The last 3 days I've worked on a formula to project the standings of 2009 and now I have my results!

  - What have I done?

1. I've given the teams values (the higher the better) for how strong I see them in 4 areas (Starting Pitching, Relief Pitching, Offense, Defense) ... using mostly stats from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference and combining it with my own intuition/opinion on player performances in 2009!

2. I've weighed these values [1,25*(2/3 * SP + 1/3 * RP) + 1,1 * OFF + 0,45 * DEF + 0,2] and got "team values" or "team strength"!

3. I've looked up the schedules and noted how often every team plays against every team!

4. Then I calculated my projected wins in the following way (example: Rays against AL East):

   - "average_al_east_strength" = [Games against Yankees * "yankees_strength" + games against Boston * "red_sox_strength" + ...] / Games against AL East teams overall

   - "rays_projected_wins_division" = (Games against AL East teams)/2 + (Games against AL East teams)/2 * ["rays_strength" / "average_al_east_strength" - 1]

5. I summed up the projected wins in the division, in IL - play and in games against the other divisions in the league and had my results:

  - Agenda:

W ... projected wins

% ... projected winning percentage

W_original ... projected wins just according to "team strength" (omitting the opponents according to schedule)

W_Div ... projected wins in division

%_Div ... projected winning percentage in division

W_Lea ... projected wins against the other 2 divisions in the same league

%_Lea ... projected winning percentage against the other 2 divisions in the same league

W_IL ... projected wins in interleague play

%_Div ... projected winning percentage in interleague play

SP ... value for starting pitching (strength of the SP)

RP ... value for relief pitching (strength of the BP)

OFF ... value for offense (offensive strength)

DEF ... value for defense (defensive strength)

OVERALL ... Overall "team strength" index

OPP ... Average opponent team strength

  - Projected Standings:

AL East	W	%	W_original	W_Div	%_Div	W_Lea	%_Lea	W_IL	%_IL	SP	RP	OFF	DEF	OVERALL	OPP
Boston Red Sox	98	0,603	100	41,2	0,573	45,8	0,636	10,9	0,605	0,70	0,70	0,65	0,50	2,015	1,676
New York Yankees	97	0,600	99	40,9	0,568	45,7	0,635	10,7	0,596	0,75	0,60	0,70	0,35	2,003	1,676
Tampa Bay Rays	97	0,598	99	40,5	0,563	45,8	0,636	10,8	0,601	0,70	0,55	0,60	0,70	1,988	1,668
Toronto Blue Jays	76	0,472	80	31,1	0,432	36,7	0,510	8,8	0,486	0,50	0,65	0,45	0,50	1,608	1,717
Baltimore Orioles	68	0,420	71	27,2	0,378	32,9	0,458	8,1	0,447	0,30	0,30	0,60	0,45	1,438	1,728
AVERAGE	87	0,539	90	36,0	0,500	41,4	0,575	9,8	0,547	0,59	0,56	0,60	0,50	1,810	1,693
AL Central	W	%	W_original	W_Div	%_Div	W_Lea	%_Lea	W_IL	%_IL	SP	RP	OFF	DEF	OVERALL	OPP
Cleveland Indians	87	0,537	88	39,0	0,541	37,8	0,524	10,4	0,579	0,55	0,60	0,60	0,45	1,771	1,615
Minnesota Twins	81	0,501	81	36,4	0,505	35,2	0,488	9,8	0,542	0,60	0,45	0,53	0,35	1,628	1,618
Chicago White Sox	79	0,490	80	36,3	0,504	34,3	0,476	9,0	0,499	0,50	0,60	0,55	0,30	1,607	1,642
Detroit Tigers	77	0,475	76	34,8	0,484	33,2	0,461	9,1	0,506	0,45	0,40	0,60	0,30	1,537	1,631
Kansas City Royals	72	0,446	71	33,3	0,463	30,4	0,423	8,7	0,482	0,55	0,40	0,40	0,38	1,436	1,652
AVERAGE	79	0,490	79	36,0	0,500	34,2	0,474	9,4	0,522	0,53	0,49	0,54	0,36	1,596	1,632
AL West	W	%	W_original	W_Div	%_Div	W_Lea	%_Lea	W_IL	%_IL	SP	RP	OFF	DEF	OVERALL	OPP
Los Angeles Angels	91	0,564	89	34,9	0,613	46,3	0,532	10,4	0,575	0,65	0,70	0,55	0,35	1,796	1,601
Oakland Athletics	77	0,476	77	28,7	0,503	39,3	0,452	9,3	0,516	0,50	0,60	0,40	0,50	1,554	1,640
Texas Rangers	73	0,452	73	26,9	0,373	37,6	0,433	8,9	0,496	0,30	0,30	0,70	0,30	1,480	1,642
Seattle Mariners	67	0,414	68	24,1	0,335	34,9	0,402	8,2	0,458	0,55	0,30	0,30	0,55	1,361	1,647
AVERAGE	77	0,477	77	28,5	0,500	39,5	0,455	9,2	0,511	0,50	0,48	0,49	0,44	1,548	1,632
NL East	W	%	W_original	W_Div	%_Div	W_Lea	%_Lea	W_IL	%_IL	SP	RP	OFF	DEF	OVERALL	OPP
Philadelphia Phillies	93	0,575	93	40,6	0,565	43,5	0,604	9,3	0,515	0,58	0,60	0,57	0,72	1,884	1,633
New York Mets	90	0,554	90	39,0	0,541	43,9	0,585	7,0	0,468	0,60	0,65	0,57	0,50	1,823	1,644
Florida Marlins	85	0,527	87	37,1	0,515	40,2	0,558	8,3	0,463	0,60	0,35	0,60	0,55	1,753	1,658
Atlanta Braves	85	0,523	86	36,5	0,507	41,4	0,552	6,9	0,463	0,70	0,50	0,50	0,42	1,731	1,652
Washington Nationals	66	0,406	68	27,4	0,381	31,6	0,440	6,8	0,380	0,30	0,40	0,50	0,45	1,369	1,686
AVERAGE	84	0,517	85	36,0	0,500	40,1	0,548	7,7	0,457	0,56	0,50	0,55	0,53	1,712	1,655
NL Central	W	%	W_original	W_Div	%_Div	W_Lea	%_Lea	W_IL	%_IL	SP	RP	OFF	DEF	OVERALL	OPP
Chicago Cubs	98	0,603	94	50,6	0,632	38,3	0,579	8,4	0,562	0,65	0,55	0,65	0,45	1,888	1,562
Cincinnati Reds	81	0,500	79	41,5	0,518	32,6	0,486	7,1	0,473	0,60	0,55	0,45	0,38	1,595	1,590
St. Louis Cardinals	80	0,491	78	40,3	0,504	32,1	0,479	7,3	0,488	0,50	0,35	0,55	0,45	1,570	1,591
Milwaukee Brewers	77	0,474	76	38,3	0,485	31,8	0,468	6,8	0,454	0,45	0,35	0,55	0,45	1,528	1,604
Houston Astros	75	0,463	74	36,8	0,472	31,2	0,452	7,2	0,479	0,40	0,55	0,45	0,52	1,492	1,603
Pittsburgh Pirates	63	0,389	63	30,3	0,393	27,1	0,388	5,8	0,386	0,35	0,30	0,45	0,35	1,269	1,623
AVERAGE	79	0,487	77	39,5	0,500	32,3	0,475	7,1	0,474	0,49	0,44	0,52	0,43	1,557	1,596
NL West	W	%	W_original	W_Div	%_Div	W_Lea	%_Lea	W_IL	%_IL	SP	RP	OFF	DEF	OVERALL	OPP
Los Angeles Dodgers	90	0,558	88	41,9	0,582	39,0	0,542	9,7	0,538	0,70	0,60	0,55	0,30	1,773	1,582
Arizona Diamondbacks	87	0,536	84	39,7	0,551	39,3	0,524	8,1	0,541	0,70	0,45	0,50	0,40	1,701	1,578
Colorado Rockies	83	0,511	81	37,8	0,525	38,0	0,507	7,2	0,482	0,60	0,55	0,50	0,35	1,637	1,593
San Francisco Giants	72	0,444	72	32,3	0,448	33,1	0,441	6,8	0,452	0,65	0,40	0,30	0,45	1,441	1,614
San Diego Padres	65	0,404	65	29,0	0,402	30,2	0,403	6,4	0,424	0,40	0,45	0,40	0,35	1,318	1,625
AVERAGE	79	0,491	78	36,0	0,500	35,9	0,483	7,7	0,489	0,61	0,49	0,45	0,37	1,574	1,599
AMERICAN LEAGUE	82	0,503	82						0,528	0,54	0,51	0,55	0,43	1,659
NATIONAL LEAGUE	81	0,497	80						0,473	0,55	0,48	0,51	0,44	1,611
MLB OVERALL	81	0,500	81							0,55	0,49	0,52	0,44	1,633	1,633

  - Assumptions for my ratings/values:

Manny Ramirez is a Dodger in 2009

  - Some conclusions:

The three best teams in all of baseball play in the AL East.

AL Playoff teams: Boston, Cleveland, LA Angels, NY Yankees (WC)

NL Playoff teams: Philadelphia, Chicago Cubs, LA Dodgers, NY Mets (WC)

AL East and NL East are by far the best divisions in each league

So ... that was a lot! What do you think? Any suggestions, ideas, complaints, ...?

The last 3 days I've worked on a formula to project the standings of 2009 and now I have my results!

  - What have I done?

1. I've given the teams values (the higher the better) for how strong I see them in 4 areas (Starting Pitching, Relief Pitching, Offense, Defense) ... using mostly stats from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference and combining it with my own intuition/opinion on player performances in 2009!

2. I've weighed these values [1,25*(2/3 * SP + 1/3 * RP) + 1,1 * OFF + 0,45 * DEF + 0,2] and got "team values" or "team strength"!

3. I've looked up the schedules and noted how often every team plays against every team!

4. Then I calculated my projected wins in the following way (example: Rays against AL East):

   - "average_al_east_strength" = [Games against Yankees * "yankees_strength" + games against Boston * "red_sox_strength" + ...] / Games against AL East teams overall

   - "rays_projected_wins_division" = (Games against AL East teams)/2 + (Games against AL East teams)/2 * ["rays_strength" / "average_al_east_strength" - 1]

5. I summed up the projected wins in the division, in IL - play and in games against the other divisions in the league and had my results:

  - Agenda:

W ... projected wins

% ... projected winning percentage

W_original ... projected wins just according to "team strength" (omitting the opponents according to schedule)

W_Div ... projected wins in division

%_Div ... projected winning percentage in division

W_Lea ... projected wins against the other 2 divisions in the same league

%_Lea ... projected winning percentage against the other 2 divisions in the same league

W_IL ... projected wins in interleague play

%_Div ... projected winning percentage in interleague play

SP ... value for starting pitching (strength of the SP)

RP ... value for relief pitching (strength of the BP)

OFF ... value for offense (offensive strength)

DEF ... value for defense (defensive strength)

OVERALL ... Overall "team strength" index

OPP ... Average opponent team strength

  - Projected Standings:

AL East	W	%	W_original	W_Div	%_Div	W_Lea	%_Lea	W_IL	%_IL	SP	RP	OFF	DEF	OVERALL	OPP
Boston Red Sox	98	0,603	100	41,2	0,573	45,8	0,636	10,9	0,605	0,70	0,70	0,65	0,50	2,015	1,676
New York Yankees	97	0,600	99	40,9	0,568	45,7	0,635	10,7	0,596	0,75	0,60	0,70	0,35	2,003	1,676
Tampa Bay Rays	97	0,598	99	40,5	0,563	45,8	0,636	10,8	0,601	0,70	0,55	0,60	0,70	1,988	1,668
Toronto Blue Jays	76	0,472	80	31,1	0,432	36,7	0,510	8,8	0,486	0,50	0,65	0,45	0,50	1,608	1,717
Baltimore Orioles	68	0,420	71	27,2	0,378	32,9	0,458	8,1	0,447	0,30	0,30	0,60	0,45	1,438	1,728
AVERAGE	87	0,539	90	36,0	0,500	41,4	0,575	9,8	0,547	0,59	0,56	0,60	0,50	1,810	1,693
AL Central	W	%	W_original	W_Div	%_Div	W_Lea	%_Lea	W_IL	%_IL	SP	RP	OFF	DEF	OVERALL	OPP
Cleveland Indians	87	0,537	88	39,0	0,541	37,8	0,524	10,4	0,579	0,55	0,60	0,60	0,45	1,771	1,615
Minnesota Twins	81	0,501	81	36,4	0,505	35,2	0,488	9,8	0,542	0,60	0,45	0,53	0,35	1,628	1,618
Chicago White Sox	79	0,490	80	36,3	0,504	34,3	0,476	9,0	0,499	0,50	0,60	0,55	0,30	1,607	1,642
Detroit Tigers	77	0,475	76	34,8	0,484	33,2	0,461	9,1	0,506	0,45	0,40	0,60	0,30	1,537	1,631
Kansas City Royals	72	0,446	71	33,3	0,463	30,4	0,423	8,7	0,482	0,55	0,40	0,40	0,38	1,436	1,652
AVERAGE	79	0,490	79	36,0	0,500	34,2	0,474	9,4	0,522	0,53	0,49	0,54	0,36	1,596	1,632
AL West	W	%	W_original	W_Div	%_Div	W_Lea	%_Lea	W_IL	%_IL	SP	RP	OFF	DEF	OVERALL	OPP
Los Angeles Angels	91	0,564	89	34,9	0,613	46,3	0,532	10,4	0,575	0,65	0,70	0,55	0,35	1,796	1,601
Oakland Athletics	77	0,476	77	28,7	0,503	39,3	0,452	9,3	0,516	0,50	0,60	0,40	0,50	1,554	1,640
Texas Rangers	73	0,452	73	26,9	0,373	37,6	0,433	8,9	0,496	0,30	0,30	0,70	0,30	1,480	1,642
Seattle Mariners	67	0,414	68	24,1	0,335	34,9	0,402	8,2	0,458	0,55	0,30	0,30	0,55	1,361	1,647
AVERAGE	77	0,477	77	28,5	0,500	39,5	0,455	9,2	0,511	0,50	0,48	0,49	0,44	1,548	1,632
NL East	W	%	W_original	W_Div	%_Div	W_Lea	%_Lea	W_IL	%_IL	SP	RP	OFF	DEF	OVERALL	OPP
Philadelphia Phillies	93	0,575	93	40,6	0,565	43,5	0,604	9,3	0,515	0,58	0,60	0,57	0,72	1,884	1,633
New York Mets	90	0,554	90	39,0	0,541	43,9	0,585	7,0	0,468	0,60	0,65	0,57	0,50	1,823	1,644
Florida Marlins	85	0,527	87	37,1	0,515	40,2	0,558	8,3	0,463	0,60	0,35	0,60	0,55	1,753	1,658
Atlanta Braves	85	0,523	86	36,5	0,507	41,4	0,552	6,9	0,463	0,70	0,50	0,50	0,42	1,731	1,652
Washington Nationals	66	0,406	68	27,4	0,381	31,6	0,440	6,8	0,380	0,30	0,40	0,50	0,45	1,369	1,686
AVERAGE	84	0,517	85	36,0	0,500	40,1	0,548	7,7	0,457	0,56	0,50	0,55	0,53	1,712	1,655
NL Central	W	%	W_original	W_Div	%_Div	W_Lea	%_Lea	W_IL	%_IL	SP	RP	OFF	DEF	OVERALL	OPP
Chicago Cubs	98	0,603	94	50,6	0,632	38,3	0,579	8,4	0,562	0,65	0,55	0,65	0,45	1,888	1,562
Cincinnati Reds	81	0,500	79	41,5	0,518	32,6	0,486	7,1	0,473	0,60	0,55	0,45	0,38	1,595	1,590
St. Louis Cardinals	80	0,491	78	40,3	0,504	32,1	0,479	7,3	0,488	0,50	0,35	0,55	0,45	1,570	1,591
Milwaukee Brewers	77	0,474	76	38,3	0,485	31,8	0,468	6,8	0,454	0,45	0,35	0,55	0,45	1,528	1,604
Houston Astros	75	0,463	74	36,8	0,472	31,2	0,452	7,2	0,479	0,40	0,55	0,45	0,52	1,492	1,603
Pittsburgh Pirates	63	0,389	63	30,3	0,393	27,1	0,388	5,8	0,386	0,35	0,30	0,45	0,35	1,269	1,623
AVERAGE	79	0,487	77	39,5	0,500	32,3	0,475	7,1	0,474	0,49	0,44	0,52	0,43	1,557	1,596
NL West	W	%	W_original	W_Div	%_Div	W_Lea	%_Lea	W_IL	%_IL	SP	RP	OFF	DEF	OVERALL	OPP
Los Angeles Dodgers	90	0,558	88	41,9	0,582	39,0	0,542	9,7	0,538	0,70	0,60	0,55	0,30	1,773	1,582
Arizona Diamondbacks	87	0,536	84	39,7	0,551	39,3	0,524	8,1	0,541	0,70	0,45	0,50	0,40	1,701	1,578
Colorado Rockies	83	0,511	81	37,8	0,525	38,0	0,507	7,2	0,482	0,60	0,55	0,50	0,35	1,637	1,593
San Francisco Giants	72	0,444	72	32,3	0,448	33,1	0,441	6,8	0,452	0,65	0,40	0,30	0,45	1,441	1,614
San Diego Padres	65	0,404	65	29,0	0,402	30,2	0,403	6,4	0,424	0,40	0,45	0,40	0,35	1,318	1,625
AVERAGE	79	0,491	78	36,0	0,500	35,9	0,483	7,7	0,489	0,61	0,49	0,45	0,37	1,574	1,599
AMERICAN LEAGUE	82	0,503	82						0,528	0,54	0,51	0,55	0,43	1,659
NATIONAL LEAGUE	81	0,497	80						0,473	0,55	0,48	0,51	0,44	1,611
MLB OVERALL	81	0,500	81							0,55	0,49	0,52	0,44	1,633	1,633

  - Assumptions for my ratings/values:

Manny Ramirez is a Dodger in 2009

  - Some conclusions:

The three best teams in all of baseball play in the AL East.

AL Playoff teams: Boston, Cleveland, LA Angels, NY Yankees (WC)

NL Playoff teams: Philadelphia, Chicago Cubs, LA Dodgers, NY Mets (WC)

AL East and NL East are by far the best divisions in each league

The Rays have a slightly easier schedule in comparison to the Yankees and Red Sox (Not like last year!)

So ... that was a lot! What do you think? Any suggestions, ideas, complaints, ...?

I just wanted to know how you think the lineup should look like, now that we have signed Pat the Bat! By the way: I love the signing and I really think he is an impact bat!

My favourite lineup would be this one:

1 Aki (L) and Bartlett vs. Lefties

2 BJ (R)

3 Pena (L)

4 Longo (R)

5 CC (L)

6 The Bat (R)

7 Joyce or Gross (both L) and Zobrist or Aybar (or Ruggi or FPerez) (all B or R) vs. Lefties

8 Navi (B)

9 Bartlett (R) and Aki vs. Righties

I would love to have CC after Carlos and Longo as he is a high AVG guy which is better for RBI (and a low OBP guy ... which is bad leading off) and he would give us speed in the middle of the lineup in front of Pat, our RF and Navi! Then we are a threat on the basepaths all the time and our lineup is also alive in its "lower" parts! with Aki / Bartlett and BJ in front of Carlos and Longo and with Longo (good baserunner as well) and CC in front of the Pat / RF / Navi combo!

I wouldn't sign Rocco (as much as I would love to have him back) as he just "steals" at bats from Aybar and Benzo ... and I think that they have earned a chance to play a bit more (I know ... Rocco earned it as well, but he will be much more expensive I guess ... and maybe a liability on the field) ... despite Burrell (as full-time DH) limiting their (especially Aybar's) playing time!

I would like to see Gross on the roster as well and I would play Joyce full-time in Durham out of ST! Then FPerez and Ruggi could contribute for the 4th outfielder job out of ST!

So ... what do you guys think?

 

When looking at the non - tendered players from yesterday I found some interesting names for the Rays in '09:

- Joe Nelson (RHRP) ... He is very good against lefties and not bad against righties either (at least in '08) ... okay, he earlier failed in Tampa but he could be worth a shot!

- Ty Wigginton (COF, IF) ... Another Ex - Devil Ray ... He could be our backup plan if we fail to sign Bradley, Baldelli or Burrell (I would prefer him to Giambi and Abreu because of his splits) ... He could platoon with Joyce in RF and play some DH against righties ... He could also give CC some time at the DH spot to rest his knees ... would be a good signing

- Takashi Saito (RP) ... Depends on his medical status of course ... could be very interesting for the later parts of the season when Percy will go down again!

What do you think?

Any other interesting non - tendered names?