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I've finished my AL Rankings (culminating in my AL Top 150 link) and now I move on to the NL 150 list. A 5-star system roughly correlates to a top 4 system, 4-star top 5-10 range, 3-star 11-20, 2-star 21-26, 1-star 27-30. For player grading I basically use John's system rankings (although I may be a bit more generous, particularly with the B- guys). An A is a top 4-8 player, A- Top 20-25, B+ Top 65, B Top 135, B- Top 240. All Ages are of Opening Day. In the sleeper section, I try to tab guys outside of each system's top 10-15.

 Let me know what you think- overrated, underrated, or just things you liked. Always like to here criticisms.

1. Stephen Strasburg, 21.8, RHS (WAS)- Once in a generation talent that should instantly improve the Nationals. I'm a firm believer that you win with pitching, so I'm taking Strasburg over Heyward. Grade A

2. Jason Heyward, 20.8, RF (ATL)- Potential impact player. The approach, hit tool, and power are all there. Reports say that he forced the Braves to erect a fence beyond the right field wall to protect employees' cars from Heyward's BP bombs. Grade A

3. Buster Posey, 23.0, C (SFG)- Really not much not to like. Patient hitter who should hit for average and around 20 homeruns a year. He has some improvements to make in his receiving skills, but talent evaluators are confident he can make the necessary strides. May not have the star power of Strasburg and Heyward, but he will be a very valuable player in his own right. Grade A

4. Michael Stanton, 20.5, RF (FLA)- One pure upside, Stanton rates right with Jason Heyward, but due to his propensity to swing and miss there is significantly more risk. I love the power, and he is a good enough athlete that I think he'll be able to make the necessary adjustments. Profiles as an all-star right fielder. Grade A-

5. Pedro Alvarez*, 23.2, 3B/1B (PIT)- Absolutely destroyed Eastern League pitching. I love the swing and power, but he is more than just a homerun hitter. He has a good idea of the strikezone, and should hit for solid average. Reports are mixed on his defense. I think he'll be below average there, but I think he'll stay there. Grade A-

6. Starlin Castro, 20.0, SS (CHC)- I'm on the bandwagon big time. Good defender at short, and he has all the tools to hit in the middle of a major league lineup. I think he's closer than a lot of people realize. Grade A-

7. Jenrry Mejia, 20.6, RHS (NYM)- True front of the rotation potential. Great stuff combined with an excellent 2.49 GO/AO ratio. I hope the Mets allow him to develop in the minors, because I think he can be special if he's not rushed. Grade A-

8. Alcides Escobar, 23.4, SS (MIL)- Not the same upside of the other A- guys, but he's major league ready and his ceiling is pretty darn good too. I think a 300/350/420 slash line with 20-30 steals and gold glove caliber defense is not out of the question. Grade A-

9. Aroldis Chapman, 22.1, LHS (CIN)- Great stuff, but I worry about his command. The potential is undeniable, but I think he needs (would greatly benefit from) a full year in the minors. Floor of Oliver Perez (pre-2009 version). Grade A-

10. Logan Morrison*, 22.7, 1B (FLA)- One of the most patient hitters in the minors, Morrison will have the power to profile at first base, and his OBP should be amongst the league leaders year-in, year-out. Just needs get wrist to 100 percent. Borderline A-. Grade B+

11. Christian Friedrich, 22.9, LHS (COL)- Polished left-hander with the ceiling of a number 2. Could be up by the middle of the season depending upon major league health. Borderline A-. Grade B+

12. Domonic Brown*, 22.7, RF (PHI)- Great athlete. He showed his power potential with huge bomb off of Verlander in spring training. Despite his athleticism he is not a great outfielder. Should be a 6. Borderline A-. Grade B+

13. Julio Teheran, 19.2, RHS (ATL)- Electric fastball and developing secondary stuff. He has the potential to become a true number one, but he is a long way away. Grade B+

14. Tyler Matzek*, 19.6, LHS (COL)- Incredible blend of stuff and polish is likely to make several teams regret passing on him. I think he'll be the first prep pitcher from 2009 to reach the big leagues. Potential top-of-the-rotation arm. Grade B+

15. Dee Gordon, 21.11, SS (LAD)- Despite being the son of a big leaguer, Dee didn't pick up baseball until high school. He is one of (if not the) fastest players in the minors, has the tools to stay at short, and the bat speed to make scouts think he'll be a solid offensive contributor. High risk, high reward guy. Grade B+

16. Jarrod Parker, 21.4, RHS (ARZ)- A- if not for Tommy John, but surgery docks him some. I don't harbor too many long-term concerns about his ability to comeback. Another potential top-of-the-rotation arm. Grade B+

17. Madison Bumgarner, 20.8, LHS (SFG)- I don't think anyone can predict with much confidence how Bumgarner's career will go. With his 2008 velocity he is a potential 1 or 2, without it I can't picture him as more than a 3. Giants are publicly confident that he'll be fine, but I am concerned. Grade B+

18. Arodys Vizcaino, 19.5, RHS (ATL)- Raw stuff to profile as a front-of-the-rotation arm. Swing-and-miss curve to go with low-90s fastball and good command for such a young arm. It had to be tough for the Braves to move Vazquez, but they got a good arm in return. Grade B+

19. Shelby Miller, 19.6, RHS (STL)- My favorite prep arm in the 2009 draft, I think his fastball curve combo give him two potential plus-plus pitches. His command is not good, but he has smooth mechanics, and I think he'll be able to improve with innings. Grade B+

20. Derek Norris, 21.2, C (WAS)- Great combination of plate-discipline and power. If he can improve his defense he could become a real force. Broken hammate bone could depress 2010 power numbers. Grade B+

21. Jaff Decker*, 20.1, LF (SD)- First teenager to lead the Mid West League in OPS since Prince Fielder did it in 2003. He's a better athlete than he's given credit for. Profiles as a 20-25 homerun guy who posts OBPs around 390. Grade B+

22. Chris Withrow, 21.0, RHS (LAD)- Despite throwing only 20 innings in his first two seasons, scouts love Withrow's clean arm action. Needs to improve control, command, and change, but has the pure stuff to become a dominant starter. Grade B+

23. Jhouyls Chacin, 22.3, RHS (COL)- Close to major league ready #3 starter. Pounds the zone with low-90s sinking fastball and gets strikeouts with plus change. Needs to improve curve to reach full potential. Grade B+

24. Jason Castro*, 22.10, C (HOU)- Doesn't have a huge ceiling, but looks like a solid major league catcher (and boy are those hard to find). Should be a similar offensive player to AJ Pierzynski, but I view him as a better defender. Grade B+

25. Brett Lawrie, 20.3, 2B/COF (MIL)- Absolutely love the bat, but it seems most view him as a future outfielder. Grade B+

26. Mike Leake, 22.5, RHS (CIN)- Ultra athletic, undersized righty reminds me of Tim Hudson. Should be a solid third starter with five pitch repertoire and pitchability. Grade B+

27. Freddie Freeman*, 20.7, 1B (ATL)- Lost in Heyward's shadow, Freeman is still a very good prospect. I'm discounting AA numbers due to wrist injury. Great defender and should hit for average. I think he'll develop enough power. Grade B+

28. Yonder Alonso*, 23.10, 1B (CIN)- Numbers were hurt by broken hammate bone last year. Patient approach and solid power, but struggles against lefties limit his upside. Should be a solid major league first baseman. Grade B+

29. Donavan Tate, 19.6, CF (SD)- Maybe the best athlete available in 2009 draft, Tate is a potential 5-tool star. However, he is raw. Grade B+

30. Jiovanni Mier, 19.7, SS (HOU)- May have had the best debut of any 2009 1st rounder. Defense has always been there, but looks like the bat may be a plus (for a shortstop), as well. Grade B+

31. Jordan Lyles, 19.6, RHS (HOU)- Doesn't have the elite stuff to profile as a number one, but his stuff is good and his command is very good. I think he'll be able to handle the jump to AA. Grade B+

32. Josh Vitters, 20.7, 3B (CHC)- Polarizing prospect. All the tools to be an all-star, but needs to improve approach. If he can watch out, if he can't he'll only be a regular. Grade B+

33. Simon Castro, 22.0, RHS (SD)- Great stuff and great frame, but he is an extreme fly ball pitcher. He's older than the majority of toppitching prospects, and I think he'll get hit around at higher levels if his command doesn't improve. He's a 3rd starter for me. Grade B+

34. Zach Wheeler, 19.10, RHS (SFG)- Great combination of stuff and projection. Needs to improve the consistency of his breaking ball and work on his change, but the tools are all there for him to be a 2 starter. I look for the Giants to assign him to the Sally League. Grade B

35. Ethan Martin, 20.10, RHS (LAD)- Power fastball and a potential plus curve. Needs to improve command and change to avoid a move to the pen. I love the athleticism and think he'll be able to make the necessary improvements. Grade B

36. Wilmer Flores, 18.8, 3B/RF (NYM)- Held his own in the Sally League at 17! Scouts love his bat-speed and power potential. The Mets need to let him catch his feet by repeating A ball. If they are patient they could have a star on their hands. Grade B

37. Tony Sanchez, 21.10, C (PIT)- Not likely to be a star, but should be an above average catcher. Solid offensive debut, but there were some concerns about his bat coming out of college. Grade B

38. Eric Arnett, 22.2, RHS (MIL)- Great combination of frame, athleticism, and stuff. I think the Brewers got a steal late in the 1st round. Innings eating third starter. Grade B

39. Matt Dominguez, 20.7, 3B (FLA)- Can pick it with the best of them at third, but I'm not completely sold on the bat. I think he'll be a solid regular, but it could be another 2-3 years before he is ready to hit in the bigs. Grade B

40. Mike Minor, 22.3, LHS (ATL)- Might not have been the best available player with the 7th pick, but I think Minor is underrated. Not going to be an ace, but should be a solid 3rd/4th starter for a long time. Could be up to start 2011. Grade B

41. Andrew Cashner, 23.7, RHP (CHC)- Ultimate role is up in the air (I think would be better out of the pen). But in any role it is tough not to love his power stuff. Grade B

42. Fernando Martinez*, 21.6, RF/LF (NYM)- Hard to believe he is still only 21. I don't think he'll ever be a star, but he looks like a 5 in either corner outfield spot. Would benefit from some more AAA seasoning. Grade B

43. Drew Storen, 22.8, RHR (WAS)- Good stuff and great command, but I think some are getting a little carried away because of his strong debut. Looks like a future closer, but it's not a lock. Grade B

44. Randall Delgado, 20.2 RHS (ATL)- Lacks the top-end stuff of Teheran and Vizcaino, but he is pretty good in his own right. I think he'll be a solid 3rd starter. Grade B

45. Todd Frazier, 24.2, 2B/3B/LF (CIN)- I think he is generally overrated. Good, but not a great hitter. Probably will be able to stick at 2nd, but it's not a guarantee. Should be a solid regular at any rate. 

46. Wynn Pelzer, 23.9, RHS (SD)- Under-the-radar prospect who strikes me as a solid middle of the rotation arm. Heavy fastball gets a lot of groundballs, and he has a plus slider. Must improve change to avoid a move to the pen.Grade B 

47. Danny Espinosa#, 22.11, SS (WAS)- Looks like he will continue in the illustrious tradition of Long Beach State shortstops having major league success. Good defender, walks, and has some pop. Those are the ingredients of a solid major league shortstop. Grade B

48. Hak-Ju Lee*, 19.5, SS (CHC)- Similar tool-set to Alcides Escobar (not quite the defender, but could become a more valuable offensive player), but he is far away. Grade B

49. Ike Davis*, 23.0, 1B (NYM)- Underrated this time last year, overrated now. Good power and solid approach should make him a regular, but I have some concerns about strikeouts. Grade B

50. Aaron Miller, 22.7, LHS (LAD)- Reluctant to pitch until his sophomore year of college (he preferred to play right), Miller has two plus pitches in his fastball and slider. Change is unrefined, so he could become a future reliever. Likely will need more development time than the typical college starter. Grade B

51. Hector Gomez, 22.1, SS (COL)- Has all the tools to become a star. Needs to stay healthy and improve discipline. It wouldn't surprise me to see Gomez win a gold glove. Grade B

52. James Darnell, 23.3, 3B (SD)- Tough to put up better numbers than he did last year, but it is important to keep in mind that he was old for the Mid West League, and then played in the hitter-friendly Cal League. No reason to think the bat won't play at higher levels, but always likely to be a below average defender. Grade B

53. Jamie Garcia, 23.9, LHS (STL)- Missed almost entire 2009 season while recovering from Tommy John, but has come back strong. Classic middle-of-the-rotation starter, gets groundballs and misses enough bats to be effective. Grade B

54. Juan Carlos (JC) Ramirez, 21.8, RHP (PHI)- The best prospect the Phillies got back for Cliff Lee, Ramirez has power stuff but may profile better as a reliever. If moved to the pen he has the potential to become a closer. Grade B

55. Jay Jackson, 22.5, RHS (CHC)- 9th Round steal continued to impress in 2009. Stuff is there to become a 3/4 starter. Needs to hone command and change. Grade B

56. Wilin Rosario, 21.1, C (COL)- May not have been ready for Hi A, but still a very good prospect. Solid defensive tools and the bat speed and power potential to be an all-star. Needs to improve his approach. I look for him to have a big 2010 season. Grade B

57. Thomas Neal, 22.8, LF (SFG)- Finally healthy, Neal put up big numbers in 2009. The bat is going to have to carry him, because he is limited to left field. And I think it will. Should be a regular in left. Grade B

58. Jon Niese, 23.5, LHS (NYM)- Not a sexy name, but a valuable pitcher. Like Garcia, he gets groundballs, throws strikes, and misses bats to bring a lot of value. I think Garcia's stuff is just a touch better. Grade B

59. Jonathan Lucroy, 23.10, C (MIL)- Underrated guy. Has hit everywhere he's gone, has some pop and a great approach. Defense will be good enough to make him a solid regular. Grade B

60. Mat Gamel*, 24.8, 3B/RF/1B (MIL)- Bat without a position at this point. He'll be a disaster at third, but the bat should profile in right and even at first. Grade B

61. Chase D'Arnaud, 22.2, SS/2B/3B (PIT)- Some questions his defense and tools, but I like him a lot. Great approach, plus runner, and should be able to be a productive big leaguer at either short or second. Grade B

62. Chad James, 19.2, LHS (FLA)- 2009 first rounder sits 90-92 with an advanced change. If he can develop his breaking ball and smooth out his mechanics he could become a solid 3rd starter. Grade B-

63. Scott Elbert, 24.8, LHR (LAD)- Shows electric stuff when healthy. Trouble is, he has struggled to do so. Effort in his delivery and history of arm trouble make me believe he is better suited for the pen (although Dodgers have used him as a starter this spring). If they choose to make him a reliever he could be a dynamite late-inning option. Grade B-

64. Juan Francisco*, 22.9, 3B/LF (CIN)- Like Gamel, Francisco is a bit of a bat without a position. He has a better shot of sticking at third than Gamel, but he is not quite the hitter. I love the power potential, but he is a hacker of the highest order. To maximize his offensive potential, and to succeed at higher levels, he will need to become a more patient hitter. Grade B-

65. Bobby Borchering#, 19.5, 3B/1B (ARZ)- Drew some Chipper Jones comparisons as a switch-hitting third base prospect. Scouts love the bat speed and power potential, but he may eventually have to move to first. Grade B-

66. Phillippe Aumont, 21.3, RHR (PHI)- Great fastball (although I question the reports that say he has great sink on it, as his GO/AO ratio was only 1.4 in 2009) and great size. Phillies will try him as a starter, but I think his ultimate home is as a late-inning reliever. I think he is overrated. Grade B-

67. Ian Desmond, 24.6, SS (WAS)- Tools to be a good defender at short, but needs to maintain focus on routine plays. 2009 numbers were fueled by an unsustainable BABIP, but he should hit for enough average to hold down the position. Grade B-

68. Garret Gould, 18.9, RHS (LAD)- Great athlete who stared as his high school's quarterback and at power forward. May have had the best breaking ball available in 2009 prep class. Potential 2 starter. Grade B-

69. Tyson Gillies, 21.5, CF (PHI)- Legitimate 80 speed allows him to be a difference maker on both sides of the ball. Plays a little out of control and very unlikely to repeat Cal League induced power. I think he can be a regular in center, but there is some risk. Grade B-

70. Jose Tabata, 21.8, RF (PIT)- Scouts love the bat speed and hit tool, but swing is too level for me to project more than 12 homeruns in the future. Solid defender in right. Profiles as a batting average driven regular, but doesn't offer much in the way of secondary skills. Grade B-

71. Everrett Williams*, 19.6, CF (SD)- One of my favorites from the 2009 draft. Solid defender with power potential. Wouldn't surprise me to see him beat Tate to the big leagues. Grade B-

72. Brett Jackson, 21.8, CF (CHC)- I'm sure some will be up in arms that I have him behind Williams and Gillies, but I'm not biting on the strong pro debut. Let's remember, as a three-year college player, Jackson should hit in the North West League. Strikeout rate jumped to almost 29 percent in the Mid West League, and I think strikeout rate is a major concern. Grade B-

73. Christian Bethancourt, 18.7, C (ATL)- Very impressive numbers in Appy and Gulf Coast Leagues. Scouts like his defense too. I'm very bullish on Bethancourt. Grade B-

74. Trevor May, 20.6, RHS (PHI)- Strong-armed power pitcher has front-of-the-rotation potential. Will need to add consistency to curve and change that both flash plus. His development made losing Jason Knapp acceptable. Grade B-

75. Sebastian Valle, 19.8, C (PHI)- Struggle in Sally League but dominated in NYP League. Scouts love the bat speed, and he handles breaking stuff very well for a young hitter. Probably a better hitter than Bethancourt, but Valle is can't match Bethancourt behind the plate. Grade B-

76. Dae-Eun Rhee, 21.0, RHS (CHC)- Underrated arm heading into 2010. Gets groundballs, and has the stuff to miss a lot of bats. If he's healthy, he should be a solid 3rd starter, with the ceiling of a 3. Grade B-

77. Jake Odorizzi, 20.0, RHS (MIL)- Brewers handled him very carefully in 2009, but he should be ready for bigger workload in 2010. Love the athleticism and projection. Another sleeper. Grade B-

78. Rex Brothers*, 22.4, LHR (COL)- Indications are that the Rockies will use the college starter out of the pen. As a reliever his mid-90s fastball and slider could make him a possible closer. Grade B-

79. Brad Lincoln, 24.10, RHS (PIT)- Derailed by arm injuries early in his career, Lincoln is healthy now but his stuff isn't quite the same. Command and pitchability are there, but needs to improve his change. I think he'll be a solid 4th starter. Could make his debut sometime in 2010. Grade B-

80. Zack Von Rosenberg, 19.6, RHS (PIT)- Signed for $1.2 million. Von Rosenberg is extremely polished for a high school arm, but at 6-foot-5, he has the potential to gain some velo. He's advanced enough to start in the Sally League. Grade B-

81. Kyle Heckathorn, 21.10, RHP (MIL)- Pro numbers need to be discounted, as Brewers limited him to only fastballs. Big frame and big stuff make him a tough guy to face. If change doesn't improve could become a late-inning reliever. Grade B-

82. Wily Peralta, 20.11 RHS (MIL)- A Tommy John survivor, Peralta has a very live arm. His command comes and goes a bit, so some are projecting him as a reliever down the road. He's got the stuff to profile in any role. Grade B-

83. Craig Kimbrel, 21.10, RHR (ATL)- Stuff to close, but command is a serious question mark. Did not impress in AFL, but the talent is too great to pass up here. If he can improve his command just a bit he could be a valuable late-inning option. Grade B-

84. Ruben Tejada, 20.5, SS (NYM)- He's been promoted aggressively, but has equipped himself well to each new challenge. There are some rumblings that he could open the regular season with the Mets because of Jose Reyes' injury. Not particularly toolsy, but the complete package could make him a second-division regular. Grade B-

84. Brandon Allen*, 24.2, 1B (ARZ)- Important not to get too carried away with 167 plate appearances in PCL. I think he'll eventually become a second-division regular at first, but Arizona's decision to sign Adam LaRoche speaks to the fact that they don't consider Allen to be major league ready. Grade B-

85. Zack Braddock, 22.7, LHR (MIL)- Couldn't handle a starter's workload physically, but his fastball-slider combo make him a dynamite reliever. Posted an other worldly 8.73 K/BB ratio in 2009. Could help in the Brewer's pen in 2010. Grade B-

86. Yorman Rodriguez, 17.8, CF (CIN)- Signed for $2.5 million in 08, Rodriguez has the talent to match anyone on this list. Can handle center, although he may ultimately have to move to right. Tremendous offensive ceiling. Grade B-

87. Rafael Rodriguez, 17.9, RF (SFG)- I think people are sleeping on Rodriguez. Physical freak and already showed an advanced approach in debut. Already 6'5", I hope he doesn't get any taller, because it is very tough to hit with such long arms. Grade B-

88. Adys Portillo, 18.3, RHS (SD)- $2 million dollar bonus in 08 set a record for highest bonus ever given to a Venezuelan pitcher. Portillo hasn't lived up to that money yet, but the potential is still evident. I think too many have forgotten about him. Grade B-

89. Anthony Gose*, 19.8, CF (PHI)- Great tools. Hit 97 off the mound in high school, but wants to play center. 80 runner, but as the old saying goes: "you can't steal first". I'm not sure if he'll hit to take advantage of his stellar tools.Grade B-

90. Edison Rincon, 19.8, LF (SD)- Bat looks exceptional- hit tool and patience are both there and should develop solid power. Question is where he will play, as he is not a third baseman. Grade B-

91. Daryl Jones*, 22.9, CF/LF (STL)- Great athlete, with impressive approach. May have to move to left because of poor arm. Could be a poor man's Carl Crawford/similar to Michael Brantley. Grade B-

92. Chris Carpenter, 24.3, RHS (CHC)- Always shown good stuff, but two major elbow surgeries at Kansas St.  have led to questions abut his long-term durability. Gets groundballs, and misses some bats. Could be a solid 3rd/4th starter, provided he stays healthy. Grade B-

93. Jeff Kobernus, 21.9, 2B (WAS)- Reminds me a bit of Chase D'Arnaud. Won't blow you away with his tools, but he is a deceptively good athlete who know how to play the game. Wouldn't surprise me to see him become a 5 at 2nd. Grade B-

94. Dan Runzler, 25.0, LHR (SFG)- Always had good stuff, but light went on working with former big league left-hander, Steve Kline. Mid-90s heat and plus breaking ball make him a potential late-inning option, but I still worry about his command a bit. Grade B- 

95. AJ Pollock, 22.4, CF (ARZ)- A lot of people like him more than me, but I'm concerned by the lack of tools. Isn't a true plus runner, but plays solid defense in center. Not likely more than 10-15 homeruns. Needs to adopt a more patient approach. Grade B-

96. Keyvius Sampson, 19.3, RHS (SD)- One of the best arms available in 2009 draft. Slipped to 4th round due to some off-the-field issues. Padres got him in the 4th and were able to sign him for $600,000. Mid-90s heat, sharp breaking ball, and athleticism make him a potential front-of-the-rotation starter. Grade B-

97. Josh Lindblom, 22.10, RHR (LAD)- Has bounced between rotation and pen as a pro, although he was a closer at Purdue. Reports say he has good sink on his fastball, but GO/AO of just over 1 last year doesn't support that. I think he's better suited for relief, but he is competing for rotation spot in spring training. Grade B-

98. Travis Wood, 23.2, LHS (CIN)- Looked like a non-prospect after a poor 2008 season, but the addition of a cutter has revitalized his career. Has always had a good change, but stuff may be a little light to project as more than a 4/5. Small frame is also a concern, but he's major league ready. Grade B-

99. Jarred Cossart, 19.10, RHS (PHI)- Above-slot 2008 signing has good stuff: 92-94 mph fastball and a curve that flashes the potential to be a plus-plus offering. Raw, but talent is there. Grade B-

100. Logan Forsythe, 23.3, 3B (SD)- Great patience, but power is limited. Talk that he may be moved to 2nd, somewhere in the outfield, or even behind the plate to make room for Darnell. Grade B-

101. Zeke Spruill, 20.7, RHS (ATL)- Pounds the zone with 89-91 mph fastball, curve, and fringy change. Still some projection remaining in the frame, but not likely to be more than a 4th starter. Grade B-

102. Cody Scarpetta, 21.7, RHS (MIL)- Solid three-pitch repertoire, including curve that Mid West League managers rated as the League's best offering. Needs to stay on top of his conditioning to become solid 3rd/4th starter. Grade B-

103. Brad Boxberger, 21.10, RHP (CIN)- Debate over whether he should be developed as a starter or fast-tracked as a reliever. Fastball-curve combo would make him a solid late-inning option if he is moved to the pen, and it seems most talent-evaluators like him there. Grade B-

104. Jiwan James#, 21.0, CF (PHI)- Drafted as a pitcher, James turned to hitting in 2009 after a stress fracture in his forearm didn't heal as expected. With the debut he has gotten off to, it's a wonder he didn't start his career as a position player. Potential 5-tool player. May be an even better athlete and Gose or Gillies, as he was an all-state basketball and football player in high school. Grade B-

105. Eduardo Sanchez, 21.2, RHR (STL)- Only 5-foot-11 155, but he has a big-time arm. Reminds me of Leo Nunez and could become a similar late-inning reliever. Grade B-

106. Aaron Poreda, 23.6, LHR (SD)- Main piece acquired in Peavy deal, Poreda struggled mightily after the trade. Still the power stuff is there. Control keeps him out of rotation, but should be a valuable pen arm. Grade B-

107. Roger Kieschnick*, 23.2, RF (SFG)- Good numbers in 2009, but like with all Cal League sluggers, the stat line needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Scouts seem to think power is for real, but discipline is below average and long swing could result in a lot of Ks as he climbs the ladder. Not sold on him as a regular. Grade B-

108. Andrew Lambo*, 21.8, 1B/LF (LA)- Value is all in the bat, so he'll have to hit to make it. AA numbers not impressive, but signs for optimism. Still very young, and showed solid gap power. Reminds me a bit of current Dodgers first baseman James Loney. Grade B-

109. JJ Hoover, 22.8, RHS (ATL)- There isn't much projection remaining, so what you see is pretty much what you get. Not likely more than a 4, but a pretty safe bet to reach that. Grade B-

110. Kenley Jansen, 22.6, RHR (LA)- Former catcher converted to the mound in 09. Scouts love easy delivery and mid-90s velocity. Slider shows great life and is a potential out-pitch. Grade B-

111. Jeremy Jeffress, 22.6, RHR (MIL)- On pure talent alone may rank in top 15, but three positive tests for Marijuana have led to a 100 game suspension. One more and he will receive a lifetime ban. Mid-90s heat and potential for a plus breaking ball could make him a closer. Grade B-

112. Reese Havens, 23.5, 2B (NYM)- College shortstop will move to second this year. Power and patience are there. I think numbers were depressed by FSL and injuries, look for him to bounce back strong. Grade B-

113. Kentrail Davis*, 21.9, CF (MIL)- Potential top 10 pick before poor sophomore season. 5-tool potential is still there. Grade B-

114. David Freese, 26.11, 3B (STL)- At 27, there obviously isn't much projection remaining. Not going to repeat AAA numbers in big leagues, but will bring enough with the bat to hold third base down for the season. Grade B-

115. Ivan DeJesus Jr., 22.11, SS/2B (LA)- Looked poised to make big league debut coming off impressive 2009 campaign, but broken leg in spring training ended his season before it began. There were some questions about his range at short before the injury, and those have only grown in the face of a leg injury. Probably more solid utility/second division regular than everyday regular. Grade B-

116. Ryan Flaherty*, 23.8, 2B/3B (CHC)- Put up big numbers in Mid West League, but it's important to remember that as a three-year college player that is to be expected. Already 23, should reach AA during the year. If he can't handle second defensively he could become left-handed Mark DeRosa. Grade B-

117. Tanner Bushue, 18.9, RHS (HOU)- Extremely projectable 2nd round pick from Illinois. He's raw, and will likely spend 2010 in Appalachian league, but there is a lot of upside. Grade B-

118. Chris Owings, 18.8, SS (ARZ)- Similar to DeJesus in that neither is especially toolsy, but both get the job done. Needs to become a more patient hitter, because there isn't much power here. Solid defender who should hit for average. Grade B-

119. Trayvon Robinson#, 22.7, CF (LAD)- Hasn't shown much with the bat coming into 2009, but had a big year repeating the Cal League. Impressed in the AFL with athleticism and speed. On pure tools would rate higher, but I'm not biting on Cal League performance just yet. Still needs to improve approach. Grade B-

120. Allen Webster, 20.2, RHS (LA)- Early indications are that the Dodgers found a steal in taking Weber in the 18th round and signing him for only $20,000. Needs to add bulk to 6-foot-2, 165 pound frame. Works in low 90s, breaking ball is a potential plus pitch. Very intriguing arm to follow. Grade B-

121. Rymer Liriano, 18.10, RF (SD)- Potential to become an impact player. Cannon for an arm, tremendous raw power, and quick bat. His rookie league manager proclaimed that Liriano had the most potential he had seen in a Latin prospect in his years managing. There is some hyperbole there, but you get the point. Concern about pitch recognition and discipline. Grade B-

122. Starling Marte, 21.6, CF (PIT)- Biggest asset is plus-plus speed, but needs to improve jumps in the outfield and on the base paths to take full advantage of it. Good bat speed, but needs to improve approach. BABIP inflated 2009 numbers and I worry about power potential. Grade B-

123. Chris Heisey, 25.4, RF (CIN)- Not a big believer. Nice underdog story, but a bit of a tweener. Already 25 he is behind the learning curve, and I don't think he is more than a good 4th outfielder. Grade C+

124. Tommy Joseph, 18.9, C/1B (SFG)- One of the best prep bats available in 2009, evokes Paul Konerko comparisons as a high school catcher likely to move to first as a pro. Big-time raw power. Grade C+

125. Chris Marrero, 21.9, 1B (WAS)- Put up good numbers in the Carolina League and continued to hit in the AFL. Some scouts question the swing, and the general consensus seems to have him as a second-division regular. Grade C+

126. Kyle Allen, 20.2, RHS (NYM)- Guy I think is underrated. Gets ground balls and strkeouts, and there is projection remaining. Probably a 4th starter, but a guy I think a lot of people are sleeping on. Grade C+

127. Mike Belfiore, 21.6, LHS (ARZ)- Boston College's closer famously threw 9 2/3 of relief ball in marathon game against Texas, and Arizona plans to use him as a starter. Needs to improve his change, but I think he can be a solid 4th starter. Grade C+

128. Matt Davidson, 19.0, 3B/1B (ARZ)- A lot of people seemed to have inexplicably soured on him between draft day and today (10th on BA's list, 11th on John's, and 8th on KG's). May be a first baseman long-term, but he is an advanced high school bat with big-time power potential. Grade C+

129. Drew Cumberland*, 21.3, SS/2B (SD)- A star running back and DB in high school, Cumberland is an exceptional athlete. Has drawn Brian Roberts comparisons for speed and patience. Just needs to stay healthy. Grade C+

130. Antonio Bastardo, 24.6, LHP (PHI)- Live-armed, undersized left-hander. Arm problems in the past make me think he's better suited as a reliever. But reliance on change limits left-on-left potential. Grade C+

131. Ehidre Adrianza#, 20.7, SS (SFG)- A potential gold glover at short, Adrianza is reportedly the guy the Marlins wanted back for Dan Uggla. The bat is a work in progress, but you don't need to hit much when you can pick it like he can. Grade C+

132. Cory Luebke, 25.1, LHS (SD)- Good pitcher's frame at 6'4" 200. Command is good, but repertoire is just so-so. Been old for competition at every step, so I'm discounting the numbers a bit. Back-end guy. Grade C+

133. Domingo Santana, 17.8, RF (PHI)- 6-foot-5 physical freak. Timed at 6.7 in 60 and 90 off the mound! Raw power to match anyone in the system, but rawness is evident in 37 percent strikeout rate. Grade C+

134. Michael McKenry, 25.1, C (COL)- At 25, McKenry is approaching the stage where he is what he is, but there is value in that. Solid defender, who threw out 46 percent of would be base-stealers in 09. Patient hitter with some pop could profile as second-division regular or solid backup. Grade C+

135. Edwar Salcedo, 18.8, SS/3B/RF (ATL)- Tough to know what to make of him without any pro data, but tools are there. Seems destined for third or right, but Braves feel bat will play at either spot. Grade C+

136. Kyler Burke*, 21.11, RF/1B (CHC)- Cubs discussed moving him to the mound prior to 2009, but he was adamant that he could hit. And he backed it up in 2009. Patient approach and good defender, but needs to turn doubles into homeruns as he moves up through the system. Not quite ready to bite yet. Remember, he was an experienced hitter for Mid West League. Grade C+

137. Nolan Arenado, 19.0, 3B (COL)- Rockies love the makeup and work ethic. Needs to continue to improve defense to stay at third. Doesn't have above average power potential, but great hit tool as evidenced by 9 percent strikeout rate in debut and 300 average. Grade C+

138. Brett Wallach, 21.4, RHS (LAD)- Just now filling out 6'3" frame. Dodgers believe he will add velocity as he does. His off-speed stuff is advanced. I think he was a great pick in the third round. Grade C+

139. Ryan Tucker, 23.4, RHP (FLA)- Top prospect heading into 2009, Tucker seems to have become forgotten guy after missing most of 2009 with a knee injury. Fastball slider combo make him a solid bullpen option, but needs to improve his command. Grade C+

140. Brad Holt, 23.6, RHS (NYM)- Led NYP League in Ks in 08, but disappointed in 09. Some say injuries are responsible for AA struggles, but I see a guy with a true fastball and questionable secondary stuff. Future bullpen arm for me. Grade C+

141. Scott Mathieson, 26.1, RHR (PHI)- Underwent 3 surgeries over a two-year period, but appears healthy now. Fastball sits in mid-90s with usable slider and change. Could be a late-inning guy if healthy. Grade C+

142. Robinson Lopez, 19.1, RHS (ATL)- Lost amongst the likes of Teheran, Vizcaino, and Delgado, but Lopez is a solid arm. Scouts love easy delivery and solid stuff. Potential 3/4 starter. Grade C+

143. Jonathan Galvez, 19.3, 2B (SD)- Signed for $750,000 in 07, Galvez put together a strong US debut. Employes an advanced approach and quick bat gives him a chance for average and power. But questions abound about interest in playing defense. Grade C+

144. Kirk Nieuwenhuis*, 22.8, RF (NYM)- Well-built athlete may be a bit of a tweener. Concerns over swings-and-misses and ultimate power preclude higher grade. Grade C+

145. Brad Hand, 20.0, LHS (FLA)- Held his own pitching in hitter-friendly Greensboro as a high-school arm from Minnesota, very impressive. Needs to improve secondary stuff. Big-time sleeper. Grade C+

146. Logan Watkins*, 20.7, 2B (CHC)- Kansas State commit stared as a quarterback and defensive back in high school. Great tools, but needs to hone defense. Profiles as a leadoff type hitter. Grade C+

147. John Gaub, 24.11, LHR (CHC)- Best arm acquired in Mark DeRosa trade. Makings of a great left-handed reliever. Power fastball and interesting breaking stuff. Should help pen this year, but poor command and advanced age keeps him behind other left-hander relievers on this list. Grade C+ 

148. Esmil Rogers, 24.8, RHP (COL)- Signed as a shortstop, Rogers has made a seamless transition to the mound. Unlike many converted position players, scouts like the delivery. Needs to hone command and change, but mid-90s fastball and curve make him a valuable arm. Grade C+

149. Lance Lynn, 22.11, RHS (STL)- Overrated. Reputation of sinker-baller, but only a 1.10 GO/AO last year. Doesn't strike many guys out, and walks too many. Don't think he'll be more than a back-of-the-rotation guy. Grade C+

150. Tim Wheeler, 22.2, RF (COL)- Not a big believer in Wheeler. Tools are pretty average across the board, but he is going to need to hit to profile in right. Grade C+

151. Josh Thole*, 23.5, C (NYM)- Poor defensive catchers without power don't profile as regulars. Thole's hit tools should be enough to find a home in the big leagues, but I think he's a backup catcher. Grade C+

 

Honorable Mentions:

Scott Cousins*, CF/RF (FLA)- Tools to become a regular, but he's getting up there in age. Needs to start taping into his raw power. Reminds me a bit of current Marlin Cody Ross, but I think he's more of a 4th outfielder.

Brett DeVall, 20.3, LHS (ATL)- Braves first pick in 08 hasn't been able to stay healthy, despite clean mechanics. I like the solid three pitch mix, and I look for him to have a solid 2010 season.

Eury Perez, 19.10, CF (WAS)- Under-the-radar prospect is like a Starling Marte light. Plus-plus speed, but not sure how to use it yet. Hit tool is there, but BABIP was unsustainable.

Nate Eovaldi, 20.2, RHS (LAD)- Classic Texas fire-baller. Runs fastball 93-96 but off-speed stuff is still crude. Durability questions still remain.

Mark Rogers, 24.2, RHP (MIL)- 5th overall pick from 2004 draft missed all of 2007 and 2008, but may finally be healthy. Showed impressive stuff in limited work in 2009. Could be a late-inning guy if he stays healthy.

Brody Colvin, 19.8, RHS (PHI)- Over-slot sign from 2009 draft has projectable frame and low 90s velocity, but his secondary stuff is very raw.

Victor Black, 21.10, RHP (PIT)- Top college arm from lone star state in 09 draft. Fastball-slider combo make him a potential late-inning option, but will be developed as a starter.

 

System Rankings:

1. Atlanta Braves (4*)- Heyward gives them an elite guy at the top of the system, and there is impressive depth throughout (especially on the pitching side). Teheran and Vizcaino are potential front-of-the-rotation guys, while Delgado, Minor, Spruill, Hoover, Lopez, DeVall, and Stovall are all legitimate starting prospects. Weaker on the positional side outside of Heyward and Freeman, but guys like Milligan and Mycal Jones have a chance (plus, bats are available on the free agent market- it's tough to find pitching out there). Twelve Braves on the top 151: (A, 3 B+, 2 B, 4 B-, and 2 C+). System Sleeper- Brett Oberholtzer- Funky delivery and great command make this left-hander a potential back-of-the-rotation starter.

2. San Diego Padres (4*)- There is a perception that the Padres always go for low-ceiling college guys; however, a look through the system reveals a lot of high upside talents. They have drafted well in recent years and have an underrated presence in Latin America. They don't have the top dog that most the other 4 star systems have, but I love the high upside talent they have assembled. Padres had fifteen players in the top 151: (3 B+, 2 B, 7 B-, 3 C+). System Sleeper: Dexter Carter- Acquired in Peavy deal. Good athlete, great frame, and good stuff. Lack of a third pitch could push him to the pen, but an arm too many are sleeping on.

3. Milwaukee Brewers (3*)- One of the most balanced systems in the game. Escobar, Gamel, and Lucroy are bats who should help in 2010, and there is a plethora of high-upside arms in the low minors. I think Arnett was a steal where the Brewers got him, and Odorizzi, Heckathorn, Peralta, and Scarpetta are all solid prospects. If Jeffress can stay away from Marijuana, he could become an impact late-inning arm. Rogers looks like he could help after all, although health is still a concern. I liked their 2009 draft a lot. Even though Max Walla got off to a rough start, I wouldn't give up on him yet. Twelve Brewers on the 151 list: (A-, B+, 3 B, 7 B-).  System Sleeper: D'Vontrey Richardson- The former Florida State football player, Richardson didn't play much baseball his sophomore or junior seasons, but he is an exceptional athlete with five legitimate tools. 

4. Los Angeles Dodgers (3*)- Underrated system. Lack an elite prospect, Gordon and Withrow have ceilings to match almost any prospect in the game. Lot of depth, especially in terms of high-upside arms. Between Withrow, Martin, Gould, Webster, Wallach, and Eovaldi there should be a steady stream of starters moving through the system. Furthermore, Elbert, Lindblom, and Jansen could all make solid late-inning options. Dodgers had 13 players in 151: (2 B+, 2 B, 8 B-, 2 C+). System Sleeper: Jonathan Garcia- Dodgers may have found a steal in 8th round right fielder out of Puerto Rico. Considered toolsy but raw in draft, showed impressive polish in debut. 

5. Chicago Cubs (3*)- There is more risk in this system than in most, as the talent is in the low minors, but this system also has the potential to produce several impact players. As his ranking indicates, I'm a big believer in StarlinCastro, and the Cubs have the luxury of also having another solid shortstop prospect in Hak-Ju Lee. Beyond those two Darwin Barney, DJ LeMahieu, and Ryan Flaherty give the Cubs rare depth in the middle infield. I think Cashner is better suited to be a reliever long-term, but I still like him. Jay Jackson was a great find in the 9th round, and he and Chris Carpenter could be solid mid-rotation, perhaps both pitching in the big leagues in 2011. The Cubs had 12 players in the top 151 (A-, B+, 3B, 4B-, 3 C+). System Sleeper: Blake Parker- Former catcher has big time velocity and good sink on his fastball. His secondary stuff is raw, but I think he will be a solid relief option perhaps as soon as the second half of 2010.

6. Cincinnati Reds (3*)- This may be the 2013 team to beat in the NL Central. With Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, and Edison Vosquez establishing themselves in the big leagues and Chapman and Leake arriving in the next year or two, the Reds have the makings of a very solid rotation. The lineup should be solid as well, although it will be interesting to see how the team tries to get Votto, Alonso, Francisco, and Frazier in the same lineup. I'm not as big on guys like Travis Wood and Chris Heisey as many seem to be, but both should contribute in the majors in 2010. This system is strong 1-10, but the 11+ depth is fairly weak. The Reds had nine players in the top 151 (A-, 2B+, B, 4 B-, C+).  System Sleeper: Neftali Soto- Looked to be on the fast track after big 2008, but struggled in 2009. Needs to improve his approach, but the offensive tools are there. I hope the Reds try him behind the plate.

7. Colorado Rockies (3*)- Friedrich, Matzek, and Chacin give them three very good pitching prospects to build around, and Gomez and Rosario have big ceilings and play premium positions. I'm not as big on Rogers, Wheeler, and Young Jr as most are, but the system does have good depth. Rockies had 10 players in 151: (3 B+, 2 B, 1 B-, and 4 C+). System Sleeper: Casey Weathers- Former Vandy closer had one of the biggest fastballs in the minors in 08, missed 09 due to Tommy John but healthy now.

8. San Francisco Giants (3*)- Posey and Bumgarner give this system a very good 1-2 punch, but there isn't much depth. Wheeler, Rodriguez, and Joseph all have impact potential, but all three are a long way away. Think this system is drastically overrated by some (4th by BA!?). Giants had 9 players in the top 151: (A, B+, 2 B, 3 B-, and 2 C+). System Sleeper: Nick Noonan- Suffered through a tough 2009 season, still like his overall package. Improved approach in 09, and I look for him to have a bounce back 2010. 

9. Washington Nationals (3*)- This ranking is in complete deference to Strasburg, because any system with him is automatically middle-of-the-pack. Outside of him, Norris, Espinosa, Storen, and Desmond all look like major league contributors, with the later three likely to help in the near future and Norris being the only one with any kind of likelihood of being an impact player. The depth of the system is poor due to the fact that a lot of the Nationals' high upside picks have struggled in pro ball (Burgess, McGeary, Nieto, and Ramirez), but it is too early to give up on them. Scouts seem to like Desmond hood, but I just don't see it. Not a great athlete and didn't show enough with the bat for me to project him as a regular in left. Nationals had 7 players in the top 151: (A, B+, 2 B, 2 B-, and a C+). System Sleeper: Adrian Nieto- I liked him a lot coming out of high school in 2008, but he has really struggled as a pro. Plate discipline is still there, and I still think he can become a major league contributor.

10. New York Mets (3*)- I'm very high on Mejia, and while I don't like Flores, Martinez, or Davis, all three are solid prospects. Throw in a guy like Jon Niese, and the Mets have a nice group at the top of the system. The 6-10 region of the system is a bit on the low-end, although Tejada and Havens are solid up-the-middle prospects. Solid depth in this system, especially in the low minors. Guys like Urbina, Familia, Marte, Matz, and Puello all have a chance to have a big impact. Mets had 11 players in the top 151: (A-, 4 B, 2 B-, 4 C+). System Sleeper: Robbie Shields-Generated some first round buzz with solid performance in Cape, but pro debut was marred by injury. Move to second may be in his future, but there might be something there with the bat.

11. Florida Marlins (3*)- Stanton and Morrison are two studs at the top of the system, but the depth is below average. There is some upside with guys like Smolinski, Skipworth, Jhan Marinez, Jose Ceda, Marcell Ozuna, Edgar Olmos, and Isaac Galloway, but there are some big questions with each one. Sprinkled in with those guys is Gaby Sanchez, but no one really jumps out at you. The Marlins had only six players in the top 151 (A-, B+, B, B-, 2 C+). System Sleeper: Bryan Berglund- Swedish citizen has a projectable frame and a potential out-pitch slider.

12. Pittsburgh Pirates (3*)- This system is lacking in impact talent outside of Pedro Alvarez, but they have been aggressive the last two drafts in the later rounds trying to find such players. However, the early returns on those players have been somewhat disappointing. Robbie Grossman and Quinton Miller only had so-so full-season debuts, but it is obviously too early to close the book on them. I like Von Rosenberg, but I'm not yet sold on Pounders, Cain, or Evan Chambers. Although I don't mind the strategy of going with Sanchez 4th overall to free up the money in the later rounds. I think the main problem with this system is the return they have gotten in trades. They have given up some substantial talent in the last two years, but they haven't gotten a whole lot back. The Pirates had seven players in the top 151 (A-, 2B, 4B-). System Sleeper: Jeff Locke- Acquired in the Nate McLouth trade, Locke had an up-and-down 2009 season. His mechanics are rough, but he has a live arm and gets some groundballs. If he can smooth out his mechanics a bit, I could see him as a solid 4th starter. 

13. Philladelphia Phillies (2*)- System is pretty clearly below average. Brown gives them a nice prospect at the top of the system, but a lot of talent has exited this system via trade in the last twelve months. There is a lot of upside in the lower levels, but the 1-10 group is weak. There is certainly the possibility that this is an above-average system next year with all the high upside players, but there is too much risk for me right now. I love Jiwan James, and I wouldn't be shocked to see him as a top 100 guy next year. Phillies had 12 players in the top 151: (1 B+, 1 B, 7 B-, 3 C+).System Sleeper: Anthony Hewitt- Results obviously haven't been there, but there were some signs of improvement in 09. High bust potential, but watch out if the light goes on.

14. Houston Astros (2*)- This system rivals only the White Sox and Cardinals for lack of depth in the 11+ range. An argument could be made to have the Astros as a one-star system, but I like Castro, Mier, and Lyles enough to keep them at the two-star level. Outside of those three, the system gets pretty rough. I like Bushue, but he is a long ways away. I'm not as high on Seaton. He doesn't have his high school velocity, and his lack of secondary stuff hurts his ability to succeed as a pitchability guy. Outside of those five, the system offers little outside of relief arms and outfielders who look like reserves. The Astros had 4 players in the top 151 (3 B+, 1 B-). System Sleeper: TJ Steele- Missed a lot of time last year due to a hamstring injury, but he has an impressive blend of tools. He's not a burner, but plays a great center field. If he can become more patient he could make himself into a second-division regular. 

15. Arizona Diamondbacks (1*)- Tough system to grade because of so many 2009 draftees in top 10-15. An absurd 7 of my top ten D-backs were drafted in 2009. That means there is a lot of risk, but higher upside than the Cardinals or other 1 star systems. I didn't downgrade as Parker as much as some others, so he is still a very good prospect in my mind. Diamondbacks had 7 players in the top 151: (B+, 4 B-, 2 C+). System Sleeper: David Nick- Comes out of the same school as former first-rounders Scott Moore and Josh Vitters. Despite unorthodox swing has a very solid hit tool. 

16. St. Louis Cardinals (1*)- This is not a good system. I like Shelby Miller, but there isn't much after him. Jamie Garcia should help solidify the Cardinals' big league rotation, and Freese will play third, but neither offer any kind of star potential. As previously stated, I think Lance Lynn is overrated. Daryl Jones is a great athlete, and Eduardo Sanchez and Francisco Samuel have power arms, but all three are far from sure things. Some like Allen Craig as an underrated bat, but your team is in real trouble if he is getting more regular playing time. The Cardinals major league team looks poised for another playoff berth, but they shouldn't be expecting much help over the coming years. The Cardinals had six players in the top 151: (1 B+, 1 B, 3 B-, 1 C+). System Sleeper: Pete Kozma- The 2007 first round pick disappointed with the bat in 2009, but his approach was still sound. He still rates strong defensively, and I think he's better than he showed with the bat last year.

 

 

 

Poll

The best system in the National League belongs to the:

55%

Atlanta Braves

26 votes

12%

San Diego Padres

6 votes

0%

Milwaukee Brewers

0 votes

10%

Los Angeles Dodgers

5 votes

21%

Other

10 votes

47 votes | Poll has closed

I've finished my AL Rankings (culminating in my AL Top 150 link) and my NL West list (link). A 5-star system roughly correlates to a top 4 system, 4-star top 5-10 range, 3-star 11-20, 2-star 21-26, 1-star 27-30. For player grading I basically use John's system rankings (although I may be a bit more generous, particularly with the B- guys). An A is a top 4-8 player, A- Top 20-25, B+ Top 65, B Top 135, B- Top 240. All Ages are of Opening Day. In the sleeper section, I try to tab guys outside of each system's top 15.

The central is unique in that there are obviously 6 teams. However, the depth of this list is not stronger than most of the other lists, mainly due to the weakness of the Cardinals' and Astros' systems.

 

1. Pedro Alvarez*, 23.2, 3B/1B (PIT)- Absolutely destroyed the Eastern League. He's pretty much the ideal middle-of-the-order hitter. He walks, and should hit for average and power. Questions about his defense prevent him from a flat A grade, but his bat is good enough that he should be an impact player even at first. I would be surprised if he is still in the minor leagues come July. Grade A-

2. Starlin Castro, 20.0, SS (CHC)- Maybe the minor leagues' biggest breakout player of 2009, Castro went from the Arizona Rookie League in 2008 all the way to AA in 2009, and he capped off the year with a strong showing in the AFL. He projects as a plus defender at short, and Keith Law has compared his offense to Alfonso Soriano. He isn't likely to hit for the same power as Soriano, but he should be a more patient hitter. I understand why some a not yet on the Castro bandwagon, but I'm jumping on full-force. I think he is going to be an impact player. Grade A-

3. Alcides Escobar, 23.4, SS (MIL)- He doesn't have the same elite upside as other A- prospects, but there is little risk involved with Escobar. He is one of the best defensive shortstops to come through the minor leagues in the past decade, and he is not a zero with the bat. A 300/350/420 slash line with 20-30 stolen bases, and gold glove caliber defense is a realistic (although optimistic) projection for Escobar. He should be the Brewers' opening day shortstop for the next six years. Grade A-

4. Aroldis Chapman*, 22.1, LHS (CIN)- The ceiling is tremendous, but I think he is further away than most realize. His fastball/slider combo give him two possible plus-plus pitches, but his command and feel for the slider are a ways off. Reports out of Goodyear have been positive, but I think he should spend the entire 2010 season in the minors. I think he was worth the $30 million, but there is some risk here. Ceiling of a #1, floor of Oliver Perez. Grade A-

5. Shelby Miller, 19.6, RHS (STL)- My favorite prep arm in the 2009 draft, Miller has true ace potential. Fastball registers 92-96, curve is a potential swing-and-miss offering, and he has great mechanics. His command and feel have a ways to go, so I doubt he will be the first prep arm to reach the big leagues, but I think he may wind up the best when all is said and done. Grade B+

6. Jason Castro*, 22.10, C (HOU)- Castro doesn't have a huge ceiling, but he looks like a solid catcher. He plays defense, and should provide above average offense from the position. I think the AJ Pierzynski comparisons are accurate, although I think Castro will be a better defender. Other player certainly have higher upside, but it is so difficult to find productive catchers that I give Castro the edge here. Grade B+

7. Brett Lawrie, 20.3, 2B/COF (MIL)- The highest drafted Canadian hitter ever, Lawrie put together an impressive offensive season in 2009. From all accounts Lawrie looks like a potential force with the bat. The questions stems from his defensive home. He is a poor defensive second baseman, so a move to one of the outfield corners could be in his future. If he can stay at second, his bat would make him a potential all-star. In the outfield his is more solid regular. Grade B+

8. Mike Leake, 22.5, RHS (CIN)- Undersized, athletic right-hander, he remind me a ton of Tim Hudson. He doesn't have Hudson's splitter, but he has five legitimate pitches. Not likely more than a 3rd starter, but he should rise through the system quickly. Grade B+

9. Yonder Alonso*, 23.10, 1B (CIN)- Limited by a broken hammate bone last year, Alonso still put up a solid season. He has an advanced approach, and once his wrist is 100 percent I think he will show more power. Upside is limited by his struggles against lefties. It will be interesting to see how the Reds attempt to get Alonso, Votto, and Juan Francisco in one lineup. Grade B+

10. Jiovanni Mier, 19.7 SS (HOU)- Mier may have had the best debut of any 2009 1st rounder. He was drafted as a defense first shortstop with some athleticism, but in his debut he showed that his bat was much more advanced that he was given credit for, slugging 7 homeruns and putting up a 276/380/484 slash line. Mier is still at least 3 years away, but he and Castro give the Astros two potential stalwarts at premium positions to build around. Grade B+

11. Jordan Lyles, 19.6, RHS (HOU)- Doesn't quite have the elite stuff to profile as a number one, but his above-average stuff and good command make him a potential 2nd or 3rd starter. He is advanced enough to jump over Lancaster and head straight to AA. Grade B+

12. Josh Vitters, 20.7, 3B (CHC)- One of the more polarizing players in the game, Vitters has all the tools to be an above average third baseman. He consistently squares balls up, slashing line drives all over the park. However, he is one of the most impatient hitters in all of the minors, posting a sub 3 walk percentage in 2009. The Cubs attribute some of that to the fact that he makes too much contact. At only 20, there is still plenty of time for him to adopt a more patient approach. Even with his impatient approach, Vitters profiles as a regular, but if he can't walk he doesn't have much star potential. Grade B+

13. Eric Arnett, 22.2, RHS (MIL)- One of the biggest risers in the 2009 draft, the Brewers may have gotten a steal late in the first round. At 6-foot-5 220, Arnett has a great starter's build, but unlike many big pitchers, Arnett is a great athlete. He was on the Men's basketball practice squad at Indiana, and that athleticism should serve him well in repeating his mechanics. He good stuff in a low-to-mid-90s fastball, a solid slider, and showed a propensity to get groundballs in his debut. I like him as an innings eating 3rd starter. Grade B

14. Andrew Cashner, 23.7, RHP (CHC)- A college closer, the Cubs have transitioned Cashner to the rotation, but it is unclear in what role he will ultimately settle into. His fastball is 92-95 as a starter, but reaches the upper 90s out of the pen. Furthermore, the Cubs kept him on a strict pitch count in 2009, so it is not clear whether Cashner will be able to withstand a starter's workload. As a starter, Cashner's strikeout numbers didn't match the scouting reports on his stuff. With Angel Guzman going down for the year, there is a chance that Cashner could break with the big league club to open the season, although he likely needs some more minor league seasoning. I like him better out of the pen, and his power stuff gives me the impression that he can be a closer. Grade B

15. Todd Frazier, 24.2, 3B/2B/LF (CIN)- I think Frazier is overrated by many. A shortstop in college, he has bounced from position to position as a pro. Reports now say that the Reds will play Frazier at second, but it is unclear at what level he will be able to play there. The bat looks solid, but there isn't a lot of power, and Frazier is not a particularly patient hitter. Frazier looks like a regular, but I see very little star power. Grade B

16. Hak-Ju Lee*, 19.5, SS (CHC)- Signed for $725,000 in 2008, Lee's debut was delayed by Tommy John surgery. Healthy in 2009, Lee showed no ill-effects of the surgery. He received rave reviews for his defense at short, with many projecting that he will ultimately force Starlin Castro to second. Furthermore, he was impressive with the bat. Lee doesn't have much power, but he is a 65 runner who showed a patient approach and the ability to hit for average. He has a similar ceiling to Alcides Escobar. While he may not be quite the same defender, he looks like a more patient hitter. Grade B

17. Tony Sanchez, 21.10, C (PIT)- The Pirates took a lot of criticism for taking Sanchez 4th overall, but it looks as though Sanchez will be a solid regular. Always considered a solid defender, some scouts questioned his bat, but he put some of those concerns to rest with an impressive debut. Sanchez may have a bit more power than Jason Castro, but Castro is more advanced and I think will offer more in the way of walks and average. Grade B

18. Jamie Garcia, 23.9, LHS (STL)- Garcia missed almost the entire 2009 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. He came back looking healthy at the end of the season and pitched very well in the AAA playoffs. His strong performance to close the year put to rest any concerns about the ill-effects of the surgery. Garcia is a classic middle of the rotation starter. He gets groundballs, and has enough stuff to miss some bats. He should be a solid 3rd/4th  starter in time, and he should win the Cardinals' 5th starter's spot to open the season. Very similar profile to Jon Niese. Grade B

19. Jay Jackson, 22.5, RHS (CHC)- A ninth round steal out of Furman, Jackson continued to impress in 2009. A two-way player in college, Jackson is an athletic pitcher. His fastball sits in the low-90s, and his slider is a plus offering. He struggled with his control in AA, but I think he is a safe bet to become a 3rd/4th starter. Grade B

20. Jonathan Lucroy, 23.10, C (MIL)- Not a particularly toolsy player, Lucroy has hit everywhere he has gone since being drafted in the 3rd round. He has average pop for a catcher, but his real value comes from his exceptional discipline. He walked more than he struck out in AA in 2009, and projects as a high OBP hitter. He's not great behind the plate, but he threw out 40 percent of would be base stealers in 2009 thanks to his accurate arm and quick release. Lucroy doesn't have much star potential, but in a game with few solid regulars behind the plate, Lucroy has a lot of value. Grade B

21. Mat Gamel*, 24.8, 3B/RF/1B (MIL)- Considered by many a top 100 prospect heading into the year, Gamel struggled a bit in 2009. He made some strides defensively at third, but almost all observers believe he will have to move to right or first. He got off to a great start with the bat in AAA, but after struggling in his big league debut he couldn't get back on track. Despite his struggles late in 2009, I still believe in Gamel's bat. He is a patient hitter with a good swing. He's not a big time slugger, but he should hit around 300 with 20 homeruns and walk in 10-12 percent of his plate appearances. That line profiles in right, or even at first. Grade B

22. Chase D'Arnaud, 22.2, SS/2B/3B (PIT)- A third baseman at Pepperdine, Florida State League managers rated D'Arnaud as the best defensive shortstop in the league. It is unclear whether he will be able to stay there, but he is an above average runner, has a strong arm, and fields what he gets to. At the plate, D'Arnaud doesn't have much power, but he is a patient hitter who profiles as a solid number 2 hitter. He is a gamer who gets the most out of his abilities. I think he's a big league regular at either short or second. If not, he could become a Mark Derosa-like super utility guy who gets 400 at-bats a year. Grade B

23. Juan Francisco*, 22.9, 3B/LF (CIN)- Francisco has some of the best power in all of the minor leagues, and it is flat out scary to think of the power numbers he could put up in the Great American Ballpark. However, like Gamel, he is a bit of a bat without a position. He has a very strong arm, but his range at third is limited to say the least. He has gotten some time in left, but a move there would obviously hurt his value. At the plate, Francisco is an impatient hitter. While he doesn't strikeout much for a power guy, Francisco walked in only 4.3 percent of his plate appearances last year. To have success in the big leagues he will need to tighten the zone. Grade B-

24. Jose Tabata, 21.8, RF (PIT)- Questions continue to circulate about his age, but nothing substantive has yet to have been raised to suggest that Tabata is older than his listed 21.8. However, it is very unusual for a 22 year-old to have that type of body. Scout love the bat speed and contact ability, but I don't think he will ever hit more than 12 homeruns. He needs to become more selective at he plate. Like Vitters, he may sometimes make too much contact. Tabata profiles as a regular in right, whose value comes from a high batting average. However, he is more of second-division regular for me. Grade B-

25. Brett Jackson, 21.8, CF (CHC)- Due to an impressive pro debut, Jackson is being overrated. It shouldn't be a surprise when a three year college player performs well in the hitter friendly Northwest League. While Jackson is a great athlete, the strikeout concerns that caused him to slip to 31st overall are still there. When he was promoted to the Mid West League, his strikeout rate jumped to almost 29 percent! Jackson is a good defender in center with some pop, but I am still very wary of the Ks. Grade B-

26. Dae-Eun Rhee, 21.0, RHS (CHC)- A guy I think is really underrated. Rhee lost all of 2009 while recovering from Tommy John. When he's healthy he shows a low-90s heater with good sink, a solid curve, and a plus change. At 6-foot-2 he has a good pitcher's frame. If he comes back from Tommy John healthy I think he will shoot up prospect boards. Grade B-

27. Jake Odorizzi, 20.0, RHS (MIL)- Considered by some the best prep arm available in the 2008 draft, the Brewers were extremely careful with Odorizzi in 2009, limiting him to only 47 innings. A high school wide reciever, Odorizzi is a very good athlete, and the Brewers think that between his athleticism, easy delivery, and projectable frame he will add velocity in the next couple of years. Like Rhee, I think Odorizzi is poised for a breakout 2010. Grade B-

28. Brad Lincoln, 24.10, RHS (PIT)- Derailed by arm issues early in his pro career, Lincoln seems back on the track to the big leagues. He has lost a bit of velocity since his college days, now sitting in the low 90s. However, he still profiles as a solid 4th starter thanks to his control and command. He still has some work to do with his change, but I don't consider him a likely candidate to move to the pen. Grade B-

29. Zack Von Rosenberg, 19.6, RHS (PIT)- Winner of four straight Louisiana high school championship games, Von Rosenberg was considered unsignable by most teams due to his commitment to LSU. The Pirates thought he was signable, and were able to get him for a $1.2 million dollar bonus. Von Rosenberg is very advanced for a high school arm. He has command of his fastball, curve, and change, and his off-speed stuff is advanced. He's a high 80s guy right now, but the Pirates love the projection remaining. I like him a lot too. He is advanced enough to handle a full season assignment to start 2010. Grade B-

30. Kyle Heckathorn, 21.10, RHP (MIL)- Pro numbers need to be discounted, because Brewers limited him to only fastballs. Big 6'6" 235 pound frame, and power stuff to match. I wonder if he'll be able to make enough strides with his change to stay in the rotation. Could be a late-inning option out of the pen. Grade B-

31. Wily Peralta, 20.11, RHS (MIL)- A Tommy John survivor, Peralta has one of the better arms in the system. His change is unrefined, and he struggles with his command from time to time, so some project him as a future reliever. He has the power stuff to succeed in any role. I think he will put up big numbers in the Florida State League. Grade B-

32. Zach Braddock, 22.7, LHR (MIL)- Couldn't handle starter's workload, but seems to have found a home in the pen. Low-mid-90s fastball and power slider combination make him nearly impossible for left-handers to hit, and helped him post a video-game like 8.73 K/BB ratio over two levels in 2009. Profiles as a late-inning power arm. Grade B-

33. Yorman Rodriguez, 17.8, CF (CIN)- Signed for $2.5 million in 2008, Rodriguez has the ceiling to match anyone on this list. He's an above average athlete who can play center, and he has the bat speed to become an impact player offensively. Still just 17, Rodriguez is obviously a long way away. Grade B-

34. Daryl Jones*, 22.9, CF (STL)- The best athlete in the Cardinals' system, Jones had a scholarship offer to wide receiver at Rice. Since undergoing LASIK eye surgery in 2007, Jones has displayed a much better approach at the plate. That patient approach, coupled with Jones' plus-plus speed make him an ideal top-of-the-order table setter. Due to Jones' poor arm, he may be better suited for left field rather than center. He is a similar prospect to Michael Brantley. Probably more of a second-division regular, but don't sleep on the athleticism. Grade B-

35. Chris Carpenter, 24.3, RHS (CHC)- Carpenter has always shown great stuff, but two major elbow surgeries while he was at Kansas State caused him to drop t the third round. He has been healthy as a pro, showing a low-90s fastball with sink, and two usable off-speed pitches in his curve and change. If Carpenter can stay healthy he should become a solid 3rd/4th starter. Grade B-

36. Travis Wood, 23.2, LHS (CIN)- Wood's career had stagnated in 2008, but the addition of a cutter to his repertoire has revitalized his career. Wood has always had an above average change, but the cutter has given him a way to keep right-handed hitters honest. At only 5-foot-11 165, there are some concerns about his durability, but he has stayed healthy as a pro. Wood should win the Reds' 5th starters spot to start the year, but I don't think his ceiling is any higher than that of a 4th starter. Grade B-

37. Cody Scarpetta, 21.7, RHS (MIL)- Solid three-pitch repertoire, giving him a chance to become a 3rd/4th starter. Managers rated his curveball the Mid West League's best breaking ball, and he has enough fastball to keep hitter honest. There isn't much projection remaining, and Scarpetta will always have to stay on top of his conditioning. Grade B-

38. Brad Boxberger, 21.10, RHP (CIN)- Boxberger started and closed in college, and scouts seem split on where his pro future lies (although it appears a majority likes him better out of the pen). I happen to agree, and think his fastball/curve combo would make him a solid set-up man. However, it appears the Reds will develop him as a starter. Grade B-

39. Eduardo Sanchez, 21.2, RHR (STL)- Only 5'11" 155, but he has one of the liveliest arms on this list. Reminds me a lot of Leo Nunez. Should be a valuable bullpen arm for the Cardinals, perhaps as soon as the end of 2010. Grade B-

40. Jeremy Jeffress, 22.6, RHR (MIL)- One pure talent alone, Jeffress would rank near the top of this list. However, one has to wonder if baseball is a priority for him. He was suspended in 2009 for testing positive for Marijuana. His third positive test, Jeffress drew a 100 game suspension which will keep him sidelined for the start of 2010. If he tests positive again he will receive a lifetime ban. When Jeffress is on the mound he shows one of the best arms in all of baseball. His clean delivery produces mid-90s fastball, and some have clocked him as high as 100. His curve is a big breaker, but he struggles to command it. His change is, for all intensive purposes, nonexistent. Judging by the time he has missed due to suspension and his lack of command, I think Jeffress may ultimately move to the pen. If he can stay away from the drugs he could be a dominating late-inning reliever. Grade B-

41. Kentrail Davis*, 21.9, CF (MIL)- A potential top 10 pick entering the 2009 season, the draft-eligible sophomore had a poor season and dropped out of the first round. Davis garners some Kirby Puckett comparisons for his small but powerful frame, speed, and power. He needs to improve his pitch recognition and discipline, but he has all the physical tools to become a star. I'm not buying Davis quite yet. Grade B-

42. David Freese, 26.11, 3B (STL)- At 27, there is obviously not a lot of projection remaining with Freese. He is what he is, but he brings some positive things to the table. He has the power to profile as an 18-22 homerun guy, although I don't think he'll be close to the 300 hitter he was in AAA (270 seem about right). In the field, Freese isn't going to win any gold gloves, but he can handle third. Strikes me as a perfect example of a second-division regular. Should be the Cardinals' opening day third baseman. Grade B-

43. Ryan Flaherty*, 23.8, 2B/3B (CHC)- Flaherty put up big numbers in the Mid West League, but it's important to remember that as a three-year college player that is to be expected. Still, the bat looks solid, especially if he can handle second defensively. If he can't he could become a left-handed Mark Derosa. Already 23.8, Flaherty should reach AA at some point during the year. Grade B-

44. Tanner Bushue, 18.9, RHS (HOU)- Extremely projectable high school right-hander from Illinois. He's raw, and will likely spend 2010 in the Appalachian League. However, in a system lacking high upside arms, Bushue is a name worth following. Grade B-

45. Chris Heisey, 25.4, RF (CIN)- Drafted out of Messiah College in the 17th round of the 2006 draft, Heisey had a huge year at AA in 2009. Despite having an unorthodox swing, he consistently squares the ball up. Most feel that he won't have more than 15 homerun power in the big leagues, and he doesn't have the range to play center. Already 25, he's behind the developmental curve. I wouldn't count on Heisey as a big league regular, but he could carve out a niche as a 4th outfielder. Grade B-

46. Starling Marte, 21.6, CF (PIT)- Marte made the jump from the DSL to the Sally Leaue last year and handled himself very well. His biggest asset is his plus-plus speed, making him a legitimate center fielder and a threat on the base paths. At the plate, scouts love his bat speed and think power is on the way. Like many young hitter, his approach needs work, but it's tough not to like the tools. It's worth noting that his numbers were aided by a 400 BABIP. Grade B-

47. Kyler Burke*, 21.11, RF/1B (CHC)- The Cubs discussed moving him to the mound after he struggled with the bat in 2008, but he was adamant that he get one more shot as a position player. The Cubs decided to stick with him, and Burke rewarded their faith. He has always had a good approach at the plate, but he showed more power and a better hit tool in 2009. A solid athlete, Burke is a solid defender in right. I'm not as high on Burke as some, mainly due to the fact that he is very experienced for the MWL and to play right you really have to hit. I want to see another solid offensive season before I bite on Burke. Grade C+

48. Logan Watkins*, 20.7, 2B (CHC)- A Kansas State commitment coming out of high school, it took the Cubs $500,000 to sign him in 2008. An all-state quarterback and defensive back in high school, Watkins is a very good athlete. He is still learning to play second, but he has the range and arm to be a plus defender there. At the plate, Watkins shows a good approach and the ability to make contact. However, there isn't much power there. He profiles as a top of the order table-setter. I like him as a sleeper heading into 2010. Grade C+

49. Lance Lynn, 22.11, RHS (STL)- I really think this guy is overrated. He has the reputation of being a good sinkerballer, but his GO/AO ratio of only 1.10 simply doesn't support that. Furthermore, he doesn't strike many guys out, and he walks a fair amount for a command/control guy. He still is a potential starter, but I don't think he'll be more than a back-of-the-rotation starter. Grade C+

50. John Gaub, 24.11, LHR (CHC)- Acquired from Cleveland in the Mark DeRosa trade, Gaub has the makings of a great left-handed reliever. His strikeout rates have been awesome in the minor leagues, and he shows the ability to get both lefties and righties out. Gaub has excellent velocity, sittting 93-96 and his curve and change both flash plus. He will need to shore up his command, but he should be a valuable part of the 2010 Cubs bullpen. Grade C+

51. Mark Rogers, 24.2, RHP (MIL)- The 5th overall pick in the 2004 draft, it once looked as though Rogers may never pitch again after missing the entire 2007 and 2008 seasons due to arm surgeries. Rogers came back in 2009 and showed the plus stuff that he had pre-injury. His fastball sat 93-96. Although he didn't throw his off-speed stuff much, when he did both looked like future solid-average to plus offerings. He still uses an across his body delivery, so the threat of injury will always be there, but it is hard to find guys who can match Rogers' pure stuff. The Brewers were very careful with his workload in 2009. I think he may ultimately profile better in the bullpen, both from a physical and baseball standpoint. Grade C+

 

Honorable Mention (In no particular order):

Victor Black, 21.10, RHP (PIT)- Top college arm from the lone star state in 2009 draft. Fastball and slider make him a potential late-inning option out of the pen, but will be developed as a starter. 

Robert Stock*, 20.4, C (STL)- Baseball America's Youth Player of the Year in 2005, Stock graduated from high school a year early and enrolled at USC. He struggled with the bat over his three year college career and most scouts like him on the mound, but he prefers to catch. Got off to a good start with the bat in pro debut. Lot of upside here, but I think there is still a decent chance he winds up on the mound.

Tim Alderson, 21.5, RHS (PIT)- A former top 100 prospect, the Pirates acquired him for Freddy Sanchez. However, his velocity dipped into the mid-to-upper-80s range in 2009. The Pirates are confident that his velocity will come back once he improves his mechanics. Great pitchability guy. Could be a solid 4th starter.

Gorkys Hernandez, 22.7, CF (PIT)- Acquired in the Nate McLouth trade from Atlanta, Hernandez struggled after the trade. He has dealt with hamstring injuries the past couple of seasons, which has taken away his greatest asset- his speed. He needs to get stronger and improve his approach to avoid become a reserve outfield. Still young enough to do so. 

Books Raley, 21.9, LHS (CHC)- One of my personal favorites from the 2009 draft. Raley was a two-way player at Texas A&M, but his pro future is on the mound. He sits 87-90 with good sink, but has gotten up to 93 and could approach that velocity now that he is concentrating on pitching. I think he will be a solid 4th starter.

Sammy Gervacio, 25.3, RHR (HOU)- Unique delivery makes him very tough on righties. I don't think he is more than a middle reliever, but he is already a valuable piece of the Astros pen.

 

System Rankings:

1. Milwaukee Brewers (4*)- One of the most balanced systems in the game. Escobar, Gamel, and Lucroy are bats who should help in 2010, and there is a plethora of high-upside arms in the low minors. I think Arnett was a steal where the Brewers got him, and Odorizzi, Heckathorn, Peralta, and Scarpetta are all solid prospects. If Jeffress can stay away from Marijuana, he could become an impact late-inning arm. Rogers looks like he could help, although health is still a concern. I liked their 2009 draft a lot. Even though Max Walla got off to a rough start, I wouldn't give up on him yet. The Brewers had thirteen players on the top 51 list: (A-, B+, 3B, 7 B-, 1 C+). The five Brewers next in line to be written up were: Lorenzo Cain, Angel Salome, Logan Schaffer, Brooks Hall, and D'Vontrey Richardson. System Sleeper: D'Vontrey Richardson- The former Florida State football player, Richardson didn't play much baseball his sophomore or junior seasons, but he is an exceptional athlete with five legitimate tools. 

2. Chicago Cubs (3*)- There is more risk in this system than in most, as the talent is in the low minors, but this system also has the potential to produce several impact players. As his ranking indicates, I'm a big believer in StarlinCastro, and the Cubs have the luxury of also having another solid shortstop prospect in Hak-Ju Lee. Beyond those two Darwin Barney, DJ LeMahieu, and Ryan Flaherty give the Cubs rare depth in the middle infield. I think Cashner is better suited to be a reliever long-term, but I still like him. Jay Jackson was a great find in the 9th round, and he and Chris Carpenter could be solid mid-rotation, perhaps both pitching in the big leagues in 2011. The Cubs had 12 players in the top 51 (A-, B+, 3B, 4B-, 3 C+). The five who just missed being written up were: Blake Parker, DJ LeMahieu, Chris Archer, Darwin Barney, and Trey McNutt. System Sleeper: Blake Parker- Former catcher has big time velocity and good sink on his fastball. His secondary stuff is raw, but I think he will be a solid relief option perhaps as soon as the second half of 2010.

3. Cincinnati Reds (3*)- This may be the 2013 team to beat in the NL Central. With Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, and Edison Vosquez establishing themselves in the big leagues and Chapman and Leake arriving in the next year or two, the Reds have the makings of a very solid rotation. The lineup should be solid as well, although it will be interesting to see how the team tries to get Votto, Alonso, Francisco, and Frazier in the same lineup. I'm not as big on guys like Travis Wood and Chris Heisey as many seem to be, but both should contribute in the majors in 2010. This system is strong 1-10, but the 11+ depth is fairly weak. The Reds had nine players in the top 51 (A-, 2B+, B, 5 B-). The five reds who just missed being written up were: Zach Cozart, Billy Hamilton, Matt Maloney, Mariekson Gregorius, and Miguel Rojas. System Sleeper: Neftali Soto- Looked to be on the fast track after big 2008, but struggled in 2009. Needs to improve his approach, but the offensive tools are there. I hope the Reds try him behind the plate.

4. Pittsburgh Pirates (3*)- This system is lacking in impact talent outside of Pedro Alvarez, but they have been aggressive the last two drafts in the later rounds trying to find such players. However, the early returns on those players have been somewhat disappointing. Robbie Grossman and Quinton Miller only had so-so full-season debuts, but it is obviously too early to close the book on them. I like Von Rosenberg, but I'm not yet sold on Pounders, Cain, or Evan Chambers. Although I don't mind the strategy of going with Sanchez 4th overall to free up the money in the later rounds. I think the main problem with this system is the return they have gotten in trades. They have given up some substantial talent in the last two years, but they haven't gotten a whole lot back. The Pirates had seven players in the top 51 (A-, 2B, 4B-). The five Pirates who just missed being written up were: Colton Cain, Brooks Pounders, Jeff Locke, Rudy Owens, and Quinton Miller. System Sleeper: Jeff Locke- Acquired in the Nate McLouth trade, Locke had an up-and-down 2009 season. His mechanics are rough, but he has a live arm and gets some groundballs. If he can smooth out his mechanics a bit, I could see him as a solid 4th starter. 

5. Houston Astros (2*)- This system rivals only the White Sox and Cardinals for lack of depth in the 11+ range. An argument could be made to have the Astros as a one-star system, but I like Castro, Mier, and Lyles enough to keep them at the two-star level. Outside of those three, the system gets pretty rough. I like Bushue, but he is a long ways away. I'm not as high on Seaton. He doesn't have his high school velocity, and his lack of secondary stuff hurts his ability to succeed as a pitchability guy. Outside of those five, the system offers little outside of relief arms and outfielders who look like reserves. The Astros had 4 players in the top 51 (3 B+, 1 B-). The five stros who just missed being written up were: Ross Seaton, Chai-Jen Lo, Tommy Manzella, TJ Steele, and Jay Austin. System Sleeper: TJ Steele- Missed a lot of time last year due to a hamstring injury, but he has an impressive blend of tools. He's not a burner, but plays a great center field. If he can become more patient he could make himself into a second-division regular. 

6. St. Louis Cardinals (1*)- This is not a good system. I like Shelby Miller, but there isn't much after him. Jamie Garcia should help solidify the Cardinals' big league rotation, and Freese will play third, but neither offer any kind of star potential. As previously stated, I think Lance Lynn is overrated. Daryl Jones is a great athlete, and Eduardo Sanchez and Francisco Samuel have power arms, but all three are far from sure things. Some like Allen Craig as an underrated bat, but your team is in real trouble if he is getting more regular playing time. The Cardinals major league team looks poised for another playoff berth, but they shouldn't be expecting much help over the coming years. The Cardinals had six players in the top 51: (1 B+, 1 B, 3 B-, 1 C+). The five Cardinals who just missed being written up were Allen Craig, Francisco Samuel, Pete Kozma, Daniel Descalso, and Adron Chambers. System Sleeper: Pete Kozma- The 2007 first round pick disappointed with the bat in 2009, but his approach was still sound. He still rates strong defensively, and I think he's better than he showed with the bat last year. 

 

Poll

Who has the best system in the NL Central?

22%

Milwaukee Brewers

14 votes

14%

Chicago Cubs

9 votes

39%

Cincinnati Reds

24 votes

22%

Pittsburgh Pirates

14 votes

61 votes | Poll has closed

I always enjoy looking back on those players who have recently lost their prospect eligibility but have been unable to establish themselves at the big league level. This year there seem to be several outfielders who fit this description- Matt LaPorta, Travis Snider*, Jordan Schafer*, Drew Stubbs*, Cameron Maybin, Gerardo Parra*, Carlos Gomez, Travis Buck*, Aaron Cunningham, Wil Venable*, Nate Schierholtz*, Matt Joyce*, and Wladimir Balentien. If these guys were still prospect eligible how would you grade them, and how would you rank them?

I would go:

 

1. Travis Snider*, 22.2, LF (TOR)- Got off to a slow start, then ripped up AAA upon demotion, and looked a lot better when he was recalled. He's a better athlete than he's given credit for, although he is an average at best defender in left. The strikeouts concern me, and he has struggled against lefties throughout his career. However, those blemishes are more than made up for by his patient approach and power potential. He's still 22, so there is plenty of room for improvement upon his 2009 numbers. I think he'll be a guy who makes a couple of all star teams, and has a solid career as a 6. Grade A-

2. Cameron Maybin, 23.0, CF (FLA)- Strikeouts continue to plague him at the major league level, but he really cut them down in AAA. The 5-tool potential is still there, and he is just 23. Both CHONE and Bill James project him for a .355 wOBA in 2009. I think that might be a bit high for 2010, but not too far off the mark. There is a higher bust potential here, than with Snider or LaPorta, but I think there is a good chance his is an above-average major league center fielder. Grade B+

3. Matt LaPorta, 25.3, LF/1B (CLE)- Position is still up in the air. Looks like a below average defensive left-fielder, but I like the bat. He looks like more of a 20-25 homerun hitter- rather than a true slugger- but he doesn't strikeout much, and he has the patient approach to put up solid OBP numbers. I don't think he is going to be the star that he looked like 2 years ago, but he should be a regular left-fielder for a long time. Grade B+

4. Jordan Schafer*, 23.7, CF (ATL)- The Braves thought he was big league ready, naming him their opening day center fielder, despite the fact he had not yet reached AA. However, he struggled mightily, striking out in almost 40 percent of his at-bats. In fairness, he was battling through a wrist injury that ultimately ended his season in June, but it's hard to find many positives in his debut. Billed as an impressive defender in center, Schafer put up a -8 UZR/150, granted in very small sample size. Though I think he still should be considered at least an average defender. With the moves the big club has made, it looks like they have the luxury of starting him in AAA. I still think he is a future regular, but the star potential seems to have diminished. Grade B

5. Drew Stubbs*, 25.6, CF (CIN)- Speed, patience, and the glove to win several gold glove awards. However, I am concerned about high strikeout totals and a lack of power throughout his minor league career (despite getting strong grades for his raw power). I think we can expect a .260/335/390 lines from Stubbs, with gold-glove caliber defense. That package adds up to a solid major league center fielder. Grade B

6. Carlos Gomez, 24.4, CF (MIL)- Regression with the bat in 2009 was fueled by a near 50 point dip in BABIP. That dip came with a 2 percent increase in line-drive rate, and served to mask improvements in plate-discipline and strikeout rate. I doubt he will ever eclipse the 15 homerun plateau, but I think 8-12 is realistic going forward. He is a plus defender in center, and a guy I think a lot of people have given up too early on. I think the Brewers will be pleasantly surprised by Gomez in 2010. Grade B

7. Matt Joyce*, 25.8, RF (TB)- I'm sure the Rays wish they had a do-over on the Jackson-for-Joyce swap of a year ago, but Joyce is a valuable piece. He has big-time power, and he is willing to walk. He struggles against lefties, and his swing can get long, so he profiles as a platoon player rather than a true regular. However, there is a lot of value in that. Grade B-

8. Gerardo Parra*, 22.11, CF (ARZ)- Held his own in close to 500 major league plate appearances, but I'm not a big fan going forward. He needs a right-handed caddy going forward, as his .220/.250/.220 triple slash line isn't going to get it done against lefties. Furthermore, he is a below-average defender in center, with an impatient approach and little power. He is obviously still young enough to improve, but he is always a second-division regular/platoon outfielder for me. Grade B-

9. Aaron Cunningham, 23.11, LF/RF (SD)- Never a big tools guy, Cunningham continues to produce. He put up an OPS's of 894 and 851 in the last two seasons, and there doesn't seem to be much left for him to prove in the minors. Acquired in the Kevin Kuzmanoff trade, Cunningham may make a nice platoon with Will Venable. There isn't much star potential, but Cunningham should become at least a solid 4th outfielder, with an outside chance that he becomes a regular. Grade B-

10. Nate Schierholtz*, 26.2, RF (SFG)- 2009 was the third year in which Schierholtz played in the majors, but it is still unclear as to what his ultimate role is. He put up back-to-back isolated powers of above .220 in AAA in 2007 and 2008, but he is yet to show that kind of power in the big leagues. While he doesn't strikeout much, he is an impatient hitter who rarely draws a walk, putting even more pressure on him to hit for power. Unlike Venable, Parra, and Joyce, Schierhotz has hung in well against left-handers over his big league career, so he doesn't profile as a utility player. UZR likes his defense in right, but we still have under 1,000 innings of pro data to go on. I think Schierholtz will hit for more power in 2010, but I never see him becoming a true regular. Grade B- 

11. Will Venable*, 27.5, RF (SD)- The oldest member of this list, Venable was an all-ivy selection in both basketball and baseball while at Princeton. He is a plus athlete, who can play all three outfield spots, although he is best suited in the corners, where he profiles as a plus defender. At the plate, he has the raw power to hit 20-25 homeruns a year. However, he struck out in over 30 percent of his plate appearances and never projects to hit for average. Like Joyce, he struggles against lefties and profiles as a solid platoon option. Grade B- 

12. Wladimir Balentien, 25.9, RF (CIN)- Acquired for Robert Manuel in July, Balentien improved upon his 2008 line, but still posted a below 700 OPS in 2009. Balentien's biggest problem has been his poor pitch recognition skills, although he did cut his strikeout rate by 6 percent in 2009. Once considered a top 100 prospect, Baletien still has the tools to become a major league regular, but the chances of that seem to be fading quickly. He is competing with Chris Dickerson, Johny Gomes, and Lance Nix for regular playing time in left field. Grade B-

13. Travis Buck*, 26.5, RF (OAK)- Looked like a potential all star after solid debut in 2007, but injuries and ineffectiveness have dogged him since. Looks like a reserve outfielder at this point. Grade C+

Poll

Who will have the best major league career?

45%

Travis Snider

93 votes

25%

Cameron Maybin

52 votes

14%

Matt LaPorta

30 votes

5%

Jordan Schafer

12 votes

8%

Drew Stubbs

17 votes

204 votes | Poll has closed

I've finished my AL Rankings (culminating in my AL Top 150 link) and my NL West list (link). A 5-star system roughly correlates to a top 4 system, 4-star top 5-10 range, 3-star 11-20, 2-star 21-26, 1-star 27-30. For player grading I basically use John's system rankings (although I may be a bit more generous, particularly with the B- guys). An A is a top 4-8 player, A- Top 20-25, B+ Top 65, B Top 135, B- Top 240. All Ages are of Opening Day. In the sleeper section, I try to tab guys outside of each system's top 15. 

 

1. Stephen Strasburg, 21.8, RHS (WAS)- Once in a generational talent. An 80 fastball, two legitimate plus/plus-plus off-speed pitches in his curve and change and a solid-average slider. He profiles as a true ace, and a perennial Cy Young candidate. A lot people put Heyward above him, citing the increased injury risks that pitchers face. That is certainly a legitimate concern. However, Strasburg strikes me as a the harder prospect to find. Every couple of years there is an impact bat coming through the minor leagues- Evan Longoria, Matt Wieters, and now Jason Heyward, but guys like Strasburg only come around every decade or so. He's the type of player that when he is on the mound, his team should expect to win. He'll likely start the year in the minor leagues, but as long as he stays healthy he should reach the majors for good at some point during the season. Grade A

2. Jason Heyward, 20.8, RF (ATL)- Potential impact player. The approach, hit tool, and power are all there for him to a become a middle-of-the-order run producer for a long time. He projects as a plus defender in right, and he has the speed to steal 8-12 bases a year. Just needs to stay healthy. Grade A

3. Mike Stanton, 20.5, RF (FLA)- On pure upside, Stanton rates right with Strasburg and Heyward, but his rawness keeps him a tier below those two. He has the raw power to hit 50 homeruns a year. The question is whether he can cut down (or at least keep constant) his strikeouts. He's a better athlete than he's given credit for. Pete Carroll extended a walk-on offer to him as a DB/WR. I think Stanton will be a middle of the order slugger, profiling as a 6 or 7, but the risk keeps me from giving him a straight A. Grade A-

4. Jenrry Mejia, 20.6, RHS (NYM)- True front of the rotation potential- fastball that gets up to 96 with some regularity with great sink, allowing him to rack up a 2.49 GO/AO ratio across two levels last year. His secondary stuff is inconsistent, but he flashes a plus change and a solid-average curve. Plus, at only 20, it's not unusual that his secondary pitches are unrefined. He's very athletic on the mound, and reports are that his conditioning is superb. He strikes me as a 2 starter. Grade A-

5. Logan Morrison*, 22.7, 1B (FLA)- One of the most patient hitters in the minors, Morrison walked in 18.4 percent of his AA plate appearances, while striking out in only 16.5 percent of his ABs. His level swing and opposite-field oriented approach do not lend themselves for big power numbers, but Morrison should hit 20+ homeruns with a lot of gap power. He may not be as good of a prospect as Justin Smoak, but I think it is a lot closer than most realize. Grade B+

6. Domonic Brown*, 22.7, RF (PHI)- Long-limbed athlete, Brown has the potential to be a 5-tool difference maker. However, after seeing him in the AFL, I'm a bit more bearish on him. His has bat speed, but his swing is very unorthodox, and I have some concerns about his ability to hit big league pitching. I think he is a long-term 6, but he might need 2 more years in the minors. Grade B+

7. Julio Teheran, 19.2, RHS (ATL)- Electric fastball, and he has shown enough with his secondary stuff that envisioning him becoming a front-of-the-rotation starter. Furthermore, he's athletic, and there is projection remaining in his frame. He's more advanced than Vizcaino, and his frame is a bit better, so he gets the nod. Grade B+

8. Arodys Vizcaino, 19.5, RHS (ATL)- Acquired in the Javier Vasquez trade, like Teheran, Vizcaino has the raw stuff to profile as a front-of-the-rotation starter. His fastball sits 90-94, and he puts hitter away with a swing-and-miss curve. His change is a work in progress at this stage but no reason to be too concerned. At only 6'0" he's short for a righty, but it's tough to look past the stuff. Grade B+

9. Derek Norris, 21.2, C (WAS)- Great combination of plate-discipline and power. If he can stick behind the plate he could be a real force, but he led the Sally League in both errors and passed balls, so it is far from a sure thing. He broke his hammate bone in instructional league, so depressed power numbers in 2009 wouldn't be a surprise. Grade B+

10. Freddie Freeman*, 20.7, 1B (ATL)- Robin to Heyward's Batman, Freeman is a very good prospect in his own right. Poor AA numbers should be discounted due to wrist injury. May never hit many more than 20-25 homeruns, but he should hit for average and play great defense at first. He reminds me a lot of Mark Grace. Grade B+

11. Wilmer Flores, 18.8, 3B/RF (NYM)- Saying that Flores is on the fast track would be an understatement. At only 17, the Mets through him into the full-season-ball fire. And Flores held his own. While he did not hit for any power, scouts are confident that it will come. Furthermore, he showed a great feel for hitting, striking out in under 15 percent of his ABs. He's far away, but he has the potential to become an impact player. Grade B

12. Matt Dominguez, 20.7, 3B (FLA)- Potential gold glove winner at third, I'm not yet sold about the bat. He's young enough to make adjustments, but it would be foolish to expect a replication of his 2008 season line. Should be a solid regular, but it might take him 2-3 years in the minors before he's ready with the bat. Grade B

13. Mike Minor, 22.3, LHS (ATL)- Might not have been the best pick for the Braves at 7th overall, but he's generally underrated. Plus change, average FB, a serviceable breaking ball, and good pitchability make him a safe bet to become a 3rd or 4th starter. He strikes me as Brian Matusz light, and it wouldn't surprise me to see him start 2011 in the major leagues. Grade B

14. Fernando Martinez*, 21.6, RF/LF (NYM)- Hard to believe he is still only 21. I don't think Martinez will ever be a star, but he should be a solid corner outfielder. I think he would benefit from starting the year in AAA, but that seems unlikely. I could see .290/360/500 lines from him at his peak. Grade B

15. Drew Storen, 22.8, RHR (WAS)- Good stuff, great control and command. I think people are getting too caught up in the numbers from his debut. He looks like a future closer, but it's not the lock that the community seems to think it is. He should spend the majority of 2010 in the minors. Grade B

16. Randall Delgado, 20.2, RHS (ATL)- Got off to a rough start but finished strong with a 65-9 K/BB ratio over his final 16 starts. Lacks the top-end stuff of Teheran and Vizcaino, but he should be a solid 3rd starter. Grade B 

17. Danny Espinosa#, 22.11, SS (WAS)- After really impressing in the AFL, it looks like he is set to continue the impressive track-record of Long Beach State short stops. He walks, has some pop, and plays a good short. He's not going to be a star, but he should be a solid shortstop for a longtime. One concern is the high strikeout rate. Grade B

18. Ike Davis*, 23.0, 1B (NYM)- Underrated at this time last year, overrated now. Good raw power and solid approach should make him a regular, but I'm worried about the strikeouts. Some scouts have expressed concerns over his long swing. Probably another year and a half away from big league ready. Grade B

19. Juan Carlos (JC) Ramirez, 21.8, RHS (PHI)- Highest ranked of the three players the Phillies got back for Cliff Lee, Ramirez draws comparisons to Jose Contreras for his sturdy frame and repertoire. On pure stuff, Ramirez profiles as a 3rd starter, but his low 3/4 deliver and fringy change make him a bullpen candidate. If he were to move to the pen, he would be a potential closer. Grade B

20. Jon Niese, 23.5, LHS (NYM)- Not a sexy name, but a valuable pitcher. Gets ground balls, throws strikes, and strikes out enough guys out to profile in the middle of a big league rotation (most likely as a 4). There is very little chance Niese is a star, but he's major league ready (provided he's healthy). Grade B

21. Chad James, 19.2, LHS (FLA)- 2009 first rounder sits 90-92 with an advanced change and a developing breaking ball. There are some issues in his delivery, but nothing too serious. Profiles as a 3rd starter. Grade B-

22. Phillippe Aumont, 21.3, RHR (PHI)- I imagine others are higher on him than I am, but I'm reluctant to rank minor league relievers highly. He has good stuff (although I question the assertion that he has a great sinker- 1.4 GO/AO in 2009). You have to love the velocity and size, but I don't see what has everyone so excited about him. Grade B-

23. Ian Desmond, 24.6, SS (WAS)- Tools to be a good defender, although he will occasionally lose his focus, leading to careless errors. The bat should play at short, although it would be foolish to expect him to repeat his high-BABIP fueled 2009 numbers. I think he's a regular, but not a guy a winning team is likely to have starting at short everyday. Grade B-

24. Tyson Gillies, 21.5, CF (PHI)- Canadian native has legitimate 80 speed, allowing him to cover swaths of ground in the outfield as well as rack up big stolen base totals. He's not going to repeat his high desert line in AA, but he has a the patient approach to profile as a major league leadoff hitter. Just in watching the Futures Game, he struck me as a guy who plays a bit out of control. Grade B-

25. Christian Bethancourt, 18.7, C (ATL)- Very impressive numbers in APP and GCL. He has the defensive tools to shutdown opposing running games, and the bat to hit for both average and power. I'm bullish on Bethancourt, but I want to see how he handles full season ball before going higher. Grade B-

26. Trevor May, 20.6, RHS (PHI)- At 6'5" 215, May has an ideal pitcher's frame. He has picked up some velo as a pro, and the Phillies hope that he has a few more in him. Right now, May sits in the low 90s, while hitting 94-95 a couple of times. The hope is that as he logs more innings he will reach that velocity consistently. His change and curve are potential plus pitches, but like most young hurlers, both are a ways away. I like May's upside, but I'm concerned about his command and lack of ground balls. Grade B-

 27. Sebastian Valle, 19.8, C (PHI)- Struggled in Sally League, but came to life in the New York Penn League. Scouts love his bat speed, and he handles the breaking ball well for a young hitter. Valle is probably a better bet to hit than Bethancourt, but Valle is a fringe-average defender behind the plate, so I give the edge to Bethancourt. Grade B-

28. Craig Kimbrel, 21.10, RHR (ATL)- Stuff to close, but questions about delivery and command prevent a higher ranking. On the positive side, the Braves love his makeup and think he is well-suited for handling late-inning pressure. Kimbrel will likely make his major league debut at some point during the year. Grade B-

29. Ruben Tejada, 20.5, SS (NYM)- After putting up a sub 600 OPS in the FSL in 2008, it was expected that the Mets would let Tejada repeat the league, but surprise surprise! The Mets chose to be aggressive and promote Tejada to AA. As a 19-year-old, Tejada held his own, putting up career highs in several categories. While he doesn't project as a star, Tejada can pick it at short, and his bat should be enough to hold down a starting job (although he is likely going to be more of a second division regular). I can't see him becoming anything less than a utility player. Grade B-

30. Jeff Kobernus, 21.9, 2B (WAS)- The National's second round pick, Kobernus played 3rd his first two years at Cal, but he impressed at 2nd his junior year. He isn't a burner, but he's a good athlete who could steal double digit bases. While his swing is geared more for line drives, 15-20 homeruns wouldn't be out of the questions. Grade B-

31. Zeke Spruill, 20.7, RHS (ATL)- Spruill pounds the zone with 89-91 mph fastballs, a curve, and a fringy change. At 6'4" 185, there is projection remaining in his frame, but he is never likely to be more than a 4th starter (although he is safer than most young starters). Grade B-

32. Jarred Cosart, 19.10, RHS (PHI)- Above-slot 2008 signing, Cosart has the ceiling of 2nd starter. His fastball sits 92-94, and many scouts envision his 12-6 curve becoming a plus pitch in the future. His change and questions about his maturity are reason for concern, but he is a sleeper who could open some eyes in 2010. Grade B-

33. Anthony Gose*, 19.8, CF (PHI)- One of the toolsiest players in the division, Gose hit 97 off the mound in high school, but he wanted to play in the field as a pro. He is an 80 runner, who stole 76 bases in 2009 and has the potential to become a plus-plus defender in center. He doesn't have much power to speak of, and he needs to make strides with his approach and pitch recognition skills to take full advantage of his speed. He reminds me a lot of Michael Bourn and could have a similar career. Grade B-

34. Jiwan James#, 21.0, CF (PHI)- Originally drafted as a pitcher, James turned to hitting in 2009 after a stress fracture in his forearm didn't heal as expected. Considering how impressive he was as a hitter in 2009, it's hard to believe that he wasn't moved sooner. A switch-hitter, James has excellent bat speed, and at 6-foot-4 he is a much better bet to hit for power than Gose or Gillies. He was an all-state football and basketball player in high school, and in a system filled with athletes, James stands out. He is a legitimate center fielder, and a potential 5-tool player. James is one of the biggest sleepers in the minors. I expect him to burst onto the scene in 2010. Grade B-

35. J.J. Hoover, 22.8, RHS (ATL)- There isn't much projection remaining, so what you see is pretty much what you get- a low 90s FB, and two solid off-speed pitches in his curve and change. Hoover is a pretty safe bet to become a number 4 starter, and it wouldn't surprise me to see him reach AA in 2010. Grade B-

36. Reese Havens, 23.5, 2B (NYM)- A short stop all of last year, indications are that the Mets plan to move him over to second for the 2010 season. At second Havens should be fine defensively, as his problems at short were arm and range. Havens has a solid approach, and good pop for a middle infielder. I think his numbers were depressed by injuries and the pitcher-friendly FSL. I look for him to have a strong bounce back year in 2010, and it wouldn't surprise me to see Havens as the Mets 2011 starting second baseman. Grade B-

37. Chris Marrero, 21.9, 1B (WAS)- Put up good numbers in the Carolina league and then built off that with a solid AFL performance, but questions about his swing remain. He's still young enough to make the necessary adjustments, but most talent evaluators seem to view him as a second-division regular. Grade C+

38. Kyle Allen, 20.2, RHS (NYM)- Another guy I think is underrated. Gets ground balls, strikeouts, and has the projection to grow into some more velo. Probably a 4th starter, but a guy to keep an eye on. Grade C+

39. Antonio Bastardo, 24.6, LHP (PHI)- I'm not really sure what to make of Bastardo. He has got a live arm and a good change, but his slider is fringy. Furthermore, he has yet to show he can hold up for a full season, and at only 5-foot-11, his body seems more suited for relief. He could be a valuable reliever starting in 2010, but I can't see him becoming much more than a 7th inning guy. Grade C+

40. Domingo Santana, 17.8, RF (PHI)- 6-foot-5, physical freak. Santana has been timed at 6.7 in the 60 yard dash, clocked at 90 off the mound, and he possesses the raw power to match anyone in the system. He did strikeout in 37 percent of his at-bats in 2009, but he was playing against much older competition. He has the tools to become an impact player, but he is a long ways away. Grade C+

41. Edwar Salcedo, 18.8, SS/3B/RF (ATL)- Tough to know what to make of him without any stats or much of a scouting report to go on. He's a short stop now, but is likely destined for a move to third or right in pro ball, although the reports seem to indicate that the bat will play at either position. It will be interesting to see where the Braves choose to start him. Grade C+

42. Ryan Tucker, 23.4, RHP (FLA)- A top prospect heading into 2009, Tucker seems to have become forgotten after missing most of 2009 with a knee injury. When he's healthy he has a 92-95 mph fastball and an average slider. He struggles with his command and tends to overthrow, but he could profile as a set-up guy. Grade C+

43. Brad Holt, 23.6, RHS (NYM)- After leading the NYP League in strikeouts in 2008, Holt disappointed in 2009. At 6-foot-4 194, Holt has a great starter's frame, and scouts like his mechanics, but his repertoire may be better suited for relief. He runs his fastball 90-94, but the pitch is true, making him susceptible to the long-ball. Furthermore, his change is far away and his curve is merely average. Grade C+

44. Scott Mathieson, 26.1, RHR (PHI)- Underwent 3 surgeries over a two year period, but appears to be healthy now. Fastball sits in the mid 90s, and he a usable slider and change. Provided he can stay healthy, he could profile at the back-end of a bullpen. He should break camp with the big club. Grade C+

45. Robinson Lopez, 19.1, RHS (ATL)- Seems to get lost among the likes of Teheran, Vizcaino, and Delgado, but Lopez is an intriguing prospect in his own right. He sits 90-94 with his fastball, and scouts love his free-and-easy delivery. His change and curve both show promise, with the curve being a potential plus pitch. He should begin 2010 in the Sally League. While he doesn't have the pure stuff to rate with the Braves' other Latin arms, he projects as a 3rd or 4th starter. Grade C+

46. Kirk Nieuwenhuis*, 22.8, RF (NYM)- At 6-foot-3 210 pounds, Nieuwenhuis is a well-built athlete. While he is not a real plus runner, he is a good baserunner, and he plays a passable center (although he will likely have to move over if he slows down any). At the plate, Nieuwenhuis shows a willingness to walk, but some scouts have expressed concern over how many times he swings and misses. Additional questions center on what his ultimate power potential is. He will likely have to move over to right in the big leagues, and most do not project him to hit more than 20 homeruns. Grade C+

47. Brad Hand, 20.0, LHS (FLA)- HOne of my personal favorites, Hand held his own pitching in hitter-friendly Greensboro. Even more impressive, coming out of Minnesota, Hand's has had less baseball experience than most pitchers his age. He sits in the low 90s with his fastball, but his secondary stuff is inconsistent. He is one of my breakout candidates for 2010. Grade C+

48. Josh Thole*, 23.5, C (NYM)- Poor defensive catchers without power due not usually become regulars, but Thole is an intriguing prospect. He employes an ultra-contact oriented approach and hardly ever strikes out. This approach allows him to hit for high averages, but the downside is that he hits for very little power, and he rarely works the count deep enough to take advantage of his good plate-discipline. The Rod Barajas signing likely means that Thole will at least start 2010 in AAA, but he should get some major league time before the year is over. I think he is more of a good backup than a regular. Grade C+

49. Scott Cousins*, 25.2, CF/RF (FLA)- He has the tools to become a regular, but he's getting up there in age and it's about time to see the numbers match the tools. Like Nieuwehuis, Cousins can play a passable center but is not a guy you would want playing there everyday. He doesn't walk a lot, so he will need to tap into his raw power to profile in the corners. A potential 20-20 guy, he actually reminds me some of Cody Ross, but I think he's more of a 4th outfielder than a regular. Grade C+

50. Brett DeVall, 20.3, LHS (ATL)- The Braves' first round pick in 2008, DeVall hasn't been able to stay healthy as a pro. Scouts are mystified, because he has very clean mechanics. At 6-foot-4 215, DeVall has a great starter's frame, and solid three pitch mix, including a 89-91 mph fastball and a potential plus curve. Indications are the DeVall will be healthy for spring training, but elbow issues are always concerning. Grade C+

51. Eury Perez, 19.10, CF (WAS)- Perez put up big numbers in the GCL in 2009, but seems to still be under-the-radar. His best tool is his plus-plus speed, which he uses well in the outfield, but he is still learning to take advantage of it one the base-paths. Perez never projects to hit for much power, but he has a good hit tool and should hit near 300 throughout the minor leagues. It will be interesting to see how Perez handles the jump to full season ball in 2010. He has the ceiling of a regular, but he is a long way away. Grade C+

Honorable Mentions (In No Particular Order):

Brody Colvin, 19.8, RHS (PHI)- Over-slot sign from 2009 draft has a projectable frame and low 90s velocity, but his secondary stuff is very raw.

Bryan Petersen*, 24.0, CF (FLA)- Grinder who ripped up the AFL. His tools may be a bit short for playing everyday, but his balanced tool-set should make him a very valuable reserve outfielder. Close to big league ready.

Jake Smolinski, 21.2, 3B/LF (FLA)- Acquired in the Scott Olsen trade, Smolinski is a bat without a position. Probably a left-fielder long-term, he will really need to hit, but he has a great approach and the raw power to hit 20+ homreuns.

Adam Milligan*, 22.1, LF (ATL)- Former football player, Milligan is a better athlete than the average slugger. He has big time raw power, but will need to improve his approach to profile in left.

Juan Urbina, 16.10, LHS (NYM)- Signed for $1.2 million, Urbina has a live arm and projection remaining. It is obviously too early to know what the Mets have in him, but he has the potential to sky-rocket up this list next year.

Jeurys Familia, 20.6, RHS (NYM)- Live arm, some sink on the fastball, and some projection remaining in the frame make him a name worth following, but secondary stuff is a long ways off.

 

System Rankings: 

1. Atlanta Braves (4*)- Heyward gives them an elite guy at the top of the system, and there is impressive depth throughout, especially on the pitching side. Teheran, Vizcaino are potential front-of-the-rotation arms, while Delgado, Minor, Spruill, Hoover, Lopez, DeVall, and Stovall are all legitimate starting prospects. The position prospects are weak outside of Heyward and Freeman, but guys like Milligan and Mycal Jones have a chance. The Braves had 13 players in the top 51 (1 A, 3 B+, 2 B, 4 B-, and 3 C+). The five players who just missed being written up were (in order): Tyler Stovall, Caleb Brewer, Mike Dunn, Mycal Jones, and Brett Oberholtzer. System Sleeper- Brett Oberholtzer- Funky delivery and great command make this left-hander a potential back-of-the-rotation starter. 

2. Washington Nationals (3*)- This ranking is in deference to Strasburg, because any system with him is automatically middle-of-the-pack. Outside of him, Norris, Espinosa, Storen, and Desmond all look like major league contributors, with the latter three likely to help in the near future, but Norris being the only one with much likelihood of being an impact player. The depth of the system is poor, due to the fact that a lot of the Nationals' high upside picks have struggled in pro ball (Burgess, McGeary, Nieto, Ramirez), but it is too early to give up on any quite yet. Scouts seem to like Desmond Hood, but I just don't see it. He's not a great athlete and he didn't show enough with the bat for me to project him as a regular in left. The Nationals had 8 prospects in the top 51 (1 A, 1 B+, 2 B, 2B-, and 2 C+). The five who just missed being written up were (in order): Destin Hood, Aaron Thompson, Justin Maxwell, Michael Burgess, and Bradley Myers). System Sleeper- Adrian Nieto- I liked him a lot coming out of high school in 2008, but he has really struggled as a pro. The plate discipline is there, and still believe that he can become a major league contributor. 

3. New York Mets (3*)- I was surprised with the quality of the Mets' system. I started this list assuming the Mets would have the worst system, but I was surprised with the quality of both their top end guys and the depth of the system. I am very high on Mejia, and while I don't love Flores, Martinez, or Davis, all three are solid prospects. Throw in a guy like Jon Niese and the Mets have a nice group at the top of the system. The 6-10 region of the system is a bit on the low-end, although Tejada and Havens are solid up-the-middle prospects. However, what really struck me about this system was the depth. There are a lot of high ceiling guys in the low minors- guys like- Juan Urbina, Jeurys Familia, Jefry Marte, Steve Mats, and Cesar Puello- and if just a couple pan out the Mets should be in business. The Mets had 11 players in the top 51 (1 A-, 4 B, 2 B-, 4 C+). The five who just missed being written up were (in order): Jefry Marte, Steve Matz, Robert Carson, Robbie Shields, and Cesar Puello. System Sleeper- Robbie Shields- He generated some first round buzz with his performance in Cape Cod League, but a poor senior season dropped him to the third. His pro debut was marred by injury, and a move to second may be in his future, but I think there is something in the bat. I look for him to bounce back with a solid 2010. 

4. Florida Marlins (3*)- Just as I was surprised by the quality of the Mets system, I was disappointed with the Marlins' system. I may not be quite as high on Stanton as some others, but I like him and Morrison a great deal. Dominguez looks like a regular at third, and James is a high-ceiling high school arm, but after those four the system falls off a pretty sharply. There are some upside guys like Smolinski, Skipworth, Jhan Marinez, Jose Ceda, Marcell Ozuna, Edgar Olmos, and Isaac Galloway, but there are some big question marks with each one. Sprinkled in with those guys there are some lower upside guys like Gaby Sanchez, but no one that jumps out at you. The Marlins had a division low 7 players in the top 51: (1 A-, 1 B+, 1 B, 1 B-, 3 C+). The five who just missed being written up were (in order): Kyle Skipworth, Jhan Marinez, Gaby Sanchez, Jose Ceda, and Bryan Berglund. System Sleeper- Bryan Berglund- Swedish citizen, has a projectable frame and a potential out-pitch in his slider.

5. Philladelphia Phillies (2*)- This system is pretty clearly below average right now. Brown gives them a nice prospect at the top of the system, and there is a lot of high-upside depth in the low levels, but there top 10 is pretty weak as a whole. There is enough talent where this time next year the Phillies could be a top 10 system, but right now there is just too much risk. The Phillies obviously love tools, and a quick look up and down there system shows an impressive group of athletes. I love Jiwan James, and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him as a top 100 guy next year. The Phillies totaled 12 players in the top 51: (1 B+, 1 B, 7 B-, 3 C+). The five who just missed being written up were (in order): Freddy Galvis, Kyrell Hudson, Yohan Flande, Anthony Hewitt (yes, I'm still not giving up on him), and Heitor Correa. System Sleeper- Anthony Hewitt- The results have obviously not been there, but there were signs of improvement in 2009. There is obviously a high bust potential, but if the light ever goes on, watch out. He's not really a sleeper in the sense that he is an unknown quantity, but I feel people are too down on him after just one full year as a pro. 

 

 

 

Poll

Stephen Strasburg or Jason Heyward?

30%

Strasburg

45 votes

69%

Heyward

101 votes

146 votes | Poll has closed

I've finished my AL East Top 51 (link), AL Central Top 51 (link), AL West Top 51 (link), AL Top 150. lists. I plan to do the same for the NL, and then compile that into a NL 150 list, and possibly an overall 300. My rough guidelines for the system grades are as follows: I'm shooting for 4 5-star systems, 6 4-star, 10 3-star, 6 2-star, and 4 1-star systems (although these are not rigid parameters). For player grading I basically use John's system (but I may be a bit more generous). An A grade is a top 4-8 guy, A- Top 20-25, B+ Top 65, B Top 135, B- Top 240. All Ages are of Opening Day. Some changes from the AL 150 list- Tigers have been downgraded to a 2 star system. 

The NL West is an intriguing division, prospect-wise. The division doesn't have elite talent of the AL East or AL West, but here are some intriguing guys. There is a tremendous amount of uncertainty because so many of the prospects are in the low minors. All those unknowns made going through this division challenging, but it was fun to learn about many prospects I didn't know much about previously.

 

1. Buster Posey, 23.0, C (SFG)- Really not much not to like. He's a patient hitter who should hit for average and could hit 20 homeruns annually. He needs to polish his receiving skills, but he has great defensive tools and he threw out 46 percent of would be base stealers last year. I'm not worried about his poor AFL showing, I think it was pretty clear he was worn out. The Bengie Molina signing likely means that Posey will at least start 2010 in AAA, but he should take over the starting job at some point during the year. Grade A

2. Christian Friedrich, 22.9, LHS (COL)- Polished left-hander with the ceiling of a number two. His plus fastball and plus curve give him a great one-two punch. Reports I've read are confident his change will progress enough to allow him to be an effective starter. I'm not overly concerned about the elbow inflammation in the middle of the season. Grade B+

3. Tyler Matzek, 19.6, LHS (COL)- More polished than most high school arms, Matzek could become a true font-of-the-rotation starter. He is an underrated athlete who was set to play both ways at Oregon. Needs to improve his change, he almost reminds me of a high school version of Friedrich (expect his plus breaking ball is a slider). He should begin his pro career in the Sally League in 2010, and it wouldn't surprise me to see Matzek be the first of the prep pitchers to reach the big leagues. Grade B+

4. Dee Gordon, 21.11, SS (LAD)- The son of big league reliever Tom Gordon, Dee is one of the best athletes in the minors. He was clocked at 6.3 seconds in the 60 yard dash, and you'll here Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins (with less power) comparisons thrown out. He is very new to the game, only picking up baseball his senior year of high school, so it is very possible he is just scratching the surface of his potential. I think he is an underrated prospect by most in this community. I don't think he'll ever surpass 12 homeruns in a season, but his defensive value, speed, and average should make him an all-star. Grade B+

5. Jarrod Parker, 21.4, RHS (ARZ)- Parker would have come in second on this list had it not been for the Tommy John surgery he underwent at the end of 2009. He has top-of-the-rotation stuff- a plus fastball, 70 slider, and a solid-average curve and change. The track record of pitchers recovering from Tommy John is so strong that Parker should still be considered a very good prospect. Grade B+

6. Madison Bumgarner, 20.8, LHS (SFG)- I don't think anyone can predict with much confidence how Bumgarner's career will go. He continued to post  a sub-2 era in AA last year, pitching most of the season as a 19 year-old. And he did this despite the fact that his velocity dropped from the low 90s to the 88-90 range, in the second half. His slider and change are merely average offerings, and highly inconsistent, so the drop in velocity caused his K/9 to drop all the way to 5.8! Furthermore, he is a pretty extreme fly ball pitcher. Some inside the organization attribute the velo drop to the excessive amount of throwing Bumgarner was doing in between starts, and believe that it will return in 2010. That may be the case, but there are too many questions for me to project him as an ace. However, I think he will settle in as a 2/3 starter. Grade B+

7. Jaff Decker*, 20.1, LF (SD)- Any time a teenager puts up a 442 OBP in the Mid West League, you know you have a special bat on your hands. Decker's 2009 season was so special that he was the first teenager to lead the Mid West League in OPS since Prince Fielder did it in 2003. His detractors point to his lack of athleticism and bad body, and while these are concerns, I think they are overblown. He has stolen 19 bases as a pro, so it's not like he is some kind of base clogger. I think he could be a 20-25 homerun, middle of the order hitter, who consistently posts OBPs of 390. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Padres start Decker in AA. Grade B+

8. Chris Withrow, 21.0, RHS (LAD)- Despite throwing less than twenty innings in his first two professional seasons (signed late and then cut his finger in a snorkeling accident), scouts love Withrow's clean arm action and he is not considered a long-term injury risk. Because of all the time Withrow missed, he is behind the elite pitching prospects of the 2007 draft, developmentally. His command and control and poor, and his change up is a work in progress. Despite those concerns, Withrow has number one starter potential. He has one of the best fastballs in the minors, and his curve is a potential plus offering. He should get a full year at AA in 2010. Grade B+

9. Jhouyls Chacin, 22.3, RHS (COL)- The third Rockies' starter in the top 10, Chacin is the closest to the majors of the three but also has the lowest ceiling. He is a strike-thrower who pounds the zone with a low 90s sinking fastball, allowing to rack up a GO/AO ratio of 1.88 in AA. His change is a true plus pitch, while his curve is fringy. Chacin profiles as a solid third starter. He is probably only a couple months of AAA away from being ready. Grade B+

10. Donavan Tate, 19.6, CF (SD)- Maybe the best athlete in the 2009 draft, Tate is a potential 5-tool star. He looked set to play football at North Carolina, but the Padres were able to sign him for a club record $6.25 million dollar bonus. Tate is raw, so the Padres will need to develop him. The Mike Cameron comparison is almost a cliche at this point, but I think it is actually a fitting one in this case. Grade B+

11. Simon Castro, 22.0, RHS (SD)- Older than most Latin prospects pitching in the Mid West League, Castro put up an extremely impressive stat line in 2009. He has always had impressive stuff- including a plus slider and a fastball that reaches 95-96- but he improved his delivery in 2009, allowing him to throw more strikes. At 6'5" 211 there is still room for some growth. I might not be as bullish on Castro as many. His GO/AO ratio of 0.81 has me worried that he will be hurt by the homerun as he climbs the organizational ladder. He is probably advanced enough to move to AA in 2010. I think he is a 3rd starter long-term. Grade B+

12. Zack Wheeler, 19.10, RHS (SFG)- The 6th overall pick in 2009, Wheeler is already 6'3" and may still be growing. He has an impressive combination of stuff and projection. He needs to improve the consistency of his breaking ball and work on his change. The Giants were aggressive with Bumgarner and Alderson, sending them both to the Sally League in their first full seasons. There is no reason not to expect Wheeler to be sent there too. Grade B

13. Ethan Martin, 20.10, RHS (LAD)- Some teams liked Martin as a third baseman coming out of the draft, but the Dodgers fell in love with his power stuff. He has a mid 90s fastball, and a curve that many project as a future plus pitch. Martin struggles with his control, walking 5.49 per 9 last year. And his lack of an average change has some projecting him as a future bullpen arm. I think he is athletic enough to make the necessary adjustments to profile as a starter. Grade B

14. Wynn Pelzer, 23.9, RHS (SD)- Under-the-radar prospect who strikes me as a solid middle-of-the-rotation option. He gets a lot of ground balls with his heavy fastball, and has a plus slider. He needs to improve his change to avoid a move to the pen. Grade B

15. Aaron Miller, 22.7, LHS (LAD)- Miller was reluctant to pitch until his sophomore year of college, preferring to play right. However, it was quickly apparent that his future lay on the mound. He has two plus pitches in his fastball and slider. Like Martin, Miller's change is unrefined- leading many to project him as a reliever down the line. After seeing him in the AFL, Jason Grey projected him as a back-end starter- citing his two pitch mix and flat fastball. I think he's a bit better than that, probably a 3/4. Grade B

16. Hector Gomez, 22.1, SS (COL)- He has all the tools to become a star, but he needs to stay healthy. It wouldn't surprise me if Gomez wins some gold gloves in the future. He has excellent range, soft hands, and an absolute cannon. At the plate his plate discipline must improve, but he shows enough bat speed that 15 homeruns a year is not out of the question. Grade B

17. James Darnell, 23.3, 3B (SD)- Tough to put up better numbers than Darnell did in 2009, although it is important to note that he was old for the Mid West League and then played in the hitter-friendly California League. Scouts like his swing and bat speed, so there is no reason to think the bat won't play at higher levels. The question is whether Darnell will be able to stick at 3rd. He made 30 errors there in 117 games, despite having the tools to be passable. Darnell profiles as an offensive regular at third. Grade B

18. Thomas Neal, 22.8, LF (SFG)- Finally healthy in 2009, Neal put up big numbers. Scouts love the bat speed and plate coverage, projecting him to hit for both average and power. He is a below average runner, although his arm is plus in left, so the bat will have to carry him. There is no reason to think he can't be a regular in left. Grade B

19. Wilin Rosario, 21.1, C (COL)- Rosario may not have been ready for the California League, but he is still a very good prospect. He has solid defensive tools, and the bat speed and swing to be an all star. He needs to improve his pitch recognition skills and learn to employe a more patient approach, but he is young enough to do so. I look for him to have a big year in 2010. Grade B

20. Scott Elbert, 24.8, LHR (LAD)- He shows electric stuff when healthy, but staying healthy has been the problem. He may have the stuff to start, but I'm not convinced he could handle the work load. He is ready for the big leagues, and should eventually become a valuable late inning option. Grade B-

21. Bobby Borchering#, 19.5, 3B/1B (ARZ)- Borchering draws Chipper Jones comparisons as a switch-hitting third baseman. Scouts love his bat speed and he projects as a possible middle-of-the-order slugger. Most observers think Borchering will eventually have to move over to first, as his actions are pretty poor at third. Grade B-

22. Garret Gould, 18.9, RHS (LAD)- The starting quarterback and power forward in high school, Gould is a very good athlete. Many teams were scarred off by his strong commitment to Wichita Sate, but the Dodgers were able to sign him for $900,000. He has front-of-the-rotation potential, but he is a long way away. Grade B-

23. Everett Williams*, 19.6, CF (SD)- One of my favorites in the 2009 draft. I solid defender in center with power potential. His approach and pitch recognition skills need refinement, but he has the raw tools to be a very productive player. It wouldn't surprise me to see Williams beat Tate to the majors. Grade B-

24. Rex Brothers*, 22.4, LHR (COL)- The Rockies have to be thrilled that Brothers lasted until 34th pick. Indications are that they will use him out of the pen, and that seems to be the prudent decision. As a reliever Brothers' 94-96 mph heat and nasty slider could make him a Billy Wagner like closer. Grade B-

25. Brandon Allen*, 24.2, 1B (ARZ)- It's important not to get sucked in by the numbers Allen put up in 167 plate appearances in the PCL. While I think Allen is a big leaguer, he strikes me as a second division regular. And I think that Arizona's decision to sign Adam LaRoche speaks volumes about how far he is from being ready for the big leagues. Grade B-

26. Roger Kieschnick*, 23.2, RF (SFG)- Has the tools to become a major league right fielder, but there are some holes he needs to fill. He has big raw power, but his swing is long so there is some concern he will be exploited by better pitching. His approach needs improvement. He's got a chance, but if I were a betting man I would bet against him becoming a regular. Grade B-

27. Josh Lindblom, 22.10, RHR (LAD)- Lindblom started and relieved in 2009, but his future seems to be as a reliever. Scouts love his heavy low 90s fastball, but he doesn't get many groundballs. However, he throws strikes and, with his plus curve, generates strikeouts. He should break camp with the big club in 2010. He profiles as a 7th/8th inning guy. Grade B-

28. Rafeal Rodriguez, 17.9, RF (SFG)- I think too many people are sleeping on Rodriguez. He held his own making his American debut in 2009, showing good plate discipline and a solid hit tool. He is a physical freak with the ceiling to match anyone on this list. He will likely advance to the Northwest League as an 18 year-old. Could become a true impact player, but he is far away. Grade B-

29. Dan Runzler, 25.0, LHR (SFG)- He clicked with his Sally League pitching coach, Steve Kline, and has taken off since. He has power stuff in a mid-90s heater and a plus breaking ball. Only thing holding him back from the back-end of a big league bullpen is his struggles with command. Grade B-

30. Logan Forsythe, 23.3, 3B/C? (SD)- Only hit 11 homeruns in 2009, but he has such a good approach at the plate that he may be able to profile as a regular at third as an OBP and defense guy. With Darnell on his heels, there is some talk of trying him behind the plate. His game seems well suited to Petco park. Grade B-

31. Aaron Poreda, 23.6, LHR (SD)- The main return in the Jake Peavy deal, Poreda was a disaster in San Diego. His mechanics got out of whack, and he walked an astounding 10.2 batters per nine in 32.2 AAA innings for the Padres. Despite his struggles, the talent is there. He has a big fastball and his slider will flash plus. I think the ship has sailed as him as a starter, but I see no reason not to think he will be a valuable reliever. Grade B-

32. Edinson Rincon, 19.8, LF (SD)- The bat looks great- power potential, a patient approach, and good results as a teenager in the North West League. However, he has as much of a chance as playing third as Jesus Montero does of catching. It's tough not to like the bat, but defensive questions preclude a higher grade. Grade B-

33. Adys Portillo, 18.3, RHS (SD)- Portillo's $2 million dollar bonus set a record for a Venezuelan pitcher. That bonus set expectations very high for Portillo's debut, and the results simply were not there. Despite his struggles, I still remain optimistic about his future. He will be only 18 the entire 2010 season, and the stuff that had everyone so excited heading into 2009 is still there. Grade B-

34. Andrew Lambo*, 21.8, 1B/LF (LA)- Lambo's value is all in his bat, so he is going to have to hit to make it to the big leagues. While his AA numbers were not impressive, there are signs for optimism. He is still very young, and will play almost the entire 2010 season at 21. Furthermore, he hit 39 doubles. If he can begin to turn a few of those into homeruns he may be able to stick in the big leagues. He reminds me a bit of current Dodgers first baseman James Loney. Grade B-

35. Kenley Jansen, 22.6, RHR (LA)- A former catcher, Jansen converted to the mound in 2009 and the early returns have the Dodgers very excited. He hit 97 in the AFL, and scouts love how easily the ball comes out of his hands (especially considering how new he is to the mound). His slider shows great life and is a potential out-pitch at the big league level. Grade B-

36. Ivan DeJesus Jr., 22.11, SS/2B (LA)- Coming off a huge 2008 season, DeJesus looked poised to make his big league debut at some point during the 2009 season. However, those chances went out the window in spring training when he broke his leg in a play at the plate. DeJesus doesn't wow scouts with his tools, but he knows how to play the game and makes the most out of his natural ability. He is a patient hitter, who, despite his lack of power, should provide enough with the bat to be a major league contributor. Prior to the leg injury there were concerns about his range at short, so there is a fair chance he will have to move to second. Grade B-

37. Chris Owings, 18.8, SS (ARZ)- Similar to DeJesus, in that neither player is especially toolsy but both get the most out of what they have. Owings isn't much of a power threat, so he will need to adopt a more patient approach to provide offensive value. His hit tool is solid, and he performed very well in his debut. He projects as an average defender at short, although his arm is fringy. He is a year younger than most 2009 high school draftees. Grade B-

38. AJ Pollock, 22.4, CF (ARZ)- A lot of people like him more than this, but I'm a bit concerned by the lack of tools. He isn't a true plus runner, but he is a solid defender in center. Offensively he projects as a 10-15 homerun guy, who hits for a solid average. He will need to employe a more patient approach for his bat to play in center as a regular. Grade B-

39. Trayvon Robinson#, 22.7, CF (LA)- Robinson hadn't shown much with the bat coming into 2009, but he had a huge year repeating the California League. Then he impressed Arizona Fall League observers with his athleticism and bat speed. On pure potential Robinson would rate several spots higher. However, I'm not much of a believer. He needs to improve his pitch recognition skills, and his offensive breakout came while repeating a hitter-friendly league. Grade B-

40. Allen Webster, 20.2, RHS (LA)- Early indications are that the Dodgers got a steal when they signed Webster for $20,000 as an 18th round pick in 2008. He needs to add bulk to his 6-foot-2 165 pound frame, but already has hit 94 and works in the low 90s. His breaking ball is a potential plus offering, and his change shows signs of being average. In Baseball America's Dodgers chat, John Perrott said he couldn't see a reason why Webster couldn't develop into a number 2 starter. I think that is a bit bullish, but Webster is a very intriguing prospect. Grade B-

41. Keyvius Sampson, 19.3, RHS (SD)- Sampson had one of the best arms available in the 2009 draft, but many teams were scarred away by reported bonus demands and some off the field issues (link). The Padres were enticed by his mid 90s heat, sharp breaking ball, and athleticism to take a shot on him in the 4th round and were able to sign him for $600,000. His ceiling is immense, but he is far away. Grade B-

42. Rymer Liriano, 18.10, RF (SD)- Liriano has the potential to become a true impact player. He has a cannon for an arm. While he can play center in a pinch, he is better suited for right. At the plate, he has tremendous raw power and bat speed. His potential prompted his rookie league manager to proclaim that "[Liriano] has the biggest upside that I've seen in a Latin kid in my years of managing". Despite the potential, there are concerns about Liriano's discipline and ability to hit breaking balls. Grade C+

43. Tommy Joseph, 18.9, C/1B (SFG)- One of the best prep bats available in 2009, Joseph evokes Paul Konerko comparisons for his sturdy frame and power potential. He has great bat speed and a balanced swing. Joseph is a below average athlete, and very few believe that he will be able to stay behind the plate, so the pressure is all on his bat. Grade C+

44. Mike Belfiore, 21.6, LHS (ARZ)- Belfiore received national attention when (as Boston College's closer) he threw 9 2/3 innings in relief in BC's marathon game against Texas. The Diamond backs are attempting to use him as a starter, and I think he has the stuff to do it. He gets ground balls with his low 90s fastball, and he also has a plus slider. He will need to improve his change as a starer, but I think there is enough for him to become a 4th starter. Grade C+

45. Matt Davidson, 19.0, 3B/1B (ARZ)- A lot of people seemed to have inexplicably soured on Davidson (10th on BA's list, 11th on John's, and 8th on KG's). Sure, he is likely a first baseman long term. But he still has the upside of a middle-of-the-order run producer, and he held his own in the Northwest League straight out of high school. Grade C+

46. Drew Cumberland*, 21.3, SS/2B (SD)- A star running back and DB in high school, Cumberland is an exceptional athlete. He receives 70 speed grades, and rave reviews for his patient approach. While he isn't a homerun threat, he stings the balls in the gaps and has drawn Brian Roberts comparisons. He has the actions and range to play short, but his arm is light so a move to second base may be in his future. Cumberland has struggled to stay healthy, but if he can in 2010 I look for him to have a big year. Grade C+

47. Michael McKenry, 25.1, C (COL)- At 25, McKenry is approaching the stage where he is what he is. However, that is not without value. McKenry is a very solid defensive catcher, who threw out 46 percent of would be base stealers in 2008. At the plate he is a patient hitter with some pop. Some scouts don't like his body and grade him as a back-up, but there is value in that. He should make his major league debut at some point in 2010. Grade C+

48. Nolan Arenado, 19.0, 3B (COL)- The Rockies love Arenado's makeup and work ethic. That is especially important because he needs to improve his defense to remain at third. He doesn't have elite power potential, but he has a quality hit tool- striking out in less than 9 percent of his Pioneer League at-bats and hitting 300. I like Arenado, but he doesn't have the ceiling of the other high school second rounders in 2009. Grade C+

49. Brett Wallach, 21.4, RHS (LA)- The son of a former big leaguer, it looks that Brett will be following in his fathers footsteps. He is just filling out his 6-foot-3 frame, and the Dodgers believe he will add velocity to his 88-89 mph fastball. His off-speed stuff is advanced, and his change should be a plus pitch in the future. I like Wallach as a sleeper, and think there is a good chance he becomes a solid mid-rotation starter. Grade C+

50. Cory Luebke, 25.1, LHS (SD)- Baseball America has him 6th on their Padres list, but I just don't see it. His repertoire is average, he's not much of a ground ball guy, and having success in the Cal and Texas leagues as a 24 year-old doesn't inspire a lot of confidence in me. His stuff should play in the big leagues, but I don't see him being much more than a back-end starter. Grade C+

51. Ehidre Adrianza#, 20.7, SS (SFG)- A potential gold glove winner, Adrianza has the range, arm, and actions that scouts covet in short stops. The bat is a work in progress at this point, and it is unlikely he will ever offer much offensively, but he did show a willingness to walk in 2009. Grade C+

52. Jonathan Galvez, 19.3, 2B (SD)- Signed for $750,000 in 2007, Galvez put together a very strong US debut in 2009. He has a quick bat giving him impressive power potential for a middle infielder, and he employes an advanced approach at the plate. However, scouts worry about his defense. His arm will likely relegate him to second, and some scouts questioned his effort in the field. If he can clean up his defense he could shoot up this list in 2010. Grade C+

53. Esmil Rogers, 24.8, RHP (COL)- Signed as a shortstop, Rogers has made a seamless transition to the mound. Surprisingly, scouts love his fluid arm motion and the easy 93-95 velocity that he generates. His curve is sharp, but his change is unrefined. It's tough to know what to make of Rogers' 2009. He was great in AA, but his control and command deserted him when he got to AAA. If he can improve his command and change he could be a valuable starer, but I'm not optimistic. I think he profiles better as a reliever. Grade C+

54. Tim Wheeler, 22.2, RF (COL)- I'm not a big believer in Wheeler. His tools are pretty average across the board, but he is going to need to hit to hold down right field in pro ball. His big league debut was less than inspiring, but I look for him to have a better season in 2010. Grade C+

55. Nate Eovaldi, 20.2, RHS (LA)- Eovaldi had Tommy John surgery at the end of his junior year of high school, but recovered in time to pitch his senior season. He slipped to the 11th round due to signability questions, but the Dodgers were able to sign him for $250,000. He is a classic Texas power pitcher, who runs his fastball up to 93-96. He has made solid strides with his curve in pro ball, but his change is still crude. The Dodgers have been very careful with Eovaldi, and there are still some durability questions. However, the arm is worth taking a gamble on. Grade C+

 

Honorable Mentions (in no particular order):

Francisco Peguero, 21.10, CF (SFG)- Intriguing tools, but no plate discipline. Not sure how that approach will play at higher levels. Numbers were inflated by a 404 BABIP in 2009.

Charlie Blackmon*, 23.9, CF (COL)- Old for his league, but that is because he was a pitcher up until 2007. He has very impressive tools, with power being the only non-plus. The ceiling of an every day center fielder.

Casey Weathers, 24.10, RHR (COL)- Should be healthy in 2010 after undergoing Tommy John in 2009. When he is on he has some of the nastiest stuff in the game. Will need to improve his command and prove his health. Could be a closer.

Eric Young Jr., 24.10, 2B/CF (COL)- Spitting image of his father. I'm not convinced his bat/speed will be able to make up for his defensive short comings, but he should make a valuable utility guy.

Marc Krauss*, 22.6, LF (ARZ)- Should hit for average and put up good OBP numbers, but scouts question whether he will hit for power with wood. May eventually have to move to first. Reminds me of Sean Casey.

Lance Zawadzki#, 24.10, SS (SD)- Starting to get some prospect hype after a very strong 2009. I'm not sure he is a regular, but should be a valuable utility player. 

 

System Rankings:

1. San Diego Padres- There is the perception that the Padres always go for low-ceiling college guys; however, a look through the system reveals a lot of high upside talents. They have drafted well in recent years, and are one of the most underrated teams in terms of procuring Latin American talent. The majority of the systems talent is in the low minors, so there is more risk here than there is with most systems, but the amount of depth gives them some room for error. The Padres had 15 players in the top 55 (3 B+, 2 B, 6 B-, and 4 C+). The five Padres who just missed being ranked (in order) were: Dexter Carter, Craig Italiano, Jerry Sullivan, Blake Tekotte, and Cedric Hunter. I like this system more than most, and I think it is above average. 4 Star System

2. Colorado Rockies- The Rockies certainly have an intriguing system. Friedrick, Matzek, and Chacin give them three very good pitching prospects, and Gomez and Rosario are premium position guys with big ceilings. I'm not as big on Rogers, Wheeler, and Young Jr. However, there is a decent depth to go with a good top end group. The Rockies had 10 players in the top 55 (3 B+, 2 B, 1 B-, and 4 C+). The five players who just missed being ranked (in order) were: Juan Nicasio, Chris Nelson, Parker Frazier, Chris Balcom-Miller, and Sam Deduno. I like the Rockies' top 5 better than the Padres', but they simply do not have the depth. I thought about going 4 stars, but I think they fit in better with the 3 star group. 3 Star System

3. Los Angeles Dodgers- The Dodgers have an underrated system. While they lack an elite prospect, Gordon and Withrow give them two top 65 guys. There is a lot of depth in this system, and most of it is comprised of high upside guys. Between Withrow, Martin, Gould, Webster, Wallach, and Eovaldi they should have a good stream of major league starters matriculating up the system. Furthermore, Elbert, Lindblom, and Jansen give them some great late-inning options. The Dodgers had 14 players in the top 55: (2 B+, 2B, 8 B-, and 2 C+).  The five players who just missed being ranked (in order) were: Jonathan Garcia, Pedro Baez, Xavier Paul, John Ely, and Lucas May. While the Dodgers have go about 16 deep in terms of depth, once you get out of the top 16, things begin to go down quickly. There is a lot of risk in this system. But I think that five years down the road we will see that most underrated this system (KLaw had them 19 and BA has them 24). 3 Star System

4. San Francisco Giants- Posey and Bumgarner give this system the best 1-2 punch in the division, but there isn't much depth in the 10-20 range. Wheeler, Rodriguez, and Joseph are all potential impact players, but all three are a long way away. I think this system is often overrated (BA has them 4th!?). The Giants had 9 players in the top 55 (1 A, 1 B+, 2 B, 3 B-, and 2 C+). The five players who just missed being ranked (in order) were: Nick Noonan, Jason Stoffel, Brandon Crawford, Clayton Tanner, and Aaron King. There is definitely some talent in this system, but it is in the bottom half of baseball. Posey keeps this system from 2 star status, but just barely. 3 Star System

5. Arizona Diamondbacks- One of the tougher systems to grade, because so many of the players are 2009 draftees. An absurd seven of my top 10 Diamond backs were drafted in 2009. That means that this system could look much better in 2010, but it also means most of the system's talent is far away and there is a lot of risk. I didn't downgrade Parker as much as many others probably would, because I don't view Tommy John as a major impediment to his long-term value. The Diamondbacks had 7 players in the Top 55 (1B+, 4 B-, and 2 C+). The five players who just missed being ranked (in order) were: Ryan Wheeler, Wade Miley, Cole Gillespie, David Nick, and Collin Cowgill. I like Nick a lot as a sleeper, but defensive questions keep him from being ranked higher. Outsider of Parker there isn't anyone particularly close to the top 100, and the depth outside of the top 12 is poor. This system is clearly one of the worst in the game. 1 Star System.

Poll

The best system in the NL West belongs to the:

45%

San Diego Padres

45 votes

32%

Colorado Rockies

32 votes

23%

Los Angeles Dodgers

23 votes

100 votes | Poll has closed

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I've finished my AL East Top 51 (link), AL Central Top 51 (link), and AL West Top 51 (link), and the culmination of those three lists is my AL Top 150. Making this list, and encountering the challenges it presents has given me a newfound respect for everyone who tries to put these things together. A few grades have been changed, most notably Chris Carter down from a A- to a B+ (hat tip Alskor). He's still a very good prospect, but his struggles with the breaking ball have instilled a little doubt in me. Also Alex Colome is up to a B+ (from a B), I think I may have not really understood what kind of an electric arm he has until recently. All ages are of opening day. As always, I appreciate any feedback. 

1. Neftali Feliz, 21.11, RHS (TEX)- Absolute stud, confident he can start. Grade A

2. Brian Matusz, 23.2, LHS (BAL)- May not ever be a true number 1, but should be a 2 for a long time. Grade A

3. Desmond Jennings, 23.5, CF (TB)- Rare 5 tool/ 7 skill player that should impact the game in a lot of ways. Could challenge Matusz for AL ROY in 2010. Grade A

4. Carlos Santana#, 24.0, C (CLE)-  Combines patience, contact ability, average, and power into one special package. To top it off he plays a premium position, and he plays it well. Grade A

5. Jesus Montero, 20.4, C/DH (NYY)- May be the best hitter in the minors right now, but where is he going to play? Grade A-

6. Martin Perez, 19.0, LHS (TEX)- One of the best pitching prospects in the game. With Feliz, Perez, and Holland in one rotation the Rangers could be scary in a few years. Grade A-

7. Casey Kelly, 20.6, RHS (BOS)-  I'm not sure he has the pure stuff of a number one, but he could definitely be a solid number 2. Great athlete, people are too worked up about Ks. Grade A-

8. Ryan Westmoreland, 20.0, CF (BOS)-  Like Jennings, Westmoreland is a 5 tool/7 skill player. Unfortunately, like Jennings, he has battled injuries throughout his pro career. If he stays healthy he could be a Grady Sizemore like impact player. Grade A-

9. Dustin Ackley*, 2B/CF (SEA)- He has the potential to win a few batting titles to go along with 15-25 homerun power and some stolen bases. Reminds me of Johnny Damon. Grade A-

10. Jeremy Hellickson, 23.0, RHS (TB)- I love the K/BB ratio. My one concern is that he will be hurt by the longball in the majors. I see him as a 2/3 starter.  Grade A-

11. Justin Smoak#, 23.4, 1B (TEX)- I'm not quite as high on Smoak as most. I think he profiles as a solid regular (6) rather than a perennial all-star. I love his glove, his patience, and his power potential, but oblique injury or not I'm concerned about the lack of power. Grade A-

12. Kyle Drabek, 22.4, RHS (TOR)- I think he may have gotten a little overrated in all the trade talks over the last year, but he is still an extremely good prospect. Grade A-

13. Aaron Hicks#, 20.6, CF (MIN)- Tremendous athlete, but he is more polished than most give him credit for. He has walked in almost 14 percent of his plate appearances and he struck out in just 22 percent of his at-bats as a teenager in the Mid West League. Confident power will come Grade A-

 14. Chris Carter, 23.4, 1B (OAK)-  One of the best hitters in the minors. Concerned about ability to hit breaking ball, but still a great prospect. Grade B+

15. Matt Moore, 20.9, LHS (TB)- Unbelievable K/9 rates the last two years, and he gets some ground balls too. If he can improve his command he could become a number 1 starter. Grade B+

16. Casey Crosby 21.7, LHS (DET)- Competing with Perez and Moore for best stuff for a left-hander in the minors. I'm a big fan. All he needs to do is prove he's healthy. Grade B+

17. Mike Montgomery, 20.10, LHS (KC)- I feel like there are two camps forming around Montgomery. One views him as a potential ace and is overrating him, and in response a second group has formed that is too low on him. While I don't think he is a future ace, he has a great blend of polish and projection. Grade B+

18. Wade Davis, 24.7, RHS (TB)- Davis has good stuff, and no doubt projects as a major league starter, but I think he has been overrated due to his impressive major league debut. But a close look at his AAA peripherals doesn't suggest a #2 starter- only a 2.34 K/BB ratio and .74 GO/AO ratio for a guy repeating the league. I think he is a 3rd starter long-term, but I would caution those who expect him to replicate his exceptional debut in 2010. Grade B+

19. Jake Arrieta, 24.1, RHS (BAL)- I might be higher on Arrieta than most, but I believe in the stuff. He reminds me a lot of Kevin Millwood- big fastball, plus slider, a serviceable change, and durable starters frame- and I think his career could look very similar to Millwood's. Grade B+

20. Josh Bell, 23.5, 3B (BAL)- Improved his defense and continued to hit and walk. Grade B+

21. Jacob Turner, 18.10, RHS (DET)- Potential top of the rotation arm. Grade B+

22. Zach Britton, 22.4, LHS (BAL)- He's underrated nationally. Gets ground ball after ground ball, and improved his strikout numbers in 2009. Needs to improve FB command, 3rd starter with higher ceiling. Grade B+

23. Lonnie Chisenhall*, 21.6, 3B (CLE)- Second best third base prospect in the AL. Grade B+

24. Michael Taylor, 24.3, RF (OAK)- Put me in the camp that thinks the A's came out on top in the Taylor for Wallace deal. I think Taylor will be a solid 5-6 in right for a long time. Grade B+

25. Nick Hagadone, 24.3, LHP (CLE)- Starter's frame, good delivery, and gets ground balls. Needs to prove he's healthy and develop his change. I think he will be a solid 2/3 starter. Grade B+

26. Wilson Ramos, 22.8, C (MIN)- Lack of plate discipline limits his ceiling, but he is still pretty clearly the second best catching prospect in the American League (Montero is not a C). Reminds me a bit of Yadier Molina, not quite the defender, but he should hit for more power. Grade B+

27. Alex Colome, 21.3, RHS (TB)- World of potential, but far away. Grade B+

28. Tim Beckham, 20.2, SS (TB)- I'm still a believer that he will hit and play short. Grade B+

29. Danny Duffy, 21.3, LHS (KC)- Safe bet to become a solid #3. Better secondary stuff than he is given credit for. Grade B+

30. Trevor Reckling, 20.10, LHS (LAA)- A long-time favorite of mine. Good three pitch repertoire, needs to polish command, but still just 20! Grade B+

31. Dan Hudson, 23.1, RHS (CWS)- Posted an absurd 4.86 K/BB ratio in 2009. Some scouts worry about his ceiling, but I find it hard to believe he will be less than a solid 3rd starter. Grade B+

32. Aaron Crow, 23.5, RHS (KC)- Needs to make progress with his change to become a 2/3 starter. If he can't he could become a closer. He should move through the system quickly, even as a starter. Grade B+

33. Eric Hosmer*, 20.5, 1B (KC)- Disappointing year for Hosmer whichever way you slice it, but I love his swing, and I am confident he will bounce back with a strong 2010 campaign. Grade B

34. Grant Green, 22.6, SS (OAK)- To be completely honest, I'm not sure what to make of Green. Depending upon who you read, Green is either likely to have to move off of short or a future gold glove candidate. Some think he won't hit for power with wood, others like his power. Like in a lot of things, I think the answer lies somewhere in between. I think Green could be the right-handed version of Reid Brignac, only probably more offensive and less defensive value. Grade B

35. Zach Stewart, 23.6, RHP (TOR)- I think he could start (but he would most likely a 4). Out of the pen he could be a closer/set-up guy. Depends upon what you want. Grade B

36. Brett Wallace, 23.7, 1B (TOR)- I'm not a big fan. While his bat is plus at third it seems just average at first. He has risen through the minors quickly, but he hasn't shown the exceptional plate discipline many say he has. While he is still young, with his "bad" body I can't see him growing into more power. A safe pick to be a major leaguer, but not an impact guy for me. Grade B

37. Matt Hobgood, 19.8, RHS (BAL)- He certainly didn't distinguish himself in his pro debut, but I'm a big fan. He's athletic, and he has a bulldog mindset that is perfect for the AL East. I see him as a 2/3 when all is said and done. Grade B

38. Josh Reddick, 23.1, RF (BOS)- He wasn't ready for the big leagues last year, but with his tool set it shouldn't be long before he is. He may not ever post big OBP numbers, but he is a plus defender in right with the power for the bat to profile there. Grade B

39. Kyle Gibson, RHS (MIN)- If he is healthy, Gibson could fly through the minor leagues. He doesn't have a ceiling much (if any) higher than a 3rd starter, but he is a pretty safe bet to reach that. Grade B

40. Tanner Scheppers, 23.3, RHP (TEX)- No denying his stuff, but most teams seem to think that it is just a matter of time before he gets hurt. Grade B

41. Michael Ynoa, 18.6, RHS (OAK)- Long ways away, but I can't pass up his upside here. Grade B

42. Reid Brignac, 24.3, SS (TB)- Because he has been on prospect radars for so long I think people forget how young he still is. Should be a solid short stop for a lot of years. Grade B

43. Austin Jackson, 23.2, CF (DET)- Not a future star, but he should have a long career as a major league center fielder starting in 2010. Grade B

44. Brandon Snyder, 23.5, 1B (BAL)- I like the swing and I think he will hit enough to profile at first i the big leagues. AAA slump is nothing to get too carried away with. Grade B

45. Michael Main, 21.4, RHS (TEX)- Suffered some injuries but they have not been arm related. When he is on the field he features a lively fastball and two potential plus breaking balls. He is healthy heading into 2009, and I look for him to put up big numbers in the California league. Grade B

46. Alex Liddi, 21.8, 3B (SEA)- No I don't think Liddi is as good as his ridiculous 2009 Cal-league-aided numbers would indicate, but I think he will be a major league regular at third. Scouts love his defense, and he has solid offensive tools. He reminds me of Mike Lowell. Grade B

47. Mike Moustakas*, 21.7, 3B (KC)- Josh Bell type ceiling for me. Below average defense at the hot corner, above average bat. Offensive numbers have been depressed by hitting environments. Grade B

48. Carlos Carasco, 23.1, RHS (CLE)- Easy to forget how young he still is. Has pitched under his stuff, but I think he will figure it out. He strikes me as a solid 3/4 starter (with the potential to become more). Grade B

49. Anthony Rizzo, 20.8, 1B (BOS)- In my view one of the most underrated prospects in the game. I love the plate discipline, but like Snyder the question with Rizzo is whether he will develop homerun power. Considering his youth, his fight with cancer, and the gap power he has shown, I think he will have plenty of power down the road. Grade B

50. Tyler Flowers, 24.2, C (CWS)- Improved enough to stay behind the plate. Will post OBP and HR numbers, but still likely to be below average defensively. Grade B

51. Wil Myers*, 19.2, C/3B/RF (KC)- Important not to read too much into 80 plate appearances in the Pioneer League, but it's tough not to get carried away when envisioning what Myers could become. Grade B

52. Tim Melville, 20.6, RHS (KC)- Very solid pitching prospect. There is projection remaining in the frame, and scouts like the delivery. Needs to improve command and changeup to take the next step. Grade B

53. Jemile Weeks#, 23.2, 2B (OAK)- I like Jemile's tools a lot. He should be at least average defensively, he walks, has solid speed, and surprising power. He needs to iron out his right-handed swing, and to stay healthy, but I like him. Grade B

54. Travis D'Arnaud, 21.2, C (TOR)- Under the raw numbers there were signs for optimism.He has good defensive tools, and his overall package suggests that he should be a solid big league catcher. Grade B

55. Brandon Erbe, 22.4, RHP (BAL)- Scouts love his pure stuff, but there are concerns that he may profile better in the bullpen. I'm also concerned about his flyball tendancy, but I believe in the stuff. Grade B

56. Ben Revere*, 21.11, CF (MIN)- Great defensive potential, and could develop some pop. Walked more than he struck out in 2009. He should have a long career as a leadoff hitter. Grade B

57. Jason Knapp, 19.7, RHP (CLE)- Love the stuff, but there are a lot of questions- health? delivery? secondary stuff? Seems a likely candidate to end up in the pen. Grade B

58. Jared Mitchell*, 21.5, CF (CWS)- Great athlete but very raw. Grade B

59. Miguel Sano, 17, 3B/RF (MIN)- High bust potential, but his ceiling is just about as high as anyone's on this list. Grade B

60. Scott Sizemore, 25.3, 2B (DET)- Sizemore should be a solid regular starting in 2010 (provided he is fully healthy). His range is below average, but he walks, hits for average, and could hit 15-20 homeruns. Grade B

61. Carlos Triunfel, 20.1, SS/2B/3B (SEA)- When he has been on the field he has hit, but he has struggled to stay on the field. Probably a third baseman, will need to show more power, think he will. Grade B

62. Hank Conger#, 22.2, C (LAA)- Likely always a below average defender, but I think he will become a similar player to Flowers- enough OBP and HRs to make defense acceptable. Grade B

63. Mike Trout, 18.8, CF (LAA)- Important not to get too worked up over 187 plate appearances in rookie ball. I think Trout will be a solid regular in center, although I think I question the bat more than most. I see him as a 280/340/420 type hitter with solid defense. Grade B

64. Alex Avila*, 23.2, C (DET)- Avila should be a solid catcher, but I'm not reading much into his major league trial. Making evaluations bases on small sample sizes in September is a recipe for disaster. Avila has made strides defensively, but he is still a bit below average. His bat should be average to a tick above. It will be interesting to see if the Tigers chose to move Laird at some point. Grade B

65. Alex White, 21.7, RHP (CLE)- I think he is a reliever long-term, but a good one. Grade B

66. Junichi Tazawa, 23.10, RHP (BOS)- Tazawa wasn't ready for the big leagues in 2009, but he should be a solid 4th starter long-term. Fact that he is major league ready keeps him this high. Grade B

67. Fabio Martinez, 20.5, RHS (LAA)- Under the radar to this point. Led the Arizona league in Ks. Could be a front of the rotation arm if he improves his command. Grade B

68. Austin Romine, 21.4, C (NYY)- No standout tool or skill, but looks like a solid catcher. Impressive that he has risen to AA at 21. Grade B

69. Jose Iglesias, 20.3, SS (BOS)- Glove is major league ready, but bat? He's not a speed or power guy, so his offensive value will be almost completely tied to his average. Because he plays a premium position, even if he only hits in the 260 range he should still have serious big league value. He reminds me of Jack Wilson. Grade B

70. Noel Arguelles, 19, LHS (KC)- Tough guy to grade. KLAW had his as a top 5 pick in this year's draft, but the consensus has him as a late-first/sandwich talent. Grade B-

71. Derrick Gibson, 20.4, SS/2B (BOS)- One of my favorite prospects in the game. What's not to like when a middle infielder shows great discipline, athleticism, base-running savvy, and power potential? Grade B-

72. Lars Anderson, 22.6, 1B (BOS)- Walks were still there, and he cut his strikeouts. Willing to cut him some slack due to injuries. Grade B- 

73. Robbie Ross, 20.9, LHS (TEX)- Gets strikeouts, doesn't walk many guys, and posted an impressive 3.21 GO/AO ratio last year. Durability is a concern, if he stays healthy could really shoot up. Grade B-

74. Slade Heathcott, 19.6, CF/RF (NYY)-  A potential 5 tool difference maker, it's tough to say what the Yankees have until we have some pro data. Injury/makeup concerns to keep in mind. Grade B-

75. Wilmer Font, 19.10, RHP (TEX)- Electric fastball, but it is hard to judge his future prospects because the Rangers have been so careful with his development. Weight and injuries in the past. Grade B-

76. Daniel Schlereth, 23.11, LHR (DET)- I originally had Schlereth as a B, but command and durability concerns pushed him to a B-. He has the potential to be a dominant late-inning reliever. Grade B-

77. Chad Jenkins, 22.3, RHS (TOR)- Blanton comparisons seems to fit. Could be a 3rd starter, more development remaining than the typical college 1st rounder, due to raw secondary stuff. Grade B-

78. Adrian Salcedo, 18.11, RHS (MIN)- Posted an absurd 58-3 K/BB ratio in GCL! He has a loose arm and projectable frame. He may not have ace potential, but he is a very interesting name to watch. Grade B-

79. Hector Rondon, 22.1, RHS (CLE)- I feel like I might be the low man on Rondon. The numbers are great, but I'm concerned that he relies too heavily on his fastball. His secondary stuff is fringy, and he profiles as a 4th starter at the big league level, for me. Grade B-

80. Jake McGee, 23.8, LHP (TB)- Worked his way back from TJ nicely in 2009. I'm not sure how the Rays see him, but his power stuff and struggles with control scream bullpen arm to me. Grade B-

81. Danny Valencia, 25.6, 3B (MIN)- He is a good Spring Training away form seizing the big league third base job, and I think he'll do it. Projects to have a nice career as a second-division regular at third. Grade B-

82. David Renfroe, SS/3B (BOS)- A favorite of mine in the 2009 draft. He's a great athlete with the potential to be an impact player in the field and and at the plate. Grade B-

83. Stolmy Pimentel, 20.2, RHS (BOS)- A lot of projection remaining in Pimentel's skinny frame. If he adds some velo as he fills out he could open some eyes in 2010. Grade B-

84. Nick Barnese, 21.3, RHS (TB)- Classic repertoire of a 3/4 starter- low 90s fastball with a average breaking ball and a promising change- and that is what he should become Grade B-

85. Kyle Lobstein, 20.8, LHS (TB)- Great delivery and a lot of projection remaining in his frame suggest there might be more to come. Could be a 2/3 starter if he continues to develop. Grade B-

86. Max Stassi, 19.1, C (OAK)- His defense lags behind his bat at this point, but he should be able to stay behind the plate. I'm pretty high on him. Grade B-

87. Tyler Skaggs, 18.8, LHS (LAA)- Supremely projectable, he reminds me of the Lobstein. Tremendous get for the Angels in the supplemental first round. It might take him a while, but he has a huge ceiling. Grade B-

88. Andy Oliver, 22.4, LHS (DET)- Secondary stuff went backwards, but he has shown promise with both his change and slider in the past. Could rise quickly as a late-inning arm, or take on a slower development path as a starter. I'd choose the latter.  Grade B-

89. Carlos Gutierrez, 23.6, RHP (MIN)- Love the groundballs and stuff. May not be suited to start, I think he could become a 2 inning set-up guy, similar to what Masterson was in Boston for several months. Grade B-

90. Nick Weglarz*, 22.4, LF (CLE)- Not sure what to make of Weglarz. OBP is great, but needs to show some more power. He is still very young and could become a monster if he does. Grade B-

91. Adrian Cardenas*, 22.6, 2B/3B (OAK)- Not the typical third baseman, but I think he will hit for a high enough average to make it work. More of a second division regular than a true 5. Grade B-

92. Ryan Kalish, 22.0, OF (BOS)- Another guy who strikes me as a lower division regular rather than a true 5. Saw him play in the AFL and I'm not at all convinced he can play center. I like the plate discipline and he showed more power in 2009, but he's not a classic corner outfield bat. I think he is the type of player who offers traditionally undervalued things such as good defense and OBP, but Im not sure he'll do enough to profile as a regular for a contending team. He's still young, but seems pretty much maxed out physically. Grade B-

93. Fautino De Los Santos, 24.2, RHP (OAK)- Reports have been positive since he has come back from TJ. I've always liked the arm, but lets see what his command is like in 2010 before going higher. Grade B-

94. Jordan Walden, 22.5, RHS (LAA)- Higher ceiling than a lot of B- prospects, but command and health injuries prevent me from going higher. Grade B-

95. Gabriel Noriega, 19.8, SS (SEA)- Really burst onto the prospect scene with a huge 2009 season. I think KG is a little high, but I like him. Plays defense and should hit enough to have a lot of value. Grade B-

96. Reymond Fuentes, 19.1, CF (BOS)- He's raw but has a lot of talent. With his blazing speed he could be a future gold glove center fielder, and scouts think he will hit for power. Grade B-

97. Alex Torres, 22.4, LHP (TB)- Love ground balls and strikeouts, but I'm concerned about command. His breaking balls could make him a dynamite left-handed specialist. Grade B-

98. Michael Pineda, 21.3, RHP (SEA)- Scouts don't like him, but I find it very hard to believe that a kid who put up a 7.89K/BB and 1.65 GO/AO as a 20 year-old in the Cal league- who, by the way, has projectable 6'5" frame- won't be able to stick in the rotation! I think he becomes a solid 4th starter, provided he stays healthy. Grade B-

99. Adam Moore, 25.11, C (SEA)- I don't think the ceiling is as high as most, but there is a lot of value in 6 controllable years of a major league catcher. Grade B-

100. Xavier Avery, 20.3, CF (BAL)- 4 star running back recruit committed to Georgia. He is just learning the finer arts of the game, but the strides he has made are astounding considering his lack of baseball experience. Hasn't shown much power to date, but scouts think it's there. Grade B-

101. Peter Bourjos, 23.0, CF (LAA)- I question whether he will hit enough to be a regular. He raised his walk rate after a wrist injury, but didn't hit when he walked, and before that he didn't walk when he hit. I see him winding up as a very good 4th OF. Grade B-

102. Jean Segura, 20.1, 2B (LAA)- According to his Pioneer league manager, Tom Kotchman, Segura may have been the best position player prospect in the league. If he can stay healthy he could play next to Erick Aybar for a long time. Actually reminds me a lot of Howie Kendrick. Grade B-

103. Grant Desme, 24.0, RF (OAK)- Not sure anyone really has a good handle on this guy. Tools are there, but he swings and misses at too many pitches for me. Grade B-

104. Pedro Figueroa, 24.4, LHP (OAK)- The winner of the A's 2009 pitcher of the year award, he rushes his fastball from 90 all the way to 95 mph with a good slider, but he's 24 and his command is poor. Should become a very good left-handed specialist. Grade B-

105. Danny Gutierrez, 23.1, RHS (TEX)- Stuff will play, but there are makeup and injury concerns. I think he will become solid 4th starter. Grade B-

106. Christopher Dweyer, 22.0, LHP (KC)- He is very raw, but when he is on he shows electric stuff. Whether he is a starter or reliever depends on development of change and command. Grade B-

107. Gary Sanchez, 17.4, C (NYY)- $3 million dollar bonus baby. Yankees like his athleticism and offensive potential, but it is tough to grade him with absolutely no pro data. Grade B-

108. Luis Lebron, 25.1, RHR (BAL)- One of the best pure arms in the minors. Must improve control, but he could become an interesting late inning reliever by 2010-11. He reminds me of Jose Arrendondo. Grade B-

109. Manny Banuelos, 19.1, LHS (NYY)- At only 5'10" 155 can he stay in the rotation long-term? Love the results but stuff seems to dictate that he's more of a back-of-the rotation arm. Grade B-

110. Greg Halman, 22.7, CF (SEA)- 2009 was a disaster, but he still has the 5-tool potential that enticed scouts in 2008. I wouldn't bet on him figuring it out, but he has so much potential I'm willing to roll the dice here. Grade B-

111. Max Kepler*, 17, CF (MIN)- Signed for $800,000 out of Germany (the most ever given to a player from Europe or Australia), Kepler is a potential 5-tool monster. A very good article about Kepler can be found here. Grade B-

112. Michael Brantley*, 22.11, CF/LF (CLE)- Unorthodox player. Not sure he's a regular, but he is major league ready, walks and can run. There is a lot of value in that. Grade B-

113. Zach McAllister, 22.4, RHS (NYY)- I think McAllister is generally overrated. He's not a big strikeout or ground ball guy. The only thing he really does well is limiting the walks. I think people get sucked in by the 6'6" frame, but his stuff is just solid. More of a back of the rotation guy, for me. Grade B-

114. Jordan Danks, 23.8, CF (CWS)- Ryan Sweeney clone (but a better center fielder). Solid second division regular. Should join his older brother in 2011. Grade B-

115. Angel Morales, 20.4, RF (MIN)- He has big-time power, a strong arm, and plus speed. Morales is still raw, but he made great strides in 2009 by cutting his strikeout rate almost twelve percent. Grade B-

116. John Lamb, 19.9, LHS (KC)- Potential first round pick before broke his arm in a car accident and missed his entire senior season. The Royals took a chance on his potential, and that gamble could pay off big. He is a projectable left-hander, who profiles as a 3/4 starter. Grade B-

117. Randall Grichuk, 18.7, LF (LAA)- Lost in the shuffle of Trout's great debut was the fact that the Angels had another 2009 first round pick who performed well. He needs to watch the Ks as he moves up, but an interesting power hitter to watch. Grade B-

118. Nick Franklin#, 19.1, SS (SEA)- Reminds me of a slightly less toolsy version of fellow 2009 draftee Jiovanny Mier. Mier offers a little more athleticism and bat, though. Grade B-

119. Julio Morban*, 18.2, CF/LF (SEA)- He has solid pitch recognition skills and exceptional hand-eye coordination. Those traits allowed him to put up solid numbers as a seventeen year-old in the AZL. Grade B-

120. Jon Bachanov, 21.2, RHP (LAA)- Bachanov is another underrated prospect IMO. He has a big 6'5" frame, and an even bigger fastball. He underwent Tommy John in 2008, but he looked great coming back in 2009. Durability questions will probably confine him to the pen, but he has the stuff to close. Grade B-

121. Ryan Strieby, 24.8, 1B (DET)- Strieby is probably the most unknown power-hitting prospect in the minor leagues. If he's healthy he could be a monster, but chronic wrist problems have me worried. Grade B-

122. Lou Marson, 23.9, C (CLE)- People are too hung up on what he doesn't do (hit for power) and loose sight of what he can do (play defense and provide OBP) Major league ready 2nd division regular. Grade B-

123. Kelvin De La Cruz, 21.8, LHS (CLE)- Popular breakout candidate before injury. Reports from instructional league were positive, so I look for De La Cruz to have a big 2010 season. Grade B-

124. Jeff Bianchi, 23.5, SS/2B (KC)- Not a star, but safe bet to contribute. Should hit for good average. Question is whether he can handle short. A move to second hurts his value. Grade B-

125. Mychal Givens, 19.11, SS (BAL)- Obviously no pro data to go on, but I love to scouting reports on Givens. Hit 97 off the mound, so he obviously has the arm to go with plus range and solid hands at short. At the plate he is more raw, but he has bat speed and a patient approach. Big time sleeper IMO. Grade B-

126. Joe Benson, 22.1, CF (MIN)- Phenomenal athlete who had an offer to play football at Purdue. Tools are all there, but needs to translate them into skills. Like increased walk rate, needs to watch Ks. Grade B-

127. Mitch Moreland*, 24.7, LF (TEX)- Bat will carry him to the bigs, but he's a below average outfielder, and he doesn't have the power for first. I see him as more of a reserve than a regular, but I seem to be the low man. Grade B-

128. Tyler Chatwood, 20.4, RHS (LAA)- Love the athleticism and stuff. Needs to improve command. Grade B-

129. Ryan Chaffee, 21.2, RHS (LAA)- CLove the ground balls and strikeouts, but he needs to improve his command. A sleeper of mine. Grade C+

130. Jason Kipnis*, 23.0, 2B/OF (CLE)- I like the bat. Can he handle second? Grade C+

131. Kam Mickolio, 25.11, RHR (BAL)- Hitters are not comfortable in the box against him (especially righties). Could be a set-up guy provided he is healthy in 2010. Grade C+

132. Michael Bowden, 23.7, RHS (BOS)- I might be a little harsh on Bowden (anyone out there who wants to convince me go ahead), but I don't see him as more than a middle reliever or 5th starter. His peripherals were pretty bad in AAA- 1.87 K/BB and a .55 GO/AO ratio. Those kind of numbers are not going to play at the big level, especially in the AL East. In fairness, he was a lot better in 2008, but I'm not sure I believe in the stuff. Grade C+

133. Daniel Fields*, 19.2, SS/3B/CF (DET)- Good athlete, but he's not likely going to be a good defensive center fielder, so he is really going to have to hit. Lot of upside. Grade C+

134. Zach Putnam, 22.9, RHP (CLE)- Putnam is Carlos-Gutierrez-light, for me. He's a sinker/slider guy, who has bounced between starting and relieving. He doesn't have the same pure stuff, but I think he could become a solid two-inning reliever. Grade C+

135. Mark Melancon, 25.0, RHR (NYY)- Love the minor league numbers- struck guys out, showed good control, and got ground balls. But he really struggled in his big league debut. Grade C+

136. TJ House, 20.6, LHS (CLE)- House put together an impressive season in 2009, especially considering he had no prior pro experience. Fluid delivery, could become solid mid-rotation starter. Grade C+

137. Alex Perez, 20.8, LHS (CLE)- One of the most underrated prospects in the minors, IMO. Perez has advanced secondary stuff, and while he fastball sits in the upper 80s right now, as he fills out his 6'2" 156 pound frame he should gain some mph. I look for him to take off in 2010. Grade C+

138.  Cameron Coffey, LHS (BAL)- Recovering from Tommy John surgery, but the Orioles liked him enough to dole out a $990,000 bonus. Great 6'4" projectable frame, could be a monster if he comes back from the surgery strong. Grade C+

139. Madison Younginer, 19.5, RHP (BOS)- Big time fastball, and a ton of potential, but a lot of questions. I imagine he will be used very cautiously in his pro debut. Grade C+

140. Garrett Richards, 21.10, RHS (LAA)- Love the stuff, but college struggles tell me that hitters get a good look at him. Angels might be able to help him fix that, but it won't be easy. Grade C+

141. Kelvin De Leon, 19.5, RF (NYY)- Very good athlete with big time power potential. Has the arm to stay in right. Needs to hone his pitch recognition skills. Grade C+

142. Josh Donaldson, 24.4, C (OAK)- Very good 2009 season, but it's important to remember hitting environment. Not confident he can remain behind the plate. Grade C+

143. Stephen Fife, 23.6, RHS (BOS)-  I think he could find himself as an innings eating 4th starter for the right team (read NL). But in the AL he probably fits in more as a middle reliever. Grade C+

144. Brent Morel, 22.11, 3B (CWS)- He put up very good numbers in the Carolina league last year and then won the AFL batting title, but I'm not convinced he has the tools to profile as a regular. Grade C+

145. Dayan Viciedo, 21.1, 3B/1B (CWS)- Chances of him sticking at third are almost nil, but he is still very young and has a lot of raw power. I'm not a believer, but there is still a lot of potential. Grade C+

146. JR Murphy, 18.10, C (NYY)- Murphy only began catching his senior year of high school, so it will be interesting to see whether or not he can stick behind the plate. He has the tools to, and the bat should certainly play there. Grade C+

147. Sean Doolittle*, 23.6, 1B/LF (OAK)- Actually pretty similar to Mitch Moreland- two-way college player who plays 1st and left as a pro. I give the edge to Moreland, because he is a better outfielder and has stayed healthy. Grade C+

148. Roman Mendez, RHS (BOS)- Intriguing combination of stuff, polish, and projection. Grade C+

149. Miguel Velazquez, 21.11, RF (TEX)- Big time makeup concerns, but 5-tool potential. He is a long way away, but has the tools to be a major league right fielder. Grade C+

150. Joe Wieland, 20.2, RHS (TEX)- I'm a big fan of Wieland. He's a projectable right-hander who has already gained some velo since high school. He has plus command for a young starter and the makings of a plus curve. His ceiling isn't huge, but I look for him to open some eyes in 2010. I think he will eventually settle in as a 4th starter. Grade C+

Honorable Mentions:

Drake Britton, LHR, (BOS)- Reports out of instructional league had him hitting 97. If he can maintain that throughout the season he could be an impact reliever along the lines of Matt Thorton

Matt Sweeney, 3B/1B/LF, (TB)- Huge raw power, but big time problems against lefties and questions over his position keep him out of the top 50.

Ian Krol, 18.11, LHS (OAK)- Makeup concerns, and a lower ceiling than most over-slot high school guys, but he has three solid pitches and good pitchability. Could become a solid 3rd starter.

Max Ramirez, 25.6, C/DH (TEX)- Willing to give him an injury mulligan, but I was never a big fan to begin with. The bat is nice, but I'm not sure he can stay behind the plate.

Carlos Rosa, 25.6, RHR (KC)- Big time arm, but he lacks consistency. He should help the Royals out of the pen starting in 2010. <!--EndFragment--> 

Rich Poythress, 22.8, 1B (SEA)- Probably won't hit enough to profile at first, but who knows? He's a patient hitter who was a great college slugger. 

Poll

Which team has the best farm system in the American League?

5%

Boston Red Sox

7 votes

39%

Texas Rangers

50 votes

8%

Cleveland Indians

11 votes

46%

Tampa Bay Rays

58 votes

126 votes | Poll has closed

Continue reading this post »

I have already completed my AL East Top 51 (link) and my AL West Top 51 (link) lists, and I plan to compile them into a AL Top 153 list, before moving onto the NL divisions. My rough guideline for the system grades is as follows: I'm shooting for 4 5-star systems, 6 4-star, 10 3-star, 6 2-star, and 4 1-star systems (although these are not rigid parameters). For player grading I basically use John's system (but I may be a bit more generous). An A grade is a top 4-8 guy, A- Top 20-25, B+ Top 65, B Top 135, B- Top 240. All Ages are of Opening Day.

The AL Central list is the beneficiary of Detroit's Granderson/Jackson trade, Cleveland's Lee and V-Mart trades, and some big international free agent signings (Arguelles, Sano, and Kepler). The division doesn't have the same elite level talent of the East or West, but there are good number of B+ and B range prospects, giving the division good depth (Although the White Sox's system really drags this division down).

1. Carlos Santana#, 24.0, C (CLE)- The Dodgers were willing to trade Santana to the Indians provided the Indians picked up the $2 million remaining on Casey Blake's contract. The Indians jumped at the opportunity, and the rest, as they say, is history. Santana combines patience, contact ability, average, and power into one special package. To top it off he plays a premium position, and he plays it well. The Indians may opt give him some seasoning in AAA (and delay his arbitration clock) to start the season, but he should be up for good at some point during the 2010 season. I don't think Santana is in Wieters territory, but he is an elite prospect. Grade A

2. Aaron Hicks#, 20.6, CF (MIN)- Clocked at 97 mph off the mound coming out of high school, many teams preferred Hicks as a pitcher, but he wanted to play in the field and the Twins were happy to oblige. Hicks is a true 5-tool player, who many scouts envision becoming a 30-30 guy down the road. However, he is more polished than most give him credit for. He has walked in almost 14 percent of his plate appearances and he struck out in just 22 percent of his at-bats as a teenager in the Mid West League. Grade A-

3. Casey Crosby 21.7, LHS (DET)- The Tigers kept him on a very short leash as he recovered from Tommy John (75-80 pitches a start), but he may have the best stuff of any left-hander in the minor leagues. A wide receiver in HS, Crosby is very athletic. If he can stay healthy and improve his change, he could become a true #1. Health concerns prevent me from going higher. Grade B+

4. Mike Montgomery, 20.10, LHS (KC)- I feel like there are two camps forming around Montgomery. One views him as a potential ace and is overrating him, and in response to that a second group has formed which underrates him. While I don't think he is a future ace, he has a great blend of polish and projection. His fastball sits 91-92 now, but as he fills out his athletic 6'5" 180 pound frame he should add some velo. He is a 2/3 starter for me, with a relatively low floor for such a young arm. Grade B+

5. Jacob Turner, 18.10, RHS (DET)- Signed for a $5.5 million dollar big league deal, Turner is a potential top of the rotation arm. Scouts love his 6'5" 210 pound frame, and his repertoire is advanced for a high school arm, but I feel like some are predicting him to follow a Porcello-like development path and that is not fair. Grade B+

6. Lonnie Chisenhall*, 21.6, 3B (CLE)- Chisenhall was the top rated freshman coming into 2007, but he was kicked out of South Carolina for theft and resumed his career at Pitt CC in North Carolina. It was a bit of a surprise when the Indians popped him in the first round in 2008, but he has made them look smart since, rising to AA in his first full season. Chisenhall has transitioned nicely to third in pro ball, and while he is not a huge power guy, his bat profiles at the hot corner. In my mind, he is one of the better third base prospects in the game. Grade B+

7. Danny Duffy, 21.3, LHS (KC)- I like Duffy more than most. He doesn't project to be a front of the rotation starter, but he has a solid three pitch repertoire and great command. His secondary stuff is better than he is given credit for, and he could be in Kansas City sometime in 2011. He profiles as a 3rd starter for me, but a safe bet to become one.Grade B+

8. Wilson Ramos, 22.8, C (MIN)- Lack of plate discipline limits his ceiling, but he is still pretty clearly the second best catching prospect in the American League. He is a plus defender, who receives and throws the ball well. He should hit for average and 15-20 homeruns a year. He reminds me a bit of Yadier Molina, not quite the defender, but he should hit for more power. Grade B+

9. Nick Hagadone, 24.3, LHP (CLE)- The main piece the Indians got back in the Victor Martinez trade, Hagadone worked his way back from Tommy John in 2009. His fastball/slider combination could make him a dominating closer if his health or his change do not allow him to start. He gets a lot of groundballs, and scouts are not worried about his delivery, so I am optimistic about his chances to become a starter. Grade B+

10. Aaron Crow, 23.5, RHS (KC)- Failed to sign with the Nats in 08, but reached a $3 million dollar big league deal with KC in 2009. Good fastball w/sink, and a plus slider. He needs to make progress with his change to become a 2/3 starter. If he can't he could become a closer. He should move through the system quickly, even as a starter. Grade B+

11. Dan Hudson, 23.1, RHS (CWS)- A huge find for the White Sox in the 5th Round of the 2008 draft. Hudson absolutely dominated 4 minor league levels in 2009, posting an absurd 4.86 K/BB ratio. Some scouts worry about his ceiling, but I find it hard to believe he will be less than a solid 3rd starter. Grade B+

12. Eric Hosmer*, 20.5, 1B (KC)- It was a disappointing year for Hosmer whichever way you slice it, but the Royals are optimistic that the LASIK surgery he underwent following the season will correct his vision issues for good. I love his swing, and I am confident he will bounce back with a strong 2010 campaign. Grade B

13. Kyle Gibson, RHS (MIN)- There was talk of Gibson going as high as third overall to the Padres, but a fractured wrist a week before the draft caused him to fall all the way to the Twins with the 22nd pick. When Gibson is healthy he gets a lot of groundballs with his 88-91 mph 2-seamer, and strikeouts with his advanced slider and change. If he is healthy, Gibson could fly through the minor leagues. He doesn't have a ceiling much (if any) higher than a 3rd starter, but he is a pretty safe bet to reach that. Grade B

14. Austin Jackson, 23.2, CF (DET)- The heir apparent to the Tigers' center field job, Jackson should be up to the task. He is a good athlete, although he is not the burner his Georgia Tech basketball scholarship might suggest. He has the range to play center, and should steal about 20 bases a year. Jackson should also hit for a decent average, but he has not walked or hit for power much in the minors. Scouts think he will develop 15-20 homerun power eventually. Jackson isn't a future star, but he should have a long career as a major league center fielder starting in 2010. Grade B

15. Mike Moustakas*, 21.7, 3B (KC)- The holder of California's career and single season homerun records, Moustakas has not lived up to the draft day expectations. He has a very thick lower half, and is a well below average defensive third baseman (some scouts would like to see him moved behind the plate, and I think that would be a great idea, although it is unlikely the Royals chose to do so). While he hasn't put up big offensive numbers, Wilmington and the Mid West League are tough offensive environments, and scouts still like the bat speed and swing. I think Moustakas profiles as a major league regular at third. His bat will likely be above-average, while his defense will be below average. Grade B

16. Carlos Carasco, 23.1, RHS (CLE)- It's easy to forget how young Carrasco still is. He has always been a guy who has pitched under his stuff, but I think he will figure it out. He strikes me as a solid 3/4 starter (with the potential to become more), who should contribute significantly in 2010. He isn't as sexy as some of the names below him, but he is a valuable prospect. Grade B

17. Tyler Flowers, 24.2, C (CWS)- The main piece acquired from the Braves for Javier Vasquez, Flowers made impressive strides behind the plate in 2009. He now projects to stay there, although he is likely to always be below average defensively. The strikeouts worry me some, but he should bring enough OBP and homeruns to make up for his defensive deficiencies. Should be a solid regular behind the plate beginning in 2011. Grade B

18. Wil Myers*, 19.2, C/3B/RF (KC)- Signed for a $2 million dollar bonus, Myers had what was almost certainly the most impressive pro debut of any 2009 draftee. It's important not to read too much into 80 plate appearances in the Pioneer League, but it's tough not to get carried away when envisioning what Myers could become. He has drawn some Dale Murphy comparisons for his frame and swing. Experience and the possibility that he will have to move to third or right prevent a higher grade. Grade B

19. Tim Melville, 20.6, RHS (KC)- Very solid pitching prospect. There is projection remaining in the frame, and scouts like the delivery. Needs to improve command and changeup to take the next step. Grade B

20. Ben Revere*, 21.11, CF (MIN)- Hasn't shown any power as a pro, but the Twins feel he will be more than a singles hitter when all is said and done. Great defensive potential, although his arm is below average. Walked more than he struck out in 2009. He should have a long career as a leadoff hitter. Grade B

21. Jason Knapp, 19.7, RHP (CLE)- The jewel of the Cliff Lee trade, Knapp was shut down shortly after the trade and underwent surgery, "to remove lose bodies from his shoulder," at the end of the season. The injury and surgery were not considered serious, and Knapp should be healthy for Spring Training, but health concerns linger due to questions about his delivery. Knapp has front of the rotation potential, but there are too many questions for me to rank him higher (command? health? change?). Grade B

22. Jared Mitchell*, 21.5, CF (CWS)- A wide receiver on LSU's football team until his junior year, Mitchell was one of the best athletes in the 2009 draft. His arm is below average, but he has the other four tools in spades. He is very raw for a first round college player, so it will likely take him several years before he is ready for the big leagues. Grade B

23. Miguel Sano, 17, 3B/RF (MIN)- The Twins signed Sano for $3.15 million after an extensive search by MLB into his age and identity turned up nothing. Sano has the potential to be a real impact player. Scouts rate his arm as  a 6-7, and his bat speed should allow him to hit for both average and power. It is pretty much a given that Sano will have to move off of short, the only question is whether he will wind up at third or in right. High bust potential, but his ceiling is just about as high as anyone's on this list. Grade B

24. Scott Sizemore, 25.3, 2B (DET)- Sizemore should be a solid regular starting in 2010 (provided he is fully recovered from a broken ankle suffered in the AFL). His range is below average, but he walks, hits for average, and could hit 15-20 homeruns. Grade B

25. Alex Avila*, 23.2, C (DET)- Avila should be a solid catcher, but I'm not reading much into his major league trial. Making evaluations bases on small sample sizes in September is a recipe for disaster. Avila has made strides defensively, but he is still a bit below average. His bat should be average to a tick above. It will be interesting to see if the Tigers chose to move Laird at some point. Grade B

26. Alex White, 21.7, RHP (CLE)- There was talk of White going in the top 5, but questions about his ability to remain a starter pushed him Cleveland at 15. Those questions stem from the fact that White relies on a splitter as his only reliable off-speed pitch. Indications are that the Indians will groom him as a starter, but I think his ultimate home will be as a set-up man or closer. Grade B

27. Noel Arguelles, 19, LHS (KC)- The Royals signed Arguelles for $7 million. They love his wide-receiver like build and give him high marks for his athleticism. He was clocked 91-94 pitching in Cuba before his defection, and reports are that he has the makings of a plus change. KLAW had his as a top 5 pick in this year's draft, but the consensus has him as a late-first/sandwich talent. Grade B-

28. Daniel Schlereth, 23.11, LHR (DET)- I originally had Schlereth as a B, but command and durability concerns pushed him to a B-. He has the potential to be a dominant late-inning reliever. Grade B-

29. Adrian Salcedo, 18.11, RHS (MIN)- Baseball America ranked him as the 6th prospect in the GCL after he dominated the league, posting a 58-3 K/BB ratio! He has a loose arm and projectable frame. He pounds the zone with strikes and gets groundballs. He may not have ace potential, but he is a very interesting name. Grade B-

30. Hector Rondon, 22.1, RHS (CLE)- I feel like I might be the low man on Rondon. The numbers are great, but I'm concerned that he relies to heavily on his fastball. His secondary stuff is fringy, and he profiles as a 4th starter at the big league level, for me. Grade B-

31. Danny Valencia, 25.6, 3B (MIN)- He has made a very slow march through the Twins system, but he is a good Spring Training away form seizing the big league third base job, and I think he'll do it. He may not have the tools to be a solid-regular, but I think he could have a substantial career as a second-division regular at third. Grade B-

32. Andy Oliver, 22.4, LHS (DET)- If you recall, the NCAA ruled Oliver ineligible for having an advisor present in negotiations after being drafted in HS. He sued the NCAA, won, and was reinstated (along with being awarded $750,000). Many projected Oliver as a first round pick heading into the season, but his secondary stuff regressed and he threw almost exclusively fastballs some starts. He could become a late-inning left-handed reliever, but with Schlereth and Coke already in Detroit, it would make sense for the Tigers to give Oliver the time to develop as a starter. Grade B-

33. Carlos Gutierrez, 23.6, RHP (MIN)- Gutierrez ranked 11th on Baseball America's Florida State League top 20, but he struggled once he was promoted to AA. He flashes a 92-94 power sinker and a good slider, but he is very inconsistent. A closer in college, the Twins think he wore down at the end of the season. It remains to be seen whether the Twins will develop Gutierrez as a starter or reliever in 2010. I think he could become a 2 inning set-up guy, similar to what Justin Masterson was in Boston for several months. Grade B-

34. Christopher Dweyer, 22.0, LHP (KC)- A rare draft-eligible freshman, Dweyer signed for $1.45 million. He is very raw, but when he is on he shows electric stuff. If he cannot improve his command, change, and find enough consistency to become a starter he could become a late-inning reliever similar to Schlereth. Grade B-

35. Max Kepler*, 17, CF (MIN)- Signed for $800,000 out of Germany (the most ever given to a player from Europe or Australia), Kepler is a potential 5-tool monster. A very good article about Kepler can be found here. Grade B-

36. Michael Brantley*, 22.11, CF/LF (CLE)- The player to be named in the CC Sabathia trade, Brantely looks like a classic tweener. He is a plus runner, but his below average arm makes him better suited for left. He draws walks and is a very proficient base-stealer, but he has hit only 10 homeruns in the past two years. That power won't cut it in left for most teams, but I think he would bring enough value to be a solid 4th OF or a 2nd division regular. Grade B-

37. Jordan Danks, 23.8, CF (CWS)- The little brother of John Danks, Jordan could join his brother in the major leagues in the next year or two. Jordan is often compared to Ryan Sweeney. They both are big left-handed hitters, but neither hits for much power. Danks is a better defender, although he is a tick below average in center. I think Danks will be a second division regular. Grade B-

38. Angel Morales, 20.4, RF (MIN)- The top Puerto Rican prospect in the 2008 draft, the Twins are very excited about Morales' athleticism. He has big-time power, a strong arm, and plus speed. Morales is still raw, but he made great strides in 2009 by cutting his strikeout rate almost twelve percent. Grade B-

39. John Lamb, 19.9, LHS (KC)- Lamb was a potential first round pick heading into 2008, but he broke his arm in a car accident and missed his entire senior season. The Royals took a chance on his potential, and that gamble could pay off big. He is a projectable left-hander, who profiles as a 3/4 starter. Grade B-

40. Ryan Strieby, 24.8, 1B (DET)- Strieby is probably the most unknown power-hitting prospect in the minor leagues. One reason is that wrist injuries have nagged him throughout his career, cutting his 2009 season short. If he is 100 percent healthy in 2010 he could have a huge year, but it seems unlikely that he will be fully recovered. Strieby's health will determine his career path. He could become a regular. Grade B-

41. Lou Marson, 23.9, C (CLE)- A somewhat disappointing 2009 season has removed some of the luster from Marson, but he is still a solid prospect. He plays solid defense, and he figures to put up a high enough OBP to profile as a regular, albeit a second division one. The Indians could decide to move Marson, or he and Santana could team up to form one of the best catching tandems in the game. Grade B-

42. Kelvin De La Cruz, 21.8, LHS (CLE)- De La Cruz entered 2009 as a popular breakout candidate, but he went down early in the year with an injury and missed almost the entire season. Before the injury he was sitting 89-92, but as his 6'5" frame fills out he should add some velocity. Reports from instructional league were positive, so I look for De La Cruz to have a big 2010 season. Grade B-

43. Nick Weglarz*, 22.4, LF (CLE)- I'm not really sure what to make of Weglarz. He hasn't translated his raw power into game situations yet, but he is still young. He is a poor athlete, who will always be below average defensively in left, so he is really going to have to hit to get to the majors. However, he has posted huge OBP numbers the last two years, and I wonder if that could carry him to the big leagues. Grade B-

44. Jeff Bianchi, 23.5, SS/2B (KC)- Bianchi doesn't have the star potential of many guys on this list, but like Marson he is a safe bet to become a major league contributor. His short swing generates a lot of line-drives and he should hit for a solid average at the big league level. His range is a little light for short, but he makes all the plays he gets to. Some scouts think he would be better served by moving to second, but that would increase the pressure on his bat. Bianchi profiles as a second division regular at short or second for me. Grade B-

45. Joe Benson*, 22.1, CF (MIN)- Benson is another tough guy grade. He is a phenomenal athlete who had an offer to play football at Purdue. Scouts report that they routinely time him at 4.0 down the line from the right-side, making him a plus-plus runner. Benson walked a lot in 2009, but he also struck out in 28 percent of his at-bats without showing much power. He has battled injuries throughout his career, and he will need to stay healthy to be able to turn his tools into skills. Benson is just one of those guys you have to let play. Grade B-

46. Jason Kipnis*, 23.0, 2B/OF (CLE)- Kipnis was a first team All-American as a center fielder at Arizona State. Coming into the draft, teams worried that Kipnis was a tweener in the outfield. The Indians think he has the athleticism and actions to play second, and he will begin playing there in 2010. His bat projects to be very solid at second, so he if he shows he can handle the position defensively he would become a very solid prospect. Reports out of instructional league were positive, but I need to see some game reports before I go higher. Grade C+

47. Daniel Fields*, 19.2, SS/3B/CF (DET)- The Tigers signed the hometown kid for a $1.625 million dollar bonus. Is dad, Bruce, was a former Tiger player and is currently the hitting coordinator for the Indians. Daniel is a good athlete with plus power potential, but he is very raw. He doesn't have the first step quickness to play short, so he may end up in center. Grade C+

48. Zach Putnam, 22.9, RHP (CLE)- Putnam is Carlos-Gutierrez-light, for me. He's a sinker/slider guy, who has bounced between starting and relieving. He doesn't have the same pure stuff, but I think he could become a solid two-inning reliever. Grade C+

49. TJ House, 20.6, LHS (CLE)- Signed for an above-slot bonus of $750,000 as a 16th round pick in 2008, House put together an impressive season in 2009, especially considering he had no prior pro experience. He has a fluid delivery. He has could become solid mid-rotation starter. Grade C+

50. Alex Perez, 20.8, LHS (CLE)- One of the most underrated prospects in the minors, IMO. Perez has advanced secondary stuff, and while he fastball sits in the upper 80s right now, as he fills out his 6'2" 156 pound frame he should gain some mph. I look for him to take off in 2010. Grade C+

51. Brent Morel, 22.11, 3B (CWS)- Morel replaced the injured Dayan Viciedo in the AFL and ended up winning the league's batting title. Morel draws rave reviews for his work ethic and the way he plays the game. He put up very good numbers in the Carolina league last year, but I'm not convinced he has the tools to profile as a regular. Grade C+

Honorable Mention (in no particular order):

Matt Bashore, 22.0, LHS (MIN)- Very interested left-handed arm. Question is whether or not he can stay healthy.

David Bromberg, 22.7, RHS (MIN)- Has led his league in strikeouts for three straight years! Despite those big strikeout numbers, he profiles as a 4/5th starter.

Dayan Viciedo, 21.1, 3B/1B (CWS)- Chances of him sticking at third are almost nil, but he is still very young and has a lot of raw power. 

Josh Phegley, 22.2, C (CWS)- There are questions about his bat speed and ability to stay behind the plate, but he has a tremendous work-ethic and put up big numbers in college.

Carlos Rosa, 25.6, RHR (KC)- Big time arm, but he lacks consistency. He should help the Royals out of the pen starting in 2010. 

Wilkin Ramirez, 24.5, OF (DET)- Scouts still love the tools, but his inability to control the strike zone prevents him from becoming a regular. He kills lefties (987 OPS vs 691 vs righties) and plays defense, so should become a valuable platoon outfielder. 

System Rankings:

1. Cleveland Indians- Trades have given this system a lot of depth, and with Santana they have an elite guy at the top. There is a good mix of arms and bats, and close-to-the-majors guys and lower-minors talent. The Indians totaled 16 players in the top 51- 1 A, 1 B+, 4 B, 5 B-, and 4 C+. The next five who just missed being written up were (in order): Jess Todd, Jason Donald, Abner Abreu, Scott Barnes, and Carlos Rivero. This is a very impressive system. Close to a 5 star system in fact, but I'm going to give them 4 for now, because I'm concerned that three of their top four pitching prospects (Hagadone, Knapp, and White) could all end up in the bullpen. (I also like the Rays, Red Sox, and Rangers systems more, so depending upon how the NL systems stack up, they could get bumped up to a 5 star system). 4 Star System

2. Kansas City Royals- The Royals have made some questionable moves at the major league level in recent years, but they have spent aggressively in the minor leagues, and the result is a much improved system. This system may have the best pitching of any team in baseball. Montgomery, Duffy, Crow, Melville, Arguelles, Dweyer, and Lamb are an extremely impressive group. Behind them Carlos Rosa and Blake Wood give them two potential power arms out of the pen. The hitters aren't too shabby either, although there are a lot of questions surrounding them. The Royals totaled 11 players in the top 51- 3 B+, 4 B, 4B-, and one honorable mention. The five who just missed being written up were (in order): David Lough, Tyler Sample, Blake Wood, Kila Ka'aihue, and Derrick Robinson. 4 Star System

3. Minnesota Twins- IMO, the Twins have the most interesting system in baseball. A bunch of toolsy outfielders, a potential top 5 pick in this year's draft who slipped due to a bizarre injury, and two of the most high profile international free agents of the past couple years. Writing up this system I was struck by the different philosophies surrounding the organizations view of pitchers and hitters. Almost every position prospect is a toolsy athlete, while the pitchers are polished strike-throwers. The Twins totaled 11 players in the top 51- 1 A-, 1 B+, 3 B, 6 B-, and 2 honorable mentions. The five who just missed being written up were (in order): Billy Bullock, BJ Hermsen, Chris Parmelee, Ben Tootle, and Rene Tosoni. I might like this system more than most, but I'll roll the dice on their athletes.4 Star System

4. Detroit Tigers- This system got a much needed boost from the 2009 draft and the players acquired from the Granderson/Edwin Jackson trade (Austin Jackson and Daniel Schlereth). Crosby and Turner could become true front-of-the-rotation arms, and the top 10 has decent depth. However, once you get outside the top 10 this system unravels quickly. There are a lot of potential middle relievers, and few high upside talents. 9 Tigers made the top 51- 2 B+, 3B, 3 B-, 1 C+, and one honorable mention. The five who just missed being written up were (in order): Cody Satterwhite, Melvin Mercedes, Gustavo Nunez, Alfredo Figaro, and Cale Iorg. I like the top ten enough to keep them in the middle chunk of the grading scale. 3 Star System

5. Chicago White Sox- This is unquestionably the worst system in not just the AL Central, but the entire American League. Hudson and Flowers give them some close-to-ready talent, but there is very little depth in this system. I like Santos Rodriguez as a sleeper, but he is so raw it is tough to rate him highly. Viciedo still has some impressive tools, but I'm not much of a believer. A record low, 5 White Sox made the top 51- 1 B+, 2 B, 1 C+, and there were two honorable mentions. The five who just missed being written up were (in order): Clevelan Santeliz, Trayce Thompson, Santos Rodriguez, Miguel Gonzalez, and David Holmberg. 1 Star System

Poll

How would you rank the 2,3, and 4 systems in the AL Central?

20%

1. Twins 2. Royals 3. Tigers

15 votes

5%

1. Twins 2. Tigers 3. Royals

4 votes

42%

1. Royals 2. Twins 3. Tigers

31 votes

17%

1. Royals 2. Tigers 3. Twins

13 votes

5%

1. Tigers 2. Twins 3. Royals

4 votes

8%

1. Tigers 2. Royals 3. Twins

6 votes

73 votes | Poll has closed

I have already completed my AL East Top 51, and plan to move on to the AL Central next. A few changes from the previous system rankings: I've decided to lower both the Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays from 3 star to 2 star systems (hat tip to dkdc). Those two systems certainly have talent, but now that I have gotten a better sense of a few other systems they are pretty clearly below-average. My rough guideline for the system grades is as follows: I'm shooting for 5 5-star systems, 6 4-star, 8 3-star, 6 2-star, and 5 1-star systems (although these are not rigid parameters). For player grading I basically use what John uses (but I may be a bit more generous). I think A would be about a top 5-8 guy, A- Top 25, B+ Top 65, B Top 135, B- Top 240. 

As for the AL West, obviously with only 4 teams it is a unique division. Aside from the Rangers none of the systems particularly impress me with a lot of impact talent, but they all have pretty good depth (although Seattle lags behind). I struggled with this list more than the AL East list, because I came in much more familiar with the East's prospects, so I will certainly welcome any input. All ages are of opening day 2010.

 

1. Neftali Feliz, 21.11, RHS (TEX)- It seems that some people have reservations that he may be a reliever long-term, but I am confident that he can be a front of the rotation starter. It's tough not to love his athleticism and free-and-easy delivery. At 6'3" 180 he has a great pitchers frame, that should allow him to go deep into games. Command can be an issue with him, but he is so young I think it will improve. His secondary stuff is underrated and is improving. He should be a 1 or 2 starter for a long time. Grade A

2. Dustin Ackley*, 2B/CF (SEA)- One of the most unique prospects in the game due his history of playing first despite his plus speed and the likelihood that he can be a plus defender in center (if not second). I've read reports that indicate that the Mariners plan to try Ackley at second- I would love to hear from a Mariner fan and get an update- I'm not sure whether he will be an average defender at second, but by almost every account has the makings of a plus center fielder. He has the potential to win a few batting titles to go along with 20-25 homerun power and some stolen bases. Grade A-

3. Martin Perez, 19.0, LHS (TEX)- Perez is often compared to Johan Santana for his delivery and arsenal. He does everything you want in a pitcher- strikes guys out, limits walks, and gets pretty good ground ball rates. He will likely start 2010 in AA- pitching the entire year at 19- and it's not out of the realm of possibilities that he could see some big league action late in the year. The only knock is that at only 6'0" 178 he may have trouble handling a 200 inning workload. One of the best pitching prospects in the game. With Feliz, Perez, and Holland in one rotation the Rangers could be scary in a few years. Grade A-

4. Chris Carter, 23.4, 1B (OAK)- 2009 was a big year for Carter. Coming into the year the questions were: 1) Would he make enough contact? and 2) DH or position player? He cut his strikeout rate over 6 percent, and while he committed 10 errors in 41 games at first last year, he committed only 7 in 105 games in 2009. Carter and Smoak are pretty interchangeable, but because Carter has shown more power to date he gets the nod. Grade A-

5. Justin Smoak#, 23.4, 1B (TEX)- I'm not quite as high on Smoak as most. I think he profiles as a solid regular (6) rather than a perennial all-star. I love his glove, his patience, and his power potential, but oblique injury or not I'm concerned about the lack of power. I don't think he is Lyle Overbay or anything, but I think he may be a 25 homerun guy rather than a 35 homerun guy. Another concern is his platoon split, but he may improve upon that in 2009. Grade A-

6. Michael Taylor, 24.3, RF (OAK)- Put me in the camp that thinks the A's came out on top in the Taylor for Wallace deal. I think Taylor will be a solid 5-6 in right for a long time. He's not a 5-tool guy per se, but he has a nice blend of above-average tools across the board and skills. I'm not sure he will be ready to be the opening day right fielder, but he should be up for good before September. Grade B+

7. Trevor Reckling, 20.10, LHS (LAA)- A long-time favorite of mine, Reckling has been promoted aggressively by the Angels. His K/9 dropped to 7.05 in 2009, but considering he pitched the first two moths at 19 I don't think there is any reason to worry. The walks, however, are a concern, although he has shown better control in the past. He's got the three-pitch repertoire to succeed as a starter, and I think he profiles as a number three starter. Reckling will probably need one more year in the minors, before he is ready for the big leagues. Grade B+

8. Grant Green, 22.6, SS (OAK)- To be completely honest, I'm not sure what to make of Green. Depending upon who you read, Green is either likely to have to move off of short or a future gold glove candidate. Some think he won't hit for power with wood, others like his power. I think, like in a lot of things, the answer lies somewhere in between. I think Green could be the right-handed version of Reid Brignac, only probably more offensive and less defensive value. Grade B

9. Tanner Scheppers, 23.3, RHP (TEX)- I'm a bit lower on Scheppers than the community seems to be. There is no denying his stuff. In his report from the AFL, Jason Grey gushed about his mid 90s fastball and hammer curve. Oddly enough, most scouts like his arm action and delivery; however, most teams seem to think that it is just a matter of time before he gets hurt. I tend to agree with that pessimistic view, hence the low grade. I also think he profiles as reliever more than a starter, but with his two potentially plus-plus offerings he could be a very good closer provided he stays healthy. Grade B

10. Michael Ynoa, 18.6, RHS (OAK)- Ynoa is one of the toughest guys to rank. Scouts absolutely love his stuff, delivery, and the projection remaining in his frame, but mysterious ailments kept him off the field in 2009 (any more information would be appreciated). By all accounts the injuries do not appear serious, and the A's expect him to be healthy for 2010. I know he is a long ways away, but I can't pass up his upside here. Grade B

11. Michael Main, 21.4, RHS (TEX)- I think Main is one of the most underrated prospects in this division. He has missed time the last two seasons- in 2008 because of a cracked rib and in 2009 because of a bought with mono- but the injuries have not been arm related. When he is on the field he features a lively fastball and two potential plus breaking balls. He is healthy heading into 2009, and I look for him to put up big numbers in the California league. Grade B

12. Alex Liddi, 21.8, 3B (SEA)- No I don't think Liddi is as good as his ridiculous 2009 Cal-league-aided numbers would indicate, but I think he will be a major league regular at third. Scouts love his defense, and he has solid offensive tools. He reminds me of Mike Lowell. Grade B

13. Jemile Weeks#, 23.2, 2B (OAK)- The younger brother of Rickie, Jemile should join his brother as a major league regular in the non-too-distant future. I like Jemile's tools a lot. He should be at least average defensively, he walks, has solid speed, and surprising power. He needs to iron out his right-handed swing, and to stay healthy, but I like him. Grade B

14. Carlos Triunfel, 20.1, SS/2B/3B (SEA)- Triunfel is another tough player to grade. When he has been on the field he has hit, but he has struggled to stay on the field. Hopefully he will be healthy in 2010 after missing almost the entire 2009 season. It's easy to forget that he will be only 20 this entire year. I love his hand-eye coordination, and I think he will hit for a good average and a lot of doubles. It looks like his long-term home will be third, so he will have to hit, but I think he will. Grade B

15. Hank Conger#, 22.2, C (LAA)- Conger finally stayed healthy in 2009 and put up a solid, if unspectacular season. He made solid improvements defensively, but he still has a long way to go to be even average. At the plate he showed very good patience and good contact skills, but the power he is so vaunted for wasn't there. He has great raw power, so I think it is only a matter of time before he begins to put up big homerun totals. I don't think he will ever be an average defensive catcher, but I like his bat enough to project him as a regular. Grade B

16. Mike Trout, 18.8, CF (LAA)- Trout is often compared to Aaron Rowand for the fire with which he plays the game, but Trout is a better athlete. He was very impressive in his pro debut in the AZL, but it's important not to get too worked up over 187 plate appearances in rookie ball. I think Trout will be a solid regular in center, although I think I question the bat more than most. I see him as a 280/340/420 type hitter with solid defense. Grade B

17. Fabio Martinez, 20.5, RHS (LAA)- Martinez has flown under the prospect radar to this point in his career, but after his huge 2009 season that is about to change. He led the AZL with 92 strikeouts- posting a 13.7 K/9- and he does it with an impressive repertoire. His fastball sits in the mid 90s, he has a plus-plus slider, and the makings of an average change. He could be a front of the rotation arm if he improves his command. Grade B

18. Robbie Ross, 20.9, LHS (TEX)- Ross is one of my personal favorite prospects. He gets strikeouts, doesn't walk many guys, and posted an impressive 3.21 GO/AO ratio last year. He's only 5'11" though, and durability is a concern. If he stays healthy in full season ball this year his grade could easily jump to a B+. Grade B-

19. Wilmer Font, 19.10, RHP (TEX)- Font battled weight and arm issues in 2008, but was healthy in 2009. He has an electric fastball, but it is hard to judge his future prospects because the Rangers have been so careful with his development, severely limiting the amount of breaking balls he is allowed to throw. He certainly has front-of-the-rotation potential, but I think he is much more likely to end up in the bullpen. He could ultimately end up a closer, but he is a long way away. Grade B-

20. Max Stassi, 19.1, C (OAK)- Considered by many to be the top prep catcher in a deep 2009 class, Stassi scarred some teams off with his bonus demands. He finally signed for $1.5 million, and will begin his pro career in 2010. His defense lags behind his bat at this point, but he should be able to stay behind the plate. I'm pretty high on him. Grade B-

21. Tyler Skaggs, 18.8, LHS (LAA)- Supremely projectable, Skaggs reminds me a bit of the Rays' Kyle Lobstein. They both are projectable left-handers with the potential for plus curves (although Skaggs has more projection and Lobstein the better curve). He was a tremendous get for the Angels in the supplemental first round. It might take him a while, but he has a huge ceiling. Grade B-

22. Adrian Cardenas*, 22.6, 2B/3B (OAK)- I went back and forth between a B and a B- for Cardenas (as with Ross and Font), but I finally settled on a B- due his big home-road splits in the Texas league (he played in one of the better hitter's yards in the minors) and concerns about his ability to hit left-handed pitching. His bat plays better at second, but his glove plays better at third, so it becomes a question of value as to where he will play in Oakland. I think he is more of a second-division regular rather than a solid regular at this point, but he is still young and could surprise. Grade B-

23. Fautino De Los Santos, 24.2, RHP (OAK)- De Los Santos has made only 5 starts since coming over to the A's as a part of the Nick Swisher deal, because he had Tommy John surgery in 2008. Early indications are that De Los Santos has come back strong from the surgery, and figures to have a big 2010 season. Before the surgery he had the ceiling of a 2 starter, but with the injury his development has been pushed back and he could become a late-inning bullpen option. 

24. Jordan Walden, 22.5, RHS (LAA)- Walden missed a significant amount of 2009 due to a sore elbow. That injury is likely responsible for his poor 2009. If he's healthy in 2010 he should go back to getting K's and ground balls in bunches. Walden has a higher ceiling than a lot of B- prospects, but command and health injuries prevent me from going higher. Grade B-

25. Gabriel Noriega, 19.8, SS (SEA)- Burst onto the prospect scene with a huge 2009 season. KG rated him as a 4-star prospect, and Basbeall America tabbed him as the 5th best prospect in the Appalachian league. He is a plus defender, with projection remaining in the bat. Although, by almost every account it is unlikely he will be anything more than average as a hitter. Grade B-

26. Michael Pineda, 21.3, RHP (SEA)- I appear to be higher on Pineda than most. Scouts seem convinced that he is a reliever long-term, due his failure to repeat his delivery and questions about his secondary stuff. But I find it very hard to believe that a kid who put up a 7.89K/BB and 1.65 GO/AO as a 20 year-old in the Cal league- who, by the way, has projectable 6'5" frame- won't be able to stick in the rotation! I think he becomes a solid 4th starter, provided he stays healthy. Grade B-

27. Adam Moore, 25.11, C (SEA)- Moore strikes me as more of a second-division regular than a solid 5. He should put up decent offensive numbers for a catcher, while providing average to slightly below-average defense. I don't think the ceiling is as high as most, but there is a lot of value in 6 controllable years of a major league catcher. Grade B-

28. Peter Bourjos, 23.0, CF (LAA)- Bourjos is a plus defender in center, who covers a lot of ground and has a strong arm. His defense and speed will certainly carry him to the big leagues, but I question whether he will hit enough to be a regular. He raised his walk rate after a wrist injury, but didn't hit when he walked, and before that he didn't walk when he hit. Scouts aren't wild about his swing and he never projects to hit for much power. Like Moore and Cardenas I think Bourjos is more second-division regular than a real 5, and I could see him winding up as a 4th OF in Los Angeles. Grade B-

29. Jean Segura, 20.1, 2B (LAA)- According to his Pioneer league manager, Tom Kotchman, Segura may have been the best position player prospect in the league. Segura is an extremely good athlete, who consistently squares the ball up, and struck out in only 6.8 percent of his at-bats! He has battled injuries throughout his young career, but if he can stay healthy he could play next to Erick Aybar for a long time. Actually reminds me a lot of Howie Kendrick. Grade B-

30. Grant Desme, 24.0, RF (OAK)- Desme is a very intriguing guy. He stole 40 bases in 2009, despite having only slightly above-average speed. He has extremely good power, but struck out in over 30 percent of his at-bats in 2009. Injuries have set his development back, but due to his lack of experience I don't think it is fair to hold his age against him. Scouts seem to be mystified by Desme, and Jason Grey, after polling several scouts about Desme got responses ranging from a 45 to a 60, during the AFL. I love Desme's tools, but I saw him swing-and-miss way too much during the AFL to project him as a regular. With his tool set he should have value as a reserve outfielder. Grade B-

31. Greg Halman, 22.7, CF (SEA)- Anytime a player strikes out in 40 percent of his at-bats it is hard to call the year anything but a disaster, but I'm not writing Halman off just yet. He is still young enough to make adjustments, and he still has the 5-tool potential that enticed scouts in 2008. There is a good chance that Halman cannot make the necessary adjustments and never reaches the majors, but I could see him becoming a low average, 25 homerun, good defense type of center fielder. Remember, in over 250 AA plate appearances in 2008 he only struck out 28.1 percent of the time. He has the talent. Grade B-

 32. Pedro Figueroa, 24.4, LHP (OAK)- The winner of the A's 2009 pitcher of the year award, Figueroa has a very interesting arm. He rushes his fastball from 90 all the way to 95 mph, and he features a good slider and a developing change. But he is already 24, and his command is poor. For those reasons I think Figueroa profiles a reliever, where his fastball slider combination could make him murder and left-handed hitters. Grade B-

33. Danny Gutierrez, 23.1, RHS (TEX)- After Jason Grey saw him in the AFL he called him "a potential impact starter." I think that is too bullish, especially considering his off the field issues. He can reach the mid 90s, but is more of a low 90s guy. His curve is a huge breaker, but it's a slow break, rather than a good hard downer. I have some concern that big leaguers won't be fooled by it. He has some feel for a change, and I think that three pitch repertoire will make him a solid #4 starter. Grade B-

34. Randall Grichuk, 18.7, LF (LAA)- Drafted one spot of ahead of Trout, Grichuk seems to have become the forgotten man in the Angels system. He's only 6'0" 195, but he has big time power. He apparently launched a 475 foot bomb at Tropicana during batting practice for a showcase event. He will need to limit his strikeouts and show more patience, but I like the bat. Unfortunately for the Angels, his fringy arm limits him to left, so it's all on his bat to get him to the bigs. Grade B-

35. Nick Franklin#, 19.1, SS (SEA)- Considered by some a slight overdraft, Franklin reminds me of a slightly less toolsy version of fellow 2009 draftee Jiovanny Mier. They both have wiry athletic frames and good defensive tools. Mier offers a little more athleticism and bat, though. Despite the fact that Franklin set his high schools single season homerun record- pretty impressive when you consider the notable alumni such as Jason Varitek, Felipe Lopez, and the Weeks brothers- he projects to have below average power. Grade B-

36. Julio Morban*, 18.2, CF/LF (SEA)- Signed for $1.1 million in 2008, Morban may have the most advanced bat of his class. He has solid pitch recognition skills and exceptional hand-eye coordination. Those traits allowed him to put up solid numbers as a seventeen year-old in the AZL. He's a pretty solid athlete, but his fringy arm will likely limit him to left. He's a long way away, but a very intriguing name. Grade B-

37. Jon Bachanov, 21.2, RHP (LAA)- Bachanov is another underrated prospect IMO. He has a big 6'5" frame, and an even bigger fastball. He underwent Tommy John in 2008, but he looked great coming back in 2009. Durability questions will probably confine him to the pen, but he has the stuff to close. He slipped to the supplemental first round due to character concerns. Grade B-

38. Mitch Moreland*, 24.7, LF (TEX)- Moreland slipped all the way to the 17th Round of the 07 draft due to concerns about his bat speed. However, he has answered those questions in pro ball by hitting at every level he has played. A former college pitcher, Moreland has the arm to play left, but his range will be below-average. According to Jason Grey he has convinced scouts his bat is for real. He may not ever hit more than 20 HRs, but he should post good average and on-base totals. I view him as more of a second-division regular or a solid bat off the bench. Grade B-

 39. Tyler Chatwood, 20.4, RHS (LAA)- Chatwood drew some Roy Oswalt comparisons coming out of high school for his small, athletic frame and plus stuff. I'm a big believer of athleticism in pitchers, so I'm higher on Chatwood than most. He was a legitimate 2-way prospect, and could have played in the outfield for UCLA. He needs to improve his command to remain a starter, but with his fastball and sharp curve he could be very good out of the pen. Grade B-

 40. Ryan Chaffee, 21.2, RHS (LAA)- Chaffee and Chatwood are pretty interchangeable, but I decided to give the edge to Chatwood because of his youth and athleticism. Both pitchers rack up strikeouts and struggle with their command, but while Chatwood gets a good amount of grounders, Chaffee can be qualified as a true sinkerballer, thanks to his 2.64 GO/AO. Like Chatwood, if Chaffee cannot improve his command he will head to the pen, but I think he will be able to find his way into the mid/back-end of a big league rotation. Grade C+

41. Josh Donaldson, 24.4, C (OAK)- Donaldson had a great year in 2009, walking in a whopping 15 percent of his plate appearances and slugging 37 doubles. It is worth noting that he played in a very hitter friendly park, but the numbers are still impressive. He has a good arm behind the plate and is more athletic than the typical catcher, but he struggles with his footwork and blocking skills. He should have plenty of bat to profile as a regular, but if he cannot improve his defense it will be wasted. I'm not optimistic that he will. Grade C+

42. Garrett Richards, 21.10, RHS (LAA)- Scouts didn't know what to make of Richards coming out of the 2009 draft. He had 1st round stuff, but the performance never matched it, as he got hit fairly hard in college, never posting an ERA below 6 in three seasons. That is a red flag to me, saying that hitters pick the ball up well against him. That could be corrected, but it is not an easy fix. He got off to a pro start, but an experienced college starter should dominate the Pioneer league. I think he will eventually be a middle reliever, although he has the potential to be much more. Grade C+

43. Sean Doolittle*, 23.6, 1B/LF (OAK)- Actually pretty similar to Mitch Moreland- two-way college player who plays 1st and left as a pro. I give the edge to Moreland, because he is a better outfielder and I have more confidence in the bat. Grade C+

44. Rich Poythress, 22.8, 1B (SEA)- As one of the best college bats in a weak class, I think Poythress was overrated during the draft process. He appeared to be in over his head during his pro debut in AA, and I think a more realistic assignment would be to send him to Hi A to start 2010. He shows good patience, but I'm not sold on the bat. Scouts question his bat speed, and think that he could struggle against pro fastballs on the inner half. Grade C+

45. Josh Fields, 24.7, RHR (SEA)- After the JJ Putz trade there were whispers that Fields could win Seattle's closers job in 2010. After a season in which he struggled in AA, it is clear that those whispers were way off the mark. Fields will need to improve his control and command to have success as a pro. His stuff is down from his amateur days, but I'm optimistic that he can be a productive reliever. I think the long layoff/holdout effected him, and I look for him to reestablish himself on prospect radars in 2010. Grade C+

46. Miguel Velazquez, 21.11, RF (TEX)- Velazquez missed all of 2008 due to a probation violation, and he was allegedly involved in a shooting in high school. Despite those makeup concerns, Velazquez is a solid prospect with 5-tool potential. He ranked 10th on Baseball America's Northwest League top 20 after a solid 2009 season. He is a long way away, but has the tools to be a major league right fielder. Grade C+

47. Joe Wieland, 20.2, RHS (TEX)- I'm a big fan of Wieland. He's a projectable right-hander who has already gained some velo since high school. He has plus command for a young starter and the makings of a plus curve. His ceiling isn't huge, but I look for him to open some eyes in 2010. I think he will eventually settle in as a 4th starter. Grade C+

48. Ian Krol, 18.11, LHS (OAK)- Another guy with makeup concerns, Krol missed his entire senior season because of multiple alcohol related transgressions. Undeterred, the A's signed him for $925,000 as a 7th round pick. Krol doesn't have the upside of other notable over-slot signings, but he has impressive polish for a young arm and and advanced 3 pitch repertoire. He has the upside of a 3rd starter. Grade C+

49. Max Ramirez, 25.6, C/DH (TEX)- I'm willing to give Ramirez another shot on his horrible 2009 season, as it is likely that his wrist injury was a contributing factor. However, I'm not a big fan of his. He is a poor defensive catcher, and he has only really hit for one season. He has the potential to be an offensive minded regular behind the plate, but I don't see him reaching that ceiling. Grade C+

50. Will Smith, 21.9, LHS (LAA)- Another guy I think is underrated. He's got a big 6'5" frame- although he will need to stay on top of his conditioning- and a solid three pitch repertoire. He posted a 3.95 K/BB ratio in 2009 and hitters don't seem to pick up the ball out of his hand. He should find his way into a big league rotation as a 4th/5th starter. Grade C+

51. Kasey Kiker, 22.5, LHP (TEX)- Kiker led the Texas league with a 8.57 K/9 in 2009. His velo is down from his high school days, but he is a gutty competitor who has the makings of three solid pitches. He's only 5'10" 170, and control was an issue for him in 2009, so there has been talk of him moving to the pen. I think that makes a lot of sense, and I think Kiker could be a valuable pen arm. Grade C+

Honorable Mentions (in no particular order, although Beltre would have been 52):

Engel Beltre*, 20.5, CF (TEX)- Tough to know what to make of him. Scouts don't seem too concerned, but the numbers are pretty awful. He increased his walk rate, but he hit with absolutely no authority, and didn't steal many bases. Way too early to give up on him.

Tyler Kehrer, 22.1, LHP (LAA)- Supplemental pick in 09. Good fastball, decent slider, but a long way to go with change. Could make a solid reliever.

Rolando Gomez*, 20.9, SS (LAA)- If he has the arm to stay at short he could really take off as a prospect. Great plate discipline to go with intriguing speed/power combination. 

Pat Corbin, 20.8, LHS (LAA)- Projectable left-hander who can spin a curve. 

Matt Tuiasosopo, 23.11, 3B (SEA)- Underrated athlete. I wouldn't bet that he becomes a regular, but I think the chance is much higher than most. 

Steve Baron, 19.4, C (SEA)- Good defensive catcher. Will he hit enough to be a regular?

Corey Brown*, 24.4, RF (OAK)- Not a big fan due to high K numbers, but he is a solid athlete who had offers to play college football as a wide receiver. He's not as good of a prospect as Desme, but I think the gap is closer than a lot of people realize.

Tyson Ross, 22.11, RHS (OAK)- Mechanics and lack of Ks scare me. I think he is more of a middle reliever than an innings eater. 

System Rankings:

1. Texas Rangers- An obvious choice, no system in this division has close to the amount of impact talent. I was disappointed by the depth of the system, though. The depth isn't below-average by any means, but as they are so consistently billed as a premier system in the game I was expecting more. Outside of the top 15 there are a lot of middle relievers and potential back-end starters. In my rankings the Rangers had 14 players- 1 A, 2 A-, 2 B, 4 B-, 4 C+, and 1 HM. The five who just missed being written up- in order- were Jurickson Profar, Guillermo Moscoso, Kennil Gomez, Blake Beavan, and Robbie Erlin. This system's top 8 would give any system in a game a run for their money, and the depth is probably slightly above-average. 5 Star system

2. Oakland Athletics- A good mix of major league ready talent and high upside guys in the low minors. The system has good depth, and should help Oakland contend in the coming years. The position players are much more impressive than the pitches, although considering the clubs major league composition that may be a plus, and Ynoa and De Los Santos' upsides are up there with any system's top two arms. The A's totaled 15 players in my rankings- 1 A-, 1 B+, 3 B, 5 B-, 3 C+, and 2 HM. The five who just missed being written up (in order), were: Henry Rodriguez, Tyler Ladendorf, Anthony Capra, Arnold Leon, and Rushun Dixon. 3 Star System

3. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim- The Angels don't have the top of the system to compete with the Rangers or even the A's, but this system has a ton of depth. I loved their 2009 draft, and it has the potential to make this system look very good in the coming years. The Angels are also and underrated team as far as Latin American presence. They don't make many big international signings, but they seem to consistently produce quality talents and Fabio Martinez and Jean Segura certainly fit that mold. The Angels led the West with 17 players written up: 1 B+, 3 B, 7 B-, 3 C+, 3 HM. The top five not written up (in order) were: Mark Trumbo, Michael Kohn, Alexia Amarista, Carlos Ramirez, and Chris Pettit. Below-average top of the system combined with great depth makes them an average system in my book. 3 Star System

Seattle Mariners- A slew of 2009 injuries and the Cliff Lee trade have thinned this system, but there is still talent. Ackley provides a potential impact player, and the Mariners have been one of the most aggressive teams in Latin America. There are enough high upside guys in the low minors that this time next year this system could look a lot better. The Mariners had 13 players written up: 1 A-, 2 B, 6 B-, 3 C+, and 2 HM. The top 5 not written up (in order) were: Mario Martinez, James Jones, Mike Carp, Dennis Raben, and Jharmidy DeJesus. I probably like this system more than most, but even for me it is pretty clearly below-average. 2 Star System

Poll

The second best system in the AL West belongs to the:

10%

Seattle Mariners

17 votes

85%

Oakland Athletics

136 votes

3%

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

6 votes

159 votes | Poll has closed

1. Brian Matusz, 23.2, LHS- He may not have the velocity of an ace, but his 4 pitch repertoire, command, and makeup make him a rare pitching prospect. Comes into 2010 as one of the frontrunners for the AL ROY. May not ever be a true number 1, but should be a 2 for a long time. Grade A

2. Desmond Jennings, 23.5, CF- Finally healthy in 2009, Jennings put up a huge season. He is a rare 5 tool/ 7 skill player that should impact the game in a lot of ways. Depending upon when he is brought to the big leagues he could challenge Matusz for AL ROY. Grade A

3. Jesus Montero, 20.4, C/DH- May be the best hitter in the minors right now. He absolutely dominated the Eastern League as a teenager. He projects to hit for both average and power, and while his plate discipline isn't great it is not a concern due to his youth. The only thing that holds him back from an A grade is his lack of a position. Grade A-

4. Casey Kelly, 20.6, RHS- Now that he has devoted himself to pitching full time he could be scary good. He has pretty much everything you look for in a pitching prospect- athleticism, command, he generates, ground balls, and there is still projection remaining in his frame. The only thing he doesn't yet have is post big strikeout numbers, but I have no reason to believe he can't/won't be able to strike guys out down the road. I'm not sure he has the pure stuff of a number one, but he could definitely be a solid number 2. Grade A-

5. Ryan Westmoreland, 20.0, CF- Westmoreland's $2 million dollar bonus looks like a bargain right now. Like Jennings Westmoreland is a 5 tool/7 skill player. Unfortunately, like Jennings he has battled injuries throughout his pro career. If he stays healthy he could be a Grady Sizemore like impact player. Grade A-

6. Jeremy Hellickson, 23.0, RHS- Doesn't have an elite fastball, but his secondary stuff is plus and he doesn't walk guys. I love the K/BB ratio. My one concern is that he will be hurt by the longball in the majors. I see him as a 2/3 starter. Seems ready for the big leagues in 2010, but Rays' starting pitching depth will allow him to get some more work in AAA. Grade A-

7. Kyle Drabek, 22.4, RHS- I think he may have gotten a little overrated in all the trade talks over the last year, but he is still an extremely good prospect. Solid fastball and swing-and-miss curve should rack up ks, but he will need to improve his change to be a front of the rotation starter (lefties posted a 924 OPS against him in 09). I think he can, but I think it may take him a year+ to do so. Grade A-

8. Matt Moore, 20.9, LHS- Unbelievable K/9 rates the last two years, and he gets some ground balls too. If he can improve his command he could become a number 1 starter. Grade B+

9. Wade Davis, 24.7, RHS- Davis has good stuff, and no doubt projects as a major league starter, but I think he has been overrated due to his impressive major league debut. But a close look at his AAA peripherals doesn't suggest a #2 starter- only a 2.34 K/BB ratio and .74 GO/AO ratio for a guy repeating the league. I think he is a 3rd starter long-term, but I would caution those who expect him to replicate his exceptional debut in 2010. Grade B+

10. Jake Arrieta, 24.1, RHS- I might be higher on Arrieta than most, but I believe in the stuff. He reminds me a lot of Kevin Millwood- big fastball, plus slider, a serviceable change, and durable starters frame- and I think his career could look very similar to Millwood's. Grade B+

11. Josh Bell, 23.5, 3B- Huge year for Bell in 2009. He answered questions about his ability to play 3rd long-term, cut his strikeout rate, and turned his raw power into game power. The real question with Bell is whether he will have to give up switch-hitting. Even if he doesn't make big strides from the right side I think he profiles as a very productive third baseman. Grade B+

12. Zach Britton, 22.4, LHS- He's underrated nationally. Gets ground ball after ground ball, and improved his strikout numbers in 2009. If he can improve his fastball command and polish his change he could be a front of the rotation starter. I don't think his command will ever be good enough to reach his ceiling, but I think he should have a long career as a third starter. Grade B+

13. Tim Beckham, 20.2, SS- It would be unfair to say that Beckham has been a disappointment, but he certainly has not set the world on fire. He hit 33 doubles in 09 and scouts like his bat speed and swing, so I am confident that power will come. The concerning thing about Beckham are reports that he may have to move off of short, especially considering he was a relatively safe bet to remain there coming out of the draft. I think reports of his deteriorating athleticism are overblown, and while he may never win any gold gloves he should be a productive bat first shortstop. Grade B+

14. Zach Stewart, 23.6, RHP- If I was convinced that Stewart was a starter I would grade him a touch higher, but I think he is better suited for the bullpen. When he started his strikeout rate was pretty low. Now, with his command and sink I think he could be a starter (most likely a 4). But I think he is better suited for the pen- fastball plays up, and he wouldn't need to worry about his change as much. Grade B

15. Brett Wallace, 23.7, 3B- General consensus has him graded higher, but I'm not a big fan. He is likely going to wind up at first, and while his bat is plus at third it seems fringe-average at first. He has risen through the minors quickly, but he hasn't shown the exceptional plate discipline many say he has. While he is still young, with his "bad" body I can't see him growing into more power. A safe pick to be a major leaguer, but not an impact guy for me. Grade B

16. Matt Hobgood, 19.8, RHS- He certainly didn't distinguish himself in his pro debut, but it isn't unusual for high school pitchers to experience a drop in velocity after a long high school season. I think the velocity will come back and he will turn some heads with his performance in 2010. The perception that Hobgood was a "signability" pick has caused him to be underrated IMO. He's athletic, and he has a bulldog mindset that is perfect for the AL East. I see him as a 2/3 when all is said and done. Grade B

17. Josh Reddick, 23.1, RF- He wasn't ready for the big leagues last year, but with his tool set it shouldn't be long before he is. He may not ever post big OBP numbers, but he is a plus defender in right with the power for the bat to profile there. Grade B

18. Reid Brignac, 24.3, SS- Because he has been on prospect radars for so long I think people forget how young he still is. He'll play all of 2010 at 24, and while I think his development would benefit significantly by starting at AAA, he'll likely be a utility guy at the big league level. Originally thought to be a bat first shortstop, he has improved his defense to the point that he is now regarded as one of the better defensive prospects in the game. Should provide enough power and defense to be a league average short stop. Grade B

19. Brandon Snyder, 23.5, 1B- It was a tale of three seasons for Snyder in 09. He dominated the Eastern League before struggling in the International League, and then he bounced back with a very strong performance in the AFL. The main question surrounding Snyder is whether he will have the power to profile as a major league first baseman. He hit 37 doubles last year, and I think he will begin to hit enough of those over the fence to be a productive first baseman. Grade B

20. Anthony Rizzo, 20.8, 1B- In my view one of the most underrated prospects in the game. He was diagnosed with lymphoma in 2008, but he came back in 2009 and put up huge numbers. I love the plate discipline, but like Snyder the question with Rizzo is whether he will develop homerun power. Considering his youth, his fight with cancer, and the gap power he has shown, I think he will have plenty of power down the road. Grade B

21. Travis D'Arnaud, 21.2, C- On the surface D'Arnaud's 2009 season was not that impressive, but his peripherals remained solid- he continued to walk and actually cut his K rate, but he was hurt by a 279 BABIP. He only hit 13 homeruns, but he led the Sally League in doubles with 38. He has good defensive tools, and his overall package suggests that he should be a very good cacher at the big league level. Grade B

22. Brandon Erbe, 22.4, RHP- Erbe suffered from some shoulder fatigue in 2009, but the injury is not expected to have any effect in 2010. Peripherals were not that strong, but a lot of that can be attributed to the injury. Scouts love his pure stuff, but there are concerns that he may profile better in the bullpen. I'm also concerned about his flyball tendancy, but I believe in the stuff. Grade B

23. Junichi Tazawa, 23.10, RHP- Tazawa wasn't ready for the big leagues in 2009, but his repertoire suggests that he should be a 4th starter long-term (although that doesn't get it done with the Sawx). I think Tazawa pretty much is what he is. He'll have to get by with command rather than blowing away big league hitters, and he'll be hurt by the longball, but he has the stuff to be a starter. Grade B

24. Austin Romine, 21.4, C- No standout tool or skill, but looks like a solid catcher. Impressive that he has risen to AA at 21. Grade B

25. Jose Iglesias, 20.3, SS- It will be interesting to see where the Sox choose to start Iglesias. The glove is major league ready, but there are serious questions with the bat. He's not a speed or power guy, so his offensive value will be almost completely tied to his average. Because he plays a premium position, even if he only hits in the 260 range he should still have serious big league value. He reminds me of Jack Wilson. Grade B

26. Alex Colome, 21.3, RHS- Seems to be the forgotten man behind the likes of Hellickson, Moore, and Davis, but Colome is a very good prospect in his own right. He has a huge fastball, and promising secondary stuff. He has a long way to go shore up his command, but he has a world of potential. Grade B

27. Lars Anderson, 22.6, 1B- Lars is one of the toughest players to grade. He actually cut his strikeout rate significantly in 2009, but the numbers were obviously way down. A lot has been made of various injuries being the culprit for his slump. I'm sure they had an effect, but if he was really that hurt he shouldn't have been playing, and what does it say about Anderson's ability to handle failure that he let his initial struggles snowball? Lars still has big time tools, and great plate discipline, so the ceiling is still high, but he has obviously lost a lot of his prior luster. Grade B- 

28. Derrick Gibson, 20.4, SS/2B- One of my favorite prospects in the game. What's not to like when a guy shows great plate discipline, athleticism, base-running savvy, and power potential? While he doesn't figure to stay at short, he should be able to play either second or center well. Grade B-

29. Slade Heathcott, 19.6, CF/RF-  A potential 5 tool difference maker, it's tough to say what the Yankees have until we have some pro data. Tough not to like the tools, but he is raw and there are injury/makeup concerns. Grade B-

30. Chad Jenkins, 22.3, RHS- Joe Blanton comparisons are thrown around for Jenkins a lot, and that seems to fit. He's got a durable frame, and a solid fastball but his secondary stuff is raw so he figures to need more development than the typical college first rounder. Could be a 3rd starter. Grade B-

31. Jake McGee, 23.8, LHP- Worked his way back from TJ nicely in 2009. I'm not sure how the Rays see him, but his power stuff and struggled with control scream bullpen arm to me. I think he could be a dominant late inning arm if that is the route they choose, and with a lot of starters in the system that seems to be the likely choice. B-

32. David Renfroe, SS/3B- A favorite of mine in the 2009 draft. He's a great athlete with the potential to be an impact player in the field and and at the plate. Grade B-

33. Stolmy Pimentel, 20.2, RHS- A lot of projection remaining in Pimentel's skinny frame. If he adds some velo as he fills out he could open some eyes in 2010. Already has a plus change, and solid command. He needs to firm up his breaking ball, but he has the makings of a solid mid-rotation starter. Flyball rates are a concern, but certainly a promising arm. Grade B-

34. Nick Barnese, 21.3, RHS- Missed the first two moths of the season with shoulder tendonitis, but he pitched well when he returned to action. Seems like he has the classic repertoire of a 3/4 starter- low 90s fastball with a average breaking ball and a promising change. Grade B-

35. Kyle Lobstein, 20.8, LHS- Great delivery and a lot of projection remaining in his frame suggest there might be more to come from Lobstein. His curve could be an out-pitch, and his change is making progress. Could be a 2/3 starter if he continues to develop, but he is a long way away. Grade B-

36. Ryan Kalish, 22.0, OF- I'm lower on him than the general consensus, but he strikes me as a lower division regular rather than a true 5. Saw him play in the AFL and I'm not at all convinced he can play center. I like the plate discipline and he showed more power in 2009, but he's not a classic corner outfield bat. I think he is the type of player who offers traditionally undervalued things such as good defense and OBP, but Im not sure he'll do enough to profile for a contending team. He's still young, but seems pretty much maxed out physically. Grade B-

37. Reymond Fuentes, 19.1, CF- He's raw but has a lot of talent. With his blazing speed he could be a future gold glove center fielder, and scouts think he will hit for power. Tough to tell exactly what the Red Sox have in him till we have more data to go on. Grade B-

38. Xavier Avery, 20.3, CF- One of the best athletes in the minors, before signing he was a 4 star running back recruit committed to Georgia. He is extremely raw and just learning the finer arts of the game, but the strides he has made are astounding considering his lack of baseball experience. Hasn't shown much power to date, but scouts think it's there. Grade B-

39. Alex Torres, 22.4, LHP- Of the three things a pitcher can control Torres does two very well- strike hitters out and keep the ball on the ground. Unfortunately, he has struggled with his control throughout his career. His troubles with control, coupled with his 5'10" 160 pound frame, make me think he profiles better in the pen. His plus sinker and two good breaking balls could make him a dynamite left-handed specialist. Grade B-

40. Luis Lebron, 25.1, RHR- One of the most underrated prospects in the game IMO. Lebron struggled with injuries early in his career, but he seems healthy now. His upper 90s heat and wipeout slider allowed him to strikeout a ridiculous 14.2 an then 12.8 per 9 in Hi A and AA. Hitters were obviously uncomfortable hitting against Lebron as his BAA was second best in the minors amongst relievers! Control is the question with Lebron, but his stuff is undeniable. He reminds me of Jose Arrendondo. Grade B-

41. Gary Sanchez, 17.4, C- Sanchez received the third highest bonus ever given to a Domincan Amatuer when the Yankees singed him for $3 million. The Yankees like his athleticism and offensive potential, but it is tough to grade him with absolutely no pro data. Grade B-

42. Manny Banuelos, 19.1, LHS- At only 5'10" 155 many question whether Banuelos will be able to handle a starters workload long-term, but the results were hard to argue with in 2009. You have to love the success that has come at such a young age, but guys who rely so heavily on command and pitchability often struggle as they climb the latter. He doesn't profile as a left-handed specialist because his best pitch is his change, but he figures to make a meaningful contribution in the bigs. Whether that comes as starter or reliever remains to be seen, but because of his youth and success I can't go any lower than a B-. Grade B-

43. Zach McAllister, 22.4, RHS- I think McAllister is generally overrated. He's not a big strikeout or ground ball guy. The only thing he really does well is limiting the walks. I think people get sucked in by the 6'6" frame, but his stuff is just solid. I think he figures as a back of the rotation starter, rather than a mid rotation guy. Grade B-

44. Mychal Givens, 19.11, SS- Obviously no pro data to go on, but I love to scouting reports on Givens. Hit 97 off the mound, so he obviously has the arm to go with plus range and solid hands at short. At the plate he is more raw, but he has bat speed and a patient approach. Big time sleeper IMO. Grade B-

45. Kam Mickolio, 25.11, RHR- Unique prospect in terms of size, delivery, and stuff. As anyone who has seen Mickolio pitch will tell you, hitters are not comfortable in the box against him (especially righties). Could be a set-up guy provided he is healthy in 2010. One concern is that after getting a good amount of ground balls in 2008 he was an extreme flyball pitcher in 2009. Grade B-

46. Mark Melancon, 25.0, RHR- Love the minor league numbers- struck guys out, showed good control, and got ground balls. But he really struggled in his big league debut. I think many have overreacted to that. He may not be a closer, but he should be a productive bullpen arm. Borderline B-. Grade C+

47. Michael Bowden, 23.7, RHS- I might be a little harsh on Bowden (anyone out there who wants to convince me go ahead), but I don't see him as more than a middle reliever or 5th starter. His peripherals were pretty bad in AAA- 1.87 K/BB and a .55 GO/AO ratio. Those kind of numbers are not going to play at the big level, especially in the AL East. In fairness, he was a lot better in 2008, but I'm not sure I believe in the stuff. Grade C+

48.  Cameron Coffey, LHS- Recovering from Tommy John surgery, but the Orioles liked him enough to dole out a $990,000 bonus. Great 6'4" projectable frame, could be a monster if he comes back from the surgery strong. Grade C+

49. Madison Younginer, 19.5, RHP- Big time fastball, and a ton of potential, but a lot of questions. I imagine he will be used very cautiously in his pro debut. Grade C+

50. Stephen Fife, 23.6, RHS- He put up real solid numbers in 2009, largely under the radar. It will be interesting to see if he can maintain his K and BB rates in AA this year. I think he could find himself as an innings eating 4th starter for the right team (read NL). But in the AL he probably fits in more as a middle reliever. Grade C+

51. JR Murphy, 18.10, C- Murphy only began catching his senior year of high school, so it will be interesting to see whether or not he can stick behind the plate. He has the tools to, and the bat should certainly play there. Grade C+

Honorable Mentions (in no particular order):

Aaron Wirsch, LHP, Baltimore- Very little pro experience, but a ton of projection remaining in his frame and he already has a the makings of an exceptional curve

JP Arencibia, C, Toronto- Power is there, but questions about the length in his swing prevent him from cracking the top 50

Drake Britton, LHR, Boston- Reports out of instructional league had him hitting 97. If he can maintain that throughout the season he could be an impact reliever along the lines of Matt Thorton

Roman Mendez, RHS, Boston- Intriguing combination of stuff, polish, and projection

Matt Sweeney, 3B/1B/LF, Tampa- Huge raw power, but big time problems against lefties and questions over his position keep him out of the top 50. 

 

System Rankings:

1. Tampa Bay Rays- Tough not to pick the Rays when you consider the amount of potential impact talent they have, and the fact that the majority of it is close to major league ready. I love the potential of their young pitchers like Lobstein, Colome, Moore, Barnese, Cruz, and Rodriguez. While they failed to sign their 1st or 2nd pick in 2009, they still found some talent by going over-slot for Glaesmann, Bailey, Malm, and James. I don't love any of those four, but they all have a chance. 5 Star System

2. Boston Red Sox- Going just 51 players deep doesn't show the Sawx's incredible depth. As it was they had 15 players crack the top 51, but their system easily has 40 legitimate prospects. They've been smart in the draft, targeting high upside high school talent and paying to get it. The result is a stacked system. Most of the talent is in the low minors, but with the major league roster stacked their is no rush. Although they struggled the last year I wouldn't sleep on guys like Michael Almanzar and Oscar Tejada. This system doesn't have the close to the majors impact talent like the Rays and Orioles, but the depth pushes them in front of the Orioles. 5 Star System

3. Baltimore Orioles- I like the Orioles' system a lot. Like the Rays the Orioles have a lot of talent stockpiled at the upper levels of the system. Matusz, Bell, Arrieta, and Snyder should all see major league action in 2010, and I'm a huge fan of their 2009 draft. They went out and got a lot of high upside pitchers that could create the next wave of talent to Baltimore. While this system doesn't have the depth of the Sox's, it has more depth than it is given credit for. Jesse Beal, Pedro Florimon, Brandon Waring, and Caleb Joseph could all make significant contributions in the coming years. 4 Star System

4. Toronto Blue Jays- Can you imagine what this system would look like without the Halladay and Rolen trades? Wow. With Drabek, Stewart, Wallace, D'Arnaud, and Roenicke the system looks a lot better, but there is not much depth outside of the top 6. There are some big time upside guys in Jackson, Marisnick, and Gustavo Pierre, but they are all very raw. 3 Star System

5. New York Yankees- This system was looking pretty good before the Granderson and Vasquez trades gutted it, but it is tough to argue with either of those deals. Montero is a stud, but the system doesn't have much depth. Leon, Sanchez, and Jose Ramirez offer some high upside potential, but all three are very raw. The Yankees have spent on some over-slot guys the last couple years but the early returns have been minimal. I want to go 2 stars, but Montero and amount of potential impact talents prevents me from doing so. 3 Star System

Poll

Who has the best system in the AL East?

33%

Baltimore Orioles

58 votes

10%

Boston Red Sox

19 votes

55%

Tampa Bay Rays

97 votes

174 votes | Poll has closed