I have generally been thinking about the RLEC contract (the 'super-expiring' asset) in terms of what it can bring back at the trade deadline, but tonight I thought I would step through a possible scenario if we just sit tight.  So, suppose we sit tight, let the contract fall off the books.  I'm going to make (and justify) three assumptions of what would happen in the off season in such a scenario: 1) we relinquish the rights to restricted FAs Frye and Diogu, making them unrestricted FAs; 2) we pick up the team option on Outlaw; and 3) we don't pick up the team option on Blake, making him an unrestricted FA.  (Hear me out, Blake fans, the plan doesn't necessarily mean losing Blake, though it is a risk.)  Now, to justify the assumptions: 1) Frye and Diogu are out of the rotation and at this point have fairly limited value for the team, certainly the around 9M cap hold required for each to keep them as RFAs is not justified; 2) The 3.6M of Travis' option is less than his perceived value in the league, hence we would run a real risk of losing him to free agency if he becomes unrestricted; 3) Steve Blake is a big picture guy, who loves the organization and the town and whose first choice would be to come back.  The mid-level exception would be a raise for him, so we would have plenty of room to sign him to a new, comfortable contract after any other free agent signings have been completed, with relatively limited risk that he would quickly bolt for another club.  There is risk of losing Blake with this scenario, but it is, I believe, a moderate risk.

Okay, so under these assumptions, here's what our roster (for salary cap purposes) would be:

Joel Przybilla (6,857,725), Greg Oden (5,361,240), LaMarcus Aldridge (5,844,827), Travis Outlaw (3,600,000), Nicolas Batum (1,118,760), Martell Webster (4,319,654), Brandon Roy (3,910,816), Rudy Fernandez (1,165,320),  Jerrod Bayless (2,143,080), Sergio Rodriguez (1,576,696), and Darius Miles (9,000,000). Further, we need to place a cap hold for Koponen and Freeland, which is (together) another 1,681,600.

This leaves a total of 46,579,718.  Even if the salary cap doesn't rise, that gives us around 12M in cap space to sign a free agent or work through a jointly advantageous sign and trade, which is roughly the size of the LaFrentz contract anyhow.  We then would be able to re-sign Blake if so desired, up to whatever is allowed under the CBA.    Further, we have a tremendous number of young players if we want to then consolidate talent, either in that sign and trade, or perhaps on draft day.

This little exercise makes me quite comfortable with sitting tight and letting RLEC fall off the books -- the team reserves flexibility for improving the team in the off season, after having seen how things fall out through the rest of this season and the playoffs.  Of course, if the perfect deal falls in their laps, pull the trigger, but having seen all of the tortuous trades that folks have been pitching, I'm just not seeing such a deal at this time, at least none that I believe the other team would entertain.  Clearly broken teams like the Bulls will actually be easier trade partners at that time than they are now.

Anyhow, I offer this up as therapy for the trade deadline junkies.  We may just have another roller-coaster draft day in our future!  I think I've talked myself into being happy sitting tight.  The one sticking point might be the risk of losing Blake, but I truly believe that he's 'on-board' enough with folks here that he and his agent would understand the rationale and play ball with the Blazers.

Josh Childress signs with a Greek club, leaves NBA:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=3501488

This is a really big deal, throws a monkeywrench into the whole restricted FA thing.  Watch for loads of people to get extensions that they otherwise wouldn't.  Like B. Jennings leaving Arizona for Europe, this changes the set of options that the NBA execs were assuming when they drafted rules.

On the flip side, what does it say about Josh Childress that he'd rather go play in relative anonymity in Greece instead of in the NBA?  This is the opposite of the decision that Rudy made -- choosing to take (short term) more money to play against inferior competition.  Will NBA teams still be there making offers three years from now if he wants to come back?  Not so sure.

With the limited FA pickings next summer, it would be nice if some of these RFAs this year -- in particular Luol Deng, who would be a great fit on this team -- would become unrestricted FAs next year.  They can do this, at substantial personal risk, by signing a 1 year qualifying offer.   For Deng, this amount comes in much less than the mid-level exception, which the Blazers can offer to anyone.  How about taking the risk out of his  taking the qualifying offer?  Sign Deng to a 5 year mid-level exception with a player option after the first year.  The Bulls can match it (and likely would), but he could simply opt-out (or not opt-in as is done for the option) and be a FA next year, when we will have the dough to give him what he's worth.  As it stands, it looks like nobody is going to give this guy a serious payday this year.  With the 5 year deal, he has his insurance policy against something happening in the year to ruin his chances.  And with the player option after the first year, he can immediately opt out after next season, thus becoming an unrestricted FA, everybody wins.  Are there any rules against putting in a player option after the first year?  I don't think so -- although it may affect things like Bird rights or whatever (not sure).

"And though a league source said Ellis has drawn sign-and-trade interest from the Heat, Cavs and Blazers, nothing is likely to materialize. Any scenario would require approval from the Warriors, who are intent on keeping Ellis and Biedrins."

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/07/14/SPJB11OM4E.DTL

I think he's a hell of a player, and would fit the 'combo guard with B. Roy' model for the roster.  He's a real scoring guard, super quick.  We'd presumably give Raef plus assets (SRod, Bayless + X, where X could be one of the usuals).  What would it take for you to pull the trigger on such a deal?  (About 8 nanoseconds?)  

If the extra X were Webs or Travis, we'd need some SF help back, don't you think?  Or would we be happy spreading the time at three around to Rudy?  Imagine an Ellis, Roy, Rudy, LA, GO lineup, that would move.

Not too many players that would make me think of dealing with the current roster, at least not this year -- Ellis is one of them.

I was interested in why Bayless went from being a consensus top 5 pick to showing up at 11 for us to snag with a clever trade.  Last week, Chad Ford wrote a column about how he comes up with his mock draft.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2008/insider/columns/story?columnist=ford_chad&page=Tiers-080619

In it, he describes a 'tier' system, whereby he places players in tiers based on where GMs have the players on their draft board.  Obviously, Rose and Beasley were alone in tier 1.  Interestingly, Mayo and Bayless were alone in tier 2, because

"Virtually every team I spoke with has Mayo and Bayless as the No. 3 and No. 4 picks in the draft, regardless of team need. A few teams argued that Mayo should be in Tier 1, but for now, I left him in Tier 2."

I think this is part of the reason why Bayless fell -- most teams in the lottery had favorites that they talked themselves into valuing over everyone but Rose, Beasley and Mayo.   Instead of taking BPA, they either filled a need or chose their individual fave.   I don't think Bayless falling has anything to do with Bayless himself, but more to do with how teams manage their draft process and think about who to take.  This is an amazing coup for the Blazers -- because of how they acquired him, but also likely because of the disinformation that they spread trying to dampen hype around their targeted player.  Exciting stuff.

I've seen Bill Simmons (and only him) mention Brandon's knee on a few occasions, and I read it as him spewing his typical sour grapes hate towards the Blazers.  Does anyone have the true scoop on the state of his knees, what the risks are, and whether this is something to really be aware of moving forward?  BTW, I can't stand Simmons, he appears obsessed with dissing the Blazers at every opportunity, he must really be hurting inside.

how will it work in the summer of 2009?   We have to offer a qualifying offer to Webs (and Frye and Jack), then they will be restricted FA.  If we sign them to large amounts, then salary cap space will be tight.  Can we first sign another FA, using whatever cap space there is, then match Webs on whatever RFA offer he got?  My understanding is that there is a sequence that is important: first sign non-Blazer FAs, so that it stays within salary cap, then sign Blazer FAs or extend contracts, where the salary cap does not impose restrictions.  Does this seem correct?