276 average, 31 homers and 111 RBI.

The Twins had the same goal last year when a long-term deal with Morneau was discussed in the offseason before the sides agreed on a one-year deal on Feb. 2 to avoid arbitration. The sides reopened negotiations shortly after pitchers and catchers reported in mid-February. Indications were that the deal left on the table in March was for four years and between $30 and $33 million, with an option for a fifth year. Today's deal is expected to surpass the one discussed last year.

Like Morneau, the Twins would like to sign arbitration-eligible outfielder Michael Cuddyer to a long-term contract. Cuddyer, who earned $3.5 million last season, has requested a $6.2 million salary for 2008, while the Twins filed for $4.7 million.

Cuddyer is the only Twin who is still eligible for arbitration hearings this spring. The club signed righthander Matt Guerrier to a one-year deal on Wednesday that avoided arbitration.

Shut down Mauer?

Bobomojo — Thu, 30 Aug 2007 16:06:19 -0000

With the Twins season (un)officially over and Joe "Not the Face of the Franchise" Mauer nursing a sore hamstring, I'm wondering if the Twins should think about changing his role for the rest of the 2007 season.

I don't think the Twins would shut him down for the rest of the year - unless the injury is worse than it appears - but what about taking him out of the starting catcher role for September? Start Redmond behind the plate, and use Joe as your full-time DH. Either Joe or Heintz could back-up Redmond.

In my mind, this seems like a prudent move to protect a valuable asset. I guess it could also look like prematurely throwing in the towel. Any thoughts?

Potential Trading Partner: Chicago Cubs

Bobomojo — Tue, 24 Jul 2007 04:38:49 -0000

Just what every blog needs in late July: another fan who thinks they could be a GM...

In trying to find potential trade partner for the Minnesota Twins, I started looking at the Cubs organization the other day. What I discovered is that they have several young, cheap players that could potentially fill some of the holes in the Twins lineup. Even better, these young, cheap players are actually sorta dispensable in the Cubs organization.

The first name is Matt Murton. I'm certainly not the first to suggest that Murton would be an excellent target for TR, but I have spent all summer (since the Cubs sent him down to AAA) telling anyone who'd listen that he'd be a perfect fit for the Twins. He's an athletic corner outfielder (one could even envision a player like him filling in at center, if need be), who has demonstrated good patience with solid power both in the minors and majors. Even better, the Cubs have publicly declared him trade bait, as he has been unable to squeeze into the Soriano/Pie/Floyd/Jones/Pagan outfield. Here's the lowdown on Murton: http://www.firstinning.com/players/Matt-Murton-a

The second target would be Mike Fontenot, who has played well in limited duty at second base this season. At 27, Fontenot is a little old to call a prospect, and he has lost a lot of playing time that past couple years to Ryan Theriot, who is a weaker hitter, but faster and can play shortstop. On the Cubs current roster, he is squeezed around Theriot and Mark DeRosa in the middle infield. For the Twins, he would represent a better bat than Castillo, as well as being far cheaper and younger. His addition would also allow us to delay handing the starting job to Alexi Casilla in 2008. Fontenot's stats are here: http://firstinning.com/players/Mike-Fontenot-a/

The final target is someone who was just called up the Cubs last week: Scott Moore. Moore actually is a legitimate prospect, a third baseman who is hammering AAA pitching at just 23. For the Cubs, he is trapped behind Aramis Ramirez, and can only hope to be used as a back up to Aramis and Derrek Lee in the near future. He's certainly a valuable commodity, but one would think given the Cubs roster, he's mostly valuable as trade bait. The upside for the Twins is obvious. He could be eased in as our starting third baseman, representing a huge step up from Punto and Brian Buscher. And, like Murton and Fontenot, he's cheap, and could wear a Twins uniform for a number of seasons. Here's his stats: http://firstinning.com/players/Scott-Moore-b/.

So, now that I've babbled on for far too long about three fairly random Cubs, here is the question I wanted to put out to fans in Twinkie Town. Could you envision a trade involving Joe Nathan for two or all three of these players? Trading Nathan would obviously be a dramatic blow to the bullpen, but we do have another relief ace in the pen. It would also give us a good corner outfield bat, an offensive upgrade at second once Castillo is gone, and a major boost at third base. It would also give us three major league ready position players - none of whom are terribly important to the Cubs long-term plan - who could all be starters for the Twins in 2008, 2009, and maybe even beyond. I think a move like this would be a major step forward for rebuilding our positional strength and providing depth to our lineup. It would also be a big step towards creating salary space for the upcoming contract talks with Torii, Johan, etc. I would love to hear what you think.

A Birthday Present for Jesse

Bobomojo — Sat, 16 Jun 2007 05:26:18 -0000

Happy B-Day, dude! Ladies and gentleman, Jesse's favorite tune:

Lip Gloss lyrics

Lil mama
Yeah it's poppin, it's poppin, it's poppin, it's poppin.
I gotta ask 'em, 'cause if i don't
It's poppin, it's poppin, it's poppin, it's poppin

[Hook:]
What you know 'bout me?
What you
What you
What you know 'bout me?
What you know 'bout me?
What you
What you
What you know?
They say my lip gloss is cool
My lip gloss be popping
I'm standing at my locker
And all the boys keep stopping
What you know 'bout me?
What you
What you
What you know 'bout me?
What you know 'bout me?
What you
What you
What you know?
They say my lip gloss is popping
My lip gloss is cool
All the boys keep jocking
They chase me after school

[Verse 1:]
Mac mac Lorial yep 'cause I'm worth it
Love the way I put it on so perfect
Wipe the corners of my mouth so I work it
When I walk down the hallway they can't say nothing
Oh oh oh my lips so luscious
The way I spice it up with the mac mac brushes
Lorial got the most watermelon crushes
That's probably is the why these boys got crushes...

[Hook]

[Verse 2:]
When it's time for lunch
My lips still rock
Lil mama melon with the hot pink top
Cherry, vanilla,
Flavors is a virtual they
Loving, lip gloss universal
They boys really like it the girls don't speak
They rolling they eyes
They lip gloss cheap
It ain't my fought
But I upgrade ya
Show you how to use nice things with nice flavors

[Hook]

[Breakdown:]
'Cause My lip gloss
Is popping is popping
Is popping is popping
'Cause my lip gloss
Is popping is popping
Is popping is popping

[Verse 3:]
sittin' in 8th period
Thought I was in trouble
Dean called me on the loudspeaker on the double
I stepped in her office like
"Yes Ms. McClarkson?"
"She like girl ran out of my lip gloss and
Write down where you get yours from
'Cause I must admit
That bubblegum
Is popping, is popping
Is popping she ain't fronting
And uh
I be loving it
I be I be loving it and uh
I be using it I be I be using it and uh
I be rubbing it I be I be rubbing it on my lips
My lips my lip gloss

[Hook]

Twins Projections

Bobomojo — Fri, 15 Dec 2006 17:35:45 -0000

Baseball Think Factory has posted the new ZIPs projections for the 2007 Twins. While I don't trust ZIPs as much as PECOTA, it still makes for good off-season dreaming.

You can see the projections here:
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2007_zips_projections_minnesota_twins/

ZIPs doesn't seem to like Cuddyer's chances at picking up where he left off in 2006: 265/348/463.

Secret Sauce

Bobomojo — Mon, 02 Oct 2006 14:52:59 -0000

In a recent book by the writers/editors of Baseball Prospectus, an examination was made regarding what regular season skills/tendencies Major League teams have that correlate to success in the postseason. In other words, what do teams do well in the first 162 games that have a strong correlation to winning in October?

The 3 strongest correlations they could find were a great closer, a pitching staff with a high strikeout rate, and great team defense. The Baseball Prospectus website tracks each team's rank in these categories, and then lists each team in order of their total ranking in these 3 categories. Here are how the playoff teams rank:

Twins - 2nd in baseball (Blue Jays are #1)
Mets - 4th
Detroit - 7th
Yankees - 10th
San Diego - 11th
Oakland - 13th
Dodgers - 17th
St. Louis - 23rd

Now, keep in mind that they use an entire seasons worth of data, so late season roster changes are not accounted for (i.e. Pedro's K rate counts for the Mets, Castro and Batista's defense counts for the Twins, as does Liriano's K rate). I would also point out that the Baseball Prospectus defensive metric - fielding runs above average - is highly suspect (as compared to play-by-play defensive data). That being said, I think we can all agree that if a great closer, high strikeout rates, and good team defense means a higher chance of success in October, the Twins are certainly well positioned.

Bad news on the Liriano front

Bobomojo — Wed, 13 Sep 2006 17:53:38 -0000

Liriano just left the game in the 3rd. He retired the first 6, gave up a hit to Swisher, threw a pitch to Kielty, and the training staff rushed out to take him off the field. Garza's now pitching.

Fingers crossed as we wait for word how bad this injury is. He was looking great until they took him off the field.

Not good.