In spite of the Stars recent 10-0-1 run, I'm leading off this edition of By The Numbers with a pair of negative stats that I believe explain why the Stars were able to go on the run that they did and why they've crashed and burned these last time nights.

12-21-2 - The Stars record when the opponent scores first, giving them a winning percentage of .333.

Not surprisingly, Pittsburgh leads the NHL with a .500 winning percentage when trailing after the first period. In fact, Pittsburgh and St. Louis are the only two teams to have winning records in regulation (that is, if you throw out their OT and shootout losses) in these games.

Truth be told, that's not that bad when compared to the rest of the league as the Stars sit 12th in that category.

But this next stat is...

2-20-2 - The Stars record when trailing after the first period, giving them a winning percentage of .083. Which is dead last in the NHL.

Not sure I need to add anything. But I will mention that Pittsburgh also leads this category with a 9-11-1 mark.

And if you need any other statistical proof...

0-8-0 - The Stars record when allowing the opposition to open the scoring within the first five minutes of the game.

Wednesday and Friday nights also represented the first time all year that the Stars had allowed at least one goal in the opening five minutes in consecutive games.

But let's forget stats for just a second. Because I don't think anybody really needs them to see that the Stars, as pesky as they are, just aren't very good at coming from behind to win games when they have to chase almost the entire game.

Sure, they have shown an ability to ramp their game back up and get back in it like they did back in December when San Jose took an early 2-0 lead within the first 1:22 of the game.

That night in Silicon Valley, Mike Riberio and Brenden Morrow were able to get the game tied back up by the 6:30 mark of the second period only to see Ryan Clowe and Brad Winchester restore the Sharks' two goal advantage almost immediately after. Dallas went on to lose that night 5-2.

Which dovetails into another point I want to make.

The Stars haven't just lost these games. They've lost all eight games by three goals.

I suppose you could make the argument that this shows how soft the underbelly of the Stars blue line corps is. But truth be told, any blue line unit in the NHL gets stretched thin when a team is forced to come from behind by multiple goals.

To me, the lack of offensive depth on this team hurts them the most in situations like this. Because like we saw on Friday night, they generated a boat load of chances in the second period against Chicago.

Pot one home in the 2nd and perhaps you start the third without feeling the need to mindlessly turn the puck over in the middle of the ice in your own zone.

Anyway, I don't mean to belabor the point. On to some more positive stats after the jump.

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Or maybe the Ducks' hamster is dead.

Whatever.

Razor's classic Razorism from way back when was the first thing to pop into my head on this glorious day where we return to daylight savings time for some strange reason. Maybe Arizona and that sliver of Indiana have it right, but I digress.

Also, for those of you joining the Stars bandwagon from the Mavs bandwagon, the line forms to the right.

Another week of games gone by went without a Stars loss. Last week, we were talking about their chances of just making the playoffs. We were excited by the run, but with games coming up against Vancouver and San Jose, there was the expectation that this thing might come back to Earth a bit and the Stars would be left fighting for their playoff lives amongst a gaggle of teams.

Instead, they put together arguably their best game of the three game Western Canada road swing against what was at the time the Best in the West (that honor, or honour, now belongs to the equally hot St. Louis Blues) and then rallied against a Sharks team that had pwn3d them the last five times those teams met.

And then for good measure, the Stars pushed the Ducks to the edge of the playoff cliff Saturday night. All that and more after the jump.

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In the strange world of the NHL, it's worth pointing out that this year's version of the Stars is overall actually performing worse than last year's version did through this point in the season.

Back on March 4, 2011, Dallas was licking it's wounds after blowing a third period lead in Anaheim en route to a 4-3 OT loss thanks to Teemu Selanne and noted perennial Stars killer, Lubomir Vishnovsky.

Still, that left Dallas with 75 points through 64 games. That's the same point total the Stars are at, but with two additional games played.

Yet, the Stars are in better playoff position than they were last year, when that OT loss left them in a three way tie for 8th with Anaheim and Nashville.

I'll delve into why the situations are so different after the jump.

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A few weeks ago, I took a look at some of Alex Goligoski's metrics in any effort to project how much his absence on the blue line would affect the Stars.

But while projections can be a an informative time killer and generator of talking points, they're not substitute for cold hard facts. And the facts are the Stars have really suffered on offense since Goligoski went out of the lineup on Veteran's Day with a broken thumb.

How much so?

Well before he got injured, the Stars had gone on a three game run of scoring at least five goals (7 against Colorado and 5 each against Carolina and Washington). Since then, they've only managed to hit the four goal plateau just once (November 21st against Edmonton) and went a calendar week from November 12th through November 19th without scoring a goal.

But it's the power play where they've really suffered.

More after the jump

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Not to bring the room down after an exhilarating come from behind win over the Kings. But the issue of officiating and how the Dallas Stars have dealt with being on the short end of a lot of calls reared it's head once again on Wednesday night.

Glen Gulutzan's addressed the issue a few times in the last few weeks. And for good reason as the Stars are among the most penalized teams in the NHL while also getting awarded power play chances far less often than most of the teams in the NHL. 

To that end, Gulutzan has promised to change the culture to one where the Stars turn the other cheek when it comes to complaining about calls that don't go their way. As tonight's game showed, however, that change will be a hard process to complete. And it certainly won't happen overnight.

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Safe to say now that the Stars are mired in a three game losing streak, this rough patch started when Alex Goligoski took a puck off his right hand in his first game back in Pittsburgh since the trade last January that sent him to Dallas.

In the eight full periods of play that he's missed since leaving his homecoming game in Pittsburgh in the first period, the Stars have not looked anywhere like the scoring machine that they were against Colorado, Carolina, and Washington. They managed to get to two goals against Detroit before getting shut out in last night's putrid performance against Florida where it just seemed like they never got their legs going.

To be sure, last night's loss against Florida was the kind of loss you usually see from every team in the league at least once per season. As such, I'm not going to try and tell you that a Goligoski or even a Steve Ott would have made much of a difference against the Panthers last night. Not when the entire team, it seemed like, was skating like they were in quicksand.

But there's no doubt that since Goligoski went out, the Stars have not been the same.

So what do the deeper numbers tell us?

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No doubt about it, the Dallas Stars under new coach Glen Gulutzan are in the conversation for the most pleasant of surprises in the NHL, right up there with Edmonton.

With an 8-3 start under their belts, the Stars will start the month of November in sole possession of first place in the Pacific Division and a share of the top spot with Edmonton and Chicago. That start represents a +4 improvement in points over last October when the Stars finished the first month of the season with a decent 6-4 mark, but went 2-4 in their final six games of the month after starting 4-0.

From a goal differential standpoint, it's a wash as the Stars were a +5 after last October and they're a +5 this past October. However last season, they scored 32 goals and gave up 27 in 10 games last year. This year, it's 28 goals for and 23 against.

Last season, the Stars couldn't sustain that torrid pace on offense and it eventually caught up with them. This year, the Stars have embraced Gully's system that preaches more two-way play. Something that should be more sustainable as the season moves along.

After the jump, I'll break down some more metrics and miscellaneous stats comparing this past October with October 2010.

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This last week not only produced a perfect 3-0 homestand for the Stars, it also produced plenty of obscure stats upon which this series is predicated.

So in honor of Loui Eriksson's game tying goal against Phoenix last Monday that led to the shootout win, I'll lead off with the following stat, just so you can see how rare an occurrence Loui's feat has been recently.

2 - Number of times the Stars tied or won a game with a goal in the last minute of regulation last season. Both of which occurred in the month of March.

The first time it occurred, Jamie Benn was driving a stake through the hearts of last year's Coyotes with a power play goal with 4.8 ticks on the clock on the first day of the month.

The second time it occurred was on March 13th when it appeared the Stars would salvage a least a point in their last home game of the year against the Kings thanks to a Jamie Langebrunner goal with 40.8 seconds left.

But lo and behold, Michael Handzus had other ideas as his redirection past Kari Lehtonen with 20.8 seconds left gave LA the lead back. And one they wouldn't relinquish.

More hockey fun facts after the jump

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And this may or may not become a regular feature with my Hockeymetrics-themed posts just because these are numbers that are fun to talk about.

I would have called it Hockey Numbers to Chew On For Fun, Even Yucks. But HNTCOFFEY doesn't have the same ring to it as, say, TROT COFFEY.

So we'll stick with By The Numbers for right now.

1:29 - That's how long the Dallas Stars penalty killing unit was able to hold out before surrendering a Jason Arnott second period power play goal in the first game of the 2010-11 campaign.

10:00 - How long the Stars penalty killing unit was able to hold out this year before surrendering a power play goal to noted Stars killer, Andrew Brunette, in the second period of last night's game. Dallas was able to kill off all 7:40 worth of the penalties they took in the opener on Friday.

More numbers to chew on after the jump.

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Over the next month, Defending Big D will be counting down the most important "impact" players for the upcoming season for the Dallas Stars. Starting from the player we believe will have the smallest influence on this season to the player with the most, we'll countdown from #23 all the way to the top as we get ready for what we hope will be a very promising season.

When he broke into the league in 2006-07, Loui Eriksson figured to be a nice bit player. Somebody who could chip in the occasional goal while being counted upon to just deliver solid play as a depth guy.

Fast forward to 2011, where Eriksson has an All Star appearance under his belt and figures to be one of the most important players for the Stars as we enter the post-Brad Richards era here in Dallas.

No, Loui's not in any position to become bigger than the game. Nor is anybody else outside of New York capable of doing that apparently, according to some myopic east coast media outlets.

But if the Stars can make it back to the playoffs this season, Loui will be a big reason why.

How big? We'll find out after the jump.

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Over the next month, Defending Big D will be counting down the most important "impact" players for the upcoming season for the Dallas Stars. Starting from the player we believe will have the smallest influence on this season to the player with the most, we'll countdown from #23 all the way to the top as we get ready for what we hope will be a very promising season.

For the second time in three seasons, Brenden Morrow will be tasked not only with trying to adjust to a new system as a player, he'll also be tasked with the unofficial title of liaison between new coach Greg Gulutzan and the rest of the Stars team. Such is the life of an NHL captain.

And if there's one thing Morrow's always been able to be during his career, it's that he's a very good foot soldier with nary a disparaging word publicly about anyone, be it a teammate or coach. Hell, not even Sean Avery's off ice antics in his short tenure with the Stars could pull Morrow offside.

That kind of character trait combined with Morrow's gritty game should make for a relatively easy transition on the player side. But Morrow's task as team captain entering this season will be a bit different from what he's face in previous seasons mentoring some of the younger players coming up.

More after the jump.

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To be fair, 97 points in just about any season except last season would have guaranteed that a team in the West (and it's fans) would get to enjoy post-season hockey. As it was, the West was just too tough for the Dallas Stars to crack the top eight.

This season doesn't look to be too terribly different with the Canucks and Sharks appearing to have the two best teams on paper, the Red Wings being the Red Wings, the Predators taking a big step forward as a franchise last year, the Kings retooling their roster, and the Blackhawks looking to bounce back this season with a solid number one netminder entrenched.

Still, there are a couple of teams that could be ripe for the picking (off).

I'll look at those two teams after the jump

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One metric I haven't really looked at since starting this series on Defending Big D is looking at who scores the goals when the Stars win. Not really sure why that is because it is a metric with some meaning.

Mind you, I'd rather measure something like the metric co-developed by a friend of mine, Marc Foster, than this one. I don't think it digs deep enough.

But it's still worth a look see since we've got to penalty kill for the next three weeks. And because the answer to the question in the title, depending on whether you consider scoring more goals in wins or scoring a greater percentage of overall goals in wins, may not be so obvious.

And for the purposes of this exercise, I didn't discriminate between results earned in regulation and those earned in OT or the shootout.

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Prospective Dallas Stars owner Tom Gaglardi spoke with Jim Harrison on the Jim Harrison Show on Radio NL 610 AM in Kamloops, British Columbia on Thursday morning to speak on many topics.

Stick tap to Mark Stepneski at Andrew's DSP for the tweet about the interview, which you can listen to in it's entirety.

Since he's also the owner of the Kamloops Blazers of the WHL, Harrison and Gaglardi spoke at length about the prospects of the Blazers for their upcoming season.

But at about the 11:15 mark of the interview, Harrison changed the topic to the Dallas Stars sale.

"That's a work in progress and it's been going for well over a year. It's a team that I have great interest and hopefully [we're] close to concluding the agreement to acquire the team. It would still be subject to a lengthy court process given the history of the Stars and Rangers credit facilities."

Harrison asked Gaglardi to confirm that the deal would include taking on some debt as well as half interest in the American Airlines Center, which Gaglardi confirmed.

Also, Gaglardi informed the Stars intrigued him in part because of a personal connection to the area.

His mom is from Dallas.

"It's a marvelous opportunity in a market that's second to none and a market that used to lead the NHL in revenue."

Finally, Gaglardi gave some insight on what he expects the timeframe for when a sale would be completed.

"Two to four months."

Last week, I analyzed the Stars woes within the Pacific Division and pointed at that as one area of improvement for the upcoming season.

This week, I'll look at the road play.

Now compared to the intra-divisional woes the Stars had last season, the Stars accomplished some impressive feats on the road.

Dallas posted two wins each in Detroit, San Jose, and St. Louis. They also had impressive road wins in their opener in New Jersey, at Nashville in February, and in Chicago in January. And to boot, they set a franchise record for consecutive road games without a loss with eight from December 13th to January 20th.

And yet, they finished the year with a -22 in overall goal differential.

Continue reading this post »

Vancouver businessman Tom Gaglardi and Monarch Investments finished initial negotiations to purchase the Dallas Stars and the paperwork for the sale has been moved to the NHL, according to Mike Heika of the Dallas Morning News.

But for those hoping to see this move as an overcome obstacle, you might want to tap the brakes. Because as Heika notes, it's merely nothing more than a necessary procedural move. Other groups can still bid on the club.

And there's also this little nugget from Heika's story.

With more than 40 lenders who have a legal rights to the Stars, one of the key contentions of the sale will be who gets paid what. While there has been jockeying for position about who gets paid what percentage, there also has been a lot of talk about who gets paid first. The sale price is not expected to cover the debt, so some lenders will not get paid back.

``In a traditional sale, you have a seller who is trying to negotiate with a buyer, and you have traditional sale practices. But this isn’t a traditional sale,’’ said one source. `` You have a group of sellers who have different opinions, and that really means you don’t have a seller, per se. Into that vacuum has stepped a lot of lawyers, and that has made the process very complicated.’’

In other words, let the legal haggling from those creditors who may not be made whole commence.

Still, the move does pave the way to Gaglardi's group given Stalking Horse status for an expected auction on the club. And that could come as early as next month.

And there's also this.

While the lenders have funded the team for the past two seasons, and allowed the Stars to up the payroll to sign seven free agents in the summer, it seems clear that they do not want to hang around to spend more money on the team next season. Players get their first paycheck on Oct. 15, and it’s expected that the new owner will be in place by that time.

Our long, painful nightmare should be over in about two months, folks.

On January 21st, Stars fans took a peek at the Pacific Division standings and saw the Dallas Stars in the lead by six points over the Phoenix Coyotes and by 10 points over the eventual division champ, for the 4th year in a row, the San Jose Sharks.

As we all know, that came crashing down in the month of February. Just a month after leading the division by six points, the Stars found themselves in a three way tie with Southern California's two hockey teams in the cellar.

After the last two seasons, I'm not sure you could blame the most hardcore of Stars fans for being positively jaded on the day after the Stars set a franchise record for most consecutive games unbeaten on the road. Still, there were two statistical areas where we should have considered this fool's gold.

Today, I'll look at how the Stars fared in the Pacific and why they need to be better when the new season kicks off in 75 days. One in which Stars may finally get to say goodbye to the Coyotes, Ducks, Kings, and Sharks as divisional rivals.

Statistical Sagacity after the jump

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It's been awhile since I've done a post on one of the more passionate topics at DBD, Hockeymetrics.

And with the free agent frenzy having died down, we're starting to enter the dog days not only of summer, but of the hockey offseason.

While we all have our eye towards next season with interest on what Glen Gulutzan and the nice haul of free agents signings that Joe Nieuwendyk made two weeks ago can bring to the club, I thought it would be fun to look back at last season at the Stars leaders in each of the six categories that represent what the NHL considers a valid way to score a goal.

Fun times after the jump...

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Brad Richards ended months of speculation this morning by deciding to sign a nine year deal with the New York Rangers that TSN is reporting to be worth $58.5 million. Until it's signed and registered with the NHL registry, the actual numbers in terms of total amont and amount per season won't be known.

But suffice to say, even if the Stars had new ownership in place and it had been Dallas where he re-signed for a similar deal, I think Joe Nieuwendyk would be raked over the coals in some quarters, including mine. And it makes his signings yesterday for depth make that much more sense when you consider the Stars weren't going to be Cup contenders for next spring any way.

As it is, Glen Sather's rolling the dice in the hopes that this deal with Richards doesn't turn into a bust like similar deals for Bobby Holik, Scott Gomez, and Chris Drury did. And with any free agent signing, including the one's Nieuwendyk engineered yesterday on the first day of free agency, time will be the ultimate decider.

If the Rangers go on to win the Cup, then this signing, like the signing of Marian Hossa by Chicago two summers ago, will be worth it.

If they don't, Sather gets pilloried, again.

As the Metroplex sweats out a hot start to June and curses the term "Ridge of High Pressure", one of their beloved sports teams is on the precipice of bringing this city it's first championship since Brett Hull's very legal goal in the wee hours of June 20, 1999 brought the Stars the Cup almost 12 years ago.

And as a resident of this fine city and fan of all the sports teams here, I can't help but harken back to the days where the Mavericks were an afterthought on the DFW sports scene. 11 years without playoffs will do that. Hell, three years without playoffs as the Stars will attest, will do that.

At that time, Mark Cuban made the bold move to buy the team and transform it forever. And during the first 7 to 8 years of his stewardship, all the good that Cuban brought with the club seemed to be canceled out by the spoiled man-child from within.

Then Cuban learned his lesson. You might be right in some of your battles with David Stern and the NBA, but you'll never win those battles.

Now how does this translate to whoever owns the Stars?

Find out after the jump

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Once again it's that time of year here on Defending Big D where we take a look at each player that suited up for 25 or more games this season (and are still with the team) and take a look back at their season. What was good about it, what wasn't so good, and the lasting impression they left us as we go into summer.

Karlis Skrastins

#37 / Defenseman / Dallas Stars

Height: 6-1

Weight: 208

Born: Jul 09, 1974

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	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
2010 - Karlis Skrastins	74	3	5	8	-1	38	0	0	1		30

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Key Stat:  139 - Number of blocked shots by Skrastins this year, a team high.

The Good: For the second consecutive season in Dallas and third overall, Skrastins proved he was a relatively durable player by playing more than 70 games.

Not an insignificant achievement when you consider he never broke the 70 game mark for games played in the regular season in 2007, 2008, or 2009.

The Bad:  Not surprisingly, the Stars weren't an offensive juggernaut when he was out on the ice. His 2.19 GFON/60 rating was only higher than Jeff Woywitka's. But he did score one more goal than last season.

But obviously, offense has never been part of his game, so anything you get from him in that regard has to be considered gravy.

The Bottom Line: When you look at Skrastins individual metrics compared to the other Stars' defenseman, you see him for what he is. A middle of the road defenseman in the mold of a Jon Klemm who can provide depth on just about any blue line corps in the league, and really nothing more.

He's not flashy, but he won't be a liability when he's out there on the blue line.

The Vote: Rate Skrastins below on a scale of A to F (A being the best of course) based on his performance relative to his potential and your expectations for the season.

As we've pointed out here many times on DBD, the Dallas Stars badly need a new owner. As we've pointed out a few times, expecting that new owner to make a splash in free agency to bring in new players might be a little too much to expect given the thin pool of free agents beyond one Brad Richards.

There's just not much out there; the good news is that the free agent class of 2012 looks quite promising.

Rest assured, there are a few attractive names out there this year. And in case the ownership situation gets resolved, some of these names would look good as complimentary players to Brad Richards, Jamie Benn, Brenden Morrow, Mike Riberio, et al.

Today, I'll look at Ville Leino of the Philadelphia Flyers.

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So let's just assume that nine days ago, the Stars would have found a way to capitalize on the misfortune of the Blackhawks and beaten the Wild to get in as the 8th and final seed in the West, OK?

On the surface, it would appear that nothing much would have changed result wise. Vancouver, while only having won the last two games by one goal each, is firmly in control of their series against a team that owned them the last two springs.

Perhaps the only thing that might have changed is the average margin of victory considering Dallas never played Vancouver to anything closer than three goals in any of their four meetings this season.

Or perhaps the Canucks might have taken the Stars lightly. Afterall against Chicago, Vancouver had the motivation of having something to prove against their nemesis over the last two springs. And despite getting drilled in Chicago on Tuesday, I still expect Vancouver to close this series out. Of course, I'd love to be wrong on this prediction.

Ever since the Stars fell short against the Canucks in that epic first round series from 2007, the Stars have gone 1-4-1 at what is now known as Rogers Arena with only a shootout win from January 4th, 2008 to show for their efforts. As much as the Hawks had owned the Canucks the last two years, the Canucks would have gone into a series with Dallas with the feeling that they owned Dallas more.

Perhaps that could have caused Vancouver to become a little overconfident coming into this series. However slim a possibility that might have been.

But though we'll never know, I tend to think the Stars would have been minced meat for Vancouver, especially given how the offense, and more to the point, the power play, had become short circuited.

And when I look at the other series in the Western Conference, it's clear to me that even though the Stars were close to the teams in points from the 4th seed to the 8th, they would have been no match for the upper echelon teams in the West.

Why is that the case?

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With one day left in the NHL season, one thing's for certain.

The 2007 Colorado Avalanche will either have company in the 'best teams to not make the playoffs in the post-NHL lockout era' department, or they'll get kicked out of the club with Chicago or Dallas holding this inauspicious mantle. That year, the Avs posted 95 points and missed the playoffs by a point in large part because 7 of the 8 teams that year broke the century mark in points.

Including the Dallas Stars, who in spite of their 107 points gained that season, were seeded 6th opposite the 3rd seeded Vancouver Canucks. Both teams staged a memorable playoff series in which Marty Turco posted three shutouts with the last two coming in Games 5 and 6 to rally the Stars from down 3-1 in the series to force a Game 7 in Vancouver.

Unfortunately, Turks and the rest of the Stars couldn't complete the comeback and the Stars season ended in the Pacific Northwest.

Obviously, the situation is a little bit different this season. But the Stars are hoping they'll have the opportunity to finish off another improbable rally come 5:00 when they take to the ice at Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul against the Minnesota Wild. Fortunately this contest will occur late enough that Stars fans will have ample opportunity to bathe themselves after engaging in the disgusting very necessary act of rooting for Detroit against Chicago at 11:30.

Otherwise, Dallas sports fans will take another kick to the crotch from the sports gods. But from an overall sports perspective, they'll hardly be alone in the 'best teams to not make the playoffs in sports' discussion.

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And it all looked so promising when an early goal from T.J. Oshie put the Blues up 1-0 just 17 seconds in at the United Center. Oshie followed that up with another early period goal in the second to give St. Louis a 2-0 lead.

Then the Chicago Blackhawks got the benefit of a very controversial Marian Hossa goal and they were off and running. Sure, Chris Stewart made things a little interesting by tying the game midway through the third period and sending it to overtime.

But Jonthan Towes, who was in the penalty box the night before in Montreal when the Hawks were victimized by a very iffy tripping call in the OT that led to the power play on which P.K. Subban cashed in, snuck behind the Blues defense, took a pass at their blue line, skated in, and found a lot of net to shoot at on Ty Conklin's short side.

And he didn't miss, giving the Blackhawks a much needed 4-3 OT win and a four point lead over Dallas with a home and home against Detroit remaining. Oh yeah, that goal also eliminated Calgary from the playoff race.

The rest of the night didn't go according to plan either down in Southern California. San Jose gave Antti Niemi the night off and the rest of the team decided they could take the night off as well as the Anaheim Ducks blitzed the Sharks, 6-2.

Then the Phoenix Coyotes couldn't hold onto a 2-1 second period lead, went to OT, and then the shootout where the Los Angeles Kings prevailed.

So as it stands now, the Canucks, Red Wings, Sharks, and Kings have clinched playoff spots. Calgary, as I mentioned, is officially out, leaving the Stars as the only team on the outside looking in with a chance.

Five teams fighting for four spots.

And there's more beyond the jump.

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Amazing what one win will do as a fan for your favorite team's playoff chances.

All of a sudden, the "hard" part of the Stars remaining schedule is behind them. Ahead of the Stars are the Blue Jackets, the Avalanche in a home and home, and a Sunday finale up in Minnesota. All teams that have since been eliminated from the playoff race.

That doesn't necessarily mean these three teams won't make things hard on the Stars. Especially Colorado, which hasn't lost at home to the Stars since the second to last game of the year back in the 2008-09 season, when it took a circus Mike Ribeiro shootout goal to defeat them at the Pepsi Center.

But if (and understand it's still a HUGE if) the Stars can complete this come-back-from-the-dead rally and finish with 97 points, the Blackhawks will be forced to win 3 out of their final 4 games and the Ducks will be forced to win 2 of their final 3 games.

And as you'll see after the jump, both teams still have some pretty significant hurdles to overcome in the final week of the season.

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Any hope Stars fans might have had that Adam Burish would make his return to the lineup tomorrow night was extinguished by one simple sentence as reported by Mike Heika of the Dallas Morning News on his blog this afternoon.

``He's not a possibility for this one,'' Crawford said.

In fact, Burish didn't even skate today.

But Karlis Skrastins could be a possibility tomorrow. So there's that.

To be sure, the epitaph on the Stars season has yet to be chiseled. They're still two points back of Chicago and they hold the tiebreaker over a Blackhawks team that's going to have to go much of the rest of the season without one of their top playmakers in Patrick Sharp.

And they're still three points back of the Ducks with a game in hand and a head to head meeting remaining in a week. But I wouldn't blame anybody if they watched the seconds wind down in Nashville Saturday night and thought that was their best shot.

Afterall, the power play hasn't scored multiple goals in a game since January 17th, their top defenseman is going to be on the shelf for most of what remains in this regular season, and as Brandon Worley pointed out in the game recap thread last night, Kari Lehtonen is showing all the signs of a worn out goaltender.

And oh yeah, there's the impending free agency of Brad Richards and the flux of the ownership situation. Yes, compared to what this team was accomplishing even two and a half months ago, the fact the Stars currently sit 9th is a downer.

But allow to interject that in some ways, this season has been a success. Follow me after the jump.

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Since we've all been punched in the gut enough this week, I won't further depress you with how the playoff race could have looked for the Dallas Stars if that puck hadn't have found it's way to Teemu Selanne's stick with five seconds left in regulation.

No, I'm here to lift you up and tell you that despite all that went wrong for the Stars this week both in the game they played as well as the ones played by all the playoff contenders around them, win and they're in.

That's right, they won't need help from anyone...

Yet.

Losing to Nashville on Saturday night would change all of that, of course, but I repeat myself about not depressing you.

On to the updated point projection stats...

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