Bwuahahahahahaha Falcons

So far, Wildcard Weekend has been pretty dull. Here's to hoping the next game actually proves to be entertaining and exciting. What is on tap next? Broncos/Steelers?

Well poo.

With the start of preseason, it's time for a refresher. 

As an FYI for prospective new users, there's a two-day waiting period between registration and the time your account becomes active. Keep that in mind if you plan on taking part in game threads. 

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Now there's a song you haven't thought about since 1999.

Continue your discussion of various draft pipe dreams here.

4/26/11 - Since we're in the midst of the draft and have some new folk around here, it seems like a good time to bump this to the front page. As always, if you have any questions feel free to e-mail one of the mods or post it directly in the comment thread of this post.

Hello new members of Field Gulls. If you haven't noticed yet, our gracious SBN hosts have a rather unique system in place to facilitate commenting. It's a powerful interface, but can be fairly confusing at first. Don't you fret, I'll step you through the basics.

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Joshua Mayers of the Times with the story

H/T to the folks over at SounderAtHeart

Before people start frothing at the mouth let's be clear that this is a joint effort from both the Sounders and the Seahawks. The current turf at Qwest Century Link Field likely will need to be replaced soon due to the usual wear-and-tear. The question at this stage is what that replacement will be. 

Last week, the Sounders, Seahawks and First and Goal commissioned a study to see if grass could be a viable playing surface in the future. But whether it's grass or artificial turf, the days on the current surface are numbered.

"I would be surprised if we're playing on the same turf next year," said [Sounders General Manager Adrian] Hanauer, who claimed "timing and logistics" prevented a new installation before this season.

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A common suggestion this offseason for the Seahawks front office is to retain the services of Brandon Mebane via the franchise tag. On the surface this makes a great deal of sense. Mebane is a 26-year-old, disruptive defensive tackle that was a standout on a 2011 line that had talent issues. That's the kind of young, skilled player teams want to keep around. 

Things get a little murkier once you take a look at current tag numbers.

Assuming there's a CBA in place and current tag rules are upheld, the Seahawks could be facing a very expensive decision should they choose to go that route. Courtesy of Jason La Canfora of the NFL Network, here's a look at the expected franchise-tag salaries for this offseason based on position:

Quarterbacks: $16 million ($16.4 million in 2010)
Running backs: $9.5 million ($8.15 million in 2010)
Wide receivers: $11.3 million ($9.5 million in 2010)
Tight ends: $7.3 million ($5.9 million in 2010)
Offensive linemen: $10.1 million ($10.7 million in 2010)
Defensive ends: $12.9 million ($12.4 million in 2010)
Defensive tackles: $12.5 million ($7 million in 2010)
Linebackers: $10 million ($9.7 million in 2010)
Cornerbacks: $14 million ($9.6 million in 2010)
Safeties: $8.8 million ($6.5 million in 2010)
*Kickers: $3.1 million ($2.8 million in 2010)

Thanks to Dan Snyder and the Washington Redskins, the Seahawks could expect to pay $12.5 million if they were to franchise Mebane. While we don't know what a new CBA would mean to salary caps yet, we can acknowledge that would be a pretty sizable chunk of payroll. 

*$3.1 million to slap the tag on a kicker? Ouch. 

Let's go ahead and poll this one. 

Username: BrianL (Real name: Brian Larsen)
Member of Field Gulls Since: January 12, 2008 (original user ID: hell if I know)  
How I Discovered Field Gulls: Like Phil, I ran into Field Gulls after becoming a part of the USSM and Lookout Landing communities. I was looking for a Seahawks resource that had the same type of objective, honest analysis that could be found throughout the Mariners sabermetric blogosphere. FG was a godsend to me in that regard. Unlike both Phil and Scruffy, I joined the community well after it had become an established part of SBN and the Seattle sports blog scene. To put that into perspective, I don't actually remember a Field Gulls that predated John. Shrug had stepped down well before I joined. 

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If you've been in comment threads for any length of time, there's a good chance you've seen me pull my hair out over the use of QB Rating as an evaluation metric. The answer I've probably given you is something along the lines of "QB Rating is football's version of WHIP*. It's a junk stat."

*If you want to see good baseball pitching stats, head to Fangraphs and read up on tRA and FIP.

Let's start off by taking a look at the formula behind one of sports' worst commonly accepted statistics.

a = (((Comp/Att) * 100) -30) / 20
b = ((TDs/Att) * 100) / 5
c = (9.5 - ((Int/Att) * 100)) / 4
d = ((Yards/Att) - 3) / 4

a, b, c and d cannot be greater than 2.375 or less than zero.

QB Rating = (a + b + c + d) / .06

What we have here is a needlessly convoluted mess that doesn't tell us anything of value. This is a statistic that overvalues completion percentage and doesn't put enough value to actual yardage. Let's do a demonstration.

QB #1 goes 35 for 40 and Mark Sanchezes his way to 125 yards, passing for one touchdown and zero interceptions.

QB #2 goes 20 for 40, good for 300 yards. He also had one touchdown and zero interceptions.

Plugging these numbers into PrimeComputing's QB Rating Calculator, we return an 88.02 rating value for QB #1. QB #2, on the other hand, scores a rating of 83.33.

Just what has happened here? The first quarterback in this little exercise has been handsomely rewarded for checking down and hitting his outlet receivers. The second quarterback has taken a beating for missing on half of his attempts.

I suspect you're beginning to see the issue now.

QB Rating adores players who put up high completion percentages. The problem with this is that it largely ignores the context of those passes. Why value a quarterback so highly for completing a boatload of passes when that's done next to nothing to move the offense forward? Speaking strictly in terms of moving the ball*, you should want the performance our second hypothetical quarterback put up.  

*And I understand that an argument could be made that a higher completion percentage is valuable because it helps keep the clock running. Overall, I think being able to put up yardage wins out.

This only scratches the surface as to why QB Rating is such a flawed tool. I haven't even discussed that it was designed to correlate to quarterbacks in the 70s or how it ignores the context of the game situation. Is an 80-yard drive and a touchdown pass from Seneca Wallace really all that valuable when you're down by twenty with two minutes left in the game? QB Rating doesn't care.

Edit: Something I left off that Nate Dogg points out, QB Rating gives the quarterback full credit for touchdowns. Is it really fair to do that when someone (say, Justin Forsett) gets the ball in the backfield and jukes the entire defense out of their cleats for 20+ yards on the way to the endzone?

I don't want the takeaway here to be that complex statistics are bad. There are other measures that (while not perfect) do a better job valuing player performance. This stat, on the other hand, is mostly noise. 

Scruffy and I can confirm that John has stepped down from his writing and administration duties here at Field Gulls. Both of us wish him the best of luck moving forward.

Given that I was out most of the day, the news of John's departure didn't reach me right away. When Toot got a hold of me on Twitter, my first reaction was to go into a state of disbelief. Second reaction was the launch into a ten-minute string of repeated f-bombs as Scruffy and I panicked over a Facebook chat window.

This all goes without saying, but John Morgan will be dearly missed here at Field Gulls.

Field Gulls and the Seahawks fandom as a whole has greatly benefited from John's insight and wisdom. All of us have learned a great deal about this team and the game of gridiron football itself through John's writing over the years. Even when this team we all live and die by has appeared more hapless than not, he gave us a reason care and stay emotionally invested.

On a personal note, I just want to say how much I've appreciated what John has done for this community and the fandom. I discovered his writing around the same time I ventured into the world of sabermetric baseball analysis. John was one of the writers that taught me how important it was to not settle for results. Success in football and so many other walks of life depends on how you get to those results. This is why I personally hold John in the same light as guys like Jeff Sullivan, Dave Cameron, Derek Zumsteg, and Rob Neyer.

I wish I could better convey my gratitude for what he's done for both Field Gulls and the Seahawks fandom in general. What I can say is this:

Thank you, John.

Scruffy edit:

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We really haven't done this with any regularity in a while, so I'm going to take a moment and introduce you to what will (hopefully) be a regular feature here at Field Gulls: the Off-Topic Fanpost. OTFP for short

Normal commenting rules apply here in the OTFP. Keep in mind that this isn't designed to be something akin to Twitter or Facebook. This is a place where you can bring up interesting things to discuss and share, rather than informing us that you're eating a sandwich on your patio in the rain. Here's an example of what's cool and what's not:

Not cool:

Scruffy: I'm eating a sandwich! 

Getting better:

Scruffy: I'm eating a sandwich! Who likes sandwiches? 

Cool:

Scruffy: I just finished off a tasty turkey and provolone sandwich! Any suggestions on what other sandwiches I should look into next? 

Try to keep Seahawks news out of the OTFP and give them a fanpost of their own. Other than that, have at it. Make sure your comments are appropriate and don't violate any of the commenting rules here at FG. 

Sometimes I'll post a series of questions in the OTFP that you can answer if you'd like. Here are some questions!

• The Autumn Season: love it or hate it?
• Seasonal beer recommendations? (Always a fun topic)
• Television recommendations?
• Book recommendations? 
• Movie recommendations? 

Remember though, the OTFP is open to virtually all non-Seahawks discussion provided that they fall within the normal bounds of the FG commenting rules. Have a link you want to share? Go for it. Topic you want to discuss? Have at it. 

Enjoy!

Well this is odd I suppose. 

According to the Seattle PI's Greg Johns, Lawrence Jackson has been traded to the Detroit Lions for an undisclosed 2011 draft pick.

Greg John's Tweet:

#Seahawks trade Lawrence Jackson to Detroit for undisclosed 2011 draft pick ... the reverse Kentwan Balmer move.

More as it comes. 

Initially reported by Adam Schefter and picked up by others, it's sounding like Seattle has signed safety Earl Thomas to a 5-year deal.

Take it, Monsieur Schefter

Filed to ESPN: Seahawks signed first-round pick Earl Thomas to a 5-year, $21.1 million deal that includes $12.32 million guaranteed.

Remember when we had Brian Russell starting at safety? Neither do I. That's right, Earl. Make me repress those memories.*

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News just coming in, reported first by 710ESPN's Mike Salk via his Twitter account. 

Vulcan Sports & Entertainment announced today that CEO Tod Leiweke is resigning to join the NHL's Tampa Bay Lightning as CEO and part owner.

If for nothing else, this is interesting because Leiweke denied having interest in the Lightning opening back in April. 

Update 1: Greg Johns of the Seattle PI reports that Leiweke will stay on until a replacement is found. 

More as it comes. 

That didn't last long.

John Boyle of the Everett Herald and numerous other tweets are reporting that QB Mike Reilly has been released. In a non-related move, the Seahawks have signed WR Marcus Maxwell.