SB Nation User Blog: BoddickerIsClutch

Mack Brown on Mike and Mike

BoddickerIsClutch — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 13:46:52 -0000

Mack Brown on Mike and Mike

Mack on the radio 12 minutes after Stoops. I didnt listen to Stoops, but here is Mack's interview, about what you expect, pretty vanilla stuff.

What does it take to win?

BoddickerIsClutch — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 18:29:53 -0000

I got this idea from something said on the radio the other day, and so I wanted to run some numbers and see what I got. The basic premise is, do you really need to run the football effectively to win a game? The old idea is ground control, clock control, less turnovers, manageable third downs and all the other great things that come from a successful run game.

But is that idea out of date? What does it really take to win games now, today (or in this case, last year) in the Big 12?

The one advantage the NFL has over college is the relative parity in the league. Sure, some teams are better than others, but all are populated by extremely talented players, and genuinely capable coaches. The disparity in college ball is far larger.

So for this review, I took Texas, OU, Tech, Ok State, Mizzou, KU, and Nebraska as my representatives. The games I looked at were all the intermatches between these teams. For more data points, I also tossed in any out of conference games against quality opponents, including bowl games.

Here is what I found. The team that wins...

Gets the most first downs 80% of the time.

Has a higher 3rd down conversion rate 88% of the time.

Outgains the other team 88% of the time.

Out passes the other team 56% of the time.

Out runs the other team 72% of the time.

Has less penalties called against them 72% of the time.

Has less penalty yards 72% of the time.

Gets more turnovers 56% of the time.

Wins the time of possession battle 68% of the time.

Obviously there is some correlation here. Those teams that get the most yards will usually have the most first downs and therefore time of possession. Less penalties also goes toward that end as they can kill drives. In what was certainly a pass happy league, the passing yards were just about a wash. This is most likely due to teams that are behind resulting to the pass to try and catch up, skewing the losing teams stats closer to the middle.

Other items of note:

Only one team won without getting either more first downs or a better 3rd down conversion rate, that was Missouri against Northwestern. (Winner had a special teams TD)
In conference play, the only winner (out of 15 games) to not have a better 3rd down conversion rate was Texas against OU. (Winner had a special teams TD)
Of the nine categories I listed, the typical winner wins 6.48 of them.
The two teams out of 25 games that won all 9 were Texas against Mizzou, and OU against KU.
One team won while winning only 3 categories (Mizzou against Northwestern), two teams won while only winning 4 (UF over OU, and Texas over OkSU).
4/25 winners won the TOP battle without also rushing for more yards, 5/25 winners had more rushing yards, but less TOP, and 3/25 didnt win either.

So In general the adage still holds, although it would be more accurate to say, the team that can convert the third down, and thus get more first downs, wins. Though it would appear the running game has a large effect on these two numbers, as expected.

Any thoughts? I'll keep my crude spreadsheet around for a while if anyone has any other combinations they want looked at.

Vince Highlights from Preseason Week 4

BoddickerIsClutch — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 15:50:48 -0000

Vince Highlights from Preseason Week 4

I didn't see this posted, so apologies if I am repeating. My mother in law linked me to this, and damn, its good to see Vince's wheels, even if it is against second teamers in a meaningless game.

Rick Barnes on Jim Rome Today

BoddickerIsClutch — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 18:49:47 -0000

Rick Barnes on Jim Rome Today

Nothing incredibly exciting, but here's to getting some good karma!

TJ Ties Career High In Points, with 5 Turnovers to go with it.

BoddickerIsClutch — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 14:36:50 -0000

TJ Ties Career High In Points, with 5 Turnovers to go with it.

If you haven't been following TJ in Indiana, hes slowly getting back to form after his back injury. His quickness is almost back to what it was, and every game he has several of those wonderful moments where he makes the defense just look absolutely silly. Good luck TJ, stay healthy.

Final Post On Colt and Completion Percentage

BoddickerIsClutch — Mon, 08 Dec 2008 21:36:14 -0000

Ok just one more game to go. So lets look at it.

Again for any new comers, the NCAA record is 73.6% set by Dante Culpepper.

Colt is currently sitting at 77.6%

The nearest competitor Chase Daniel is currently sitting at 73.97%

Graham Harrell is the only other dude in the NCAA above 70%, but as in everything else, Tech is just a distant 3rd with no shot at the crown.

Colt averages 31.25 attempts per game this year (we will call it 31). To set the record, Colt would need to complete 9... yes... 9 of those 31 passes against Ohio State. 8 may even technically do it, but 9/31 (29% completion rate) would net him a season long 73.9%

So how likely is Colt to get 29% or better?

His worst game EVER completion wise put him at 12/28 against NU last year. This was good for 42.9%
tOSU allows for 55% completion on the year, which is good. OU also allows 55% against arguably stiffer passing competition in the big 12.
4 "Quality" QBs against tOSU - Juice Williams (17/26 65%), Mike Kafka (17/28 61%), Kirk Cousins (18/25 72%), Andre Weber (23/36 64%) -- does anyone think any of these guys is better than Colt? Or that their receivers are better than Quan and Ship?
4 "Quality" Defenses against Colt - OU (28/35 80%), OSU (38/45 84%), TTU (20/34 59%), CU (23/30 77%)

Very freaking likely in my opinion.

Lastly, lets take a quick look at Colt's competition.

Chase - His last 4 games he is 108/160 for 67.5% completion rate. He averages 37.23 attempts a game (again lets make it 37). If Chase goes 37/37 and throws a perfect game against Northwestern, he will end the season at 75.8%, which Colt would beat with a 19/32 (59.4%) performance, which would right at his worst performance of the year.

I'll restate for emphasis, if Chase throws a perfect game, and Colt basically matches his worst game, Colt will finish with a higher completion percentage.

It only gets worse for Harrell, if Graham throws a perfect 47/47 (his season average attempts per game) then he ties Dante Culpepper at 73.6%

Our boy is all growns up, and hes going to get the record.

Ahmard Hall on Jim Rome Show

BoddickerIsClutch — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 19:51:53 -0000

Ahmard Hall on Jim Rome Show

Good interview, great guy, proud Texas alum of which every Texas alum should be proud.

QB Gametime and running up the score. OU vs TX

BoddickerIsClutch — Tue, 25 Nov 2008 20:11:32 -0000

I see it being brought up that Bob runs up the score, and that Mack is super classy, and while I dont disagree with either assessment, I thought it would be a good idea to actually get into the numbers of this season, and to see what we are looking at.

First, all the data was collected from ESPN, to the best of my ability. The time left in the game is representative of when the first offensive series started without the starting QB playing. Its my assertion that you usually see second team offense before you see second team defense, and that calling off the O is a better indicator of running up the score or not. Whether you agree with these assumptions or not, they are how I gathered my data, and I was consistant for each school.

First, lets look in the mirror, and see what Texas has done this year.

eminent.omgbbq.com

A brief explanation. The first column is at what time I determined they left the field (time left in the game), the second column is that number fixed to a base 10 decimal in minutes (ie against UTEP Colt played for 50 minutes 37 seconds, or 50.62 minutes). Points scored is how many were on the board when the starter left followed by what the lead was at the time. Then comes final score, final margin of victory, and then the difference between those numbers.

On the bottom, we have a full average (every game), not full (only the games where less than 60 minutes were played) and then a 6 minute break point (only the games where the QB didnt start a drive with more than 6 minutes, or two possible offensive drives, hereunto called the meaningful games).

As you can see, we increased our point total after pulling Colt on 5 games, but in only two of these games did we increase our margin of victory. Against BU we gave up MOV points, and CU scored while we didnt.

Colt was meaningfully pulled (6 min row) with an average of 11:45 to go in the fourth, and a 31 point lead. On average in those games, we scored 5.4 more points, and increased our MOV by 1.4 before time expired.

Now lets look at OU's numbers:

via eminent.omgbbq.com

OU scored in only 2 games after pulling Bradford, only once increasing their MOV. In 5 games, their MOV went down after taking Sam out.

If we use the same 6 min row, we see that Sam left basically at the start of the 4th, with a lead of 45 points, at which point the Sooners averaged an additional 2.8 points, while decreasing their MOV by 2.8.

I included a 4 min row here, in case people call my 6 minute point into question.

So what conclusions are to be drawn? Well, at first glance you could say that Bob runs it up, as he only takes Sam out when they have a lead of roughly 45 points. However, I would like to counteract that argument with the following points.

Its my beleif, that you are always entitled to three quarters of football. I cant really find fault in letting your starting team play 75% of the game, no matter the score. The data indicates that when meaningfully pulled, Sam has averaged only 3 quarters of play. That would negate the lead argument in my eyes.
The utter lack of scoring after Sam has been pulled. OU has had more time without Sam than we have without Colt, however they have scored less, and given up more. That is not indicitive of someone who is running up the score.

That said, I would also mitigate those points with these points:

Its quite possible that Mack simply has a superior second unit on both sides of the ball. Neither team has excessive numbers after the QB has been pulled, the excuse for Texas' greater averages could just be the result talent or preparation.
The average lead being lower for Texas could also be an indicator in faith in the defensive unit, or Bob's lack thereof. 4 meaningful games for Texas COlt was pulled with a lead in the high 20s, while Bradford was not pulled from a meaningful game without a lead in the 40s.

At any rate the final conclusion that I draw is that there is no conclusion. If you are in agreement that any team should be allowed to play for 3 quarters, then you should also agree that Bob has not run up the score this year. His starting QB has been pulled across the board fairly appropriately, and he failed to score afterwards.

Feel free to review and draw any other conclusions that I missed.

Colt's Completion Percentage Update

BoddickerIsClutch — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 22:30:35 -0000

Well Colt has his worst game of the year completion percentage wise against Texas Tech, but even through he only completed 20 for 34 (58.8%) he is still on pace for a brush with history.

Another note to make, is that should the 7 dropped balls be completions, Colt would have gone 27 for 34 (79.4%) and been right on where he has been. C'est la vie (shit happens if you don't speak French, or close enough anyway).

So where does Colt stand now?

Well there are 3 regular season games left, and a max potential of 5. But first lets look at where we have been.

The Longhorns first 9 opponents have allowed an average of 60.5% completion from opposing quarterbacks. If we take out Colt's games against them, they have allowed 58.4% If you want to talk all around rating, the previous opponents allow an average of 132 QB rating, which seems high, and is, when you notice that Rice and UTEP combine to allow 53 TDS through the air (no one else has allowed more than 17). If we take those two out, the other 7 teams average 126.

Colt currently stands at damn near 79.0% completion rate. Once again, the record is 73.6%.

Assuming Colt throws as many times per game as he currently has, he will need to average 57.61% through the next three games to beat the mark for the regular season, and 64.29% through the next 5 games, to officially set the record.

The teams we have left?

They average giving up 62.7% completions, and overall QB rating of 130.

In summary, Colt is still in great shape, and overall, our passing D ahead of us is still easier than those behind us. For as low as his stats were against Tech, Robo-Colt was mostly on target, and I dont expect us to be in that kind of environment (or first half funk - 7 for 15 in the first half, 13 for 19 in the second) again.

Colt is still headed for history, I'll check in after BU to update the numbers once again.

Side note: Chase Daniel is on pace to break the record as well. He is currently sitting at 77.2% completion, with his 3 final opponents allowing 61.7% completions, so its still a pretty close race with Chase. Colt has the slight adavantage right now, but its something to keep an eye on as well.

Lee Corso talks Football On Jim Rome Show

BoddickerIsClutch — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 18:27:51 -0000

Lee Corso talks Football On Jim Rome Show

They talk Texas v. Texas Tech at the beginning of the interview. Sounds like Corso is leaning toward Tech, good for us. Rome picked Texas earlier in the show, but who cares, unless we get some karma....