SB Nation User Blog: BoyfromOz

Lost and Found - Austin and Co.

BoyfromOz — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 13:14:56 -0000

A bit of a WR lost and found.

Found: Austin - legs

In all of this talk of Austin being difficult to tackle and having "running back legs" - no one seems to have mentioned what an amazing turnaround this aspect of his play is. This is the guy that as a kick-returner was tackled multiple times by the kicker - when he was all Austin had to beat!! He seemed to only be able to run in straight lines and went down quicker than Julius Jones.

In his TD against the Bucs I saw him juke a DB almost out of his shoes. And you all know what he did against KC etc.

Found: Jenkins - balls (at least as far as some were concerned)

This guy was absolutely lambasted in the media for his non-tackle on a NYG RB - and it wasn't even Jacobs, it was Ward. At the time he said this was bad judgement / positioning not fear of tackling that had caused the miss. Having seen him hammer a WR in an earlier game I was inclined to believe him - don't think there is any cause for doubting him now.

Lost: Roy - hands

Roy is not TO. He is never going to be a great home run threat. Even he tells every one he is a possession guy (or was it "the" possession guy). No doubt the ongoing disconnect between Roy and Romo is causing him to get some balls which are tough to catch - but aren't you suppossed to have great hands to be a possession receiver? They seem to have gone missing.

Lost: Crayton - predictability

Where punt returns were concerned, Crayton was Mr Predictable - never dropped - either a fair catch or 5-10 yards straight upfield. Then he lost it all - first he started dropping punts left and right. Then he gets dropped, but since Rossum only lasted half of one kick return he gets a reprevieve. But doesn't find his predictiability - no - two straight games with a punt return TD - who would have thunk it?

NFL.com: Anatomy of a play - Marshall's TD

BoyfromOz — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 11:11:37 -0000

A pretty detailed video breakdown with pre-snap audio of the Bronco's - encapsulates some of the problems we are having on D. Pretty painful but informative - worth watching.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d81339d3c&template=with-video-with-comments&confirm=true

I would have put this is in Fanshots but nobody seems to read those. Painful to watch but I think it captures a number of the issues we have with the D this year so far:

> Open field tackling is still crap - they just seem to get in each other's way. And Hamlin - what the heck was that!

> It shows clearly that from the personnel and position on the field the Bronco's knew exactly what coverage we were playing, well prior to the snap

> T-New has been pushing to play more man - I am not sure its his best option (although is Marshall really allowed to grab and pull like that? surely that is holding?)

> D-Ware looks indecisive. He pulls 3 moves (and the ball is gone) before he even engages with the tackle. Looks to me that he is thinking too much, he just needs to fly and hit one decisive move.

> The front-line do hustle - everyone saw Ratliff but Igor and D-Ware were down there too - from the other side of the field.

How do the Cowboys make the playoffs from here?

BoyfromOz — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 23:50:47 -0000

"Playoffs? Don't talk about playoffs. Are you kidding me? Playoffs?"

At the start of the season I had DC pegged at a 10-6 season and a WC berth. But I had us at 3-1 at this point, the Broncos being the difference. But as Raf has shown season after season, there are always big swings so you never quite know who is going to be good or not – Broncos being Exhibit A.

Of concern that, prior to the Broncos game, the Football Outsiders had DC with the most difficult schedule in the League by a significant margin, based on their DVOA metric. Furthermore, the NFC North is looking strong this year so I don’t believe a 9-7 season will cut it this year, we will need to be at least 10-6. Not wanting to get too depressed, I decided to break it down further to see what the team needs to do to make it.

Beat the “easy-beats”

There are no easy-beats in the NFL, but one thing this team has shown an ability to do is beat the teams they should beat (excluding the Brad Johnson “era”). If they do this they get to 5 wins – KC, Oak, Sea.

Split the “challengers”

The challengers for the WC spots are likely Philly, GB, Chi, and Atlanta. They play both Atlanta and GB – if they win both they give themselves a huge boost, lose both and we would be a long shot. However, can’t count on both but need at least 1, probably Atlanta at home. Up to 6 wins.

Split the “others”

That leaves NO and SD. SD looks the easier of the two, particularly at home, but they have a nasty habit of starting slow and finishing the season strong. We need 1 of these to get to 7.

Break-even in the NFC East

Assuming the Giants win the division, Philly is primary competition for a WC spot. So the 'Boys need to at least split with them. But for their conference record to hold up they need to be at least 3-3 in the Beast. So also need to sweep the Redskins or beat the Giants at home. If they sweep the Eagles that would again be a huge boost but certainly can’t count on that. That gets to 10 wins and a probably Playoff berth.

So if you boil it all down, the Cowboys need to beat the “easy-beats” and split their games against tougher opponents to give themselves a shot. But the final piece is potentially the toughest – they are down a game in the NFC East – they need to get it back.

The Great Social Experiment: Talent or Team?

BoyfromOz — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 04:03:28 -0000

One thing that excites me about this season is seeing the outcome of the Cowboys change in philosophy. Does a great team beat great talent or will talent usually triumph?

It seems pretty clear that the Cowboys have less individual proven talent than last year – TO, Ellis, Pacman, Canty being the main losses. Now it may be that others step up into the void but as yet this talent is unproven.

Question is whether a stronger team culture and football focus will more than offset this reduction in talent. If this was a Hollywood movie you know it would, but this is reality and the NFL is a tough place to win.

The answer of course is a bit of both. A team that has significantly inferior talent is never going to go all the way – regardless of how well they play as team. They will eventually come up against a team with stronger talent that has a sufficiently solid team culture to be effective. A team with great talent that play as individuals will never be a consistent winner, particularly in pressure situations. Football is the ultimate team game – if anyone freelances or doesn’t trust or support his teammate the whole structure is weaker.

To me the secret is that you need sufficient talent to be competitive but that ultimately the strongest team cultures win. Do the Cowboys have that? We won’t know for sure till the team is in a pressure situation with the game on the line. It is those “moments of truth” that will tell the story. But at this stage the “vibe” seems very positive and focussed. In contrast it seems all three of our rivals in the NFC East have a few distractions – Vick, Osi going walkabout, Skins undermining Campbell etc. See Mosley’s article:

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfceast/post/_/id/2721/are-the-cowboys-the-most-stable-team-in-the-beast

I believe the team has made the right decision – trading off a little talent for a better team. I really didn’t like the attitude that came across from last year’s team particularly when they were anointed SB favourites in the pre-season.

Baring injuries and assuming some special teams improvement I think we are competitive and balanced. A stronger team culture should put us over the top – our first playoff team in a while. What do you think – has the team made the right choices?

Two Waiver Wire Candidates

BoyfromOz — Sun, 06 Sep 2009 12:42:23 -0000

One team's trash is another team's treasure - there are a few back up spots we could potentially bolster with a couple of waiver wire pick-ups. Would love to get Jack...

No. 1 CB: Jack Ikegwuonu. (Eagles)

This guy could have been a first day, even first round draft pick if not for the serious injury before the draft which meant he would be out his whole rookie year. The Eagles still thought enough of him to draft him last year - but he didn't make the cut this year. Seem a rash cut to me - he was essentially stil a rookie. It was somewhat of a surprise, he was close to making the team. Only a 2nd year player - so still good potential to develop. It would make up for the disappointment of Brown and the Cincy guys. And it would have the added bonus of pissing off the Eagles - as they want to get him back on the PS.

If they feel like Jack is too much of a risk and they need more of veteran fall-back, Evan Oglesby was cut by the Ravens, they know him well, but in his 4th year less potential upside....

No. 2 NT: DT Terdell Sands (Raiders)

6-7 and 340 pounds. Raiders just signed a 4 year deal with him, but he wasn't generating enough bang for the buck. Tried to shop him around, but no buyers at that price. Could fill the hole, especially on run downs, won't get the penetration of a Ratliff (but then who does). Although as one article pointed "when Oakland quits on you for your work ethic, that's not a good sign."

Back-up Center is another position, but figure they need to give Duke due consideration.

The Secret to Romo’s Season

BoyfromOz — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 14:42:19 -0000

Romo’s success this season is going to depend heavily on his ability to beat the blitz – with help from Garrett and the rest of the Offence.

Anecdotally everyone knows what happened in the last time we were in the playoffs. The NYG’s, by necessity, "bet the farm" in the second half and brought everybody – blunting Romo’s effectiveness. I know a bunch of you are yelling at your screens that one data point doesn’t create a trend, but consider this analysis from the Football Outsiders Almanac 2009:

"Romo has shown the rare ability to consistently raise his level of play on third down" [ snip ] The solution, defensive coordinators? Blitz more. Romo’s success rate goes down as the defence sends more rushers; on plays where the defence sent three, Romo’s success rate in 2008 was 56 percent; that dropped steadily with each rusher added, all the way down to a success rate of 33 percent when teams rushed seven"

I believe that teams understand this. The blitzing game-plan is now the blueprint for limiting Romo - if teams have that capability, which our divisional and potential playoff opponents will.

For a QB to beat the blitz they need:

The physical tools - a quick release and/or some mobility, and
The mental tools - vision / decision-making.

There can be little argument that Romo has the physical tools. I have seen articles assessing the speed of his release as faster than Marino’s. Everyone has seen ample evidence of his “escapability”. Its less clear that he has the decision-making. In some respects it seems that Romo’s mobility hurts his decision-making as he tries to stays alive too long trying to make the big play when he would be better off taking the short gain.

Furthermore there was discussion last year of Romo’s poor practice habits. Reading the reporting and commentary, my take on this was not that he didn’t work hard – all the evidence suggests he is a hard worker. Rather the issue is that he didn’t practice with the mental discipline as if it was a game situation. He would force the ball to his intended target and I am guessing – given he couldn’t be hit in practice – tend to go deeper than he really had time for.

However, this is clearly not all on Romo, it seems to me that Garrett’s scheme contributes to this issue.

Too many deep routes and not enough underneath routes. If a heavy blitz is coming, these simply don’t have time to develop – particularly given we didn’t have the quickest receivers.
This is compounded by the lack of hot routes. On the Lunch Break podcast (1/5) Josh Ellis reported a conversation with Romo following the Philly game in which Romo raised hot routes. Romo noted that on most plays Jason Witten was the only hot route. Occasionally Crayton was hot, but there was usually only one on any play. Well the Eagles found a way to take away the hot route and still bring pressure – leaving Romo to take the sack or do things like the misguided throw-up to Roy.

To me this seems puzzling. Why at this level would you only have 1 hot route? Particularly if you have a lot of deep routes as Garrett’s scheme does. You throw in the fact that TO was having trouble beating the press and you have a pretty good recipe for beating our passing game.

So a few things need to change this year:

The O needs a strong ability to pick up the blitz
Romo needs to rely on his release more often (rather than his mobility) and continue to develop his decision-making under pressure (take the short gain)
Garrett needs to adjust the scheme to more effectively to counter the blitz. The apparent focus on screen plays would indicate this is happening.
And finally, our ace in the hole, Mr Felix Jones. With him back there, Garrett and Romo should make teams pay a big price for all out blitzes.

Who is Tony Romo?

BoyfromOz — Fri, 23 Jan 2009 22:30:37 -0000

Is Tony the next in the line of great Dallas Cowboy QB’s (Staubach and Aikman) or is he going to leave with good, perhaps even great, stats but ultimately the frustration of unmet expectations (Danny White)?

To assess this I have tried to pull together a summary of my view of the key attributes of Romo as I see them.

He is talented

There is little doubt he has the talent. He has a history of strong personal performance, going back to Eastern Illinois (3 x 3x OVC Player of the Year (2000–2002) and Walter Payton award in 2002.

He has performed from the first game he stepped into the starter’s role. In around 2.5 seasons he has already broken several Cowboy passing records. His QB rating is phenomenal – Aikman didn't break 90 till his 5th year, Brady never had a year better than Romo's until ’07 and Peyton's didn't until his 6th year. And he made the pro bowl his first two seasons.

He is a nice guy with a calm demeanour

You don’t hear of many NFL starting QB’s changing an old couple’s tire after a game or buying a homeless person a movie ticket – and then sitting next to them! He has real character. He is not a rah-rah but I am not sure he needs to be. But the downside of this personality in a locker-room or on the field is that he likely does not hold his teammates to account enough.

He has never won a playoff game, at any level

His high-school team wasn’t good enough to ever get in the playoffs. Eastern Illinios made the playoffs each of Romo’s 3 years as a starter but lost each time. In 2001 they lost narrowly despite a 5-TD effort from Romo. In 2002, they got killed including 2 turnovers from Romo. You are all more than familiar with his record in the NFL…. This creates a hurdle of self-believe but I think Romo's resilience can overcome this.

He is resilient

He has shown a great ability to bounce back from adversity. His 2007 performance was not impacted by the Seattle fumble. He came back from a 6 turnovers to help his team to victory against Buffalo. Sometimes those early losses set up a lack of belief that manifests itself in further failures (e.g. Levy’s Bills – lost SB narrowly then got blown out in later years….). I don’t think Romo is at this point yet.

I think the danger with this resilience is that he puts too much on himself and continues to take too many risks. In the playoffs this can kill you, as we have seen….

He is “philosophical” (but he does care)

Often with strengths there is another side to the coin. His nice guy personality and resilience I think also lead him to take a pretty balanced view of football – it is not the be-all and end-all for him. There has been a lot of flak over both the Calvin Watkins article and some of Romo’s press conference comments so I won’t rehash it here. But there is also a counter-point from Todd Archer.

This is where Aikman's advice resonates strongly. Romo has not handled perceptions well. Perhaps this is due to his rapid transition from obscurity to NFL star, perhaps due to his balanced view, but he does need to do this better. I personally don't believe his trip to Cabo was a big deal, but it undoubtly created much unneeded pressure and distraction. Perceptions do matter in the NFL, because the mediots are always looking for an angle.

He practices hard, but perhaps without sufficient discipline

These two articles also raise seemingly contradictory points about Romo’s practice habits which I had trouble reconciling. But after reviewing carefully and looking at other evidence (e.g. Woodson’s DC podcasts – great listening BTW) I think I have a view that reconciles them.

There is plenty of evidence of Romo’s work ethic in Archer’s article and from the past few years. Question is whether, as some believe, the fame and fortune has changed these habits. I don’t think so. If you read the CW article carefully it is not critical of HOW HARD Romo practices, but HOW he practices:

“ Romo, sources said, often forced throws in practice and often did not treat practice work consistently.”

I believe the issue is that he is not serious enough in practice and does not execute in practice how he should in the game. This carries over into game situations where he does force the ball when he shouldn’t or pre-determine which receiver is getting the ball regardless of coverage.

It seemed to me that there were a lot of throws this year where there was clear communication issues – even with Witten. Passes where the receiver never turned around or clearly wasn’t expecting the ball. Now I am sure that not all of those were Romo’s fault, but it is disciplined repetition in practice that would reduce the number of those errors or issues, whether by the receiver or Romo.

My “Romo recipe” for success

In my view Romo has both the physical talent and the resilience to be one of the Cowboy “greats”, but there are a few things he needs to do to get over that hump.

1. Lead by example. Got to hold yourself accountable before you can hold others accountable.

2. Continue to work hard – but practice with discipline, focus and concentration. Sset the tone for others as Aikman did. [The coaches hold the greater responsibility here though]

3. I don’t think he can change his nice guy personality and honestly I wouldn’t want him to. But he must hold people to account even if he knows they won’t take it well. If the player responds badly, then the coaches and other players must stand by Romo.

4. Manage perceptions - don't give the mediots any ammunition.

5. Don’t try to win it by yourself, limit mistakes and check-down or throw it away.

There was a short quote in his Eagles press conference that didn’t get much attention. “We didn’t show it today, and I’m disappointed and frustrated. But we will be better next year, I promise you that.”

I for one am looking forward to it.

We are 0-8 in our final regular season game this century

BoyfromOz — Fri, 26 Dec 2008 10:28:52 -0000

I knew we were bad in December under both Big Bill and Little Bum but I did not know we have not yet won our last regular season game this century.

While there were a number of meaningless games in there, there were also 2 awful losses to Detroit.

Will this be the week....

2007 27-6 loss to skins in a meaningless game

2006 That awful 39-31 loss to Detroit at home - in a game the Lions would have been better off losing. (Detroit!)

2005 20-10 Loss to St Louis after the team found out just before the game they weren't going to the playoffs either way.

2004 28-24 Loss to NYG - with them scoring 21 pts in 4th quarter to take the win (we both finished 6-10)

2003 10-5 boys lose to 7-8 saints 13-7

2002 Led by "the Chad" we go down 20-14 at the Skins (the last of the 5-11 years)

2001 A sorry 5-10 Boys team losses to an even sorrier Detroit 1-14 team (Detroit!) (again!)

2000 Ouch. 0-31 @ Tennessee. Maybe this one set the tone.

1999 Hooray - a win - vs NYG at home 26-18. Jason Tucker was our leading receiver with 122 yards (who?)

Colombo Re-Signed through 2012

BoyfromOz — Wed, 24 Dec 2008 22:56:15 -0000

Colombo Re-Signed through 2012

That's great - Thanks Jerry - nothing like continuity on an o-line. (Doesn't say much for Free though....)

Injury plague – bad luck or bad management?

BoyfromOz — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 09:29:31 -0000

There was an interesting bit of analysis on Dallas in the Football Outsiders Prospectus for 2008.

We have (had?) the lowest injury rate in the NFL for the last 5 years to 2007 -by a considerable margin. We showed an average 3.6 "adjusted games lost" vs 8.2 for Houston in 2nd place. No other team was under 10. So we are way out in front.

They noted there is an element of luck, but said over 5 years this should even out. They attributed to this strong performance to Joe Juraszek and how he works on "functional fitness" using trampolines, exercise balls etc and not just old fashioned lifting and sprints – as well as to the medical staff.

They also noted that when we did get injuries, they tended to not keep our players out for long - again attributed to JJ. They did say more teams in the league are now following these approaches.

Of course no sooner do they print that analysis and we get hit with:

Kosier, RW1, Anderson, Watkins, Spencer, Austin, Hurd, Scandrick, Newman, McBriar, Felix, Romo,....

What really bothers me though is the number of re-injuries:

Kosier – returns and re-injured

RW1 – returns and re-breaks the hard

Newman – plays when clearly injured and has to have surgery

Hurd – returns and re-injured and out for season

Watkins – been in and out

Scandrick – been in and out

Austin – been in and out

Witten – gets cleared to rejoin the game and turns out he has a fractured rib! Lucky he had the good sense to stay out.

And to top it all, Felix gets hurt while re-habbing an unrelated injury!

What the heck is happening? Is this Karma catching up with us big time? I know Juraszek is still around. Any insiders know if anything significant has changed with his training approach or the team’s medical staff?