SB Nation User Blog: BoddickerIsClutch

Rick Barnes on Jim Rome Today

BoddickerIsClutch — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 18:49:47 -0000

Rick Barnes on Jim Rome Today

Nothing incredibly exciting, but here's to getting some good karma!

TJ Ties Career High In Points, with 5 Turnovers to go with it.

BoddickerIsClutch — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 14:36:50 -0000

TJ Ties Career High In Points, with 5 Turnovers to go with it.

If you haven't been following TJ in Indiana, hes slowly getting back to form after his back injury. His quickness is almost back to what it was, and every game he has several of those wonderful moments where he makes the defense just look absolutely silly. Good luck TJ, stay healthy.

Final Post On Colt and Completion Percentage

BoddickerIsClutch — Mon, 08 Dec 2008 21:36:14 -0000

Ok just one more game to go. So lets look at it.

Again for any new comers, the NCAA record is 73.6% set by Dante Culpepper.

Colt is currently sitting at 77.6%

The nearest competitor Chase Daniel is currently sitting at 73.97%

Graham Harrell is the only other dude in the NCAA above 70%, but as in everything else, Tech is just a distant 3rd with no shot at the crown.

Colt averages 31.25 attempts per game this year (we will call it 31). To set the record, Colt would need to complete 9... yes... 9 of those 31 passes against Ohio State. 8 may even technically do it, but 9/31 (29% completion rate) would net him a season long 73.9%

So how likely is Colt to get 29% or better?

His worst game EVER completion wise put him at 12/28 against NU last year. This was good for 42.9%
tOSU allows for 55% completion on the year, which is good. OU also allows 55% against arguably stiffer passing competition in the big 12.
4 "Quality" QBs against tOSU - Juice Williams (17/26 65%), Mike Kafka (17/28 61%), Kirk Cousins (18/25 72%), Andre Weber (23/36 64%) -- does anyone think any of these guys is better than Colt? Or that their receivers are better than Quan and Ship?
4 "Quality" Defenses against Colt - OU (28/35 80%), OSU (38/45 84%), TTU (20/34 59%), CU (23/30 77%)

Very freaking likely in my opinion.

Lastly, lets take a quick look at Colt's competition.

Chase - His last 4 games he is 108/160 for 67.5% completion rate. He averages 37.23 attempts a game (again lets make it 37). If Chase goes 37/37 and throws a perfect game against Northwestern, he will end the season at 75.8%, which Colt would beat with a 19/32 (59.4%) performance, which would right at his worst performance of the year.

I'll restate for emphasis, if Chase throws a perfect game, and Colt basically matches his worst game, Colt will finish with a higher completion percentage.

It only gets worse for Harrell, if Graham throws a perfect 47/47 (his season average attempts per game) then he ties Dante Culpepper at 73.6%

Our boy is all growns up, and hes going to get the record.

Ahmard Hall on Jim Rome Show

BoddickerIsClutch — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 19:51:53 -0000

Ahmard Hall on Jim Rome Show

Good interview, great guy, proud Texas alum of which every Texas alum should be proud.

QB Gametime and running up the score. OU vs TX

BoddickerIsClutch — Tue, 25 Nov 2008 20:11:32 -0000

I see it being brought up that Bob runs up the score, and that Mack is super classy, and while I dont disagree with either assessment, I thought it would be a good idea to actually get into the numbers of this season, and to see what we are looking at.

First, all the data was collected from ESPN, to the best of my ability. The time left in the game is representative of when the first offensive series started without the starting QB playing. Its my assertion that you usually see second team offense before you see second team defense, and that calling off the O is a better indicator of running up the score or not. Whether you agree with these assumptions or not, they are how I gathered my data, and I was consistant for each school.

First, lets look in the mirror, and see what Texas has done this year.

eminent.omgbbq.com

A brief explanation. The first column is at what time I determined they left the field (time left in the game), the second column is that number fixed to a base 10 decimal in minutes (ie against UTEP Colt played for 50 minutes 37 seconds, or 50.62 minutes). Points scored is how many were on the board when the starter left followed by what the lead was at the time. Then comes final score, final margin of victory, and then the difference between those numbers.

On the bottom, we have a full average (every game), not full (only the games where less than 60 minutes were played) and then a 6 minute break point (only the games where the QB didnt start a drive with more than 6 minutes, or two possible offensive drives, hereunto called the meaningful games).

As you can see, we increased our point total after pulling Colt on 5 games, but in only two of these games did we increase our margin of victory. Against BU we gave up MOV points, and CU scored while we didnt.

Colt was meaningfully pulled (6 min row) with an average of 11:45 to go in the fourth, and a 31 point lead. On average in those games, we scored 5.4 more points, and increased our MOV by 1.4 before time expired.

Now lets look at OU's numbers:

via eminent.omgbbq.com

OU scored in only 2 games after pulling Bradford, only once increasing their MOV. In 5 games, their MOV went down after taking Sam out.

If we use the same 6 min row, we see that Sam left basically at the start of the 4th, with a lead of 45 points, at which point the Sooners averaged an additional 2.8 points, while decreasing their MOV by 2.8.

I included a 4 min row here, in case people call my 6 minute point into question.

So what conclusions are to be drawn? Well, at first glance you could say that Bob runs it up, as he only takes Sam out when they have a lead of roughly 45 points. However, I would like to counteract that argument with the following points.

Its my beleif, that you are always entitled to three quarters of football. I cant really find fault in letting your starting team play 75% of the game, no matter the score. The data indicates that when meaningfully pulled, Sam has averaged only 3 quarters of play. That would negate the lead argument in my eyes.
The utter lack of scoring after Sam has been pulled. OU has had more time without Sam than we have without Colt, however they have scored less, and given up more. That is not indicitive of someone who is running up the score.

That said, I would also mitigate those points with these points:

Its quite possible that Mack simply has a superior second unit on both sides of the ball. Neither team has excessive numbers after the QB has been pulled, the excuse for Texas' greater averages could just be the result talent or preparation.
The average lead being lower for Texas could also be an indicator in faith in the defensive unit, or Bob's lack thereof. 4 meaningful games for Texas COlt was pulled with a lead in the high 20s, while Bradford was not pulled from a meaningful game without a lead in the 40s.

At any rate the final conclusion that I draw is that there is no conclusion. If you are in agreement that any team should be allowed to play for 3 quarters, then you should also agree that Bob has not run up the score this year. His starting QB has been pulled across the board fairly appropriately, and he failed to score afterwards.

Feel free to review and draw any other conclusions that I missed.

Colt's Completion Percentage Update

BoddickerIsClutch — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 22:30:35 -0000

Well Colt has his worst game of the year completion percentage wise against Texas Tech, but even through he only completed 20 for 34 (58.8%) he is still on pace for a brush with history.

Another note to make, is that should the 7 dropped balls be completions, Colt would have gone 27 for 34 (79.4%) and been right on where he has been. C'est la vie (shit happens if you don't speak French, or close enough anyway).

So where does Colt stand now?

Well there are 3 regular season games left, and a max potential of 5. But first lets look at where we have been.

The Longhorns first 9 opponents have allowed an average of 60.5% completion from opposing quarterbacks. If we take out Colt's games against them, they have allowed 58.4% If you want to talk all around rating, the previous opponents allow an average of 132 QB rating, which seems high, and is, when you notice that Rice and UTEP combine to allow 53 TDS through the air (no one else has allowed more than 17). If we take those two out, the other 7 teams average 126.

Colt currently stands at damn near 79.0% completion rate. Once again, the record is 73.6%.

Assuming Colt throws as many times per game as he currently has, he will need to average 57.61% through the next three games to beat the mark for the regular season, and 64.29% through the next 5 games, to officially set the record.

The teams we have left?

They average giving up 62.7% completions, and overall QB rating of 130.

In summary, Colt is still in great shape, and overall, our passing D ahead of us is still easier than those behind us. For as low as his stats were against Tech, Robo-Colt was mostly on target, and I dont expect us to be in that kind of environment (or first half funk - 7 for 15 in the first half, 13 for 19 in the second) again.

Colt is still headed for history, I'll check in after BU to update the numbers once again.

Side note: Chase Daniel is on pace to break the record as well. He is currently sitting at 77.2% completion, with his 3 final opponents allowing 61.7% completions, so its still a pretty close race with Chase. Colt has the slight adavantage right now, but its something to keep an eye on as well.

Lee Corso talks Football On Jim Rome Show

BoddickerIsClutch — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 18:27:51 -0000

Lee Corso talks Football On Jim Rome Show

They talk Texas v. Texas Tech at the beginning of the interview. Sounds like Corso is leaning toward Tech, good for us. Rome picked Texas earlier in the show, but who cares, unless we get some karma....

Thats great, but what have you done for me lately?

BoddickerIsClutch — Tue, 21 Oct 2008 17:46:23 -0000

Stats for the two teams over the past three games. OSU began the year blowing away opponents, and making a name for themselves, while Texas got off to a solid start of their own.

Which is great, they each find themselves entering the weekend undefeated, but how have they done lately?

OSU's three most recent opponents are Baylor and aTm at home, Mizzou on the road.

Texas has had CU on the road, OU in Dallas, and Mizzou at home.

While I wont make any qualifications of what I think of the comparative strength of schedules, Ill just go ahead and stick with the facts.

via eminent.omgbbq.com

While it looks fairly even, I like our ball control to win out. We have a significant edge on First Downs, third down conversions, and time of possession, all of which are related of course. OSU as well has only had one game without a turnover, to the men of Troy (not USC, just Troy). Texas has had 3 turnover free games, including the last two.

Colt's Completion Percentage - History in the making

BoddickerIsClutch — Tue, 21 Oct 2008 13:28:46 -0000

I'm about as big of a Colt supporter as you can find around here, but even I thoroughly believed he could not keep up his performance once we got to conference games. When are you completing 4 out of every 5 passes, no team is going to stop you. It doesn't matter if they are short, long, or in between, you can score on anyone.

Then we came into conference play, and so far so good. Colt is actually completing a higher percentage of his passes now (82%) than he did when we had Irby and were playing the weaker schedule (80%).

I still don't think it can last, history tells us its not possible, but then, you look at what we have ahead and who is behind, and begin to wonder if that is true. The highest completion percentage in the history of the NCAA was Dante Culpepper in 1998 with 73.6%, who beat Steve Young's 15 year record of 71.3%. Stephan Lefours came very close to Dante with a 73.54%, but the record still stands.

Assuming Colt throws the same average number of passes per game as he has through the first 7, he only needs to complete 63.12% of his passes from here on out, and he will set the single season record (excluding whoever else is challenging it this year as well).

You read that right, if he only completes 63.12% of his passes against defenses such as Baylor, aTm, TTech, Kansas, and OSU, he will set the single season mark and against a real bonafide quality schedule.

How likely is it that Colt will dip so very low?

In his 33 games as a starter, Colt has gone below 63.12% passing only 6 times. His second game ever as a college QB against tOSU (59.4%). Then against OU, and aTm in 2006, he had 61.1% and 60.7%.

Three games in 2007 saw him below 65%. One was the unquestionably abysmal K-State game (48.7%), that I still shake my head over, the others were the Aggie loss (53.1%) and the Nebraska fiasco (42.9%).

In 27 of his 33 games played at the collegiate level, he has been over 63.12% accurate.

Here as well is what the opposing defenses we have left are giving up, on average:

OSU - 56.5%

Ttech - 63.4%

BU - 61.8%

KU - 55.12%

aTm - 67.9%

Average - 60.94%

Teams we have already played average - 58.18%

Teams already played, minus Colts beatdown of them - 55.08%

So keep your eyes open folks, Colt is making history right in front of them.

Edit: As noted in the comments, the Conference Championship game and the Bowl game will most likely be counted toward his statistical totals.

This changes to make Colt need to complete 66% of his passes throughout the next 7 games (assuming we win the South) to beat Dante's mark in 14 games played, averaging as many throws per game as he has thus far.

This number is still well within his reach given the data shown above, and that Colts career completion percentage is above the 66% average (69.5%), even if you dont count this years ridiculous totals (66.4%).

Major Applewhite Interview on Jim Rome

BoddickerIsClutch — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 17:27:53 -0000

Major Applewhite Interview on Jim Rome

Who doesn't love Major?