Adam, I hope you don't mind that I post this here. Just thought a few folks might be interested in talking baseball on a slow day.

The Fanball Sports Network blogs are having a live chat on the AL West right now. The panel includes the blogger covering each team in the AL West. Garrett Wilson from Los Angeles, Josh Russell from Oakland, Nate Mayer from Seattle and myself covering the Rangers.

If anyone is interested join us at http://bit.ly/a1DctR

Tigers nearing trade with Rangers for pitcher Armando Galarraga
February 4, 2008

By JON PAUL MOROSI

FREE PRESS SPORTS WRITER

The Tigers are close to acquiring right-hander Armando Galarraga from the Texas Rangers in exchange for outfielder Michael Hernandez, in a move that would provide Detroit with additional pitching depth.

http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080204/SPORTS02/80204064

not sure who Hernandez is... looking into it

Deric McKamey's top 15 was published in Baseball HQ this morning and is as follows:

1. Eric Hurley RHP 9C
   
2. Elvis Andrus SS 9C
   
3. Taylor Teagarden C 8B
   
4. Kasey Kiker LHP 9C
   
5. Blake Beaven RHP 9D
   
6. Michael Main RHP 9D
   
7. Matt Harrison LHP 8C
   
8. Chris Davis 3B 8C
   
9. Johnny Whittleman 3B 8C
   
10. German Duran 2B 7B
    
11. Neftali Feliz RHP 9E
    
12. Julio Borbon OF 8C
    
13. John Mayberry, Jr. OF 8D
    
14. Omar Poveda RHP 8D
    
15. Fabio Castillo RHP 9E

The number letter combination at the end is one of the things I like best about the rankings that McKamey does. The number represents his view of the player's ceiling and the letter represents his view of the present likelihood of that ceiling being reached.

PLAYER POTENTIAL RATING
Scale of (1-10) representing a player's upside potential
10 - Hall of Fame-type player
9 - Elite player
8 - Solid regular
7 - Average regular
6 - Platoon player
5 - Major League reserve player
4 - Top minor league player
3 - Average minor league player
2 - Minor league reserve player
1 - Minor league roster filler

PROBABILITY RATING
Scale of (A-E) representing the player's realistic chances of achieving their potential
A - 90% probability of reaching potential
B - 70% probability of reaching potential
C - 50% probability of reaching potential
D - 30% probability of reaching potential
E - 10% probability of reaching potential

McKamey gives very few 10s (I think just 2 or 3 this year and only Jay Bruce got as high as a C to go along with it meaning a 50-50 shot to be a 10 player). A 9C or 8B or better is pretty much a top 100 prospect in his rankings. There will probably be some 9Ds and 8Cs in the top 100 as well.

He also gives each system a grade for top end talent and overall talent. The Rangers rank in the top 5 minor league systems based on his current grades along with the Rays, Dodgers, Reds and A's.

From Baseball Prospectus writer John Perotto in his Sunday column (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6963)

Texas: The Rangers are still looking for a center fielder after being rejected by Torii Hunter, and have their sights set on Crisp. If that fails, they could go after the Mets' Carlos Gomez. A more realistic target, though, is Gathright in a trade for shortstop prospect Joaquin Arias.

Gathright does not excite me very much and I still like Arias more than most. However, if the organization is dead set on Duran over Arias, might as well get what you can for Arias I guess.

Q from Norm: "Do you want Vicente Padilla back next year?"

A from Ron: "I don't think I have a choice in the matter, like you said he still has 2 years and $22 million left on his contract."

Now Ron is not known for giving the "right" answer (which is this case would have been "yes, we can't wait to have him back next year and turn it around to have a year like he did in 2006"), but by not giving the "right" answer here it sounds like he doesn't want him back. Even if you are not excited to have him back there are things you can say besides "I don't have a choice".

Today at Baseball Prospectus, Kevin Goldstein ranks the top CF prospects. Not surprisingly, there are no Rangers in teh top 15, but there are a couple of notes. One bad:

That Julio Borbon (Rangers, 35th overall) received a big league deal is another testament to just how good an agent Scott Boras is, and how much some scouts overrate speed at times. No matter how fast Borbon is, he's completely bereft of any secondary skills, drawing just six walks in 40 games this year (and that's college ball), while slugging only three home runs.

and one good (sort of):

Honorable Mention
Brandon Boggs, Rangers: A little bit older than most (turns 25 in January), the former Georgia Tech star has power, defensive chops, and a propensity for strikeouts..

nice to see Boggs get a mention, especially a positive mention about defense... I am guessing Goldstein's comment about Borbon being "bereft" of other skills (besides speed) was something he has heard from a scout (not just based on the numbers), but that is just a guess on my part. Even with that, you have to wonder which scout said it, but in any case it is not a positive comment at all. In fact it was in the paragraph that began with this comment about another Ranger:

Unlike 2005, this year's draft was anything but a good one for athletic up-the-middle players, including center fielders. The top high school hopeful was arguably Michael Main, who is instead pitching (and doing quite well, thank you) for the Rangers.

Not sure if the Rangers need a pitcher or a CF more at this point, hopefully Main's potential will be maximized as a pitcher.

Kevin Goldstein has posted his rankings of shortstop prospects over at Baseball Prospectus. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6574
Has this to say on Rangers prospects:

9. Elvis Andrus, Rangers
Age: 19.0
Hitting: .244/.330/.335 at High-A (99 G, Carolina League); .240/.321/.280 at High-A (6 G, California League)
Scouts still love the tools, but the high praise for Andrus as a player is down from where it was two years ago, when he was the talk of the Gulf Coast League. Yes, he's exceedingly young, but at the same time, he's never put up good numbers. His approach is advanced for his age, and he's a very good runner, but he's shown almost zero ability to drive the ball, and scouts no longer speak of any kind of power projection. Defensively, he has excellent range and a rocket arm, but is still prone to the usual inconsistency one finds in teenage infielders, being charged with 28 errors on the season. Andrus has always been the subject of much hype--some of it justified, some... not so much.
..................................................
Keep An Eye On
Marcus Lemon, Rangers: Yes, this is Chet Lemon's son, who signed for $1 million as a fourth-round pick last year. He has tools and athleticism and makeup, and after a slow start at Low-A Clinton, Lemon is still hitting just .260/.347/.339, but you can up that to .293/.370/.378 in his last 60 games.

not exactly rave reviews for Andrus, but he is in the top 10.... nice to see Lemon mentioned.

Kevin Goldstein has a great article up at Baseball prospectus about whether or not this year's draft picks will get signed and the whole recommended slot process.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6545

Question: So where are we at right now in terms of the 2007 draft?

With 10 days to go before the newly-implemented signing deadline of August 15, 13 of the 30 first-round picks, including eight of the first 12 picks are still without a deal. In addition, there are 26 players between the supplemental first round and the fifth round who are also officially unsigned.

Question: Wait a second--what do you mean by "official?"

There appear to be plenty of deals where all the terms have been agreed upon, but they're just not signed and announced yet. All of these deals include bonuses that are far greater than the slot recommended by MLB. For example, Detroit has signed fifth-round pick Casey Crosby for what is believed to be $750,000; rumors abound that Atlanta has agreed to terms with first-rounder Jason Heyward for approximately $1.7 million, and the Yankees have agreed on several above-slot deals, including around $1 million for fourth-round pick Brad Suttle, and somewhere between $750-900,000 for tenth-round pick Carmen Angelini.

Question: So why aren't these deals announced yet?

On the surface, because MLB doesn't want the over-slot deals being used in negotiations to raise the bonus demands of the legitimately unsigned picks. That said, it's an exercise in futility. "Once a deal is done, everyone knows it's out there," said one scouting director; teams talk to each other, and agents quickly let their good deals be known. As another scouting director put it, "I really don't know who they think they are fooling."

Given those comments, I feel pretty certain that Beavan and probably Borbon as well will get done (perhaps even already done). In fact, if a deal is already done, but waiting until the last minute to be announced it explains the lack of public handwringing by the Rangers and quiet from the Beavan camp.

Does anyone know how to build a firefox plugin? I would greatly appreciate a firefox plugin for LSB that does a few things:

1. Blocks/hides all posts from Sharky
   
2. Changes all nicknames for Saltalamacchia to "Saltalamacchia" (e.g. Salty, Salts McGee, J-Salt, Johnny Douchebag, etc.). I don't want to read any of them again.
   
3. Links all references to obscure stats (e.g. EQA) to the appropriate page of explanation.

Feel free to add your list of features and don't forget to vote in the poll.

Poll

Who is satan?

36%

Scott Boras

12 votes

6%

Mark Teixeira

2 votes

15%

Sharky

5 votes

18%

Ben Morris (Update the frickin standings!)

6 votes

0%

Sammy Sosa

0 votes

3%

Adam Morris

1 votes

0%

Barry Bonds

0 votes

21%

Tom Hicks

7 votes

0%

Alex Rodriguez

0 votes

33 votes | Poll has closed

the following was taken from the John Dewan Stat of the Week e-mail for this week (also found at http://www.actasports.com/sows.php)... Not surprisingly, no Ranger regulars on the list, but Kam Loe gets on the list among pitchers.

Who are the 2007 defensive All-Stars (thus far)?

July 18, 2007

In The Fielding Bible I introduced a new way to quantify defensive contributions called the Plus/Minus System. The book covered every 2005 defensive player other than pitchers and catchers using Plus/Minus and a variety of other defensive metrics.

The Bill James Handbook 2007 published the Plus/Minus leaderboards for the 2006 season (adding pitchers for the first time) and the 2008 version will publish the Plus/Minus leaderboards for the 2007 season. But how about a preview now?

The recent All-Star Game tried to bring together 2007's best players. Let's take a look at the best players from a defensive standpoint thus far this year. Here are the 2007 Plus/Minus defensive leaderboards (through games of Monday, July 16).

First Basemen

Name     Team     PM
Albert Pujols     StL     +25
Casey Kotchman     LAA     +13
Ryan Klesko     SF     +10
Kevin Youkilis     Bos     +8
Ryan Shealy     KC     +8

Second Basemen

Name     Team     PM
Chase Utley     Phi     +16
Aaron Hill     Tor     +13
Mark Ellis     Oak     +12
Howie Kendrick     LAA     +10
Brandon Phillips     Cin     +8
Kaz Matsui     Col     +8

Third Basemen

Name     Team     PM
Pedro Feliz     SF     +21
David Wright     NYM     +15
Scott Rolen     StL     +13
Aramis Ramirez     ChC     +13
Adrian Beltre     Sea     +12

Shortstops

Name     Team     PM
Troy Tulowitzki     Col     +22
Adam Everett     Hou     +17
Jack Wilson     Pit     +12
Omar Vizquel     SF     +12
Jason Bartlett     Min     +12

Left Fielders

Name     Team     PM
Shannon Stewart     Oak     +11
Matt Holliday     Col     +10
Geoff Jenkins     Mil     +9
Adam Lind     Tor     +8
Emil Brown     KC     +8

Center Fielders

Name     Team     PM
Andruw Jones     AtL     +22
Carlos Beltran     NYM     +16
Curtis Granderson     Det     +14
Coco Crisp     Bos     +13
Alfredo Amezaga     Fla     +8
Ryan Church     Was     +8

Right Fielders

Name     Team     PM
Andre Ethier     LAD     +16
Carlos Quentin     Ari     +10
Austin Kearns     Was     +9
Alex Rios     Tor     +8
Magglio Ordonez     Det     +7
Corey Hart     Mil     +7

Pitchers

Name     Team     PM
Greg Maddux     SD     +5
Jon Garland     ChW     +5
Kameron Loe     Tex     +5
Five Tied With         +4

The worst defensive player thus far this year: Florida Marlins shortstop Hanley Ramirez at -23. Derek Jeter is a close second at -21.

By the way, I've been asked the same question many times: When will the next edition of The Fielding Bible come out? Answer: Not this year, but likely next year. The reason: We're working on a new book that will take time away from doing a Fielding Bible this year. The new book is called The Bill James Gold Mine. Keep an eye out for it next spring.

Short description of the Plus/Minus System:

The Fielding Bible contains a detailed explanation of the Plus/Minus System, but here is a summary.

The plus/minus figure of +25 for Albert Pujols means that he made 25 more plays than could be expected from an average first baseman. This +25 is determined by looking at each play hit in his direction and comparing what Pujols does with that play compared to all other first basemen.

Every time a fielder catches a ball and gets the out, he receives a fraction between 1 and 0. If it was a difficult play, he gets a larger fraction. An easy play, a smaller fraction. That fraction is determined by what percentage of times that same play is made by all players at that position, in the same location of the field, and on a ball hit just as hard. The higher the percentage (easier play), the lower the fractional award for the defensive play. The lower the percentage (harder play), the higher the factional award.

Every time a fielder fails to make the play, he gets a negative version of that same fraction.

We add up all these fractions and round the number to an integer to create their Plus/Minus at that position (some guys play multiple positions in one season). A final Plus/Minus number around zero indicates an average performance.

Ok, I don't really think they are idiots, but I knew that would get attention. While I don't think they are idiots they are wrong on both points they tried to make today. (For those not familiar Bob and Dan are the afternoon 12-3 hosts on Sportsradio 1310 The Ticket)

First, Dan said Grieve was being ridiculous Ranger announcer when he said something along the lines of Guthrie, Bedard and Cabrera were a very tough to hit threesome and that he couldn't think of a team with a tougher three to hit. Ummm, Dan, take a look at the numbers. There are only 7 teams with 3 pitchers ranked in the top 50 in MLB in batting average against. Below are those teams with the three pitchers and their rank. Only the Cubs have 3 pitchers with a current better average ranking... Again, this is not ERA, it is batting average against which is what Grieve was referring to (when he said hardest to HIT). Admittedly, Oakland is right there close also, but I do not think Tom Grieve's statement was a stretch.
CHC    Rich Hill    11
    Jason Marquis    13
    Ted Lilly    14
BAL    Jeremy Guthrie    4
    Erik Bedard    9
    Daniel Cabrera    35
OAK    Dan Haren    2
    Joe Blanton    21
    Chad Gaudin    31
NYM    Oliver Pérez    3
    John Maine    7
    Tom Glavine    50
CWS    Javier Vázquez    12
    Mark Buehrle    30
    Jon Garland    39
BOS    Josh Beckett    23
    Dicek Matsuzaka    24
    Tim Wakefield    36
SF    Matt Cain    17
    Noah Lowry    29
    Barry Zito    38

Next, Bob tried to make the point that perhaps the Rangers have been buying into Ron Washington's patience at the plate theory since Mark Teixeira has been out. Since Tex had the fight with Wash about being patient early in the season, his theory was that players were getting in line behind Tex, but with Tex out of the lineup they are now getting in line behind Wash. Now there are lots of ways to measure this, but the simplest is number of pitches per plate appearance. Oakland, Boston and the Yankees are continuously at the top in this category which reflects what we believe to be their batters ability to work pitchers. Teixeira has been out 30 days, so it works out to use stats from the last 30 days (courtesy MLB.com). In that stretch, the Rangers are averaging 3.83 P/PA. Prior to that, with Tex in the lineup, the Rangers were averaging 3.87 P/PA. They ranked 5th in the AL on both counts. Bottom line is that there is no evidence in the NP/PA numbers to suggest that the Ranger have been any more patient with Tex out of the lineup than with Tex in the lineup (if anything, they have seen fewer pitches in his absence). YTD Boston, Cleveland, Oakland and NYY are the top four teams with Texas ranking 5th in NP/PA.

Last summer, I had convinced myself that Padilla should not be brought back, despite the fact that he was having a good season. I had heard some things about him from his time in Philadelphia that bothered me (that he wasn't really interested in working hard at his rehab during those two injury plagued seasons), then there were the rumblings that his beanings were viewed by some in the Texas clubhouse as stupid and he was not well-liked by Ranger teammates. I was ready to bid him good riddance.

Unfortunately, there were not many free agent options and between that fact and people here saying that he should be re-signed and even some positive notes on him at BaseballProspectus (iirc) I talked myself out of it. I did a 180 and decided to support bringing him back (partly because I wanted to believe Daniels was doing the right thing). I even gave him a good if not great projection on the community projection thread (14/190/4.22).

I should have trusted my instincts. This guy is rotten to the core. He pulled out his very best work for his free agent year and now is satisfied to collect his checks. Ron Washington was on with Norm this morning and said that from his observation it appeared that Padilla is playing without "fire in his belly", but he [Washington] hoped he was wrong and that wasn't the case.

I used to think that when things went wrong on defense it rattled Padilla mentally, leading to poor performance. Now I think that when the defense makes a mistake, he wants a run or two to score so that he has someone else to blame. Washington went on to say that he knew that the Rangers weren't giving him run support early in the season, but lately they are scoring, but Padilla is not supporting them with a good performance. Sounds like to me Padilla is blaming the batters instead taking ownership of his results.

The worst part is, I'd be surprised if anyone would take Padilla's contract without Texas paying for most of it. As bad as Park sucked, I think it bothered him that he sucked. I just don't think Padilla cares one way or the other right now. I welcome anyone to prove that thought wrong.

This morning Norm Hitzges said that the Rangers have been as bad this year as at any point during Buck's tenure.
Challenge issued and accepted. I'll never pass up an opportunity to show that Buck was bad.
Only one problem... Norm was not far off (at least as measured by wins). During Buck's 4 years in Texas, there were not very many 38 game stretches that were this bad.

2006
The season that got Buck fired did not feature a 38 game stretch this bad. The team's worst stretch last season was 16-22, which you can point to a number of times over 38 game stretches beginning in mid-June and ending in early August. They also finished the season 16-22 over the final 38 games.

2005
After going 30-20 over the first 50 games, the team collapsed. The worst stretch was from July 14 to August 21 where the team went 11-25. That's nearly as bad as it got under Buck. During that time (grabbing a game or two before/after), the worst 38 game stretch was 12-26.

2004
Ah yes, the fabled 2004 season where we celebrated the Rangers 3rd place finish by extending Buck's contract. This was the best season under Buck and as you might expect had the least disgusting bad 38 game stretch. From July 1 to August 12 the team went 17-21 (that stretch began with a John Wasdin loss and ended with a Scott Erickson loss and mixed in more spare pitching parts than I care to mention here).

2003
Buck's first season was really bad. It featured a proud-to-be-a-Ranger-fan stretch of 2-19 (May 30 to June 23) book-ended by 8 and 9 game losing streaks. That stretch spawned a number of 38 game stretches worse than the current one; the worst of which was 11-27 (pick a date). The team also finished the season 14-24.

Throw out 2003 and Norm is pretty much dead-on. This team is as bad as nearly any point since then. Only the 2005 collapse had a worse stretch.

On a more positive note, the 1998 team (which made the playoffs) had one 38 game stretch of 15-23 (May 24-July 3). Of course, that streak began after the team had run the record up to 31-16 with a six game win streak. They basically had the division won after that strong opening (needing just a .478 record the rest of the way to win). I guess if this team could put together a .660 winning percentage over the next 40-45 games they'd be back in position to win the division just like that '98 team.

Okay, maybe that wasn't a more positive note after all...

Ian Kinsler's batting average has certainly slipped but he is still our favorite Ranger right?

Kinsler's first 53 AB: .340/.419/.792
Kinsler's last 57 AB: .175/.254/.316
Kinsler total: 110 AB .255/.339/.545

I am guessing that the number of folks calling for Ron Washington to be fired because he wasn't batting Ian Kinsler fifth has dwindled substantially.

Before everyone piles on me here, I am not trying to say he is a .175/.254/.316 hitter... I am just saying he is nowhere near a .340/.419/.792 hitter. I do think he is about the .255/.339/.545 hitter we see y-t-d, with a little better OBP and AVG and less SLG.

let the knee jerking begin (or for most of you, let the knee jerking continue)

B. McCarthy     10.20 ERA
J. Danks      5.06 ERA

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Last year the Rangers were horrible in one run games (17-26). In fact one could argue that their record in 1-run games combined with their home record (39-42) were the main reasons they did not match their pythagorean W-L. By the way Oakland, the division winner, excelled in both categories. The A's were 49-32 at home and 32-22 in one run games.

Enter Ron Washington

So, from day one I have been interested too see if Washington brought the home/1-run voodoo with him. So far the home record is good (especially the series victory over Boston). After last night's game, however, the Rangers are 0-2 in 1-run games.

Yes it's early, anything at this point is simply knee-jerk reaction... just something to monitor for those at home.

While the A's have started slow again this season, it is worth noting that they are already 3-1 in 1-run games.... hmmmmm...

Shouldn't I be able to watch baseball in some form or fashion right now (1 PM CDT)? I have MLB.tv but all the games are blacked out right now. I have gone through all the channels on my TV and found no national game on right now. Why am I blacked out?

Is it because FOX has the rights all afternoon and because they have chosen not to show a noon game then I cannot watch any game?

I could use some baseball... and can't have it.

In 2006, the Rangers had 12 different starting pitchers (Millwood, Padilla, Koronka, Loe, Tejeda, Eaton, Rheinecker, Bauer, Volquez, Wasdin, Wells and Dickey).

In 2005, the Rangers had 14 different starting pitchers (Young, Rogers, Park, Astacio, Drese, Rodriguez, Loe, BenoitWasdin, Dominguez, Wilson, Dickey, Volquez and Rupe).

So, the question is, in 2007 how many starting pitchers will the Rangers use and who will they be?

I will go with 10 (Millwood, Padilla, McCarthy, Tejeda, Wright, Loe, Rupe, Benoit, Koronka and Hurley) and say there will be two others (maybe Zeke if he slips through waivers and someone new acquired by trade) for 12 total.

The poll question simply asks you how many different starters there will be.

Poll

How many different starting pitchers will the Rangers use in 2007?

32%

11 or 12

13 votes

37%

9 or 10

15 votes

12%

7 or 8

5 votes

7%

More than 14

3 votes

0%

6 or fewer

0 votes

10%

13 or 14

4 votes

40 votes | Poll has closed

Author of the Minor League Baseball Analyst and BaseballHQ writer Deric McKamey gave the AL West clubs the following grades on their minor league systems:

TEXAS
Organizational Grades: Hitting (D+).....Pitching (A-).....Top End Talent (B-).....Overall (B-)

SEATTLE
Organizational Grades: Hitting (B-).....Pitching (B+).....Top End Talent (C).....Overall (C+)

OAKLAND
Organizational Grades: Hitting (B).....Pitching (C).....Top End Talent (C).....Overall (C+)

LOS ANGELES
Organizational Grades: Hitting (A-).....Pitching (B-).....Top End Talent (B+).....Overall (B+)

The Rangers pick #19 overall, then have picks #69 and #101 if my math is right (correct me if I am wrong).

The questions is, what are the priorities? Pitching is and should always be a priority with this team so college or high school?

What positions are a priority? The top of the system has several middle infielders, but what about the low minors?