For raw data, see here - http://tiny.cc/utvsatm2k9

Information was collected from cfbstats.com and web1.ncaa.org and a little from ESPN.

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I got this idea from something said on the radio the other day, and so I wanted to run some numbers and see what I got.  The basic premise is, do you really need to run the football effectively to win a game?  The old idea is ground control, clock control, less turnovers, manageable third downs and all the other great things that come from a successful run game.

But is that idea out of date?  What does it really take to win games now, today (or in this case, last year) in the Big 12?

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Ok just one more game to go.  So lets look at it.

Again for any new comers, the NCAA record is 73.6% set by Dante Culpepper.

Colt is currently sitting at 77.6%

The nearest competitor Chase Daniel is currently sitting at 73.97%

Graham Harrell is the only other dude in the NCAA above 70%, but as in everything else, Tech is just a distant 3rd with no shot at the crown.

Colt averages 31.25 attempts per game this year (we will call it 31).  To set the record, Colt would need to complete 9... yes... 9 of those 31 passes against Ohio State. 8 may even technically do it, but 9/31 (29% completion rate) would net him a season long 73.9%

So how likely is Colt to get 29% or better?

• His worst game EVER completion wise put him at 12/28 against NU last year.  This was good for 42.9%
• tOSU allows for 55% completion on the year, which is good.  OU also allows 55% against arguably stiffer passing competition in the big 12.
• 4 "Quality" QBs against tOSU - Juice Williams (17/26 65%), Mike Kafka (17/28  61%), Kirk Cousins (18/25  72%), Andre Weber (23/36  64%) -- does anyone think any of these guys is better than Colt?  Or that their receivers are better than Quan and Ship?
• 4 "Quality" Defenses against Colt - OU (28/35  80%), OSU (38/45  84%), TTU (20/34  59%), CU (23/30  77%)

Very freaking likely in my opinion.

Lastly, lets take a quick look at Colt's competition.

Chase - His last 4 games he is 108/160  for 67.5% completion rate.  He averages 37.23 attempts a game (again lets make it 37).  If Chase goes 37/37 and throws a perfect game against Northwestern, he will end the season at 75.8%, which Colt would beat with a 19/32 (59.4%) performance, which would right at his worst performance of the year.

I'll restate for emphasis, if Chase throws a perfect game, and Colt basically matches his worst game, Colt will finish with a higher completion percentage.

It only gets worse for Harrell, if Graham throws a perfect 47/47 (his season average attempts per game) then he ties Dante Culpepper at 73.6%

Our boy is all growns up, and hes going to get the record.

I see it being brought up that Bob runs up the score, and that Mack is super classy, and while I dont disagree with either assessment, I thought it would be a good idea to actually get into the numbers of this season, and to see what we are looking at.

First, all the data was collected from ESPN, to the best of my ability.  The time left in the game is representative of when the first offensive series started without the starting QB playing.   Its my assertion that you usually see second team offense before you see second team defense, and that calling off the O is a better indicator of running up the score or not.  Whether you agree with these assumptions or not, they are how I gathered my data, and I was consistant for each school.

First, lets look in the mirror, and see what Texas has done this year.

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