via i.imgur.com

Inspiration: Hunting with Johnny Cash (Johnny singing at 2:50 mark is amazing)

via i.imgur.com

via i.imgur.com

via i.imgur.com

via i.imgur.com

With the Interwebs abuzz at the news of Missouri's dalliances with the SEC, it seems an appropriate time to take a look at how the SEC schedule might play out with 14 teams. I think this will be a temporary setup, believing that Mike Slive wants to get the SEC to 16 teams in the not-too-distant future. 

Assumptions:

1. Texas A&M moves to the SEC West.

2. Missouri moves to the SEC East. I consider this the most agreeable way to keep the existing rivalries in tact. We can discuss the pros and cons in the comments section.

3. Existing (2011) SEC teams keep their annual cross-divisional rivalries (e.g., Alabama vs. Tennessee).

4. Missouri and Texas A&M naturally become each other's annual cross-divisional rivals.

5. Existing (2011) SEC teams generally play the second game of their new floating 2011 cross-divisional rivalries (e.g., LSU at Kentucky). One exception is made to this rule.

6. All teams must play an even number of home (3) and road (3) games within the division.

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Somewhat lighthearted look at the 2011 conference expansion winners and losers (so far). What y'all think?


Winners:

Nebraska, Colorado!
 - They upgraded bigtime last year by getting off the Titanic, and are now having some serious schadenfreude watching all of this go down. Link

Texas A&M!
 - Despite a few accusing them of breaking up the Big XII or killing a great rivalry, it's hard to deny that A&M made a good business decision and a good football decision. Link ... oh crap, wrong link ... try this one instead ... link

Texas!
 - Texas always wins. Even when the Pac 12 pretty much told them to shove the Longhorn Network down their throats, they bounce back and still control their own little Big XII playground. Money money money, Texas will always be alright. Good luck with them, Oklahoma. Link

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I'm sure I'm not the first, and I'm sure I won't be the last, but I thought it was worthwhile to see how hard it actually would be to create a 13-team schedule for 2012. I first defined some strict guidelines that the 13-team schedule must follow, then decided where there was some flexibility. Also, it's important to note that I'm not proposing a sustainable 13-team schedule ... this is a one-off. I can't imagine the SEC going more than one, maybe two seasons with 13 teams.

Guidelines:

1. Current (2011) SEC teams must play all of their current intradivision rivals.

2. Current (2011) SEC teams must play their current annual cross-division rival.

3. Current (2011) SEC teams must play the return trip of their new 2011 cross-division opponent (e.g., Arkansas must make its return trip to Tennessee).

4. Current (2011) SEC teams will not play each other at the same site as their 2011 game.

5. Scheduled new cross-division rivalries for 2012 will be vacated.

Exceptions:

1. Texas A&M is a full member SEC West. However, as the new guys, they will play four SEC West teams and four SEC East teams. This is the biggest shortcoming of the configuration in the short term - Texas A&M's schedule is not well-balanced with the other SEC West teams, and all SEC West teams have a reduced (1/7 rather than 1/6) chance to win the division and advance to the SEC Championship game in Atlanta.

2. Auburn and Alabama are the two SEC West teams that do not play Texas A&M, chosen simply because they have the least geographical proximity to College Station.

3. All 2012 intradivision return trips are at SEC East sites. As a result, all Texas A&M games against SEC East teams are at home, and all Texas A&M games against SEC West teams are on the road. As a result, Texas A&M will play at Arkansas for the second straight year. This is not ideal, but is necessary to keep these existing return trips in place.

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and stick it where the sun don't shine. God bless you, Julia Sugarbaker.

Here's the statement from Pac-12 Commissioner Larry Scott: “After careful review we have determined that it is in the best interests of our member institutions, student-athletes and fans to remain a 12-team conference. While we have great respect for all of the institutions that have contacted us, and certain expansion proposals were financially attractive, we have a strong conference structure and culture of equality that we are committed to preserve. With new landmark TV agreements and plans to launch our innovative television networks, we are going to focus solely on these great assets, our strong heritage and the bright future in front of us.”

Here's the key phrase: "we have a strong ... culture of equality that we are committed to preserve."

In other words, we don't want any part of your unabashed self-interest, Texas.


Meanwhile, see the linked article on Oklahoma. Short and sweet. Fire Dan Beebe (Big XII Commissioner) and put the reins on the Longhorn Network.

My questions: with options eastward seemingly dwindling, does the SEC look to make a package deal with Missouri, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State? Is the expansion parade officially on hold? And, as Clay Travis tweeted a few minutes ago, "Odds the ACC presidents try to give Pitt and Syracuse back now?"

Wow. What is next?

So, I've been drawn into this magic fantasy conference realignment saga like a moth to a magic fantasy conference realignment flame. It's actually more interesting than the season itself. But as a geographer, there has been a missing piece to this drama. Simply put, when the dust settles, what is the landscape of major college football going to look like ... on a map!? Will the new Pac 16 still be "Pac"? Will the Southeastern Conference still be southern? Will the Big 10 stretch from sea to shining sea? Will there even be another super-conference, and if so will it be a calico mottled mess? So I decided to fill in the missing piece. Take a look, and let me know what you think!

Major updates since our last version:

This is our first version, so ... Nebraska bolted the Big 12 for the Big 10 (B1G), Colorado and Utah joined up with the new Pac 12, Texas A&M is headed to the SEC, the ACC reached for permanent super-conference status by adding Syracuse and Pittsburgh. Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State are seriously considering application to the Pac whatever. The Southwest Conference is rumored to be going away completely, the WAC is considering expansion to 16 teams, and Tulane decided to leave the SEC. Crazy times are these.

What's next? 

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This post is entirely speculative. Don't place your conference expansion bets based on this information.

Here's my take on the 12 moves that matter ...

1. Texas A&M to the SEC (of course).

Sorry Baylor.

Missouri is suddenly in the cat bird's seat. SEC wants them for the market expansion and to get a fourth AAU school. Big 10 may want them as well, and will get them if they make the move - I gotta say, the Big 10 is in an even better position than the SEC, 'cause what university president of those available would turn them down (besides Notre Dame and Texas, perhaps)?

But both the SEC and Big 10 are waiting to see what happens with the Big XII, and get their answer with ..

2. Oklahoma to the Pac 13.

But, only because the Pac 12 agrees to ...

3. Oklahoma State to the Pac 14.

Now the Big XII is officially dead. No, Air Force, Houston, and Colorado State won't save you. So Missouri is on the auction block. SEC has a conditional offer in place under the table, which is now in effect - the SEC knows they need to act fast to get this unlikely gem. So Mizzou gets in touch with the Big 10 and says, hey, what's up? This one could go either way, I'll call it 50/50 ... either the Big 10 acts quickly and gets them (they will get them if they offer) ... or Delaney can't move fast enough and Mizzou takes the bird in the hand (which is a pretty good bird). I'm going with ...

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I think Kentucky has a great shot to win the appeal.  Based on precident among foreign players who received "extra benefits," the NCAA should rule that the family has to pay back the money, and that the penalty gets reduced to a one-year suspension. 

There's absolutely no way they could go any less than one year, though.  Not when players, including Vanderbilt's own Steve Tchiengang, have been suspended for varying (and in some cases significant) numbers of games for receiving considerably smaller amounts of extra benefits from their host families (rather than a Professional team).  But still, the ruling was excessive - a year would be more fair.

Kentucky AD Mitch Barnhart got it right when he said: "It is our hope that he will be allowed to continue his academic and athletic career at Kentucky."

The above suggestion would allow for just that, Mr. Barnhart.  You could even suggest as much in your appeal.

Ok, so I figured if everyone else can do it, so can I!  Crunched some numbers ... did some sanity-checking ... and came up with a ridiculously accurate bracket for y'all. 

1. Minnesota and Mississippi State are currently out.  If they win tomorrow, Virginia Tech and Oklahoma State will suffer for it. 

2. Duke is not a #1 seed.  Blame their pathetic road record.  West Virginia gets the fourth #1 by virtue of their Big East tournament win. 

3. Vanderbilt and Tennessee are #20 and #21 in the straight numbers S-curve.  Given some obvious overratings, both move up to a 4 seed (#14 and #15 respectively).

4. Without a Mississippi State upset, the SEC has 3 teams dancing. 

5. Kent State is the highest ranked team in the straight numbers S-curve to be left out of the dance.

The bracket appears magically after the jump ...

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I'm not even sure where to begin with this bumbling group in the 4-12 spots of the SEC.  The bubble tier of SEC teams just continues to screw up, and one gets the feeling that none of them is that terribly interested in going to the tournament this year.  Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and Florida - man, you guys have had so many opportunities, get it together!!  So yes, my declaration that Florida was in the "Big Four" was premanure.  They haven't arrived there, yet.  Certainly a win over #3 Kentucky would go a long way towards clinching a dance ticket.  Ditto with Mississippi State, and their game against Tennessee - right on the heels of a nasty loss to a surging Auburn team.

With Kentucky, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, and Tennessee all locked into their seeds (and three of those in the NCAA Tournament), this weekend comes down to jockeying for position among the little guys.  Can anybody playing on Thursday get a draw that will lead them into the "win-and-you're-in" game on Sunday?  Can State and Florida get a marquee win or two to round out their dance sheet? 

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 This is just for fun ... based on the other data I'm tracking, I made a composite ranking (1/2 RPI, 1/6 Pomeroy, 1/6 Sagarin, 1/6 BBState) and graphed it over the past month and a half.  I'm putting the NCAA bubble line at 50.  Mississippi State is the closest to crashing the party, with Florida the most tenuous of the teams on the inside. 

Let me know what you think! 

A somwhat volatile week in the SEC.  Florida continues their steady rise into NCAA Tournament contention, while Tennessee slips a little further back in the seedings.  I think we have four clear NCAA Tournament teams now - Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Florida, and Tennessee.  Some might argue that Florida is still near the bubble, but I think a 1-2 finish should keep them in there since their remaining schedule is very RPI favorable.  

What's wrong with the SEC West?  Shouldn't Mississippi or Mississippi State have run away from that nasty junkyard dog pack by now?    I actually think State might still do that, but now is definitely the time. 

Numbers for your consideration ...

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Another week has passed, with another series of Southeastern Conference games.  One trend that seems apparent is that the SEC as a whole, particularly the "middle six", are steadily losing traction in the rankings.  Unfortunately, with the exception of Florida, this is notable in the RPI rankings -- which are used directly by the NCAA Tournament committee.  There are three clear NCAA Tournament teams right now - Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee - but, it's not clear who's going to make a statement and join them. 

Moreover, the biggest game of the conference season takes place this week, as Kentucky visits Vanderbilt.  Kentucky can all but lock up the SEC Championship and a #1 seed with a road win in Nashville.  A Vanderbilt win means that the Conference race will come down to the wire, and Vanderbilt will have a legitimate shot at a top 3 seed in the dance. (I'm pretty sure that my dream last night, in which I attended the opening round NCAA tournament game between 1 seed Kentucky and 4 seed Vanderbilt, was not prescient.)

Numbers for your consideration ...

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You've grown up playing STAT KING.  You love it more than your own mother.  But, do you really know the STAT KING?  Take the following quiz  to see how you stack up on your STAT KING knowledge ... 10 simple STAT KING questions all STAT KING fans will love. 

1. Can I, an average Joe Fan, become STAT KING?

2. Can my favorite Commodore basketball player win the contest?

3. Who has the most STAT KING crowns?

4. Who is that lady admiring King Freije's guns?

5. What causes STAT KING to take unplanned leaves of absence? 

6. How many minutes must a player contribute in order to be eligible for the STAT KING crown?

7. Can family members play STAT KING?

8. Who has won the STAT KING contest more than anyone else (not counting "NO WINNER")?

9. Does STAT KING recruit middle school students?

10. Can I question the STAT KING?

Answers after the jump ...

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This is my first attempt to post, so bear with me.  Gemini, green eyes, free safety, enjoys long walks on the beach, virgin daiquiris, and Commodore basketball.  I'm trying out this whole beard thing, so you'll have to let me know what you think; have to admit, I'm a little surprised at how much gray I have in the chin area.  I'm not old enough for that yet.

Introductions out of the way, let's talk SEC basketball.  The conference is having a nice bounce-back from last year's disaster, and it bears out when the computers do their computations.  Perhaps not to the '06/'07 heights yet, but we'll get there soon enough.  Here are the numbers for your consideration & discussion:

More rankings after the jump...

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