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Brendan Scolari

Aug 06, 2008 May 13, 2012 241 12066

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Big Blue View Post-Draft Crack at the 53 Man Roster

Offense: 24

QB: Manning, Carr

RB:Bradshaw, Wilson, Scott

FB: Hynoski

WR: Nicks. Cruz, Randle, Jernigan, Barden, Hixon

TE: Bennett, Pascoe, Robinson

T: Beatty, Diehl, Locklear, Brewer

G: Snee, Petrus, Boothe, Mosley

C: Baas

Defense: 26

DE: Pierre-Paul, Tuck, Osi, Trattou

DT: Canty, Joseph, Austin, Rogers, Kuhn

LB: Boley, Rivers, Kiwi, J-Will, Herzlich, Blackburn, Greg Jones

CB: Webster, Thomas, Amukamara, Hosley, Tryon, Bruce Johnson

S: Phillips, Rolle, Sash, Horton

Special Teams: 3

Weatherford, Tynes, DeOssie

PUP: 2

Ballard, Beckum

Practice Squad: 8

Perriloux, Janzen Jackson, Hopkins, Paysinger, McCants, DePalma, Martinek, Tailey

Even though it's hard to know how guys are gonna look at this point, I thought it'd be fun to speculate a bit. What do you think? I really liked Joe Martinek from his highlights and think he could develop into a John Kuhn/Mike Tolbert type but just couldn't find room for him on the roster, although perhaps the G-men could carry another back (already cut Ware here, and he has a good chance of making the team). The last 5 guys on were Horton, Kuhn, Greg Jones, Hixon, and the last O-lineman (take your pick). Would be tough know what to do with all those tight ends if Beckum gets activated off the PUP, as I really like Robinson but the other two guys might be valuable contributors too. Let me know what you think the roster will look like in the comments.

27 comments  |  1 recs | 

Bolts From The Blue Two Offseason Questions

1. Does anyone know the likelyhood that the pick the Chargers received from the Jets in the Cromartie trade is a second rounder instead of a third rounder? I know it could become a second rounder based on playing time and Cromartie has played in all 15 games so far this season, so it seems that if the condition was that he had to play in 80% of the defensive snaps or something, he would reach that mark. I haven't heard much talk about it though, and most mock drafts still have the Jets keeping their second rounder, so I'm not sure if people think it will end up being a 3rd round pick going to the Chargers or not.

 

2. Is there any reason to let Vincent Jackson walk for nothing through free agency? Why wouldn't AJ Smith use the franchise tag on him and then trade him? It seems that there's practically no risk in doing so, as I can't imagine there wouldn't be a team willing to give up something for him. Even if he can't match the two 2nd rounders Brandon Marshall fetched last offseason, I find it hard to imagine AJ couldn't get at least a 2nd rounder for him. That would be much better than having to wait until next offseason to get a possible 3rd round compensatory pick. I just don't see any sense in letting Jackson just walk because of a grudge, it's just bad business.

3 comments  | 

Niners Nation Thrilled, Content, or Bummed

I saw this somewhere else, and I thought it was a good idea for draft day. Basically you just list three things that could happen today (or Friday or Saturday) that might happen that would make you thrilled with the Niners draft, three things that would leave you content but not feeling really strong either way, and three things that would bum you out. You can just list players that you want or don't want the Niners to draft, or you can list certain positions or scenarios or anything else you can think of. Here's mine:

 

Thrilled: Trading back with 13 or 17, Earl Thomas, and one of the local RB's in the 2nd-3rd round (Best or Gerhart)

Content: CJ Spiller, Anthony Davis, and drafting a safety besides Berry or Thomas

Bummed: Trading up from 13 or 17, drafting any front seven player in the 1st round besides Dan Williams, and drafting a QB besides Bradford or Clausen on Day 1 or Day 2

What about you?

32 comments  | 

Niners Nation What do you think of Dashon Goldson?

I made this fanpost because I wanted to see what people here at NN think of Dashon Goldson, and hopefully with an open forum of discussion we can come to a conclusion. Goldson seems to be a bit of a polarizing player. I've heard an seen opinions of his ability ranging from, "He's an up and coming stud who we need to get locked up to an extension right now" to, " He was a huge hole in coverage and the Niners need to find a replacement immediately", which is a much wider range of opinions than you here with most players.

What piques my interest most when it comes to Goldson is his terrible rating at Pro Football Focus. Out of the 86 safeites who played at least 25% of their teams' snaps, PFF rates Goldson 82nd (meaning he was the 6th worse safety in the NFL among qualifying players). This is just one source of data of course, and because their methods are not completely transparent I think some skepticism is fair, but such a terrible opinion of Goldson's play from a seemingly unbiased source does merit more investigation. A further look shows that Goldson has a positive rating against the run (+2.4, which would rank him 22nd amongst qualifiers) but he actually has the worst pass coverage rating of any safety in the NFL (-14.8). While I do think the deep pass was a problem for the Niners defense all year, it was still surprising to see Goldson this low.

His pass coverage stats do not seem to back up such a low rating. he was thrown at 52 times (5th among safeties) which is a lot, but also played the 2nd most snaps of any safety, which makes the plethora of attempts a bit less alarming. The completion percentage on passes thrown at Goldson was 65.5%, which was only the 32nd highest among safeties. His YPA (12.9) and QB rating (78.8) on passes thrown at him were both middle of the pack, ranking 33rd and 40th respectively. The one thing I did find was that Goldson had 13 missed tackles, 6th most among safeties, and 9 of those came on passing plays, so perhaps that drove his ranking way down. PFF wrote articles about each team's biggest offeseason need after the season ended, and for the Niners they picked safety because of Goldson (and Michael Lewis') poor pass coverage ratings, and here's wat they said about Goldson):

...Most disastrous is the safety pairing of Dashon Goldson and Michael Lewis. Both were strong in run defense but lacking in coverage last season. Goldson in particular failed to grasp the chance he was given to entrench himself as a starter. Giving him a second season while hoping for improvement would be very risky. He was among the leaders in missed tackles at the safety position with 13 (tied with Louis Delmas and Laron Landry for sixth-most). Nine of those came on pass plays, interestingly enough. Goldson may improve, but his performance in 2009 may have been too poor to risk a repeat performance when there are options out there to provide immediate upgrade.
The 49ers got their other starting safety, Lewis, from a team in the state of Pennsylvania and until 2009 had received strong returns from the former Eagle. The 49ers will need to once again analyze the free agent class for upgrades at the safety position...

This quite clearly doesn't jive with many Niners fans' opinions of Lewis, as it seems many think he's an up an coming starter. I wonder how much of that has to do with Goldson's 4 interceptions this year. While he certainly deserves credit for getting them, stats with such small sample sizes tend to have a lot of variance from year to yaer, and I'm not sure if Goldson deserves the ball-hawk label that I've heard some tag him with after just one year. However, I do also think there are some people who side with PFF to some extent because of the prevalence of Eric Berry in mock drafts here. If Berry was drafted by the Niners he would be replacing Goldson, although Goldson could potentially slide over and play strong safety instead of Michael Lewis.  He did have a lot of missed tackles but since most of those were on passing plays, perhaps he just has a tougher time with smaller, quicker receivers rather than running backs.

Anyway, I just wanted to try to get a clearer grasp on what people think Goldson's abilities are. Is he a liability or an asset right now? Does he still have lots of untapped potential or is he just not really good enough to be a starter in the NFL? If he can't start at free safety, would you consider him a potential starter at strong safety or is Michael Lewis (or someone else) likely to be better than him for the forseeable future?

Poll
What do you think of Dashon Goldson right now?
He's a poor free safety and is not someone the Niners should start at either safety spot long term.
2 votes
He's currently a poor free safety, but has the talent to become a decent starting free safety.
7 votes
He's poor at free safety, but would be a decent starting strong safety.
32 votes
He's a decent starter at free safety, but nothing special.
51 votes
He is an above average starter at free safety and the Niners should try to get him to sign a contract extension for the forseeable future.
72 votes

164 votes | Poll has closed

61 comments  | 

The National Football Post top 100 prospects rankings are insane. Their "grading scale" must be picking names out of a hat or something. Among the more hilarious rankings:

Maurkice Pouncey 4th overall
Aaron Hernandez 6th overall
Jahvid Best 9th overall (ahead of Spiller)
John Jerry 14th overall
Matt Tennant, Jonathon Dwyer, and J.D. Walton ranked in the 20's (ahead of Sam Bradford!)
Jason Pierre-Paul #44 overall (behind Tony Moeaki and Anthony Dixon)
Taylor Mays, Carlos Dunlap, Anthony Davis, and Bruce Campbell ranked in the 60's (behind Ciron Black, Mike Johnson, and Jason Fox)
Everson Griffin, Golden Tate, and Trent Williams ranked in the 70's (Williams is behind Chris Scott)
Ryan Matthews ranked in the 80's

Did they forget that it's still a week before April Fool's Day?

about 2 years ago Tiny Brendan Scolari 29 comments 4 recs

Niners Nation What's your ideal Niners draft?

Hey folks. We've had lots of posts about the draft, debating players and picks and so forth, but I don't believe we've had a post where we list what our ideal draft is. That means throw out what the front office is looking for, who you think the Niners want, or any pessimistic picks. This post is for the Niners draft that you want, or in other words which picks would leave you happiest on draft day.

Because this is supposed to be an optimistic outlook on the draft you can have some scenarios that maybe aren't the most likely to happen, but try to keep things at least somewhat realistic. There's obviously no fixed rule, but in general if you don't think there's at least a 10-20% chance that a player is available at a certain pick then you should trade up if you want to get the player. A few examples would be say, don't have Suh fall out of the top few picks, don't have Berry fall to #17 (I personally think there's an outside shot he falls to #13 so I'd be okay with that, but use your best judgement), don't have someone like Joe Haden fall to the second round, and don't have someone like Dexter McCluster or or Toby Gerhart fall to the fifth round. No one will ban you (I don't think) if you are too optimistic but it's more fun if we at least stick to scenarios that have a small chance of happening. The only other thing is try to have at least a sentence or two included for each pick so that people know why you want those players, but otherwise you can do whatever you want (Trades are acceptable, even for players currently in the NFL. But again, stick to guys that actually have a chance of being traded and be realistic about it). So without further ado, here's my ideal draft scenario:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1st round, #13 overall - Brian Bulaga, OT, Iowa: The odds are not great that Bulaga lasts this long but I think it's more likely than some people think. I firmly believe that Detroit will pick one of the top 2 defensive tackles with the #2 overall pick, and there are only 4 other teams that pick in the top 12 that could pick a tackle: Washington, Seattle, Oakland, and Buffalo. Washington could go with Jimmy Clausen, but even if they don't they'd probably take Russell Okung over Bulaga. I see Seattle picking a tackle later (Charles Brown anyone?) and going with Derrick Morgan, Eric Berry or Geral MocCoy at #6, which only leaves the Bills and the Raiders. I recently heard that the Bills really liked Trent Williams, and we all know that Oakland must love Bruce Campbell. So, there's at least a decent chance that Bulaga falls, and I think he could immediately step in and be a top right tackle (or even a left tackle). If the Niners were to add Bulaga and get some better play out of their guards they'd have the makings of an elite line. The only way I'd consider passing on Bulaga is if Eric Berry is available or they get offered a great deal in a trade.

TRADE #17th overall pick and 6th round pick (#182 overall) to the Eagles for the #24 and #71 overall picks: I make this trade because I don't believe there's a player with great value at #17 and I want to pick up some extra picks in a deep draft. The Eagles come ahead about 10-15 points in the trade value chart, but I decided to be conservative because it is always harder to trade down. While picking any one team for a trade partner may not be very realistic in ta mock draft, the team is not really important, any team with a late first or early second round pick will do, just adjust the lower pick accordingly (in other words, if you get the #32 pick instead of the #24 pick then the other pick you receive in return should be in the #50-60 range instead of #71 overall.

1st round, #24 overall - Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State: From everything I've seen and heard Wilson looks like a great all round corner and he's also a good return man, which is a priority for the Niners. He's an aggressive player who will try to stop the run, which the Niners like in a corner. I also think he's a better value than Joe Haden, considering the 3rd round pick the Niners got earlier in the mock to trade down. Overall, he fits the Niners needs very well, is a player I think Singletary would like, and is good value here.

2nd round, #49 overall - Demaryious Thomas, WR, Georgia Tech: My good buddy Drew K thinks there's a decent chance Thomas lasts until the 3rd round, but I think he'll go quite a bit earlier than that. He's got the highest ceiling of any WR in the draft, and NFL GM's tend to be unable to let guys like that pass them guy. It'd be quite exciting if the Niners picked Thomas, if he could reach his potential the Niners could have the best group of skill position players in the NFL with Thomas, Crabtree, Davis, Gore, Morgan, Coffee, and (as you'll see later) Gerhart.

3rd round, #71 overall - Cam Thomas, NT, North Carolina: Thomas is a beast at 6-4 and 330 lbs., and will be the handpicked successor to Aubrayo Franklin. I imagine Franklin won't be around too much longer because of his age and price tag, but snagging Thomas allows the Niners a year or two to develop a talented player to keep them from having a huge hole at perhaps the most important position on a 3-4 defense. Thomas could go in the second round so this is a bit optimistic but he is a steal here.

3rd round, #79 overall - Toby Gerhart, RB, Stanford: Being a Bay Area local I saw a lot of Gerhart so I may be a bit biased, but I really think he can succeed in the NFL. Now I'm not saying he'll be a star or anything, but I do think he could eventually be a starter. RB is one of the positions the Niners need the least but I believe Gerhart will be one of the best players available if he lasts this long and will give the Niners another good option to fill in for Gore and keep him fresh for later in the season and a be a potential starter down the road.

4th round, #113 overall - John Jerry, OG, Ole Miss: Jerry is a mauling offensive lineman had enough athleticism to play tackle in college, although he'll play guard in the NFL. He could replace David Baas in the near future and his potential along with the rest of the Niner's young offensive line could turn the team's biggest weakness into a huge strength.

5th round, #145 overall - Myron Lewis, CB/S, Vanderbilt: The Niners have used quite a few picks on safeties the last three years, selecting Goldson, Reggie Smith, and Curtis Taylor. But none of them have impressed, so they use another pick on a safety here to see if anything sticks. I debated using this pick on TJ Ward or Myron Rolle, but Rolle's ability to play corner as well as safety signifies to me that he's a better cover guy than Ward or Rolle. The Niners' biggest problem at safety has been having no one who can play deep and Lewis could potentially fill that role.

6th round, #182 overall - TRADED to the Eagles along with the #17 overall pick for the #24 and #71 overall picks

6th round (compensatory), 206 overall - Trindon Holliday, RS, LSU: Kyle Wilson was drafted earlier and he can return kicks but Holliday is more electric and will also ensure there will be no more Delanie Walker as kick returner. If Wilson is in the starting lineup the Niners might like to keep him off of returns anyways. I wanted to go with QB Sean Canfield out of Oregon State, a personal favorite, but I figure he has little to no chance to make the roster with three quarterbacks already present.

7th round, #224 overall - Walter Thurmond, CB, Oregon: This was going to be a fullback before I got the idea to take Thurmond. Thurmond is an underrated corner who doesn't have great physical attributes and was hurt this year but would have a good chance of making the roster as the fifth or sixth corner.

So that's my ideal draft, what's yours?

301 comments  |  3 recs | 

Just a link to a post made several weeks ago by BigBlueShoe that now looks pretty comical. A few of the gems:

"Jason really is the model for independent bloggers... However, despite Jason really showing all of us how to do it right when it comes to sports blogging, the guy does not know jack-friggin-squat about NFL football.

Did I mention Jason is a Jets fan? I think that fact alone explains his attitude and knowledge about football.

Anyway, the reason I'm raggin' on Jason by bringing up his (lack of) football knowledge is that once again he is getting all self-important when talking about the NFL. And, like with his "bold" predictions last year, Jason is wrong.

Now, with Kerry Collins benched and Vince Young is back as the starter, Jason somehow thinks the time is now for Vince to prove he can play in this league. Thing is, most of us AFC South fans already know Vince cannot play in this league. Jeff Fisher knows Vince can't play in this league. That's why he resisted Adam's "order" to start Vince. The woeful body of work Vince has compiled over the last three years more than tells the story of this over-rated, pampered brat who never should have been drafted by the Titans in the first place."

"And if anyone out there still thinks that Vince can somehow salvage his career by playing well over these next few games, those people are suckers."

"Vince Young's career in Tennessee is over. Everyone knows it. Everyone also knows that Vince Young's football career is likely over. He is simply not a motivated guy looking to improve himself as a player. We're in year four and Vince still can't read a defense, and a QB who can't read a defense is like a running back with no feet."

"The simple truth is nothing Vince Young does over these next three games should change anyone's assessment of him. If it does, then I have some junk bonds I'd like to sell them real cheap, if they are interested."

So we've got a post filled with rude insults and unsupported statements, most of which now look hilariously wrong on top of that. Nice job mate, you're really showing the traditional media how it's done.

over 2 years ago Tiny Brendan Scolari 14 comments

A thorough review of the Niners defense by James Izzard at Pro Football Focus.

over 2 years ago Tiny Brendan Scolari 6 comments

If you watched the whole MNF game, well you watched what had to be the worst game of the season, but man it was hard to take my eyes off the trainwreck that is the Browns offense.

If you take out the last 10 yard lateral pass play (because it's more fun that way) the Browns ran 60 plays and had 150 yards of offense. That's 2.5 yards per play. But wait, it gets worse.

Not counting the last play, Brady Quinn went 12/30 for 89 yards, with no TD's, 2 INT's, and a fumble. That would be about 3 yards per play until you remember that he also got sacked 4 times for a combined loss of 2 yards. So on 34 drop backs the Browns gained a net total of 64 yards. That comes out to 1.88 yards per pass play. For comparison, the Pats average 8.3 yards per pass play against the Colts, nearly 4 times the yards per play. You show 'em Brady.

The crazy thing is I'm not sure a full-time Wildcat with Josh Cribbs wouldn't be more effective. At the very least i would be more interesting. Or heck, jut go all out and line up in a punt formation on every play and just tell Cribbs to run for his life. They'd probably score more than 5 touchdowns every 15 games.

over 2 years ago Tiny Brendan Scolari 3 comments

Hello Field Gullers, this fanpost is addressing what John wrote in the Thursday Night Football post.

John said that the Niners should have stuck with Shaun Hill over Alex Smith, which I find pretty curious as I think (and most Niner fans do as well) that it seems pretty obvious that Smith should be the starter the rest of the year. He has looked better than Hill, his DVOA as better (at least before yesterday's game, but it's probably still a fair amount higher), and he's only 25 so he still has a chance of getting better.

Anyway, I just wanted to hear why John (or anyone else for that matter) thinks Hill would be a better choice than Smith, because I don't really see much evidence that he would be. I'd have posted this in one of the posts already up but I got momentarily banned for going off topic once before and I don't think anyone will check back in the original game thread so, here it is.

over 2 years ago Tiny Brendan Scolari 10 comments

According to Ed Price of AOL Fanhouse, the Angles have re-signed outfielder Bobby Abreu to a two year, $19 million contract with a $9 million vesting option for 2012 (and a $1 million buyout). It seems like a fairly steep price for a 35 year old who doesn't play good defense or hit for power, but he is still great at getting on-base. I think it's a probably a pretty safe deal for both sides but if the Angels had waited to see how the free-agent market shaped up they likely could have gotten Abreu for a cheaper price.

over 2 years ago Tiny Brendan Scolari 16 comments

Niners Nation Is Mike Singletary a "Bum"?

I for one was pretty impressed with the way the Niners played today. Obviously it's disappointing to not get the win, but I didn't expect the game to even be as close as it was. I was especially happy with the way the defense played, shutting down the Colts offense about as well as one could hope for. I think Mike Singletary and Greg Manusky deserve a lot of credit for that. But BIg Blue Shoe, the head writer for the SBNation Colts blog, apparently doesn't. Here's what he said about Singletary in his quick recap of the game:

One more thing: Mike Singletary is a bum. A total and complete bum of a coach. As Bob Lamey and Will Wolford noted during the Colts radio broadcast, the 49ers were doing their best New England Patriots impersonation by faking injuries in order to slow Indy's no-huddle offense. The radio announcers noted players were receiving signals from 49ers coaches to "go down" when the Colts tried to go hurry-up. It was disgusting. It was vomit-inducing.

It didn't work.

So, congrats Mike! Your team is 3-4. You've lost three in a row, and when the chips were down, you tried to cheat. Oh, and all those defensive changes you did this past week? Yeah, they didn't work either. Manning threw for 347 yards, completed 64% of his passes, and the Colts won. Utter and complete tool = Mike Singetary. 49ers fans deserve better than this dirty schmuck. I hope they don't think my disgust at Singletary is disgust for the 49ers. Nothing but respect for the 49ers as an organization, and I love the community at Niners Nation. But Singletary's coaching today was both vile and un-becoming an NFL coach.

The Colts are 7-0, sans attempts to cheat, and did so in a scrappy, hard fought game. Go Colts!

I was pretty shocked when i originally read this as I didn't think there was anything to the injuries when I watched the game other than that our players were getting banged up. I admittedly wasn't thinking about the injuries too much but it just doesn't seem like something Mike Singletary would do and there weren't too many injuries anyway. I'll be watching this closely when I re-watch the game but I wanted to know what you guys think.

Were the Niners cheating and trying to keep the Colts from running their hurry up? Or were the injuries just part of the game? As I said in the thread on Stampede Blue the Niners use defensive hand signals normally anyway so I have a hard time believing the Colts radio guys could seperate those from the "dirty signals". Beyond that is what BBS said about Singletary fair? I really don't think it is, given the lack of proof of the cheating.

I'm hoping someone can clear this up because these are very harsh words about a claim that I don't think there is a lot of proof for.

Poll
Did the Niners fake injuries to disrupt the Colts hurry-up offense?
Yes
47 votes
No
91 votes
Not sure
38 votes

176 votes | Poll has closed

107 comments  | 

20091019_dodgers_phillies_0_score

The truth, the whole truth, and nothing, absolutely nothing, but the truth. From 82.2% to 0% on one swing. So help us God... please. From Fangraphs.

over 2 years ago Tiny Brendan Scolari 2 comments

Niners Nation My Mock Draft

Like I'm sure many other people here at NN, I'm sort of a draft buff, I like following all of the college prospects and reading mock drafts and all that good stff.. So a bunch people on fellow SBNation blog Mocking The Draft (a great blog by the way) have made their own mock drafts in fanposts. I decided to follow suit and make my own, and what I had hoped would be a 1 hour project quickly turned into 5 or 6 hours. Anyway, my mammoth (at least relative to what I intended to create) mock draft is done and I wanted to share it with you guys. Feel free to tell me what you think. (Note: I'm not a big fan of Trent Williams but I think he's a realistic pick with the Niners second first rounder.):

(Here is the link to the original fanpost at Mocking the Draft.)

 

Alright, here's my first mock draft for the 2010 NFL Draft. I've only ever done one mock draft before and it was the day before the 2009 NFL Draft so try to go easy on me! Seriously though, all constructive criticism is welcome. I'm using EPSN's Week 6 Power Rankings. It would probably be smarter to wait until the Week 7 Rankings come out but I've got some free time now so these will have to do.

Please don't complain about where your team is ranked, it's really all guesswork at this point anyway. Also, any statements made in the mock are only my opinion. When is say Ndamukong Suh is the best player in the country that's just my opinion, obviously you don't have to agree. I'm just trying to save time instead of littering the whole thing with "I think" and "In my opinion" and stuff like that. The only other thing is that I'm going to try to be a bit creative with some picks, there's still a lot of football left and some preseason warriors (see Fili Moala) always end up falling and vice versa. Here it goes:

1. Rams - Jimmy Clausen QB: At this point he looks like the best pro prospect of all the QB's. He's got good arm strength, good intermediate accuracy, some scrambling ability, and plays in a pro-style offense. He's a great fit for the Rams because Marc Bulger is done. Clausen would become the face of the Rams franchise and would be a big help in leading them out of their prolonged offensive futility over the last several years.

2. Buccaneers - Ndamukong Suh DT: He's the best player in the country and the Bucs need a defensive tackle badly. This is a perfect fit.

3. Chiefs - Brian Bulaga OT: KC is desperate for some O-line help to protect Cassel so they pick the best offensive lineman in this year's draft. Bulaga will allow Brandon Albert to slide to guard or right tackle where he is a better fit. If Bulaga doesn't declare for the draft then KC could turn to Russell Okung or Eric Berry.

4. Raiders - Carlos Dunlap: Crazy Al would probably go with Mays but the Raiders are pretty solid at safety. Instead he goes for another great physical speciman with questions about his potential. Dunlap is a reach here but since when has Al Davis cared about what anyone else thinks?

5. Browns - Jake Locker: Mangini clearly doesn't like Brady Quinn so he elects to draft a QB early to get his own guy to groom. The Browns could go a bunch of different directions here but you don't pass up a franchise QB if you don't already have one.

6. Titans - Joe Haden CB: Maybe a bit of a reach here but Haden is one heck of a player and corners are always a valuable a commodity. Gerald McCoy seems like a great fit to replace Haynesworth but the run defense has been fine, it's the pass defense that has been just dreadful (Nick Harper's corpse should not be a starting cornerback, who knew?).

7. Lions - Gerald McCoy DT: The Lions are tempted to select Russell Okung to protect Stafford's blindside but ultimately cannot pass up the best player left on their board in McCoy. Jim Schwartz gets to salivate at the thought of having a Haynesworth-type player with him in Detroit.

8. Bills - Russell Okung OT: The Bills are glad Okung lasted this long because their offensive line is a disaster.  Trent Edwards is probably not the answer at quarterback but the Bills will give him one more shot, this time hopefully with a competent line.

9. Redskins - Sam Bradford QB: Sam Bradford does not deserve to go this high anymore, but Dan Snyder hates Jason Campbell and wants a fresh face of the franchise. Bradford is a big name and Snyder likes to be in the headlines. This also ensures Bradford gets at least a portion of the money he would have received had he come out in 2009, so everyone is happy. That is, until Bradford sees the protection he'll be getting from the 'Skins offensive line. Ouch.

10. 49ers (From Carolina) - Eric Berry S: Berry is a great player but plays safety and therefore will have trouble getting into the top 5. That said, the Niners are glad to have him here as they don't have a ton of talent at the safety position and Berry will be a huge boon to the pass defense. The Niners would like to go with an offensive lineman here but there's just no one worth taking.

11. Texans - Patrick Robinson CB: The Texans defense as a whole is abysmal and the secondary is as much to blame as anyone. Robinson has all the skills neccessary to be a very good cover corner and is a good fit for the Texans.

12. Jaguars - Taylor Mays S: Yes, picking Tim Tebow would get the Jaguars more media attention. But if they're trying desperately to sell more tickets, picking a guy who will sit on the sidelines for two years won't help. Mays can make an instant impact in the Jags defense and is a flashy player to boot, meaning he'll create some excitement on his own.

13. Seahawks - Derrick Morgan DE: The Hawks biggest needs are offensive tackle and finding an heir to Matt Hasselback but there's no such players available here. Therefore they go with the 6'4" 270 lb. Morgan to help their pass rush. They have quite a few capable defensive ends on the roster but Patrick Kerney is aging and Darryl Tapp and Cory Redding are pending free agents, leaving only '08 first rounder Lawrence Jackson as a dependable pass rusher. With Morgan, Jackson, Brandon Mebane, Aaron Curry, Lofa Tatupu, and Leroy Hill the Hawks would have one of the best (and youngest) front sevens in the game.

14. Cardinals - Sergio Kindle OLB: The Cardinals have a pretty good run defense but the pass defense leaves something to be desired. Primary pass rushers Clark Haggans, Chike Okeafer, and Bertrand Berry are all at least 32 years old. The Cards did draft OLB Cody Brown in the 2nd round last year but Kindle is flat out better than Brown and both of them will soon be needed anyway.

15. Miami - Terrance Cody NT: Current starting nose tackle Jason Ferguson is old and his skills are declining so the 'Fins draft Cody to be his long term replacement. Bill Parcells loves to draft front-seven players and Cody will help make Miami's 3-4 a strong unit while Chad Henne develops.

16. Cowboys - Dez Bryant WR: The Cowboys have some talented wide receivers but Jerry Jones just can't stand to pass up a playmaker as talented as Dez Bryant. Jones obviously values receivers highly after giving Terrell Owens a big extension and trading 1st and 3rd rounders for Roy Williams. He will want to give Tony Romo another playmaker to replace the lost Terrell Owens once the Cowboys fall short of the playoffs. Offensive line and inside linebacker are probably more pressing needs.

17. Chargers - Sean Witherspoon ILB: The Chargers cannot stop the run... at all. They wanted to go with Terrance Cody to replace Jamal Williams but he isn't available so they look elsewhere to fix their atrocious run defense. There aren't any nose tackles worthy of this spot but Sean Witherspoon is a steal here. Witherspoon plays OLB at Missouri but would move inside in a 3-4 and could wind up being a speedy playmaker ala Patrick Willis. Stephen Cooper turned 30 this year and he is the only Chargers ILB of note so Witherspoon can potentially be an immediate upgrade to the defense, which is important because the Chargers window to contend is still wide open for the next couple years.

18. 49ers - Trent Williams OT: Trent Williams is a bit of a reach here, he's got a big name but hasn't lived up to the hype. That said, he is a very impressive run blocker and can use his strength to be an adequate right tackle in pass protection. It would be a mistake to put him at left tackle but the Niners don't need to do that because they already have Joe Staley locked up to a long term deal. Williams' style fits Mike Singletary's run-first philosophy and should combine with Staley to form a nice pair of bookends for the forseeable future.

19. Packers - Charles Brown OT: The Packers have very good skill position players on offense but they can't protect Aaron Rodgers. Brown is a possible long term replacement for Chad Clifton at left tackle and should help keep Rodgers upright. Tackle is easily the Packers biggest need but they could also look to help strengthen their new 3-4 defense, particularly at defensive end and in the secondary.

20. Steelers - C.J. Spiller RB: Running back isn't the Steelers most pressing need but they like to have a nice stable of running backs and Spiller is a nice complement to Rashard Mendenhall. Spiller is an electric playmaker and would play a Felix Jones type role in Pittsburgh.

21 Broncos (From Chicago) - Arthur Jones DT: The Broncos surprised nearly everyone this year, particularly with their amazing defensive turnaround. That said their defensive line still needs some work and Arthur Jones could be a big piece of the puzzle. The 6'4" 293 lb. Jones could play as a five-technique defensive end in the Broncos 3-4 defense and wreak havoc on opposing backfields.

22. Ravens - Jermaine Gresham TE: Todd Heap will be 30 soon after the 2009 season and his production has fallen in recent years. The Ravens are one of the smartest teams when it comes to drafting and they will pounce on a top-10 talent like Gresham who happens to fall because of his injury (similar to how they traded up for Michael Oher when he fell).

23. Patriots - Brandon Lafell WR: The Patriots could go a few different directions here, perhaps adding a running back or a pass rusher, but instead they decide to go with Brandon Lafell, a big, athletic wide receiver. Randy Moss isn't the player he used to be and while Wes Welker is a terrific player he is not a #1 wideout. Lafell can be that guy in time and will have a chance to develop slowly with the Pats.

24. Jets - Vince Oghobaase DE: The Jets' defense is excellent but they still have problems defending the run. The blame likely lies mostly on defensive ends Shaun Ellis and Marques Douglas, who are not ideal starters at this point in their careers. If the Jets don't take a defensive end they may look for a pass rusher because Vernon Gholston continues to disappoint.

25. Falcons - Greg Hardy DE: The Falcons have a potentially great offense led by Matt Ryan but they still need lots of help on the defensive side of the ball. John Abraham is a phenomenal pass rusher but the Falcons don't have anyone across from him to scare opposing offenses. Hardy could change that as he has as much potential as any edge rusher in the draft.

26. Eagles - Rolando McClain LB: McClain is a great fit with the Eagles, who are desperate enough at the linebacker position that they brought Jeremiah Trotter out of retirement after he had been out of football for a year and a half. They lost Stewart Bradley for the year, but even with him their linebacking core needs an influx of talent. McClain is a versitale playmaker and is a steal at this point in the draft.

27. Bengals - Trevard Lindley CB: The Bengals have good corners in Jonathan Joseph and Leon Hall but both are nearing free agency and it never hurts to have corner depth anyway. Lindley is one of the best players available at this point in the draft and had a chance to develop into a very good starting corner.

28. Seahawks (From Broncos) - Selvish Capers OT: The Seahawks need a replacement for Walter Jones who has been a franchise cornerstone for the last decade. The athletic Capers will never be as good as Jones was but he is a great fit for Seattle's zone blocking scheme and could contribute immediately. There are murmers for Tim Tebow here but his elongated release would prevent him from having success in the Hawks' West Coast Offense.

29. Saints - Demarcus Granger DT: The Saints defense has been shockingly good this year under defensive coordinator Gregg Williams. They already have one young stud defensive tackle in Sedrick Ellis but paired with DeMarcus Granger the two would form a terrific duo. Granger is a penetrator who can help defend both the run and the pass.

30. Vikings - Tim Tebow QB: Brett Farve trots his old bones out there for another year after leading the Vikings to the NFC Championship Game, letting the Vikings draft Tebow and let him sit on the bench and develop for at least a year. Tebow has too many flaws to be worth a first round pick but Brad Childress thought Tavaris Jackson was worth a second round pick, so why expect him to judge a QB's worth accurately now?

31. Giants - Brandon Spikes MLB: The Giants have a stacked roster and don't really have any pressing needs so they are free to go with the best player available, which is Spikes. Antonio Pierce is declining though so Spikes could end up starting at MLB for the Giants in the near future.

32. Colts - Nate Solder OT: The Colts only real need right now is at the tackle position, and Solder is a converted tight end with quick feet and good footwork, a great fit for the Colts scheme. They could go with a pass rusher here like Corey Wooton for depth behind Freeney and Mathis, but instead use their pick to try to upgrade the line.

Players picked just outside the first round (in no particular order): Jonathan Dwyer, Jahvid Best, Arrelious Benn, Adam Utalowski, Damian Williams, Eric Norwood, Corey Wooton, Marvin Austin, Ras-I Dowling, Everson Griffen, Jerry Hughes, Mike Iupati, Ricky Sapp.

106 comments  | 

Mocking The Draft My First Mock

Alright, here's my first mock draft for the 2010 NFL Draft. I've only ever done one mock draft before and it was the day before the 2009 NFL Draft so try to go easy on me! Seriously though, all constructive criticism is welcome. I'm using EPSN's Week 6 Power Rankings. It would probably be smarter to wait until the Week 7 Rankings come out but I've got some free time now so these will have to do.

Please don't complain about where your team is ranked, it's really all guesswork at this point anyway. Also, any statements made in the mock are only my opinion. When is say Ndamukong Suh is the best player in the country that's just my opinion, obviously you don't have to agree. I'm just trying to save time instead of littering the whole thing with "I think" and "In my opinion" and stuff like that. The only other thing is that I'm going to try to be a bit creative with some picks, there's still a lot of football left and some preseason warriors (see Fili Moala) always end up falling and vice versa. Here it goes:

1. Rams - Jimmy Clausen QB: At this point he looks like the best pro prospect of all the QB's. He's got good arm strength, good intermediate accuracy, some scrambling ability, and plays in a pro-style offense. He's a great fit for the Rams because Marc Bulger is done. Clausen would become the face of the Rams franchise and would be a big help in leading them out of their prolonged offensive futility over the last several years.

2. Buccaneers - Ndamukong Suh DT: He's the best player in the country and the Bucs need a defensive tackle badly. This is a perfect fit.

3. Chiefs - Brian Bulaga OT: KC is desperate for some O-line help to protect Cassel so they pick the best offensive lineman in this year's draft. Bulaga will allow Brandon Albert to slide to guard or right tackle where he is a better fit. If Bulaga doesn't declare for the draft then KC could turn to Russell Okung or Eric Berry.

4. Raiders - Carlos Dunlap: Crazy Al would probably go with Mays but the Raiders are pretty solid at safety. Instead he goes for another great physical speciman with questions about his potential. Dunlap is a reach here but since when has Al Davis cared about what anyone else thinks?

5. Browns - Jake Locker: Mangini clearly doesn't like Brady Quinn so he elects to draft a QB early to get his own guy to groom. The Browns could go a bunch of different directions here but you don't pass up a franchise QB if you don't already have one.

6. Titans - Joe Haden CB: Maybe a bit of a reach here but Haden is one heck of a player and corners are always a valuable a commodity. Gerald McCoy seems like a great fit to replace Haynesworth but the run defense has been fine, it's the pass defense that has been just dreadful (Nick Harper's corpse should not be a starting cornerback, who knew?).

7. Lions - Gerald McCoy DT: The Lions are tempted to select Russell Okung to protect Stafford's blindside but ultimately cannot pass up the best player left on their board in McCoy. Jim Schwartz gets to salivate at the thought of having a Haynesworth-type player with him in Detroit.

8. Bills - Russell Okung OT: The Bills are glad Okung lasted this long because their offensive line is a disaster.  Trent Edwards is probably not the answer at quarterback but the Bills will give him one more shot, this time hopefully with a competent line.

9. Redskins - Sam Bradford QB: Sam Bradford does not deserve to go this high anymore, but Dan Snyder hates Jason Campbell and wants a fresh face of the franchise. Bradford is a big name and Snyder likes to be in the headlines. This also ensures Bradford gets at least a portion of the money he would have received had he come out in 2009, so everyone is happy. That is, until Bradford sees the protection he'll be getting from the 'Skins offensive line. Ouch.

10. 49ers (From Carolina) - Eric Berry S: Berry is a great player but plays safety and therefore will have trouble getting into the top 5. That said, the Niners are glad to have him here as they don't have a ton of talent at the safety position and Berry will be a huge boon to the pass defense. The Niners would like to go with an offensive lineman here but there's just no one worth taking.

11. Texans - Patrick Robinson CB: The Texans defense as a whole is abysmal and the secondary is as much to blame as anyone. Robinson has all the skills neccessary to be a very good cover corner and is a good fit for the Texans.

12. Jaguars - Taylor Mays S: Yes, picking Tim Tebow would get the Jaguars more media attention. But if they're trying desperately to sell more tickets, picking a guy who will sit on the sidelines for two years won't help. Mays can make an instant impact in the Jags defense and is a flashy player to boot, meaning he'll create some excitement on his own.

13. Seahawks - Derrick Morgan DE: The Hawks biggest needs are offensive tackle and finding an heir to Matt Hasselback but there's no such players available here. Therefore they go with the 6'4" 270 lb. Morgan to help their pass rush. They have quite a few capable defensive ends on the roster but Patrick Kerney is aging and Darryl Tapp and Cory Redding are pending free agents, leaving only '08 first rounder Lawrence Jackson as a dependable pass rusher. With Morgan, Jackson, Brandon Mebane, Aaron Curry, Lofa Tatupu, and Leroy Hill the Hawks would have one of the best (and youngest) front sevens in the game.

14. Cardinals - Sergio Kindle OLB: The Cardinals have a pretty good run defense but the pass defense leaves something to be desired. Primary pass rushers Clark Haggans, Chike Okeafer, and Bertrand Berry are all at least 32 years old. The Cards did draft OLB Cody Brown in the 2nd round last year but Kindle is flat out better than Brown and both of them will soon be needed anyway.

15. Miami - Terrance Cody NT: Current starting nose tackle Jason Ferguson is old and his skills are declining so the 'Fins draft Cody to be his long term replacement. Bill Parcells loves to draft front-seven players and Cody will help make Miami's 3-4 a strong unit while Chad Henne develops.

16. Cowboys - Dez Bryant WR: The Cowboys have some talented wide receivers but Jerry Jones just can't stand to pass up a playmaker as talented as Dez Bryant. Jones obviously values receivers highly after giving Terrell Owens a big extension and trading 1st and 3rd rounders for Roy Williams. He will want to give Tony Romo another playmaker to replace the lost Terrell Owens once the Cowboys fall short of the playoffs. Offensive line and inside linebacker are probably more pressing needs.

17. Chargers - Sean Witherspoon ILB: The Chargers cannot stop the run... at all. They wanted to go with Terrance Cody to replace Jamal Williams but he isn't available so they look elsewhere to fix their atrocious run defense. There aren't any nose tackles worthy of this spot but Sean Witherspoon is a steal here. Witherspoon plays OLB at Missouri but would move inside in a 3-4 and could wind up being a speedy playmaker ala Patrick Willis. Stephen Cooper turned 30 this year and he is the only Chargers ILB of note so Witherspoon can potentially be an immediate upgrade to the defense, which is important because the Chargers window to contend is still wide open for the next couple years.

18. 49ers - Trent Williams OT: Trent Williams is a bit of a reach here, he's got a big name but hasn't lived up to the hype. That said, he is a very impressive run blocker and can use his strength to be an adequate right tackle in pass protection. It would be a mistake to put him at left tackle but the Niners don't need to do that because they already have Joe Staley locked up to a long term deal. Williams' style fits Mike Singletary's run-first philosophy and should combine with Staley to form a nice pair of bookends for the forseeable future.

19. Packers - Charles Brown OT: The Packers have very good skill position players on offense but they can't protect Aaron Rodgers. Brown is a possible long term replacement for Chad Clifton at left tackle and should help keep Rodgers upright. Tackle is easily the Packers biggest need but they could also look to help strengthen their new 3-4 defense, particularly at defensive end and in the secondary.

20. Steelers - C.J. Spiller RB: Running back isn't the Steelers most pressing need but they like to have a nice stable of running backs and Spiller is a nice complement to Rashard Mendenhall. Spiller is an electric playmaker and would play a Felix Jones type role in Pittsburgh.

21 Broncos (From Chicago) - Arthur Jones DT: The Broncos surprised nearly everyone this year, particularly with their amazing defensive turnaround. That said their defensive line still needs some work and Arthur Jones could be a big piece of the puzzle. The 6'4" 293 lb. Jones could play as a five-technique defensive end in the Broncos 3-4 defense and wreak havoc on opposing backfields.

22. Ravens - Jermaine Gresham TE: Todd Heap will be 30 soon after the 2009 season and his production has fallen in recent years. The Ravens are one of the smartest teams when it comes to drafting and they will pounce on a top-10 talent like Gresham who happens to fall because of his injury (similar to how they traded up for Michael Oher when he fell).

23. Patriots - Brandon Lafell WR: The Patriots could go a few different directions here, perhaps adding a running back or a pass rusher, but instead they decide to go with Brandon Lafell, a big, athletic wide receiver. Randy Moss isn't the player he used to be and while Wes Welker is a terrific player he is not a #1 wideout. Lafell can be that guy in time and will have a chance to develop slowly with the Pats.

24. Jets - Vince Oghobaase DE: The Jets' defense is excellent but they still have problems defending the run. The blame likely lies mostly on defensive ends Shaun Ellis and Marques Douglas, who are not ideal starters at this point in their careers. If the Jets don't take a defensive end they may look for a pass rusher because Vernon Gholston continues to disappoint.

25. Falcons - Greg Hardy DE: The Falcons have a potentially great offense led by Matt Ryan but they still need lots of help on the defensive side of the ball. John Abraham is a phenomenal pass rusher but the Falcons don't have anyone across from him to scare opposing offenses. Hardy could change that as he has as much potential as any edge rusher in the draft.

26. Eagles - Rolando McClain LB: McClain is a great fit with the Eagles, who are desperate enough at the linebacker position that they brought Jeremiah Trotter out of retirement after he had been out of football for a year and a half. They lost Stewart Bradley for the year, but even with him their linebacking core needs an influx of talent. McClain is a versitale playmaker and is a steal at this point in the draft.

27. Bengals - Trevard Lindley CB: The Bengals have good corners in Jonathan Joseph and Leon Hall but both are nearing free agency and it never hurts to have corner depth anyway. Lindley is one of the best players available at this point in the draft and had a chance to develop into a very good starting corner.

28. Seahawks (From Broncos) - Selvish Capers OT: The Seahawks need a replacement for Walter Jones who has been a franchise cornerstone for the last decade. The athletic Capers will never be as good as Jones was but he is a great fit for Seattle's zone blocking scheme and could contribute immediately. There are murmers for Tim Tebow here but his elongated release would prevent him from having success in the Hawks' West Coast Offense.

29. Saints - Demarcus Granger DT: The Saints defense has been shockingly good this year under defensive coordinator Gregg Williams. They already have one young stud defensive tackle in Sedrick Ellis but paired with DeMarcus Granger the two would form a terrific duo. Granger is a penetrator who can help defend both the run and the pass.

30. Vikings - Tim Tebow QB: Brett Farve trots his old bones out there for another year after leading the Vikings to the NFC Championship Game, letting the Vikings draft Tebow and let him sit on the bench and develop for at least a year. Tebow has too many flaws to be worth a first round pick but Brad Childress thought Tavaris Jackson was worth a second round pick, so why expect him to judge a QB's worth accurately now?

31. Giants - Brandon Spikes MLB: The Giants have a stacked roster and don't really have any pressing needs so they are free to go with the best player available, which is Spikes. Antonio Pierce is declining though so Spikes could end up starting at MLB for the Giants in the near future.

32. Colts - Nate Solder OT: The Colts only real need right now is at the tackle position, and Solder is a converted tight end with quick feet and good footwork, a great fit for the Colts scheme. They could go with a pass rusher here like Corey Wooton for depth behind Freeney and Mathis, but instead use their pick to try to upgrade the line.

Players picked just outside the first round (in no particular order): Jonathan Dwyer, Jahvid Best, Arrelious Benn, Adam Utalowski, Damian Williams, Eric Norwood, Corey Wooton, Marvin Austin, Ras-I Dowling, Everson Griffen, Jerry Hughes, Mike Iupati, Ricky Sapp.

Poll
What do you think of my mock draft?
OMG. BEST. MOCK. EVER. Mocking Dan < Mocking Brendan (aka Mocking GOD)
4 votes
I love it! This is a miracle of modern mock-drafting!
3 votes
Pretty good. Don't get to cocky though, your still a mere mortal.
24 votes
Why did you waste so much time writing this?
3 votes
Ugh! Why did you make the [insert team name here] pick [insert "overrated" player that my team will never draft here]!
1 votes

35 votes | Poll has closed

34 comments  | 

20091016_phillies_dodgers_144609039_home

Nothing like a nice comeback to wash away the sorrow of a disappointing loss. The Dodgers win probability actually never got below 25% in yesterday's contest.

The biggest win probability swing in the Phillies favor was on Ryan Howard's homerun when their odds of winning jumped from 48.2% to 59.7%.

The Dodgers two biggest win probability shifts obviously came in the bottom of the 8th inning. They entered the inning witha 41.1% chance of winning, and got their odds up to 49.6% when Russell Martin came to the plate and reached on an error by Chase Utley which bumped their win expectancy to 61.0%. But the biggest jump came on Andre Ethier's bases loaded walk, the Dodgers win expectancy went from 63.5% to 87.4%. Those two at bats had a leverage indez above 5, meaning they were more than five times as important as an average at bat.

The MVP of the gam (per win probability) was easily Pedro Martinez, whose .450 win probability added was more than double the next closest player, Vicente Padilla with .207 WPA. Ethier (.157), Martin (.152), and Thome (.141) also made key contributions for the Dodgers. The Least Valuable Player was Matt Kemp, whose -.246 was more than twice as bad as any other Dodger. Of course 57% of his negative contribution came on his stikeout in the 8th inning, and whiffing against a guy with more than a strikeout per inning in 2009 is nothing to be ashamed of.

Finally, as Phil said in the recap below the Dodgers odds of winning the series are now 51.9%. That's not too bad all things considered.

over 2 years ago Tiny Brendan Scolari 3 comments

20091015_phillies_dodgers_144599474_home

Here's the win probability chart for Game 1 of the NLCS. There were some big shifts in this game, with the biggest being Carlos Ruiz's three run bomb that cut the Dodgers' odds of winning in half (from 50.7% to 25.2%).

Ryan Howard's double later in the inning that put the Phillies up 5-1 cut the Dodgers' odds in half again (from 25.2% to 11.2%). The Dodgers showed resiliency, raising their odds up to 46.5% after a 6th inning Ronnie Belliard single put runners on first and second with one out and the Dodgers down a run, but they were never again favored to win the game.

The Dodgers had some life until Raul Ibanez's three run blast cut their win expectancy from 17.4% to a mere 3.8%. The final blow was when Casey Blake grounded into a double play in the bottom of the 9th, cutting the Dodgers odds from 19.1% to 1.6%.

The most valuable player (using win probability) was Carlos Ruiz, who had .275 win probability added. He was closely followed by Chan Ho's .240 WPA, and the two most valuable Dodgers were James Loney (.193) and Andre Ethier (.176). Five other Phillies had at least .060 WPA but no other Dodgers did.

Ultimately the game could have gone either way. The Dodgers had more baserunners than the Phillies but the Phils happened to hit homeruns in the only innings where more than one of their batters reached base. It was a tough loss but there's no reason to lose hope.

over 2 years ago Tiny Brendan Scolari 24 comments

Fake Teams Portis and Manningham for Lenwhale and Driver?

Some guy in my league offered me Clinton Portis and Mario Manningham for Donald Driver and Lendale White. Is this a good trade?

For some perspective, my team is 5-0 so I'm sort of looking more to the playoffs than you usually would. This is a .5 PPR league with bonus points for 100 yards rushing/receiving and 150 yards rushing/receiving. Here's my team:

QB: Schaub, Big Ben

RB: Barber, Lynch, Moreno, Washington, Lenwhale, Jamaal Charles

WR: Calvin Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Roddy White, Donald Driver, Bobby Wade

TE: Jason Witten, Donald Lee

The only other thing is that this is a keeper contract league. Lendale White has a 2 year contract and all of the other guys involved have 1 year deals. So is it worth trading 2 years of Lenwhale and 1 year of Driver for 1 year of Portis and Manningham?

Poll
Would you trade Donald Driver and Lendale White for Clinton Portis and Mario Manningham?
Yes
10 votes
No
5 votes
Too Close to Call
1 votes

16 votes | Poll has closed

7 comments  | 

True Blue LA Joe Torre Doesn't Expect to Return to the Dodgers After 2010

 

Manager Joe Torre doesn't expect to return to the Dodgers after the 2010 season when his current contract runs out, according to an AP report on SI.com:

"I have one year on my contract and I don't anticipate it being more than that. [But] I've said that before and my wife doesn't believe me at all.

I never get tired of this stuff, that's one thing I found out. You think once you win it you say, 'Ok, I got it, I don't need to do this anymore,' but you do. You need to do it."

Torre has a 179-145 record managing the Dodgers and has led them to division titles in both seasons as the manager. The 69 year-old is in the second year of his three year deal that came after managing the Yankees for 12 seasons. Torre has the most postseason wins (83) of any manager in MLB history and is tied with Bobby Cox for the most postseason appearances (14).

GM Ned Colletti said yesterday that he will sit down with Torre and talk about his future after the season ends.

As for my own personal opinion, I think this would be a sad day for the Dodgers. As much as we like to criticize some (or most) of his moves, he is a class act and has been a great leader for the team as they grew into contenders.

15 comments  | 

MLB Daily Dish Joe Torre Doesn't Expect to Return to the Dodgers After 2010

Dodgers manager Joe Torre doesn't expect to return to the Dodgers after the 2010 season when his current contract runs out, according to an AP report on SI.com:

"I have one year on my contract and I don't anticipate it being more than that. [But] I've said that before and my wife doesn't believe me at all.

I never get tired of this stuff, that's one thing I found out. You think once you win it you say, 'Ok, I got it, I don't need to do this anymore,' but you do. You need to do it."

Torre has a 179-145 record managing the Dodgers and has led them to division titles in both seasons as the manager. The 69 year-old is in the second year of his three year deal that came after managing the Yankees for 12 seasons. Torre has the most postseason wins (83) of any manager in MLB history and is tied with Bobby Cox for the most postseason appearances (14).

Dodgers GM Ned Colletti said yesterday that he will sit down with Torre and talk about his future after the season ends.

0 comments  | 

MLB Daily Dish Giants Give Extensions to Bruce Bochy and Brian Sabean

According to an AP report courtesy of SI.com Giants manager Bruce Bochy and general manager Brian Sabean both received 2 year extensions through the 2011 season plus a club option for 2012. 

The Giants have not made the playoffs since 2003 but they did go 88-74 this year and narrowly missed a wildcard spot. Bochy and Sabean expect to build on their success this year and bring the Giants back to their winning ways of the past. Sabean is the longest tenured GM in baseball (he's been the Giants GM for 13 years) and Bochy has been the Giants' manager for the past 3 seasons. Both are readying themselves for a busy offseason where the Giants may try to add a big bat.

Giants managing general partner Bill Neukom had this to say:

"The job of the 2009 Giants was to return to winning baseball. The Giants had a winning season and then some. We are not complacent about that. We have more work to do because we want to get the San Francisco Giants to be a franchise that's a contender year in and year out.

If anyone deserves credit for this year's turnaround it's these two people, Brian and Bruce. The encouraging thing is we think we're back to playing baseball the way it ought to be played."

0 comments  | 

MLB Daily Dish A's Will Bring Back Entire Coaching Staff

According to a Yahoo! Sports report the Oakland A's will bring back their entire coaching staff next year in their same positions despite going 75-87, good for last place in the AL West. A's manager Bob Geren has been at the helm since the beginning of the 2007 season:

Pitching coach Curt Young will be back for a seventh season, with bullpen coach Ron Romanick returning for his third season. Tye Waller is back for his fourth season on the A’s coaching staff and his second consecutive season as the team’s bench coach.

Hitting coach Jim Skaalen, third base coach Mike Gallego and first base coach Todd Steverson all finished their first season in those roles.

2 comments  | 

20091008_cardinals_dodgers_0_score

And in case you haven't already seen it, the win probability chart for game 2 is worth a look.

The Dodgers lowest win probability in the game came with two outs and nobody down in the 9th inning with the Dodgers down 2-1 and James Loney at the plate. At that point they had merely a 4.1% chance of being the victors, but that's why they play the games!

Surprisingly the biggest swing in win probability didn't come on Mark Loretta's game-winning hit (although the jump from 65.2% to 100% is huge for one play). The biggest swing came earlier in the inning when Ronnie Belliard stroked the single to center to tie the score 2-2. Before the at bat the Dodgers had only a 15.9% chance of winning but after the single that number jumped to 60.5%.

Belliard also led the team with .363 win probability added but Loretta was right behind him with .348 WPA.

over 2 years ago Tiny Brendan Scolari 22 comments

20091007_cardinals_dodgers_0_score

The win probability chart for Game 1. The Dodgers lowest odds of winning the game came in the 1st inning when Ryan Ludwick singled home Skip Schumaker with the bases loaded and one out to put the Cardinals up 1-0. At that point the Dodgers only had a 30.4% chance of winning.

The play that swung the win probability the most was Matt Kemp's two-run homer in the bottom of the 1st inning that put the Dodgers up 2-1. The Dodgers win probability jumped from 47.3% to 65.4% on that one play alone.

Although believe it or not Jeff Weaver had the highest win probability added of any Dodger, .163. He pitched 1.1 innings but his main contribution came when he got the third out of the 4th inning with the bases loaded to keep the Dodgers up 3-1. Getting that out raised the Dodgers win probability by nearly 10%.

over 2 years ago Tiny Brendan Scolari 5 comments

MLB Daily Dish Red Sox and Mets Complete Billy Wagner Deal

According to a report from CBSSports.com the Red Sox and Mets have completed their deal that sent Billy Wagner to Boston. The Red Sox sent the Mets minor leaguers Chris Carter and Eddie Lora.

According to Bart Hubbuch of the New York Post the Mets thought they were going to get Carter in September but the Yankees claimed him off of waivers so they had to wait until after the season to complete the deal. Carter has since been added to the Mets 40 man roster. Carter, a 26 year old outfielder, hit .294/.358/.465 in 478 PA's with Triple-A Pawtucket this season.

Lora is a 20 year old switch hitting first baseman. Lora only played in 34 games this season (all for the Gulf Coast League Red Sox) and hit .222/.287/.414 in 108 PA's.

0 comments  | 

Niners Nation More Deion WR Shenanigans: Top Prospect Dez Bryant Declared Ineligible

Well, signing Michael Crabtree looks really good right now! For those of you who were hoping to select Oklahoma State WR Dez Bryant in the draft this year to fill the Niners need at WR (before Crabtree signed obviously), his stock just took a big hit.

Appparently Bryant visited Deion's house and worked out with him during the offseason and then lied to the NCAA about any of it happening. Bryant will now make an appeal to the NCAA and tell them the true story in hopes that they will reinstate him. From the story:

The NCAA interviewed Bryant before the season and also on Sept. 11, the day before a game against Houston, asking if he had visited Sanders' home, if he had worked out with Sanders and also if he had had any interaction with agents.

Bryant told them no to all questions. Bryant is expected to say that he wasn't sure if it was a violation to visit with Sanders. Bryant has been told he has been suspended because he lied about the answers to the first two questions.

In a prepared statement, the school released the following comment from Bryant: "I made a mistake by not being entirely truthful when meeting with the NCAA. I sincerely regret my mistake and apologize to my teammates, coaches, OSU fans and the NCAA.

I'll just say I'm extremely happy that we finally got Crabtree on the team. Now we can look forward to seeing this at Candlestick:

Michael Crabtree Highlights (via mmhmm15)

36 comments  | 

If you didn't like Tony Romo before, you might like him now....

over 2 years ago Tiny Brendan Scolari 4 comments

MLB Traderumors has a pretty cool spreadsheet up with projected Elias rankings for all of this offseason's free agents.The projections are reverse-engineered by Eddie Bajek of Detroit Tigers Thoughts. Teams get compensatory picks in the next year's First Year Player Draft if they offer arbitration to Type A or Type B free agents and they subsequently sign with another team.

The Dodgers should have 3 Type A free agents this offseason in Manny Ramirez, Orlando Hudson, and Randy Wolf. Of course Manny would have to opt out of his contract and the Dodgers cannot offer him arbitration (because of a clause in his contract) anyways.

They should also have a plethora of Type B free agents, where Jon Garland, Vicente Padilla, Ronnie Belliard, Guillermo Mota, and Will Ohman all look likely to qualify. Jim Thome is also ranked just outside of Type B status. However, thit's questionable whether or not the Dodgers would offer arbitration to most of these players.

While there's still a lot to be decided in the offseason, it's possible if things pan out the right way that the Dodgers end up with quite a few compensatory picks in next year's draft.

over 2 years ago Tiny Brendan Scolari 26 comments

Fake Teams Leon Washington for Clinton Portis?

So one guy in my league is tired of Portis not producing and is wiling to trade him for what he can get. I offered Leon Washington and he said he'd probably accept, but I told him I wanted to look into Portis' injury situation a bit more.

So I feel like this is a good buy low opportunity, but I'm worried that I may be overvaluing Portis just because he is a big name. He has struggled mightily so far, is hurt, and the Skins are having all sorts of problems. On the other hand Leon has gotten a lot of touches on offense this year but hasn't gotten too much red zone work.

What do you think, is this a good trade or has Portis declined too much for it to be worth it? This is a .5 PPR league with 3 bonus points for 100 yards rushing or receiving, otherwise it's standard scoring.

Poll
Should I trade Leon Washington for Clinton Portis in a .5 PPR league?
Yes
5 votes
No
6 votes

11 votes | Poll has closed

10 comments  | 

True Blue LA Dodgers Can't Finish, Magic Number Still at One

The Dodgers let one slip through their fingers today when they fell 6-5 to the Pirates. Although runs were at a premium for much of the contest, the Dodgers broke a 2-2 tie in the 9th inning by scoring three runs off of Pirates reliever Matt Capps. However, Jonathan Broxton (with the help of his fielders) was unable to shut the door on the Pirates, allowing four runs and only recording one out to give the Pirates a 6-5 win.

Clayton Kershaw made his first start since injuring his shoulder and went 4 innings while allowing 2 runs on 4 hits, 1 walk, and 2 strikeouts. Both runs scored in the third inning on three hits, two singles and a double. The Dodgers scored previously in the inning when Rafael Furcal singled in Orlando Hudson, so the scored was 2-1 Pirates.

The score stayed that way until the 7th inning. James Loney led off with a single and Ronnie Belliard hit a double to put runners on second and third. After a strikeout and an intentional walk the bases were loaded with one out for Jim Thome. Thome grounded out to short which allowed Loney to score to tie the game at 2. Rafael Furcal then grounded out to end the inning.

In the 9th inning closer Matt Capps came on for the Pirates. He allowed three straight singles which put the Dodgers up 3-2 before Orlando Hudson layed down a sacrifice to move the runners to secnod and third. It is more than a bit questionable to give a free out to a struggling closer when you already have the lead. Manny Ramirez came on to pinch hit but was intentionally walked because there was an open base. Rafael Furcal then reached on a fielders choice to score the second run of the inning. After Juan Pierre lined out a passed ball let Russell Martin score to put the Dodgers up 5-2. Andre Ethier struck out and Jonathan Broxton came in for the bottom of the 9th.

Broton allowed two singles to start the inning to Delwyn Young and Brandon Moss. Andrew McCutchen then hit a double play ball to Furcal but he didn't play it cleanly and so the Dodgers only got one out. Andy Laroche then hit an infield single which Furcal threw away, allowing a run to score and the runners to move to second and third. Broxton intentionally walked Garrett Jones, bringing up Lastings Milledge with the bases loaded and the score 5-3. Milledge singled to right center field and Ethier misplayed and then overran the ball, allowing all three runners to score and giving the Pirates an improbable 6-5 win.

Here's the win probability chart for the game. On the passed ball that put the Dodgers up 5-2 their win probability was up to 96.5%:

290927123_dodgers_pirates_143550495_live_medium

via www.fangraphs.com

Tommorow is the finale of the four game set as the Dodgers try once again to clinch the NL West (their magic number is currently at 1). The Dodgers had the champagne ready but the loss meant the celebration has to wait at least one more day:

(The loss sent) clubhouse attendants into a mad scramble to clear out the party supplies for another time and, as it turned out after Colorado's win, another day.

 Hiroki Kuroda (8-6) will face off against Zack Duke (10-15) at 9:35 AM tommorow morning.

WP - Matt Capps (4-8): 1 IP, 3 hits, 3 runs (2 earned), 1 walk, 1 strikeout

LP - Jonathan Broxton (7-2): 0.1 IP, 4 hits, 4 runs (3 earned), 1 walk, 0 strikeouts
 

11 comments  |