SB Nation User Blog: Brock20

The Market for Closers: Trading Izzy?

Brock20 — Sat, 16 Jun 2007 17:23:59 -0000

    Erik's weekend main page post regarding selling echoed the opinions that have been bouncing around in my mind for quite some time. For the past ten years, the organization won enough and was in a place where buying at the trade deadline was the only option. Many of us fans have never known, or perhaps forgotten, the times when the Cardinals were sellers at the trade deadline.
    Rationally, we cannot view selling as giving up or surrender. In any infinite contest, there are times that the actors have to concede defeat for the moment if it provides a stronger tactical position at future date. Anyone who has run a business or been in a relationship understands this idea. In clichés it is referred to as "losing the battle, but winning the war." This strategy comes with a couple of limitations.
    First, is the perception of the fans and its impact on the revenue stream. A few weeks ago, in response to a pretty heated discussion of Elijah Dukes in which I participated, a community member posted a diary in which he/she maintained that Cardinals organization does not care what the fan thinks. I would maintain that argument is only half correct in that the Cardinals do care when it negatively impacts the amount of money that fans are spending on the Cardinals.
    The Baseball Prospectus gang have researched this issue in far more detail than I could ever imagine, and their conclusion is that the strongest factor on attendance is winning. If you build a winner, they will come. Their research also indicates that fan perception of winning also affects ticket sales; if fans believe an organization is not trying to win, then they will stay away. Anecdotally, I would suggest the Brewers as an example of the second hypothesis as the Brewers have grown ticket sales over the past three years as fans believe the team is building towards something.
    Any team considering selling is presented with a dilemma, sell now and potentially negatively impact ticket sales, merchandise sales, and general good will or sell and try to improve the team in the future and future revenue streams. While Busch Stadium is near capacity for the rest of the year, the organization is also concerned about getting people to attend the game as concessions are a larger contributor to the bottom line than actual ticket sales.
    The second factor affecting the decision to sell is the market for the pieces the team is willing to part with. Besides the obvious factor of the perceived value of the expendable player is also the demand for the given position and the supply of players at the given position. A buying team is less likely to consider a teams demands when it has multiple potential trade partners who are selling the same piece.
    The recent acquisition of Troy Percevial sparked many rumors about an impending departure of Izzy. Izzy's contract status, his recent successes, and his track record make him an ideal target for such rumors and he would probably attract some interest on the open market. Setting aside the issue of whether the Cardinals should trade Izzy, let us look at the two known factors: the demand for a closer and the supply of closers that could be moved at the trade deadline.
    Teams shopping for closers will have quite a few options to choose from. The Rangers have apparently already made it know that Eric Gagne and Otsaka are available. The Nationals seem to always have Chad Cordero on the market, while the Colorado Rockies are probably going to shop Brian Fuentes. Price being equal, most teams would probably opt for Fuentes who has been extremely effective throughout his career and through this season.
    Demand at this point is tougher to gauge as it is still relatively early in the season. There are a few teams that are definite contenders that could use closer improvements. For a rough measurement of a team's relative "contender" status, I am going to use Clay Davenport of BP's Monte Carlo simulation. Davenport sims out the season one million times and then generates a report on the percentage of times a team wins their division, wins the wild card or makes the playoffs. I'm going to use the last stat, percentage of times the team makes the playoffs, As we saw last year, anything can happen once you get to the dance.
    Gauging the effectiveness of a closer is a far more debatable task. Without going into the great debate save, I'll just say that for a rough estimation I looked at WHIP and blown saves. My theory on this is that a bad closer puts people on base and that generates more potential for saves, and thus ball games, to be blown. Again, I'm not saying that the following guys are the worst closers or my measurement is the best, its designed to generate a list of teams that might be interested.
The Detroit Tigers (Davenport playoff expectancy 60%) are a prime candidate to add bullpen help before the trade deadline. Their closer, Todd Jones, has been at best mediocre with a 1.64 WHIP, batters are hitting .293 against him this year. His two backups, Fernando Rooney and flamethrower Joel Zumaya have both been beset by injuries. Add into the mix the fact that the Tigers have no major weaknesses at any other position and they look like serious bullpen buyers at the trade deadline.
    The Cleveland Indians (70% playoff) have had problems with the closer position as well. Joe Borowski, has been mediocre in the position (batters are hitting .294 against him) but a bullpen that features a lot of young pitchers tagged with the closer in waiting tag (Betancourt, Mastny) has yet to have someone step up and take the mantle from Joe-Bo. Like the Tigers, they have few noticeable other hole, with the possible exception of another frontline starter. Betancourt has been effective with a .180 BAA and 1.11 WHIP, but I question whether a organization and city so desperate for a championship will had the closer's job to a journeyman pitcher.
    Third, the Atlanta Braves are currently on the bubble as a buyer, 2.5 games behind the New York Mets. The Braves could look to add an arm to a bullpen that lost Mike Gonzalez to injury and features middle of the road Bob Wickman at closer. Wickman, who perpetually seems to be in danger of losing his job regardless of the team he plays for, has blown only three saves but sports a mediocre .253 BAA. The Braves could consider promoting set-up man Rafael Soriano (.129 BAA) to the role. (Personal Note: Schurholz could also consider recalling Joey Devine from AA. I saw Devine a couple nights ago in person and he looked very, very good, striking out the side on 12 pitches. Devine's three quarters release point is very deceptive to hitters and allows him to put good movement on the ball.)
    A fourth, but definitely more speculative possible suitor is the Oakland A's (50% playoff odds). Any dealing with Oakland A's is resplendent with story lines, chief among them is that Izzy came to the Cardinals from the A's and the much maligned last trade between the A's: which involved Mark Mulder for Danny Haren and Daric Barton. Since a season injury to Huston Street a few weeks back, the A's have used Alan Embree at closer and have discussed using starter Rich Harden in the role.
    The major question when considering the A's is Billy Beane. Beane is a notoriously difficult dealer and one of the first general managers to realize that hording prospects is the only way to build a successful small market team. What he will be willing to give up for a position that he believes to be overvalued is anyone's guess.
    With five closers for 2.75 openings, it will be a buyer's market for closers. The availability of arms will probably drive down the price of the available talent. Any team looking to sell would probably be best served to move quickly our possess an advantage over the other sellers: short contract, low contract, or your player is a lefty (which gives the Rockies an advantage over the other sellers.) The market for Izzy might not be as strong as we believe, or the market for another player might mean his movement at the deadline.
    Let us assume for a moment that the Cardinals do opt to sell Izzy. Setting aside the fan reaction/revenue stream analysis that I do not have the market data or knowledge to do, from a strictly baseball perspective they would do best to move immediately and beat the Rangers, Rockies, and Nationals to the market. That way the Cardinals would be able to set the market rate and would have their choice of suitors.

First Game at Yankee Stadium....

Brock20 — Sun, 27 May 2007 17:57:33 -0000

Just visiting from vivaelbirdos, the SB Nation Cardinal blog. I just moved to Connecticut, and am looking to get down to the Stadium this summer for a game. I checked tickets on line and found that tickets are available in the $19 nosebleed section. Before I buy them, I just wanted to make sure that I can move around and actually see the stadium if I have a ticket there. Or am I locked into the upper deck with no movement at all.

Any tips or things I should know?

Thanks!

Live Report from Paw Sox vs. Durham Bulls Game....

Brock20 — Wed, 16 May 2007 22:20:57 -0000

Went to the game at McCoy Stadium today. Jason Hammel, whom John gave a grade of C+ to, took the mound for the visiting Durham Bulls, while Abe Alvarez went for the home team. The final pitching lines don't tell the whole story.

Hammel's best pitch is clearly his fastball, which he touched 97 with in the second inning and was hitting low 90s in the fourth still. He worked out of some trouble in I believe the second or third and threw a couple good breaking balls for ground ball outs. His curveball and change abondened him in the fouth inning and hence the huge spot the Paw Sox put up on him. He pitched better than his line would suggest I would say. I cannot but help to think that he would make a better power reliver if he can develop a set up pitch for what's a pretty nice fast ball.

Alvarez, I don't think anyone considers him for much of anything now, except maybe a AAA roster filler. So, I won't spend too much on him. Way up in the zone that lead to him getting hit HARD. He got lucky that a lot of well hit balls found mits.

Ben Zobrist DHed. He signed an autograph for me early, which required some effort from him. McCoy, as some of your probably know, is elevated so the stands are not on the field. Some fans use buckets and strings to get autograph items to players below. I threw Ben a ball and he signed it. Stuggling mightly at AAA, but tatooed a ball on the second pitch of the game that Alvarez left up. Sometimes its tough to remember that guys at AAA, even if they suck there, are great athletes and will capitalize on mistakes.

Jacoby Ellisbury had a great ten pitch at bat to lead off the first. He showed some good pitch recognition in that at bat, though it ended with a fly out to mid left. Still, a well managed AB that ended with a firmly struck ball. The other two ABS that I saw, he topped the ball into the dirt and towards first, one of which resulted in a 3-4-3 double play. He didn't look as fast as most commentators say he is.

I'll try to put some pictures up on Flickr this week.

So those are my notes. A great way to spend a day off. McCoy Stadium, at least on my first visit is a great traditional ball park. They minimize the silliness and don't blare music to drown out all your thoughts.

Unrelated question. Can someone tell me the last newsletter John sent out? Cause I don't think I've been getting mine. Before I bother him or his wife, I want to check.

Poll

Best Reason to go to a MiLB Game?

The crazy promotions.

2 votes

See the stars of tomorrow, today!

16 votes

Local culture.

2 votes

Cheap night out.

11 votes

31 votes | Poll has closed

Minor League Road Trip: Tell me about your city!

Brock20 — Tue, 15 May 2007 22:35:27 -0000

Gang:

In a couple weeks, I'm heading off on my annual minor league road trip. This year its six games in six days with stops in Springfield (Missouri), Memphis, Little Rock, Montgomery, Birminingham, and Louisville. I'm hoping that those of you that either live in, frequent, or know about these towns can help me out with some great info. I'm looking for:

Cool musuems, historic locations, or generally touristy stuff to do. (So my what I did on my summer vacation report can be some what educational!)
Restaurants and bars. Where do the locals eat? What's the MUST place to dine. Also, we need some place to drink after the game. My group tends to like multitude of beers on tap, good juke box, and a nice place to talk and watch the end of the West Coast game.
Micro-breweries? Breweries? Anything along those lines?
Where should we stay? Location, not neccesarily specific hotel will do.

I've been to Memphis quite a bit, so I know a lot about that city. But, I'm always looking for new places and sites. In Louisville, we are going to the Slugger factory, so I know that.

Other than that, feel free to let me know!

Road Trip Through Cardinal Nation....

Brock20 — Tue, 08 May 2007 20:42:35 -0000

Greetings all. In less than a month, I'll be heading out on version 2.5 of my hopefully annual minor league baseball trip. The first version was a quick Memorial Day weekend trip to Memphis to see the Redbirds, where my brother, my cousin and I got a chance to see an Anthony Reyes start. The second trip took us to Huntsville, Memphis, Nashville, and Knoxville. Six games, five days, four parks.
This year, in addition to adding one of my best friends, we are going even bigger. Six games, six parks, six days. This is where I need help from all of you, the outposts of Cardinal Nation. Our trip takes us to: Springfield, Missouri; Memphis, Little Rock, Birmingham, Montgomery, and Louisville. What can you tell me about your city? Where are the places to eat? Places to see? Places to go after the game? Places to stay close to all of the above?
I'm pretty familiar with Memphis, so I don't need as much help with that one. Though, I am always looking for an off the beaten path addition. I've only been through the other stops, so you have carte blanche. We're looking for local places, great restaurants, good bars, breweries, brew pubs, whatever the "must." is in your town.

Thanks.

Poll

Which Cardinal affiliate would you most like to catch a game at?

Springfield (See the future....today!!!)

18 votes

Palm Beach (Sun... and some young pitchers.)

4 votes

Quad Cities (I hear Davenport is lovely this time of year.)

3 votes

Johnson City (I love the mountains and single A ball.)

4 votes

Memphis (Bar B Que Nachos....hhhmmmmmm......)

22 votes

Batavia (I HEART NEW YORK!!!)

2 votes

53 votes | Poll has closed

MLB Opening Day Marketing Plan....

Brock20 — Sun, 25 Mar 2007 00:12:34 -0000

I started writing this last week, on the first day of the NCAA tournament. Sorry for its length.

I am glued to the television, watching the NCAA Tournament on what I believe to be the two "must watch" days of the sports calendar. However, my enthusiasm for the great television is dampened a bit as I think how baseball fails to generate similar interest in opening day. Baseball caters to the already dedicated fan, though the recent Direct TV deal makes me question that, and fails to attract the casual fan. In short, they are squandering a perfect opportunity to build the fan base.

Before I outline my proposal, let me address a few of the critiques immediately. First, I am not foolish enough to believe that opening day can acquire the cache and the viewers that the tournament generates. The NCAA tournament is something special and it has a couple of key advantages: 1) the tournament is one and done, which leads to increased drama. 2) The tournament is focused on college sports, which generate an intense loyalty by alumni and non-alumni that live in the team's market. 3) The tournament's egalitarian nature plays into America's myth that through hard work one can succeed. Every team has an equal chance to win the tournament, but the odds are obviously longer for some than others. Setting all those aside, baseball could better format opening day to generate more hype, and as a direct result more fans and increased ticket revenue.

Programming

Any discussion of marketing must begin with media. To facilitate the opening day event mentality, baseball needs to develop programming to broadcast all the games played on opening day. CBS has turned this into an art form. They have crews assigned to all of the tournaments opening day games, with the default game being either A) a regional match up or B) a national game of interest, i.e. one that will draw ratings. During that broadcast, CBS cuts in with updates from other games, building viewer interest in that second game. If your default game gets boring, or becomes a forgone conclusion, they cut to the back up game or another game that is close.

Baseball could do something similar, with a broadcast on national free TV. The first game on opening day starts at 1:05 Eastern time. The broadcast could begin at 12:00, and could include season previews, interviews and special events, which I will discuss later. MLB needs to create a package of personal interviews and player previews so that viewers can get to know other players outside of the Yankees and Red Sox. My suggestions would be: "Future Fish: The Young Florida Marlins" or "Alex Gordon: ROY Candidate" or "Vernon Wells: The Best Player You've Never Heard Of" or "The Chicago Cubs: Does Money Mean It Is Their Year." The list is really endless.

Once the games go live, MLB should adopt the primary game, and secondary game approach. Each region should receive a local team, NO BLACK OUTS. Assuming there is any fiscal cost in putting the game up for free, consider it an investment for the future, an effort to build the base. When a game gets out of hand, or intense moment develops an another game, cut to that game. Imagine, "Let's go out to Atlanta where John Smoltz has one out, two on, and Ryan Howard stepping to the dish. Howard, the defending MVP is looking to tie this ball game." Baseball has an inherent advantage because there is no half time, so no real time to fill. In between the main games, go to a sports center type desk with analysts and interviews. The guys who are good quotes, let them develop their star power through features or interviews.

The national evening game should be the defending world champions. I like that you book the defending champs against the team they beat in their league championship. Keep that. You've squandered good TV the past few years by not showing the victors receive their rings. Granted, Boston went overboard and gave everyone in the greater Boston area a ring, but it was touching to see guys like Johnny Pesky come out and get a ring. Chicago's ceremony was nice as well as they broke a streak LONGER than the Red Sox. I know that the Cardinal fans will be equally appreciative and ruckus, show that. Let people see that ball games are fun, that they are an event. You do not do enough of that.

The second component is the atmosphere at the stadium. Football learned this along time a go. You need to build a party atmosphere with cache to get more than the hardcore fans to watch and attend. Somebody, I want to think it was on this blog, said "The NFL can build a stage during halftime of the Super Bowl, put Prince on it, but MLB cannot put a working mic in front of John Mellencamp for one acoustic song!"

Before the games even start, baseball should have the kickoff party like the NFL does each year. Two cities, dueling concerts. I would choose bands closely identified with their cities. For example, let Aerosmith rock out from Landsdowne Street, right out in front of Fenway. Also, baseball, for the love of everyone below forty, you need to expand out from the middle age rocker/ country artist demographic. Here's an idea: hold a Fall Out Boy conference from one of the roof top decks across from Wrigley. (Don't slam me, not a Fall Out Boy fan, but it was the first band I thought that met both the city and youngish requirement.) In later years, you can expand the concept to other cities, so that perhaps each city has a concert before hand.

I'm Bringing Cincy Back!

One last thing I want to talk about is a dirty secret about which you refuse to talk. In the name of making a couple extra bucks, you stole the right to hold the first game from Cincinnati. For a sport that likes to bath itself in tradition as core tenant of its marketing plan, that's hypocritical. Give Cincinnati back opening day, and do it in grand style. Make opening day in Cincinnati the second most important event in your calendar after the World Series. (Sorry, the All-Star game will never be that.) I have generated a couple of ideas about this possibility.

*    Embrace the baseball geeks. We are your best advocates because no matter how hard you try to wring us, we come back. To that end, embrace fantasy baseball and the sports memorabilia market. There are companies that sponsor destination drafts; people travel many miles to put up serious money for serious fantasy baseball competition. Join that market. If you are afraid of the possible gambling aspects, offer prizes that only you can offer: after hours tours of the Hall of Fame with a Hall of Famer of the person's choice, the chance to throw out the first pitch at the World Series, whatever, but have those drafts opening weekend in Cincinnati.
*    Sports Memorabilia conference. In conjunction with the fantasy drafts, put together one of the largest sports memorabilia shows in the country. Line up personal appearances and autograph sessions by a slew of legends. I know that the MLBPA alumni group is active in fundraising for impoverished former players. They did an autograph mail in fundraiser. Work with them to set this up. As a Cards fan, if I could go to one place and get Musial, Brock, Gibson, Sutter, and Red in one day, I would be there.
*    International Futures Game: I enjoy the Futures Game, but it gets less coverage than the Kenny Mayne softball game. Move it to the Sunday before opening day, to take advantage of the focused attention on baseball. The growing international aspect of the game should be showcased through a US vs. The World format. Let each team send one squad member, but then take the players that excelled last year at their given level. If a player has rookie eligibility, and they are not on the opening day roster, they are eligible to play in the game.
*    Fan Fest: I know this idea will get a lot of critics, but its become the event de jour. I have addressed marketing to the baseball purists, but have not brought to the table anything for the casual fan. Fan fests provides events and activities for the casual fan, and more importantly for kids. The fan fest could be held at the newly renovated convention center, which I didn't even know about when I began this diary! http://www.cincyusa.com/ Make it an all ages baseball party. Oh, and those musicians that you invite to regularly do events, let them perform here so you can still rock out to those musicians you seem to like so much.
*    The first pitch of the season. Cincinnati gets it. No Sunday night game to start the season. The season starts in Cincinnati. Let the other stadiums get in on the action, and have them show the pitch on the jumbotron. It will be baseball's equivalent of "Gentlemen start your engines!"

I say all of this out of love. Tough love maybe, but it hurts to see MLB taking short term gains and not developing anything that resembles a long term vision. Hopefully, baseball will take these small steps towards developing and growing the fan base.

Dice-K's First Start....

Brock20 — Fri, 02 Mar 2007 23:28:02 -0000

I thought I would post this because someone would probably be interested.

Dice-K's first inning...

First batter: College kid lines a double down the first baseline on the first pitch. Straight fastball down the middle.

Second batter: First pitch: outside called strike. Second pitch, low strike, which the batter check swings into the dirt right in front of JV, out 2-3.

Third batter: First pitch, curve ball for a strike. Second pitch: fastball inside, called strike (questionable in my op.) Third pitch, a slight sinker, outside, fouled off. Fourth pitch: fastball clocked at 92 mph, outside, called third strike (another questionable call.)

Fourth batter: First pitch: FB outside. Second pitch: FB, fouled down 3Bline. Third pitch: low in the dirt. Fourth pitch: FB, inside. Called third strike.

Overall impressions: Very efficent arm movement. Dice-K gets a couple of questionable strike calls and learns not to say your first pitch will be a fastball.

He's supposed to throw a second inning. I'll report back on that.

Fantasy Baseball: A Bigger Challenge....

Brock20 — Fri, 16 Feb 2007 22:56:00 -0000

Well, just when I thought I was out, it sucked me back in. I wasn't going to compete with you all this year for many reasons, none which had to do with any of you. But then, I started to miss my NL only keeper league, and thought that maybe this would be a little different.

So, I went and setup an NL only league on Yahoo that should go very, very deep as it has the tradtional postions: 2 Cs, CI, MI, and FIVE OFs. It won't be a keeper league, just don't want to take that on.

Its a standard 5X5 roto league except I changed BA to OBP. Why? Because it opens up more guys to being valueable.

So, I'm looking for a few NL diehards who cringe at the thought of a DL. I'll also accept guys who are looking for a new challenge. Please, if this is your first league, I'd suggest going elsewhere as a NL only league this deep will be pretty patience testing.

If you are interested, I got a Saturday afternoon draft time for March 10 starting at 3:30 central.

Email me and I'll send you the information. Also, if you played last year with us, I'll give you first dibs.

Minor League Fantasy Draft

Brock20 — Sat, 03 Feb 2007 01:58:55 -0000

Here are the results from a brand new 5X5 fantasy league of which I am member. Rather than just posting the draft and letting people have at it, I thought I would go through my picks, give my rationale, and let people have some insight into my thought process. I do NOT profess to be an expert, just a guy that likes baseball, watching it, reading about it, playing fantasy versions of it. I figure there are couple guys like me in each of your leagues, so I thought doing a show my hand diary might be more useful than just posting this list and moving along. Also, it will be helpful for me to hear comments about my draft.

My thought processes and biases. This is the first time that I've done a minor league draft. An NL only league does a mini, two round draft each year. So, this draft is already four times deeper than that. Plus, my bias is NL guys since I've been reading about them for the past three or four years to keep up with that league. Either because of my bias or something else, I ended up with all NL players.

My second bias is that I wanted to gravitate towards guys who were close to ready or projectable. Again repeating that I'm not expert, I trusted the guys who are. For the first seven rounds, I did NOT have John's book. However, I had complied his newsletters together and had taken all the guys he ranked B+ or higher and made a list of them. I then compared that against Kevin Goldstein's lists at BP, to determine consensus rankings. After I had those, I compared them against the PECOTA numbers. I used PECOTA only to break out and not ties, or at least ties in my mind.

2007 SCFBL Minor League Draft Order
Round 1

Chris: Delmon Young, OF, TB

Matt: Alex Gordon, 3B, KC

Nik: Philip Hughes, SP, NYY

Scott: Brandon Wood, SS, LAA

Jesse: Homer Bailey, SP, CIN

Zach: Matt Garza, SP, MIN

Jason: Chris Young, OF, ARI

Mike: Justin Upton, OF, ARI

Ryan: Billy Butler, OF, KC

JJ: Mike Pelfrey, SP, NYM

Kenny: Cameron Maybin, OF, DET

Stephen: Evan Longoria, 3B, TB

Round 2

Stephen: Andrew McCutchen, OF, PIT

Kenny: Tim Lincecum, SP, SF

JJ: Hunter Pence, OF, HOU

Ryan: Jay Bruce, OF, CIN

Mike: Scott Elbert, SP, LAD

Jason: Ryan Braun, 3B, MIL

Zach: Andrew Miller, SP, DET

Jesse: Andy LaRoche, 3B, LAD

Scott: Troy Tulowitzki, SS, COL

Nik: Yovani Gallardo, SP, MIL

Matt: Luke Hochevar, SP, KC

Chris: Adam Miller, SP, MIN

Round 3

Chris: Felix Pie, OF, CHC

Matt: Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, BOS

Nik: Carlos Gonzalez, OF, ARI

Scott: Reid Brignac, SS, TB

Jesse: Elijah Dukes, OF, TB

Zach: Fernando Martinez, OF, NYM

Jason: Clayton Kershaw, SP, LAD

Mike: Gaby Sanchez, 1B, FLA

Ryan: Joey Votto, 1B, CIN

JJ: Joe Koshansky, 1B, COL

Kenny: Jose Tabata, OF, NYY

Stephen: Donald Veal, SP, CHC

Round 4

Stephen: Chris Iannetta, C, COL

Kenny: Chuck Lofgren, SP, CLE

JJ: Josh Fields, 3B, CHW

Ryan: Billy Rowell, 3B, BAL

Mike: Adam Lind, TOR, OF

Jason: Colby Rasmus, OF, STL

Zach: Clay Buchholz, SP, BOS

Jesse: Travis Snider, OF, TOR

Scott: William Inman, SP, MIL

10.Nik: James Loney, 1B, LAD

Matt: Eric Hurley, SP, TEX

Chris: Brandon Erbe, SP, BAL

Round 5

Chris: Erick Aybar, SS, LAA

Matt: Adam Jones, OF, SEA

Nik: Jeff Niemann, SP, TB

Scott: Nick Adenhart, SP, LAA

Jesse: Philip Humber, SP, NYM

Zach: Lars Anderson, 1B, BOS

Jason: Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C, ATL

Mike: Ryan Sweeney, OF, CWS

Ryan: Jacob McGee, SP, TB

JJ: Chris Volstad, SP, FLA

Kenny: Angel Villalona, 3B, SF

Stephen: Eric Campbell, INF, ATL

Round 6

Stephen: Kevin Slowey, SP, MIN

Kenny: Humberto Sanchez, SP, NYY

JJ: Carlos Carrasco, SP, PHI

Ryan: Brad Lincoln, SP, PIT

Mike: Brandon Morrow, SP, SEA

Jason: Eric Patterson, 2B, CHC

Zach: Mark Pawalek, SP, CHC

Jesse: Joba Chamberlain, SP, NYY

Scott: Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B, SD

10.Nik: Dustin Pedroia, 2B, BOS

Matt: Michael Bowden, SP, BOS

Chris: Elvis Andrus, SS, ATL

Round 7

Chris: Chris Carter, 1B, ARI

Matt: Bryce Cox, RP, BOS

Nik: Daniel Bard, SP, BOS

Scott: Brent Lillibridge, SS, ATL

Jesse: Daric Barton, 1B, OAK

Zach: Jeff Clement, C, SEA

Jason: Taylor Tankersley, RP, FLA

Mike: Russ Ohlendorf, SP, NYY

Ryan: Dexter Fowler, OF, COL

JJ: Jeff Baker, OF, COL

Kenny: Dellin Betances, SP, NYY

Stephen: Franklin Morales, SP, COL

Round 8

Stephen: Chris Parmelee, OF, MIN

Kenny: Ian Stewart, 3B, COL

JJ: Billy Sadler, SP, SF

Ryan: Pat Neshek, RP, MIN

Mike: John Danks, SP, CHW

Jason: Miguel Montero, C, ARI

Zach: Wade Davis, SP, TB

Jesse: Freddy Guzman, OF, TEX

Scott: Jonathan Sanchez, SP, SF

Nik: Jeremy Hellickson, SP, TB

Matt: Micah Owings, SP, ARI

Chris: Jeff Samardzija, SP, CHC

Round #1: Pick: Chris Young: Rationale: In the first round, I wanted a player that was ready to step in and play. Our keeper system is such that you get the guy for free for three years, or two after the season in which they lose rookie status. I like the speed and power combination that Young provides. Arizona will be better than they were last year, and so he should have more RBI opportunities and score more runs. That said, the west coast parks suppress power. In his first season, I'll settle for a 4th outfielder numbers from him and think he'll get 15-15 at least, and 20-20 probably.
I also considered: Tim Lincecum. I had him down as the best pitching prospect for a 5X5 league. I didn't him take because of two reasons: A) It didn't keep with my philosophy to lock up "a sure thing" in the first round and B) My experience, which proved true later on, is that pitching prospects are always available in later rounds.
Round #2: Pick: Ryan Braun. Rationale: 20-20 potential again. I must admit that I've man crushed Ryan Braun since I saw him play last year at Huntsville. The guy can flat out hit, and hit for power. He runs the bases well, picks his spots to steal, and on top of that, he's a third baseman! (Ok, maybe not for much longer.) I can tolerate a move to a corner OF position for a 20-20 guy that I believe has a shot at hitting .300.
I also considered. Yovani Gallardo, Tulo, and Andy LaRoche. The will he or won't he develop power scared me off Tulo very early. Watching the pitching that went and the order it went, I was not wholly convinced that Yovani might bounce back to me. Pipe dream, probably, but there were a handful of quality pitchers still available, who were only a slight notch below Gallardo. This became a debate over Andy LaRoche and Ryan Braun. I read almost every post in which either was mentioned, read and re-read the major sources on each, and then went and consulted a Ouija Board. (Did you know Ouija is Microsoft's spell checker? Cultish influence runs DEEEEEEP!) Finally, I went with Braun because of the better speed and LaRoche's slight injury concerns. Honestly, this one could have went either way, except for my man crush.

Round #3: Pick: Clayton Kershaw. Seriously, do I need to justify this one? I would say that I was considering others, but I wasn't. I thanked my lucky stars and ran.

Round #4: Pick: Colby Rasmus: My other bias is sometimes I try too hard not to look like a homer. Colby is in the second tier of outfield prospects that should, if they perform as they should, break into A or A- grades next year. The speed and power combination is just too much to pass up. Plus, he's only twenty. I tried to spread this picks out in terms of distance from the majors. He's the best prospect that was on the board at the time. I tried to make a case for Travis Snider, but it just wasn't there for me.

Round #5: Pick: Salty. Geez, how the mighty have fallen! Two years ago, guys were offering ridiculous trades to try to get the number one pick to take Salty. Now, he falls to round five? I'm not going to bore you with my thoughts on Salty, but I think he still has it and will probably be traded for some pitching help during the season.
I also considered Eric Campbell and Angel Villalona, who both went later in the round. I though at my position it was too early for both. I might regret making that decision. Also, in about round number 3 I started playing a game with Kevin Kouzmanoff. Here it accelerated to full steam. Part of the game was to see how truly low he would go. Then again, part of me was screaming to take him, hold him in reserve, and trade him to someone when their third baseman goes down for the season.

Round #6: Pick: Eric Patterson. Brad Lincoln and Morrow disappeared right before my eyes and Patterson was left. I actually like Patterson a lot, and believe that he will get a call up during the summer to take over second, when Jacque Jones is dealt, probably again for pitching. See round five for my who I thought about taking, because Kouz was still there and I was seriously considering him. Why didn't I move on him? Patterson plays second, which there aren't that many great fantasy second baggers out there, so there is low requirement to be a valueable fantasy player. Possible .300 hitter and 30 steals exceeds that requirement by juuuuust a smidge. Plus, I have Braun, why do I need another third baseman.

Round #7: Pick: Taylor Tankersley. I am so smart, S-M-R-T. I had been plotting this pick since at least the fourth round, again playing fantasy chicken. Unlike Kouz, I thought I might actually pull this one off because Tankersley is not on the top 100 of ANY prospect list, and probably doesn't deserve to be. However, he's going to have a legitimate shot at closing in Florida, and that's worth a seventh round pick for me. I'm joking about being so smart, I just thought this was the right time to pull the trigger on a good opportunity.
I considered Franklin Morales here, but I'm just scared of Colorado pitchers. I believe humidors are best for Don Tomas maduros, one of the finest inexpensive cigars you will ever have. I couldn't take him.
Round #8: Pick: Miguel Montero: At the time of the pick, I typed something like, a catcher with plus power? I'll take it. Who else I considered? I"ll never tell, because at least three guys are still available.

Fantasy Minor League Draft Reivew*

Brock20 — Sat, 03 Feb 2007 00:04:11 -0000

2007 SCFBL Minor League Draft Order

Round 1

Chris: Delmon Young, OF, TB
Matt: Alex Gordon, 3B, KC
Nik: Philip Hughes, SP, NYY
Scott: Brandon Wood, SS, LAA
Jesse: Homer Bailey, SP, CIN
Zach: Matt Garza, SP, MIN
Jason: Chris Young, OF, ARI
Mike: Justin Upton, OF, ARI
Ryan: Billy Butler, OF, KC
JJ: Mike Pelfrey, SP, NYM
Kenny: Cameron Maybin, OF, DET
Stephen: Evan Longoria, 3B, TB

Round 2

Stephen: Andrew McCutchen, OF, PIT
Kenny: Tim Lincecum, SP, SF
JJ: Hunter Pence, OF, HOU
Ryan: Jay Bruce, OF, CIN
Mike: Scott Elbert, SP, LAD
Jason: Ryan Braun, 3B, MIL
Zach: Andrew Miller, SP, DET
Jesse: Andy LaRoche, 3B, LAD
Scott: Troy Tulowitzki, SS, COL
Nik: Yovani Gallardo, SP, MIL
Matt: Luke Hochevar, SP, KC
Chris: Adam Miller, SP, MIN

Round 3

Chris: Felix Pie, OF, CHC
Matt: Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, BOS
Nik: Carlos Gonzalez, OF, ARI
Scott: Reid Brignac, SS, TB
Jesse: Elijah Dukes, OF, TB
Zach: Fernando Martinez, OF, NYM
Jason: Clayton Kershaw, SP, LAD
Mike: Gaby Sanchez, 1B, FLA
Ryan: Joey Votto, 1B, CIN
JJ: Joe Koshansky, 1B, COL
Kenny: Jose Tabata, OF, NYY
Stephen: Donald Veal, SP, CHC

Round 4

Stephen: Chris Iannetta, C, COL
Kenny: Chuck Lofgren, SP, CLE
JJ: Josh Fields, 3B, CHW
Ryan: Billy Rowell, 3B, BAL
Mike: Adam Lind, TOR, OF
Jason: Colby Rasmus, OF, STL
Zach: Clay Buchholz, SP, BOS
Jesse: Travis Snider, OF, TOR
Scott: William Inman, SP, MIL

10.Nik: James Loney, 1B, LAD

Matt: Eric Hurley, SP, TEX
Chris: Brandon Erbe, SP, BAL

Round 5

Chris: Erick Aybar, SS, LAA
Matt: Adam Jones, OF, SEA
Nik: Jeff Niemann, SP, TB
Scott: Nick Adenhart, SP, LAA
Jesse: Philip Humber, SP, NYM
Zach: Lars Anderson, 1B, BOS
Jason: Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C, ATL
Mike: Ryan Sweeney, OF, CWS
Ryan: Jacob McGee, SP, TB
JJ: Chris Volstad, SP, FLA
Kenny: Angel Villalona, 3B, SF
Stephen: Eric Campbell, INF, ATL

Round 6

Stephen: Kevin Slowey, SP, MIN
Kenny: Humberto Sanchez, SP, NYY
JJ: Carlos Carrasco, SP, PHI
Ryan: Brad Lincoln, SP, PIT
Mike: Brandon Morrow, SP, SEA
Jason: Eric Patterson, 2B, CHC
Zach: Mark Pawalek, SP, CHC
Jesse: Joba Chamberlain, SP, NYY
Scott: Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B, SD

10.Nik: Dustin Pedroia, 2B, BOS

Matt: Michael Bowden, SP, BOS
Chris: Elvis Andrus, SS, ATL

Round 7

Chris: Chris Carter, 1B, ARI
Matt: Bryce Cox, RP, BOS
Nik: Daniel Bard, SP, BOS
Scott: Brent Lillibridge, SS, ATL
Jesse: Daric Barton, 1B, OAK
Zach: Jeff Clement, C, SEA
Jason: Taylor Tankersley, RP, FLA
Mike: Russ Ohlendorf, SP, NYY
Ryan: Dexter Fowler, OF, COL
JJ: Jeff Baker, OF, COL
Kenny: Dellin Betances, SP, NYY
Stephen: Franklin Morales, SP, COL

Round 8

Stephen: Chris Parmelee, OF, MIN
Kenny: Ian Stewart, 3B, COL
JJ: Billy Sadler, SP, SF
Ryan: Pat Neshek, RP, MIN
Mike: John Danks, SP, CHW
Jason: Miguel Montero, C, ARI
Zach: Wade Davis, SP, TB
Jesse: Freddy Guzman, OF, TEX
Scott: Jonathan Sanchez, SP, SF
Nik: Jeremy Hellickson, SP, TB
Matt: Micah Owings, SP, ARI
Chris: Jeff Samardzija, SP, CHC

Round #2: Pick: Ryan Braun. Rationale: 20-20 potential again. I must admit that I've man crushed Ryan Braun since I saw him play last year at Huntsville. The guy can flat out hit, and hit for power. He runs the bases well, picks his spots to steal, and on top of that, he's a third baseman! (Ok, maybe not for much longer.) I can tolerate a move to a corner OF position for a 20-20 guy that I believe has a shot at hitting .300.
I also considered. Yovani Gallardo, Tulo, and Andy LaRoche. The will he or won't he develop power scared me off Tulo very early. Watching the pitching that went and the order it went, I was not wholly convinced that Yovani might bounce back to me. Pipe dream, probably, but there were a handful of quality pitchers still available, who were only a slight notch below Gallardo. This became a debate over Andy LaRoche and Ryan Braun. I read almost every post in which either was mentioned, read and re-read the major sources on each, and then went and consulted a Ouija Board. (Did you know Ouija is Microsoft's spell checker? Cultish influence runs DEEEEEEP!) Finally, I went with Braun because of the better speed and LaRoche's slight injury concerns. Honestly, this one could have went either way, except for my man crush.

Round #3: Pick: Clayton Kershaw. Seriously, do I need to justify this one? I would say that I was considering others, but I wasn't. I thanked my lucky stars and ran.

Poll

How would you rate my draft?

Homer Simpson: (MMMMMMM DRAAAAAFFFFTTTTTT!!!!)

19 votes

Lisa Simpson: (Smart and savvy.)

17 votes

Bart Simpson: (Cunning, yet needs to put in more work)

16 votes

Marge Simpson: (Conservative, yet dependable)

21 votes

Grandpa Simpson: (Stodgy and too old.)

4 votes

77 votes | Poll has closed

SB Nation User Blog: Brock20

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The crazy promotions.

See the stars of tomorrow, today!

Local culture.

Cheap night out.

Minor League Road Trip: Tell me about your city!

Road Trip Through Cardinal Nation....

Which Cardinal affiliate would you most like to catch a game at?

Springfield (See the future....today!!!)

Palm Beach (Sun... and some young pitchers.)

Quad Cities (I hear Davenport is lovely this time of year.)

Johnson City (I love the mountains and single A ball.)

Memphis (Bar B Que Nachos....hhhmmmmmm......)

Batavia (I HEART NEW YORK!!!)

MLB Opening Day Marketing Plan....

Dice-K's First Start....

Fantasy Baseball: A Bigger Challenge....

Minor League Fantasy Draft

****Fantasy Minor League Draft Reivew*****

How would you rate my draft?

Homer Simpson: (MMMMMMM DRAAAAAFFFFTTTTTT!!!!)

Lisa Simpson: (Smart and savvy.)

Bart Simpson: (Cunning, yet needs to put in more work)

Marge Simpson: (Conservative, yet dependable)

Grandpa Simpson: (Stodgy and too old.)

Fantasy Minor League Draft Reivew*