I was reading over some of the comments on Rodney's post on Second Round QBs. Something someone said struck me and I started to write a reply. After six or seven paragraphs, I decided that perhaps it needed to be it's own post, mostly because I have a question that I want to ask MHR. Not to start something, but because I really feel that the question is at the core of whether we make large strides forward as an organization, or continue to muck around in the shallow end with the like of the Cleveland Browns, the Washington Redskins, the Miami Dolphins, the Jacksonville Jaguars, etc.

There are some teams that have made some strides or are poised to jump out of cellar of the NFL having been perennial cellar-dwellers. The Detroit Lions tossed Matt Millen, cleaned house and are nearly a powerhouse. The Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bungles Bengals have both made some great progress the last year or so. It looks like getting rid of Al Davis and Todd Haley is going to really help our nemeses in Oakland and Kansas City respectively. It's too soon to tell yet, but I think the combo of Les Snead and Jeff Fisher is going to be good for St. Louis.

The Mad Goblin Al Davis via www.tiricosuave.com

Why are some teams able to stay consistent and dominate year-in and year-out? Why do some teams like Cleveland stay down no matter how many high first round picks they get? Some of it's drafting, certainly. But even when good coaches and players go there, they drown in the crud that is the organizational mire there. Even with Mike Holmgren there, there seems to be little he can do to pull a rabbit out of a tattered, flea-bitten cap. I saw Jeff Garcia go from Pro Bowl QB to the dumpster in Cleveland and when he finally got back on a good team in Philly was good again. Now, you can make the argument and I'd probably agree with some of it that perhaps Holmgren is overrated and so was Garcia. But, you can pick out 20 more guys just like him (Belichick, anyone?) that couldn't make it in Cleveland. I'm not sure ANYONE can make it in Cleveland. The poor Browns had to move to Baltimore to get to the Super Bowl for crying out loud.

Part of the equation, in my opinion, is the corporate culture. The basic tenets and beliefs of the organization is inherently responsible for whether the team is a success or not. Is the team given the tools, assets and people to succeed?

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Back on March 11, I wrote a post and predicted what was going to happen with free agency and the coming draft. I wasn't really serious, it was more what I hoped would happen if everything fell our way.

So how did I do? Let's find out.

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"...we moved up 25 spots to the top of the fourth, which we really believe this is a deep draft. It’s not real thick at the top, but it’s pretty deep through the middle rounds. We thought by adding another good pick it gives us more options going into tomorrow. Plus we’ll still be able to get the same people that we had targeted that made it to us at 25 at 36..." - John Elway

So who do we pick with the 4th and 25th picks in the second?

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I just finished reading an article by Michael Hiestand of USA Today suggesting that instead of the New York Jets hosting the HBO show for the second time in a row (with the lock-out last year, Hard Knocks was not on, the Jets were shown last in 2010), they should consider New Orleans Sean Payton-less bunch or Denver with Peyton Manning and John Elway.

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Well, I'm not quite done the reseach I was doing to Agent Jerry Fletcher's question (and a couple of other MHR members) regarding how Pat Kirwan's Explosion Number and Production Ratio stand up against defensive line personnel that have been in the league awhile. I posted Who do you pick if you don't like Brockers, Cox, Still, or Worthy? to ask the aformentioned question and got a lot of others that had the same question I did, which was is how likely is a prospect to succeed can be based on his Explosion Number?

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I read Monday Morning Quarterback by SI's Peter King as I do every Monday morning. He had a tweet by Greg Cosell @gregcosell and a little blurb about him and how good he is. I looked him up and read what he has tweeted over the last couple months and I would have to agree. I have added him to my followings and suggest you may consider doing the same if you haven't done already. Fantastic insight by a master evaluator.

Here are some snippets that are either specifically about the Broncos or Peyton Manning or about DT/DE prospects upcoming in the draft, DT being our obvious need. Take a look!

March 14 - Interesting comparison betwn FA DL Jones + (Quinton) Coples. Both play DE + DT. Jones quicker laterally better pass rusher, Coples stronger at point. Coples will be 1st rd pick, Jones was not. There were times Jones looked outstanding as pass rusher. Never gained consistency. Why he's FA. At this point Coples inconsistent splash player. Power/leverage rusher more than speed/quickness rusher. Flexibility + closing speed issues. Coples height/weight combo similar to C. Dunlap. I think Dunlap is a better athlete. Better quickness, agility + flexibility as pass rusher. Coples not explosive athlete. Flexibiity, closing speed not what you look for but in tandem w/leverage/power can be effective pass rusher.

March 24 - 2 under radar signings that are big: TEs Tamme + Dreessen to Broncos with Manning. Dreessen a better player than people might think.

March 24 - Broncos still have V. (Virgil) Green. Maybe I was wrong, + I know nothing about the kid, but liked him out of Nevada last yr. Athletic receiving TE.

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I just finished Pat Kirwan's book, Take Your Eye Off the Ball. Great book, fantastic read! It led me to relook at they guys in the draft and look at them from a sort-of Moneyball angle. How can we get better players for less? How do you find a Tom Brady or a Terrell Davis in the 6th round, or a Rod Smith as an undrafted free agent? So I started scouring different scouting sites and tried to identify players with some of the formulas from Pat's book, like the one for explosion number, production ratio or lateral agility.

I watch mock after mock draft having us pick the same 6 or 7 guys and it's driving me crazy. I don't like any of them. Most want us to pick from a group of defensive tackles or ends like Michael Brockers, Devon Still, Jerel Worthy or Fletcher Cox. McShay has us grabbing Brockers at 25. CBS and other online blogs give him glowing reports, but the LSU product's explosion number coming out of the combine was a dismal 55.92, he did better on his pro day, pumping it up to 61.42, but it's still not the 70 number that a first round pick should be at. His production ratio was poor at 0.48 (needs to be at 1.00 or above). This guy just screams BUST to me!

Peter Schrager from FoxSports.com and Rob Rang, Pete Prisco, Will Brinson and Dane Brugler from CBSSports.com have us taking Devon Still from Penn State (Do they even do their own mocks or just copy each other?). He had a much better P-ratio at 1.07, but didn't jump the broad jump at the combine, but even if he'd jumped a 10 footer, he'd only ended up with an explosion number of 67. Not bad, but not first round material.

Pat Kirwan from CBS (shame on you, Pat!) and Charles Davis and Charley Casserly from NFLNetwork have us taking Jerel Worthy from Michigan State at 25. Worthy didn't benchpress at the combine, so we don't have an explosion number for him, my guess is he'd come in around 70 with his other numbers, so that's not bad and he's got a P-ration of 0.99, so he's in the ballpark. But I want the Broncos to find another Von Miller at 25, maybe not so polished but has the requisite athleticism and past production to warrant a first rounder. No more Alphonso reaches, no more Moreno busts.

Fletcher Cox is another name thrown around in our direction by Clark Judge of CBS. The big boy from Mississippi State has a decent 0.86 P-ratio, a little low, but his explosion number is 66.25. Ick. It's not bad, but not good enough for my Broncos.

Albert Breer and SI's Don Banks had us taking Colby Fleener, the TE from Stanford, but later that day we signed Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreessen, so Colby's out.

NFL Network's Chad Reuter has us taking Kendall Wright, WR from Baylor. Interesting thought. With Peyton Manning here, that certainly is a possibility. Should we take a WR in the first round? Normally I don't like to grab receivers this high unless his name is Jerry Rice. Too many busts. And the ones that aren't busts are divas (see Moss, Owens, Ocho-cinco, and our own Brandon Marshall)

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That world-famous prognosticator, the Clairvoyant Canuck, the Amazing Logan looks into his patent-pending crystal ball and gives his MHR buddies a leg up on what’s about to happen in the very near future with his beloved Broncos:

Free Agency

Peyton Manning signs with the Denver Broncos for 15 million a season for 3 years plus 2 more years with an opt-out clause. Half of Bronco fans are giddy, the other half are up in arms, thinking EFX has lost their marbles. The immediate consequence is that suddenly other free agents are taking notice. For instance, a few days ago, most FA wide receivers were steering clear of Denver’s Tebow-led running offense as they would have few opportunities under that system, now their agents are returning Elway’s calls. As Jay Glazer tweeted the other day:

"One reason Peyton likely have new team b4 free agency begins is bc teams say they wanna use 18 as a tremendous recruiting tool for other FAs".

Just like the Pats have been doing for years, suddenly Denver is a destination team, where players will sign for less to play with Peyton.

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I see a lot of ranting here and elsewhere the last few days about how we should be here or there, how we deserve what we got, how Tim got us here or he's the problem in the first place.

For me, I am ecstatic to be here. Goin' to the playoffs, baby! The Raiders, Chiefs and Chargers all knocked out!

I think back to the beginning of the year. We were just coming off a horrific 4-12 season where our record might have been better than the team actually was. The defense was a complete bust, had no identity and couldn't stop a fly from rushing. The offense was lackluster, our starting QB was benched and we got to see what Tim Tebow could do and he went, what 1-2 in the final 3 games?

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I just finished reading Outliers by Malcolm Gladwell.  Really an excellent book, I would recommend it to anyone.  In it, he relates a study performed by psychologist K. Anders Ericsson and two colleagues at Berlin's elite Academy of Music.  They compared musicians trying to determine if there was such a thing as innate talent.  What they found, was that the amateurs only practiced 3 hours a week, amounting to 2000 hours of practice.  The professionals steadily increased their practice times until by the age of 20; they had reached 10,000 hours of practice.  Gladwell compares Mozart, Bill Joy, Bobby Fischer, The Beatles, and Bill Gates and comes to some interesting conclusions at the end of the chapter.

"The striking think about Ericsson's study is that he and his colleagues couldn't find any "naturals", musicians who floated effortlessly to the top while practicing a fraction of the time their peers did.  Nor could they find any "grinds", people who worked harder than everyone else, yet didn't have what it takes to break the top ranks.  Their research suggests that once a musician has enough ability to get into a top music school, the thing that distinguishes one performer from another is how hard he or she works.  That's it.  And what's more, the people at the very top don't work just harder or even much harder than everyone else.  They work much, much harder."

"The idea that excellence at performing a complex task requires a critical minimum level of practice surfaces again and again in studies of expertise.  In fact, researchers have settled on what they believe is the magic number for true expertise: ten thousand hours." (Gladwell, 2008, pp. 39-40)

"The emerging picture from such studies is that ten thousand hours of practice is required to achieve the level of mastery associated with being a world-class expert - in anything.  In study after study, of composers, basketball players, fiction writers, ice skaters, concert pianists, chess players, master criminals and what have you, this number comes up again and again.  Of course, this doesn't address why some people get more out of their practice sessions than others do.  But no one has yet found a case in which true world-class expertise was accomplished in less time.  It seems that it takes the brain this long to assimilate all that it needs to know to achieve true mastery." (Levitin, 2006, p. 197)

Let's say a kid starts out playing Pop Warner at age 7 (just picking an age where kids might start being interested) and he practices for 2 hours a day, 5 days a week for 4 months a year until he hits 16.  9 years of Pop Warner equals about 1440 hours.  Let's say he plays some flag football on the school ground and after school for 500 more hours.  He might have played and practiced 2000 hours by high school. 

Then he has 3 hours a day, 4 days a week, plus a 3 hour game on Friday for 3 months a year plus August two-a-days, 5 days a week to get ready for the season.   By the end of high school, he will have added another 900 hours to that total.  Possibly 2900 hours so far.

He goes to college, maybe on a scholarship, perhaps as a walk-on.  He practices two weeks in August for 8 hours a day, 6 days a week, then 3 hours a day, 5 days a week September through the end of November, plus games on Saturday.  Four years of college ball adds up to 1250 hours.  Add in practices getting ready for bowl games, spring scrimmages and maybe up to 1300 hours.  Give him the benefit of his own practices and maybe he might have 4000 hours by the end of college all together.

Your average football player still has a long way to go when he hits the NFL before he gets to 10,000 hours.  Now perhaps those of you who have played Pop Warner (they don't have Pop Warner in Canada, we play hockey from the age of 3) and went on to college ball can let me know if those hours are about right.  But even if we doubled them, he'd still be 2000 hours short.

So let's say you're Tim Tebow.  From what I've read, he never played Pop Warner, joined up on the team the last 2 years of high school (played on a high school team, even though he was being home-schooled at the time) and then went to Florida for 4 years (or perhaps 5, but I don't think he redshirted).  He needs practice time.  He was not the starter last year and so wasn't getting first team reps until near the end of the year.  He lost out this year on the OTAs and other workouts this spring and summer because of the lockout.  Had a significantly shortened training camp and then has been dumped into 3rd string behind Brady Quinn, so has probably been playing with the 2nd and 3rd stringers on the scout team.

This is a guy who is waaay short of 10,000 hours.  He needs some serious rep time, not only so that the front office can decide whether he is going to be "the man" or whether they need to draft a quarterback in the first or second round, but he needs practice time to assimilate things so that the drop backs, the accuracy, the throwing motion practice stuff all translated into muscle memory and becomes automatic come game time.

I have no idea whether John Elway, Xanders or John Fox or anyone in the front office ever reads these blogs, but I plead with them to give this kid a chance.  Give him some practice hours; good ones not scout team garbage reps so that he can show what he was showing at Florida:  a guy who like Montana, Elway, Young, Aikman or any of the other great quarterbacks, always digs deep when the chips were down and found a way to win.  I think he's got it.  But it has to be harnessed.  Joe Montana had Bill Walsh to mold him into the Hall of Famer he became.  John Elway had Mike Shanahan to teach him, Steve Young had Walsh and Shanahan to work on his accuracy, staying in the pocket, working on his throwing motion, working on his footwork and reading his checkdowns.  Aikman had a fellow, can't remember his name, but the Cowboys hired him away from Walsh's staff in the late 80's to be Aikman's QB coach (all I remember is Mike Holmgren replaced him as QB coach for the 49ers).  He needs the right mentorship, the right coach, and the quality reps under center to get better.

I read The Genius a few weeks ago, about Bill Walsh and how he reinvented the passing system and created what we call the West Coast Offence today.  Another good book I would recommend.  It was interesting to me how green and unpolished Joe Montana was when he came to the 49ers.  They won that first Super Bowl almost in spite of him.  He did great things when he had the ball (Hmmm kind of like someone else I saw play the other day), but he also had lots of interceptions and a lot of things that he and Walsh worked on to get better.

Look at the good quarterbacks right now:  Tom Brady did some very good stuff in his second year when he replaced Drew Bledsoe and took his team to Belichek's first Super Bowl win with the Patriots.  But he was still green and under 10,000 hours.  He's passed that mark a long time ago and it shows.  He's a much better QB today than he was when they won that first one.

Peyton Manning was 1-15 his first season.  Didn't win a Super Bowl until 8 years in the NFL, and it was 5 years before they started having 12-win seasons back-to-back-to-back-to-back.  Just a guess, but I'd say he probably hit the 10,000 hour mark about 2003 coinciding with 12-4 season.

Drew Brees was let go by San Diego just about the time he hit 10,000 and he has been fantastic in New Orleans ever since.

Aaron Rodgers mentored under Brett Favre for 3 years getting close to his 10,000 in practice time, then was OK his first two years then won a Super Bowl in 2010 and seems to be even better this year.  When did they crank it up and win the big game?  After his fifth year, and third year as a starter.  10,000 hours.

Ben Roethlisberger was on some great Steelers teams early on.  They went 15-1 in his rookie season in 2004, lost the conference championship to the Patriots, went 11-5 the next year and won the Super Bowl in 2005.  But I remember writers saying how badly Ben played, really the team won in spite of him.  Then they have 2 sub-par years at 8-8 and 10-6 and are back to the Super Bowl in 2008.  He played much better in this game.  That's after 4 years in the NFL, I'll bet if you took the time to add up his practice and playing hours, you'd be over 10,000.

Has Kyle Orton had 10,000 hours?  Assuredly he does.  He is a journeyman quarterback and has a number of years as starter under his belt.  Does 10,000 hours ensure greatness?  No, that was made pretty clear in the book.  10,000 hours will get you most of the way there, but if don't have that spark, that intangible quality, the will to win, to just explode when the time comes, no amount of practice will compensate for that.

Does Tim Tebow have that?  I think he does.  We've seen it repeatedly in his games at Florida, again last season when he was making things happen on a very poor team, and again last Sunday.  Will to win.  That's what it's all about.  He just needs some playing time now.

Just got a tweet this morning from Bob Papa, the NY Giants play-by-play guy.  He says "As a Giants fan I learned to trust Reese. Every move is Kosher with me. We don't have the big picture."  Interesting thought.  Do we as Broncos fans have any trust in the current leadership of the team?

My best friend Steve once said to me, trust is like a bank account.  You make deposits and withdrawls every day.  One day you call in sick, you make a withdrawl from your employer's bank account.  You bring in a new client, you make a deposit, maybe a big deposit.  As long as the balance is in the black, you're good, with your employer, your friends, your wife, your kids, etc.  Even if you get in the red, a lot of times they will cut you some slack if in the long run you've always maintained a good sized balance.

 

I used to trust in Mike Shanahan for many years.  He would make moves and some of them I would think, "Huh?" but often they would work out.  Hey, he won two superbowls. Then he started to get rid of the guys who got them there.  In fairness, some of them, like John Elway got old and retired.  Some like Terrell Davis and Al Wilson got hurt and retired.  But there was some coaches, who got tired of his antics, or wanted to break out on their own and left.  There was guys like Trevor Pryce who he clashed with and he got rid of them for a song.  Can you imagine where we might have been with some of those guys on the roster the last couple of years?

The running game stalled.  The defense just got worse and worse.  I've read some of the posts here on MHR where they detail how as soon as Al Wilson got hurt and retired, the defense just caved.  The Mastermind was drafting guys like Maurice Clarett, George Foster, Terry Pierce, Ashley Lelie and Deltha O'Neal.  Big withdrawls.  The trust account was emptying out fast.  He hit 2006 and drafted Cutler, Scheffler, Marshall, Dumervil, Kuper and Domenik Hixon (who I always thought he gave up on waaaay too quickly).  And I remember thinking, "Hey maybe he's got his mojo back."  The next year he drafted Clady, Royal, Torain (who is now back with him in Washington), Larsen the human cannonball and Peyton Hillis.  I loved the picks, loved how they played (deposit, deposit, deposit...)

But we lost games at the end of the season and Shanny's account hit the red with Pat Bowlen and he was all out of trust with the big guy.  I was with a lot of you and thought we needed to get a defensive minded coach and I was rooting for Steve Spagnuolo from the Giants, but we never seemed to even go after him.  Now look what he's done with sad-sack St. Louis.

Instead they grab the one-year wunderkind from the Patriots who take a career back-up QB (hell, he was a career back up for his entire college career) who made Matt Cassell look like the second coming of Tom Brady.  I didn't like the move.  But, he picked up Mike Nolan as his defensive coordinator who I had great respect for (deposit).  He immediately mishandled the Cutler situation and we all watched The Feud progress until Cutler was traded (major withdrawl, although looking back we got a bunch of draft picks, an OK QB and got rid of one of the biggest whiny-babies in the league).  We watched him start purging the team of Brandon Marshall (withdrawl, again, now looks like genius move with all of Brandon's off-the-field issues) Tony Scheffler and Peyton Hillis (major withdrawls - Hillis went on run everyone over as a Cleveland Brown, most of us would have predicted that).

But, we started out 6-0, looked unbeatable due to Nolan's defense (Cha-Ching, huge deposit) and I thought, Hey maybe I was wrong about the guy.  And then we collapsed.  And the Minimind pissed off Nolan so bad with his interference and know-it-allness that Nolan left at the end of the season.  And you know the rest of the story as Paul Harvey would say.  More stupid personnel moves (withdrawl after withdrawl) until the  huge account-closing withdrawl with his connection with the Video taping saga and subsequent firing.  Good riddance.

So, the question is, have the Denver Broncos earned your trust back?  Is there a positive balance in the account?

This is how I see it.  They hire John Elway to oversee football operations.  (Hmmm, not sure about this one initially, but OK, small deposit).  They hire John Fox as Head Coach. (Again, not sure about this initially, but the guy is defensive minded, has turned around horrible teams in the past, so OK small deposit.  I would like to note here that this move has been a larger and larger deposit as time has gone on for me as I've gotten to know the guy better and seen how he handles things.)  They bring in Dennis Allen to fix the defense (small deposit).  They keep Brian Xanders around (who I actually think is one of the few highlights over the last couple of years-deposit), they keep Eric Studesville and Mike McCoy to keep some offensive continuity (small deposits).

And then the draft.  I love the pick of Von Miller (Ka-Ching).  He is a beast and IMO the stud of the draft.  Yeah, yeah, I know we needed defensive tackles, but they take years to develop and there just wasn't a Ndamukong Suh lurking around this year.  They picked up the best safety in the draft in Rahim Moore and it looks like he's going to start from day one.  They pick up Orlando Franklin and my jury is still out on this one.  They grab the best middle line backer in the draft in Nate Irving, the next best safety in Quinton Carter, Julius Thomas who looks in camp to be the second coming of Antonio Gates (yeah, I know it's early, but I'm excited), and some supporting cast members (cha-ching, cha-ching cha-ching).

We get rid of a boat load of dead money.  Nice X-man (deposit)  We re-sign Vickerson to a 2 year.  And then we wait, and wait and wait...

Then, fiiiiinally comes free agency.  We sign a nice backup/scout team QB in Adam Weber, we grab Mario Fannin who unfortunately get injured and may be out all year (I just read somewhere he was cut).  We grab D'Andre Goodwin who might be Demaryius Thomas' replacement until he gets better.  And a few more nice filler pieces.  We re-sign our strong-legged kicker Matt Prater, Wes Woodyard and Marcus Thomas.  We trade away an aging wide-receiver (and Minimind free agent) Jabbar Gaffney for DT Jeremy Jarmon and trade a 5th round pick to the Eagles for Broderick Bunkley who looks to be our starting (at least, so far) DT and at the very least some depth at our weakest link.  We replace Gaffney's spot with David Anderson.  We grab Willis McGahee, who while he may not be my first choice, comes at a much more reasonable price than some of the other free agents and might be the best running back to don orange and blue since Clinton Portis.  We grab our (for the time-being) starting TE in Daniel Fells and another good blocking TE with Dante Rosario to push Quinn and Gronkowski (maybe it's a Minimind/Sheffler lashback thing, but I don't like either of those guys).  We grab a backup DE in Derrick Harvey.  They sign Ty Warren who, along with Bunkley should fix the swinging gate that has been our run-stopping ability.  The whole time the media is screaming about no Defensive Tackles being signed and who should start at quarterback there's this constant Cha-ching, cha-ching sound going on in the background.  Maybe I'm crazy, but I'm liking the deposits I'm seeing.

I don't think we're done.  This insane free agency period isn't over.  Everyone has to drop to the 53 man roster and I think there's some gems still waiting to be plucked off the waiver wire by the front office.  I don't think they are done yet.

I read the papers, the blogs and everyone's opinion including Rick the douchebag Reilly and Merrill Hoge (who I normally respect, but who shoved a fence post up his... whatever) and I think Bob Papa has it right.  We don't see the big picture.  We aren't privy to the grand plan.  Jerry Reese has done a pretty good job over the last few years for the Giants and added a lot of deposits to his bank account and so Giants fans can relax a bit and know that Jerry has the big picture and will do OK by them.

Can we say the same about our team?  Has John Elway, John Fox and Brian Xanders added enough deposits this off season, that we as fans can take a Valium, relax, and trust them that they are going to go OK by us going forward?  They've got the big picture and maybe we need to cut EFX a little slack and just wait and see what happens with this QB thing.  Let the media scream and holler about who should be starting and trust that the powers-that-be have our back and will start the best QB come the start of the year.  Do we have enough faith that Elway and Fox, who ought to know something about whether a QB is ready to play yet, will mentor Tebow and give him his shot when he's ready?  How many QBs have we seen thrown to the wolves and mentally destroyed/sacked silly/pulverized before they were ready (think David Carr and probably Cam Newton, Jake Locker and Andy Dalton this year)?

Personally, I wouldn't say the bank account was overflowing yet, but it's in the black for the first time in a really long time.  In EFX I trust.  At least until I see some seriously huge withdrawls...

I spent a little time this afternoon looking up various sources to see what they had to say about the draft.  Many outlets have not graded the draft yet.  I expect more out tonight (like Peter King's MMQB) and tomorrow, but here's what I found so far:

 

Clifton Brown for The Sporting News                                                B+

 "Von Miller and Rahim Moore will upgrade a defense that desperately needs it, and Orlando Franklin will help the offensive line."

Brian Shannon (featured columnist) for Bleacher Report           A-

"The Broncos drafted the best linebacker in this draft or any draft in the last 10 years by grabbing the outside linebacker from Texas A&M, Von Miller. We initially doubted this pick but after sitting on it, we love the match of Miller and Broncos head coach John Fox.

Rahim Moore started off the second round for Denver after a trade with the 49ers, and we love that pick. Moore is a great athlete with the range to make plays. He will be a replacement for Brian Dawkins.

Picking back-to-back, thanks to trades, the Broncos draft a right tackle to replace free agent Ryan Harris. Orlando Franklin is another good, solid value pick that fills a need.

Nate Irving is a really nice pick in Round 3. As the Broncos move to the 4-3 defense, they'll need players like Sheppard.

You have to like John Elway's first draft."

 Rob Rang for CBSSports.com                                                          B-

"Had the Denver Broncos not been lacking defensive tackles on their roster and their draft class, their efforts over the three days of the 2011 Draft would rank higher. The addition of pass rusher Von Miller -- an immediate candidate for Defensive Rookie of the Year honors -- certainly boosts their grade. So does the fact the Broncos were able land UCLA free safety Rahim Moore in the in the second round. Moore, the top-rated free safety by NFLDraftScout.com, should be aided by the assistance of veteran Brian Dawkins. The Broncos could see an immediate impact from big, burly offensive lineman Orlando Franklin, their third-round choice. Of the Broncos' late-round selections, Portland State tight end Julius Thomas is the most intriguing. Thomas is the latest former basketball player to attempt the conversion to the gridiron."

 Mel Kiper                                                                                                B

"The addition of Von Miller as a no-brainer because he can be the defensive rookie of the year; Rahim Moore, the first safety off the board, was great value; and Nate Irving "could be a steal." However, he does have concerns over the lack of defensive line help. So Kiper gives a 'C+" for addressing team needs, but a "B+" for getting value."

Randy Covitz for Kansas City Star                                                    A

 "The sack-starved Broncos pair ’09 NCAA sack leader Miller with ’09 NFL sack leader Elvis Dumervil, who missed all of last season. Moore, a ballhawk, will be heir apparent to Brian Dawkins, 38, while Irving has big-play potential in new 4-3 defense. Franklin will move from LT to a guard. Carter will have impact on special teams. Thomas is another converted basketball player hoping to be the next Tony G or Antonio Gates."

 Adam Caplan for Fox Sports                                                           C+

 "While Miller is a great player, he would be better off at defensive end rather than outside linebacker. Most personnel evaluators believe he would be a better fit for a 3-4 defense than Denver's 4-3."

Loved the article on Von Miller in the Denver Post this morning.  Here's Miller's coach at Texas A&M, Mike Sherman on Von:

"Von brings a freakish talent and skill level to his position. His relentless ability to bend, torque his body and turn the corner on his fourth step, while maintaining his balance with his toe pointed at the quarterback, is uncanny for a pass rusher.

"We didn't ask him to drop much into coverage because we wanted him affecting the quarterback's rhythm and timing, but that doesn't mean he can't do it. He'd line up and play corner in practice against our receivers just messing around, and he was able to hold his own. If we let him do it, he would have been a great tight end, as well as punt returner and kick returner.

"He has excellent hands. He could have played running back at the major-college level because he has great feet, a low center of gravity and unbelievable balance. In spite of all this, he has just started to come into his own as a player. What he has done so far on the field is just the tip of the iceberg."

Read more: After a quiet start, Von Miller's attitude and talent speak volumes - The Denver Post http://www.denverpost.com/broncos/ci_17966890#ixzz1L8LdXcBj
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I think EFX did the best thing they could have done with that first round pick, the more I find out about this kid, the more I love the pick!

I love where EFX are going so far.

I think they got the best player in the draft in Von Miller.  He’s big, fast and athletic and should be an immediate starter.  Combined with Elvis we’ve got a 1-2 pass rush punch in Von Doom.  (Kudos on whoever came up with that name first, Love it!!)

They picked up the best safety in the draft by far in Rahim Moore, pairing him with a mentor in Brian Dawkins. 

They didn’t like Ryan Harris’ ability to stay healthy and support the run and didn’t want to pay big bucks to keep an average right tackle so they grabbed Orlando Franklin who has a nasty streak we haven’t had on the O-Line since Tom Nalen retired.  Some of you don’t like this guy, but I have to believe that they’ve got a plan and are running with it.  Now you have Clady, Beadles, Walton, Kuper and Franklin.

Next they grab Nate Irving who I think is in the same mold as Al Wilson.  We haven’t had a real MLB since Al’s neck injury.  Think Von Miller on one side, Irving in the middle and DJ Williams can move back to the weak side where he really excelled instead of trying to cover where he really didn’t belong.

The question now is, where do we go from here?

We’re fine at WR, with Lloyd, Royal and Thomas.  Linebackers just got filled out.  We’d be fine at running back if Braniac McDaniels hadn’t sold Peyton Hillis for Brady Quinn and a bag of magic beans.  I’m wondering what Fox thinks of his old RB free agent, DeAngelo Williams.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see them pick him up when free agency finally starts.  I would like to see if Knowshon and LenDale can stay healthy this year and we might have something great.

I think at QB, you’ve got a proven game manager in Kyle Orton.  He can score if we have any kind of a running game and we need to give Tebow some time to mature and learn.  Give him a year or two under #7’s wing and we could be seeing the next Aaron Rogers type of situation.  Remember, we are not winning the Super Bowl next year, this is a rebuilding process.

I’d like to see them steal Zach Miller from Oakland in Free Agency (mostly because we’d be taking their most productive receiver) and pick up another Tight End in Day 3 of the draft.  (Again, if only Brainiac wouldn’t have gotten rid of Tony Sheffler... what was the point of that move?  I don’t like you, get out of my sandbox?)

So, at DE, we have Elvis Dumervil and Robert Ayers, both moving back to their proper positions after the failed 3-4 experiment, but we have a HUGE hole at Defensive Tackle that will have to be filled in another draft, I understand why they didn’t like a lot of the Day 2 DT that were taken, a lot of them were suspect and the ones that are left, we’ve got Christian Ballard the pot smoker who probably won’t be able to pass the drug testing and then there is a huge dropoff.  But I’m thinking EFX has got their eye on a couple of guys like Brandon Mebane (Sea) and Barry Cofield (NYG).  Both of these guys are beasts against the run and both have started to pick up their pass rushing in the last year or two.  Cofield may be on the way out of New York as the Giants grabbed Marvin Austin with the 52nd pick.  That would give us Ayers-Mebane-Cofield-Dumervil front four.  The question I would like to ask is this:  Does Denver try and keep Marcus Thomas once free agency starts?

And what about Albert Haynesworth?  I would like to see us pick him up from Washington where he is obviously on his way out.  I know the guy had huge problems with Shanahan last year, but he was signed to play in a 4-3 where he's great and forced to play in a 3-4 where he was not comfortable (please, I'm not condoning his behavior or the way he handled the situation).  He has some legal issues pending and probably a couple game suspension coming from Goodell once the season starts, but the guy was amazing in Tennessee.  I think it would be well worth our time to invest in his turn-around.

I really appreciated Chopperpilot for his depth chart a few days ago.  So much so, I copied it and pasted it into Word and have been adding and subtracting players as we go along.  Otherwise I haven't been able to keep up with McDaniel/Xavier shopaholics with Pat's new credit card.  So with the rash of recent signings, this is what I think we are looking at so far for depth: 

Offense
POS	STARTER	2nd	3rd	4th
WR	Brandon Marshall	Brandon Stokley
TE	Daniel Graham	Tony Scheffler	Adam Bergen
LT	Ryan Clady	Tyler Polumbus
LG	Ben Hamilton	Kory Lichtensteiger
C	Casey Weigmann
RG	Chris Kuper	Pat Murray
RT	Ryan Harris	Matt McChesney
WR	Eddie Royal	Jabar Gaffney
QB	Jay Cutler	Chris Simms
FB	Peyton Hillis
RB	LaMont Jordan	Correll Buckhalter	JJ Arrington	Ryan Torain

3-4 Defense
POS	STARTER	2nd	3rd	4th
LDE	Marcus Thomas	Tim Crowder
NT	Ronald Fields	Draft Pick	Carlton Powell
RDE	Kenny Peterson	Darrel Reid
LOLB	Elvis Dumervil	Draft Pick
LILB	D.J. Williams	Wesley Woodyard	Boss Bailey???
RILB	Andra Davis	Spencer Larsen
ROLB	Draft Pick	Jarvis Moss
CB	Champ Bailey	Josh Bell	Draft Pick
SS	Brian Dawkins	Josh Barrett
FS	Renaldo Hill	Draft Pick
CB	Andre Goodman	Jack Williams

Special Teams
POS	STARTER	2nd	3rd	4th
PK	Matt Prater	Draft Pick
P	Brett Kern
H	Chris Simms
PR	Eddie Royal
KR	CB Draft Pick
LS	Lonie Paxton

What do you think, have I got this about right?  I wasn't sure what side Kenny Peterson would play on as he was a DT last year but projects to be a DE now in the 3-4.  Someone was saying earlier that Boss would be gone by the end of training camp, and barring any major injuries, I concur.

Let me know what you think so I can keep up.

 

With Scott O'Brien leaving for the Patriots, we have apparently snagged Mike Priefer, who was the Chiefs special teams coach last year.  I don't know much about this guy and went looking for something and here is what I found on the guy, which wasn't much.  Didn't look like they had a very good special teams last year due to an inordinately high number of rookies and injuries.  I don't know about this hiring, anyone have any thoughts?

Here are my thoughts for the offseason:

1. General Manager. Hire Scott Pioli. The number one thing the Broncos need is a long-term plan. They need a vision of where they are going and what they are to become. Every team that has success on a consistent basis, (see New England, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Baltimore and I'll put San Diego in this category as well) has drafted well and brought along the young talent as the older talent fades or moves on. They are all smaller market teams like Denver and make only a few moves in free agency to shore up small holes and stay away from the Steinbrenner-Jerry Jones style of personnel management. This is the most critical position in terms of long-term success, and if you can't get Pioli, look for another in the same mold as Pioli, A.J. Smith, and Bill Polian. Denver's habit of giving the farm away for has-beens year after year has to end.

 

2. Coaches. Hire Steve Spagnuolo. Or Rex Ryan. Both are available and will immediately fix our Orange Slush Defense. I like Woody Paige article on the merits of Spags and he points out that our defense has the same need of a innovative coach as our offense did 14 years ago when Shanahan was hired. The entire defensive coaching ranks needs to be gutted. Spags or Ryan will be bringing in their own people anyway, so this shouldn't be a problem. Leave the offensive side alone. With Rick Dennison and Bobby Turner we will have a productive zone blocking running game and Jeremy Bates is doing a good job with Jay Cutler.

 

3. Defensive Line. Get Julius Peppers in free agency. He's an amazing athlete with a more consistent record than Albert Haynesworth and has less baggage and it looks like Tennessee is trying hard to lock Haynesworth in anyhow. Failing that, grab Terrell Suggs or Johnathan Babineau. How did Parcells go about turning around things in Miami? He started with the front line, as the battle is won and lost in the trenches. If we can't control the line of scrimmage (and we couldn't this year), then we are done. I like Elvis Dumervil on passing downs, but he can't seem to stop the run. Jarvis Moss, Marcus Thomas and Tim Crowder all look like busts, but they are cheap right now and I'd like to see what someone with Spagnuolo's caliber could do with them. Dewayne Robertson is done, and the rest of the line can hit the street where they belong. A couple of draft picks need to be spent here for the future.

 

4. Safety. The safety position has to be our barest cupboard. Marlon McCree had horrible numbers, but I'm willing to chalk that up to the same exposure problem our corners had this year, namely you can't cover your man forever when the line isn't getting any pressure on the opposing QB. He had better numbers in Carolina and San Diego and so I'd give him another year. The other M&M couldn't wrap up Christmas presents and needs to be cut or waived. I'd look at taking a safety in the second round. I'd like to see either Taylor Mays of USC or William Moore with Missouri but they should be gone by the 44th pick. If not, I'd take the top safety on the board and go after someone like Darren Sharper in FA for the interim.

 

5. Linebackers. Every great defense starts with a great middle linebacker. Think of the great Denver defenses and you have to start with Randy Gradishar, Karl Mecklenburg, or Al Wilson and the leadership they brought to the table. Look around the league and the teams getting it done are led by the likes of Ray Lewis and James Farrior (who are both free agents but I can't see either team letting them get away). We need to take Rey Maualuga of USC in the first round with the 12th pick. Barring that, we need to take a run at Jonathan Vilma or Mike Peterson in free agency. This year the linebacking corps was a virtual MASH unit. D.J. Williams is good at the “Will” position when he was healthy and I thought Jamie Winborn was one of the few good surprises on defense. Rookie Wesley Woodyard might just be the answer at “Sam”. I think we have the makings of a good linebacking core if we have a leader to lead them. Nate Webster needs to follow his lost helmet right out of the Mile High... uh Invesco Field, and expensive busts Niko Koutivides and Boss Bailey can go with him.

 

6. Corner Backs. Unless someone is willing to make a Herschel Walker-type trade for Champ Bailey, we need our best football player out there. He make opposing offenses throw the other way and is one of the only consistant run stuffers we have. Dre' Bly has been taking a lot of heat, but they have to throw to his side of the field to get away from Bailey and they had no pressure from the front seven. Perhaps I'm naive, but I think that although this tandem is getting long in the tooth, with a decent pass rush, these two will be back to Pro Bowl contention. Draft a cornerback in the later rounds so he can be mentored by Bailey while he is still here.

 

7. Special Teams. Matt Prater's 68% kicking average is a little brutal after being used to Jason Elam's 85.3% kicking over the last five years, but Elams first year stats are almost identical to Prater's (26/35 for 74%) and in 2002 he went 26/36 for 72%. So I'm inclined to give the kid a break for his first year kicking and look forward to some booming 60+ yard field goals from that booming foot of his. Brett Kern was decent as a rookie. “Kamikaze” Spencer Larsen had some unbelievable hits but I was disappointed overall as I thought with Scott O'Brien coming on board that things would be significantly better. They only excuse is that the team as a whole was the walking wounded and they were stealing the special team players every week to plug the holes. Give Scott another year.

 

8. Running Backs. Due to injury, this position turned us into a CFL team: four wideouts and throw the ball on every down. I read a post by ChristianL ( he has some great points on his wish list) and I agree that making a run at Darren Sproules would be worthwhile. They are paying LaDanian Tomlinson around 7 million a year and Michael Bennett 3 million a year and they probably can't afford to keep Sproules. Can you imagine a return team of Sproules and Royal? That's just scary. I really like what I saw out of Peyton Hillis and think he might be the answer. Ryan Torain needs to be healthy enough that we can actually get a good look at him to see what we have there. I don't think Selvin Young is the answer from what I saw this year and Andre Hall has hands of butter. Michael Pittman is a good change of pace runner when he isn't busy being injured. Tatum Bell is worth keeping around as cheap insurance as he knows the running scheme. If we don't pick up Sproules in free agency, we need to spend a 3rd or 4th round pick on one.

 

9. Center. Tom Nalen just announced his retirement so signing Casey Wiegmann for the next couple of years has to be a priority. Wiegmann will be turning 36 next year though so some thought should go to drafting his replacement.

 

10. Quarter Back. Bazooka Jay is my man, but after watching the Cowboys crash and burn when Tony Romo broke his pinky finger and remembering Jay Cutler nearly go down with a hand injury early in the season, and as Patrick Ramsey is a free agent, I think we need to look for a good, quality backup similar to what Tennessee has had in Kerry Collins (who is a free agent, by the way). Maybe someone like Jeff Garcia who is pushing 40 and probably won't be starting for Tampa Bay next year.

 

11. Receivers. Don't think we need any help here. Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal both had an outstanding year and Brandon Stokley was a quality possession receiver.  Tony Scheffler had a very good year and has to be a Top 20 TE. Daniel Graham has nearly the same numbers he had when he was the Patriot workhorse and has to be one of the top blocking TE in the league.

 

12. Rest of the Offensive Line. This line was one of the best units in the NFL. Ryan Clady was outstanding at Left Tackle and Ryan Harris, Chris Kuper and Ben Hamilton all played superb. Other than Hamilton with 9 years in the league, the rest of the unit is young at 4 years or less.