
Bryan Everson
Jun 04, 2010 Oct 25, 2010 2 36
Bryan began his career as a journalist nearly a decade ago, earning acclaim for his work dating back to his days as a sports editor for his high school newspaper. An award-winning journalist originally from Kansas and now residing in suburban Detroit, MI., Bryan's work has been featured on fantasy websites as a regular columnist. He was an ditor/contributing fantasy writer for FakeTeams.com, and can be read as a recruiting analyst and editor for MichiganPreps.com, Rivals.com's Michigan High School Sports division.
website: MichiganPreps - Rivals.com's Michigan HS Home
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Fantasy Football: 12-Team Live Draft Results and Notes
I had the pleasure of doing two live drafts over the weekend with friends and other assorted people here in suburban Detroit. The second, which was a PPR league, I may break down in another post. For now I'm going to stick to this one.
I feel like the league was pretty accurate in terms of the typical make-up of a league, so it's going to yield some results that are helpful to keep track of. I had the 7th overall pick (and was fortunate to get the No. 1 in the PPR league), and if you'll remember from my post earlier this week, my first observation for 2010 was "five are nice, but seven will suffice." Well, Steven Jackson was the last of the seven top RBs that I felt should undoubtedly go at the top of the board.
Honestly, you can make a case for any of these select seven backs to perform like studs. And while each of them have their flaws, some more than others, they also have their silver linings. Can you name how many RBs had more rushing yards than S-Jax last year? You might be surprised to know that Chris Johnson was the only one. Who knows if Jackson will have the tools around him in the next year or two to become a fantasy game-changer again, but he's the kind of back who's probably going to put up 14-15 points a game on a consistent basis.
Here's a look at the draft results. As a note, my team is "Been Rapelisberger'd?" Uh huh.
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I made one crucial mistake; thinking the draft was going in the reverse order, I'd thought that Flacco might get snatched up where I took him in the 7th Round. I didn't realiez it, but all the teams between that and my 8th Round pick already had QBs, and Ahmad Bradshaw could have been mine, along with Flacco instead of Michael Bush. It might end up being a real stinger, as I like Bradshaw this year as at least a flex play in 12-team leagues.
Otherwise? I'm pleased. I'm high on Jamaal Charles, so when a top 10 back in my eyes (finished 2nd in the last half of 2009) slides to the 3rd Round, it's a real snag. I think it's a playoff team, and with Bradshaw, potentially would have been a championship-caliber team. I want to highlight what I thought were a few steals and reaches.
Steal
- Jamaal Charles - Again, an early 2nd Round pick in my eyes, so slipping to 31st overall was a robbery. Believe the hype.
- Pierre Thomas - Another high-level RB who slipped way too far, going in the middle of the 4th Round. He is what you thought he was: A No. 2 RB, but I think he gets more carries this year, and he averaged over 5 ypc for the second straight season. I like him to finish around top 15 at his position.
- Jonathan Stewart - Face it, he's not going to put up No. 1 RB numbers like last year unless Stewart gets hurt again. But at the worst, he's still going to produce like a No. 2, so you have to love the upside. I like him around No. 30 overall, so being the 46th player off the board is great value.
- Mike Sims-Walker - In the middle of Round 6, you're supposed to be drafting good TEs or No. 3 RBs, not No. 2 WRs. Yeah, Sims-Walker was de-activated for a game last year for some shady behavior, but where's the hate coming from? It's a shame Jacksonville doesn't have more weapons, because MSW faces his share of double teams. There's no reason to expect he doesn't flirt with 1,000 yards and 7 TDs.
- Zach Miller - 145th Overall. Are you serious? People are sleeping on Miller this year like nuts. He is the de facto TE sleeper this year. If you can nab him outside even the top 100, it's outrageous value.
Reach
- Cedric Benson - Look, this guy belongs closer to where Charles went, but instead he's a first rounder. They rode this guy into the ground last year, and surprise, he falls prey to injury and doesn't score in the second half of the season. Bernard Scott is a talented back as well, and I would say is a must-handcuff if you're getting Benson. I expect about 12 games out of him or so, unless they cut his carries down and share the load.
- Cadillac Williams - I can see people making an argument for someone who finished with about 1,000 total yards and 7 TDs last year. What I can't see? This guy staying healthy for long. Maybe Derrick Ward isn't the answer either, but I'll let someone gamble before at least the 10th Round. 70th overall is insane.
- T.J. Houshmandzadeh - You know what? I took Housh with the first pick of the 9th Round in my other draft, whereas he went 20 picks earlier at 77th overall in this draft. You know the difference? Yep, that's one a PPR league, making Housh more of a flex play than what he really is, a low-end No. 3 WR in most formats.
- Nate Kaeding - Or any other kicker that goes before at least the second to last round. Apparently this is what drugs do to people. Learn a lesson, kids.
Five for '10: Observations from the War Room
First off, let me say I absolutely miss writing for FakeTeams. If someone said the road in my journalism career let to Matthew Berry sans about 30 pounds, I'd still sign up. Hope everyone's doing well. You know what's not going well? Preparing for my draft.
Honestly, there's no way to prepare for a draft without tossing a few dollars around. After doing fantasy football for what seems to be about 10 years now, I'm not sure there's any perfect way to go about it. Seriously, try doing a mock draft, or even a real draft on one of the major fantasy sites. First I thought I was placed in that crappy Hot Tub Time Machine movie when Tomlinson was selected 12th overall. Then, I was wondering if Rex Ryan was drunkenly throwing down donuts and drafting the Jets D, in the SECOND ROUND. Come on, seriously.
The best advice I can give is to purchase a great magazine (I personally chose to splurge for the first time and get an online draft guide), attempt to form some semblance of opinions from mock drafts/meaningless drafts, and read up on news, including here. I can tell you though, after doing some of this meaningless meandering into the world of the mindless, I've come up with some observations and opinions for this year's fantasy season.
1) Five are nice, seven will suffice - The number studies have proven that having the No. 1 overall pick, or even the top No. 2 or 3 pick yields better results. The players are bound to be more stable and proven, even if you do pull a Jersey Shore and fall on a grenade on occasion. But let's face it, the top five backs this year are more or less studs. MJD's line should be improved slightly bump up that YPC stat, and even despite injuries Gore is such a productive back. The next two each have their drawbacks, but injury specialists have affirmed Jackson teams to be recovered and healthy, and Turner should see a healthy dose of carries and be in line for a bounce-back season. Anytime you consider taking another position after the first group, that's where you draw the line. Unless I was just blown away with my top three picks, I want one of these guys.
2) Careful with the QB Waiting Game - I'm always weary of taking a QB in one of the first few rounds. Face it: There's sacrifice going on somewhere else in your starting lineup when you do it. According to ADP, Aaron Rodgers is going EIGHTH on average. Honestly, I can't find a reason not to draft him first among QBs unless it's Drew Brees, but I still think he doesn't belong in the 1st Round. I'd only first start considering one of the top guys at No. 12 overall.
You want to wait past the Sweet Six (Rivers not included)? One of my favorite strategies has been to pair two high-upside QBs, usually between Rounds 6 and 9 give or take, and try to shoot the moon. At the worst, you've got two guys who should perform like No. 1 guys. At best, you get a guy nearly as good as one of the Six, and you've got an elite RB/WR that they're lacking. My only complaint? If you've got a shallow bench, a lot of those candidates have the same bye week this year. Kevin Kolb, Joe Flacco and Jay Cutler, three of my favorite candidates for this year, take Week 8 off, and that's not including Matt Ryan and Eli Manning who also have a Week 8 bye. Honestly, Ben Roethlisberger looks like one of the best guys to pair (Week 5 bye) if you're going with this strategy. Otherwise, you've got a guy with risk and possibly a Matt Stafford backup situation.
3) Waiting on RBs is kind of hard, but can pay off this year - I'll be honest, I'm a traditionalist - I'd love to have two No. 1-type RBs as my first two overall picks - but times have changed. I've seemed to go RB/QB/WR the last few years with success when picking early the last few years, and maybe it's a good strategy again (Ken Daube, who I've enjoyed trading e-mails with and picking his brain, has great research on this), but there's never been so many hidden gems after the early rounds. But it can be damn hard waiting and getting the best value.
For example, I like Jahvid Best a lot this year as a low-end RB2 if you're strong elsewhere. His ADP is currently at 41 right now, which if you were to take him there, would be R4, P5 (No. 8 overall). I'd much rather have Steve Smith (the Carolina kind) or Anquan Boldin as a low WR1/high WR2 in Round 3 than LeSean McCoy and slot in Best. And speaking of that..
4) The WR pool is finite - I know, I know - There always seems to be a few breakout receivers every year. I was part of the Mike Sims-Walker lovetrain last year, and keep in mind he missed two games and still finished as a borderline No. 2/No. 3. Miles Austin and Sidney Rice were on nobody's radar before the season, so these guys are going to pop up. But that doesn't keep me from wanting two secure receivers in my lineup, and the low-end No. 2 WRs this year seem to bare a lot of risk. I like Mike Wallace, Johnny Knox, and Wes Welker among the guys who can produce like No. 2 WRs if you're going to wait past the fifth round. Otherwise, grabbing two receivers in the first few rounds isn't terrible.
5) For the love of God, don't pick a kicker or defense until it's time - Assuming Darelle Revis doesn't hold out for a 10-year, billion-dollar deal, the Jets defense is going to be ridiculous. They love to blitz, they'll pick off passes, they stagnate offenses yardage-wise. But they don't need to be going in the 8th Round (currently somewhere around 90 in ADP). I have some leagues that weigh defense heavier, so they get hoarded and it makes sense to reach earlier, but you can still wait around. Again, like QB, I like pairing two higher-ranked defenses and playing match-ups or nailing the breakout (I had the Jets and the Niners last year, and even the Jets were early at 85th and the ninth defense selected in a heavy-D league). If I can get the Eagles this year, who I like a lot as potentially the top D and have patched some holes, they're going about 40 picks later.
As for kicker? Nothing but the last round. Come on now.
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