Recently anointed AL Player of the Week, Bengie Molina, self-proclaimed "slowest man in the world," recently hit for the cycle.  Incredible, yes... but just how incredible? 

We already know he's slow.

And here's Bengie getting his due respect from video game makers (thrown out on a grounder to right field).

But, the math:

 

Bengie Molina

Career PA's = 5002

Career Singles = 922;  Probability = 18.43%

Career Doubles = 212; Probability = 4.24%

Career Triples = 6; Probability = .12%

Career Homers = 144; Probability = 2.88%

There are 24 different ways you can sequence the 4 hits.

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So, what are the odds of Bengie Molina hitting for the cycle in a game in which he only gets 4 plate appearances?

24(.1843+.0424+.0012+.0288) = .0000065 = .00065%

That is roughly a 1 in 154,000 chance of occurring.  Statistically speaking, Bengie should have hit for a cycle at some point in his career.... as long as achieved 154 thousand plate appearances.

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But, wait, you say... Bengie hit a grand slam in his cycle...

Grand Slams in Bengie's career = 5; Probability = .10%

24(.1843 * .0424 * .0012 * .0010) = .00000023 = .000023% 

That's right, a 1 in 4,416,000 chance of happening. 

 

Michael Main doesn't have enough skill to compete against Bengie's luck.

I've heard many speak of the M's raising the price in order to trade with a divisional rival. I think this is completely backwards.

Lee is a FA after this season, and seemingly every report has made clear that he wants to test the FA market (AKA sign with the Yankees).

The M's are currently 13 games out. They are going to trade Cliff Lee. They have two options.

1. Trade to a divisional opponent--Angels or Rangers
2. Trade to someone outside the division

Both options undoubtedly return the M's some pretty fine prospects for the man with a 16.75 K:BB ratio.

Having conceded this season by trading Cliff Lee, why wouldn't the M's prefer to weaken the future of the Rangers or Angels and indifferently watch them make a playoff run this year at the expense of prospects that give the Rangers value in future seasons?

If there were any chance Lee were going to resign, I'd understand the hesitation to deal with divisional rivals. 

Otherwise, I think if the M's were to have equal offers from the Rangers and Red Sox, a smart GM like Z would trade with the Rangers.

Mark McGwire ended Orel Hershiser's career, apparently, because of his steroid use.

“You altered pitchers’ lives. You may have shortened pitchers careers because of the advantage you forced over them while juiced. Have you thought about what happened when they couldn’t get you out and lost the confidence of their managers and general managers? You even managed to alter the place some athletes have achieved in record books by making your steroid-fueled run to the season home run record.”

Dumb stat of the day then becomes: 

Fifty-one pitchers gave up a total of 57 homers to McGwire in what turned out to be their final major league seasons, according to STATS LLC, among them Bert Blyleven, Orel Hershiser, Dennis Martinez, Charlie Leibrandt and Donnie Moore.

That's right.  At age 43, in 1998, Dennis Martinez was forced to cut his career short because of the crucial home run he allowed to Mark McGwire on August 30, 1998, a blown save by Fergie Jenkins because of McGwire's 55th home run of the year.  Out of genorisity, the Braves allowed Martinez to finish the season before they forced him into retirement. 

I'm tired of retired players commenting on the steroid era and acting like they did it "the right way."

We all know what's up with Neftali:

16.1 IP, 5H, 1BB, 21K, 0.55 ERA... certified bad ass

Here's the problem:  The guy is too good.

 

When Neftali pitches in a game, the follow-up Rangers pitchers are inferior.  Period.

Rangers' pitchers who come into the game after Neftali is done dominating:

11.1 IP, 9ER, 5K, 7BB, 17H or 7.30 ERA,   4.05 K/9,   5.68 BB/9,   2.16 WHIP

 

Broken down to our normally dominate bullpen-ers:

• O'Day:  The aberration:    4IP,   2.25 ERA,      2.25 K/9,    4.5 BB/9,    1.00 WHIP
• Grilli:  Infiniti everything 
• C.J.:       1 IP (3 appearances), 36.00 ERA,    9.00 K/9,    9.00 BB/9,   54.00 WHIP
• Franky:                            3.2 IP,   5.625 ERA,    8.43 K/9,    2.81 BB/9,   1.875 WHIP

My attempted explanation for this phenomena (as our bullpen has dominated this year in games when Feliz hasn't pitched and games not in early April):

Neftali : Swinging with a donut :: Rest of the bullpen : Swinging without the donut

1. Batters see the ball better with a new perspective on Franky's, "easy-to-hit" 95 mph fastball
2. Batters have a renewed sense of confidence, "Oh thank God, now I only have to face Franky and C.J."
3. Franky and C.J. develop an inferiority-complex and don't pitch with the same confidence as usual, another analogy, if I may:      ......     Franky after watching Feliz pitch  ::  Me next to Ron Jeremy at the urinal

I think O'Day has bested this by not being a fastball pitcher.   . This post isn't entirely serious, but I think there is something to be said for having your best pitcher also be your closer (even if it is in 2 inning stints).  I realize there is the confidence/experience arguments against him closing games, but I think the Rangers are in the rare position to go to a closer by committee formula, with Feliz pitching the 8/9 in close games sometimes, and Franky pitching the 9th in others.  To be clear, I'm entirely worried about Franky in the closer situation, however, nothing is wrong with trying to make the team better.

Poll

Ranger's closer situation should be:

25%

Franky is the man

92 votes

24%

Feliz all day every day

86 votes

18%

Feliz and Franky split the duties

64 votes

4%

C.J. takes over again, despite not having any other lefties in the bullpen

16 votes

27%

Hank F Blalock

96 votes

354 votes | Poll has closed

 

to enter the league:  Yahoo Fantasy Baseball

Choose join a private league, ID# is 98163 and the password is "rangers"

 

 

Draft time:   Sun Mar 8 8:45pm CDT

Max Teams:  20

Stats: Avg, HR, runs, RBIs, SBs, OPS and Wins, K's, Saves, ERA, WHIP, and Quality Starts

8 team playoff.

I'm open to suggestions on any chances.  I just thought it would be fun to have a Lonestar Fantasy League, everyone should join until we reach 20.

 

 

 

It's Easy:

1. Trade Chris Davis + Salty + Beavan  for Halladay (they need those positions, young players under contract, etc -- Who says no?  Tor. has to realize that they won't be contending in that division anytime soon)
   
2. Sign Sheets (duh)
   
3. Sign Adam Dunn to a 1/2 yr 5-7 mil.  2 first rounder's eventually.  Smoak fills the hole next year or the one after.
   
4. Trade Blalock for someone's batboy (if Hicks is really bitching about payroll) and trade Millwood for someone's ballgirl.

Advantages

• Doesn't mess up lineup bc Dunn&Davis are lefties and Dunn would annihilate in TBiA (especially with Rudy's help... he'd be a monster).
  
• $14 mil for Halladay + $10 M for Sheets + $6 for Dunn = + $30 M - $12 M (Millwood) - $6.5 (Blalock) = Only  $11.5 M added to current payroll.
• Rotation = Halladay, Sheets, Padilla, McCarthy, Feldman
• Huge influx of draft picks over the next few years if we lose Dunn/Sheets/Halladay
• 87-90 win team?... Maybe?

Bottom line.  I love Halladay and he can be turned into some valuable prospects if we aren't winning and are concerned about losing him.  We could also try to negotiate an extension pre-trade.  Davis is replaceable bc of Smoak and the value we can get for Dunn right now.

Dayan Viciedo

3bmen from Cuba.  It seems like we should be all over this guy with our current situation, but the Rangers haven't been mentioned whatsoever.  If he is just a few years away from the bigs, he could join the Rangers in time with the likes of Neftali, D-Ho, Elvis, etc. 

Why shouldn't Hicks throw big money at him in order to bring him here instead of signing a player like Crede or Blake who will probably command about the same, dollar-wise?  In the meantime, we can insert Metcalf, Vazquez, whoever and not make the playoffs anyway.