SB Nation User Blog: C-Gon

Cubs Want Some Harden

C-Gon — Mon, 07 Jul 2008 15:34:10 -0000

EDITOR'S NOTE: I found this to be the topic that I want to talk about all the time now because we're really getting to a fascinating time of year. The trading deadline is just a little over three weeks away and the A's are sliding a bit now. I wouldn't doubt if this upcoming weekend is the decision time for Beane as to whether or not he's going to make Harden and Duchscherer available for the highest bidder. This could be one of the most interesting trading deadlines in Billy Beane's tenure as GM. - Blez

From Rotoworld:

The Chicago Sun-Times reports that the Cubs have been talking with Oakland GM Billy Beane in hopes of attaining Rich Harden.
The Cubs were looking for starting pitching before division rival Milwaukee snared C.C. Sabathia, and that move made the need slightly more pressing. Still, the A's are only six games out of first and might wait until closer to the deadline to start dealing. The Cubs are also thought to be interested in San Diego's Randy Wolf.

Who do you think Beane is asking for in return for Harden?

Josh Vitters is a really interesting name... their top pick from last year, hasn't even turned 19 yet, but we don't have too many 3B prospects. He's had some hand injury all year, so he hasn't played much.

Felix Pie is another interesting prized Cubs prospect who they've shuttled back and forth between the majors and minors, but still has amazing power/speed tools.

In terms of pitching, Samardzija, the former WR could be interesting. Another guy is Rich Hill, who after a breakout 2007 campaign suddenly can't find the plate even back in the minors. They also don't seem too sure that they want Sean Marshall or Sean Gallagher to be a part of their future rotation.

Do you love Oakland?

C-Gon — Mon, 16 Jun 2008 22:09:13 -0000

Do you love Oakland?

Do you love Oakland as much as you love the A's? Oakland Mayor Ron Dellums has been wantonly spending money - $50,000 for personal expenses, while the city is $14 million debt.

Verlander's going to be just fine

C-Gon — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 11:43:26 -0000

I'm not a Tigers fan (A's all the way, darn you guys for taking us out of the playoffs two years ago), but I'm a huge stats guy and avid fantasy baseball fan. I was looking at Justin Verlander's numbers and came across some really extreme splits that might explain why he's been struggling:

2008:

Bases empty: .218 BAA
With Runners on: .314 BAA

Bottomline: He's going to be fine, better than fine.

Now compare that split to the previous two years:

2007:

Bases empty: .235 BAA

With Runners on: .230 BAA

2006:

Bases empty: .274 BAA

With Runners on: .254 BAA

While you can't say that a pitcher should have the same BAA with the bases empty and with runners on, over 100 points difference is pretty extreme. And while some pitchers are terrible from the stretch (one prime example is Dave Bush, who despite great WHIPs every year can't seem to put up a decent ERA with a career .252 BAA with the bases empty and .290 BAA with runners on), others turn it up with runners on (One extreme example with some luck involved is Zambrano, who has a .280 BAA with nobody on, but .188 with runners on this year).

We won't try to figure out whether this is a mechanical issue with pitching from the stretch or some mental issue, but just from looking at Verlander's past two seasons, he doesn't seem to fit the bill of someone who struggles this badly from the stretch. His LOB% this year is a terrible/unlucky 63.5% compared to 74.9% and 78.3%. All of these scream that there will soon be some regression to the mean.

While there are some bad signs such as his low K/9 (5.28 compared to 8.17 last year), the bottom line is that Verlander will be alright. The 100 point difference in BAA with runners on won't stay that way all season long, and his K/9 will improve, although maybe not to last year's levels.

Here's another interesting split if you look at his era by pitch count:

Pitches 1-15: 14.73 ERA
Pitches 16-30: 3.27
Pitches 31-45: 3.86
Pitches 46-60: 4.97
Pitches 61-75: 2.70
Pitches 76-90: 5.73
Pitches 91-105: 1.35
Pitches 106-120: 8.31

I know it's not a huge sample size, but he's definitely getting rocked at the beginning of games, and then being left in too long (couple starts where he was lights out... then once he got into the 6th or 7th, he gave up like 4 or 5 runs, and suddenly a great start gets ruined). One such example was Apr 27 start against the Angels:

Through 5 innings, his numbers looked like this:

5 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K

Not bad... then the 6th inning came around:

0.2 IP, 3 H, 4 ER, 3 BB

So whatever it is that's plaguing him, whether it's some mental block at the beginning of games and with runners on, I think Verlander will be Verlander again soon, and the Tigers will be the team everyone thought they would be at the beginning of this year (except when you guys play the A's of course).

Going Ga-Ga for C-Gon

C-Gon — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 09:30:08 -0000

Carlos Gonzalez made his major league debut on Friday against the Rangers, going 2 for 3 with 2 doubles and 1 RBI. After his first series, he's 4 for 11 (all doubles!) - so far, so good. As the centerpiece of the 6-for-2 deal that sent Danny Haren to the desert, C-Gon was ranked as the 18th best prospect by Baseball America in 2007. To quote Yahoo Fantasy Expert Brandon Funston, "The 22-year-old is blessed with a quick, strong all-fields stroke that has generated a per-162-game average of 22 HRs and a batting average pushing .290 in 580-plus minor league games." But the thing to get out of those gushing words of praise is that he's only 22, and he's probably headed back to the minors once Ryan Sweeney comes off the DL.

So what can we realistically expect from C-Gon this year? And why did he arrive in the majors with so little attention? Well mainly because of this guy , who's batting an unreal .591 with a 6/1 BB/K ratio and a walkoff to his name after only 6 games. But going back to C-Gon: he's only played about 50 games at AAA, and this year, before being called up, he was batting .293 with 4 homers, 1 steal, and a 13/30 BB/K ratio. Those numbers aren't exactly on the level of the aforementioned Bruce, but that's not the only reason C-Gon hasn't gotten much attention. Of course, Bruce is actually younger than C-Gon by a couple years, but he's played twice as many games at the AAA level (and put up amazing numbers there) and he figures to stick around with Corey Patterson being shipped down. On the other hand, it isn't clear how C-Gon fits into the A's plans this year. Most likely, when Ryan Sweeney returns from the DL (and he was just starting to play well before he hit the DL, at least during the two games during the BoSox series I was in attendance for), C-Gon goes back to the minors for more seasoning. Even though an Emil Brown-Ryan Sweeney-Jack Cust OF won't exactly set the league on fire, most experts agree that C-Gon is probably at least a year away from being ready to be an everyday player for the A's. Don't get me wrong, I'm very excited about his future prospects, and by all means, I hope he and the A's prove me wrong and he sticks around to play everyday. However, most likely, this two-week stint will just be a taste of the big leagues for C-Gon and a teaser for us A's fans of our very bright future (even if it's in Fremont). Enjoy the trailer while it lasts. I know I sure will.

Sources:

http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/blog/roto_arcade/post/Closing-Time-Going-ga-ga-for-Bruce-Kershaw-no?urn=fantasy,85361

http://www.sportsline.com/mlb/players/playerpage/1103728

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlos_Gonz%C3%A1lez_%28baseball%29