If the Mets continue to play competitive baseball, should they (can they) take a look at Oswalt? He has a career record of 159-93, 3.21 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 3.58 xFIP, 1.19 WHIP and turns 35 in August. I'd guess that it'd take $6mil to sign him for the balance of the season, assuming he starts playing in mid-to-late June.

As I see the Mets, their two biggest question marks for competing this year are the bullpen and the #5 slot in the rotation. Oswalt answers the rotation question in a big way - you could even slot him in as a #2. The benefits are a) he would not cost them any prospects or draft picks; b) he would not cost a ton of money; c) he would make the team much more likely to make the playoffs; and d) he would not block someone like Harvey or Wheeler from reaching the majors beyond the end of August, while simultaneously helping prevent the Mets from having to rely on a rookie to make a possible post-season run.

I believe Oswalt has said he doesn't want to come to New York. Is that because he thought the Mets wouldn't be competitive and didn't want to play in the AL? Or does the Mississippi boy simply prefer a quieter setting like Philadelphia?

Other options seem to be Chris Young, Miguel Batista, Chris Schwinden, Jeremy Hefner, Jenrry Mejia, Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler or make a trade. If the Mets can afford it, which remains a major question as far as I know, doesn't Oswalt make sense for this team?

Over at www.grantland.com, Jonah Keri recently posted this article about how awful Saves are as a stat:

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/23416/blowing-up-baseballs-most-dangerous-stat

If you don't care to follow the link and are, like me, unfamiliar with Shutodwns and Meltdowns, a Shutodown is when you increase your team's chances of winning by 6% or more and a Meltdown is when you decrease your team's chances of winning by the same. Here's a look at how the Mets' bullpen did last year in Shutdowns and Meltdowns including the three new guys:

	Shutdowns	Meltdowns	SD/MD
Izzy	23	7	76.67%
Acosta	15	5	75.00%
Rodriguez	18	6	75.00%
Francisco	19	7	73.08%
Rauch	19	9	67.86%
Buchholz	5	3	62.50%
Igarashi	7	5	58.33%
Beato	15	11	57.69%
Parnell	16	15	51.61%
Byrdak	8	13	38.10%
Carrasco	4	7	36.36%

For comparison some of the league leaders: Johnny Venters had 88.7% SD/MD, John Axford 93.5%, Mariano 84.1% and Greg Holland 96.0%.

My take-away from this is that perhaps the three new guys are better than I thought, at least relative to where the Mets' pen was last year. I'm also surprised to see Byrdak so low. Overall, after Santana's health, I think the bullpen will be the biggest swing factor in the Mets' success this year. Parenthetically, Francisco is the only player in the league with three shutdowns so far this season.

Has anyone noticed that the Mets returning to the bullpen from last year (Byrdak 0.00 ERA, Edgin 0.00 ERA, Parnell 0.00 ERA, Herrera 1.42 ERA, Schwinden 1.42 ERA, Acosta 2.25 ERA) have all pitched much better than the new guys (Francisco 6.00 ERA, Rauch 7.04 ERA, Ramirez 7.50 ERA)? I know it's just Spring Training, but it's starting to feel like we spent $10mil on guys we simply didn't need.

A popular opinion seems to be that Reyes won't be able to stay healthy and therefore won't be worth a 6-year $120mil contract.  Let's compare Carlos Beltran's 7-year contract with Reyes' last 7 years:

Year	Beltran's WAR	Reyes' WAR
2005	2.7	2.3
2006	7.9	6.1
2007	5.5	5.8
2008	7.6	6.4
2009	3.0	0.8
2010	0.8	2.9
2011	4.7	6.2
TOTAL	32.2	30.5
Average	4.60	4.36
Price per Win	3,727	3,934

In the last 7 years, Reyes averaged 133 games played.  Beltran averaged 126 games played (vs a career average of 135) in a contract that got him up to his 34-year-old season.  A 6-year contract for Reyes would take him to age 33.  Is it too much to expect Reyes to play in 133 games per season for the next 6?  Given the lack of alternatives, I don't see that the Mets have any choice but to re-sign Reyes, give him the 6th year if that's what it takes.  Beltran, as little as he played, was worth it, despite what Wilpon might think.  Reyes will be too. 

Outta nowhere, a former greenskeeper, now about to become World Series Champion.  Everybody loves the little team that could, the kids from nowhere if you will.  It's why we're all Mets fans, right?  My basic principle is to develop as many home-grown players as possible and fill in the rest with free agents and trades.  Toward that end, I'm building a team around Wright and Reyes, with Davis, Duda, Thole and Tejada getting starting jobs and Murphy the utility/first bat off the bench job, and Niese and Gee in the rotation.  We'll build the bullpen partly through free agents and give opportunity to home grown guys as they earn opportunities.  Guys who are blocked by established major league talent can be moved to make the major league team better.

As I see it, this team has two ways forward:  re-sign Jose Reyes, extend David Wright and look to compete in 2012 and the near future, or let Reyes walk, trade Wright, Bay, Santana, Pagan, Dickey and anything else that isn't nailed down or is over 27 years old.  The reason the second option is so dramatic is that I don't see any way of replacing Reyes and still being competitive in 2012.  There are four big-time free agents on the market this year:  Reyes, Fielder, Pujols and possibly Darvish.  CJ Wilson does not qualify as a big-time free agent in my opinion, whatever contract he might end up with.

So let's start with the idea that the Mets can re-sign Reyes.  For lack of a better structure, I'll say 5 years at $100mil with a vesting 6th year based on games played.  Since I hate doing math, let's make it $20mil per year.  If I have to go 6 years, I'd do that at say $110mil with incentives to kick it up over $125 if he plays enough.

 In the immortal words of Jean Paul Sartre, 'Au revoir, Phillies':  You gotta reload that bullpen, fall back on superior firepower.  I'm going Stony Brook's Joe Nathan on a 1 year $4mil contract.  His xFIP at 3.96 was nearly a full run lower than he ERA.  He struck out 8.66 per 9 and walked only 2.82.  If you look at his stats from after he came off the DL in late June, he had 11 saves, a 3.38 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP and 8.59 K/9.  I'm willing to bet he can recapture the mojo that he had in averaging 41 saves over 6 seasons before 2010.  If it takes an option year to get him here, I'd do that.  Say an option of second year at $8mil or a $1mil buyout.

I'm signing Rich Harden to pitch out of the bullpen as a 7th-8th inning guy.  His xFIP this year was 3.68 and he struck out 9.91 per 9, walking only 3.38 per 9.  If the knock on him is you can't get 150 innings out of him and he hasn't topped 148 since 2004, why try?  Let's see if we can turn him into another Kerry Wood.  I'd sign him to a 1 year $2mil deal with a team option for a second year at $3mil or a $1mil buyout.  If we can't get Harden, I'd see about signing someone like Sheets or Bonderman to a minor league deal with the same idea of making him a reliever.  Zach Duke had a 3.86 ERA as a reliever last year.  I'd give him a call too.

I'm signing a Molina because I believe Thole will be fine offensively but needs help defensively.  Jose can still get it done behind the plate.  Furthermore, five of the last eight World Series have had a Molina as one of the catchers, so we'd have that going for us.  Which is nice. 

Bringing in Orlando Cabrera or a similar older defensive middle infielder is probably advisable.  As much as I think Valdespin or Josh Satin could help out in 2012, it makes more sense to get those guys playing time in the minors until they earn a shot at the Show.

Oh, this is the worst-looking hat I ever saw. What, when you buy a hat like this I bet you get a free bowl of soup, huh?  Well, our hat doesn't look so good, so I'm trading it for someone else's bowl of soup.  I'm sending Bay to the White Sox along with Reese Havens, Armando Rodriguez and Brad Holt in exchange for Jake Peavy.  Why would the White Sox make that trade?  They have a good staff in Buehrle (assuming the re-sign him), Danks, Floyd and Humber with a good-looking kid in Dylan Axelrod along with possibly trying Chris Sale for a shot at the #5 slot.  Second, they had exactly one guy who did not have a disappointing season offensively in 2011 (so Bay will fit right in).  Third, they can look at Bay's post-ASB production (.256/.336/.419) and see progress towards returning to form.  Add in the notion of going from pitchers' park to hitters' and that their salaries are nearly identical for 2012 and there you go.  Havens is a nice 2B prospect which they may need if Beckham doesn't improve, and Holt gives them a potential bullpen guy who could help them move Sale into the rotation.  If these two prospects aren't enough to get it done, I'd offer Fernando, Gorski or Cohoon as possible alternatives.  Why would the Mets do this trade?  Peavy is one full year removed from his surgery now.  On the season, he had a 3.21 FIP and 3.52 xFIP, so the peripherals were much better than the 4.92 ERA suggests. 

Who then is going to play the outfield for the Mets?  I'm trading Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Cory Vaughn to the Angels for Peter Bourjos.  While both our guys are very young and still with good upside, Bourjos had 5.0 WAR playing an excellent defensive CF this year and hit .294/.333/.475 with 9 HR and 16 steals after June 3.  For the Angels, they want to make room in their outfield for Mike Trout, the 20 year-old super-prospect, so if they can flip a pretty good 24 year-old for a couple of young prospects, I think they do it.  They can bring both guys up as Abreu and Hunter get ready to move on in the next year or two.  Bourjos can play center, Pagan right and Duda left giving the Mets a pretty darn good defensive outfield (at least 2/3s of one).  I know this one is a bit contrary to my basic premise of building with our own guys, but think of it as the 21st-Century HoJo trade.

A flute without holes, is not a flute. A donut without a hole, is a Danish.  The rotation is Santana, Peavy, Niese, Dickey and Gee with Schwinden likely getting the first call if/when an injury comes up.  I'd want to make sure we have Plan B in mind if Santana isn't ready.  Pelfrey, unfortunately, would likely be non-tendered, unless he'd either accept a lower contract than expected (say $3.5mil) or another team find him of value.  I'm assuming he won't be back.  Bringing in 2-3 guys like Sheets, Bonderman, Miguel Batista or Bruce Chen is key because of Santana's health questions.  Yes, Santana should be ready, but if Harvey or Familia is plan B, I think that's irresponsible.  Sure, if they're ready - if they're dominating AAA in mid-June when you need help, give them a call.  Short of that, I'd rather call them up a little too slowly than too quickly.  Look, we don't have a ton of pitching unless the big guys are healthy.  We're not moving Santana.  Peavy is a short-term fix.  Niese is a keeper, I think.  Gee is an innings-eater, but that in itself is valuable.  Hopefully we can keep Dickey around for a few more years but no need to address that right now.  The future of the team (Harvey etc) is not quite ready. 

DOGFOOD?!?!  Nathan and Harden would be the imports to get the bullpen through the year until we find out more about Acosta, Parnell and some of the kids like Leathersitch, Edgin and Lujan.  Acosta had a great second-half - post ASB was 4-1 with a 2.31 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP and 38 K in 35 IP.  Of the minor league invites, I'd hope that guys like Batista, Duke, Chen could pitch out of the bullpen if necessary.  Meantime, I'd like to see some homegrown guys get a shot in Spring Training, even if they didn't pitch at a high level last year.  I'm looking at Edgin and Leathersitch in particular, Herrera, Lujan, Beato and Thayer as well, if he'll come back. 

Position	Player	Salary	Expected WAR	Comments
C	Thole	0.45	1.0	Hit .268/.345/.344 on season, but over last four months hit .298/.368/.395 with 25 walks and 25 Ks. Had 1.0 fWAR in '11, 1.6 in '10.
C	Molina, Jose	1.00	1.0	Produced almost all his value on defensive side - nice cheap compliment to Thole, a veteran who can show Thole a few tricks behind the plate.  Had 1.3 fWAR in '11, 0.9 fWAR in '10
1B	Davis	0.45	3.5	Career to date is about one full season of at bats:  .271/.357/.460 with 26 home runs and 93 rbi.  I'd be a little disappointed if that was all he did in a full season, but pleased if he got a full season, if that makes any sense.  Career fWAR is 4.9.
2B	Tejada	0.45	1.8	Hit .284/.360/.335 on season; last 180 at bats hit .319/.374/.400 with 4 steals, 14 walks, 17 K.  I'd be thrilled with anything in between if he plays defense that well.  fWAR was 1.8 in '11 in 96 games.
SS	Reyes	20.00	5.0	Career splits .292/.341/.411, averaged 4.7 fWAR between '06-'11 including injury-plagued years in '09 and '10
3B	Wright	15.00	3.5	Career splits .300/.380/.508 - I honestly don't know what to expect from Wright this year, but he is young enough to bounce back to being a 5-6+ WAR guy
LF	Duda	0.45	2.0	On the season, hit .292/.370/.482 with 10 homers and 50 rbi; from June 25 on, when he became a fixture in the lineup, he hit .317/.386/.538 with 10 homers and 45 rbi.  I think he can be a 4-5 fWAR guy this year.  Combined AAA stats from 2010-11:  .310/.396/.606 with 27 HR and 77 RBI in 108 games
CF	Bourjos	0.45	4.3	Hit .294/.333/.475 with 9 HR and 16 steals over last 303 at bats on season, excellent defender, only 24 years old.  fWAR was 4.3 in '11 in 147 games.
RF	Pagan	5.00	2.0	Was awful in April, put up career average numbers offensively after return from DL:  .279/.336/.394 with 5 homers and 28 steals in his last 409 at bats.  Assuming he returns to at least passable defense, he can be a 2+ WAR guy again, more if he plays D well.  Was 0.9 fWAR in '11, 5.5 fWAR in '10, 2.9 fWAR in '09 (88 games).
U	Murphy	0.45	2.0	It probably makes the most sense to trade Murphy as he would have value as a starter for another team, but I love a gamer like him and can't bring myself to give him up.  Had 3.2 fWAR in '11 in 109 games.  Should be less in '12 barring injuries to starters.
IF	Cabrera, O	1.00	0.2	Valdespin is the first up if there's an injury in the middle infield, but I think he can be a long-term answer at second if Tejada isn't so he needs PT.  If not Orlando, then John McDonald or the other Hairston brother.  Basically a veteran who can flash the leather.
OF	Pridie  Fernando  Evans  Baxter	0.45	0.2	Pridie is probably the first guy up as he is strong defensively, but given Bourjos and Pagan we may need the offense more, which could make the others more useful.  Whoever is hitting will play the most, but they are bats off the bench, so likely Evans and Baxter are the more "expendable" on the bench.  Fernando still has the potential to be good.
SP	Santana	24.00	2.0	Could be high, could be low.  His previous low for WAR since 2002 is 2.6 when he's, you know, actually pitched.  However xFIP has gone up every season since '04.
	Peavy	17.00	2.5	Had 2.9 fWAR in '11 with 3.52 xFIP in 111 IP.  Over one full year removed from shoulder surgery, worked through tendinitis and took every turn from May 11 to September 6 when the Sox shut him down saying he wasn't quite over his surgery yet.  I'm betting he will be this year.
	Niese	0.45	2.5	Had 2.7 fWAR in '11 and 1.9 fWAR in '10.  His 3.28 xFIP ranks 14th in the majors last year among guys with 150+ innings.  I'm willing to bet the improved team D will help him the most
	Dickey	4.25	2.5	Had 2.5 fWAR in '11 and 2.8 fWAR in '10.  I'm all in with him.
	Gee	0.45	0.2	Had 0.2 fWAR in 2011.  Would be first one traded or sent to bullpen if/when the kids are ready.
CL	Nathan	4.00	1.0	Had 0.0 fWAR in 2011, but you have to go back to 2003 and his last year with the Giants to find a year under 1.9 before that.
RP	Harden	3.00	0.5	Had a 0.4 fWAR in 2011 as a starter.  Last year was -0.6, but has 17.0 WAR over career.  I'm banking that his power will translate well to the bullpen.
	Acosta	1.00	0.5	Had a 0.1 fWAR in 2011, but that is skewed by his first-half stinkitude (6.75 ERA in 12 innings) and toiling in the minors until June.
	Parnell	0.45	0.5	Had a 0.6 fWAR in 2011 and 1.8 WAR over the last three seasons combined.  Feels like he should be a 1+ WAR guy if we ever get an idea about that 5-cent head of his.
	Byrak	1.00	0.2	Had a 0.4 fWAR in 2011, but has been up and down in his career.
	Duke	1.00	0.1	Last three spots are up for the taking.  I'd bring in guys like Zach Duke, Chen, Sheets, Miguel Batista, Bonderman (whoever will take a minor league invitation), Carrasco, Herrera, Beato, Lujan, Edgin and even Leathersitch, and say whoever pitches best in the Spring will make the team
	Thayer	0.75	0.1	I don't think you can build a bullpen by saying "I'm spending $3mil on player X to be our LOOGY or long-relief guy" and then thinking you've got it solved.  OK, spend that on your closer / 8th inning guy, but too many bullpen guys flame out.  Better bring in a raft of guys, throw them in and see who can swim.
	Tankersly	1.00	0.1
		103.75	39.2

Add in a couple million for the guys who won't be on the roster (Matthews, Carrasco) and another couple million if the options on Nathan and Harden aren't picked up and we're in at $108mil.  Still enough to offer minor league deals to all the scrubs I mentioned above.

If the injury bug hits, we can find out about guys like Weaver, Familia, Harvey or Mejia in the rotation by year-end, Edgin, Leathersitch, Beato or Lujan in the bullpen.  Murphy can fill in ably for either Wright or Davis if they get hurt.  Hopefully Valdespin could take a turn at second or short if either Reyes or Tejada got hurt.  If not, we'd have Orlando Cabrera or McDonald as a defensive replacement again with Murphy perhaps providing some offense.  Down the road, we still have Wilmer, Fernando, Nimmo, Lagares and Lutz who could contribute and we haven't given up any draft choices for 2012. 

With Davis and Tejada on the infield for (hopefully) a full season, Bourjos and Pagan in the outfield, Molina sharing catching duties, and a return to form for Wright and Reyes, I look at Duda as the only defensively challenged full-time player.  We've managed to keep all four of our best pitching prospects, plus Flores and Fernando.  Yes, we gave up Nieuwenhuis, Havens and Vaughn, but I think for the right guys.  Bourjos is perhaps not an all-star, but a young, talented player who can do a little of everything.  Peavy is a one or two-year guy (yes, I'd pick up his option if he truly returns to Cy Young form, otherwise, no) who can do more than hold the fort until the first kids are ready.  I tried to be conservative in my estimates for WAR.  With that, I have an 88-win team.  If healthy, this is a 90+ win team.  It looks like a mirac... It's in the hole!  It's in the hole!  It's in the hole! 

Everything I've read seems to point to an outfield of Bay, Pagan and Duda from left to right for 2012.  So going from right to left, here is what I see:

Obviously Duda has yet to prove he can play every day.  However since June 22, he is hitting .318/.384/.530 with 4 home runs and 24 rbi in 45 games.  OK, it's only 132 at bats, but 14 walks against 20 K and the other numbers are solid.  Moreover, all four of his homers have come in the last 21 games as his playing time has become more steady.  Of course you can do anything will small samples.  However, between 2010 and 2011, in AA and AAA, he had 33 homers and 111 rbi in 153 games (27 of those in AAA), so I think it's reasonable to think that a 25 home run season is possible for Duda in the majors.  If we're assuming that Duda has the inside track to play right field in 2012, why isn't he playing there now?  To get Jason Pridie more at bats?  Shouldn't he be in right and get Nick Evans in at 1B?

The general opinion seems to be that Pagan needs to find his 2010 mojo or risk Captain Kirk or Fernando perhaps overtaking him at some point next year.  However, since coming off the DL in late May, Pagan has hit .278/.337/.404 with 5 homers and 20 steals (in 24 tries) over 270 at bats in 69 games.  Passable at least, and with some insurnace via internal options, I feel we're OK in center.  If Pagan could put those numbers up over a full season, 10 homers and 40 steals would certainly be acceptable. 

I'd suggest that the Mets try to put Bay through waivers if they haven't already and see if anyone is foolish enough to believe he has re-discovered his pre-Mets form.  For those laboring under the impression that Citi Field has gotten into Bay's head, here are his home/road splits over the last two seasons:  Home - .273/.360/.435, Road - .237/.316/.339.  If we can get someone like the Giants, Rangers or Red Sox to take him and his salary off our hands, I say do it now.  If we get rid of Bay, who will play left?  Obviously Fernando is a possibility.  Could Zach Lutz move to the outfield?  I'm sure I don't want Murphy out there.  If internal options don't look solid, $16mil from Bay should give us ability to get a free agent, however the list there is rather thin after Beltran: Cody Ross, Ryan Ludwick, Coco Crisp, Josh Willingham, Jason Kubel.  I'd suggest that any of these guys would be an upgrade over Bay in terms of production for pay and they're all younger than him.  Over the last five seasons, Ross has averaged 2.1 WAR, Ludwick 2.6, Crisp 2.6, Willingham 2.4, Kubel 1.3 (over three seasons), and Bay 2.0.  (All those averages include 2011 YTD.)  Of these guys, Crisp has the best recent trend with 3.3 WAR last year and 2.4 so far this year, though he comes with a "high injury risk" warning label.  My point is, Bay turns 33 in September.  He may be a nice guy and all, but I've seen enough.  If we can't get some team to take him on waivers this fall, let's figure out a way to get him off the team before next year.

Step One:  Dump the bad salaries.  Eat them if you have to (Ollie and Luis of course).  But I think we might include some of them in the two major trades I would make.

Step Two:  Bay for Zito.  If the Giants won't take Castillo or Perez back as well, and I think they will, they would have to agree to pay for Zito's option year if he earns it.  For the Giants, they replace a guy who was left off their playoff roster with a guy who has been a consistant run producer in his career at equal money.  For the Mets, they replace a guy who produced a 1.4 WAR in 2010 in LF with a 200-inning pitcher.  Granted, he is a long way from winning a Cy Young or even making an all-star team.  But the Mets need an innings-eater and the net cost is $0. 

Further, replacing Bay's production in LF should be relatively easy for the Mets as he was a 1.4 WAR last year.  I'd pencil in a platoon of Duda and Evans and sign a couple of veterans to be back-ups and fail-safes.  I have Jim Edmonds and Eric Hinske down but others could do as well.  Duda hit .348/.421/.663 vs righties last year in the minors while Evans has a career .322/.379/.512 vs lefties in the majors.  Of course the sample size is small, thus the need for Edmonds and Hinske.  Last year, the four combined for 3.6 WAR.  I've got them at 2.5 combined for 2011.  Hopefully we can find out if one of the kids can play every day.  If not Evans or Duda, Captain Kirk may earn a shot as well.

Step Three:  Empty the farm system for Hanley Ramirez and move him to 2B.  I'm talking Flores, Mejia, Martinez and Urbina going back.  Ramirez will be 27 later this month and is off his worst year since his rookie campaign.  He still has four years and $57.5mil left on his contract so the Fish would be in no hurry to trade him, thus the Godfather Offer (one they can't refuse).

Step Four:  Offer Webb a two-year incentive-laden contract with a base of $10mil per year - if he throws well and passes his physical.  I also like the John Lackey Club Option - if he misses time due to a recurrence of a previous injury the Mets get a club option year at league minimum.  If not Webb, go to option B - Erik Bedard, similar deal but scaled back to 1 year and $5mil with the same club option.

Step Five:  Fill out the bullpen.  Uehara seems a popular option, though there are several similar to him that would do just as well I think.  Wood, Saito and Fuentes are all viable options.  Farnsworth has a bad name in New York, but I think his fly ball tendencies would play much better in Citi than across town.  Again, there are several other options to him:  Dotel, Wheeler or Balfour would be fine also.  We'd need two lefties assuming Feliciano isn't back (and Fuentes isn't signed).  Ohman is a good short man who has decent success against righties too.  And Hendrickson has the ability to spot-start if needed. 

Step Six - passive step - we keep Beltran to play out his contract and move him to RF.  If he stinks, or gets hurt again, we have Hinske, Edmonds, or one of the other kids to fill in.  If he is playing well, we can decide whether to trade him mid-season.  My hope would be he and the Mets are both looking good and he plays out his contract.  We'd then have close to $30mil of payroll coming off after 2011 to fill in Right Field if no internal option presents itself.

	Player	2010 WAR	2010 PA	2011 est WAR	2011 est PA	2011 Salary
Catcher	Thole	1.4	227	2.0	400	440,000
Catcher	Bard, J	0.2	126	0.1	250	500,000
1st Base	Davis	3.4	601	3.5	640	440,000
2nd Base	Ramirez H	4.4	619	4.5	700	11,000,000
Shortstop	Reyes	2.8	603	3.0	650	11,000,000
3rd Base	Wright	4.1	670	4.0	650	14,000,000
Left Field	Duda	-0.3	92	1.0	300	440,000
LF Platoon	Evans	0.1	37	0.5	200	440,000
Center Field	Pagan	4.9	633	3.5	650	4,000,000
Right Field	Beltran	0.9	255	3.0	550	18,500,000
Bench	Hinske	1.0	320	0.5	350	1,000,000
Bench	Edmonds	2.8	272	0.5	200	850,000
Bench	Murphy	1.0	556	0.1	150	440,000
	Player	2010 WAR	2010 IP	2011 est WAR	2011 IP	2011 Salary
SP	Zito	2.1	199	2.0	200	16,000,000
SP	Pelfrey	2.9	204	2.5	200	4,000,000
SP	Niese	1.9	174	2.0	195	440,000
SP	Dickey	2.9	174	2.5	195	3,000,000
SP	Webb	0.0	0	2.0	150	10,000,000
RP	Rodriguez	1.4	57	1.5	65	11,500,000
RP	Uehara	1.4	44	1.0	50	4,000,000
RP	Farnsworth	1.0	65	1.0	60	2,000,000
RP	Ohman	0.3	42	0.2	45	2,000,000
RP	Hendrickson	0.4	75	0.2	80	3,000,000
RP	Parnell	0.7	35	0.5	55	440,000
RP	Acosta	0.3	40	0.1	40	440,000
DL	Santana	3.5	199	1.5	150	22,500,000
		45.5	1,308	43.2	1,485	142,370,000

In 2010, these players produced a WAR of 45.5, including 14.4 from guys that weren't here last year.  I estimate here they can get 43 WAR which I think is very conservative.  Of the returning guys, I have them for a total of 0.1 WAR more than they produced last year.  A more reasonable estimate might be closer to 50.  Yes, that's 98 wins.  In 2011.  It also features a team with 6 every day home-grown Mets (counting Pagan, and counting Evans/Duda as one).  OK, slight mis-calculation as I had Wright down at league minimum instead of $14mil!  Now we need the Giants to take Castillo and Perez back.  May need to offer a b-level prospect to entice them.  Dillon Gee perhaps?  Are we giving up a lot in the Ramirez trade?  You bet.  But we're getting a 27-year old stud back.  And if Santana and Webb are healthy, this is a 95+ win team. 

Here is the list (I'm leaving Rivera and Soriano off the list as they are not options for the Mets - there is SOME chance any of these guys could end up in Citi) - if you want the punch-line, skip to the end:

Dotel (37) - type B - 0.1 WAR, 4.20 FIP, 4.27 xFIP, 10.55 K/9, 4.5 BB/9 - numbers slipped slightly off his career averages.  Seems to be good for 60-65 innings these days.  Worth a look as a set-up guy.

Francisco (31) - type A - 1.0 WAR was lowest in last 3 years (which is still excellent for a set-up man).  Lost closer job to Feliz, probably will get a shot closing elsewhere unless he accepts arbitration.

Fuentes (35) - not offered arb, had 0.4 WAR in '10.  3.85 FIP, 4.54 xFIP belie 2.81 ERA, though career numbers trend that way - 3.41 career ERA, 4.00 career xFIP.  Off two shaky years with the Angels and being traded to Min to be a set-up guy, could be left as set-up guy again? 

Gregg (33) - type B - 0.8 WAR in '10, 3.57 FIP, 4.22 xFIP, 8.85 K/9, 4.58 BB/9.  Another borderline closer/set-up guy.  If we can get him for set-up guy money, could be a good fit.

Hoffman (43) - type B - had a -0.6 WAR in '10, 5.21 FIP, 5.26 xFIP.  An ignominious end to an amazing career.  Did the Brewers really offer him arbitration?

Qualls (32) - Type B - 0.3 WAR, 4.13 FIP, 3.91 xFIP, 7.32 ERA.  What the heck???  How does anyone have their actual ERA end up almost twice their xFIP?!?!  3.20 BB/9 well above '09's mark of 1.21, BABIP was .399.  LOB% was 53% compared to 71.9% in career.  Get him out of the desert.  Could be a cheap option for a rebound year as a set-up guy.

Rauch (32) - 1.1 WAR, 2.94 FIP, 4.18 xFIP in '10.  Thrived as closer for Twins then they replaced him mid-year.  Probably another guy more suited to be a set-up guy than a closer, but I could see the Pirates or some such team getting him as their closer.

Wood (34) - type B - 0.1 WAR, 4.17 FIP, 4.55 xFIP in '10.  5.67 BB/9 is a long way from 2.44 mark he put up closing for the Cubs in '08.  Another big K arm that may be looking to re-establish himself as a big-time reliever - willing to take set-up man money? 

Balfour (33) - type A - 1.2 WAR, 2.68 FIP, 3.78 xFIP in '10.  0.9 WAR in '09, 2.1 WAR in '08.  One of the top set-up men in baseball. 

M Batista (40) - had a -0.3 WAR in '10 after 0.0 in '09.  4.76 FIP, 4.78 xFIP.  No thanks.

D Bautista (28) - had a -0.1 WAR, 4.68 FIP, 4.88 xFIP, 3.74 ERA.  Career best WAR was back in '05 starting 7 games for the Royals.  Pass.

Bonser (29) - 0.2 WAR, 3.72 FIP, 4.32 xFIP, 6.12 ERA in '10.  Had WAR of 1.2, 1.6, 1.3 from '06-08 mostly as a starter before missing '09 due to injury.  Peripherals seem to indicate he is back.  I'd definitely be interested in him as a 7th inning guy at least.

Corpas (28) - 0.4 WAR, 4.19 FIP, 4.41 xFIP in '10.  Saved 10 for the Rox.  Career FIP is 3.82, xFIP is 3.98.  6.48 K/9 and 2.52 BB/9 in caereer.  Doesn't seem special.  If he could be had super-cheap ($500K), I wouldn't throw up.

Crain (29) - type B - 0.8 WAR, 3.45 FIP, 4.10 xFIP, 3.04 ERA in '10.  Seems to be generating a lot of interest as set-up guy.  I'd take him at the right price - $1.5-2mil maybe? - but I think someone else will offer more.

Cruz (30) - 0.1 WAR (only 5.1 IP all in April) - was cut for no apparent reason, and not picked up by anyone else.  Career FIP is 4.19, xFIP is 4.35, ERA is 4.15, 9.15 K/9, 4.72 BB/9.  I'd want to figure out what the heck happened before thinking about offering any kind of contract.

Dessens (40) - had a -0.3 WAR for the Mets, 4.72 FIP, 5.56 xFIP, 2.30 ERA, 3.06 K/9, 3.06 BB/9 for the Mets last year.  No thanks.

Donnelly (39) - had a -0.8 WAR, 6.47 FIP, 5.62 xFIP, 5.58 ERA in '10.  Pass.

Durbin (33) - 0.3 WAR, 3.97 FIP, 4.19 xFIP, 3.80 ERA in '10.  8.26 K/9 and 3.54 BB/9 compared to 5.90 K/9 and 3.93 BB/9 career.  Doesn't seem like a bad 6-7th inning guy, but nothing special.  League minimum offer or minor league contract OK, more than that, no thanks.

Escobar (34) - did not pitch in '10, seems to me I remember him from somewhere.  Had only 20.2 IP in '09 and 5 IP in '08.  I'd say he owes us a year at a minor league contract.

Farnsworth (35) - 1.0 WAR, 3.06 FIP, 3.63 xFIP in '10, 8.49 K/9, 2.64 BB/9.  Actually seemed useful last year.  HR/9 of 0.56 is biggest change from Yankee years (1.35 and 2.24).  Might do well in Citi.  One year $1.5-2mil? 

Frasor (33) - type A - 0.9 WAR, 3.31 FIP, 3.85 xFIP good peripherals, not worth losing a draft pick over.

Gaudin (28) - had a -1.0 WAR, 6.16 FIP, 4.91 xFIP in '10.  2.20 HR/9 compared to 1.07 career average seems the biggest culprit.  Won 11 games for the A's in '07 as a starter.  4.68 career FIP, 4.69 career xFIP = pass.

Guerrier (32) - 0.2 WAR, 4.23 FIP, 4.53 xFIP, 3.17 ERA in '10.  5.32 K/9, 2.79 BB/9.  No thanks.

Heilman (32) - type B - 0.1 WAR, 4.47 FIP, 4.72 xFIP, 4.50 ERA in '10.  K/9 down to 6.88 from career 7.79.  Pass.

Howry (37) - had a -0.6 WAR, 6.36 FIP, 5.97 xFIP, 7.71 ERA in '10.  Pass.

Lincoln (36) - 0.0 WAR, 4.35 FIP, 5.29 xFIP, 7.32 ERA in '10.  No thanks.

MacDougal (34) - 0.0 WAR, 4.36 FIP, 5.03 xFIP, 7.23 ERA in 18.2 IP in '10.  Minor league deal maybe.

D Mathis (27) - had a -0.5 WAR, 7.74 ERA, 5.07 xFIP, 6.04 ERA in '10.  No thanks.

G Mota (37) - 0.36 WAR, 3.86 FIP, 4.76 xFIP, 4.33 ERA in '10.  Getting up there in age.  Omar might've but I wouldn't.

F Nieve (28) - had a -0.1 WAR, 6.08 FIP, 4.74 xFIP, 6.00 ERA in '10 for the Mets.  8.14 K/9 is the only nice thing to say.  Pass.

Owings (28) - had a -0.1 WAR, 5.03 FIP, 5.10 xFIP, 5.11 ERA in '10.  9.45 K/9.  Career .293/.323/.538 hitter in 198 major league PAs.  Worth a shot in the minors as the next Ankiel?

Park (38) - 0.1 WAR, 4.32 FIP, 4.07 xFIP, 4.66 ERA in '10.  1.5 WAR in '09.  Not a bad 6th/7th inning guy for the right price - $1.5-2mil max I'd say.

Putz (34) - type B - 1.5 WAR, 2.52 FIP, 2.87 xFIP, 2.83 ERA, 10.83 K/9, 2.50 BB/9.  Oh, THAT'S the guy the Mets traded for!  Will probably close somewhere in '11.  I'd give him 2 years $5mil to set up though, if we had protection against a relapse (a Lackey-like option for a club option year at league minimum if he has a recurrence of previous injury).

Riske (34) - 0.0 WAR for second straight year.  Pass.

Saito (41) - 1.2 WAR, 2.43 FIP, 2.83 xFIP, 2.83 ERA, 11.50 K/9, 2.83 BB/9.  Old but not showing it (yet).  1 year $2-3mil with a club option at similar.

Sampson (33) - had a -0.5 WAR, 5.91 FIP, 4.22 xFIP, 5.93 ERA in '10.  4.75 K/9.  Pass.

S Shields (35) - had a -0.4 WAR, 5.43 FIP, 5.13 xFIP after a -0.1 WAR in '09.  Pass.

Uehara (36) - 1.4 WAR, 2.40 FIP, 2.91 xFIP, 2.86 ERA, 11.25 K/9 in '10.  Saved 13 games at year-end for O's.  I'd be surprised if they don't ask him back.  I'd take a flier on him, but '09 (6.46 K/9, 3.56 FIP, 4.51 xFIP in 12 starts) are troubling.  Could be (like Takahashi) better suited to relief.  1 year $1mil.

T Walker (35) - 0.2 WAR, 3.90 FIP, 3.84 xFIP, 3.57 ERA, 7.64 K/9.  Seems like ages ago he was a Mets farmhand.  I'd offer a minor league deal, but he'll probably set up for a (different) bad team somewhere.

Jeff Weaver (34) - had a -0.3 WAR, 4.79 FIP, 5.24 xFIP, 6.09 ERA, 5.28 K/9 for the Dodgers in '10.  Pass.

Wheeler (33) - 0.1 WAR, 4.11 FIP, 3.90 xFIP, 3.35 ERA, 8.57 K/9 for the Rays in '10.  Decent middle reliever.  1 year $1mil?

Wright (36) - 0.0 WAR, 4.23 FIP, 4.66 xFIP, 4.17 ERA in '10.  4.32 K/9>  Nothing special.  Pass.

LEFTIES:

Beimel (34) - 0.1 WAR, 4.59 FIP, 4.94 xFIP, 3.40 ERA, 4.20 K/9 in '10.  Pass.

Chen (34) - 1.3 WAR, 4.54 FIP, 5.01 xFIP, 4.17 ERA, 12-7 in 23 starts for KC.  A long way from making the 9/11 start for the Mets.  Pass.

Choate (35) - type B - 0.5 WAR, 3.50 FIP, 3.55 xFIP, 4.23 ERA, 8.06 K/9 for the Rays in '10.  Definitely worth a look as a lefty specialist (.201 ave vs lefties, .378 vs righties).

Downs (35) - type A - 1.2 WAR, 3.03 FIP, 3.51 xFIP, 2.64 ERA in '10 for Jays.  Too pricey I think particularly with draft pick too.

Feliciano (34) - type B - 0.8 WAR, 3.22 FIP, 3.86 xFIP, 3.30 ERA for Mets in '10.  Think I agree with offering Arb seeing what else is out there for lefties.

Flores (35) - had a -0.5 WAR, 5.85 FIP, 5.19 xFIP, 3.19 ERA in '10.  Pass.

Hendrickson (37) - 0.4 WAR, 4.09 FIP, 4.13 xFIP, 5.26 ERA, 6.57 K/9 in '10.  Could be worth a look at 1 year $1mil or so if Feliciano doesn't accept Arb.

Mahay (40) - 0.1 WAR, 4.23 FIP, 3.84 xFIP in '10 for Twins.  Pass.

Ohman (32) - 0.3 WAR, 3.98 FIP, 4.24 xFIP, 3.21 ERA, 9.21 K/9 in '10.  Reasonably successful vs righties too - .289 ave vs R in '10, .222 ave vs L.  Interesting option.

D Reyes (34) - 0.0 WAR, 4.26 FIP, 4.58 xFIP, 3.55 ERA, 5.92 K/9 in '10 for Cards.  Has earmarks of Dave Duncan project.  Let the Cards keep him.

Rhodes (41) - 0.9 WAR, 3.24 FIP, 3.84 xFIP, 2.29 ERA, 8.18 K/9 in '10 for Reds.  1.0 WAR in '09, 1.2 WAR in '08.  Doesn't seem to have slowed down yet.  1 year, $2-3mil?

Romero (35) - had a -0.4 WAR, 5.40 FIP, 5.38 xFIP, 3.68 ERA for Phils in '10.  Pass.

Seay (33) - 0.8 WAR, 3.61 FIP, 4.72 xFIP, 4.25 ERA, 6.84 K/9 in '10 for Tigers.  1.0 WAR in '09 and '08 each.  Career BAA vs L is .258, vs R is .253.  Good middle relief option - 1 year $2-3mil.

Schoeneweis (37) - had -0.1 WAR in '10 for his 4th straight negative WAR season.  How much money did Omar give him?  Pass.

Tallet (33) - had a -1.5 WAR, 6.70 FIP, 5.53 xFIP, 6.40 ERA in '10 for Jays.  They tried to convert him to a starter in '09 and it didn't work.  Could be worth a minor league contract to see if he can go back to being a reliever.

Tankersley (28) had -0.7 WAR for second straight year for Marlins.  8.25 FIP, 6.64 xFIP.  No thanks.

Randy Williams (35) - had -0.1 WAR, 5.24 FIP, 5.89 xFIP, 5.40 ERA, 7.92 K/9 in '10.  Pass.

 

PHEW!  So out of 59 relievers, I have 27 of them split into these categories:

Set-up Guy:  (12) Dotel, Fuentes, Gregg, Qualls, Rauch, Wood, Balfour, Crain, Park, Putz, Saito, Uehara

7th inning guy:  (5) Bonser, Seay, Wheeler, Ohman (L), Rhodes (L)

Other (minor league deal, major league minimum guy):  (7) Corpas, Cruz (depending on what happened last year), Escobar (I know it hurts!), MacDougal, Owings (as a hitter?), T Walker, Tallet (L).

Lefty Specialist:  (3) Choate, Feliciano, Hendrickson

Here are the free agent pitchers:

Bannister (30) - 0.0 WAR in '10, 2.9 in '09.  Career FIP is 4.77, xFIP is 4.86.  Probably not worth a minor league offer.

Bedard (32) - did not pitch in '10, 81 innings in '09.  Career FIP is 3.66, xFIP is 3.88.  8.77 K/9 career.  A minor league offer or incentive laden deal may look smart if he can get healthy ever. 

Bonderman (28) - 0.9 WAR in '10, have to go back to '07 to find a number over 1.0.  Still FIP in '10 was 4.90, xFIP 4.74.  Career FIP is 4.27, xFIP 4.11.  At 28, could be worth a minor league offer.

Bush (31) - 0.1 WAR in '10, 5.13 FIP, 4.98 xFIP.  Not worth a look.

Chen (34) - went 12-7 for the Royals in '10, WAR was 1.3.  FIP was 4.54, xFIP 5.01.  Not worth a look.

Correia (30) - type B - FIP 4.71 in '10, xFIP 4.19.  Gave up 1.24 HR/9 in Petco.  Doesn't figure to do better in Citi.  0.1 WAR in '10.  Pass.

Davis (35) - came back from cancer in '10.  5.22 FIP, 4.68 xFIP.  Had 1.7 WAR in '09 before getting sick.  Probably not worth a look.

De La Rosa (30) - type A - 1.7 WAR in '10.  4.30 FIP, 3.77 xFIP.  Has been called "Ollie Perez Lite" (which is a complement  - I think - relatively speaking at least).  Let someone else overpay for him particularly if it will cost us a 2nd round pick.

Duchscherer (33) - was a top set-up man/middle reliever before spending most of '09 and '10 on DL.  May be worth a minor league contract on that basis. 

Francis (29) - missed all of '09.  1.9 WAR in 104 IP in '10, 3.88 FIP, 3.94 xFIP.  In '06-'07, compiled 7.7 WAR combined, going 30-20.  Could be very interesting cheap starter / minor league contract guy.

Garcia (35) - 1.3 WAR in '10, 4.77 FIP, 4.59 xFIP.  Someone else will probably offer a major league deal.  Pass.

Garland (31) - type B - 0.8 WAR in '10, 4.41 FIP, 4.35 xFIP.  Let someone else overpay for him.  Pass.

Harden (29) - put up -0.7 WAR in '10, 6.31 FIP, 5.90 xFIP.  6.07 BB/9.  Career K/9 is 9.13 but just doesn't seem healthy.  Ever.

Harang (33) - 4.60 FIP, 4.62 xFIP in '10, 0.9 WAR.  In '09 had a 2.4 WAR.  Did win 16 games in '06 and '07 and career K/BB ratio of nearly 3:1.  Could be worth a $3-5mil contract? 

Lee (32) - Pipe dream - Mets trade Bay, Castillo and Perez to the Giants for Zito, then trade Beltran to the Sox for Ellsbury, then swoop in and offer Lee...  yeah right.

Looper (36) - did not pitch in '10.  Pass.

Martinez (39) - did not pitch in '10.  Pass.

Lopez (35) - 0.6 WAR in '10, 5.21 FIP, 4.70 xFIP.  Went 7-16 for the D-Backs.  Pass.

Millwood (36) - In '09, went 13-10 with a 3.67 ERA, FIP was 4.80, xFIP was 4.78; in '10 went 4-16 with 5.10 ERA, FIP was 4.86, xFIP was 4.66.  Seems like he was probably pretty much the same pitcher both years.  Could be worth a $3-5mil contract, but will probably get more elsewhere.

Moehler (39) - 0.0 WAR in '10, have to go back to 2005 for the last time he was over 1.0.  Pass.

Moyer (48) - 0.4 WAR last two years each.  pass.

Olsen (27) - 0.6 WAR in '10.  4.45 FIP, 4.39 xFIP.  Still young enough to be worth a minor league deal.

Padilla (33) - 1.0 WAR in '10, 7.96 K/9 and 2.27 BB/9 in 95 innings;  2.1 WAR in '09.  Could be worth a minor league deal.

Pavano (35) - type A - 3.2 WAR in '10, 3.7 WAR in '09.  FIP was 4.02, xFIP was 4.01, went 17-11 for the Twins.  Let someone else overpay.

Penny (33) - 1.1 WAR in '10, 2.5 WAR in '09.  3.40 FIP, 3.77 xFIP.  I'd worry about him replicating these results without Dave Duncan.  Pass.

Pettitte (39) - Yankees or bust. 

Robertson (33) - 0.5 WAR in '10 and '09.  4.80 FIP, 5.07 xFIP.  Pass.

Snell (29) - had a -0.7 WAR in '10, went 0-5 with 6.45 FIP, 5.76 xFIP.  Pass.

Suppan (36) - 0.0 WAR in '10 after -0.7 in '09 and -0.2 in '08.  Seems a long way away from the guy that pitched us out of the playoffs in '06.  Pass.

Takahashi (36) - can't re-sign until May at this point.

Vazquez (34) - type B - is it NY or the Yankees?  -0.2 WAR in '10, 5.56 FIP, 4.90 xFIP.  In '09 had 6.5 WAR.  Second in the majors in strikeouts in the 2000s.  Probably worth a look at $5-7mil if he'd come.

Washburn (36) - missed all of '10 due to "contract issues" (him thinking he was worth far more than he was).  4.58 FIP and 4.73 xFIP in '09, with 2.2 WAR.  Pass.

Webb (32) - pitched 4 innings in '09 and none in '10.  Put up 19.9 WAR in the 3 years before that, going 48-20.  Has to be worth a look if he seems healthy.  Sheets money ($10mil)?  I'd pass.  2 years at say $10-12mil total with incentives?  I'd do that.

Wellemeyer (32) - had a -0.6 WAR in '10 and -0.3 WAR in '09.  Pass.

Young (32) - 0.2 WAR in '10, -0.5 WAR in '09 with a combined 96 IP.  Could be worth a minor league deal.  I like any pitcher whose name reads "C Young" in the box score.

So out of all 35 of those, I find three sparsely populated categories:

Worth a minor league contract (7):  Bonderman, Duchscherer (as reliever), Garcia, Harden, Olsen, Padilla, Young

Worth an incentive-laden contract due to injury concerns (2) :  Bedard (2 years $2mil plus incentives), Webb (2 years $10-12mil plus incentives)

Worth a major league contract (7):  De La Rosa (1 year $8mil); Francis (1 year $900K); Garland (1 year $5mil); Harang (1 year $4mil maybe with an option year); Millwood (1 year $4-5mil); Pavano (1 year $5mil); Vazquez (2 years $14-15mil). 

I did a study of World Series winning managers and found this:  not counting player-managers, there were 19 guys who won their first WS with their first team.  The average age was 43.4 years old when they won their first WS.  There were another 17 who won with their second team.  Their average age was 47.8 years old.  There were 10 who won their first WS who were on at least their 3rd job with an average age of 56.4 when they won.  Of those 10, Alvin Dark had previously won a pennant in his first job and Whitey Herzog's first two jobs were as interim manager for part of one season each time. 

What does that tell us about the men the Mets are considering?  Backman (51), Hale (45), Oberkfell (54), Teufel (52) and Jauss (53) have not managed in the Bigs before.  Only Tommy Lasorda and John Keane were over 50 when they won their first WS with their first team.  Keane was in his 4th year managing the Cards when they won in '64.  Lasorda was in his 6th year with the Dodgers when they won in '81.  Four others were under 40 when they won (Weaver, McKechnie, Kelly and McGraw).  And 13 were in their 40s.  Greats from this category include Lasorda, Southworth, Schoendienst, Alston, Sparky, Weaver, Tom Kelly and John McGraw.  Also Houk, Scioscia, Murtaugh, and Davey.

Clint Hurdle (52) has 8 seasons with Rockies, winning one pennant in 2007.  In this category, you have some all-time great managers:  Durocher, Mack, Piniella, McCarthy, Huggins, LaRussa, Dick Williams, Leyland along with Gil Hodges, Francona and Charlie Manuel.  Hurdle's winning percentage with the Rockies is .461.  Miller Huggins' w% in his first job was .455; LaRussa's was .506; Leyland's was .496; Hodges' was .420; Francona's was .440.  So yes, most of the guys on this list were very successful in their first gigs, but 4 had losing records and LaRussa's was barely .500. 

Terry Collins and Bob Melvin would both fit into the 3+ team category.  Of the 8 men who won a WS in this category, Jack McKeon at 73 years old is kind of a fluke, I think.  Stengel, Lemon, Torre and Martin all managed the Yankees for their first.  Leaving Fred Haney, Bobby Cox (counting his two stints with the Braves as two jobs) and Chuck Tanner.  Haney managed the awful St. Louis Browns for 3 years, then the awful Pirates for 3 more before landing a gig with the Braves an dwinning back to back pennants in '57-58.  Tanner managed the "We Are Family" Pirates - before that he had one year with the A's and before that 6 with the White Sox. 

Between the first two categories, you have a who's who of great managers.  I would suggest not counting the Yankees' managers from the 3rd category as their teams were loaded well beyond the Mets' means in today's game.  So you have four guys - McKeon, Cox, Tanner and Haney.  Of those, Cox is the only one I would describe as a great manager.

So bottom line for me is please don't give me Collins or Melvin.  The first-time guys are intriguing.  And Hurdle, I think too.   

http://sports.espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/news/story?id=5631085

ESPN features the above article saying that the Mets and K-Rod are going to an arbitrator to see whether or not they have the right to place him on the restricted list.  They have already saved $3.1mil in 2010 from this action which would become official.  If they want to do the same next year and essentially cancel the rest of his contract, they'd still owe him $1.9mil for 2011 and would "likely owe the $3.5mil buyout option for 2012". 

Question:  attrocious contract aside, is it better to be rid of K-Rod entirely?  Try to restructure his contract and keep him here (presumably for more years and fewer dollars per year)?  If we are cutting ties, who will close next year?

As I understand it, the Mets have Feliciano ($2.9mil), Maine ($3.3mil), Escobar ($1.25mil), Takahashi ($1mil), Sean Green ($975K) and Tatis ($850K) as their expiring contracts of players they probably won't / can't get back.  Could get Feliciano back, Takahashi too, though I don't want him as a starter.  Further, Santana is set to make $1.5mil more in 2011 than in 2010, Wright +$4mil, Reyes' option is for $11mil, a $2mil raise, and Irigashi is set to make $500K more next year than this year.  But the biggest is Bay, who made $6.5mil in 2010 but is slated for $16mil in 2011.  Bay's raise may be muted somewhat as I'm not sure how the signing bonus ($8.5mil) gets allocated.

They also have Pelfrey, Pagan and Dickey eligible for arbitration and substantial raises (percentage-wise) from $500K, $1.45mil and $600K respectively.  Pelfrey is a Boros client.

The big x-factor is K-Rod and whether they can release him from his contract, with its $17.5mil vesting option for 2012.  Fortunately, if they are not able to release him legally, he'll need to finish 55 games next year for the option to vest automatically, meaning they'll only be on the hook for the $3.5mil buyout.  (Any questions on whether Omar should come back?)


With K-Rod back and no salaries dumped (Ollie, Castillo), the Mets' payroll will be $7.225mil more in 2011 than in 2010, before Pagan / Dickey raises.  Potentially could save a few bucks by replacing Reyes' option year with an extension - say 3 years, $27mil?  My guess is that, even if they release K-Rod outright, they'll still only be about even - but most likely already have a higher payroll.  And they'll have no closer.

So is it reasonable to think the Mets will have any money to spend this off-season?  I think the off-season will be spent scouring the bargain basements for more RA Dickeys and seeing if they can get anyone to take Beltran, Ollie, Castillo or Bay (I think they should go there) off their hands. 

Albert Pujols became the 3rd youngest player ever to hit 400 home runs.  Given his current age, he'd have to average 40 per season for the next 5 to keep up with ARod.  Rodriguez will have to hit 151 more before he retires to catch Aaron and 158 more to catch Bonds.  Let's say 32 per year for 5 more years.  So all things considered, who is the greatest home run hitter of all time?

Poll

Who is the greatest home run hitter of all time?

14%

Barry Bonds

25 votes

23%

Hank Aaron

39 votes

49%

Babe Ruth

84 votes

4%

Alex Rodriguez

8 votes

7%

Albert Pujols

13 votes

169 votes | Poll has closed

By Career WAR as a Met, looking mostly at every day players:

Player   Career WAR    Best Season

Strawberry  37.7      6.7

Wright         30.4      7.8

Alfonzo        29.1      7.0

Beltran        26.8      8.0

Hernandez 26.5      6.5

HoJo           24.7      7.7

Piazza         24.6      5.5

Reyes         21.8      5.9

Mookie       19.4      3.2

Olerud        18.6     8.1

Stearns      18.5     5.5

Cleon         17.6     7.6

Note - Bernard Gilkey ties Olerud for the best single season in terms of WAR by an every day player with 8.1 though Gilkey had a total of 11.1 WAR in 3 seasons.

Pitchers:  Seaver 75.8 (9.5); Koosman 41.8 (6.8); Gooden 41.2 (11.7); Matlack 27.0 (8.6); Leiter 26.3 (6.5).  Gooden had 3 seasons in his career with better than a 3.8 WAR, all before he was 22.


My take-away from this is that Wright is likely to pass Strawberry, Gooden and Koosman by this time in 2012.

Let's assume the Mets are sitting at 42-39 at the half-way point, 3 games back in the wild-card.  Santana and Pelfrey have continued to pitch well.  Maine and Niese have shown enough to be at least passable.  Ollie has been relegated to the bullpen.  Which of these pitchers would you be most interested in?

1)  Kevin Millwood- making $11mil in last year of 5-year deal - 0-4 this year with 3.69 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 41 K in 53.2 IP.  Let's say the O's ask for Tejada, Holt and Thole.

2)  Cliff Lee - making $9 mil in last year of contract - 1-1 with 2.01 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 15 K in 22.2 IP.  Let's assume we could negotiate an extention with Lee before completing the trade.  Mariners ask for Fernando, Mejia, Flores and Tejada.

3)  Jake Peavy - making $33mil in '11 and '12 with $22mil option for '13 ($4mil buyout) - 2-2 with 5.56 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 39 K in 42.2 IP.  Last 2 starts he's 2-0 with 7 hits and 1 walk, 17 K in 15 IP.  White Sox ask for Fernando, Gee and Nieuwenhuis.

4)  Roy Oswalt - making $15 mil this year, $16mil next year and has a $16mil club option for '12 ($2mil buyout).  2-4 with 2.62 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 45 K in 48 IP.  Astros ask for Fernando, Mejia, Flores and Tejada.


Are those realistic trades?  Which would you do?  Or would you sit tight and play our own kids?

He has appeared in 8 of the Mets first 13 games with 9 innings pitched, not counting the appearance where he didn't record an out.  He's on a pace for 100 appearances and 112 innings out of the bullpen.  No reliever has appeared in 100 games since Mike Marshall won the Cy Young award in 1974.  In fact, only three players in baseball history have pitched in more than 70 games in a season before turning 24.  The immortal Byung-Hyung Kim did it twice, in '01 and '02, Mitch "Wild Thing" Williams in '86 and '87 and Oscar Villareal for the D-Backs in '03.  Villareal went on to pitch a total of 31.2 innings in the next two seasons combined.  He was back to 90+ innings the following year.  He has not pitched in the majors since 2008, done at 26 years old.  Williams had a nice career, with as many as 43 saves in a season, and 192 in his career.  While he pitched only 68 innings as a 23-year old, he never missed significant time until he was 28.  His career was over at 32.  And of course Kim, who they tried to turn into a starter at age 24.  His career too was over at age 28. 

With Joel Pineiro signing with the Angels and Doug Davis signing with the Brewers, Bengie Molina going back to San Francisco, the list of top free agents is growing thin.  So far, it seems the Mets have solved their vacancy in left field and added a bullpen guy and a couple of backup catchers.  Seems like there is still much to be done and pitchers and catchers report in less than a month.  Which of these guys would you most like to see the Mets sign?

Poll

Which of these guys would you most like to see the Mets sign?

8%

Orlando Hudson

12 votes

5%

Felipe Lopez

8 votes

1%

Miguel Tejada

2 votes

1%

Johnny Damon

2 votes

5%

Jon Garland

8 votes

53%

Ben Sheets

74 votes

5%

Eric Bedard

8 votes

2%

Pedro Martinez

3 votes

5%

Carlos Delgado

7 votes

3%

Xavier Nady

5 votes

2%

Chan Ho Park

3 votes

2%

Jarrod Washburn

3 votes

2%

Randy Winn

3 votes

138 votes | Poll has closed

Here is the list of SP free agents still available in order of ESPN's free agent ranking:  Pineiro, Sheets, Bedard, Pedro, Doug Davis, Washburn.  Also the Cubans Chapman and Noel Arguelles who are not likely to help in 2010 but have good upside down the road.  Them pickins is mighty slim!  Sounds like Bedard is not likely to be ready for opening day.  If he could be had at say $5mil, would that trump Pineiro at $3 for $30mil and Sheets at 1 for $8mil (assuming he doesn't get the $12 he's looking for)?  What about Washburn for $3mil or so? 

Bay obviously doesn't want to come.  So to my thinking, we're down to Holliday and/or making a trade.  Does anyone have a sense if Miguel Cabrera is available?  Would the Tigers take Murphy, Ike Davis, and Mejia?  

In Cabrera, yes, he's got warts and is not cheap, but he turns 27 in April and has a 3-year average line of .311/.383/.549 with 35 home runs and 116 rbi playing entirely in pitchers' parks.  He would be a pretty solid bet to put up some big offensive numbers.

First thing to do is to make sure that if the Padres are going to trade Adrian Gonzalez, they trade him to the Mets.  I'd offer Fernando Martinez, Ike Davis (expendable with Gonzalez coming in), John Maine, Wilmer Flores and Brad Holt.  If you think that's too much, then it's probably just enough.

Second thing to do is to see how much the Diamondbacks want to dump Chris Snyder.  I'd offer Castillo, Mejia and Nick Evans for Snyder and Brandon Webb (last year of his contract at $8.5mil).  The D-backs do this trade because they need 2b help, they hate the Snyder contract (3 years $12mil), are afraid they can't keep Webb and because it opens up additonal payroll for them to make a run at Lackey.

Then I'd see if we could sign both Gonzalez and Webb to long-term deals.  Given that Webb missed almost the whole season last year, he might sign something like 4 years $50mil if we tear up the $8.5mil for 2010.  And Gonzalez, I'd offer Teixeira money as a start. 

Third thing to do is to offer Jason Bay a 3-year $45mil contract.  I don't love Holliday, and I'm suspicious of any player whose numbers seem so dependant on playing in a certain ballpark.  Given the Mets' first year in Citi, I don't want to take a chance of being tied to a guy who has suddenly become a .276 hitter with 38 doubles and 15 home runs for $16mil per over 5-6 years.  And since I've used all our trading chips on Webb and Gonzalez, and the drop-off is significant after Bay, I see no other choice.  How's that for a ringing endorsement for a $15mil a year player?  "We have no other choice!" 

Then we need to shore up the bullpen by bringing back Octavio Dotel and bringing in Rafael Betancourt.  Last 2 years Dotel has been healthy, pitching to a 3.33 ERA in '09 with 75K in 62.1 IP pitching in a hitters' park in Chicago.  Betancourt has career ERA of 3.16 and WHIP of 1.12 with more than 1 K per IP. 

Yes, I'd move Murphy to second base.  First of all, if he can hit like he did in the second half last year (.282 with 27 doubles) he'll hit plenty for a middle infielder.  And secondly, he showed great range and hands at first last year.  I think he'd be at least passable at 2nd.  I'd bring in someone like Craig Counsell or Adam Kennedy as a utility infielder and as a back-up in case Murphy is no better at second than he was in left field.

And the last thing is to bring in some veteran pitchers on minor league deals like Contreras, Prior, Brett Tomko, Jason Schimdt.  Get 2-3 guys like that for the "break glass in case of emergency" situations.

So the lineup is Reyes (ss), Wright (3b), Gonzalez (1b), Beltran (cf), Bay (lf), Francoeur (rf), Murphy (2b), Snyder (c).  Santos would share catching duties again, with Thole in AAA.  Bring back Tatis, Pagan and Counsell as utility players.

The rotation would be Santana, Webb, Pelfrey, Perez, Niese.

The bullpen would be Rodriguez, Dotel, Betancourt, Feliciano, Parnell, Stokes and Misch. 

By my count, if Gonzalez and Webb both agree to long-term contracts starting this year, the Payroll would be about $150mil.  If not, it'd be around $135mil.