It's been a while, and they're a little late, but I'm just now prepping my rankings for my AL-Auction draft coming up this Saturday.

Keep in mind if you already have drafted all your teams, you can still use these rankings based on how to value players for the rest of the year. Players with a + are indicated as favorable players, while players with a - are treated as the opposite. Multiple-position eligibility is based upon playing 20 games in the previous season.

1B

1. Miguel Cabrera 33-34 +
2. Mark Teixiera 31-32 +
3. Kendry Morales 25-26
4. Justin Morneau 23-24
5. Kevin Youkilis 20-21 (3B)
6. Billy Butler 18-19 +
7. Carlos Pena 16-17
8. Chris Davis 14-15
9. Michael Cuddyer 13-14 (OF)
10. Paul Konerko 13-14
11. Nick Swisher 7-8 (OF)
12. Russell Branyan 4-5 [DL] –
13. Casey Kotchman 3-4
14. Garrett Atkins 3-4 (3B)
15. Daric Barton 3-4
16. Lyle Overbay  4-5
17. Ty Wigginton 1 (3B, DH)
18. Hank Blalock 1 (DH) [MLs]
19. Ryan Garko 1

Notes: Why is Overbay ranked below the others despite the higher value? Depends upon if your league accounts for inter-league trading. Overbay figures as a likely trade commodity for another contending club, so that's something to keep in mind if you lose stats on guys that leap to the NL.

As for the position as a whole, I like Billy Butler and Chris Davis as a couple for 1B/CI. They both give you what you're looking for at the corner, but don't max out your budget. If you're spending more than that, go for one of the big two. They've got more dependability than the next tier, and they can anchor your offense in three (or four in 5x5's) categories.

If you even give a damn about this post, chances are you've made it to the finals of your fantasy football league.

In most cases, this means that you're probably getting at least your money back, or better. If not, my apologies. In what is my most competitive and important league, I netted the most total points and won my division, so now getting to the finals means I've already tripled my entry fee, and then some.

I've recommended many of the players that I drafted this year, and this was a very good year in terms of my predictions, somewhat unlike some of my calls in fantasy baseball the past year. More often than not, that indicates widespread success; I also made the playoffs in every other league I participated in. Hopefully if you've followed some of my tips, you're in a similar situation.

To those who weren't so fortunate, it stings. In two money leagues last year, I finished third in points in both, and didn't reach the playoffs in either. Sometimes a great team sputters out in the first week of the playoffs, and that's all the difference between the best and the bittersweet. Who would've thought my lineup of Schaub, Johnson, Rice, V. Jackson, Welker, Colston and Fred Davis would falter? Well, this is why fantasy football is a little more luck than baseball. We're playing even fewer games than the full NFL schedule to determine the playoffs, and sometimes NFL teams fall subject to the same fate.

You're welcome to post any last minute questions here, and hopefully Ian can also answer them. I'll try to get to any that I see, but I won't promise I'll be able to get on. I'll be traveling to Cincinnati to watch my Chiefs battle for victory (read: a better draft pick) against the Bengals, in what should be a very emotional game in their first trip back since the death of Chris Henry.

For a fantasy preview on that game, I like Jamaal Charles as a mid-high No. 2 back against a formidable Bengals run defense, and really no other Chiefs players. CB Leon Hall has been under the radar for Cincy, and should blanket Dwayne Bowe very well. Maybe Chris Chambers picks up the majority of the slack on the opposite side. On the Bengals, well, start 'em all. Carson Palmer, Cedric Benson and Chad OchoCinco are all solid plays, and I expect a touchdown from one of Andre Caldwell or Laveranues Coles. I'm wondering if the Bengals will give Larry Johnson a chance for retribution against the Chiefs, but perhaps that also plays a roll in firing up Kansas City if he gets in there. Unless I haven't said it before, I really don't like the guy, and I won't be shedding tears if he breaks a leg. Oops.

Good luck this week, and Happy Holidays to everyone.

TROR

Let me share a little situation that I faced tonight. I just want to emphasize something that, so far, paid off.

Looking around at a lot of "expert" rankings, I saw Mike Sims-Walker ranked fairly low. Well, he's been injured, and frankly, been pretty abysmal over the last few weeks. No doubt due to injury, but also to a weak offensive line of the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Staying a step ahead of my opponents, I picked up RB Chris Jennings of Cleveland with my waiver claim, and then RB Arian Foster of the Texans as soon as waivers passed. Keeping ahead of your opponents, lesson one. One of the readers left a comment in my Ask TROR post about looking forward to the next week (playoff seeded-bye or not) as far as matchups and depth go, which is excellent. This is the kind of strategy that consistently will put you a tier above other players.

In regards to the original point, I was left with a flex option of Jennings, Foster, or Sims-Walker, who I picked up off the free agent wire early in the season. Now, all signs by any advice you read were to stay away from MSW tonight. For the reasons I listed above, that the Colts weren't resting starters, and that they were ranked as the second best scoring defense in the NFL. OK, all valid points.

So, what about the reasons why he should be started? I've got a huge one: Does anyone remember Brandon Marshall last week? 21 catches for their star receiver, anyone? Anyone? I saw reports that the Colts should try and double-team Sims-Walker. What, you mean that Denver has some other second receiver that's ultra-dangerous on an island? Child, please. On top of that, the Colts secondary is banged up, and hasn't been spectacular by any means.

In the end, after even inserting Jennings once, I stuck with my guns. Sims-Walker scores and puts up 12+ points. Did I expect No. 1 receiver production, no, but he did what I expected, if not more for his slot.

How does this apply to anyone? Do your own research, look at the numbers, and rankings and projections don't mean jack at this point. You know what the established players are going to do as well as anyone, and for the guys you don't know about, well..no one else does much more.

For everyone who played against the Colts stars or MJD this weekend, good luck, and that goes for everyone else.

I know, I know, I've been more absent and missed than Troy Polamalu.

In my absence, I've been covering some of the top 100 prep basketball players in the country, getting a new laptop that I'm coming to you now on, and orchestrating my own fantasy success.

Now, If you're reading this article, chances are you've made it to your fantasy football playoffs. Congrats! If you followed some of my advice this season, there's a good possibility it benefited your teams the way it did mine. I made the playoffs in all leagues, and finished in first place in three out of four. Even better, I'm seeing dollar signs after I rode Ray Rice and Brandon Marshall, and won my division and scored the most points in my big bucks league. There's still money to be won and crap to be given to your buddies, family and co-workers in hopes you win your league, though.

Even with the best teams after 14 weeks, injuries can bog you down, and decisions and pickups become absolutely crucial. Do you stick with the big guns that got you there, or go with the hot hand?

With a Thursday and Saturday night game this week, injury situations and early decisions are crucial. I'll take those, flex decisions and anything else you might need help with. Bring on the questions, and good luck.

To everyone who stayed in, had a quiet night and watched some college basketball, good morning and Happy Thanksgiving. To everyone else who had a little too much to drink last night, your hangover isn't about to get any better: the Lions are on today.


Real quick, I want to breakdown today's performers. I'll do it in three categories:

Cherry Pie Plays (Big Performers/Must-Start):

• Green Bay's Offense: Sorry, but it's just easier this way. I feel like Rodgers, Grant, and Jennings are probably all worth counting on for 15+ points. Hell, even Mason Crosby is going to rack up some points today. With a healthy set of offensive tackles, Green Bay has rebounded from their abysmal lack (and by lack, I mean non-existent) of pass protection, and the offense is taking shots down the field to their deep threat in Jennings. This is going to sap away some value of the opposite receiver, sorry Driver owners. The veteran is probably still good for at least 60-70 yards, though, with the possibility for a score. I also like Jermichael Finley in this game, a lot. I picked him up this week after losing Owen Daniels several weeks ago, and I'm expecting 40-50 yards, with a great chance at a score.
• WR Calvin Johnson: He is a Transformer! From unlikely to play to the starting lineup, Megatron is expected to be in the starting lineup today. Green Bay's defense is ravaged with injuries, and big players always come to play on Thanksgiving. If you have another top 20 option, it's probably safer, but it's hard to ignore the T.U.P. (tremendous upside potential). Would it surprise you if he puts up 25 points? There's your answer.
• RB Brandon Jacobs and WR Steve Smith (NYG): Brandon Jacobs is going to look like a Neo-Pet, getting fed carries at every opportunity today. On top of that, Ahmad Bradshaw won't be around to scoop up any leftovers. Meanwhile, Steve Smith is always reliable, and you're not going to see Champ Bailey blanketing Smith tonight, either. In fact, if he gets matched up with Ty Law, he's probably going to see plenty of looks.

Fantasy Stuffing (Solid play, but not elite):

• RB Kevin Smith: He's real close to being in that next category above, but don't over-react to last week's production against Cleveland. Remember, it's the Browns. Do we really know how much of a loss to this run defense Aaron Kampman is? He wasn't making a great deal of impact being moved to OLB, but we'll see how they react. He gets targeted in the passing game, though, so even if the Lions fall behind, he can still rack up stats.
  
• RB Felix Jones: Why? It's a gut feeling, partly, but also because I believe that Dallas is going to try and hand him the rock more frequently. They feel like he's ready for more carries, and I don't think he'll disappoint. It's a real juicy matchup as a good flex player against the Raiders in Jerryworld.
  
• WR Brandon Marshall: Listen, if you can afford to sit Marshall this week, go for it. But I'm not saying he won't score two touchdowns, either. Another guy that you won't be surprised if he just goes off. But CB Aaron Ross is healthy for the Giants, and they've been missing that in a defense that's ranked second in the league in passing YPG allowed. For reference, my other options on the team with Marshall are Bernard Scott and Nate Burleson. I'm starting Burleson, if that helps at all. 

Turkeys (A no-thank you portion, Grandma):

• TE Brandon Pettigrew: He's looked good, but I think he's going to do a good deal of blocking this week against LB Clay Matthews. He'll be busy with that. Maybe next year we're talking about Pettigrew as a borderline No. 1 tight end. Not now though, and not this week.
• QB Kyle Orton: I think this one's fairly obvious, but if not, there's some good reasons. He's still bothered by the ankle, and it's still going to effect his play this week. Also, with Ross back, I've already mentioned the Giants. They're allowing about 200 yards through the air per week, so here's a modest prediction: 200 yards, a touchdown, and an INT, giving you 10 points. Hopefully you have another option out there. Try Vince Young.
  
• TE Jason Witten: This guy has been one of the major disappointments this year, and it's been hard to explain. FOX's Jay Glazer reports that Witten will play, but with a lack of production coupled with the injury, I'm even more skeptical.
  

I don't think anyone's really expecting any upsets today, although, anything can happen. If Stafford looks healthy, I can't say I'd be totally surprised if somehow the Lions pulled the upset. If the Cowboys were taking on the Raiders in Oakland, I wouldn't rule out the upset, but on Thanksgiving in Dallas, I don't think it's going to happen.

Happy Thanksgiving again to everyone. I'll be spending tomorrow and then Saturday at Ford Field covering some great players at their own level in the Michigan high school finals. Eat well and good luck this week.

Yahoo's Dan Wetzel just Tweeted: Dana White just told me: Lyoto Machida will defend UFC light heavyweight belt against Shogun Rua May 1 in Montreal.

I'm sure Dana wishes it was next month the way that his fighters have been dropping like Forrest against the Spider. Too bad we'll have to wait for this one for so long, but the hype that the UFC is going to build for this rematch is going to be ridiculous you have to know.

Here's a link to his Twitter.

About three weeks ago, I had a chance to converse with Alex Eisenberg, who's in charge of Baseball-Intellect, focusing scouting young prospects and analysis of player's mechanics. If you want to check out Part I of that interview you can do it right here. With that, I bring you Part II of that interview, which focuses on some prospects that you've probably read in Ray's AFL updates.

TROR: Give me one prospect from each league that you think aren't being talked about or rated highly enough.

Alex: Oh man...I can't limit it to just one.

Here's your disclaimer: The views in this column don't reflect the views of SBNation, Yahoo or Santa Claus. It's just the greatest advice since your best friend handed you a Trojan before you stumbled into the bedroom with that girl at the one party.

Back in high school when I, nor probably many of us knew the true meaning of money, or more precisely how to appropriately spend it, I dabbled in sports betting. And by dabbled I mean bet on Duke basketball. If that doesn't tell you how disillusioned I was, well, you're probably driving in the wrong lane.

One Kansas Jayhawks championship later, all is right with the world, and years later I'm a lot wiser. Not only that, but with the progression of the Internet and number-crunching, the Cold War of Sports Betting keeps escalating, with Death Star-like systems that Vegas employs to figure out favorites and spreads.

I'm not going to say I've been betting lately, but let's just say that I've been picking against the spreads that Vegas provides very, very favorably lately. Seeing as how a lot of fantasy sites even these days have have plays that involve them, and there are plenty of money pools involving spreads, I'm going to lend a helping hand and provide a few of my best picks for this weekend's games. I'm 3-for-3 so far this week (Fedor Emilianenko, the Thunder (+2) on Wednesday, and last night the Niners (-3), in case you were wondering. That said, here's your Royal Flush for the weekend:

Wisconsin -9 vs. Michigan: Tate Forcier was all the talk of the early season, getting the fab freshman treatment. I witnessed two of his comebacks in person at The Big House, and they were impressive. But starting with Michigan State, he struggled when he went on the road, and now his confidence has clearly taken a hit, and so has his body. He's knocked up, and the team is getting knocked around in every which way; poor Brandon Graham. Wisconsin runs the Wolverines right out of town.

Stanford +10.5 at USC: If you don't believe Stanford is for real, maybe you missed them take out a BSC-caliber team in Oregon last weekend. This is not one of the strongest USC teams in recent history. The fact is, S Taylor Mays has only shown flashes of what was thought to be 1st Round NFL pick-caliber talent, and Superfrosh QB Matt Barkley has only sported a 7-to-6 TD/INT ratio since the beginning of October. I'm not advising you go and take Stanford in this game, but playing it safe and giving the points seems like a good bet.

Pick of the Week: Dallas -3 at Green Bay: I've joked with some friends who started on the O-line in high school that they could probably get playing time on the Packers unit this year. This is the worst unit on what is otherwise a decent team this year. It's literally going to single-handedly keep the Packers from going anywhere this year. Fantasy fortunes have been reversed as the passing game has been unable to convert deep passes to fantasy stud WR Greg Jennings, and instead the intermediate game has featured veteran Donald Driver. Is there any coincidence after I drafted Driver last year and Jennings this year?! Here's a guide to the Packers remaining schedule: Do their opponents have a good pass rush and otherwise solid team? If so, check loss. If not, they'll probably win. I'm settting a personal +/- for DeMarcus Ware sacks at two. AccuScore (which simulates the games 10,000 times) has the Cowboys winning by an average of three points. Perfect.

Kansas City +2 at Oakland: Here's another disclaimer or two: I am a Chiefs fan, and they are bad. I don't think I'm telling you that Jon Gosselin isn't a role model-father here or anything you didn't already know. Here's something you might not know, though, thanks to our Chiefs blog over at Arrowhead Pride: "the Kansas City Chiefs, a team that has beaten the Raiders at the Coliseum each of the past six seasons. Also, the Raiders have lost their past six times after the bye week." Mind you, I even liked these odds before knowing this. Plus, isn't it fun to root against the Raiders? I know it's not just Chiefs fans.

UFC 105: Michael Bisping Even defeating Denis Kang: I don't know where they are now, but I do know that on the year I've been picking somewhere around 65% of UFC fights. Anyone who watches MMA knows that Bisping is a Brit that anyone in America probably loathes. He's got a mouth that just doesn't match his mat skills. Still, he's grounded out more impressive victories than the former-PRIDE veteran that hasn't really beaten anyone impressive since Akhiro Gono in 2006. It might not be pretty, but I think Bisping pulls it out.

If you're looking for anything else, I like the Saints (-14) against the Rams, and Arizona (+1) against Cal on Saturday. For shards and giggles, I mentioned my NFL picks last week. As an update, I was 9-of-13, or 69% in Week 9 picks. I missed on four favorites, but also picked Arizona to upset the Bears. With the exception of the Pats/Colts game, which I would rather not touch, the Chiefs are my sole upset pick this week. Good luck in your pools or other ventures in wagering.

Everyone can check out the article right here. It's certainly interesting. I guess if you want to project that, it probably puts the Pistons somewhere around, what, a No. 6/No. 7 in the East consistently?

I still adhere to the prospect that trading Hamilton and, depending on how the team performs and what kind of draft pick we carry, packaging it along could yield a middle-man that carries the team after Big Ben's time is the right move. In that case we probably need a bigger SG, albeit not of Hamilton's caliber (read: a defensive stopper ala Bowen) to play behind our three small guards, but I think this nucleus somehow needs to be altered. I think is now starting to look like it can actually be a No. 5 seed-type of team if the pieces fall right, but we're going to need Daye to develop into a starting SF, or draft great/move guys for the right pieces.

As far as the rest of the rankings, let me say that I've been a big fan of the way that the Blazers have been built, and even moreso how Thunder GM Sam Presti has gone about constructing that team. He's probably my second favorite GM in the league, putting together a team that already has some great young pieces and is looking at over 10 million in cap space come next summer. Both of this teams are reflected very well, as you might imagine.

Let me know what you guys think.

I know you've missed me. Don't worry, I've missed you all too.

While Ray and the rest of the crew here have kept everyone busy with plenty of baseball off-season talk, I've been equally busy. I joined the crew at Rivals.com, working for MichiganPreps.com, the state prep division of their network, and have been out in the frigid, ass-freezing cold (no, the press box wasn't heated) covering playoff games.

I also polled you guys asking about some fantasy basketball coverage, and I plan on bringing some of that. I participated in a 10-team draft just a few days into the season. It's a league with fairly deep rosters, and has been around about 10 years; most people I know, and they're all comparable to the guys that always finish at the top of your fantasy leagues. It's ultra competitive, and I think it's a good benchmark to provide some advice. I'm going to do a little recap article of my draft soon, along with some advice for some adds and drops. A few of my top picks were Devin Harris and Pau Gasol, but thanks to some solid picks I'm still off to a winning start despite the injuries. Like fantasy baseball, it's a grind.

On the subject of what I wanted to really address: football. You've probably noticed that the Fantasy Filmroom has been absent. Similar to guys like Jeremy Green over at ESPN/Scouts Inc. and Christopher Harris at ESPN fantasy (amongst several other of the top leaders), I don't cut corners; I was breaking down film of every NFL game of the week. Without ESPN-like resources, it's tough, and it's time-consuming. I also think that columns like it that go deeper than the typical box score is what can put you a cut above even the other great players in your respective leagues.

So busy covering other areas of the sports world, I realized that I had taken a little tumble in my absence from the column. I was listening to fewer podcasts, spending less time investigating lineup changes and statistics, and most importantly, I wasn't watching nearly as many games.

Now I'm not claiming my team's have gotten worse, although they're definitely losing more. But here's what alarmed me: I've been participating in a Pick 'Em competition for a big pot and slowly, my results have really degraded. The disturbing part? The correlation of picks for the weeks I was writing the Fantasy Filmroom articles (and of course, watching tons of games), and when I stopped.

Weeks 1-5 watching game film: 56/76 (74%)

Weeks 6-8 without watching game film: 24/40 (60%)

Don't get me wrong, I've still been pretty good on the year: I'm in the 86th percentile of picking at 68% on the year, but what a difference visual examination rather than listening to everyone else. Unfortunately, one reason we come to fantasy websites is not all of us have time to sit and study film, or even have access to it. However, if you do, I can't even begin to emphasize what a difference it makes. Not all sports, like baseball, have a sampling of games the size of Allen Iverson's ego where you can simply look at a box score or year-long statistics and see reliable trends. Don't always listen to talk radio or the national media, though, and this applies to your fantasy teams, too. If there's something you've seen yourself, and you have a gut feeling, go for it.

My upset special of the week is the Arizona Cardinals going into Chicago and beating the Bears. I think they needed a wake-up call last week, so hopefully losing fixed the problem. Jay Cutler has looked erratic often this year, and Matt Forte has struggled to find holes on the left side of his offensive line. I think a more focused Cardinals team shows up.

If you want a sneaky play at running back this week, I'm suggesting Justin Forsett of the Seahawks. Yeah, it's a real gem of a sleeper, but I considered picking up and playing him in a league where I have three RBs on their Bye (including Peterson), and also had Leon Washington go down recently. Forsett will now see more touches after Edgerrin James was released, and he and Julius Jones face Detroit. They might be the Lions, but they might as well be Tin Men, because they could use some heart. I think he'll make his touches count.

I've got more in store for you guys this week, stay tuned. Grab a beer and enjoy some NFL today.

PistonPowered is reporting that the release of Deron Washington may clear the way for multiple players to come back in a deal that would send out Rip Hamilton. RotoWorld picked up on this, and there's been some speculation on it here and there.

Would anyone really be all that surprised? The Pistons could use a young big man that they could develop, and it would free up Ben Gordon to start at SG, and more importantly I believe, allow Will Bynum to get a more prominent role.

I know within the past few days there has been debate on whether he has officially cut Kansas from his last or not, or whether he cut the list down to two schools from five.

Any word on this? For anyone unaware, Payne is a 6'10" center from Ohio that's ranked No. 20 in the Class of 2010. There were some Michigan State fans in my neck of the woods highly interested as well.

My ties make it taboo to acquire news from certain other Kansas websites that might have the scoop, but alas I'm not slapping anyone on the wrist who provides a scoop.

Also, I know that Harrison Barnes and Josh Selby, who are among the very elite in the class (particularly Barnes who has TUP in scout circles), were in attendance for Late Night. Barnes is probably a stretch, but he would definitely be a John Wall-level player without the baggage.

Bryan/TROR

Although this is my first baseball-related article on Fake Teams, here's proof I haven't been drinking Heinekens and watching the NFL all week.

First, I'd like to take a quick pat on the back and make this my first announcement that beginning shortly, I'm also going to be joining another staff in cahoots with Yahoo shortly over at Rivals.com. I'll be working as an intern and partly taking some basketball reins for Michigan Preps, the Michigan division of the network. Anyone who reads the college blogs over here, I look forward to sharing whatever knowledge I acquire over there and make sure everyone's getting some love.

No one can be watching everything at once, which is why we're here; we want a collective set of great eyes to tell us what's going on, particularly in the fantasy community. In trying to answer some of the most pressing fantasy baseball-related questions regarding the 2009 MLB season, I brought in a really good set of eyes. Enter Alex Eisenberg, the man in charge of Baseball-Intellect.com. Alex scouts the guys (mostly prospects) that we eventually bid up in our auction drafts, and breaks them down in a technical aspect. While he also diagnoses guys in the Show, I asked him to sit down and take a deep look into why some guys produced the way they did. Part II of this interview, which focuses more on some prospects and their outlook for next year, will be coming shortly. Enjoy.

TROR: B.J. Upton was someone who Tampa Bay counted on a great deal to lead off originally and then struggled even as he was moved down to the bottom of the order. The shoulder injury was the original diagnosis for his struggle, but what do you think plagued him this year?

Alex: I can't put my finger on why Upton struggled so much.  I remember seeing pitches Upton used to drive out of the park in 2007, die at the warning track this year.  I've looked at his swing and there are some changes to the action of his front leg, but I'm not sure how much of an effect it would have on his power output.  That might be an article for the future, but right now it's a bit of a mystery to me. I'll say this: His swing isn't that power-oriented and his 2007 season was largely a flukish sort of year for him.  However, his natural progression should have counteracted a return to the norm in his numbers, but that hasn't happened.

TROR: On the subject of the Rays, David Price struggled when he was called up this year, but settled down and posted respectable numbers, if not what we expected necessarily from him. Do you think the ceiling for him has lowered?

Alex: Price's upside hasn't changed for me.  He improved as the year progressed...his command still needs work as does his change-up, but his peripherals were strong for the most part across the board.  So he's still a potential No. 1 starter though he's more likely to be a No. 2 simply because of the sheer difficulty in becoming a true No. 1 guy...but the potential is there.

(More after The Jump)

Continue reading this post »

On the dawn of what could be one of the most intriguing games of the season, wanted to bring some basketball news. I'm going to be starting an internship shortly with Michigan Preps, a division of Rivals.com and getting heavily into recruiting, so hopefully I can give some more efficient updates to all the Jayhawk fans. I had to create a new account on there, but I joined Jayhawk Slant over eight years ago and everyone knows what a preeminent source that is with Shay over there.

Anyway, I wanted to give a quick update as I didn't see anything else on Brandon Knight. I don't think he's got the ceiling of John Wall; he's certainly not the elite top player in comparison to some of these past few classes, but regardless.

It's looking now like Knight has cut Duke off his list of top choices, and narrowed it down to Connecticut, Kansas and Kentucky. I was trying to get a scoop, but it looks like either way he's planning on setting a visit this week. Same goes for No. 4 overall prospect G Josh Selby.

I firmly believe this is really shaping up to be Coach Self's next defining recruiting class, so it's something to watch. I'll try and deliver some updates as I see them.

Bryan/TROR

See that guy above? He's real good. And not enough people have been talking about him.

I have a lot of friends who follow sports closely. They follow pro sports, they follow college sports. They follow high school sports, and recruiting. I find that they're pretty knowledgeable. They like Kevin Durant, but not enough.I don't think they're the only ones, either.

Everyone needs to L-O-V-E Durant. Durant, how I do love thee. Let me count thy ways:

• He's a third-year player now. NBA players typically make the biggest jumps in their second or third years in the league.
  
• Aside from blocks, he contributes in pretty much every category. And he shoots a pretty good FT clip at 86.7% in his first two years.
• His overall stats don't tell the overall story from last year. After the coaching change and before his ankle injury, in 43 games Durant averaged: 27.7 points, 7.5 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.4 steals, .9 blocks, 1.6 threes, and 7.9 free throw attempts on 49.3% FG, 43.8% 3P, and 86.4% FT shooting (credit RotoEvil.com). Those are insane averages considering his scoring. How good is that? If LeBron James doesn't shoot as well as he did at the line last year, Durant could put up comparable or better averages in pretty much every category than King James.
• As opposed to a Danny Granger, Durant is going to play on what I believe can be a playoff team. Outside of my Detroit Pistons, this is my favorite team to watch. Just a lot of fun, and great players. They're getting even better, and if James Harden delivers right away, I think they make the playoffs. I'd rather take a risk on him than a similar guy on a lesser team that might get shut down if he's nicked up.

Basically, if you improve on a year like that, you're really good. I wouldn't be afraid to take him No. 2 behind Chris Paul, but I would definitely take him above even Kobe Bryant.

Anyway, I was once a pretty darn good fantasy basketball player, and I feel like I'd like to reclaim that spot, so I plan on getting back into it this year after a year or so hiatus. My question is, how many other people would like some coverage or advice? I posted a poll, so you tell me. I've seen some FanPosts, so that's what sparked it partly.

As for now, I'll take any lineup decisions or add/drops before Sunday's games. I have a yearly Halloween party to attend Saturday, so I'll be out and about, but if you get in questions, be patient and I assure they will be answered before 1 p.m.

Hey guys,

I'm one of the editors over at Fake Teams the fantasy blog, and I actually wanted some of your advice.

I haven't had a chance to watch the Bengals game from this week, and although I've watched a majority of your gametape, I haven't watched all of them. I'm interested on your opinions of who will be targeted or catching the most balls this week, or for the rest of the way out this season. After Chad, of course.

With Brandon Marshall, Mike Sims-Walker and Nate Burleson all on bye-weeks, I'm taking a chance on Andre Caldwell myself this week. More importantly, I want more opinions on whether to recommend him to readers or not.

He was targeted by Carson nine times this week and as you probably know pulled in six of those balls for catches. Chicago's defense ranks just average (18th) in the league compared to their run defense (6th).

Thanks, and good luck for the rest of the season. Planning on traveling to Cincinnati to see my Chiefs play, which I anticipate could be a real important one for you guys. I'll probably root for you.

And this week, the award goes to Best Supporting Fantasy Players, the wide receivers. Big days for some struggling and emerging receivers were exactly what the doctor ordered. Meanwhile, one game was ugly and other teams' hopes were falling faster than Kanye West's approval rating.

Still, with few significant injuries or breakouts, this isn't the week to use your waiver wire priority. Without further ado, let's get looking some of the games  from last week and examine things closer.

Cleveland 6, Buffalo 3  

• Things are really, really bad for both of these teams. Where do you start? Well, it's never a good day when your team has nearly as many penalties as your quarterback has completions. Buffalo committed 13 penalties for a loss of 75 yards, a number of them in crucial situations.
• Next, I would be remiss if I didn't mention how gruesome both quarterbacks were in this game. Derrick Anderson didn't help his own cause by going 2-for-17 with 23 yards (including a zero passer rating in the second half). It was the lowest completion percentage by a quarterback in a win since the merger, according to ESPN's stats dept. Meanwhile, Robert Royal has quickly adopted Braylon's title of King Dropsies. I've seen this guy have balls thrown right at his kisser a few times that hit the ground this year.
• On the other hand, Trent Edwards has become a little too much the polar opposite of J.P. Losman. As conservative (not in a good way) as he was, his mechanics were worse. The blame is shared, though; part of it is on Edwards, the other on a drastically inexperienced offensive line, which blocked OK, but was responsible for a majority of the penalties. Again, inexperience.
• As pitiful as Cleveland's offense was, give some credit to the Bills defense. They've actually managed to defend against the pass pretty well all year, and if S Donte Whitner can stay healthy it gives them another player who can stuff the run. We'll see if they can stifle rookie Mark Sanchez this week, but I want to see what they do cohesively when healthy before I say anything more.
  

Pittsburgh 28, Detroit 20  

• Put it this way: Detroit is lucky that the Redskins were so predictable and ripe for the taking or their streak of mediocrity would likely still be in tact. Football starts with the offensive and defensive line, and you can make a case for the Lions having the worst unit for each in the league. The sun is setting on Jeff Backus and Dominic Raiola on the offensive side of the ball, and the jury is still out on last year's first round pick Gosder Cherilus.
• In much deeper leagues, Mike Wallace is proving to be valuable as the No. 3 receiver in Pittsburgh, clearly overtaking Limas Sweed at this point. Wallace isn't a top option in the passing game, but the Steelers inability to consistently run the ball and bring the same level of defensive performance they have in recent memory to the table. Until they do, Ben Roethlisberger will continue to rack up numbers through the air, and Wallace will get four or five targets a game.
• Speaking of Wallace, I think I'd want to own him over either Dennis Northcutt or Bryant Johnson. Ignore the fact that they had 105 yards and a score between the two of them. The reality is when Calvin Johnson is healthy he's going to see nearly half of Matthew Stafford or Daunte Culpepper's targets, and as Brandon Pettigrew (six targets this week) becomes more integrated into the offense he and Kevin Smith will become the secondary options in the offense. If you're relying on these guys, something probably went wrong in your draft and you might want a better lifeboat.
• The focus this year for defenses has been to shut down Santonio Holmes, and while I admit I wasn't high on Hines Ward prior to the season, I'm not taking anything away from his very productive start. Ward continued his ways by pulling in all seven of his targets for catches against the lowly Lions, good for 85 yards and a score. I'm willing to admit he finishes the year worth justifying anyone who picked him as a No. 2 receiver.

Continue reading this post »

It's 5:45 a.m., and I haven't slept. Brady, or Garrard, Garrard, or Brady.

In a little over six hours, lineups will lock at 12:55 p.m. and The Brady Bunch won't include a Greg (he's on a bye-week), but it will be led by a Tom. Despite not allowing a passing touchdown and ranking second in the league in passing YPG allowed, I still think the hooded one will devise a gameplan that sees Brady get some things done through the air.

In the case that he doesn't, I'm creating a thread for owners to banter, hoot and holler about any and all things for this week's games and your fantasy teams. Frankly, this page needs more discussion, so it's up to everyone to get things ramped up. Everyone who voted for Garrard in my Ask the Royalty of Roto post earlier this week is invited to throw pies and/or ridicule me if I turn out to be wrong in this thread.

I'll try to participate for the better part of the afternoon until I see my Detroit Pistons host the Hawks in preseason action tonight, and don't forget if you need pre-game advice, scroll down for my lineup decisions post where you can get assistance on any decisions you may need it with.

Have at it, good luck in advance, and as fans in Ann Arbor would say, may the Forcier be with you.

Did anyone think just because I haven't posted a Fantasy Filmroom article again this week while battling a hell of a cold that I'd been resting on these fantasy laurels? Child please.

Amongst reading Fantasyland (a great read about AL Tout Wars) and spearheading my own teams to a quite excellent 13-2 overall record, I'm still consuming more football info than Cartman eats cheesy poofs. So for everyone out there that's in a crunch on who to plug and play in your fantasy lineups, post your comments in this article, and I'll try and get you a quick response with some well-educated research and fun facts attached.

If you want any testimonials, check last week's edition; pretty sure that Mike Sims-Walker hype I was advocating worked out alright. A quick grab-bag of thoughts on some matchups this week also for your internet reading pleasure:

• David Garrard looked like a great backup QB this year, and that's why I drafted him behind Tom Brady in my high stakes league. What I didn't figure was that Garrard would come out of the gates this red hot. He's the No. 8 quarterback right now, and while I don't plan on starting him over Brady, don't be afraid to throw him in there. He's finally got a legit target in Sims-Walker (and a somewhat-reliable one opposite side with Holt) and is looking spry with over 100 yards rushing as well. Going to Seattle this week looks juicy.
  
• When Matt Forte went on the block in one of my leagues prior to last week, I licked my chops like I was an end playing against the Packers offensive line. Looking at the schedule though, my enthusiasm wavered if I were to still trade for him. He faces a few cupcakes still (Cleveland and St. Louis), but has some otherwise tough ones, including at Baltimore and home against Minnesota during most fantasy playoffs. Most owners will miss his production against the Lions again in Week 17, also. Just saying.
• The offensive line needs to hold up in Green Bay, or Greg Jennings owners are going to continue to suffer. Jennings thrives on the big plays, and Aaron Rodgers isn't getting the chance to heave the ball downfield. Good thing for Rodgers, he has mobility, and he's had to use it: He's the only other QB aside from Garrard to rush for over 100 yards. The bye week came at a good time this week, and hopefully time will heal the situation in part.
• Not to keep tooting my horn, but in last week's article I listed off some great defensive options for last week. Among the not-so-usual suspects? The Niners, who were the top scorer in Week 4. Need anymore proof why you don't draft a defense early? Don't be that goon at your draft. I am fine with the strategy of pairing two borderline-No. 1 defenses. Draft your defenses like your sleepers; not too early, but with high upside. The Niners and the Broncos are both looking like the best surprises here, and I still think that owners of the Jets defense finish as big winners.
  

Enough talk, bring on your questions.

Alright, I've seen some other viewpoints I'm obviously not going to point out that are overly-critical and downright bitter towards Tigers management. That's not what I'm doing here.

What I want to do is attempt to disconnect for the most part from emotion, and look at not particularly how this collapsed happened directly, but how this team landed here, and where it's going.

Continue reading this post »

So being at a Jayhawk blog, I don't need to defend of explain any of this to anyone. But still, a lot of articles I've seen are really blowing this out of proportion. That being said, I want to forward my response from another location in regards to thoughts on the trivial impact of his first semester absence:

Every story needs an angle. This is a good one, sure; every pre-season needs one, every touted team its blemishes.

 

But how relevant is it? Hardly at all. If I thought it was, I'd be worried as a lifelong Kansas basketball fan.

Think about it. It's only the first semester that he's suspended for. I'm going to assume that the second semester starts somewhere around after after the first week of January, but someone in Lawrence would have to double-check that. 12 of the Jayhawks games reside in the 2009 calender year. How many are somewhat relevant? Four: At Memphis and UCLA, then home for Michigan and Cal. A rebuilding Memphis, and two teams I'm confident the Jayhawks will handle at Allen Fieldhouse.

Morningstar serves his hard time, and returns for the Big 12 schedule and tournament time when they'll need his depth most. Good angle, story played, case closed.

Haven't really had much insightful to contribute over here yet being busy with my own content, but I'll try and piece him some contributions more during basketball season. Any fantasy players are welcome to come over to Fake Teams, SBNation's fantasy division where I contribute. Love the work here at RCT, keep it up.

TROR

via images.cbssports.com

Hey everyone. I came down with a Isiah Thomas as a GM-bad cold and have felt extremely under the weather, thus no Fantasy Filmroom this week. I was able to watch about half the games this week, so I may throw that together as something still. I'm also working on a fantasy baseball wrap-up megacolumn, and of course managing my own teams as well. I have one fantasy baseball auction team that is literally two steals away from at least a tie for first place that I'm engineering toward the finish line.

Regardless, I thought I would try and be useful in some way. So that being the case, if anyone has any last minute pickup or lineup decisions that haven't been answered elsewhere, shoot them here. Whether you need a second opinion or just an opinion period I can help out with that.

Here's some quick opinions though:

• There are some great RB options this week to take advantage of if you or another team hasn't already scooped them up. Glen Coffee is obvious, and so is Tashard Choice. Total no-brainers there. There's other options though for deeper leagues or some teams desperate for a fill-in. Jerome Harrison is a great one as a very respectable flex play. The Bengals defense is much improved, but Ray Maualuga is hobbled and has been one of the strong points for that unit. If Derek Anderson can help turn around that offense in Cleveland, James Davis is out of the picture now and Jamal Lewis hasn't been that impressive. Harrison will test the interior line with his good inside running.
  
• Ladell Betts is another one to take a look at. Clinton Portis is banged up, and if he can't shake his plethora of injuries, this is an exquisite matchup to exploit. Tampa Bay has been a fantasy graveyard this year so far, and that includes their very overrated defense. No one expected them to be this bad though, and even Washington and their own banged up offensive line will generate yardage for Betts. He's not a bad low-No. 2/good flex-play this week.
  
• Nate Washington is still out on the free agency list of many leagues. Why? I personally have better depth at WR and haven't needed him for the most part (guys like Burleson and Sims-Walker), but you could definitely do worse than having the ex-Steeler. He's already got two touchdowns, and I see worse options on teams all over. He's at least good for depth on your bench right now, but now that he's healthy he could raise his stock even further.
  
• Here's the defenses I feel good about starting this week, in no particular order: New York (N)(at KC), San Fransisco (vs. STL), Chicago (vs. DET), Pittsburgh (vs. SD), Houston (vs. OAK), Washington (vs. TB), Minnesota (vs. GB), and Indy (vs. SEA). I'm just saying I think those defenses are probably a cut above this week. The 49ers defense is available in a lot of weeks and is probably the best option available in most leagues. I'm not confident in the Cincinnati or Baltimore defenses being elite this week, Cincinnati because I think Derek Anderson injects some life in the Browns. I'm only advocating that the Vikings are a good start because of Green Bay's problematic offensive line and thus should be counted on for some turnovers and sacks. This isn't the week to start the Jets defense, either, against the Saints. They'll still be a top-notch defense for the rest of the year, especially with LB Calvin Pace returning from his suspension next week.
• Now is also getting to be a good time to start throwing out trade offers on some buy-low guys. Tom Brady has to be the guy at QB. He's just outside the top 10 right now at his position. That's not going to last. He'll finish top five unless something unforeseen happens. Brandon Jacobs, Matt Forte and Steve Slaton all look like great buy-low candidates as well, and they're ranked outside of the top 20 at RB collectively; Forte and Slaton even lower. I only worry about Forte due to the offensive line, but his stability and number of touches insures that he's a good option, even if he doesn't finish in the top three like he was drafted. I still think he finishes as around a top 10 back. Wide receiver fluctuates so much week to week, but if anyone is still thinking Brandon Marshall is a bust this year, I want to talk to that guy. Maybe he's not a No. 1, but he's going to be close.
  

Seeing how I feel like I've come down with the swine flu, I'm back to taking it easy. Send your inquiries by way of comment and I'll get to them up until game time best I can.

TROR

Remember the good Braylon Edwards?

Not even the big man on campus at Michigan. It wasn't that long ago that No. 1 was a fantasy ace.But this morning I checked one of mine and probably a lot of other people's favorite fantasy websites, and even with the move to the D.A. they were still finding ways to sell Braylon short, and calling him a low-No. 2 for the rest of the year at WR.

This particularly publication had Edwards ranked No. 13 prior to the season; I personally had him at No. 15. Now let's be honest: Braylon's owners should be absolutely delighted as a bachelor at the Playboy Mansion that this switch was made. Let's take a look at a few statistics:

2009 (Through 3 games with Brady Quinn):10 rec., 139 yds., zero touchdowns.

2008 (In eight games with Anderson):26 rec., 457 yds., 3 touchdowns.

2008 (In eight games with Brady Quinn): 24 rec., 420 yds., zero touchdowns.

Seeing a trend here, anyone? Even simply double his numbers with Anderson last year and you have 900 yards and six touchdowns. That's somewhere around a low No. 2 or a great No. 3 wide receiver. Figure that he eliminates some of those drops, maybe it's 1,000 yds. with seven touchdowns. Did you honestly draft him expecting more? Yeah, the guy had upside, but I'm betting if you own him you'd happily take that right now.

This is definitely an upgrade, ladies and gentleman.

While on the subject of upside, is your fantasy season going the way of the job economy? I promise your fantasy team is much easier to pull out of the toilet bowl, and it's time to employ a few steps in case anyone's forgotten to help do this.

1. Offer trades. Offer lots of trades. Send messages. Keep your communication lines open. This goes for double if you know the people in your league, because it's that much easier. Who would've soured on Matt Forte this early in the year? Apparently one guy in my league after I started poking around. I'm working on a deal to buy low on a guy who might be nicked up, but has the Lions this week and a bye week after this to get healthy for cheap. You can do this too, I promise. 
2. Don't make the mistakes the guy aforementioned did. Don't be swapping LaDanian Tomlinson for Ray Rice, or even Darren Sproles. Unless you reached so far you felt something bite your hand in the first three rounds, I doubt you should be trading them, let alone dropping and effectively giving up on them. Hey, guys who drafted Glen Coffee. Did you drop him already? Sorry about that. It's turned out a lot better than James Davis, at least.
   
3. Here's a list: Glen Coffee, Mike Sims-Walker, Tashard Choice, Donnie Avery, and the San Fransisco defense. If you're weak at RB, WR, or need a defense and these guys aren't owned, stop waiting and get them. In 12-team leagues they all need to be owned.

4. On the subject of wide receivers, are your big guns coming up short? Well, you could read my Fantasy Filmroom column, or if you want a challenge, go look at targets, or try and pay closer attention to footage or replayed games. Maybe the quarterback just simply didn't look his way enough, and it wasn't his fault. Or maybe he was matching up against Darrelle Revis. Which Marques Colston is this week, by the way. For someone who's supposedly running certain routes, it's something to keep in mind.

That's a start. 0-3 is a tough hole to dig yourself out of, but 1-2 is nothing to panic about. It's not too late for a turnaround. Just ask Braylon.

Congratulations to every one out of ten or twelve owners who had Chris Johnson, as well as the rest of the winners of Week 2 fantasy matchups. Meanwhile, Frank Gore sizzled while the Pats fizzled, and some perceived top fantasy defenses got absolutely torched. First, a look at the injuries and their outlook:

• Matt Hasselback - Fractured rib, doubtful for Week 3. Coach Jim Mora is planning already to go with Seneca Wallace. You shouldn't, but you should look for other options.
• Donovan McNabb - Broken rib. If you picked up Kevin Kolb for insurance, plan on using him again this week against Kansas City. McNabb was still in pain heading into Sunday, and the Eagles have a week off after a favorable matchup this week, so expect him to rest again.
• Mike Bell - Grade I MCL Sprain, doubtful. Similar, but not as serious to teammate Pierre Thomas' injury, the timing of this really hurts Bell's long-term value. Now Thomas likely steps back into his roll if Bell misses a week or two. Trade Bell while his value is high if possible.
• Marion Barber - Quad strain, doubtful. It's looking like Barber misses this week, but I assume he'll return for the week after. Hopefully you have running back depth, as most owners didn't draft Barber with Felix Jones; Tashard Choice might be available and worth a weak flex-play against an equally weak Carolina run defense. Don't risk this one: Barber plays Monday night, so you won't be able to swap him out if you ride it down to the wire.
• Chad Clifton - Ankle, out Week 3. I mention this one only because of its impact on the Packers offense. Already forced to bring in extra blockers, the Packers shift their entire offensive line around with Clifton, and Aaron Rodgers was constantly under pressure from the Bengals front seven. Luckily this shouldn't be too much of a concern against St. Louis this week, but it's something to keep an eye on.

Now, onto the game tape (Note: I had problems with my video for the SEA/SF game, so an update on that will come in the next day or two):

Carolina 20, Atlanta 28  

• Matt Ryan is getting close to must-start material. If you want to dissect Ryan's rookie season, he struggled as many would have guessed against Cover 2 defenses. Well, Carolina runs the Cover 2, and he didn't seem to have much trouble with it. His progressions look better, and he's taking what the defenses give him. He may never be the most talented QB in the league, but he's going to be a winner if he plays like this. We'll see how matchup proof he is when he faces better defenses over the next month.
• Jake Delhomme wasn't too bad this week, and Steve Smith owners can exhale a bit. I'm not sure who had the fortitude to start him after last week, but he gave owners with 300+ yard bonuses a few extra points even, and his interception wasn't too critical of an error.
• You weren't reading anything I wrote if you took Michael Turner No. 1 overall, or even in the top three of your draft. He doesn't catch passes (well, Forte may not either) and he's not so dominate at the goal line as evidenced by taking multiple tries at the end zone against a not-so-intimidating Panthers front. Still, as long as he holds up without injuries he's looking pretty safe as a mid-first round pick.

New Orleans 48, Philadelphia 22 

• Before getting into anything else, a lot of eyes are going to be on the Eagles-Chiefs game this week because of Michael Vick. Looking at the Wildcat formations, or whatever Andy Reid wants to call them there, it's going to be very intriguing to see how they utilize Vick, DeSean Jackson and Kevin Kolb together. Kolb did a rough job in selling pitches, and corners didn't bite on plays the way they would if Vick was on the field. Chiefs coach Todd Haley said that they've been practicing for this, but if Jackson is healthy I like him to pile up yards in all sorts of ways this week.
• With defensive tackles like boulders, teams aren't going to have much success running it up the gut on the Eagles. That's why Sean Peyton used misdirection plays to free up holes for Mike Bell's successful gains. His play calls are some of the best in the NFL in terms of keeping the defense guessing continually.
• The verdict on Kolb is still out for me. Looking at his first half numbers, they're not all that dissimilar from Brees. But he misses wide open receivers and just shows general inexperience, which is to be expected. The Wildcat formations that keep the Chiefs guessing may really be the key to Philly's offense clicking this week.

Continue reading this post »

You want to know the most overrated content on fantasy websites?

Projections. For the most part, utterly useless.

We're talking about a computer system spitting out numbers here, and even if they're calculated, they're flawed for a reason that most casual fantasy players don't even realize. What's the difference between your typical No. 1 and No. 3 wide receivers? Well, sure, Steve Smith probably catches 20 or 30 more ypg than Donald Driver, but he's going to score a lot too if Jake Delhomme comes out of his coma. But what probabilities does RoboProjector use when forecasting scoring? I doubt it's analyzing matchups with opposing cornerbacks and changing philosophies, things that make the difference between the guy that the computer projects to score and the player it doesn't.

Use your own analysis, use ours, or use the rankings from reliable websites. What matters is catches, targets and matchups. Those are what truly forecast scoring, and ultimately, who falls in where as far as the best players from week to week.

• Every week we stare at the screen like cavemen trying to make lineup decisions for the most effective scoring, and then agonize over the choices all Sunday long. Being fortunate enough to have good options at my flex this week, here's a step-by-step process of choosing and ranking Mike Bell, Derrick Ward, Nate Burleson and Eddie Royal, all guys who I feel are serviceable No. 2 RBs or WRs this week. (Note that I may be eating crow as I actually write this seeing how Bell already has 40 total yards in the 1st Quarter.)
  

1. Derrick Ward - This is the guy sharing the most touches of any of these guys, so why choose him? Sure, Cadillac Williams looked real good last week. But money makes the world go round, and these things matter in football. The Bucs just gave him lots of Benjamins, and all for good reasons I've said before; he fits the zone-blocking system well, he can catch passes, etc. Fact is, all those things are still true, and he got several goal-line opportunities last week. Couple that with the fact that the Bills run defense is going to be hampered heavily by the loss of Paul Posluszny, who is a tackling machine. Eighty total yards with a good chance of scoring seems pretty good.
2. Nate Burleson - Almost any ranking system you find will have this guy at the bottom of the four. I'm not buying it. Burleson got 11 targets last week to Houshmandzadeh's nine. I'm not saying that's going to always be the case all the time, but I wrote in my Fantasy Filmroom column that Hasselback noted his improvement over the off-season. His problem has never been production, it's been staying healthy. Five or six catches for 75 yards and a score looks good against the Niners seems reasonable.
   
3. Mike Bell - This was a dicey situation for owners to approach this week. What was coming out of the Saints' mouths wasn't necessarily what seemed to be the likely scenario come Sunday. Then come kickoff time, the Saints activate Pierre Thomas. I feel sorry for Thomas owners who didn't look closer into this situation, because looking around, he's in some lineups due to that news, and was only activated for emergency duty more than likely. Bell is carrying the load and gets goal line carries. Sixty or seventy yards could be grinded out against the Philly defense, but chances of scoring are going to be tough. (Note: As I was finishing this, Bell scores. Insert crow in mouth.)
   
4. Eddie Royal - Is the Cincinnati defense suddenly the Steel Curtain, or did Kyle Orton look real rough out there in the Broncos miracle last week? I'm going more with the latter. Still, I think that improves against a forgiving Browns defense. Marshall is probably back up to speed, so Royal becomes a No. option again. If Orton rebounds this week and shows he can run the offense smoothly I feel better about Royal.

• Chris Johnson, meanwhile, is having what is going to be one of the best fantasy games of the year. 280 yards helped by three TDs. If you have him in leagues that award bonuses you probably are winning this week even if you're starting Michael Vick and Travis Henry (non-jail leagues). It's the third quarter in a close game and he's got 50 points? Wow. I ranked Johnson No. 5 overall behind LT, but ahead of S-Jax and Michael Turner. Maybe No. 4 overall wasn't so bad, and I'm not just talking this week; his metrics for his runs were excellent for last season. It's going to be fun watching him this year.
• Chad OchoCinco is definitely going to be making defenses "kiss the baby" this year. Anyone who watched Hard Knocks got the impression that Chad looked healthy and was serious about rebounding. No one questions this guy's heart, if anything. 1,200+ yards along with eight touchdowns looks like at least a good bet with a healthy Carson Palmer, who could also turn out to be a good steal.
• As Matt Stafford throws into the heart of the Vikings defense for another INT, credit the Jets coaching for playing into the strengths of Mark Sanchez, who's looked great so far today. He's made throws down the field when he takes chances, but they've played it smart. The Meadowlands is incredibly loud, and it's been giving the Patriots problems on the other side of the ball. It's like NCAA Football a few years ago where your controller shakes and your receivers look confused like they've just seen Lady Gaga at the VMAs. Tom Brady is really missing Wes Welker today, and the Jets are throwing great blitz packages. The timing of the Patriots offense is off, and Darrelle Revis has been all over Randy Moss today, who can't get any separation.

The Fantasy Filmroom is based on numerous observations of game tape, along with the six or seven full games of coverage breakdowns and whatnot. All that coupled with a plethora of notes I've compiled that you might have missed by just watching along, drinking a beer, or compulsively checking your fantasy team. Don't worry, I did that too. The whole point is for this to be a one-stop source of what you might not have found in the box score. For the future, try and look for this to come out around Wednesday regularly.

First, a few infirmary notes, including some notes courtesy of Will Carroll from BaseballProspectus.com, who is always great in getting on top of fantasy injuries.

• Hakeem Nicks – Mid-foot sprain, not a Lisfranc. 2-3 weeks minimum.
• Donovan McNabb – Broken rib on his touchdown run. Reportedly going to miss this week’s matchup against the Saints, so make other plans despite what McNabb says to the media this week.
• Jeff Faine – Torn triceps, out about six weeks. Will hurt the Tampa Bay running attack.
• Brian Urlacher – Dislocated wrist – Out for the year. This has been the big one with McNabb today. After he went out, Hunter Hillenmeyer replaced him, and not only did the Packers run more, they ran with more success as anyone could have guessed. The Bear’s defense looked great, but this is going to neutralize whatever jump you might have predicted I’m guessing.
• Marques Colston – Here’s a direct one from Carroll’s Twitter: "Colston looked terrible, according to observers. ‘No cuts, no stops, he can just go forward’." Ouch. Not much was made of, or reflected in any rankings, the fact that Colston underwent knee surgery for the second consecutive off-season. His numbers weren’t terrible yesterday, so if I can get someone like Roddy White or Anquan Boldin for him (both of who I ranked above Colston preseason), make that move.
• Antony Gonzalez – Grade II MCL sprain, out 2-6 weeks (at least). This is the one that should directly impact fantasy owners the most from first glance. There’s probably not a clear replacement to pick up for Gonzalez that will replace his production. I think Austin Collie and Hank Baskett both share the targets he would have received, but neither will be all too reliable.
• Pierre Thomas – Despite practicing, all signs point to him missing Week 2 against the Eagles. If I owned him, I would prep for the worst. Mike Bell looks like a No. 3 back for at least another week.

Now, onto some reads from the film room (Thursday's game not included):

Kansas City 24, Baltimore 38 

• Todd Heap came more out of nowhere than Kanye West at the VMA’s. The formerly reliable fantasy option caught five passes for 74 yards, including a nine-yard touchdown pass from Joe Flacco. Part of this was the heart of the Chiefs defense looking slow, allowing Heap to get constantly open in the middle of the field. If you waited on a tight end and are still lacking a reliable option, he’s not a bad bet going forward. Less blocking, more catching. Maybe he ends the year as starter-caliber.
• Some more reactions on the Chiefs defense, which allowed 500+ yards Sunday: Pressure was inconsistent, and DC Clancy Pendergast’s timing of calling blitzes were questionable; the team was getting beat on third down-blitzes on a number of occasions.
• No doubt the defense was terrible; mostly thanks to Chiefs corner Maurice Leggett (starting for an injured Brandon Flowers), who Flacco constantly targeted. But a closer look at the stats shows the Chiefs averaged only 5.9 YPP on offense, ranking in the lower third for the week. Couple that with 11 carries for a pathetic 20 yards by Larry Johnson, and that led to a lot of time on the field for the Ravens. They ran 85 plays on offense, more than any other team this week by 12.
• Ray Rice is still the No. 1 back on Baltimore, and his fantasy owners are going to get good value for his ADP this year. But Willie McGahee and Le’Ron McClain are going to have value. I think 1,000 yards looks like a good bet now, and I’m putting the over-under on touchdowns at five. By the way, the pass-to-rush ratio is going to even up next week. Flacco only threw as much as he did, and "opened the playbook up," because the Ravens were trailing.   

via cdn2.sbnation.com

 Philadelphia 38, Carolina 10

• I haven’t seen ALL of Jake Delhomme’s interceptions, but I did see three of them. The first one? Not his fault. It was a tipped pass off of his receiver. The next two? Into coverage, and an under-thrown deep ball to Steve Smith. Atlanta is salivating for Carolina in Week 2.

• Despite running the ball well, Carolina’s pass protection was pretty mediocre. The blame is divided, and even if A.J. Feeley starts, he’s going to get hit without better blocking. I ranked Steve Smith No. 7 in my WR rankings behind Jennings and Boldin, but Wayne and White (who I ranked below him) may end up out-performing him with inconsistent quarterback play. He’s still a No. 1 WR, but be weary, you know he can be hot and cold already.

 Minnesota 34, Cleveland 20  

• Percy Harvin will be a valuable fantasy wide receiver this year, period. He’s not going to be a red zone target, but clearly he’s part of the offense, and the coaches are finding ways to get him the ball. For a rookie he shows good awareness in finding holes in the zone and making catches. I’m not opposed to him being my No. 4 right now.

• On the subject of Minnesota wide receivers (besides Bernard Berrian, who I suggested you not play him this week, just saying), Sidney Rice is a guy to keep an eye on as a last roster spot in 12-team leagues, or take a waiver on in deeper leagues. Rice had several opportunities to score, and looks like a great end zone target for Brett Favre. 5-6 touchdowns this year wouldn’t surprise me. Look for matchups with smaller cornerbacks to exploit there.

• Quinn-Edwards wasn’t a connection that was established, and Brady didn’t try and make it happen all too often. When he did? Underthrows, overthrows, just not good throws, including an interception that was clearly the result of a mental error by Quinn. As good as Jamal Lewis looked running the ball to the strong left side of the line, Quinn looked rough. Several more games like this and D.A. is could be on the case.

Miami 7, Atlanta 19  

• Davone Bess is the only wide receiver on the Dolphins I’d keep anywhere near a lineup right now, and maybe only in PPR leagues. He’s seeing a ton of targets, and seems like a perfect fit for Pennington as long as he holds onto the job. Greg Camarillo only caught two balls for 20 yards, and 15 of them were on a ball that hit his leg and shouldn’t have been. Don’t forget, Bess had a ton of targets at the end of last year too; it’s not a fluke.

• Tony Gonzalez will not be the only one tight end this year to burn the Dolphins on routes. In fact, I won’t be surprised if Miami is among the leaders in touchdowns allowed to TEs. Safety Yeremiah Bell blew a tackle that led to Gonzalez heading down the sideline for a score. 

Detroit 27, New Orleans 45  

• What else can you draw from this game other than the Lions defense is porous at best? The defensive ends are not the problem; DeWayne White and Cliff Avril can rush the passer, but the defensive tackles drew no pressure, and Brees was able to step into the center of the pocket to make throws whenever he needed to.

• The targets to New Orleans receivers were spread out pretty evenly. Remember, Brees didn’t have a tight end near the talent of Jeremy Shockey last year healthy. When he’s out on the field, it gives Brees another guy to spread his passes out to. I’ve always been a Colston supporter, but if he’s having any trouble with the knee, he’s not a top 10 wide receiver like some owners might have expected.

• Don’t worry about Calvin Johnson. He had a touchdown called back at the goal-line, and was targeted significantly. He’s still in the Four Horsemen of receivers.

Jacksonville 12, Indianapolis 14  

• No Marvin Harrison? No problem for Reggie Wayne, and even with Anthony Gonzalez out, that won’t matter either. Wayne saw double coverage and still managed to escape the Jaguars’ defensive backs, including torching rookie CB Derek Cox for a score. The more important thing is that the Colts offensive line is healthy, giving Peyton Manning the time to get the ball downfield to Wayne.

• Provided he stays healthy, Joseph Addai is going to maintain his spot as the No. 1 fantasy back for the Colts. It took him some time, but Addai finally got into the end zone in the second quarter Sunday, and he’s going to get get better production with that line healthier. Addai was supposedly miffed by doubters in the off-season, and if he stays healthy he’ll at least hold onto the majority of value there.

• I’m absolutely sold on Maurice-Jones Drew still as the No. 2 running back this year, and no one else is up for debate. MJD is going to see better production against lesser defenses this year, bank on it.

Denver 12, Cincinnati 7

• Brandon Marshall owners shouldn’t panic about the lack of production against the Bengals. He still saw seven targets, and that’s three more than Eddie Royal, who didn’t exactly put up eye-popping numbers either. With some rust shaken off, he should fair better against Cleveland in Week 2.

Dallas 34, Tampa Bay 21  

• Who thought that Carnell Williams would be a name that would be appearing in the end zone so soon this season? With all the corny car jokes you can muster, Cadillac showed good acceleration and steered through the zone-blocking of the Bucs offensive line which actually fits newly acquired back Derrick Ward better. This is my early pick for surprise one-two running tandem of the year provided Williams stays healthy.

• Part of that was thanks to the line, which negated a strong Dallas pass rush led by DeMarcus Ware. The other part was thanks to Byron Leftwich, who looked pretty accurate and put good touch on his throws. In what would be the ultimate mix-up based on recent history, I’m not surprised if this offense ends up being more dynamic than the defense in Tampa Bay. A healthier Antonio Bryant in the upcoming weeks won’t hurt, either.

N.Y. Jets 24, Houston 7  

• No Shaun Ellis or Calvin Pace, and one of the most prolific offenses in the league were shutdown? It’s a testament to Rex Ryan’s new blitz-happy system, led by NT Kris Jenkins and ILB Bart Scott. The Texans begged Jenkings to come for Matt Schaub like another Jaws sequel with few double-teams. Schaub looked rattled near the end of the first quarter, and it was causing him to miss his receivers. The Jets defense this year is a legitimate No. 1 option, and another lesson why you can wait and get a solid defense at the end of drafts.

• Throw Mark Sanchez out of the equation of Jerricho Cotchery’s production this year. Cotchery will still get his targets, but it’s going to be with screens and short passes. That’s fine; Cotchery made Texan defenders miss, and the Jets will again be good at getting their yards after the catch. Sanchez, like his receivers, will be serviceable but not spectacular this year.

St. Louis 0, Seattle 28  

• John Carlson was the star here, no doubt. He split out at wide receiver and torched the coverage. But don’t lose sight of the fact that Nate Burleson looked real good. Hasselback targeted Burleson 11 times, and when his brother and analyst Tim asked his Matt about a surprise on the offense this year, he named Burleson. We’ll see how the targets spread out when Branch returns, but Burleson is a decent No. 4 receiver for now, and I like him as a flex play this week against the Niners.

• I’ve been fortunate enough to have a high enough pick to own the very talented Steven Jackson, but unfortunate that that I actually owned him. The poor guy finally got some help in the way of two offensive lineman drafted highly by the Rams, but this team is going to be playing from behind like last year. His value remains because he still catches passes, but aside from Peterson and MJD, we’re seeing the question marks first-round guys had arise in a variety of ways.

Washington 17, N.Y. Giants 23 

• Jason Campbell and the Redskins aren’t exactly going to scare anyone with their offense this year, but the Giants still showed why they should live up to their filling as the No. 1 fantasy defense this year. They’re going to be a terror for any players going against them as long as that unit stays healthy.
• On the other side of the ball, Steve Smith caught six of the eight passes that came his way, and was as expected the best of the bunch of the receivers there. Forget Domenik Hixon, though, and go for Mario Manningham if you’re looking for a second receiver there. Way more upside from the ex-Wolverine who caught the only Eli Manning touchdown pass.

 San Francisco 20, Arizona 16 

• Discipline was something that the Cardinals clearly lacked, and played a part in their demise and the Niners upset. They were penalized 12 times for a garden variety of reasons: Offensive holding, offensive pass interference, and a penalty on Adrian Wilson for a vicious hit he landed on a defenseless Vernon Davis.
• San Fransisco played physical defense, and still got pressure on Kurt Warner without too much blitzing, thanks to some poor offensive line play, particularly by Levi Brown. This was a big reason Tim Hightower racked up the receiving yards he did and not Anquan Boldin or Larry Fitzgerald. Coach Ken Whisenhunt said that anticipating Boldin to be out and then him playing caused some unexpected shifts in the offensive formations, and that the unit should take shape and be sharper this week against Jacksonville.
• Just how long until Beanie Wells makes an impact is going to behind on him doing the things that don’t impact fantasy owners. Aspects like selling his end of the play-action fake and better pass blocking are a big part of why Hightower is continuing to see as much playing time as he is. When he becomes more well-rounded at the other nuances of his game, he’ll become the most valuable back in the desert.

Chicago 15, Green Bay 21

• Something to keep in mind about Urlacher’s injury, courtesy of ESPN Stats: Urlacher has only missed 7 career games, and they all came in 2004. In those games that season, the Bears were 0-7, and gave up nearly 10 points more per game than when he was in the lineup.

• ESPN analyst Mark Schlereth made one of the best predictions this year in Matt Forte not living up to the hype of his draft status in foreseeing that his catches would go down drastically. I’m sure he was the last one surprised when Forte, who had a good portion of his value come last year via receiving yards, caught zero passes from Jay Cutler at Lambeau. Nearly 75 of his fantasy points came from his pass-catching ability last year, and if that’s reduced to 25 even, you’re looking at a slightly glorified Clinton Portis.

Buffalo 24, New England 25  

• If you’re relying on a Patriots running back this year, something in your draft went wrong, your league is very deep, or you’re playing the wrong guys. Laurence Maroney and Fred Taylor shared an even split of carries against the Bills, while Faulk was only productive catches passes from Tom Brady. I’m not sure what kind of scenario I would consider starting one of them in, but it won’t be next week and probably not the week after, either. If I have to own one of them, it’s still Maroney.

San Diego 24, Oakland 20

• I like Darren McFadden this year as much as his biggest supporters. I had him rated as my No. 19 back, not a preferable but acceptable No. 2 option at the position. But he’s going to need to get the touchdowns to fulfill that, and Run DMC didn’t receive any carries inside the 10 against the Chargers. Michael Bush got three on the other hand, and may be the goal-line back for the Raiders. I still like McFadden, but temper your enthusiasm for his potential.

• I was expecting to preach not to panic on Vincent Jackson struggling against the coverage of Nnamdi Asomugha, but even the shutdown cornerback admitted he was fooled by a great move on a fade to Jackson, who showed that he may be matchup proof this year. Jackson was my favorite sleeper at wide receiver this year, and although he’s going to face tough opposition like Champ Bailey and Brandon Flowers within the division, this is why you don’t sit your big guns.