Not sure about everyone else but I'm getting a bit worried by all the navel gazing that seems to be going on here.

We have just made the playoffs, for the first time in 6 years. OK we backed in and we hardly made it in style but to listen to some of you anyone would think we had already been blownout to the Steelers. I keep hearing how we should fire Fox, fire McCoy, dump Tebow, draft XYZ, sign Flynn etc. Now these concerns may or may not have validity but newsflash chaps - the season is not yet over. Can we discuss all this once/if (and I emphasize the "if") the Broncos playoffs end before the Superbowl....?

My goodness I've never seen such pessism. I'm not denying that we stunk it up big time against the Chiefs. And the fault for that could and should be laid at the door of many of the players and the staff. And I also acknowledge that if we play like that on Sunday we will lose - the Steelers are too good and too experienced.

But can we not muster at least some positivity? I'm not a kool aid drinker and I'm usually pretty realistic about Denver's chances. But I'm concerned that if the Bronco's fanbase is so pessimistic before we've even played a game in the playoffs than the chances of getting any sort of homefield advantage via the crowd will disappear - that's if we don't give it away by selling all the tickets to Steelers fans in the first place.

Come on chaps - I'm a great believer in free speech as I am sure all you Americans are proudly and rightly are as well. If you really want to disect and predict the postseason now then fine go ahead.

But can't we just wait a little longer.....:)

 

Hello Chaps

While most of us here across the pond are getting excited over some silly royal wedding, the more discerning of us Brits are getting all worked up over the far more important event of the week, namely the NFL draft. Even better I've managed to pack the wife off for the evening and with the whole of Britain off work tomorrow thanks to Wills and Kate I can stay up into the early hours and watch the 1st round unfold. Truly we live in happy times.

One of the things I am most excited about this year for our Broncos is the early 2nd round pick. I can't wait to see which high value players fall out of the 1st round, but how do we really know which players are steals and which are reaches?
 
I'm a great believer in the "wisdom of crowds" (some of you have read that book) and it seems to me that rather than rely on one person's opinion (Maycock, Cherpinksy, Scott Wright, Kieper etc) I think it makes more sense to try and calculate an average BPA across multiple sources. This helps to average out scouting errors and hopefully build a better picture by combining the expertise.
 
I thought therefore it would be fun to put together a compilation of the Top 50 players to allow some sort of BPA analysis as the draft progresses.
 
In order to build this list I went through the Top 100 lists of multiple sources.
Namely: CBS Sports, NFLDraftCountdown, About Football, NFL Draftboard Insider, NFL Draft scout, NFL Draftdog, Consensus Draft Services & FF Toolbox. I then averaged out the position score for each player.
 
So the following list is compiled from at least 8 "experts". Is it more likely to predict busts, steals, reaches etc? Possibly, although I won't make such bold claims at this point. We all know that NFL scouting is a difficult game. I hope I can hold onto this info and in a few years time compare this list to the individual lists and see who comes closer to predicting success/failure.
 
I was concerned prior to doing this was that these Top 100 lists would not be compiled with true independent objectivity, rather with every draft "expert" looking over his shoulder at everyone else's opinion and taking no chances, leading to flawed "group think". I don't think that has actually happened.  There does appear to be a wide discrepancy of opinion
 
So here is the list. 

 
Name
1. Patrick Peterson-CB      
2. Marcell Dareus-DT      
3. Von Miller-OLB   
4. AJ Green-WR     
5. Robert Quinn-DE
6. Nick Fairley-DT     
7. Julio Jones-WR   
8. Prince Amukamaura-CB   
9. Blaine Gabbert-QB
10. Da'Quan Bowers-DE
11. Cameron Jordan-DE
12. Tyron Smith-T
13. JJ Watt-DE     
14. Anthony Castonzo-T       
15. Cam Newton-QB
16. Aldon Smith-DE    
17. Gabe Carimi-T
18 Ryan Kerrigan-DE
19. Corey Liuget-DT 
20. Mark Ingram-RB
21. Nate Solder-T
22. Mike Pouncey-G
23. Adrian Clayborn-DE
24. Jimmy Smith-CB
25. Muhammad Wilkerson-DT
26. Jake Locker-QB
27. Derek Sherrod-T 
28. Phil Taylor-DT
29. Akeem Ayers-OLB
30. Cameron Heyward-DE
31. Ryan Mallett-QB
32. Kyle Rudolph-TE
33. Brandon Harris-CB
34. Stephen Paea-DT 
35. Marvin Austin-DT
36. Aaron Williams-CB
37. Mikel LeShoure-RB
38. Justin Houston-OLB
39. Brooks Reed-OLB
40. Danny Watkins-G
41. Christian Ponder-QB
42. Allen Bailey-DE
43. Martez Wilson-ILB
44. Jabaal Sheard-DE
45. Torrey Smith-WR
46. Bruce Carter-OLB
47. Ryan Williams-RB
48. Christian Ballard-DE
49. Leonard Hankerson-WR
50. Rodney Hudson-C
 
One thing that does strike me about this list - 18 out of the 50 players listed here are defensive lineman. That's incredible depth at that position. I really believe with our 2nd round pick we can pick up some nice 1st round talent.
 
Anyway hope some of you find this interesting and useful. Looking forward to a fun draft and I want to see no reaches and plenty of steals from EFX!
 
Go Broncos.

 

Am really curious to see what others here think would be the best result

Continue reading this post »

 

Hi Chaps

Below is a list of the entire Bronco roster as per Madden 10. This has all come out from the Madden community. EA have been trying to keep a bit of a lid on it - pereferring to release the ratings over a period of time, but various dedicated bloggers have made it difficult for them.

Obviously this is subject to change before release  , but it's indicative of where the EA developers see our squad and it's unlikey they are going to be swayed by emails asking for certain players to be upgraded. So I think we have to accpet that if you want to play Madden this year you are going to be playing with what can only be described as a mediocre Denver squad.

I predict a lot of you guys are not going to be happy with their evaluation of our talent! Overall we have the 4th worst squad on average in the league according to EA. Which is a bit silly. But at the end of the day it's their opinion and it's up to the Broncos to earn their respect next season.

That said there are some shocking ratings - namely Doom & Larsen on defense, Ryan Harris on offense - all three have been robbed. I would also question Kuper & Sheffler's rather average ratings. I would possibly argue however that they have possibly overrated Marshall, Dawkins (sorry!) and A. Davis.  But that's a subject for  seperate and rather more detailed post I am planning on the DVOA ratings once the Football Outsiders Almanac comes out.

Bear in mind the player ratings are more spread out then previous incantations of Madden, to emphasise the difference beytween the elite and the average players.

I'll need to sit down with all 32 rosters to analyse exactly how our players have got on. That might take some work and I thought some of you might be interested in seeing it all now.

So for those of you that play Madden and care about these ratings then let the debate begin!

 

Denver Broncos

 

Position	Name	OVR
QB	K. Orton	74
QB	C. Simms	66
QB	T. Brandstater	60
RB	K. Moreno	81
RB	C. Burkhalter	78
RB	JJ Arrington	73
RB	L. Jordan	66
FB	P. Hillis	84
WR	B. Marshall	92
WR	E. Royal	82
WR	J. Gaffney	74
WR	B. Stokley	71
WR	C. Jackson	56
TE	D. Graham	83
TE	T. Scheffler	79
TE	R. Quinn	69
OL	R. Clady	88
OL	C. Wiegmann	87
OL	B. Hamilton	81
OL	C. Kuper	78
OL	R. Harris	73
OL	K. Lichtensteiger	71
OL	S. Olsen	69
OL	B. Gorin	68
OL	T. Polumbus	67
OL	P. Murray	63
OL	L. Paxton	62
DL	K. Peterson	72
DL	M. Thomas	71
DL	R. Fields	71
DL	D. Reid	70
DL	T. Crowder	66
DL	E. Dumervil	65
DL	M. Askew	64
DL	N. Clemons	61
LB	D.J. Williams	86
LB	A. Davis	75
LB	R. Ayers	74
LB	B. Bailey	68
LB	J. Moss	66
LB	N. Greisen	65
LB	S. Larsen	63
CB	C. Bailey	96
CB	A. Smith	76
CB	A. Goodman	76
CB	J. Bell	61
CB	J. Williams	58
S	B. Dawkins	92
S	D. McBath	72
S	R. Hill	72
S	J. Barrett	62
S	V. Fox	59
K	M. Prater	58
P	B. Kern	64

 

 

 

OK I liked most of our picks but I really am struggling with Ayers. Help me out here

A chap who is supposed to be one of the key men for getting at the QB he only got 3 sacks in his senior year. Now I don't know college football very well but that is not good is it?

Are there any Tennesse fans out there in Bronco land that can reassure me here? This guy has workout wonder written all over him.

I also notice this grading from nfl.com - OK one opinion - but it hardly inspires confidence.

Pass Rush: Ayers is really not a good pass rusher, more the type that will pressure the pocket than seal the deal and close on the QB. He lacks that explosive first step off the snap, but can vary his speed to get the offensive tackle off kilter. In 2008, he showed better body control and hand usage to avoid blocks and work around them to put pressure on the pocket. He still needs to utilize his array of moves more often in order to be effective. He has developed enough quickness to pressure, but has problems when he has to play off blocks when working inside (strength issues). GRADE: 6.1

Closing on the QB: Ayers can put good pressure on the pocket once he clears his blocker, but does take a wide loop at times. He needs to play with more consistent aggression, as he gets too reliant on his hand punch and can be locked out when that fails. He can deliver a knockout blow on the quarterback when coming off the edge, but just lacks the sudden moves to close and his adequate initial step is not going to have great success beating beats the quicker blockers off the snap at the NFL level. GRADE: 5.4

Instincts/Recognition: Overall, Ayers is a good athlete, who looks to be developing physically, but still needs strength development. He is better locating the ball on the move than when playing in-line, where he can beat double teams, but will get taken down due to poor awareness sidestepping low blocks. His production is decent against the pass, but better against the run. He needs to locate the ball better when working down the line, but when he gets into the backfield, he can zero in on his target. He has improved his ability to sniff out the play, but struggles vs. the double teams in passing situations due to just average overall body strength. GRADE: 5.5

I'm very concerned by this pick. BPA average had him around #30. I think we really reached here. I would have been happier seeing him taken in the second.

Just as well I love the Moreno pick isn't it!

 

Hello everyone from Limey Land across the Pond.

Thought I'd try a little long term experiment. But in the meantime hopefully some of you may find this interesting and/or useful when it comes to 2009 Draft day.

The basic principle here is that the draft is a bit of a crapshoot. We all know the "experts" get it wrong. So the idea here is to use the "wisdom of crowds" principle and try and average out some of the mistakes each indvidual scout may make.

This mitigates to some extent the ability of one expert to get it wrong, and I would venture is a better way of doing it then just working off one list,

So what you see below is an average of the Best Player Available compiled from:

WalterFootball

Drafttek

NFL DraftCountdown

NFL.com (CBS)

Pro Football Weekly

 All seemingly sound sites.

While conceptually simple putting it together took some time, so I've only done players likely to be 1-3rd rounders. In total I added up the scores for about 140 or so players. I hope you find it useful when considering who should be taken when/who is likely to be taken when. But even if you don't, I'm planning to use these on draft day to see which players in my own mind are value picks/reaches. I should add that I am a big believer in BPA wherever possible as a draft strategy (assuming they fit the relevent system of course).

What I wish I had done - and will do so next year, is compile a similar list next year before the Senior Bowl/Combines etc to complement the one done one week before the actual draft. My hypothesis is that what should really matter is college production, not artificial 40 times and/or one off games etc. What I think would be very interesting is comparing the two lists 4/5 years later and then having a look at which BPA list produced the most accurate prediction of actual NFL success.

As you can see I'm planning some long term research here…..:)

Caveats -

1. This is as much a scientific experiment to see if the scouts can get it right. I should add that I have not seen a single one of these guys play (we don't get College Football here in the UK), but that's not the point. I'm relying on the "experts" to tell me who to get! Lets see if they can collectively make a good stab at it.

2. This list was put together based on rankings 2 weeks ago on the respective sites. I notice some have changed since then. Quite frankly I find this silly. If you don't know the value of a player after years of production (or lack of) in college + performance in the Senior Bowl/Combine/Pro Day Workouts then what on earth has changed one week before the draft? Stil the Talking Bobbleheads get to fill column space talking about last minute risers etc.

 Anyway here's the list. Any comments gratefully received.

1.      Aaron Currey LB

2.      Matt Stafford QB

3.      Jason Smith OT

4.      Eugene Monroe OT

5.      Michael Crabtree WR

6.      Brian Orakpo DE

7.      Malcolm Jenkins CB/S

8.      Mark Sanchez QB

9.      BJ Raji NT

10.  Michael Oher OT

11.  Knowshon Moreno RB

12.  Tyson Jackson DE

13.  Jeremy Maclin WR

14.  Chris Wells RB

15.  Everette Brown DE

16.  Vontae Davis CB

17.  Rey Maluagua LB

18.  Andre Smith OT

19.  Brandon Pettigrew TE

20.  Brian Cushing LB

21.  Peria Jerry DT

22.  Josh Freeman QB

23.  Darius Heyward-Bey WR

24.  Darius Butler CB

25.  Clay Mathews OLB

26.  Percy Harvin WR

27.  James Laurantius LB

28.  Aaron Maybin OLB/DE

29.  Robert Ayers DE

30.  Don Brown RB

31.  Ebon Britton OT

32.  Kenny Britt WR

33.  Alex Mack C

34.  Larry English OLB/DE

35.  Evander Hood DT

36.  Alphonso Smith CB

37.  Hakeem Nicks WR

38.  Clint Simtim OLB/DE

39.  Brian Robiskie WR

40.  William Beatty OT

41.  Michael Johnson DE

42.  Louis Delmas S

43.  Max Unger C

44.  LeSean McCoy RB

45.  Sean Smith CB

46.  William Moore S

47.  Eric Wood C

48.  Ron Brace NT

49.  Connor Barwin OLB/TE

50.  Patrick Chung S

51.  Duke Robinson G

52.  Rashad Johnson  S

53.  Jarius Byrd CB

54.  Travis Beckum TE

55.  Phil Loadholt OT

56.  D.J.Moore CB

57.  Jared Cook TE

58.  Cornelius Ingram TE

59.  Jamon Meredith T

60.  Paul Kruger DE

61.  Juaquain Inglesis WR

62.  Andre Brown RB

63.  Derrick Williams WR

64.  Shawn Nelson TE

65.  Jaron Gilbert DE

66.  Fili Moala DT

67.  James Casey TE

68.  Marcus Freeman OLB

69.  Chase Coffman TE

70.  Sen'drick Marks DT

71.  Darry Beckwith ILB

72.  Shon Green RB

73.  Sherrod Martin S

74.  Lawrence Sidbury DE

75.  Cody Brown OLB

76.  Alex Magee DT

77.  Andy Levitre G

78.  Louis Murphy WR

79.  Chip Vaughn S

80.  Mike Thomas WR

81.  Kraig Urbik G

82.  Darcel McBath S

83.  Mohammed Massaquoi WR

84.  Gerald Cadogan OT

85.  Mike Mickens CB

86.  Pat White QB

87.  Coye Francis CB

88.  Asher Allen CB

89.  Victor Harris CB

90.  Brandon Gibson WR

91.  Rashad Jennings RB

92.  Michael Hamlin S

93.  Troy Kropog OT

94.  Kevin Barnes CB

95.  Tyrone McKenzie OLB

96.  Herman Johnson G

97.  Jonathan Luigs C

98.  Javon Ringer RB

99.  Antoine Caldwell C

100.Kennan Lewis CB

 Cheers!