
Bravofan
Jan 05, 2009 Jan 12, 2009 1 17
RSSUser Blog
Could Dunn be a option?
The Braves could intrigue Dunn; they have interest in him, but not on a long-term deal at his desired average salary of $12 million to $14 million, sources say. Though at one point he believed to fetch $16-$20 million per year and yet you can get this guy $12-$14million? Bargain IMO.
Dunn obviously would prefer a contract longer than two years, but at the right salary with an option could make sense.
He would be only 32 when he re-entered the market, presumably in a better economy. At that point, he might be sitting on 390 homers, giving his next team the chance to market his 500th and perhaps even his 600th.
If we were to sign Dunn lets compare our 3-4-5 to the rest of the NL East powers.
Braves vs Phillies vs Mets
3. Chipper Jones vs. Chase Utley vs. David Wright
2008 Stats
CJ = .364 AVG 22 HR 075 RBI 090 BB 061 K .470 OBP .574 SLG OPS 1.044
CU = .292 AVG 33 HR 104 RBI 064 BB 104 K .380 OBP .535 SLG OPS 0.915
DW = .302 AVG 33 HR 124 RBI 094 BB 118 K .390 OBP .534 SLG OPS 0.924
Breakdown
While it appears that David Wright and Chase Utley are superior in the power game it is actually much closer than most people think. Chipper's HR/AB is 19.59 Utley's is 18.39 and Wright's is 18.96. In all other categories Chipper was far and beyond all the other players with a 2/3 K/BB vs. 3.5/2 for Utley and a 1.25/1 for Wright. Also his OBP and his OPS were nearly 100 points higher. Now I know that age is a factor so not speaking long term if I had my choice for ONE SEASON i have to take Chipper Jones here.
4. Adam Dunn vs Ryan Howard vs Carlos Beltran
AD = .236 AVG 40 HR 100 RBI 122 BB 164 K .386 OBP .513 SLG OPS 0.898
RH = .251 AVG 48 HR 146 RBI 081 BB 199 K .339 OBP .533 SLG OPS 0.881
CB = .284 AVG 27 HR 112 RBI 092 BB 096 K .376 OBP .500 SLG OPS 0.876
Looking here at how Equivalent these three players actually are. When it comes to power Beltran is nowhere near the HR threat these guys are but he makes up for it with a higher average doubles and K/BB ratio. The other two are mash it 500 feet or strike out with the major difference being that Dunn will accept more walks thus the higher OBP. Clearly given the choice its a no brainer that You take Ryan Howard 1 because he got off to a horrible start last year and I expect his average to be more around the .275 - .280 range thus helping his OPS and OBP, but Adam Dunn is not very far behind people.
5. Brian McCann vs Raul Ibanez vs Carlos Delgado
Do I really need to spell this one out?
Over all when it comes down to it the Braves (and yes i may be a little biased but I think I produced some good facts here) have the best 3-4-5 in the NL East. Yes I know Chipper will missing his normal 25-40 games in 09' though it would be much easier with Dunn in the 4th spot and slide in a KJ or Escobar and slide everyone else up to be effective line up. To be honest... the Braves would be stupid not to try to sign Dunn... he is a $16-20M/yr player in a normal market and we could potentially get him for $12-14M/yr... and not lose a draft pick for compensation. I dont care he isnt a good fielder... he mashes the ball and will protect Chipper. 2/26 with an option would be Ideal signing for the braves.
Dunn obviously would prefer a contract longer than two years, but at the right salary with an option could make sense.
He would be only 32 when he re-entered the market, presumably in a better economy. At that point, he might be sitting on 390 homers, giving his next team the chance to market his 500th and perhaps even his 600th.
If we were to sign Dunn lets compare our 3-4-5 to the rest of the NL East powers.
Braves vs Phillies vs Mets
3. Chipper Jones vs. Chase Utley vs. David Wright
2008 Stats
CJ = .364 AVG 22 HR 075 RBI 090 BB 061 K .470 OBP .574 SLG OPS 1.044
CU = .292 AVG 33 HR 104 RBI 064 BB 104 K .380 OBP .535 SLG OPS 0.915
DW = .302 AVG 33 HR 124 RBI 094 BB 118 K .390 OBP .534 SLG OPS 0.924
Breakdown
While it appears that David Wright and Chase Utley are superior in the power game it is actually much closer than most people think. Chipper's HR/AB is 19.59 Utley's is 18.39 and Wright's is 18.96. In all other categories Chipper was far and beyond all the other players with a 2/3 K/BB vs. 3.5/2 for Utley and a 1.25/1 for Wright. Also his OBP and his OPS were nearly 100 points higher. Now I know that age is a factor so not speaking long term if I had my choice for ONE SEASON i have to take Chipper Jones here.
4. Adam Dunn vs Ryan Howard vs Carlos Beltran
AD = .236 AVG 40 HR 100 RBI 122 BB 164 K .386 OBP .513 SLG OPS 0.898
RH = .251 AVG 48 HR 146 RBI 081 BB 199 K .339 OBP .533 SLG OPS 0.881
CB = .284 AVG 27 HR 112 RBI 092 BB 096 K .376 OBP .500 SLG OPS 0.876
Looking here at how Equivalent these three players actually are. When it comes to power Beltran is nowhere near the HR threat these guys are but he makes up for it with a higher average doubles and K/BB ratio. The other two are mash it 500 feet or strike out with the major difference being that Dunn will accept more walks thus the higher OBP. Clearly given the choice its a no brainer that You take Ryan Howard 1 because he got off to a horrible start last year and I expect his average to be more around the .275 - .280 range thus helping his OPS and OBP, but Adam Dunn is not very far behind people.
5. Brian McCann vs Raul Ibanez vs Carlos Delgado
Do I really need to spell this one out?
Over all when it comes down to it the Braves (and yes i may be a little biased but I think I produced some good facts here) have the best 3-4-5 in the NL East. Yes I know Chipper will missing his normal 25-40 games in 09' though it would be much easier with Dunn in the 4th spot and slide in a KJ or Escobar and slide everyone else up to be effective line up. To be honest... the Braves would be stupid not to try to sign Dunn... he is a $16-20M/yr player in a normal market and we could potentially get him for $12-14M/yr... and not lose a draft pick for compensation. I dont care he isnt a good fielder... he mashes the ball and will protect Chipper. 2/26 with an option would be Ideal signing for the braves.
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