SB Nation User Blog: Brandon

Thank You Tommie Harris

Brandon — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 05:07:17 -0000

In the Packers' 21-14 victory over the Bears, Harris hit Rodgers low, and as Rodgers fell backward, his foot got caught in the turf and his knee bent awkwardly. On replay, it looks as though Rodgers should have suffered a serious injury...

It turns out Harris did pull up as he hit Rodgers. He told the Chicago Tribune on Thursday that he wasn't into injuring players, especially one he has gotten to know through receiver Greg Jennings' charity events.

"I went for his legs and I let go of them," Harris said. "I could have squeezed them if I wanted to. I wouldn't do that."

It hasn't been the best season for Harris, he's been battling injury and been fined more than once this season, but he was good to the Packers on that play.

Preview: Green Bay Packers at Steelers

Brandon — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 06:15:07 -0000

by Mark Duncan - AP

View full size photo »

When I first saw this game on the schedule, I mentally penciled it in as a loss. As recently as a couple weeks ago, I still expected the Green Bay Packers would lose this game.

On November 9th, the Steelers beat their Broncos to move to 6-2, and they were favored to finish as the No. 2 seed in the AFC. Five consecutive losses later, the playoffs appear out of reach. On November 8th, the Packers were surprisingly beaten by the Buccaneers to fall to 4-4. Five consecutive wins later, the Packers are on the verge of locking up a wild card spot. These are two teams heading in two different directions.

Here are the official rankings from NFL.com:

Team	Run Offense	Pass Offense	Run Defense	Pass Defense
Packers	13	9	2	3
Steelers	16	12	1	13

Looking at the hidden yards, according to Football Outsiders, the Packers have the worst special teams unit in the NFL, while the Steelers are only 3rd worst. The Packers still lead the NFL in penalty yards per game at 71.9/game, while the Steelers are a little below average with 48.4/game. The Packers still lead the league with 48 sacks allowed, but the Steelers are bad too and have allowed 38 sacks.

Statistically this looks like a close matchup. The Steelers' offense is a notch below the Packers. The defenses are similar, but there is some weakness in the Steelers' secondary. As usual, the Packers are outperformed by their opponent on special teams, penalty yards, and sacks allowed. Add the hidden yards to the Steelers' home field advantage, offset by the Steelers' slight disadvantages on offense and defense, and it's understandable that the Steelers are favored by 1.

But something is wrong in Pittsburgh, and a statistical review just doesn't work this week. Here's a comment posted by Steelfrog at Behind the Steel Curtain:

That short of repeating, this might be the best thing that could have happened to this team. Now they’re going to have to take a long look at themselves and really try to get better. No more of the "yeah but we won the Superbowl that way" talk. The offense and special teams coaching needs improvement, the defense needs some retooling, time to go to work and find an identity…

Identity seems to be a key word for them right now. NYSteelersFan4 wrote about it too in his excellent FanPost. There was talk of change after their 4th loss in a row, at home to the Raiders, but Johnny_S didn't notice much change in the loss at the Browns. There might be a coaching makeover this offseason, primarily on special teams and offense. That might be a good idea: the Packers change of defensive coordinators from Bob Sanders to Dom Capers has made a world of difference. But look closely at the replacement. The Packers fired their special teams coach Mike Stock after the P Derrick Frost experience, and promoted from within. The result has been a complete special teams collapse.

The Steelers remind me of the 2008 Green Bay Packers. Last season, the Packers outscored their opponents but finished with a 6-10 record. This season, the Steelers are 6-7 and have outscored their opponents. The Steelers have lost their last 5 games by a combined of only 22 points, though 3 of those losses came against three of the worst teams in the NFL (Chiefs, Raiders, and Browns). Last season, the Packers were in a lot of close games too, but their flaws (usually the run defense) were constantly exposed. The Packers found so many different ways to lose that Football Outsiders began mocking them. Sometimes when teams start losing, and are losing for ways that are hard to pinpoint, it seems like they'll never turn it around. The Packers do it until they played such an incredible doormat at home (the 0-15 Lions) that it was almost impossible to lose.

So I expect this to be a close game again, but the Steelers will find someway to lose. The Packers' D has had trouble keeping teams from scoring TDs once they get in the red zone, and the Steelers should be able to get down that far twice. The Packers' offense settled for FGs last week against the Bears, so that might be something they again have a problem with again.

Packers 20, Steelers 17.

The APC Packers Jersey Contest - Week 3

Brandon — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 05:51:13 -0000

Here's the Week 1 post. Here's the Week 2 post. Plusch remains in the lead with 57 points, and the complete standings, overall and week 2 results, are after the jump. If you haven't let entered, go ahead and enter this week. If nothing else - Week 3 bragging rights! With the holidays coming up, I'm certain some of the current leaders will forget to enter each week. Plus the 10 point bonus questions should be getting easier as the month goes on to make it easier to catch up.

For the 4 games in December, I'm giving away an Acme Packers jersey from the Packers Pro Shop to the contestant with the highest cumulative score.

Here's how the scoring works. Each entry is worth up to 40 points. Guessing the teams' score is worth 10 points/team and -1 for each point it's off. Any question that is guessing about a player (just enter the player's last name) is worth 10 points if you are correct, 0 otherwise.

Here's how you can enter. In the comments, answer the following questions:

The Packers final score.
The Steelers final score.
Which quarterback will throw for the most yards?
Which running back will run for the most yards?

And make sure the email address you've provided when you registered your user name is correct so I can contact the winner. Good luck.

Overall Leader	Score
Plusch	57
cmadler	56
dc_allday	52
bizzle4	49
BleedsbluinMI	48
NoahJ	47
Tim V	46
Zorakathura	45
jglowack	43
rudi	42
Juicelaw	41
turd	41
Danwood	39
minipacker08	39
werner1	37
Packer Logician	34
PackApologist	28
BillJ	27
RangerSmurf	27
PirBrr	27
cheddarhead	26
Superelkman	26
sdsowlsa	26
TrevorR	25
BenSheets15	24
dchoubak	24
Michael M	23
pack attack	23
Dkmanty	22
texwestern	22
Bush League All Star	21
AdamA	21
Misfitprod	20
Strohman	20
packallday555	19
Ghostfoo	19
Hoosier Cheesehead	17
Steve From Florida	17
AaronR	16
Brewcityhoya13	16
Ryan Stern	16
LoungeFly	16
Moxieone	16
jjohnson17	15
Old World Flavor	15
BIGPAMPERINO	14
mkcubs21	13
MitchH	13
bAhtMANgreen	13
Killer B	12
vitaminx	11
FoulJack	9
BlazerFN	9
Hyatt	9
Troy J.	6
CheezeconQueso	4
blackoutsox	2
Raven	0

Week 2 Winner	Score
cmadler	32
bizzle4	29
rudi	28
Juicelaw	27
PirBrr	27
dc_allday	26
BleedsbluinMI	24
Danwood	23
pack attack	23
Michael M	23
Tim V	23
jglowack	23
Plusch	22
NoahJ	21
Misfitprod	20
Zorakathura	19
Packer Logician	18
turd	18
Steve From Florida	17
Moxieone	16
Ghostfoo	16
Ryan Stern	16
AaronR	16
RangerSmurf	15
jjohnson17	15
minipacker08	13
bAhtMANgreen	13
mkcubs21	13
Brewcityhoya13	13
Killer B	12
TrevorR	11
texwestern	11
packallday555	10
BIGPAMPERINO	10
werner1	10
cheddarhead	10
sdsowlsa	10
BenSheets15	10
Strohman	10
Dkmanty	8
Bush League All Star	8
CheezeconQueso	4
PackApologist	4
blackoutsox	2

Jermichael Finley: Wide Receiver

Brandon — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 04:44:34 -0000

A couple days ago I accidentally said WR Patrick Williams is the Green Bay Packers' No. 6 wide receiver. I corrected myself (he's only No. 5), but on second though it might have been a freudian slip. From Tom Silverstein at JSOnline.com:

Over the course of the last four games - all victories - Finley has been the target of more Aaron Rodgers passes than anybody else, including the top four receivers. Finley has been targeted 31 times compared with Greg Jennings' 28, Donald Driver's 26, James Jones' 12 and Jordy Nelson's four...

The gradual shift to a Finley-centric offense clearly has puzzled the team's wide receivers, who are used to being Rodgers' favorite targets...

He lined up all over the field, including in the slot or out wide with three receivers, and continually got favorably matchups on smaller, slower defensive backs.

Finley still does some things like a tight end. He might line up alongside a tackle on a running play, or stop in the backfield when he goes in motion to stay in as an extra blocker. But I usually notice him when he's lined up wide, or running a crossing route, like a wide receiver. When TE Donald Lee or TE Spencer Havner are catching passes, they are usually a check down receiver in the middle or out in the flat. Usually a tight end is drawing a linebacker in coverage, but as Tom Silverstein said, TE Jermichael Finley is often finding himself matched up against defensive backs. Which is what usually happens to a wide receiver.

Tom Silverstein went on to say that WR Greg Jennings and WR James Jones "were careful with their words" which isn't surprising. At least for Jones, he probably doesn't want to admit that Finley has moved ahead of him on the depth chart.

The one thing I'm not sure about is whether this is a good thing. According to Football Outsiders, Finley has been more productive than Jones this season. Moving Finley ahead of Jones is probably an improvement. But I wonder if WR Jordy Nelson would be even better in Finley's role if given the chance?

A Warrant Issued For Jolly; Packers Sign D.J. Clark

Brandon — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 02:58:23 -0000

I'll have the Green Bay Packers jersey contest up either tonight or tomorrow morning, along with a preview of the upcoming game against the Steelers.

So DE Johnny Jolly's legal problems are a little complex. According to Greg Bedard, he could be detained on a Harris County (Texas) warrant if he's detained anywhere. He's not worried about it, so I guess we shouldn't be either, from Greg Bedard:

"I just heard about it last night," Jolly said. "I'm just going to let my lawyer take care of whatever."

Jolly said his legal situation won't be a distraction.

"I can't let that come in between what's going on with this team," he said. "It's difficult but I have to still look forward. I don't want it to be a distraction to me or my teammates."

After they made some room on the practice squad by elevating WR Patrick Williams to the active roster (I goofed yesterday and counted wrong: he's only the No. 5 (not 6) WR on the active roster), they signed CB D.J. Clark to fill their empty spot on the practice squad. From NFL Draft Scout, Clark is a tall (6'1") defensive back who played a lot of football (45 starts) in college. He was in camp this year for the Panthers, but "he hasn't done anything to warrant a serious look." It doesn't sound like he's likely to stick with the team for long.

WR Patrick Williams Signed From The Practice Squad

Brandon — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 04:41:14 -0000

by Patrick Semansky - AP

about 1 month ago: Carolina Panthers running back DeAngelo Williams (34), running back Tyrell Sutton, behind, and center Ryan Kalil (67) celebrate after DeAngelo's touchdown against the New Orleans Saints in the first half of an NFL football game in New Orleans, Sunday, Nov. 8, 2009. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)

View full size photo »

The Green Bay Packers made a roster move: signing WR Patrick Williams from the practice squad and releasing WR Biren Ealy. Here's what I wrote about the two receivers back in October:

As to the two receivers signed: WR Patrick Williams was barely mentioned here at all after a quiet preseason, but he should be familiar with the offense and have a short learning curve. WR Biren Ealy worked with the Saints and Ravens so far this season, but spent time dropping passes for the Titans in 2008.

I'm not really sure why they need a 6th WR on the active roster. There are a couple other guys on the roster, T Breno Giacomini and S Matt Giordano, who don't seem to fill a need on the roster either. Not that they especially need a 3rd QB or a 4th RB, but why did they let go of guys like QB Brian Brohm and RB Tyrell Sutton, and keep other guys like Giacomini, Giordano, and Williams?

Stopping The Steelers On Third Down

Brandon — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 05:24:45 -0000

by Mark Duncan - AP

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (7) is sacked for a loss by Cleveland Browns defensive tackle Corey Williams in the first quarter of an NFL football game Thursday, Dec. 10, 2009, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Mark Duncan) The former Packer had 2 sacks against the Steelers, which doubled his sack total (4) for the season.

View full size photo »

From Tom Pelissero's tape review, about the Green Bay Packers new Psycho defense (1 lineman, 5 LBs, 5 DBs):

In all, DC Dom Capers ran "psycho" six times, all on third down, and the Bears converted only one — a 19-yard strike from Cutler to WR Devin Aromashodu a tick before a trio including Jenkins got home.

DE Cullen Jenkins was the one remaining lineman, and he was the most effective player in the Psycho package. But, as Football Outsiders pointed out, QB Jay Cutler was usually in a bind on 3rd down because of their struggles on 1st and 2nd down:

As a sign of how effective Matt Forte and the Bears' offensive line were on Sunday, here's the number of yards Cutler had to pick up to convert on third down, listed chronologically: 21, 8, 18, 9, 12, 1, 5, 10, 22, 11. That's an average of 11.7 yards to go; the average quarterback needs to gain an average of 7.7 yards on third down to get a new set to work with.

Overall the Bears were 5 of 13 on 3rd down, so they were a respectable 4 of 7 on 3rd down when the Packers were not in the Psycho package. That might be an indication that the Packers are not good on 3rd down in a base package, or that they only used the Psycho package on 3rd and very long. The Packers' opponents have only converted 34.7% of their 3rd down chances this season, which is currently 6th best in the NFL.

For the season, the Steelers are about league average on 3rd down, converting 38.1% of the time, but 3rd down was a disaster for them last week against the Browns. Again, from Football Outsiders:

How do you score six points in 60 minutes against the Browns? Drop back 11 times on third down and convert exactly one of them. Roethlisberger even failed to complete a pass on the first nine of those attempts, taking five sacks and throwing four incompletions.

I thought that maybe the Steelers were putting themselves into a lot of 3rd and long situations, but in the first half against against the Browns, the Steelers failed to convert on 3rd and 1, 3, 1, 7, 5, and 19. I didn't even look at the second half because the first half showed that they had a lot of 3rd and short opportunities on which they failed to pick up a 1st down.

John Harris of the Tribune-Review points out that the Steelers were able to convert on 3rd down when they ran the ball, but on their current 5 game losing streak, they have only converted on 3rd down between 20% to 38% of the time. So that's converting only 28% of their 3rd down chances over their last 5 games.

There seems to be a lot going wrong for the Steelers on offense at the moment.

Johnny Jolly Charged With Felony Possession

Brandon — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 04:24:54 -0000

More photos » by Jim Prisching - AP

3 months ago: Green Bay Packers defensive tackle Johnny Jolly reacts after intercepting a pass during the first half of an NFL football game against the Chicago Bears on Sunday, Sept. 13, 2009, in Green Bay, Wis. (AP Photo/Jim Prisching)

Browse more photos »

If you haven't heard about the charges against Green Bay Packers' DE Johnny Jolly, they've been ongoing since July 2008. The charges were delayed back in July 2009 because the Houston police department was having problems with a new machine to measure the amount of codeine in water (ahh...the things I get to write about). So it's no surprise that the charges have been refiled. I have no idea how this might effect him this season.

If he does miss time this season due to these charges, it would hurt their depth, but it would not be a critical loss. NT Ryan Pickett should return next week from his hamstring injury, and DE B.J. Raji and DE Cullen Jenkins were both able to play last week. DE Jarius Wynn would probably become the top backup, but if defensive coordinator keeps playing the Psycho defense (1 lineman, 5 LBs, and 5 DBs) they would have plenty of defensive lineman available. Jolly has played well this season, but as the roster currently stands, they would be fine in his absence.

Packers Monday Presser: Injuries And Offense

Brandon — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 05:38:34 -0000

For the Green Bay Packers, Mike McCarthy on the injuries:

Johnny Jolly, he will probably miss some practice time this week with his knee sprain. Ryan Pickett will test probably Wednesday, possibly Thursday, to see if he'll go later in the week. Brandon Underwood, he will be limited this week in practice. And B.J. Raji will also be limited this week in practice.

For the second week in a row, a number of defensive lineman are banged up. But he didn't mention DE Cullen Jenkins who was limited in practice last week.

He was also asked why fantasy star QB Aaron Rodgers laid an egg just as the fantasy playoffs started, and McCarthy said there were "two minuses for the offense":

Our two biggest failures were No. 1, giving the ball away, and No. 2, the third-down production.

The two turnovers, a fumble by TE Jermichael Finley at the end of the first half, and a fumble by Rodgers on the first drive of the second half, were both in Bear territory, and ended potential scoring drives. Obviously turnovers are always bad.

But the third-down production comment was surprising. The Packers were 5 for 13 on 3rd down, plus 1 for 1 on 4th down, against the Bears. That's either a 38% or 43% success rate, if you factor in the 4th down conversion. The Packers have the 5th best 3rd down conversion rate this season at 45.2% (the Colts are No. 1 at 51.6%). I understand a coach will always want push his players to improve, but it was odd for him to mention something that they've been good at this season. Maybe the two failed 3rd down conversions in the red zone during the first half are stuck in his mind.

On the continuing struggles of K Mason Crosby:

(Are you going to bring in any kickers this week or work any out?)
I'll just say this. I have all the confidence in the world in Mason Crosby. As far as what players, what position, we bring players in here all the time on Tuesday, and I've never commented on it in the past, and I won't today. But I have all the confidence in the world in Mason Crosby.

I've got no patience for the lousy special teams performance on kick and punt coverage (and returns...) this season, but I agree with McCarthy on this one. Crosby has a league leading 8 missed FGs, and has only made 75% overall. But it didn't look like QB Matt Flynn did him any big favors holding both of his misses in the last two weeks. He's only made 1 of 5 attempts beyond 50 yards. I wouldn't be expecting many kickers would do well from that distance. Three teams this season haven't even attempted a field goal beyond 50 yards this season. Pull out those 4 misses (and 1 made) and he's an average kicker (85% made). Not a ringing endorsement, but it's not time to find any guy off the street either.

Packers Sign Chillar to a 4 Year Extension

Brandon — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 06:14:09 -0000

First reported by Adam Schefter, the Green Bay Packers signed LB Brandon Chillar to a 4 year contract extension for $21 million. About $7 million is guaranteed, but he's almost certain to receive the $9.5 million he's due before the end of 2010. That's a lot of money for a sometime starter who will probably be the backup behind LB A.J. Hawk for the rest of the season. But they had to pay him more than LB Brady Poppinga, who received a 4 year, $17 million extension last year. At least Chillar starts sometimes.

I don't like either contract given to Chillar or Poppinga, LB Desmond Bishop is probably just as good for a fraction of the price, but I'm willing to give GM Ted Thompson a pass here. Overall he's done a great job at identifying talent in the draft and avoiding high price free agent busts. But he's a former backup LB himself, and he apparently has a sweet spot for them. So long as it doesn't stop the Packers from signing important potential free agents such as FS Nick Collins.