I haven't been terribly impressed with Adrian Gonzalez so far. Maybe it's because the media set unrealistic expectation, his shoulder that he recently had surgery on, or maybe it's because he's adjusting to a new league. So I decided to take a look at the top first basemen in the AL and NL. There are three in the AL and three in the NL (four if you add Votto) that separate themselves from the rest. 

AL: I used stats from 2009 to 2011 inclusive. I excluded Youkilis because he no longer plays the position. However, I did leave Carlos Pena in the rankings because he still plays the position, even though it's in the NL. Dunn isn't in the rankings either because he DHs now and has been a DH for years because he plays horrible defense.

1. Miguel Cabrera 

HR: 81 (2nd)

BB %: 12.5 % (3rd)

K %: 17.3 % (8th, from highest to lowest)

wOBA: .414 (1st)

OPS: .989 (1st)

ISO: .254 (2nd)

SLG %: .578 (1st)

WAR: 13.7 (1st) I'm not a huge fan of this stat, but I know some of you like it.

His defense isn't great or even good, but I don't think it's a positive or negative factor. The guy is a freak and has to be headed to the Hall Of Fame. Since he's never been linked to PEDs, it shouldn't take him long to get in.

2. Mark Teixeira

HR: 87 (1st)

BB %: 12.4 (4th)

K %: 19.5 (4th, from highest to lowest)

wOBA: .386 (3rd, or 4th if you add Gonzalez's current 2011 AL numbers to the rankings)

OPS: .899 (3rd, or 4th if you add Gonzalez's curent 2011 AL numbers to the rankings)

ISO: .253 (3rd)

SLG %: .525 (3rd, or 4th if you add Gonzalez's current 2011 AL numbers to the rankings) 

WAR: 10.4

His defense is incredible, probably the best at the position in both leagues. Because he switch hits, he doesn't have a weakness against LHP or RHP. He tends to pull everything, but it's not a problem or anything because the stats speak for themselves.

3. Adrian Gonzalez

Gonzalez switched leagues during the time frame I'm using, so I'll give you his 2009-2010 NL numbers, rank them against the NL and give you his current 2011 numbers and rank them against the AL. 

HR: NL-71 (4th), AL-9 (T-4th) 

BB %: NL- 15.4 (3rd)  AL-7.1 (9th) His batting average is up, but his OBP is down.

K %: NL-19.5 (8th, from highest to lowest) AL-16.0 (10th, from highest to lowest)

wOBA: NL- .390 (4th) AL-.393 (2nd)

OPS: NL-.930 (4th) AL-.911 (2nd)

ISO: NL- .242 (5th) AL-.205 (5th)

SLG %: NL-.530 (5th) AL- .534 (3rd)

WAR: NL-11.4 (3rd)  AL-1.8 (T-2nd)

He moved from a pitcher's park to a hitters park suited for his opposite field swing. The swing is effective and pretty but he can be jammed inside. Also, he's a great defender, like Teixeira. 

NL: The same time frame and stats that applied for the AL apply for the NL as well. 

1. Albert Pujols

HR: 97 (1st)

BB %: 14.6 (4th, or 5th if Carlos Pena's 2011 NL numbers are added to the rankings)

K %: 11.9 (1st from lowest to highest) 

wOBA: .418 (2nd)

OPS: 1.005 (1st)

ISO: .281 (1st)

SLG %: .591 (1st)

WAR: 17.2 (1st)

He's a sure fire Hall of Famer, maybe 1st ballot. If he's not the best first baseman ever, he's certainly one of the best, and you can make an argument that he could be the best position player ever. His defense is up there with Gonzalez and Teixera. 

2. Prince Fielder

HR: 89 (2nd)

BB %: 15.1 (2nd, or 3rd if Carlo Pena's 2011 stats are counted)

K %: 22.2 (7th from highest to lowest, if Pena's 2011 stats are counted, otherwise 6th)

wOBA: .399 (3rd)

OPS: .939 (3rd)

ISO: .256 (3rd)

SLG %: .537 (3rd)

WAR: 11.5 (3rd)

Very good all around in these statistical categories that involve offense. Defense, on the other hand, is a different story, where he's average at best. 

3. Joey Votto

I would have gone with Ryan Howard here because of his better track record than Votto (mostly because of power), but Howard's best seasons are behind him. 

HR: 68 (5th)

BB %: 14.5(5th, or 6th if Pena's 2011 stats are added)

K %: 21.9 (7th from highest to lowest, or 8th if Pena's 2011 stats are counted)

wOBA: .429 (1st)

OPS: 1.001 (2nd)

ISO: .250 (2nd)

SLG %: .575 (2nd)

WAR: 14.7 (2nd)

He's an above average fielder but only has had one season with 30 or more HR. However, he's only 27, so maybe those seasons will come. 

I wanted to do this to put into perspective what some of the better players have done and are doing. I think it gives a good look at who Gonzalez and Teixeira are. Some people think Gonzalez is much better than Teixeira and  vice versa. I haven't seen anything to suggest that, but I would give the edge to Teixera current performance. Plus, Teixeira is a switch hitter. I never used to give him much credit for that, but now I am. Lefties are a pretty big weakness for Gonzalez and not for Teixeira. But it's not all about what has happened. Gonzalez will form his legacy in the next several years with a winning franchise. 

I keep telling myself that it's only been about a week, but that doesn't help. I can see the offense being good(crawford won't hit something like .150 the whole year), but I can't see the pitching being good. For me, Lackey is the worst starter on the team, and Beckett and Buchholz are question marks. Lackey's FIP and xFIP weren't bad last year, but he gave up an enormous amount of baserunners. A 1.50 WHIP is ridiculous ( I think the league average is something like 1.30), which is what he had for most of the year. I can't find the amount of 2Bs he gave up last year, but that number is probably as absurd as the 1.5 WHIP. His stuff looked terrible and it still looks terrible today. If he's gonna pitch like that, then I would make him the long reliever. If he doesn't like it, I don't give a shit. Sure it's a waste of about 20mil, but having him pitch every 5th day isn't helping the club that much. I'd rather see Doubront get experience IF that experience wouldn't hurt his development. Maybe a miracle would happen and somehow we could trade him.

 If Buchholz could be a solid #2, I think Beckett may be able to be a solid #3, I haven't seen much of Beckett this year to be confident in that because he's only made one start. At least, IMO, Beckett has much better stuff than Lackey. He may have lost a few mph off of his fastball, but I don't think that will be a huge problem is he can locate like he used to. Against Cleveland, I really liked his change and his curve, but he just didn't have the command, resulting in pitches left up in the zone. If Buchholz could have the same peripherals as last year, I'd feel OK about him, but he's giving up HRs left and right. The ERA most likely wouldn't be the same, but a 2.33 ERA is ridiculous anyway. For the #2 spot, I'd like to see number of runs given up to be in a ERA range of 3.5-3.7. Dice-K is Dice-K. He won’t make or break this team, but the previous 3 players can.

Based on this, I don't see them winning the division or contending for a world series. I'm not even sure if I can see them make the playoffs. This doesn't mean I don't think they can do this, I just don't think it's very likely to happen. It's probably because there is so much uncertainty with these guys. Lackey has never been good with the sox, Beckett hans't been good in over a year, and Buchholz had one good year with not-so-great peripherals. Again, I keep telling myself it's only been 8 games, but I've lost almost all ability to be hopeful about this season.

<!--EndFragment-->

Since I have joined OTM, there has been an unofficial rally song that we link in the game threads. Sandy usually chooses the rally song, but I was thinking maybe we could vote on it or something. I would make a poll, but I don't have any good suggestions, so I'll leave that up to you. If nobody can come up with anything, then I guess we'll just let Sandy choose again. 

A friend has offered to get me a red sox name and number shirt, and I need help deciding which one to get. I think I maybe leaning toward Lester right now. The fanpost needs more words, so that's why I'm going to continue typing right now. blah blah blah blah blah blah blah. The quick brown fox jumped over the lazy dog. That is still not enough, so here is another sentence.

I know at least a few of you have interest in baseball video games, so I think this may be worth while. It's already mid December, so it isn't that long until next year's baseball games are released. MLB 11 is set to release on March 8, 2011. 

I read an ESPN article that gives a first look at MLB 11, and there will be some interesting additions to the game. The major addition is the use of right analog stick controls for batting and pitching. These will be similar to the ones used in the MLB 2K series. Before you panic, there will be the option to go back to the classic controls. I don't like the 2K series, and I think The Show is much much better. When I played the first 2K game to incorporate the right stick controls, I thought they would be more realistic and enhance the game, but the 2K game still lacked the gameplay smoothness and realistic physics that The Show brought. This is why I'm interested to see just how good the new controls will be in their first year.

Links

ESPN article: http://espn.go.com/espn/thelife/videogames/blog/_/name/thegamer/id/5922458/show-first-look?readmore=fullstory

Trailer: http://www.ign.com/videos/2010/12/16/mlb-11-the-show-announcement-trailer

Website: www.theshownation.com * I saw this on the trailer, but could not get the site to work. Maybe it's not up and running yet. 

Fist off all, I'd like sort out the budget. Since I haven't heard anything, I'm going to assume it's about the same as last year, so about 170mil. Went 9 was kind enough to show me this spread sheet that breaks down everything. 
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tz8qHiYrIzlFtVnly7gibjw&output=html Adding on to that, we have to add in Ells' arb and Salt's new deal. I'm not bringing Pap or Okajima back. So in commitments right now, we have about 101mil + Ells' arb. Now, I'll go on to what I want to see happen. It is a dream offseason, but I'm trying to be as realistic as possible. 

1. Cliff Lee retires  signs with Texas.  Theoretically we could make the best offer for him if we wanted to, but we'd be sacrificing in other areas. 

2. Resign Beltre. I'm not expecting a repeat of this year, but he's always been a great defender and should hit better than he did in Seattle. 

3. Don't resign Martinez. Preferably trade for Iannetta. I'd love to have Vic back on a deal that is front loaded with catcher money and have the rest of the deal be DH or utility man money, but that won't happen. We're signing guys to play a certain position because we have a need there, and Vic 's longevity at catcher is a major question. That  is why I would rather have Beltre. 

4. Non tender Papelbon and Okajima. This gives us money to spend on other bullpen arms. 

5. Sign bullpen pitchers. Preferably Putz and Downs. Downs is probably going to get about 5-6mil per year. And I'm thinking that Putz won't be any more expensive than Papelbon, so at most, I'm thinking those two would be 15mil (9 for Putz and 6 for Downs). 

6. Trade Scutaro for a decent return, possibly saving a couple million. We'll get a bench player to replace him. 

7. Make a play for Crawford/Werth. I'd love to get Werth for 3 years, but that probably isn't realistic. If Werth is going to get 4-5 years, then I would rather give Crawford a 5-6 year deal. Nobody knows yet what these guys will get, but I'm not crazy about either of these investments. We have to know when to get out. 

edit: Pick up Ortiz's option

So here's a mock breakdown of salaries. 

Beltre-13mil

Crawford-20mil

Downs+Putz-15mil

Iannetta- about 2.78mil

Tek- for who knows what

Ortiz for 12

That right there is in the range of 60mil, so the total payroll would be about 160-170mil.  If I'm forgetting something important or miscalculated, please let me know. Let's also keep in mind that the Angels have signed a $4BB TV deal. I don't know if that's a lot, but their fans seem to think that they'll easily get Crawford, Beltre, and possibly Lee. One last thing, none of these guys may want to play in Boston anyway. 

The Red Sox have the contracts of Cameron and Drew ending in after next season, and there are two major outfielders that will be free agents in Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth. Ryan Kalish and Josh Reddick could be able to fill the team's everyday needs in the next few years. Even though it's a unlikely, Kalish could be the everyday left fielder next year, with a move of Ellsbury to CF. Cameron will be 38 next year, and will likely be coming off surgery. If he's healthy next year, I would expect him to be the center fielder next year. 

Carl Crawford: age 29. He has posted a career high in wOBA, .375, and OPS, .841. Along with his speed, he is having an outstanding year, and is due for a huge contract.  Oh yeah, he's also one of the best defensive LF in the game, if not the best. I would love to have Crawford on my team this year, but do I want him on my team three, four, or five years from now? Maybe not. We've yet to see what Ellsbury can do defensively  in LF for a full season, so I think I would rather stay away from Crawford and keep the cheaper option in Ellsbury. Ellsbury might not be better than Crawford next year, but maybe he can make it close enough that he becomes the more appealing option because of his contract. Here you can see an overview of potential suitors, courtesy of MLBTR.   http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/08/potential-suitors-for-carl-crawford.html

Jayson Werth: will be age 32 this offseason. Werth has been consistent in years 07-10, posting wOBAs of .385, .382, .382, and .386. His right handed bat could be a nice compliment to the team, especially with the monster in left. However, his defense has declined over this last season and this year, but I still think he could bring much value to the team. Now we have the question of how much money and how many years? Personally, I would like to get Werth on a two or maybe, maybe a three year deal. If someone is willing to give him four years, that could be a problem because I'm not so sure I want an old, declining player in LF.  

With bigger problems in catcher and third base this offseason, I'm not so sure the sox will land Crawford or Werth. They might not even be much of  a player for either of them. 

I'm sure most of you know who Fitzy is. I don't get NESN, but it's apparent to me that he is being promoted and has some sort of show. Personally, I find some of what he says as immature and stupid, but some of his Red Sox playoff videos are kinda funny. If you want to find out who Fitzy is, go to his website at www.townienews.com. Now, what do you think of him?

What would you do if you were at the game? The man helped us win two championships, but for me his career will be marred in some way because of his off the field actions. The main one is his link to some sort of PED. Although, that's not what really bothers me. What bothers me was his pushing of old men, his badmouthing of Boston, the trade requests followed by "this is the place to be", and his tanking in 08. For me, Manny the player was great, but Manny the person wasn't. If I was at the game, I don't know what I would do. I might do nothing.

I've watched baseball for some time now, and in my opinion, the umps have been very good at what they do. However, it seems like umpiring throughout baseball has taken a nose dive since last year's playoffs. It has continued into this year and has ranged from Joe West's arrogance and self promotion to Jim Joyce's blown perfect game call. So with all of this happening, I'm curious to see who you think is the worst ump in baseball. I am basing this off of who makes the most mistakes. 

 For me, something just never felt right this season. The Sox are out early, so it's time to talk about offseason moves.

Outfield: Bay had a great year, putting up 36HR and a .397 wOBA. Although, this will hurt the Sox pocketbooks if they want to resign him this winter. Another option for LF would be Matt Holliday. He too, will come with a high price tag. Holliday's defense has been on the decline, but is still an upgrade over Bay. The only problem I have with Holliday is that he would be new to Fenway and that his SLG and HR numbers were lower than Bay's. So If I had to pick one, I would choose Bay for his power, but the Sox might not have to choose either. This would be very unlikely, but the Sox could sign a great defender like Coco Crisp to play CF and move Ells to LF, while trading for a power hitting 1B. To make this work, Lowell would be gone and Youk would move to 3B. The result of this would be a greatly improved defense without the loss of any power.

Ellsbury finished the season with 70 SB, an OBP of .355, and a UZR of -16.5. The defense and OBP leave a lot to be desired, but Ells is still a young player that is developing. This is why I would hold off on trading him. He has shown improvement in the OBP department: .336 to .355 from 08-09. If he can improve his OBP and defense, he will surely be a monster at the top of the lineup for years to come.

JD Drew, who is one of the most underrated players, finished the year with 24 HR, a wOBA of .389, and a UZR of 9.7. I want him to stay where he is and keep putting up those numbers.

Infield: Lowell has been injury prone and struggled defensively, so this might be the time to find a replacement or move Youk to 3B. I have two possible replacements which are: Figgins and Beltre. Figgins will more than likely come with a hefty price tag because he is one of  baseball's premier leadoff men. Beltre has an interesting story; he played only 111 games because of injury. During these games he posted a UZR of  13.7, a wOBA of .305, and only 8 HR. However, Beltre put up 25 HR in 08 and 26 HR in 07. If he can regain what he had in 07 and 08, his solid defense and good power could make him an adequate replacement for Lowell. I'm a little confused about what to do here, so what do you people think? 

Lowrie has struggled with injuries all year; because of this, I have some doubts about him next year. However, I am a fan of his and want to see him win the job and play well next year. Gonzo was a short term fix this year, and that's all I want him to be is a short term fix. Since the SS market isn't that deep, Tejada or Scutaro could provide an upgrade over Gonzo at the plate.

Not much needs to be said about Pedroia. He put up 15 HR, a wOBA of .360, and a UZR of 10.2. He should not be going anywhere.

Youk had a fine year with 27 HR, a tremendous wOBA of .413, and a 1B UZR of 4.3. He's the heart and soul of this team. Plus, he's also plays a decent 3B.

Catcher: I sure hope Varitek retires. Besides that, Victor Martinez should have his option picked up.He's an awsome hitter wih a .375 wOBA and 23 HR on both the Indians and Red Sox. His UZR, -0.6, isn't bad, but he can't throw out a runner to save his life. Maybe V-mart could move to 1B if the sox could find a decent hitting catcher that plays solid defense to play 90% of the time. I'm not really in favor of this, but it's possibe. My candidates for this job are Benji Molina, Pudge Rodriguez, and possibly Jose Molina.

Starting Pitching: The rotation should have a solid 1-2-3 of Lester, Beckett, and Buchholz. If Dice-k can reagain his form, this is a very scary 1 through 4 for opposing teams. The 5th starter could be Wake if he decides to come back. Now it's time to talk about the free agents. The biggest name that will demand the most money is John Lackey. Right away, my heart says, "Sign him!", but my head says that the money is probably better off being used elsewhere. Would it be worth it just to keep him away from the Yankees? Pitchers like Pineiro and Bedard would not be bad options, but Harden is too much of an injury risk for me. Although a pitcher that I think is worth the risk is Brandon Webb, who has a club option next year.

Bullpen: Finally, we have the bullpen. I was pretty happy with the bullpen for most of the year. Bard is developing into a young star and will most likely be the future closer. With that said, should the Sox trade Paps and sign a temporary closer? I'm not sold on that option. Bard definitely has the stuff but is maybe a year or two away.

Let's hope that Theo can put together a championship team for 2010.