When the Browns took Colt McCoy in the third round a couple of years ago I, like many others, thought it wasn't a bad pickup. True the pick was risky, a flier, an experiment; but with the stable of retread and former backup QBs in the Browns locker room, there was always the possibility that the experiment might prove successful. Obviously, NFL teams saw a lot they didn't like in McCoy. Maybe his lack of elite arm strength, his short stature, or his tendency to leave the pocket early, but you had to be impressed by his college record as a starter all four years. Colt was a winner and a master of the college game. But as quarterback of the Cleveland Browns, Colt's record and statistics have been less than stellar. He has no division wins in 8 attempts, one of the lowest yards-per-attempt numbers in the NFL and only 14 touchdowns with 11 interceptions and 5 fumbles. It would appear that the experiment has fizzled.

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Bryan Burke over at NFL Stats created a chart of team performance over the last decade using yearly offensive and defensive EPA plotted against each other. This creates a chart in which being in the upper right is good and the lower left bad. So each team gets 10 plots on the chart, one per year. You'll never guess which team was consistently the best and which was the worst... well, maybe you will.

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Today at 4:01PM teams in the NFL will no longer have the option of improving their teams by addition or subtraction.  Being just a few miles from the Browns Berea facility I leaned my head out of the window and thought I could hear frantic dialing and phones ringing.  Are the Browns looking to make a last minute deal that will power them out of a sluggish start and into contention for the checkered flag?  Will they pick up yet more draft picks for next year?  A running back drafted in the 7th round of the 09 draft (Chris Ogbonnaya) is a start but what else could the Browns do to bolster their sagging offense and perfect a promising defense?

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After losing Sunday to the Giants, Eagles quarterback Michael Vick had a few words to say about the officiating.  Basically, Vick said that he was getting "no calls" more frequently than other quarterbacks.  Specifically he said:

"I was trying to protect myself," Vick said in his postgame news conference. "Still didn't get a flag and that's pretty much been the story for the last three weeks. I mean, obviously at some point something catastrophic is going to happen and I broke my hand."

"Looking at the replays, I'm on the ground every time, and I'd be lying if I said I wasn't frustrated," Vick said in his postgame news conference. "The refs have got to do their jobs. And I mentioned it to the refs in training camp when I talked to them. I'm on the ground constantly, all the time. Every time I throw the ball, I'm on the ground. And I don't know why I don't get the 15-yard flags like everybody else does."

I think this is a symptom of a much bigger problem in the NFL.  In an attempt to make the game less violent and prone to injure key players, the NFL is introducing more and more complicated rules that are subject to increasingly subjective judgements.  After the jump, some questions for discussion...

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The Browns are part of a division, the AFC North, that is particularly known for tough, stingy defense.  If you look at defensive statistics for the past decade or so, you will see AFC North teams consistently near the top.  But how do the Browns divisional opponents fair against teams that use West Coast offensive scheme?  Will the Browns benefit in divisional play merely by installing a new offense?  Let's look at the AFC North vs the West Coast offense over the past 3 years.

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For the past several years there has been a quarterback aggregate statistic known as QB Rating.  This was considered to be a way to compare overall performance of QBs but in fact it is just a passing statistic.  It combines completion percentage with total passing yards, touchdowns and interceptions to produce one number.  But is this a realistic computation of of what quarterbacks really do for a team in the NFL?

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Joe Thomas narrowly beat out Jake Long in the ESPN Left Tackle Power Rankings posted earlier this afternoon.  Not much of a surprise for Cleveland fans who know that Thomas is a beast and king of pancakes.  He received 5 1st-place votes from the panel of eight which begs the question: what were the other 3 thinking/smoking?  One of the writers mentioned that typically you wouldn't look at a team with Cleveland's record for a top ten in anything.  A good point but that just shows how dominant Thomas is at this position.  Grats to Joe.  We at DBN are glad you are here.

Love him or hate him, Mel Kiper has the "bully pulpit" when it comes to the NFL draft.  His grades for the 2011 draft are out and the Cleveland Browns are near the top of the class.  Hopefully that will translate to being at the top of the league in coming years as good picks translate into great players on the field.

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With the Browns final pick, a compensatory pick late in the 7th round, they selected Eric Hagg.  Hagg is a safety who was a regular feature of the Nebraska Corn Husker's defense for the past 3 years.  This 6-4, 204 lb safety recorded 130 tackles, 4 sacks, 3 forced fumbles and 6 interceptions in his college career.

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So the first day of the draft is in the record books.  After a startling performance by the Browns I think most fans are waking up today knowing that their Dawgs are thinking to the future and doing the only thing that a team with a lot of holes can do to get better--obtain lots of draft picks.  If the past is any indicator of the future, Cleveland just pulled off a coup and still landed a pretty good player in the first round.  So what will the team of Heckert and Holgren add to the squad in day two?

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In a surprise move the Cleveland Browns moved up 6 spots to pick DT Phil Taylor with their first pick in the draft.  The Browns had vacated their 6th pick earlier in the draft to move down to the Falcons pick 27.  To move up the Browns gave up their 3rd pick which is pick 70 overall.  Point wise this means the Browns gave up 240 points of value to gain 120 points.

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The Cleveland Browns traded their first pick at #6 to the Atlanta Falcons for their 27th pick, their 2nd and 4th picks this year and their 1st and 4th picks next year.  Using the Draft Value Board this works out as follows:

Cleveland's #6 pick = 1600 points

Atlanta's picks this year (27, 59 and 123) = 1039 points

Atlanta's picks next year assuming they pick in about the same spot = 729 points

So Cleveland gave up 1600 points for a total of 1768.  These points aren't perfect but it gives you an idea and there is the big assumption that the Falcons pick at the same spot.  Another act of Heckert genius?  It is obvious that the front office is thinking long-term.

As much as I would love to see a Browns jersey with the name Dareus, Peterson or Green on the back (Green being a bonus for those who still have a previous Green's jersey in their closet), I think that possibility is extremely unlikely.  The problem is that in order for one of these top tier players to fall to the 6th pick a very specific scenario must occur.  Hope is a wonderful thing but sometimes realism must win out over wishful thinking.

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Today on the ESPN podcast titled "First Draft", draft aficionados Mel Kiper and Todd McShay both said that they were hearing around the league that Arkansas Quarterback Ryan Mallett is slipping due to questions about his character.  Mel Kiper said, "I heard from people in the league that have told me don't be surprised if drops to the 4th round".  McShay totally backed him up on this saying "I've heard the same thing... and it has 100% to do with character." 
Given that the Browns front office has been pretty forthcoming about taking a quarterback somewhere in the draft, should the Browns take Mallett with their 4th pick?

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Mario Harvey - OLB

College: Marshall
Height: 5-11   Weight:257

Projection: 4th to 6th round

Mario Harvey has racked up some impressive statistics as a 3-year starter for the Thundering Herd.  During his time in college he amassed 419 tackles, 35 of these for a loss, and he has 20 sacks.  Known as "Thumper" by his teammates, this does not refer to the cute bunny in a Disney film but to his tendency to deliver punishing hits.

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Drake Nevis - DT

College: LSU
Height: 6-0   Weight: 294

Projection: 2nd to 4th round

The Browns are definitely in the market for defensive linemen.  The focus has been more on defensive ends but Ahtyba Rubin could use a counterpart in the center of the line.  Since there are so many defensive linemen in this draft, there should be a steal available in the later rounds.  Drake Nevis might slip to a point where the Browns would be foolish not to take him.

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The current Browns roster lists 12 linebackers.  Granted that some of these might play only in certain situations, on special teams, or in various other positions such as defensive end.  But 12 is a big number when current plans are to switch to a 4-3 featuring 3 linebackers on the field at a time.  That's a lot of backups.

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Joe Lefeged - SS

College: Rutgers
Height: 6-0   Weight:210

Projection: 4th to 6th round

Joe Lefeged (pronounced Lef-edge) is a good-sized, strong safety prospect who has distinguished himself in the Big East playing for Rutgers.  He is a play maker that has a nose for the ball and always seems to be where the action is on the field.  In 2010 he put himself on the map by causing two fumbles, blocking two punts and intercepting a pass all in the same game against FIU.  Lefeged is also a stand-out special teams player averaging 24.9 yards per kick return as a senior.

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The Plain Dealer has an interesting story on Cam Newton today which could definitely affect his projected draft position.  Why is this important to Browns fans?  Well, a lot of draft experts have Newton being picked in the top 5 picks which causes such top performers as A. J. Green and Patrick Peterson to fall to the Browns in many scenarios.

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Jordan Todman - RB

College: Connecticut
Height: 5-9   Weight:  203

Projection: 3rd to 5th round

With Peyton Hillis and Montario Hardesty lining up in the backfield next year, it is tough to make an argument that the Browns need a running back in this year's draft.  But both Hillis and Hardesty missed time due to injury and having a back like Todman in your pocket for emergencies wouldn't hurt.  He was a top performer in the 2011 combine coming in first in the broad jump and 3rd in the 40-yard sprint.  He was the featured back in Connecticut last year logging 1695 yards and 14 touchdowns.

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Some of our more "mature" readers might remember the comedy movie Airplane.  One scene in the film features a stewardess handing out reading material to the passengers.  An elderly passenger asks, "Do you have anything light?"  The stewardess replies, "How about this leaflet, famous Jewish sports legends?"  And then hands her a piece of paper the size of a post-it note (queue the laughter).  If the theme of the exchange had been more football-oriented, the stewardess might have handed the passenger an even smaller leaflet entitled "Successful short, weak-armed NFL quarterbacks." 
I don't think any sports pundit, prognosticator or draft expert has the Browns going anywhere near a quarterback with their first or, for that matter, any draft pick.  Yes, it is a pretty crazy idea but if you've read this far you may just have a nagging doubt in your mind about "the kid from Texas".  So do I.

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Jeff Maehl - WR

College: Oregon
Height: 6-1   Weight: 190

Projection: 5th to 7th round

Jeff Maehl (pronounced "mail") was the number one receiver in an Oregon offense that went undefeated in regular season play.  His senior year was a breakout year with 77 catches for 1076 yards and 12 touchdowns.  He is not a speedster down-field, does not have freakish size or extreme athleticism.  But Maehl is a key contributor from a winning program with tons of upside potential.

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Strategy in the NFL draft can be a tricky thing.  It is a synthesis of available players and team needs.  Every aspect of every part of the decision is a variable.  There may be several players that could be considered "best available".  As a player is considered numerous factors come into play.  Is he injury prone?  Is there any sign of character issues on or off the field?  Is the player smart enough to deal with increased complexity at the next level?  Is he an elite athlete or can he become one?  Also, a given team will typically have several needs to fill.  How do they prioritize these needs?  Is a speedy pass rusher more important than an impact defensive back or a freakishly talented wide receiver?  Let's take a look at why the Browns should select a defensive end with their first pick in the 2011 NFL draft.

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