Our new DC had just one year as a DC under his belt, with a Florida team that was pretty bad based on their standard.

Although he joined way too late to recruit, he was there to coach, so here are the numbers on how his team did, in parenthesis, are your Texas Longhorn numbers to compare.

Continue reading this post »

For raw data, see here - http://tiny.cc/utvsatm2k9

Information was collected from cfbstats.com and web1.ncaa.org and a little from ESPN.

Continue reading this post »

I got this idea from something said on the radio the other day, and so I wanted to run some numbers and see what I got.  The basic premise is, do you really need to run the football effectively to win a game?  The old idea is ground control, clock control, less turnovers, manageable third downs and all the other great things that come from a successful run game.

But is that idea out of date?  What does it really take to win games now, today (or in this case, last year) in the Big 12?

Continue reading this post »

Ok just one more game to go.  So lets look at it.

Again for any new comers, the NCAA record is 73.6% set by Dante Culpepper.

Colt is currently sitting at 77.6%

The nearest competitor Chase Daniel is currently sitting at 73.97%

Graham Harrell is the only other dude in the NCAA above 70%, but as in everything else, Tech is just a distant 3rd with no shot at the crown.

Colt averages 31.25 attempts per game this year (we will call it 31).  To set the record, Colt would need to complete 9... yes... 9 of those 31 passes against Ohio State. 8 may even technically do it, but 9/31 (29% completion rate) would net him a season long 73.9%

So how likely is Colt to get 29% or better?

• His worst game EVER completion wise put him at 12/28 against NU last year.  This was good for 42.9%
• tOSU allows for 55% completion on the year, which is good.  OU also allows 55% against arguably stiffer passing competition in the big 12.
• 4 "Quality" QBs against tOSU - Juice Williams (17/26 65%), Mike Kafka (17/28  61%), Kirk Cousins (18/25  72%), Andre Weber (23/36  64%) -- does anyone think any of these guys is better than Colt?  Or that their receivers are better than Quan and Ship?
• 4 "Quality" Defenses against Colt - OU (28/35  80%), OSU (38/45  84%), TTU (20/34  59%), CU (23/30  77%)

Very freaking likely in my opinion.

Lastly, lets take a quick look at Colt's competition.

Chase - His last 4 games he is 108/160  for 67.5% completion rate.  He averages 37.23 attempts a game (again lets make it 37).  If Chase goes 37/37 and throws a perfect game against Northwestern, he will end the season at 75.8%, which Colt would beat with a 19/32 (59.4%) performance, which would right at his worst performance of the year.

I'll restate for emphasis, if Chase throws a perfect game, and Colt basically matches his worst game, Colt will finish with a higher completion percentage.

It only gets worse for Harrell, if Graham throws a perfect 47/47 (his season average attempts per game) then he ties Dante Culpepper at 73.6%

Our boy is all growns up, and hes going to get the record.

I see it being brought up that Bob runs up the score, and that Mack is super classy, and while I dont disagree with either assessment, I thought it would be a good idea to actually get into the numbers of this season, and to see what we are looking at.

First, all the data was collected from ESPN, to the best of my ability.  The time left in the game is representative of when the first offensive series started without the starting QB playing.   Its my assertion that you usually see second team offense before you see second team defense, and that calling off the O is a better indicator of running up the score or not.  Whether you agree with these assumptions or not, they are how I gathered my data, and I was consistant for each school.

First, lets look in the mirror, and see what Texas has done this year.

Continue reading this post »

Well Colt has his worst game of the year completion percentage wise against Texas Tech, but even through he only completed 20 for 34 (58.8%) he is still on pace for a brush with history.

Another note to make, is that should the 7 dropped balls be completions, Colt would have gone 27 for 34 (79.4%) and been right on where he has been.  C'est la vie (shit happens if you don't speak French, or close enough anyway).

So where does Colt stand now?

Well there are 3 regular season games left, and a max potential of 5.  But first lets look at where we have been.

The Longhorns first 9 opponents have allowed an average of 60.5% completion from opposing quarterbacks.  If we take out Colt's games against them, they have allowed 58.4%  If you want to talk all around rating, the previous opponents allow an average of  132 QB rating, which seems high, and is, when you notice that Rice and UTEP combine to allow 53 TDS through the air (no one else has allowed more than 17).  If we take those two out, the other 7 teams average 126.

Colt currently stands at damn near 79.0% completion rate.  Once again, the record is 73.6%.

Assuming Colt throws as many times per game as he currently has, he will need to average 57.61% through the next three games to beat the mark for the regular season, and 64.29% through the next 5 games, to officially set the record.

The teams we have left?

They average giving up 62.7% completions, and overall QB rating of 130.

In summary, Colt is still in great shape, and overall, our passing D ahead of us is still easier than those behind us.  For as low as his stats were against Tech, Robo-Colt was mostly on target, and I dont expect us to be in that kind of environment (or first half funk - 7 for 15 in the first half, 13 for 19 in the second) again.

Colt is still headed for history, I'll check in after BU to update the numbers once again.

Side note:  Chase Daniel is on pace to break the record as well.  He is currently sitting at 77.2% completion, with his 3 final opponents allowing 61.7% completions, so its still a pretty close race with Chase.  Colt has the slight adavantage right now, but its something to keep an eye on as well.

Stats for the two teams over the past three games.  OSU began the year blowing away opponents, and making a name for themselves, while Texas got off to a solid start of their own.

Which is great, they each find themselves entering the weekend undefeated, but how have they done lately?

OSU's three most recent opponents are Baylor and aTm at home, Mizzou on the road.

Texas has had CU on the road, OU in Dallas, and Mizzou at home.

While I wont make any qualifications of what I think of the comparative strength of schedules, Ill just go ahead and stick with the facts.

via eminent.omgbbq.com

While it looks fairly even, I like our ball control to win out.  We have a significant edge on First Downs, third down conversions, and time of possession, all of which are related of course.  OSU as well has only had one game without a turnover, to the men of Troy (not USC, just Troy).  Texas has had 3 turnover free games, including the last two.

I'm about as big of a Colt supporter as you can find around here, but even I thoroughly believed he could not keep up his performance once we got to conference games.  When are you completing 4 out of every 5 passes, no team is going to stop you.  It doesn't matter if they are short, long, or in between, you can score on anyone.

Then we came into conference play, and so far so good.  Colt is actually completing a higher percentage of his passes now (82%) than he did when we had Irby and were playing the weaker schedule (80%).

I still don't think it can last, history tells us its not possible, but then, you look at what we have ahead and who is behind, and begin to wonder if that is true.  The highest completion percentage in the history of the NCAA was Dante Culpepper in 1998 with 73.6%, who beat Steve Young's 15 year record of 71.3%.   Stephan Lefours came very close to Dante with a 73.54%, but the record still stands.

Assuming Colt throws the same average number of passes per game as he has through the first 7, he only needs to complete 63.12% of his passes from here on out, and he will set the single season record (excluding whoever else is challenging it this year as well).

You read that right, if he only completes 63.12% of his passes against defenses such as Baylor, aTm, TTech, Kansas, and OSU, he will set the single season mark and against a real bonafide quality schedule.

How likely is it that Colt will dip so very low?

In his 33 games as a starter, Colt has gone below 63.12% passing only 6 times. His second game ever as a college QB against tOSU (59.4%).  Then against OU, and aTm in 2006, he had 61.1% and 60.7%.

Three games in 2007 saw him below 65%.  One was the unquestionably abysmal K-State game (48.7%), that I still shake my head over, the others were the  Aggie loss (53.1%) and the Nebraska fiasco (42.9%). 

In 27 of his 33 games played at the collegiate level, he has been over 63.12% accurate.

Here as well is what the opposing defenses we have left are giving up, on average:

OSU - 56.5%

Ttech - 63.4%

BU - 61.8%

KU - 55.12%

aTm - 67.9%

Average - 60.94%

Teams we have already played average - 58.18%

Teams already played, minus Colts beatdown of them - 55.08%

So keep your eyes open folks, Colt is making history right in front of them.

Continue reading this post »

Colt McCoy thus far is completing 75% of his passes, has 7 touchdowns to a single pick.  His passer efficiency of 185.2 (CFB stat) is right at the single season record (186.0 - Colt Brennan in 2006) thus far.  While I don't think there is any way he maintains this pace, we can still look at what he is doing with some (limited) historical perspective.

I started looking up numbers to respond to a comment, but I decided I might as well bring this up as its own post.

So to put a little perspective on the passing game thus far, I looked at all our starts in this decade (or shall I say, MILLENIA!?!?), and only five other years dare to even compete.

1. Major Applewhite - 2000 - Majors last year that he started a significant number of games.  The man was the most prolific passer that UT had ever seen.
2. Chris Simms - 2002 - Pedigree senior QB with quite possibly the best receivers we will ever have at UT.
3. Chance Mock - 2003 - After Simms left, Chance turned out to be an incredibly efficient QB with still the same amazing receiving core that Chris enjoyed.  He never got a chance to show us too much, as we all know who followed.
4. Vince Young - 2005 - More refined gameplan, and more experience with the zone read, 2005 was the offense people dream about.
5. Colt McCoy - 2006 - The low expectations coming into the year yielded an amazing freshman campaign through the air that no one expected.  

Continue reading this post »

The second week of college football is nearly upon us, and with it will come twice the information that we have already, and three times the speculation. But right here, and right now, I find myself deep in the throes of optimism.  The remaining teams on our schedule are listed below, with some commentary based on what happened the first week.

• UTEP

They lost to Buffalo.  They had a pass-centric game with an underclassmen who is not as good as Rusty Smith.  UTEP gave up two sacks to Buffalo, and if those in the know think our zero in the sack column last week was due to good coaching/senior play, then we should rack up the hits in this game.  Once we start hitting Trevor, this game goes downhill for them real fast.

Continue reading this post »

This is kind of off topic, but oh well, I thought people might enjoy it irregardless.

With Soul Calibur 4 recently coming out, and Street Fighter 4 and Street Fighter 2 HD on the horizon, I wanted to make an arcade quality stick for Xbox360.

So I went to create a Texas themed stick I called "Texas Fight", due both to the cheer you all know so well, and the pugilistic nature of the games for which it is designed to be used.

So anyway, here was the process.

Or if all you want is the end result, here are the final pics:

http://omgbbq.com/hirez/tfight360_files/image050.jpg

http://omgbbq.com/hirez/tfight360_files/image052.jpg

http://omgbbq.com/hirez/tfight360_files/image054.jpg

Story!

Basically some Austinite 'Braska fan made a fake Oklahoman page saying that Sam Bradford and Landry Jones (?) were involved in Matt Jones type activities.

The real newspaper with the fake sounding website (News?  Okay!  ...dot com) got to him first as he pulled it down, but the dad now wants legal action.

Im a little confused by the story I must admit.   I can understand the Oklahoman asking to cease and desist using their template, but if people can start suing for crap that people make up and post on the internet on informal forums, well that would be bad.

For one, Elisha and Tara would be after me... what can I say, sex sells!  But if anyone was fooled by dude's fake story, as they were too dumb to notice that the address bar did not read like an overenthusiastic periodical, is that really his fault?

Note:  Elisha never wore that shirt, and Tara is not really 12' tall and sitting on my half wall, waiting for you to play Golden Tee.  Please don't sue me ladies.

Yeah, Im bored at work, and thirsty for more football discussion.  Unfortunately my work place is a barren expanse with no football fans of any consequence in sight.

So I bring a fairly lame topic here to generate some more discussion to fuel my purely selfish needs.

Here is my UT all-star team, sprinkled with some players I respected as opponents.  I roughly kept it to the past 10 years, so sorry, no Tyler Rose.

Your charge:  Find specific positions you disagree with, and support an alternative candidate from within the past 10 years, with facts, pictures, video, or inane discourse.  Then subject your choices along with mine own to your peers for ridicule and rebuttal.

Offense:

QB - Vince

RB - Ricky, backed up by Quinten Griffin

FB - Jovarski Lane; Tell me he couldnt excel here.

WR1 - Roy Williams

WR2 - Rashaun Woods; push off specialist, hell of a college receiver

WR3 - Wes Welker; Running back in College I know, but anywhere else he would have made a hell of a receiver.

OL - Not much flash here, but as long as Kasey Studdard is there, Im happy

TE1 - David Thomas

TE2 - Martellus Bennett

Random Offensive Sub1 - Ramonce Taylor

Random Offensive Sub2 - Darren Sproles

Defense:

DT - Tommie Harris

DT - Shaun Rodgers

DE - Corey Redding

DE - Tim Crowder

LB1 - Derrick Johnson

LB2 - DD Lewis

LB3 - Dan Cody

SS - Roy Williams

FS - Josh Bullocks

CB1 - Terrance Newman

CB2 - Michael Huff

I had this conversation the other day with Meekrob, but thought it was a good enough conversation piece to bring up here for some more opinions.

The question is, which would have been our best what-if team of the Barnes era?

The choices include, but are not limited to:

Continue reading this post »

I'll admit it, I'm an engineer.

As such, I tend to lend more credence to statistics than probably most of the people out there.

That said, I found myself looking to compare the national championship Horns, to Colt's horns.  No one gets more credit (Vince) or more blame (Colt) for the performance of the team than the quarterback, but Football, perhaps more than any other sport, is a team sport.

Here is the data - absolute numbers are averages per instance or per game, depending on the stat, and in parenthesis is the national rank.

Continue reading this post »