The seismic uncertainty of draft boards combined with the NBA draft lottery spawns a dynamic for some fans consisting of tension between a need to impose order on the chaos and a terminal lack of faith in the real decision-makers. This dynamic tends to manifest itself in such comments as 'I am most comfortable if my team is drafting at spot X.' As fans, as people I suppose, we want to have faith that the thing we care about is being taken care of, looked after by the right people. That if the state of the thing isn't optimal, measures are being taken to restore the state of excellence/competitiveness that we consider a natural right. Maybe it's an American thing. In any case, it's some conceptual facet of league parity.

But no matter the nuts and bolts of that tension, those fans face a difficult proposition in projecting this draft:

• Anthony Davis is the undisputed #1 pick in the draft, Perry Jones III's potential notwithstanding, and after that there is a lot of uncertainty.
• Harrison Barnes' stock has stabilized far short of projections coming out of high school. More realistic expectations will be to his benefit, much as they were for Roy Hibbert.
• Following the NCAA tournament, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist seemed a near lock for Top 2 status. He very well may be, although there are whispers of the Cavaliers being enchanted with Bradley Beal.
• Beal himself is mentioned everywhere from Top 2 to the mid-lottery.
• Some assume Thomas Robinson is out of the running by simple virtue of a comparatively stacked Wizards frontcourt unless both DC should fall in the lottery and TRob fall in the draft. With a 55% chance the Wiz draft Top 3 and Robinson being the top big man in the draft after Anthony Davis, if the preceding train of thought holds sway, drafting the Jayhawks forward becomes improbable.

Continue reading this post »

For now, the road to the Finals runs through Miami. In the post-handcheck era, perimeter play is the sine qua non of contending teams and the Wizards are sorely lacking. There's a need in just about every perimeter category you could name; there are more holes than can realistically be addressed via the draft and free agency. Don't get me wrong, I'm not suggesting the Wizards should identify their area of greatest need and draft to fill that need rather than draft the best available player.

If the Wiz have their choice of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Thomas Robinson and Bradley Beal they will choose the greatest talent because the playoffs depend so heavily on matchups, even in the hybrid zone. Teams grow around their players because talent rises to the top in the NBA like no other league, but let's say for a moment that MKG, TRob and BB's talent levels are equal for the sake of argument.

Kidd-Gilchrist would bring elite perimeter defense and finishing at the rim despite a somewhat shaky offensive game, perhaps shades of Andre Iguodala? Robinson would bring that physical flavor of play we love in DC, the defensive rebounding we rabidly slaver over, the high-energy athleticism we take for granted and another offensive game with asterisk. Beal would bring perimeter playmaking and three-point shooting to a team that just so happens to be in desperate need of it. Is it worth exploring which skillset is more valuable to a contender as opposed to pure talent level?

Draft players that fit the system, not the best player. Draft the best player for the system. Don't deviate or get seduced by agents, media demands, or by just stats or hype. Envision how this player will slide into your system.

The Ten Point Plan has a LOT of operational flexibility built into it. It's easy to reach for conclusions from the preceding point, but it's definitely worth pointing out that the system will heavily depend on the head coaching position, which makes accurate draft projection difficult. Or, since Ernie and Ted seem to have a vision of the team in place, maybe not. But for now, let's go ahead and artifically level the playing field and ask which of the three prospects we assume would be looked at the hardest have the most to offer a DC contender.

The 2012 NBA Draft Lottery takes place on May 30th. T minus 6 Days, and counting.

UPDATE: We have to correct some information here. The Wizards actually replaced their assistant athletic trainer in 2008-09, before drafting John Wall, in addition to adding another staff position. We regret the error.

----

The Washington Wizards medical department is a source of deep and ongoing unease for most fans. From a laissez faire approach to Gilbert Arenas' rehabilitation to letting John Wall play injured basically his entire rookie season and everything in between, there isn't an overabundance of confidence in the resident sawbones. So when I read Michael Lee writing about Rashard Lewis' rehab difficulties...well, you'll see:

"He was killing me that day," Mack said later. "He was hitting threes, going to the rim, dunking. I think he kind of rushed into it. Trying to embarrass me, he kind of got himself hurt."

Lewis left the court and realized that his knee problem was more serious than thought. "I didn’t know the significance of a bone bruise," Lewis said last month. "I went and Googled it on my phone and it said, it could be from weeks, to months, to a year for it to heal. Took synvisc shots. I took every possible step."

So, a player concerned with putting health first discovered he had committed a serious misstep by using the Google machine after the fact. You may not be aware of this, but the Wizards replaced their assistant athletic trainers at the beginning of the John Wall era, retaining head trainer Eric Waters. Waters received the NBA Athletic Trainer of the Year Award in 2009/10, after Aaron Nelson of the Phoenix Suns the year before. Yes, those Suns.

Continue reading this post »

A surprising number of teams look to be active in free agency next year and, as is oft lamented, there are a lot of restricted free agents. How does this relate to the draft lottery? Put simply, if the Wizards luck into the number one pick, fans may see an aggressive strategy from Ernie Grunfeld in DC.

Objection: Wasn't John Wall supposed to make DC a free agent destination? We've got Ernie Grunfeld telling us Nene Hilario trade was a free agent move and Anthony Davis is supposed to heal that paradigm?

A few things:

• John Wall is here, and for real, as opposed to a draft question mark.
• Nene is, too.
• The Gungate roster is all but excorciated.
• Those responsible for player development are getting results with their charges.
• Nene arrived and the young pieces this team was supposed to be built on gelled as a unit.

The Wiz have gone from fertilizer to glitter amidst the chicken feed to (maybe) gold in the pan and that should be enough to put the team in the discussion for any free agent not named Deron Williams or Dwight Howard without a rolling of eyes around the room, especially if the next 'game-changing talent' is on tap. So, if we take it on faith that the Wizards are in the mix from Eric Gordon on down, it's worth discussing how Ernie might approach the coming free agency.

Continue reading this post »

The Wizards went into the offseason on a high note on a six game winning streak, tanking be damned. Watching the John Wall/Nene Hilario pick and roll close out the Heat, watching Kevin Seraphin post-up while wearing a grin instead of a grimace, seeing Jan Vesely explode and finish in the lane, watching effective defense...I'm riding high, as well. And the team is entering a crucial offseason, but tempered offseason expectations may be called for.

Objection: Ted said, 'we plan to be GOOD.' Ipso facto: amensty Andray Blatche, buy out Rashard Lewis, sign [IMPACT FREE AGENT], draft [PERFECT FIT PICK] and it's the playoffs and up!

That's certainly possible. But 'we plan to be GOOD' doesn't promise anything, (certainly not a free agent signing). He may as well say, 'we expect to be BETTER.' And that's an extremely safe stance to take. The deadline trade (whether you believe it's Nene's presence or JaVale McGee's/Nick Young's absence) was the straw that stirred the drink. And Ted has faith in his staff and players such that the mix won't stagnate over the summer.

Continue reading this post »

While Rashard Lewis' contract is an unwieldy trade chip, finding a third party willing to shed an expiring deal or two might not be as difficult as you might think. If the cap savings aren't enough to tempt an extra partner, the Wizards have that sweet 2015 second rounder to induce coy General Managers.

Outside of John Wall, (presumably) Nene Hilario and (likely) Jan Vesely, any player on the roster is available for 'the right price'. Of course, as we've seen around the league in recent history with respect to Rodrigue Beaubois and J.J. Hickson, teams are prone to overvaluing their young talent. For now, we'll examine the obvious route, and see what teams might be able to offer some cap grease in a deal for Rashard Lewis.

Continue reading this post »

Remember when it seemed like half the players in the league were free agents? A lot of deals got handed out and by and large they were (comparatively) responsible ones. Then the lockout happened and the amnesty clauses got handed out and most of the especially virulent contracts have vanished before the season kicked off. And that's a big part of what makes it difficult to use Rashard Lewis' contract in trade.

The teams that needed massive cap breaks and/or flexibility were able to self-heal, to an extent. Thus, the relief his contract can offer would have to command several contracts in return, vastly complicating matters. Factor in the trend towards institutional tanking and draft picks are valued higher than ever. Also drop in the plan to be 'GOOD' and your standard BOYD scenario is probably out the window.

And that suggests Ernie Grunfeld and the Wizards will be looking for a player of value in return for Rashard Lewis. The Bobcats got Erick Dampier's partially guaranteed contract in return for Tyson Chandler's expiring deal. That was pre-amnesty. Guess that's why so many beat writers expect the Wiz to buy him out. But there are a few possibilities of interest.

Continue reading this post »

Remember when the 'Fire Flip Saunders' movement started getting serious traction? One of the holdouts would demand to know who would succeed Flip at which point a hapless, hopeful poster would venture 'Sam Cassell'? At which point the holdouts would chuckle and say, 'Well, maybe. But when Flip was with his sick mother, Randy Wittman was in charge. That's probably who it would be.' Everyone would get very grim and hang their e-heads as if the franchise's death knell had been struck. I certainly didn't anticipate the kind of encouraging results we've seen from Randy & Co. Of course, we can't ignore the obvious benefits of dumping JaVale McGee and Nick Young while adding Nene Hilario...but let's not spoil the moment. The real question is determining how much credit Randy gets, and what that might mean when it's time to hire a new head coach.

Continue reading this post »

The Wizards plan to be good next year, in case you hadn't heard. That's nice to know, after years of tortured team-building. And with the way this franchise has operated at times, is there another missive more appropriate?

Like many of you, I was watching the Knicks play the Heat in Game 1 and experienced a familiar sinking sensation. New York was keeping up with Miami on the scoreboard, but watching it felt like only a matter of time. LeBron James had Carmelo Anthony on lockdown and even the Knicks defense (funny, writing that with a straight face) appeared mesmerized by the lightning fast ball movement and terrifying athleticism the Heat displayed. And lightning is the right word, if you're familiar with how it travels. Jesus, I thought, next year that will be the Wizards.

It was a shocking bit of audacity, even for an admitted optimist. For a franchise looking up at every NBA team not located in Charlotte, it was crazy. It meant skipping right past the Cavaliers, Nets, and Pistons to tangle with the Bucks, 76ers and Knicks for the right to step up from the eighth circle of hell (the Bobcats are hanging out with Brutus and his ilk...Dante would be proud) and likely end up facing the Bulls or the Heat in 2013.

After all, if this team is just six wins better than its 10-34 pre-Nene Hilario self, the playoff hell teams are exactly who we're looking up at. Of course, all those teams we've passed in fantasy land will enjoy a premium draft pick as well, so where is this irrational burst of confidence coming from?

Continue reading this post »

Back when Flip Saunders was fired three months back, I had occasion to write:

What happens between now and the end of the coming free agency period is crucial to the future of the franchise. How Ted navigates the paradox of active ownership and effective organizational management will determine the fate of the current rebuild.

Effective organizational management calls for picking the right people for the job and getting out of their way. Agree or disagree that extending Ernie Grunfeld was the right call, his incumbency has real value and that means the personnel dominos are primed to fall in good order this offseason. The Wizards have momentum in just about every way, and that is a surprisingly easy achievement to overlook.

Jay Glassie had at least one thing right when he implicitly stated winning is an institutional effort. One thing I think we can all agree on perceiving at times in the franchise is a lack of accountability. As quickly as problems cropped up, passes were handed out, issues remained and it became hard to see if anyone within the organization or without had faith in an institutional standard. To be perfectly honest, that falls on everyone drawing a paycheck.

Problems get solved when one person takes responsibility for providing the solution. Playing the blame game provides reflexive satisfaction, but on a professional level, when you need everyone to buy in to a culture change, you can't afford to alienate anyone. Wonder why there hasn't been massive turnover at the Verizon Center? Ted got buy-in, established a standard for performance and those metrics are being met (fare thee well, Flip). What other logical conclusion is there to make?

So what are the institutional indicators that tell us how Ted is handling the paradox between active ownership and effective organizational management?

Continue reading this post »

There was a healthy debate in many fan circles about who would replace Ernie Grunfeld when his contract expired this year, ignoring the fact that his dismissal was anything but certain. In fact, when viewed through the criteria of the Ten Point Plan, Ernie was an ideal candidate for short-term retention. Let's call it the Nick Young plan.

When Nick hit restricted free agency, the Wizards quietly approached him with a multi-year deal whose terms remain undisclosed, though certainly less than $8-$9 million/year he was asking for. I find it very easy to believe that EG will receive market value for his services, whatever market value is, and I also find the duration easy to understand. I'll mangle a quick quote from Moneyball: 'It's hard to do what I do under the cloud of a one year contract; there's not a lot of faith there.' A one-year deal is an ugly amount of pressure and with a long term deal not yet warranted, Ernie got two years.

That's how I see the duration of the contract. As far as dissecting Ernie's credentials vis a vis the Ten Point Plan...I'll keep it brief to the point of missing a thing or two. As often as we've rehashed his history, it's hard to examine the value of his incumbency without reviewing some of the particulars. Hit the jump for the quick and dirty highlights. From there, it's on to the titular point.

Continue reading this post »

I don’t deny the Washington Wizards’ front-office strategic decision-making has yet to inspire brand loyalty. The record is bad; they are what it says they are. Ipso facto, I’m hardly endorsing the team's coaching vacancy as the Thunder-in-waiting. And yet, it isn’t as bad as a cactus juice-inspired hallucination when I suggest the D.C. coaching chair offers the opportunity to mold some promising clay.

An increasingly large percentage of fan frustration can be traced to unrealistic expectations. I’m not here to pass judgment on the rebuild or debate the particulars of revisionist history. Where do I get the gall to dismiss expectations (determined by past events/behaviors) without rebutting the history that established them? Because with a new coach (probable), a new GM (possible) and a new-as-it-gets-in-the-NBA roster (young and cap-healthy), history seems to be on its way out the door, along with the expectations it established.

Continue reading this post »

I'll admit that once upon a time, I was jealous of the Bucks. They had Scott Skiles heading up a young, cap-healthy, defense-first team built around Andrew Bogut that had just made a very nice showing in the playoffs that seemed a harbinger of things to come. Then of course, their GM went insane and re-upped John Salmons while bringing in Corey Maggette and Drew Gooden for big money and annihilated their identity.

It's nice to know that whoever the coach and GM are next year, some things just won't happen. Some things happened again; Wizards Nation watched closely for signs of developing identity that mostly resulted in the shedding of dead weight while Leonsis-era draft picks showed flashes of growth. Barring Andray Blatche's rebirth as a 4th/5th big man and Rashard Lewis' buyout/trade/what-have-you, the roster is all but turned over in the space of two seasons. Of course, that isn't going to get much love around the NBA...even Tom Ziller quipped, when recently considering the team's future prospects:

This team has one legit piece for the future. One.

So it's odd, that at this moment, in the afterglow of defeating the Derrick Rose-less, Luol Deng-less Bulls on the wings of Maurice Evans and Brian Cook's efforts to get the Wizards back in it, that I'm more optimistic than ever. The big reason? Promising clay.

Continue reading this post »

Eight games left to play. If there's one theme I'd like to see play out over the home stretch, it's 'Furious Discipline'. Randy Wittman commented about staying on top of Kevin Seraphin to keep him hungry, but it's a notion that should hold true for the Wizards as a unit. We know one face of this issue right now as 'the Wizards can't handle prosperity', so let's take a look at another.

My master was fond of saying that your worst day in class is your best day sparring and your worst day sparring is your best day on the street. Complicated physical concepts must be learned, applied, then forgotten and made reflex. Playing as a team at the NBA level involves all of those steps, and some would say that after you've gone through it and learned where you are supposed to be, you've got to go through it again and learn where everyone else is supposed to be. You can walk through the most complicated concepts over and over again in a controlled setting, but one runthrough in real time can make it feel like you're starting from square one.

When you nail a complicated sequence for the first time, for a whole quarter, what-have-you, it's exhilarating. There is a tremendous sense of catharsis with attendent adrenaline crash that can leave you disproportionately exhausted. Teaching my own students, everyone gets a moment when that happens while I offer a big smile and my congratulations. Then I inform them that this is the perfect time to do it again. And again, with increasing levels of difficulty. With two days of rest coming off a freshly minted winning streak, here's hoping Randy Wittman has been preaching something similar.

Continue reading this post »

As we spoke about last week, there are degrees of transparency. So when Ted says:

The Capital’s had several really bad years- we drafted well; we played the young players – and then we started to improve. We were bad tile [sic] we were good.

We are now a good team; and we make the playoffs year after year. And we are still considered a young team with a young core. All the players in their mid-twenties.

That is the deliverable for our fans. A rebuild that works; we are in season 2 of our ownership of the team; year two of a painful but necessary rebuild.

via Ted's Take

It's best not to react too strongly and start inarticulately sputtering about playoff hell. It's likewise reflexive to get concerned over some of the similarities between the two franchises. Both lucked into the number 1 draft pick with a franchise player on the table and built through the draft while moving established veterans off the roster. A youth movement is easier to achieve in the NFL or NHL (though by no means easy); the nature of guaranteed contracts in the NBA versus even the NHL, the differences in roster size and of course the unique physical attributes required to excel in pro basketball combine to make any raze and rebuild feel like a scorched earth policy. (Feel free to point out any attributes of rebuild difficulty in the NBA I've missed.)

Continue reading this post »

Historians take it upon themselves to afford us a clear narrative those the history tells us about rarely, if ever, perceive. It occurs to me we've reset the clock on the rebuild a few times, shaping and redressing our opinion while guessing at the narrative of history as it were, to grow an informed opinion on just how things are progressing. Age of the informed sports fan, right?

Complicating the whole process is the owner. A good plan is adaptable, and while transparency is a key tenet of the Ten Point Plan, there are degrees of transparency as any proponent of clean elections will tell you. Mix degrees of transparency with a plan constantly adapting to a fluid situation and it becomes extremely difficult to get to an objective consensus. The owner's perception shapes how the plan is executed on a who-knows-how-frequent basis and the goal posts move silently, Ted's Take notwithstanding. Thus, disagreeing with each other about the state of the rebuild in most, or even all, of its particulars is entirely inevitable, as the uncertainty we all chose to build into our projections can differ wildly. However, with all of the major personnel decisions approaching this offseason, it strikes me it might be time for a paradigm shift we can agree on.

Continue reading this post »

You are what your record says you are, eh? I despise pithy truisms; they lack the specificity, the context, essential to meaningful analysis. And yet the damn things always seem to pop up from most worthwhile angles (and of course tv personalities live by them). From a tanking perspective, the Wizards are sitting pretty at 12-40, good for second-worst in the NBA and an excellent shot at the number two pick (after David Stern flips the Hornets Anthony Davis). There's no reason to jeopordize the long term health of any key roster piece by playing hurt (or anything approaching hurt, really) and if we tank in the process, that's just gravy, isn't it?

The Nene trade has changed the face of this team, but I can't tell you exactly what that face looks like, not yet. With the flashes of improvement from Kevin Seraphin to the impassioned play of Trevor Booker to Nene Hilario getting comfortable in Jan Vesely's ear to Jordan Crawford suddenly feeling awful lonely when a knucklehead shot gets launched, it's impossible not to like this mix of players far better for the rebuild.

But how much has the team actually improved? The injuries that kept both Nene and Book out of Sunday's game in Toronto are benefiting someone besides the Michael Kidd-Gilchrist/Thomas Robinson/Bradley Beal enthusiasts...Ernie Grunfeld.

Continue reading this post »

My mind keeps going back to 'volume over precision' (draft many rookies) when it comes to the youngster approach detailed in the Ten Point Plan. It's a methodology that implicitly acknowledged the fallacy of the Thunder model before the blogosphere began taking explicit pains to point it out. The scientific method demands any model/theory be replicable by independent experimenters. While the skill of the experimenter/GMs attempting to execute their respective rebuilds differ wildly, hitting in the lottery over and over is both crucial and unlikely.

'Volume over precision' means everyone from Ted on down was aware of the likelihood of the circumstances leading to the deadline deal. Pruning happened, the level of the team improved and the developmental environment ripened in one shot. But what does the aftermath mean for Jordan Crawford?

Continue reading this post »

The storm of the trade deadline has passed and the dust has begun to settle. There's plenty of arguing going on as the fan community moves towards a general consensus on the trade and there's really only one question worth asking: what is the impact of the JaVale McGee/Nene Hilario trade on the Wizards rebuild?

On Bullets Forever, we've discussed our ideal scenarios time and again. We're able to accept the notion that 'no battle plan survives contact with the enemy' in our heads yet react to missteps, perceived and actual, like Marge groaning at Homer's shenanigans on The Simpsons. There is no perfect model to follow...or everyone would be following it. Institutional tanking isn't particularly novel, so aside from that, practically every team's rebuilding effort is effectively a case study. Hit the jump and we'll take a quick look at how the trade is poised to play out over the next few months, what that means for the rebuild and how it fits with the Ten Point Plan.

Continue reading this post »

The crucible approaches. No, not the postseason. Not for DC ... not yet. Just the grueling stretch of games the Wizards face this season. Nine days of rest. Five back-to-backs. Two back-to-back-to-backs. Sixteen games in twenty-five days. Part of me suspects maintaining our lottery standing won't be much of an issue.

I've had this stretch of games circled on my calender since the schedule was released. Here's a few considerations I was looking for back in early December:

Wanted: A Deep, Balanced And Settled Rotation.

Tall order, given the roster construction, but I love the job Randy Wittman has done distributing minutes. He's been aided by a rash of injuries to underperforming players but there's no doubt the Wizards have been a more effective team since the firing of Flip Saunders. The rotation feels as settled as possible in the wake of a franchise-altering trade. And while the Wiz aren't deep, there are clear backups at every position (the Wizards are just missing a starter or two). Randy will have to integrate Nene carefully but the rotation seems surprisingly (and livably) settled for the stretch run and none too soon.

Wanted: Team Identity.

Glimmers in the dark ... dependable post play from Trevor Booker this season and Kevin Seraphin in a small sample size have taken some of the heat off John Wall. Nene Hilario is a core piece going forward, like it or not, and identity is going to have to work itself out along the way. Improved defensive play has my eyebrow up, although sustaining that kind of furious effort over the scheduled murderor's row will be difficult if not impossible.

Continue reading this post »

Wizards fans have been resting in a comfortable ignominy for the last several seasons. We've been watching Ernie Grunfeld labor to clear away the detritus of past contracts while securing a promising nucleus to grow around John Wall. Wednesday's deadline blockbuster to acquire Nene hit me like being dragged from a cool, dark place recovering from a migraine/fever/hangover into a dance rave. Noise, confusion, pain...someone get me a drink.

More on the trade: The announcement | Changing Course | Links | Denver Stiffs Q&A.

Recalibrating Expectations, Or Not

As jefe immediately pointed out, this trade represents a massive acceleration in the Wizards approach to contending. While the team was in danger of falling behind the curve (if it hadn't already), this doesn't feel to me like a panic move, though it would be exceedingly easy to classify it as such. If the Wizards had let JaVale McGee and Nick Young walk in free agency and brought Nene in at 4 years/$52 million as a UFA, I probably would have said it fit with the attempt to acquire David West last summer. Of course, Nene never would have signed here. West didn't.

Maybe we can think of this as free agency the hard way for a cellar-dwelling team everyone loves to rag on. Sure, that contract is at least one year longer than I'd like ... but maybe the Wiz had to overpay to get their man. And if they did, they could do a lot worse. Adding a worthwhile free agent veteran has been part of the plan, as has getting rid of distractions. The timetable has radically advanced but I don't feel we've gone completely off the reservation.

Continue reading this post »

Is the NFL's (Roger Goodell's) decision to levy massive salary cap penalties against the Redskins and Cowboys a travesty? Absolutely. But that's only if the rules apply. Collusion? Well, that all depends on how you sell it to a regulating body. If the government refused to regulate the derivatives market as speculators bought multiple insurance policies on garbage "AAA" CDOs they didn't own, what are the chances the Attorney General investigates a professional sports incident that could be written off as sour grapes?

Sure. When there is no cap agreement in place and you tell teams not to spend more than a certain amount while taking pains not to document any of it (incriminating is your word of the day), a red flag is raised. That's what makes the redistribution of that cap space to other teams such a stroke of genius. That mollifies the NFLPA and economists as well...but believe it or not, that's probably just a smokescreen.

Continue reading this post »

Disgruntled superstars and their uncertain futures with the teams that drafted them have dominated headlines over the past few years like JaVale McGee dominated Wesley Matthews many moons ago. When considering the present and future state of the team we love, it is impossible to examine the tensions surrounding the team without casting a worrisome eye towards our franchise player. Facing the heat of uncertainty surrounding slow-developing assets and a poorly constructed roster while laboring under the cloud of an expiring contract, Ernie Grunfeld may very well be looking to hit a home run; but he isn't blinking yet.

Now, at this stage we're just starting to see the flop and like Mike said re: the Nick Young rumor, the opening bets are the gimmees. The pick-and-a-prospect phase was supposed to be well over at this point, but if a soon-to-be-UFA nets us Eric Bledsoe and a future 1st, who am I to complain? There are two ways to look at how EG has approached the trade deadline thus far.

Continue reading this post »

Andray Blatche is the only player the Wizards are actively shopping, with Ernie Grunfeld apparently leaving no stone unturned. There are two teams that have been reliably connected with Blatche, although characterizing that connection as interest would be...disingenuous. So here's looking at a couple categories:

How About Your Headache For My Headache?

Tyrus Thomas was acquired from the Bulls for Flip Murray, Acie Law and a future protected first that is increasingly unprotected and valuable the worse the 'cats play. He played well enough to snare a 5 year/$40 million deal and promptly reverted to the uninspired play that led the Bulls to dump him in the first place. Bismack Biyombo has apparently earned his starting spot at Thomas' expense. Charlotte held the advantage before Thomas lost his starting gig, but freshly demoted and with a contract marginally worse, one assumes the Wizards could exert significant control over the terms of the deal. Personally, I say no to change for change's sake and walk away.

Just Imagine The View From The Inside!

Historical fact: The Warriors gave a 6 year/$63 million deal to Andris Biedrins. Think they won't give $10 million plus to JaVale? That said, I don't think Biedrins (and his albatross of a contract) is in play quite yet:

Washington: Though they feel their locker room could take on a potential headache, the Warriors don't like Andray Blatche. They are more likely to go after JaVale McGee this offseason than trade for him now.

Marcus Thompson via us

If a team that just lost their center of the future on the wrong side of an RFA bidding war is willing to double down, you can probably bet they smell blood in the water. The Warriors have assets to offer where the Bobcats don't, but Golden State can stand pat and they probably will. Sounds to me like the Wiz explored a value for value trade, selling Dray as an asset and Biedrins' contract never came up. That, or the Warriors are calling Ernie's bluff. Still, I'd try to push Dray for Biedrins and see what kind of young players/picks can be leveraged. But in the end, Dray embracing his role as a big off the bench will improve his value and this is a deal that can wait until the offseason unless Golden State suffers a fit of insanity.

Continue reading this post »

Last week, I offered a relatively arbitrary look at which teams might be interested in JaVale McGee's services at the trade deadline. But in gauging the trade market, we face a problem bigger than the man himself. JaVale isn't going to change a contender's prospects in the playoffs, doesn't have the defensive instincts convention demands of a traditional center and therefore doesn't fit into either of the two most common tropes driving a trade deadline dealing involving promising big men.

Of course, JaVale is showing an improved offensive game, can discourage shots like a Star Destroyer discourages hope and might just be relatively affordable provided you're on the inside looking out of his RFA. Which rider do you have making an early move in this season's NBA Center carousel? Suppose the likely suspects get cabin fever in the same instant and decide to make an offer to EG and Co. To the Unlikely Machine!

Continue reading this post »

Greetings from the Wizards fanbase (which is amusing, as I live in Phoenix). Trade deadline's coming up fast, as everyone is aware. Prospective trading partners for the Wiz are few and far between, and as you might guess, the Warriors come up a fair bit of the time. It's not really based on anything more scientific than "They offered a boatload for DeAndre Jordan!!! They'll do it for JaVale McGee!!!" But let us dream.

We are aware of JaVale's shortcomings...most of us are in accord that it is time for a change. Mike Prada wrote quite an eloquent piece on the subject. Perhaps it convinces you to stay the hell away, maybe not. There's a lot more I could write on the subject, but I'm curious to hear what moves you think the FO might be willing to execute before the deadline to get their hands on the young Center they covet. Hopefully, I'm not offending any sensibilities with this suggestion

In any case, thanks for the hospitality of your site and happy posting.

This is the place for your trade deadline ideas from now to the 15th at 3:00 P.M. Bring up trade machine and get moving. Here's one-ish to get you started:

I've been keeping an eye on Ekpe Udoh (easier when you live in Phoenix, I guess) and I've liked the guy for a while. Any trade with the Warriors for JaVale McGee needs to bring back more than Udoh, though. My original thought was our lottery pick (top 3/5 protected) and JVM for Udoh and Stephen Curry. That said, I prefer jeffco1's notion, sending JVM and Chris Singleton, with Mike's caveat that we get back Ekpe Udoh instead of Dorell Wright as well as Klay Thompson. SF is still a major position of need...but what else is new?

Don't forget your trusty gadget: THE TRADE MACHINE!, set to open in a new window for your ALT-TAB'ing convenience

Trade 1: Wizards send Javale McGee and Chris Singleton to the Warriors for Ekpe Udoh and Klay Thompson

Trade 1a: Wizards send Javale McGee, Chris Singleton, Roger Mason Jr./Shelvin Mack and our top 3/5 protected pick for Ekpe Udoh and Stephen Curry (RMJ/SM thrown in to appease Trade Machine)

Rec it up to keep it up top and cry 'Havoc!' But keep it cordial!

Oh, and I poked my head in at Golden State of Mind to get their thoughts, swing by if you got a moment and play nice!

Continue reading this post »

Gauging JaVale McGee's trade market is a bit difficult. He's not ready to come in and contribute right away to playoff team based on what he's shown during his lapses. At the same time, he's a legit seven foot, athletic center who is showing incremental improvement over the past few seasons; the kind of player a down and out club could look to as the future of their front court. ...hmmm.

Wizards fans are all quietly terrified that should Ernie Grunfeld elect to trade Javale McGee, it will be Rasheed Wallace, Ben Wallace, Chris Webber, Richard Hamilton et al all over again. But rather than ask should the Wizards look to trade their young center (Mike blew that barrier into its constituent atoms), we'll focus for now on the fact that Ernie Grunfeld's contract is up and if he is going to make bricks without straw there's only one place to begin.

Take a deep breath.

Continue reading this post »