Michael Salfino put it best when he said, "Steven Jackson owners [and Rams fans] should be ticked."  Find out why, and a stunning statistic on Steven Jackson, here.

Most Average Joes bet on sports like they choose a bottle of wine: the one with the most interesting name or the best colors on its packaging (or uniforms) is the lucky winner.  This is a pretty failsafe plan to end up with less money in your pocket or a bottle of glorified grape juice.  For those of you who look to get-rich-quick or something of the sort, I'm here to help you out.  Looking through the numbers, here are the most important statistics to look at:

1) Average Time of Possession

Rams: 5th in the league (32:03)

Falcons: 4th in the league (32:05)

This tells more about a team than one would think.  Every minute I possess the ball is a minute you don't.  Furthermore, it can generally indicate whether one is moving the ball or others are moving the ball.  Yet in this case the Rams and Falcons are pretty similar, likely for the same reasons: relatively balanced offenses.

2) Defense:

Falcons: 18 sacks, Turnover Ratio +9,  8th in Points Allowed, 17th in Yards Allowed (23rd in pass, 7th in rush)

Rams: 28 sacks, Turnover Ratio +3, 6th in Points Allowed, 12th in Yards Allowed (18th in pass, 6th in rush)

Rams matched up decently against Fitzgerald and Crabtree, haven't played a team with so many quality skills players as the Falcons but also have contained the run game pretty well.  Relatively healthy on defense except for Robbins.  

Falcons have been beaten largely through the air this year.  Have notable injuries at DE and LB.

3) Offense

Falcons: 8th in points, 8th in yards (12th in passing, 8th in rushing), average of 4 ypc, about a 48% 3rd down conversion rate, most of their first downs come via passing.

Rams: 30th in point, 25th in yards (24th in passing, 18th in rushing), average of 4.5 ypc, about a 38% 3rd down conversion rate, most of our first downs come via passing.

Rams have relied on Steven Jackson, and will have to throw to beat the Falcons, even with an injured defense.  Play-action should be called frequently, and the TEs will be crucial.  Even though the injuries to the line are disconcerting, we should be able to shift some guys around and put together a decent effort on the OL.

While Matt Ryan is a respectable player, the big threats to the Rams come in the form of Roddy White, Jason Snelling, and Michael Turner.  The problem is that even in cases where White has been held to under 100 yards, the Falcons have pounded the ball at their opponents on the ground.  Extremely balanced offense.

4) Records

The Falcons are 2-2 on the road, with losses of 6 and 14 points to PIT and PHI and wins of 3 and 10 point over NO and CLE.  Overall the Falcons are 7-2, with a blowout win over ARI and solid wins over other good teams such as TAM and BALT.

The Rams are 4-1 at home, with notable wins over SD, WAS, and SEA.  The sole home loss was the season opener against ARI.  Overall we are 4-5, with every loss except the game against DET a close game.

The Falcons have played considerably better teams, however, and they have furthermore beaten many of the team the Rams themselves have lost to.

5) Other things to note:

Rams are on a one win streak.  Falcons are on a three win streak.

Falcons play at home in a dome.

4:05 kickoff and travel to St. Louis shouldn't affect Falcons.

To give you some betting history from sportschatplace.com, St. Louis is 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games as an underdog, 5-1 against the spread in their last six games against the NFC, and 4-1 against the spread in theri last five against a team with a winning record. Atlanta is 4-1 against the spread in their last five games against a team with a losing record, 5-2 against the spread in their last seven road games, and 9-4 against the spread in their last 13 games overall. The favorite has covered six of the last seven meetings and the home team has covered five of the last six.    

Concluding thoughts:

To be honest, I am surprised the spread is 3.5 on most sites.  While the Rams have been close in most games, the Falcons are the real deal and our offense just cannot stretch the field enough to take advantage of the weaker Falcons defense.  This puts us at a huge disadvantage, as I think we will probably not break 20 points scored, lest the defense step up and keep us in the game from the start.  The Falcons WILL score points.  They have scored against vastly superior teams and statistically destroy us.  They simply have too many threats on offense and we have too few on offense.  I don't doubt our defense will get a turnover or two and a couple sacks, but the big plays are where we will get burned.  I'm going out on a limb here and predicting a 17-24 loss to the Falcons, thus no cover vs. the spread.  You win some, you lose some.  If we win this game, I will be truly surprised, as I consider the Falcons one of the top 3 teams in the NFC.  I think this is a dangerous bet nonetheless, as the hype of a team with a good record coming off a bye week always builds our conception of a team to new peaks, but at the same time, the Rams appear outmatched.

Five and one.  5-1.  5 and 1.  

However you say it, the Rams realistically could (and some argue should) possess such a record.  The Week 5 loss to the Lions was a legitimate beatdown characterized by a complete mental lapse and a lack of physical explosiveness in all facets of the game.  The other games?  Two losses by a combined six points against beatable teams. 

Sam Bradford is a likely candidate for Offensive Rookie of the Year, the defense has placed a surprising amount of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, the receivers aren't outstanding but are producing just enough, the offensive line is doing a decent job in both pass protection and run blocking, and Steven Jackson is still in one piece.  Even at 3-3, life is good.

Heading into Week 7, we are starting to get a solid sense of just how well our young gun at QB is playing.  This upcoming week, I expect the Rams to run the ball down the throats of Tampa Bay, with Jackson amassing over 100 yards for the third week in a row (I actually foresee him reaching near 200 total yards).  I think this is the week that we see Sam at his most efficient, with an extremely high passer rating and completion percentage.  At 3-2, Tampa Bay's losses have come to New Orleans and Pittsburgh, two very formidable teams.  They are by no means a bad team, and I think it will be a good game, but the Rams need efficiency, not stardom from Bradford this week.

Per usual, ignoring all the banter about statistics not reflecting the nature of the game or the performance of the player, let's look at Bradford's statistics through his first six games:

Week 1 : 30/55, 253 yards, 1TD, 3INT, 53.1 passer rating, 2 sacks

Week 2: 14/25, 167 yards, 2TD, 1INT, 86.6 passer rating, 3 sacks

Week 3: 23/37, 235 yards, 1TD, 1INT, 78.1 passer rating, 1 sack

Week 4: 23/41, 289 yards, 2TD, 1INT, 84.3 passer rating, 4 sacks

Week 5: 23/45, 251 yards, 0TD, 2INT, 46.1 passer rating, 1 sack

Week 6: 18/31, 198 yards, 1TD, 0INT, 87.8 passer rating, 3 sacks

Extrapolating his current statistical output out to a full season, Bradford theoretically would finish the season with 3,618 yards, 19TD, 21INT, a 69.3 passer rating, and a total of 37 sacks.

Now let's put this in context and establish what it really means in comparison to his current and recent competition:

1. The sack totals places him in a tie for the 4th most sacked QB this season.
2. Bradford is currently 13th in the league in passing yards.  
3. While he is currently tied for 15th in TD passes, Bradford is tied for the 2nd most INTs in the league right now with 8 interceptions.  The only quarterbacks who have thrown as many or more are Eli Manning (8) and Alex Smith (9).
4. Sam's passer rating took a large dip in Week 5 with a 46.1 rating, but he followed that performance up with his highest rated performance of the year with an 87.8 rating.  Now his rating is currently ranked 30th in the NFL, with only Jimmy Clausen, Derek Anderson, and Jason Campbell, two of whom are no longer starters, having lower ratings.

And now I end with my discaimer:

The cause of Bradford's statistical output may have nothing to do with his abilities and may more appropriately be attributed to line play, receiver talent (or lack thereof), game planning, adjustments to the running game, etc.  Furthermore, this small sample of play is not a good basis for judging Bradford's development.  What I mean by that is: it really means nothing at this point in the season...although we're getting there.  Nonetheless, some food for thought.

It's been a busy, busy time over here in D.C., the land of greasy Five Guys burgers and even greasier politicians.  Accordingly, I pushed this week's caption contest back until after the football week.  Can't promise I will always post on Tuesdays, so make sure to check out the main Turf Show Times page to get a head start on each week's contest!

Our winner for Week 4 of the contest is 3k!

The winning caption, which set a season high number of votes for the TST Caption Contest, can be found in the featured photo to the left.

For those of you just starting out, here are the basic rules to get going:

Continue reading this post »

It's time for another round of the TurfShowTimes caption contest!  Thanks to everyone for their submissions this week!

Our winner for Week 3 of the contest is mooseknuckles41!

The winning (albeit gross) caption can be found in the featured photo to the left.

For those of you just starting out, here are the basic rules to get going:

Continue reading this post »

Skies of fire.  Raining brimstone.  Flying pigs.  Hell freezing over.

In past years all of these would be about as likely to happen as the Rams pulling off a win at home.  Yet yesterday the Edward Jones Dome came alive for the first Rams home victory since 2008.  The defense and offense both made big plays and performed at a level the likes of which we hadn't seen since the days of an American-owned Anheuser-Busch.  We should temper our hopes: we are probably not winning this Super Bowl (although who knows about next season!).  Yet even though the injuries keep piling up, optimism should flow freely; the Rams have a bright future ahead of them.

Speaking of that bright future, much of it is hinged upon the development and performance of our rookie quarterback.  Until this week, Bradford was the only starting rookie quarterback in the league, even though at times he hasn't looked like your typical rookie passer.  He is now joined in the starting ranks by Jimmy Clausen, who had a rough start to his NFL career this past week.

Heading into Week 4, our Samchise QB looks to be kicking it up a notch, even in the face of heavy pressure.  Once again ignoring all the banter about statistics not reflecting the nature of the game or the performance of the player, let's look at Bradford's statistics through his first three games:

Continue reading this post »

It's time for another round of the TurfShowTimes caption contest!  Thanks everyone for participating and I hope we keep it going.

Our winner for Week 2 of the contest is revrue914!

The winning caption? "I go through more cards than a blackjack dealer in vegas."

For those of you just starting out, here are the basic rules to get going:

I've decided to add a "Circle of Winners" to the weekly post.  If you win in a given week, you will get your name on the list of winners.  Below are the extra goodies:  the circle of winners, weekly scoreboard and the next caption.  Give me some good ones ladies and gentlemen.

CIRCLE OF WINNERS:

Even at 0-2, there is always a silver lining.  It just sometimes takes a metal detector and a magnifying glass to find it in the pile of rubbish. With each week, I feel more and more confident that Bradford will develop into a franchise quarterback.  He has very few weapons on offense, his team seems to have caught the injury bug, and his offensive line is inconsistent.  At the same time, he seems to be gaining confidence in his throws and utilizing more of his enormous talent in the face of pressure.

We are heading into Week 3 and the season has barely begun, but it's never too early to start analyzing our performance.  Ignoring all the banter about statistics not reflecting the nature of the game or the performance of the player (I agree with those of you arguing that Bradford was very close to only one interception in Week 1), let's look at Bradford's statistics through his first two games:

Week 1 : 30/55, 253 yards, 1TD, 3INT, 53.1 passer rating, 2 sacks

Week 2: 14/25, 167 yards, 2TD, 1INT, 86.6 passer rating, 3 sacks

Extrapolating his current statistical output out to a full season, Bradford theoretically would finish the season with 3,360 yards, 24TD, 32INT, a 57.5 passer rating, and a total of 40 sacks.

Now let's put this in context and establish what it really means in comparison to his current and recent competition:

1. The sack totals place him in the top 10 most sacked QBs this season.  
2. Bradford is currently 18th in the league in passing yards.  
3. While he is currently tied for 10th in TD passes, Bradford is tied for the 2nd most INTs in the league right now, with only Joe Flacco (5) throwing more picks.
4. While ranked 25th in passer rating, here is nonetheless a short list of notable quarterbacks Bradford is currently ahead of in the rankings: Brett Favre, Joe Flacco, Matt Moore, Matt Cassel, Jake Delhomme, Trent Edwards, Jason Campbell.

Yet it is rather unfair to compare a rookie Sam Bradford, with a void of talent surrounding him (except for Steven Jackson) on offense, to quarterbacks such like Tom Brady, throwing balls to a talented pass-catching corp including Randy Moss and Wes Welker.  Instead let's compare him to heralded quarterbacks snatched up by the worst team in the league relative to their competition: other quarterbacks drafted #1 overall.

After projecting his current production to a full season, among the 19 quarterbacks drafted #1 overall in the past 40 years Bradford would be:

1. The 3rd most sacked quarterback, only behind David Carr (sacked an astonishing 76 times) and Tim Couch (56).
2. Ranked 11th in passer rating, ahead of passers such as Eli Manning, Troy Aikman, Terry Bradshaw, John Elway, Alex Smith, and Jamarcus Russell while behind David Carr, Tim Couch, Peyton Manning, Drew Bledsoe, and Jeff George.
3. The most intercepted quarterback.
4. Behind only one other quarterback in TD passes: Peyton Manning.

It is likely that the volume of passing opportunities Bradford received in Week 1 will be an outlier in his 2010 season, thus adding to the absurdity of using such a small sample size to analyze Bradford's performance.  Additionally, it must be noted that the only quarterbacks in this group to start all 16 games were David Carr and Peyton Manning.  Tim Couch (14) was close and Jim Plunkett (14)  played in a time of a 14-game season, but it is an exclusive group drafted #1 overall and starting 16 games.

The cause of Bradford's statistical output may have nothing to do with his abilities and may more appropriately be attributed to line play, receiver talent (or lack thereof), game planning, adjustments to the running game, etc.  Furthermore, this small sample of play is not a good basis for judging Bradford's development.  What I mean by that is: it really means nothing at this point in the season.  Nonetheless, some food for thought.

Hello once again my fine friends!  The first week of the Turf Show Times' Thursday Caption Contest was a success with almost 40 unique submissions, while the Rams' game last Sunday was a mixture of success (Sam Bradford, Mark Clayton, the defense) and disappointment (losing, Mark Clayton, and the linebackers).  Thanks everyone for participating and I hope we keep it going.  If you have a good name for the caption contest, let me know.  

Our winner for the first week of the contest is GreetingsADM!

The winning caption? This Carpenter was also crucified

For those of you just starting out, here are the basic rules to get going:

Below are the extra goodies:  the weekly scoreboard and the next caption.  Give me some good ones ladies and gentlemen!

I hope you all didn't miss me while I dealt with crashing browsers, vanishing posts, and a trip out of town.  Fear not, I have made my triumphant return and bring with me some exciting new ideas.

Starting this week, we'll have yet another weekly TST contest for you all!  While we formulate a clever name and create a logo, here are the basics:

Not only did the Rams sell enough tickets to put light on the blackout, but....::drum roll::

The St. Louis Rams have sold out their season opener, ending a string of three consecutive home games that were blacked out. - Yahoo Sports

The biggest story for the Rams this year has been the development and play of rookie quarterback Sam Bradford.  Now that we’ve seen "The Great Hope" take some snaps with the first team offense in training camp and chuck the rock in a "game situation" (if preseason games can be called such), we have the opportunity to reflect on his performance in relation to the highly esteemed* veteran quarterbacks on the roster, namely Keith Null and A.J. Feeley.  What does Bradford’s performance mean when combined with rookie quarterback trends and current team’s performance?  Should we ease our quarterback of the future into the league or throw him to the wolves in Week 1?  When will Bradford get his first start?  A detailed analysis after the jump…

Continue reading this post »

I swear I have a heart, but anyone else get a little giddy any time another team gets a bad break, whether its a holdout, suspension, or injury?  One person's loss is another's gain.

• Crossing our fingers, we had the good news today that Jason Smith participated in 11-on-11 drills today for the first time in training camp.  While he practiced with the second-team, it looks like he'll be fine in no time.
• Our savior who will lead us out of the desert of misery and losses and into the land of milk, honey, and touchdowns...I mean Sam Bradford...got the nod as "Worth Consideration Off Your Waiver Wire" for fantasy football, with a comparison to Matt Schaub.  I think I'll pass, but maybe you see some potential.

Cameron Hollway over at CBS Sports got some good stuff on the Rams today:

• Coach Steve Spagnola on rookie CB Jerome Murphy: "In this league, what slows down rookies is this part," said coach Steve Spagnuolo, pointing to his head. "What we've seen on tape isn't coming through yet, but we expect it to."
• C Jason Brown (6-3, 328) has been the most impressive offensive lineman in the one-on-one "Oklahoma Drill," road-grating anyone the defense puts in front of him.
• An illustration of how young the WR corps is: rookie Mardy Gilyard's nickname for Laurent Robinson, 25, is "Old Man." The oldest of the 10-man group is third-year WR Donnie Avery, who turned 26 in June.
• Rookie WR Mardy Gilyard on his blocking duties: "I was a slickster with it (at Cincinnati) -- show low and hit high. I'd try to scheme my way into having good blocks. I have to work on being a blocker. I'm a slim 195, so I have to lean toward the technique side of it."

In recent years, Steven Jackson has been the meat, the potatoes, and…well…pretty much everything on the plate except for the garnish on top of the Rams’ sizzling filet.  He has had a considerable number of carries in that time, and is likely once again expected to grind and cut through defenses at least twenty times per game this year.

Not many teams employ the "workhorse running back" method and have moved towards running backs by committee.  Some workhorse running backs have stuck around for years in committees, while others serve as mediocre backups, and yet others fall off the face of the earth in terms of production.  Running backs simply do not carry the ball as much anymore, and even the new breed of "workhorse backs," like the Minnesota Vikings’ Adrian Peterson, don’t touch the ball like the older guys used to.

In 2009, it seemed as if the last of the workhorse running backs were finally dying off, and the ones that were still around were pushed into committees (Larry Johnson) or were skeletons of their former selves (LaDainian Tomlinson).  The one exception? Steven Jackson.

Steven Jackson has been through a lot, but is hitting what could be the peak of his career, before he begins the precipitous fall that almost inevitably happens to running backs at age 30.  My question to you: how good ishe?  He is the top paid running back in the league (unless Chris Johnson gets his dream payday) but is he really worth the top salary?

Argument against:

Jackson has some mileage on him right now.  While he doesn’t have the 3,000+ touches of LaDainian Tomlinson, he has touched the ball over 1,800 times, much greater than many players in the NFL.  Additionally, he has suffered several injuries in recent years, playing only 12 games in 2007 and 2008.  The latest injury to his spine could possibly be a chronic injury that threatens his ability to play professional football, especially at the level he has played in the past.

Additionally, he averages 4.4 yards per carry over his career, and his YPC was showing a trend of diminishing until this year.  His YPC is still very good, but does very good warrant the highest contract in the NFL?  Probably not.  Proven veterans like Adrian Peterson and Michael Turner (despite his injuries last year) have a 4.9 YPC average for their careers.

I won’t say it is his fault that he didn’t score (the Rams didn’t give him many red zone opportunities anyway), but the biggest issue I have with him is that his numbers are certainly inflated.  We can look at 2009, yet another futile year for the Rams, as a good example.  Jackson was pretty terrible in the red zone.  He had a 2.5 YPC average within the enemy’s territory.  Additionally, his yards per carry were higher in the second half of games.  This is after the Rams were already 14 points down in most cases. To highlight this, Jackson’s YPC in the 1^st quarter were, on average, 3.7 while in the second half, they were almost 4.5.  Therefore many of his yards came in the second half, once we already were hoping for a mercy rule.

Argument for:

Are you kidding me?  This guy has raked in the yards by the hundreds on one of the worst teams in the league.  For the past five years, facing stacked boxes, fighting through injuries, and providing leadership to his entire team, he has led the Rams.  He also provides a focus of attention for the defense, enhancing our passing game (oh wait, we don’t have one).  With a solid line, he will be the key to giving comfort to Sam Bradford in the future.

Admittedly, Jackson is somewhat injury-prone.  This may be a result of the constant pressure he faces, however.  Give him a good backup and you’re set.  Surprisingly, in those two years that he missed 4 games apiece, he still broke the 1,000 yard mark.

In case you didn’t know it, he just set a career high in 2009 for runs of 20+ yards, with 10 runs.  Certainly not bad, especially when he averaged about 22 touches per game. He is only getting MORE explosive. 

The thing that differentiates him from many other running backs is that he only fumbled twice last year.  That is TWICE, in 324 attempts.  That is one fumble every 162 rushes.  Ask Adrian Peterson or Steve Slaton how much they’d pay for those hands. 

His career yards per carry are pretty amazing considering he has been significantly injured three seasons in a row.  The guy doesn’t slow down, with a 4.4YPC average for carries 1-10, 11-20, and 21-30.  Additionally, while his 4^th quarter YPC is lower than his average, (1) it is not bad and (2) that was only in games where he was losing badly.  When the Rams were down by seven or less in the 4^th quarter, his YPC was 4.9.  When the games are close he performs better.  If ahead by 8 or less points, his YPC was 5.4, if behind by 8 or less points, his YPC was 4.4.  That’s what you want in a player.

Jackson is only getting better in my opinion.  Every other quality running back in the league has other threats on his team.  Chris Johnson had a mobile Vince Young last year, Adrian Peterson has an army of quality wide receivers, a Pro-Bowl QB, and a Pro-Bowl line, Michael Turner has young, explosive players around him.  Obviously Jackson’s touchdown count is deceiving, since he faces stacked boxes every down and the Rams’ impotent offense gets in the red zone about every time Haley’s comet passes.  If we get some free agent to back him up, and his body doesn’t act up too much, I strongly believe his next year can be better than his 2006, 2300+ yard performance. Here's to optimism!

Best running back in the league?  Let me hear your thoughts.

Some say that winning is a habit.  Obviously it's one that we lack, with only three wins in the past two seasons, so that's not looking too good for us.  Despite our trend of losing, let's look on the bright side: we probably are going to win a game in 2010, regardless of how awful or outmatched we may look on paper.  Some team is going to overlook the lowly Rams, the matchups may be just right, perhaps the cosmos will align in the perfect manner, or maybe we will actually just dominate the field from start to finish, but in all likelihood (knock on wood!) we will win a game in 2010.  

Maybe it's too much Turf Show Times Kool-Aid, but in recent weeks I have gained a lot of optimism about the Rams, relative to how I felt in prior weeks.  Despite a boring free agency, a good but not spectacular draft, and a potentially chronic injury to the one true playmaker on the team, I've gone from thinking the Rams were making the sensible if unsexy moves towards slowly building a respectable team to now believing that the Rams will certainly play the underdog in every game of the season, but that if the football gods bless us with good health and some luck, they will also suprise a team or two along the way.

So if the Rams are going to win a game, the real question is: when?

I believe we will probably win our first game of the season.

If you forget what the Rams schedule looks like, feel free to check it out in the poll at the bottom.  Otherwise, I'll try to give a good explanation of why the Rams will [perhaps] start off 1 for 1 on the season.

Week 1 vs. Arizona Cardinals

The Rams are currently about 3-4 point underdogs on this game.  I think that the lossess of Karlos Dansby and Antrel Rolle would take a defense that wasn't that great anyway, and turn it into the sieve that has historically been associated with the Cardinals, if it weren't for some decent pickups of young guys and veterans.  These include Darryl Washington, Kerry Rhodes, Joey Porter, and Dan Williams.  Their defense will be improved over last year's, that is almost certain.  Yet the questions of the team chemistry, the effectiveness of their nose tackle, the wear and tear on some of their acquisitions and the offseason development of their young players, who will be forced to fill substantial roles in the defense,  are notable.  On the other hand, I believe our defense will make huge strides this year if the defensive line can step up big time.  I would give the Cardinals an edge defensively against our team.

The key to our victory lies in the fact that the Cardinals' offense has lost two of its three most important players.  With the departures of Kurt Warner and Anquan Boldin, the only quality pickup for the Cardinals offense as Alan Fanica.   I'm fairly positive that Doucet and Steve Breaston will have solid seasons in Boldin's spot, but the multitude of threats and different offensive packages that the Cardinals possessed was built around the Boldin/Fitzgerald tandem of playmakers.  I think our secondary will be able to keep Fitzgerald relatively contained, while getting the plays necessary to disrupt the rest of the passing game as Leinart will face immense pressure throughout the game.  The key to this game will be to force the Cardinals into a passing oriented approach, and play physical up front.  Wells and Hightower aren't terrible, but the Cardinals simply aren't going to be commanding as much respect in the passing game now that they no longer possess one of the best receiver tandems in the league and a living legend in Warner.  Their offensive line screams a new run-oriented approach to the game, but I simply don't think they have the talent to win games on the ground.

Well, we see how the Cardinals can lose the game, but how can the Rams win the game?  First and foremost, getting in Leinart's face.  The Cardinals' skill players are all  relatively dynamic, with most everyone capable of catching a well thrown football and gaining some yardage.  If we can shut down Fitzgerald, the game will be in Leinart's hands.  The offense simply won't run well unless Leinart can distribute the ball to the other players.  We must stop that from happening.  The Cardinals' run game is of slight concern, but if we can get in Leinart's head, then we will be able to control their playbook from the field and adapt accordingly.

The Rams will also have to use Steven Jackson to test the younger Cardinals.  This is obvious, but more than anything, run blocking will be vital.  Our passing game will face pressure, and the plays (in the form of yards after the catch) will be mostly left to the wide receivers, not Feeley or Bradford (whoever ends up starting).  We will need to try lots of quick passes, ala West Coast offense.  This will prove helpful as our young line will likely not be in sync yet, and the less time we depend on the line, the better.  I really think that Daniel Fells could prove the difference maker.  If the Rams can make it to the end zone, we need him to step up, as the guy has the potential and physical tool to be a solid end-zone machine. 

If the Rams can keep the Cardinals from moving the ball on offense, I think our own offense (provided Steven Jackson and the offensive line are relatively healthy) would be capable of putting just enough points up on the board to win a low-scoring, close game, even without Bradford.  This game will prove very physical, and I believe the Cardinals will embrace a more physical game throughout the season.  I don't doubt that our offense will (once again, provided health) be able to grind out enough yards to win  a low scoring game, but the key will be to limit the Cardinals on offense so as not to fall behind early.

My other contenders for our first win:

Week 4 vs. Seattle

Week 7 @ Tampa Bay

Tell me when you think we'll win!

Feel free to add me on Twitter: bgall88

Vince Vaughn's character in Swingers can't wait to get to Las Vegas and live it up, screaming, "Vegas, baby, Vegas!"  I recommend Rams fans, on the other hand, stay away from Sin City for awhile if they don't want bad news.

In recent days, Vegas oddsmakers have released an array of odds and betting lines for the 2010 season.  While we noted that some prediction gurus calculated that the Rams will pull off 4.1 wins, some sites have a variety of different predictions and outlooks.  Most of them are not so good:

• The crew over at VegasInsider and Bodog have their future win total odds based off of 5 wins.  The only other teams with the same number? The Detroit Lions and the Buffalo Bills. 
  
• For the Rams' first game, a division contest against Arizona, we are anywhere from 3-4 point underdogs.  Normally, about 3 points is considered "homefield advantage."  The unfortunate thing is, this game is at home, so the oddsmakers think we're realistically 5-7 point underdogs in terms of talent.
• Our odds to win the NFC Championship are 75-to-1, good for the worst chance in the conference.  The team with the second-worst odds is Tampa Bay with about 50-to-1 odds. 
  
• Think you're really, really, lucky and that the Rams are going to undergo the greatest turnaround in NFL history?  Get rich!  Put some money on the Rams winning the Super Bowl.  Current odds put us at about 150-to-1 odds of winning the big one.
  

Two significant notes:

1. Even if we win 4 games, that would be a drastic improvement over the single game we won last year.  Also, the odds infer that there is a fairly good chance the Rams could win 5 games.  If the Rams were to go 5-11, by all means it would be disappointing, but pragmatically we'd have to be pleased.

1. Additionally, by no means are these absolute numbers.  Right now many sites don't have their odds set, the "action" on the odds and lines can move them one way or another, and the folk over in Vegas change them all the time for their esoteric reasons.  Some sites have the betting line of the Rams winning the NFC West at +1500 or +1200, others have our chances at the NFC Championship at 60-to-1, and still others have our odds of winning the Super Bowl at 100-to-1...nonetheless, it doesn't look pretty.

Twiddling their thumbs nervously and barely making any moves, much like the guy who brings twenty bucks to a five-to-play poker game, this offseason the Rams have passed on a bevy of big-name free agents.  While the Rams have rightfully stayed silent as aged veterans like Julius Peppers, Aaron Kampman, Donovan McNabb, Ben Watson, Kyle Vanden Bosch ,and Larry Johnson have flocked to teams with Super Bowl aspirations, the Rams have also sat on their hands as the rest of the league has snatched up younger, solid backups players and studs alike, including Jason Campbell, Santonio Holmes, Brandon Marshall, and Donald Penn.

At this point, most will agree that the Rams need a true #2RB.  Steven Jackson is starting to break down and while we tend to think of him as the guy that Rocks Without Blocks, there’s only so much abuse our centerpiece can take before his knees and back betray us to our darkest nightmare: a scenario where our quarterback and wide receivers have to carry our offense.

Even more than a verifiable #2RB, we need playmakers.  Mardy Gilyard certainly adds to our talent, but the draft is over and our offense is certainly better, but still lacks the firepower for other teams to respect our offense.  Since our quarterback position is covered, our line is upgraded and developing, and our roster is so full of tight ends that we should put our roster in the Lingerie Bowl, let’s take a gander at some of the current bargain-bin of remaining NFL free agents:  

WIDE RECEIVERS:

Terrell Owens:

Well, T.O. went to Buffalo and didn’t blow up too badly.  At 36, the guy is pretty worn down.  In 2009, he only caught five touchdowns, had his lowest yards-per-catch since catching passes from Jeff Garcia in San Francisco in 2003, and failed to break the 1,000 yard mark for the first time in four years.  Admittedly he played on the Buffalo "Kills to Watch How Bad We Are" Bills, which certainly hurt his stats.  Suprisingly he didn’t create too much off-the-field attention, but seems poised to look for a Super Bowl contender.  The odds of him agreeing to come to St. Louis, plus his huge drop in performance (as well as likely a fairly high salary), indicates almost no likelihood of him wanting to join us, or us wanting him.

Kevin Curtis:

Oh Kevin Curtis, how far you have come!  Remember when you tricked us into thinking you were a pretty good-but-not-great receiver so that you could leave the Show-Me State, then unleashed a monster season in Philadelphia the next year?

At one point, with Kevin Curtis and Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Rams roster held the two highest ever verified scores on the Wonderlic Test.  Now that brain might be all that is left.  Since his 1,100 yard breakout in 2007, his numbers have dive-bombed.  He only started 8 games in 2008 and 1 game in 2009, due to extensive injuries in both seasons and the depth of the Eagles wide receiving corp.  At 31, he is four years elder the man we once had.  I think he certainly still has some play left in him, even with all of the surgeries he looks to recover from, but the real question is: do we need another not-so-speedy slot guy?

Javon Walker:

This guy spotlighted the great holdout war.  After his nearly 1,400 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2004, he held out for a new contract in Green Bay, only to suffer a season-ending injury in his first game of the season.

The man is physical force.  He is listed at 6’ 3" and 215lbs.  He’s an absolute letdown on the field nonetheless.  For years now, teams have kept him on their rosters with fond memories of his glory days.  Yet after his remarkable comeback season for the 2006 Broncos, he has experienced rapid decreases in statistical output.  He has less than 500 yards receiving over the course of the past 3 years, and only played (he never started) in 3 games in 2009 for the Raiders.  It’s not like the Raiders have much talent at receive either. 

Running Backs:

Once again, we’re looking at a plethora of old, injured men longing for another chance to play professional football. 

Brian Westbrook:

Rumors at the beginning of the summer had Brian Westbrook portrayed as heavily interested in playing for the Rams and going so far as to undergo a physical, which he passed.  The guy has suffered more head trauma than the average NFL player or professional boxer, and has a penchant for injury.  Yet when he has played, even through all of the injuries, he has been a dynamic running and receiving threat in the vein of Marshall Faulk.  Even since his step has slowed down, he could certainly offer a threat to take some pressure off of Steven Jackson and provide a reliable weapon for Bradford. 

Even though he is 30, I could see the Rams taking a shot on him for a season then drafting someone next year.  The biggest problem is that he may simply not want to come to the Rams.  Apparently Westbrook wants to play on a team capable of winning, and the real question is: How does the Rams’ outlook appear to Westbrook?  The answer is, not good.

LenDale White:

White provides a couple of interesting perks.  He is fairly young at 25, and has experienced recent success with limited injuries.  His 2007 and 2008 seasons were remarkably solid and he has little problem playing behind a running back so long as he gets a moderate amount of carries, despite being a diva.  In 2009, with Chris Johnson experiencing one of the greatest seasons ever for a running back, White took the back seat, but certainly was not benched for being terrible.

White isn’t a dynamic player or even much different from Jackson.  Rather he could merely help spell Jackson when need be, which is the ultimate purpose of acquiring a running back at this point.  There are two crucial areas of concern on this kid, however: (1) He is lazy.  Albert Haynesworth Jr., minus the phenomenal talent.  Only in his contract year did he decide to throw tequila out of his diet and lose some of his flab, and the coaches would have to lead him by a stick and a Big Mac if they want him to excel.  (2) He apparently has something in common with Ricky Williams, besides being a running back that is.  Consequentially he will be suspended for the first four games of the season.  Worth it?  Probably not.

Justin Fargas:

Fargas is better than his numbers indicate in my opinion.  First, he has played on the Raiders.  That in itself means less scoring and less yards, not that his numbers have been particularly bad with about 2300 YFS in the past 3 season.  He just hit the magical age of 30, when the running back gods have cursed professional footballers to brittle bones and less fast in the fast-twitch fibers, but he hasn’t carried the ball too much in his years.  He also has experience as a primary back in 2007 and to a lesser degree in 2008.  He can catch the ball a bit as well, with 50 catches in 40 games in the past 3 seasons.  The guy is old and not a stud, but certainly not broken and can play his role.  In my opinion this is the guy we want to put our money towards.

Do you think we should check out one of these free agents, someone else, or none of them?

The St. Louis Rams have certainly made some positive moves this offseason.  In the free agent markets, the recent signing of O.J. Atogwe to a long-term deal, the pickups of Fred Robbins and Na'il Diggs, and theamputation of the infection (i.e. Alex Barron) on the left side of our line in exchange for a young Bobby Carpenter, will certainly help us out.  In the draft, the trio of Roger Saffold, Sam Bradford, and Mardy Gilyard will provide some power and consistency to the offense, and we're certain to find some keepers in our numerous defensive selections.

The three worst teams last season, in my opinion, were the Browns, Buccaneers, and Lions.  These three teams won 5, 3, and 2 games, respectively.  While the Chiefs had one less win than the Browns on the season, I would put my money on the Chiefs over the Browns because of their (relative) offensive firepower in Jamaal Charles, Dwayne Bowe, Chris Chambers, and Matt Cassel.  I know, I know, I know, the Browns beat the Chiefs last year; but how often will the Browns rush for 325 yards?

Last season, I would put a healthy Rams team at the top tier of those basement-dwellers.  The Rams were devastated with injuries across the board, lost some close games, and drastically underachieved, in turn yielding the league's worst record and a single win.  Nearly everyone was reluctant, however, to name us the worst team in the league.

Looking forward to 2010, if Sam Bradford and Co. are to be expected to part the seas and lead us to some more wins, we have to not only improve, but improve relative to the rest of the NFL.  Luckily, we get to play 2 of the above 3 teams in our cakewalk schedule.

Few doubt that Spags and Devaney are moving this team in a positive direction, especially with a front office hamstrung by the ownership change (or lack thereof).*  The real question is: have we cut the deadweight, gained some size, speed and strength, and have the coaching to run with the big boys in 2010?

I believe that the Rams could certainly pull off some upsets and will play lots of close games, but that most of the other comparable teams have simply had better, more active off-seasons.  The Browns, despite winning the most games of this group, have the least amount of talent on their roster in the entire NFL at this point.  The Lions appear to have many more weapons on offense and defense and the Bucs should pick up couple wins as their 2009 draft class matures and their defense steps up.

Here are some offseason pickups by the dregs of the league to gauge how our boys are doing in the off-season:

LIONS: 

Kyle Vanden Bosch (DE)

Nate Burleson (WR)

Corey Williams (DT)

Chris Houston (CB)

Tony Scheffler (TE)

Ndamukong Suh (DT)

Jahvid Best (RB)

Rob Sims (OG)

Larry Foote (LB)

Ernie Sims (LB)

BUCCANEERS:

Reggie Brown (WR)

Jevan Snead (QB)

Gerald McCoy (DT)

Brian Price (DT)

Arrelious Ben (WR)

Myron Lewis (CB)

Mike Williams (WR)

Byron Leftwhich (QB)

Antonio Bryant (WR)

BROWNS:

Joe Haden (CB)

T.J. Ward (S)

Montario Hardesty (RB)

Colt McCoy (QB)

Jake Delhomme (QB)

Shawn Lauvao (G)

Scott Fujita (LB)

Senece Wallace (QB)

Ben Watson (TE)

Peyton Hillis (RB)

Tony Pashos (T)

Dante Stallworth (WR)

Corey Williams (DT)

Hank Fraley (C)

Derek Anderson (QB)

Brady Quinn (QB)

Steve Heiden (E)

Kamerion Wimbley (LB)

RAMS:

A.J. Feeley (QB)

Fred Robbins (DT)

Na'il Diggs (OLB)

Bobby Carpenter (OLB)

Sam Bradford (QB)

Rodger Saffold (OT)

Mardy Gilyard (WR)

Hall Davis (DE)

Jerome Murphy (CB)

Marc Bulger (QB)

Randy McMichael (TE)

Alex Barron (OT)

Leonard Little (DE)

Adam Carriker (DT)

Jonathan Wade (CB)

What do you think?  Where do the Rams, on paper, rank with the rest of the NFL?

*Thank you NFL ownership rules...

Well VanRam was looking for some help contributing to the TST, and alas here I come to save the day, cape and all.

As you all experience the cabin fever of the NFL off-season, barely tolerating the itching urge to fire up your grills for a tailgate and bust out your blue and gold face paint, I hope to provide some solace in the coming months and perhaps a little insight into NFL matters.  While I'll mostly be providing links to the latest stories and commentary until the NFL season starts, I'm also a statistics nerd and will be doggy-paddling through the sea of numbers in search of an interesting story or two of my own for you.

When I'm not writing on here from my outpost in Washington DC (born and raised in St. Louis, however), ending world poverty, or slaying dragons, I tend to do the following:

• Play water polo.  I played Division I for my first two years of college and now play on a master's team.  Most of you probably don't know what water polo is, but it can be summarized in 5 words: hairy men wrestling in Speedos.
• Argue politics/philosophy.  I currently live in Washington, DC.  If you don't follow politics here, there's not much to talk about.  Oh yeah, besides this guy.
• Listen to music.  I love all types of music, so send me anything good and I will definitely take a listen.  I'll even listen to the reggae-metal-pop demo you made on your cell phone's voice recorder in your mom's basement.
  

As the young gun on the TST, I've still got [some] optimism about our boys on the Rams that many of you jaded veterans lost sometime between 2007 and 2010.  I am very excited to be provided the opportunity to write for you all and I hope you enjoy my contributions.  Let me know if there is anything of particular interest to you as well and I'll try to cover it.  If you want to find out more about me, feel free to follow me onTwitter or Facebook.

Huddle around the fire for some good discussion, rally, and fight the good fight! Go Rams!