SB Nation User Blog: BraveBronco0121

Comparing the 09 Heels to the 05 squad...

BraveBronco0121 — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 18:21:58 -0000

In the wake of UNC's dominant NCAA tournament performance this year, there's been plenty of conversation here in the triangle about where this team stacks up with the 2005 squad that earned the university it's first title of this decade. It's an interesting comparison - the teams are very similar in some ways yet different in some of the not so minor details. So, without further ado, let's get at it.

The tale of the tape :

UNC '04-05

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency - 126.6 (1st in the nation)

Adjusted Defensive Efficiency - 86.7 (5th)

Tempo - 73.9 Possessions/game (7th)

UNC '08-09 (as of first posting, Ken Pomery has not updated these to reflect the NCAA Championship Game, so they are subject to change slightly)

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency - 123.7 (1st)

Adjusted Defensive Efficiency - 90.0 (16th)

Tempo - 73.8 Posessions/game (8th)

At first blush, these teams are near replicas of each other in terms of offense and pace. Defensively, the 05 squad appears to be a clear champion here, but again the last game against MSU hasn't been factored into the equation yet. It's possible this year's team will jump slightly in defensive efficiency once they are updated for the final time.

Starting Lineup, 05

C - Sean May (118.6 ORating, 16.6 OReb%, 26.1 DReb %)

F - Jawad Williams (122.9 ORating, 7.0 OReb%, 10.7 DReb%)

F/G - Jackie Manuel (105.1 ORating, 3.4 Steal%)

G - Rashad McCants (119.1 ORating, 2.9 Steal%)

G - Ray Felton (110.7 ORating, 34.6 Assist Rate, 3.6 Steal%)

Bench, 05

F - Marvin Williams (119.4 ORating, 9.4 OReb%, 21.7 DReb%, 2.8 Steal%)

F - David Noel (112.3 ORating, 3.1 Steal%)

G - Melvin Scott (110.9 ORating, 2.5 Steal %)

The 05 team's 8 man rotation was absolutely stacked - 4 first round NBA draft picks (including one off the bench!) supplemented by excellent roleplayers like Noel and Scott. Sean May was easily the best rebounder in college basketball in his final season with the Heels. Jawad Williams is probably the most overlooked contributor of the bunch - his ability to finish around the basket and step out to hit the three point shot made it all the more difficult to focus on the team's trio of stars.

On to the present...

Starting Lineup 09

F - Tyler Hansbrough (125.8 ORating, 11.3 OReb%, 16.6 DReb%, 7.8 Fouls Drawn per 40 minutes)

F - Deon Thompson (107.8 ORating, 8.4 OReb%, 15.6 DReb%)

F - Danny Green (121.6 ORating, 3.5 Steal%, 4.5 Block%)

G - Wayne Ellington (122.4 Orating)

G - Ty Lawson (135.8 ORating, 35.7 Assist Rate, 3.5 Steal%)

Bench 09

F - Ed Davis (108.2 ORating, 12.9 OReb%, 23.2 DReb%, 8.7 Block%)

G - Bobby Frasor (98.0 ORating)

The first thing about this team that jumps out is the insane efficiency of the top four players - Hansbrough, Lawson, Ellington, and Green - all of whom were in the top 50 nationally in that category. Speaking of Green, his across the board contributions as a defender and a sharpshooting 4th option were, like Jawad Williams' in 05, a key that could be overlooked when looking back on this team.

The second thing is that were we to base it on performance and ignore the effect it could have had on his confidence, Thompson had no business in that lineup with Davis on the bench. Ed Davis is, dare I say, the best post defender UNC has seen in over a decade, combining incredible length and athleticism with excellent instincts. He's not too shabby as a scorer either, though he does need some refinement.

Finally, this team isn't nearly as deep as the 05 group largely due to injury suffered by Ginyard and Zeller that kept them out of the rotation. Frasor, despite seeing solid minutes, was little more than a placeholder to let Lawson rest a bit. It's hard to imagine how much better this team could have been with Ginyard and Zeller playing alongside this group.

Realistically, you'd be picking hairs to decide which of these units was better. The team that just won the title was better defensively than the numbers would suggest considering their propensity to take a game off on that end every now and then. Both dominated offensively with an enviable balance of interior bangers and perimeter shooters. Both won titles. Both produced/will produce at least five NBA players. The coaching staff is a wash (they've stuck around!), and I'm tempted to call the whole thing one as well.

On a final note, it's amazing how lucky we are as UNC fans to even be having this discussion. Only UF has had two championships in this decade, and unlike them we look to continue as a year in/year out contender for the final four. It's a great time to be a Heels fan...

A little graphage on Andruw Jones and Carlos Beltran

BraveBronco0121 — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 00:13:56 -0000

A little graphage on Andruw Jones and Carlos Beltran

Andruw Jones v. Carlos Beltran, WAR from Rally's database.

BraveBronco0121 — Sun, 08 Mar 2009 19:42:40 -0000

Andruw Jones v. Carlos Beltran, WAR from Rally's database.

Andruw v. Ozzie, WAR

BraveBronco0121 — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 22:29:01 -0000

Andruw v. Ozzie, WAR

Myself and another guy at BtB got into it over these two defensive stalwarts, so Sky did a graph. Cool stuff.

Braves Blogosphere Roundup, in case you missed this stuff

BraveBronco0121 — Wed, 25 Feb 2009 05:02:52 -0000

Harry over at BtB gave us this breakdown of Glavine's pitching habits

Also at BtB, Erik runs down the Braves minor league OFers. Nothing new to most of us, but the PECOTA peak projections are cool.

Fangraphs took on the Garret Anderson signing

J.C. Bradbury is moderately pleased with Anderson. He also doesn't seem to like this Gwinnett thing, in case you hadn't noticed

Jayson Stark likes the new Braves rotation

Over at The Good Phight, some random folks from this blog crashed the projection party screaming bias

And generally, I figured this was too much for a fanshot.

Francoeur's Arbitration - what's really being said

BraveBronco0121 — Sun, 15 Feb 2009 11:35:45 -0000

Francoeur's Arbitration - what's really being said

courtesy of Joe Posnanski

Pretty much the best evaluation of Dunn you can ask for...

BraveBronco0121 — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 16:42:58 -0000

Pretty much the best evaluation of Dunn you can ask for...

"The fact is that Dunn isn't as good as his offensive numbers would lead you to believe, but he's still a +2 win player. Maybe not a difference maker -- despite the annual 40 HR's a year -- but he could be a good, solid addition to a team needing to make the push into a higher win total. I still think whatever contract he'll receive is one of the more interesting topics left on the free agent market. Just don't expect him to defend."

Community Projection Project : Derek Lowe

BraveBronco0121 — Fri, 23 Jan 2009 02:13:46 -0000

Alright, time to switch over to the rotation for a little bit. Derek Lowe needs little introduction here and I don't really feel like writing a lot right now, so I'm going straight to the numbers.

2006 (age 33) : 218 innings pitched, 123/55 K/BB, 14 HR, 3.86 GB/FB, 3.63 ERA

2007 (age 34) : 199 innings pitched, 147/59 K/BB, 20 HR, 3.38 GB/FB, 3.88 ERA

2008 (age 35) : 211 innings pitched, 147/45 K/BB, 14 HR, 2.63 GB/FB, 3.24 ERA

It's pretty obvious just looking at the numbers what Lowe is - a nasty sinkerballer. Certainly doesn't miss a ton of bats, but he demonstrates excellent control and keeps the ball in the dirt. It's worth noting that his 2008 ground ball ratio was the lowest of the past seven seasons and his second consecutive year of decline. Still, 2.6 to 1 is way above average - consider that Tim Hudson, himself a severe ground ball pitcher, has a career average of 2.55 to 1.

CHONE has Lowe down for 171 innings pitched at a 3.71 ERA. I tend to think that this is conservative on the IP, but the ERA looks about right. I would project him for ~185 innings. At a 3.71 ERA, that's good for 41 runs above replacement.

You know the drill now - I want your opinions.

Community Projection Project : Kelly Johnson

BraveBronco0121 — Tue, 20 Jan 2009 23:48:47 -0000

With Brian McCann in the book, tis time to move on to second base. Kelly Johnson, now going into his third full year with the big league club, seems to be a lock for the starting job unless we have an out-of-the-blue trade.

2005 (age 23) : 334 PA, .241/.334/.397, .323 wOBA

2006 (age 24) : Missed due to Tommy John surgery

2007 (age 25) : 608 PA, .276/.375/.457, .363 wOBA

2008 (age 26) : 614 PA, .287/.349/.446, .346 wOBA

Johnson's 2005 debut showed promise - his selectivity at the plate was well advanced (12% BB rate) and while he didn't show much power for the big league club, his minor league numbers indicated above average pop. Baseball Prospectus regarded him quite highly, comparing him favorably to both Francoeur and McCann in their 2006 annual. Unfortunately, Johnson's development was put on hold after requiring surgery to repair a torn elbow ligament.

After completing rehab, Johnson moved from the outfield to second base and won the job during 2007 spring training. It was to be a breakout campaign for Kelly. He managed to cut his strikeout rate, raise his average, hit for more power, and maintain his excellent discipline at the dish. The defensive transition was a little rough - UZR pegged him for -8.4 runs per 150 games played at second base.

2008 saw some rather serious regression in Johnson's game. His walk rate fell off significantly - from 13% all the way down to 8.7% - and his isolated power dropped by .20 points. There were some bright signs though, as his strikeout rate declined for the second consecutive year. As in 2007, the defense wasn't exactly masterful, though it is worth noting that his UZR/150 was exactly the same as it had been the year prior.

CHONE projects Kelly for a .281/.371/.451 year in 2009 - a combination of his improved contact skills and a 2007esque walk rate with an ISO somewhere in between. With no other serious contenders for the second base job, I tend to think that 600 plate appearances is a solid estimation at this time. Defensively, he's clearly below average, but no butcher either. -7 runs seems safe to me.

Overall, I like this projection, though I do have lingering doubts that TP may be coaching him towards a more hacktastic style at the plate.

As before, everyone is encouraged to participate - just keep it friendly.

Community Projection Project : Brian McCann

BraveBronco0121 — Mon, 19 Jan 2009 15:59:41 -0000

Alright, as I have neither class nor work today, I think it's a good time to start discussing the Community Projection Project. For those of you who are not familiar with it, I would suggest that you check out this thread at Beyond The Box Score to get an idea of what we're trying to do. Everyone here at Talking Chop is welcome to chip in with their two cents on the forcasts for Atlanta's 2009 season.

Right now, I'd like to start with the guys who have well-established roles on the Braves. We won't really know how the bench and bullpen will shake out until spring training, but we can be sure about most of the starting lineup.

What better place to start than the best catcher in the National League?

Brian McCann

2005 (age 21): 204 plate appearances, .278/.345/.400, .319 wOBA

2006 (age 22): 492 plate appearances, .333/.388/.572, .402 wOBA

2007 (age 23): 552 plate appearances, .270/.320/.452, .328 wOBA

2008 (age 24): 509 plate appearances, .301/.373/.523, .387 wOBA

Brian McCann, one of the many "Baby Braves" that debuted in the 2005 season, has been the best catcher in the NL over the last three years, and 2008 saw a major improvement in his plate discipline. For the first time as a major leaguer, McCann's walk rate topped 10%, up from the ~7.25% of his first two full seasons. This is a major step forward for McCann, who has been a very batting average dependent player for most of his professional career.

Speaking of batting average, McCann has all the makings of a .300 hitter. He makes very consistent contact (85% contact rate) and seldom strikes out (12% K rate for his career).

Overall, McCann profiles as a very well rounded offensive player, one who hits for average, power, and as of 2008, draws a good ammount of walks. So, what do the projection models see for him in 2009?

Marcels: 542 plate appearances, .297/.360/.501, .367 wOBA

CHONE: 503 plate appearances, .297/.368/.503, .379 wOBA

Bill James: 571 plate appearances, .301/.370/.525, .387 wOBA

Clearly, Bill James is the most bullish on McCann - basically a repeat of his monsterous 2008 campaign with 20 more plate appearances. CHONE and Marcels are cautious in their own ways, with predictions of fewer plate appearances and a significant regression respectively. It's worth noting that even the more cautious projection models would have him as one of the top catchers in the big leagues in 2009.

Overall, as it usually is, the truth probably lies somewhere in between the three. Marcels is, to my mind, expecting too much regression in McCann's walk rate. It is not at all unusual for a 24 year old player to establish a new level of performance as he enters his peak and I see no reason to think that McCann's newfound patience is illusory. His plate discipline data (like much of the data I cite, it's available for free at Fangraphs) indicates that he swung at fewer pitches, both balls and strikes, than he had in 2006 or 2007. It seems to indicate an increase in selectiveness at the plate - an excellent thing to have when you're a .300 hitting catcher with plus power. he BJ projection (no sophomoric humor please) is very optimistic about his playing time, and it probably represents a best case scenario and not the mean.

Personally, I think it's safe to peg McCann for 530 plate appearances with a .380 wOBA. For those of you without a spreadsheet in front of you, that line is good for 27 runs above average with the bat. Combine that with the positional adjustment for catchers (+12.5 runs per 162 games) and replacement level (25 runs below average per 162) we have McCann's value right around 50 runs above replacement, good for ~5 wins before we account for defense. This post is getting big enough as is though, and I'll save that for another day.

As I said earlier, I welcome all the input I can get from the Talking Chop community. This is a collaborative effort, and I'm sure most of you have valuable information contribute. I only ask that you keep the discussion respectful.