Here's a great post regarding Nate Solder and Jimmy Smiths performances at the Combine from The Ralphie Report (SB Nations Colorado Buffaloes blog).  It also goes into great detail regarding Jimmy Smiths supposed "character concerns."  Yes, Jimmy Smith is absolutely very high on himself.  And no, don't assume that I don't consider the arrests and failed drug tests a big deal.  BUT, were they mistakes by a then immature freshman, or warning signs of a currently troubled man?  The arrests sound harmless; there doesn't seem to be much information out there regarding the failed drug tests.  Either way, definitely worth a read:

http://www.ralphiereport.com/2011/3/1/2024278/recapping-the-nfl-combine-for-nate-solder-and-jimmy-smith

So I'm flying back to Detroit from vacation last weekend and happened to pickup a copy of The Mens Journal to read on the airplane.  There's a pretty decent article about Robert Downey, Jr in the April edition, so I'd be remissed if I didn't mention that.  What the April copy of TMJ also had, however, was a great tongue-in-cheek article by Matt Taibbi, called "The NFL Draft, Decoded."  I highly recommend checking it out.  Here's a high-level preview of his 6 Rules to the Draft:

Rule 1. Dope Smokers are a bargain

Guys with drinking problems or who throw cell phones at their girlfriends' heads or get pulled over driving 110 with loaded unregistered pistols in their glove boxes are bad bets.  Guys who just stay at home and smoke weed while giggling at Manswers are not.  Thus: Always draft the guy who falls in draft position due to a positive weed test.  In fact, if a guy is regularly smoking weed and he's still kicking ass in Division I football, grab that motherf*cker quick.

He went on to claim Randy Moss as Percy Harvin as prospects who've fallen in the Draft due to positive drug tests.  And also that it takes 3 positive drug tests before a player will get banished from the league, which provides more than enough time for that player to serve out an initial 4-5 year contract.  Sorry, no mention of Charles Rogers in his argument, however.

Rule 2. Steer clear of the Recently Arrested

Did your target player punch out some poor unsuspecting bespectacled sociology major in a bar his freshman year?  Fine - that's just the delightful puppy phase!  But if the full-grown dog is still biting a week before the Westminster Kennel Club show, put him down.

Rule 3. Take a chance on Small

Taibbi lists Darren Sproles, Clinton Portis, Maurice Jones-Drew, Leon Washington and Chris Johnson all as guys who were red-flagged coming out of college due to their smaller stature.  He mentioned, however, to only grab that player if he possesses legitimate monster speed (sub-4.4 times).

Rule 4. Don't sleep on the Samoans

According to Taibbi, Samoan defensive players are consistently underdrafted.  He then adds that:

When you're done picking up angry Samoans in the early rounds, then start scouting for goofy-looking-but-useful white wide receivers in rounds three and beyond.

Rule 5. Be kind to fat Tight Ends

Taibbi mentions Jason Peters and Matt Lepsis as former college Tight Ends turned Pro-Bowl Offensive Tackles.  Charles Brown, a Left Tackle from USC and one of the players who visited the Lions HQ in Allen Park, was a former Tight End for the Trojans.  Maybe Martin Mayhew has a subscription to The Men's Journal?

Rule 6. Take a flyer on a late-round QB every year

Here's the thing about quarterbacks: You just don't know. Any coach who tries to tell you that he knew this or that late-round college quarterback was going to be an NFL star is a f*cking liar.  If you saw Tom Brady at the 2000 combine workout, you'd have thought he was auditioning for a role in a musical about gay milkmen.

Taibbi then goes on to mention Kurt Warner, Matt Cassell and Rich Gannon as late-round / undrafted prospects who made it big.  He also finishes Rule 6 with a gem of a quote:

Do like Bill Parcells does and use your high-round picks for real men: left tackles and pass rushers.

Outstanding.

Before you jump all over this idea, hear me out:

1. Financially, a Defensive Tackle doesn't make sense. Per John Clayton, ESPN NFL Analyst:

"If Suh or McCoy is the top pick, either player will command a contract in the $12 million-a-year range. Teams would rather pay that for quarterbacks, left tackles or pass-rushing defensive ends who can produce sacks."

And John Thornton, a former DT who was coached by Schwartz, agrees:

"I wouldn't spend a pick that high on a (defensive) tackle."

Note: This is the same rationale that will ultimately force the Rams to take a QB 1st overall, much like Detroit last year.

2. Selecting Okung would improve two positions on our offensive line. Jeff Backus is an above-average Left Tackle, and if kicked inside I see no reason why he can't be an above-average Left Guard. Schwartz has hinted that moving Backus to Left Guard is a possibility they're comfortable with:

"He can play left tackle, he can play left guard," Schwartz said. "If that's something he ends up doing, I think he could do either one. But I have a lot of comfort level with him - we all do - from the standpoint of he's very, very consistent, he's very durable. ... You add all those things up, you'll find a place for that guy to play."

3. Moving Backus, who will turn 33 in September, inside to Left Guard has the added benefit of potentially extending his career.

4. Most importantly, an investment in the offensive line helps protect the Lions largest investment, QB Matthew Stafford. The number one reason quarterbacks bust is due to lack of protection.

I'll wrap things up by saying that I'd love to see Suh or McCoy in a Lions uniform, but due to the rationale listed above I'll understand if they select Russell Okung 2nd overall on April 22nd.

So after reading the ESPN QB Formula article, I was wondering what the stats would be for the QBs currently on our roster, any QBs who we may be targeting in Free Agency, and the QBs we could potentially draft.  If that formula has any weight to it, then Graham Harrell might warrant a closer look.  Go to the link below to check out what I came up with (click to enlarge):

Note: I was unable to exactly match the numbers from the ESPN article for unknown reasons.  If anyone notices any discrepancies just let me know with a post and I'll update my workbook.  (You may need to expand your browsers window to view the entire picture so that the image isn't distorted)...

QBs on our current roster are highlighted blue, potential FA QBs are highlighted red.