There is a poster on the BB main message board that has historically had some pretty good inside information about the Bills. Obviously it could be a fake, but he was dead on with some of his information on the Mario Williams stuff and some other things that have come up in the past. He provided some pretty interesting comments on what happened inside the War Room this past weekend and I wanted to share with you. First, he said that his contact told him to tell all his friends how much the Bills liked Kalil and Barron. And that they were willing to trade up for them. That could explain a lot of the smoke signals that were going off in the weeks before the draft. He said the guy they wanted all along was Gilmore. He said the pick came down to Gilmore and then Kuechly. If they were gone and couldn't trade down, then the pick would have been Glenn at 10. He said they felt like they got the steal of the draft with Glenn in the second round. He indicated that there were at least three other teams that had a 2nd round grade on TJ Graham (and the Bills had him with a 2nd round grade too). He also indicated they were interested in Russell Wilson and that some at OBD were upset that we didn't land him. Take it for what it is worth, but I thought it was some pretty interesting information

Buddy was on talking this afternoon and had some interesting things to say. The thing that really got my attention was when they asked him about left tackle. He talked about Bell and it seemed that he was anticipating him NOT being back. So they asked him about Hairston. Buddy said he feels Hairston can handle the LT job this year and he is "not worried about it."

But, then they asked him about LT in the draft. He said that they'd like to get a LT that could start right away and also get another LT later that they could develop. So, by stating that he wanted one that could start right away seemed to contradict his statement about having confidence in Hairston.

They asked him about the #10 pick and if he saw LTs there that could step in and play right away. He mentioned that there were 2-3 that fit that mold and that they might not be the same people everyone is talking about. So I thought that was interesting and it led me to think about Cordy Glenn and Mike Adams as guys Nix might be higher on than guys like Martin and Reiff. Pat Kirwan actually said "don't tell us who they are", so Nix is definitely intimating that there are some sleepers that they like at LT in round 1.

He then mentioned that he thought tackles were deep in this draft and thought there were guys he could get later in the draft (he actually said rounds 2-3) that could learn for a year and then start next year.

So, that being said, it led me to believe that they are leaning towards LT in round one, but it might not be any of the big names that we are expecting to hear. For some reason I am thinking Cordy Glenn is the guy they like a lot. He's big, strong, athletic and versatile. Being a UGA fan, I question if he can come in an start at LT right away though. But Buddy knows better than I do.

Just wanted to pass along that information as we all know Buddy is a pretty straight shooter.

I don't think we will trade up for RGIII, but hear me out because I think there are some interesting dynamics that will play out. First, I strongly believe that St Louis should trade that pick to the highest bidder before free agency starts. Because once free agency starts, Peyton and Flynn will end up signing with two out of the four teams that are interested in moving up for Griffin. Right now, Cleveland, Miami, Washington and Seattle are probably willing to give up the farm to move up for RGIII. More than likely, two of those teams will be completely out of the running for RGIII once Peyton and Flynn find new homes.

Personally, I think Flynn ends up in Miami as it just makes too much sense. And I think Peyton ends up in Wash. So let's say it plays out that way. Now, the price for the #2 pick may drop a little as only Clev and Seattle are serious suitors for a trade up.

So, IF so inclined, Buddy would have an easier time in moving up as we'd really only be fighting against Cleveland to get RGIII. I know this will probably never happen, except in one scenario. I think if OBD hits it big in free agency and fills most of their major holes, then they would have to strongly consider moving up to get RGIII. If they manage to land a DE that they feel upgrades the pass rush, add a big #2 WR, and re-sign Stevie, Bell, Chandler and Morrison.....then filling those holes through the draft doesn't become such a pressing need. And if they traded away the first three round picks, they'd still have two fourth rounders to possibly move back into the third round if they saw a guy they really wanted.

Again, I know this is a pipe dream. But a man can dream right? Seriously though, St Louis should really trade that pick before free agency hits so they can maximize the value for it. I think they'll still get a ton for the pick even if they wait, but why not just move it now and maximize the bidding war?

I did some thinking last night and I came to the conclusion that we absolutely need to sign or franchise Stevie. Here is my reason why. First, there are numerous teams that need a top WR. Off the top of my head I can name Kansas City, Tampa, Jacksonville, Washington, Tennessee, San Fran, Seattle, Chicago and Cleveland. A couple of those teams (KC, Jax, Wash, Chicago and Cleveland) border on desperate need for a WR. On top of that, most of those teams have MORE cap space than we'll have, or at least equivalent space to spend on a WR.

The second factor is that I believe there are only 9 top WR available. Those are: Wallace, Bowe, V Jackson, Welker, Stevie, Lloyd, Colston, Wayne, and Garcon. If you look at each one of them, it will be very clear that most of them won't even be available as options to the Bills. Wallace is not practical as we wouldn't give up our #10 pick to get him. Bowe will almost definitely be franchised by KC. I highly doubt Welker will not re-sign with NE, and even if he doesn't, I highly doubt he'd want to come to Buffalo and he isn't exactly the big WR we are looking for to replace Stevie. Lloyd could be available, but has already stated he wants to play in NE for McDaniels. Wayne is too old and I can't imagine Nix bringing him in for big $$ at his age. And I don't see any way Garcon doesn't stay with Indy.

That leaves us with V Jackson, Stevie and Colston as realistic options for Buffalo. This is assuming we don't re-sign or tag Stevie, so that leaves VJax and Colston. So, first of all, we'll be battling Jax, Wash, Chicago, Cleveland, New Orleans, and several other teams for VJax and Colston. And on top of that, I can almost guarantee that if we were to land one of those two guys, we'd have to overpay one of them to get them to choose us.

So my thought process is, if we are going to have to overpay for a WR, why not overpay (A LITTLE) for the one that is already in Buffalo? Because what REALLY scares me is that if we don't keep Stevie, it is FAR from certain that we will be able to replace him with an equal or better talent. What in the world will we do if we don't keep Stevie and we are unable to replace him with one of those other 8 WR that I listed? I certainly don't want Manningham (or a comparable FA) as our #1 WR next year. And unless it is Blackmon, I would be extremely upset if we lose Stevie and have to use our #10 pick on the second best WR in the draft.

Given this, how in the world would Nix not at least use the franchise tag on Stevie? The risk of going into the open market this year without a #1 WR on the roster and battling against all of the WR-needy teams with big wallets is just too risky for me.

Okay, here is my non-Mario Williams, realistic off-season that would make me happy.

First, I would re-sign or franchise Stevie. I would also re-sign Bell and Chandler. I'd cut McGee and Dwan Edwards for cost savings.

In free agency, assuming we can't get Mario or Avril, I would completely avoid the other DE's like Mincey. They'll be overpriced for guys that are of average value. So in free agency, I'd sign the following players:

Terrell Thomas CB

Either Manningham or Meacham at WR

One of Morrison, Manny Lawson or Rocky McIntosh for SLB

I think given our cap space and the large number of top CB and WR in free agency, those guys can be fit under our cap pretty easily. Of course that still leaves us with a gaping hole for a pass rush.

But I'd do the following in the draft to hopefully address it:

Round 1 - Coples, Upshaw or Ingram (in that order)

Round 2 - Vinny Curry, Andre Branch or Chandler Jones (in that order)

Round 3 - Osweiler, Cousins or Foles (in that order)

Round 4a - Shea McLellin or Bruce Irvin LB

Round 4b - Nate Potter LT or best TE available

Counting on the two rookie DEs to immediately upgrade our pass rush is not realistic. But I think it is our best option. Rather than invest in a mediocre DE in free agency. Hopefully at least one of these guys will develop quickly and over the long term develop into a stud DE.

Round 3 would bring us the QB we desperately need to groom behind Fitz. If we can get one of those LBs with our first pick in round 4, I think that would give us some youth at SLB and possible pass rush help too.

So, I don't think this offseason would make us a playoff team next year. But, I think it is a very realistic offseason to expect and if those young DEs come along sooner than later, could have a major impact on our defense.

What do you think, would you be happy with this offseason?

First, I apologize for the lack of formatting on this post. I have tremendous problems with sbnation and my browsers. It happens on all of my computers. I just read the latest on Rotoworld saying that OBD and Stevie are still 'far apart' in contract negotiations. It once again got me very aggravated and I am coming here to vent my frustrations. If we don't keep Stevie, my already shaky faith in the Bills organization will take another devastating blow. Unless Stevie is asking for a crazy amount of money (which he may be, but I doubt it), then we need to have him in a Bills uniform at least for next year. Nix has already talked about our needs for WR, so if we let our best one go for no compensation, then I am not sure what they are thinking. Stevie may not be elite, but he's not too far below that caliber. And, he's still young and learning. I don't think Stevie has reached his ceiling yet. He seems to be a very likeable guy in the clubhouse and he certainly seems to be the type of guy that is putting in the work to be great. So, if even if we have to overpay him a LITTLE, it is complete foolishness not to. We can't continue to develop players and then lose them when they hit their prime. I can almost understand if they are struggling coming up with a long term contract for him. Based on some of his drops and some of his TD celebrations, I can understand their reluctance to give him a huge deal. So if that is the case and that is the sticking point, then franchise the guy. One thing is for sure, this life long Bills fan will be FUMING if they let him go. In my mind, there is zero excuse for not at least using the franchise tag on him. If he goes, that just leaves another gaping hole to fill on our roster. And just sets up back even further from being a competitive team. I can't see any justification for not getting a young, talented, proven talent signed to a deal to keep him in Buffalo for the next few years. If Stevie is not in a Bills uniform next season (unless he is traded) then I will have ZERO confidence in Nix and the rest of OBD to ever lead us back to the playoffs. Maybe I am overreacting, but that is how I feel.

Okay, I got this idea from a poster on another web-site. Let me start out by saying that I don't think this is a likely scenario, but his post got me thinking.

I think we've all agreed that we have a glaring need for a RDE and SAM LB. We also have pretty pressing needs at CB and WR. Another thing that is quite evident is that we have a LOT of cap room to spend, if we choose to spend it and if the free agents choose to come here.

I think most of us believe that we also have a glaring need for a franchise QB. However, most of us want to be competitive right now, and don't want to use our #10 pick to address the QB spot which would likely not provide an immediate return on our investment.

So, what if we were able to fill our immediate, critical needs via free agency. Let's say we are able to go out and sign Mario Williams, Vincent Jackson, a decent (not great CB) like Routt/Thomas/etc., and a decent (not great SAM LB)?

Then, we turn around and trade our #10 pick, Stevie, and second rounders this year and next to St. Louis for the #2 pick. We would then select RG III as our franchise QB.

I think it is feasible from a cap perspective. And I don't think anyone can argue that our defense would be massively improved just by adding Mario plus a decent CB. We'd be swapping out Stevie for V Jax, so we'd still have a respectable amount of weapons on offense.

What would you think about that scenario? Personally, I think this is the only scenario that I'd be willing to give up that much to get RG III. We'd have to fill those defensive holes through free agency in order to be able to sacrifice the picks it would take to move up and get Griffin. But, if by some miracle, all of those things play out in free agency, I would love to see Nix do whatever it takes to move up and get RG III. He could then sit a year behind Fitz and then be ready to take over a young, solid team in 2013.

Okay, I am so frustrated by this team right now. I told my stepson before the Jets game started that Maybin would have at least two sacks against us. I could just tell the way our season was going that the ultimate insult was going to happen in that game. Every bone in my body wants to write a doom and gloom, pessimistic post right now. But, for the first time in many, many years, I feel like I can see a light at the end of the tunnel (and I don't think it is an oncoming train).

So, I was trying to figure out why I am not more frustrated with this team right now. Here is what I can come up with.

1. I think we might finally have a solid offensive line to build on. Hairston seems to be holding up quite well at LT which is a huge suprise. Levitre, Wood and Urbik have been quite solid up the middle. Pears is still shaky, but I can live with his overall production. Rinhart provides very nice depth up the middle. Offensive line is no longer a huge, gaping hole!

2. While Scott Chandler needs to improve on his blocking, I think we've finally found a long term answer at tight end. The guy catches everything thrown his way and seems to have a good knack for getting open on 3rd down and in the red zone. Finally, a tight end that is somewhat of a reliable weapon.

3. I have really liked what I've seen from Brad Smith the last two weeks. He had a great game against the Jets and could have easily had a MONSTER day yesterday had Fitz hit him on one or both of those long passes where he was wide open. Smith is big and fast. If he can turn into a consistent weapon opposite Stevie, then that significantly upgrades our WR corps and fills another huge hole.

4. Our young defensive players have me very optimistic. While they have been a little inconsistent, Dareus, Carrington, Aaron Williams, Searcy, Sheppard and Rogers have all shown flashes of being quality players. With some experience added to each of them, plus getting Kyle Williams and George Wilson back, we could have a really good corps of young defensive players to build around. Not to mention that Byrd and Barnett are both playing fantastic football too.

5. Finally, one thing that I really liked in the loss to the Jets is that we finally 'manned up' against them. Even with all of our injuries on the offensive and defensive line, we did not let them push us around. I think their manhood was called out in the first Jets game, and they realized that they have to play tougher. And even being undermanned, they came out and played much tougher in the second game.

Fitz is Fitz, he's only going to take us so far. If he could ever develop some consistency, then we'd really be dangerous. But at least our offense is somewhat entertaining to watch (at least compared to the last 10 years of crappy offense). And I really believe we are 2 solid, pass rushing OLBs away from fielding a very good defense. I think for the first time in many years, we are only a few key pieces away from fielding a playoff team.

So, I guess those are my reasons for being optimistic even after 5 straight losses. Tell me if I am crazy!

Okay, on Oct 17 I posted a poll after we lost to the Giants and fell to 4-2.  I wanted to know what everyone thought our final record would be.  At the time, I predicted 9-7 as I liked our progress but wasn't totally buying into us as a playoff team yet.

8% of you thought we'd go 11-5, 50% predicted 10-6, 25% predicted 9-7, 9% said we'd go 8-8, 2% said 7-9 and 2% said 6-10.  Those 6 and 7 win predictions looked pretty foolish at the time, but they aren't looking quite as crazy anymore.  Those 10 and 11 win predictions are looking like the foolish picks now.

Given the injuries and total regression in every aspect of our team over the last 3 weeks, I am dropping my prediction of our final record from 9-7 to 8-8.  I am seriously considering a 7-9 prediction.  I know everyone thinks the Miami games are easy wins.  I am not buying that.  In fact, I will be SHOCKED if we beat them on the road next week.  Our next win might not come until our next home game. 

So, what is your prediction now?

Poll

What will the Bills final record be?

1%

11-5

3 votes

5%

10-6

9 votes

23%

9-7

37 votes

39%

8-8

62 votes

21%

7-9

34 votes

5%

6-10

9 votes

1%

5-11

2 votes

156 votes | Poll has closed

Even with as good of a game as Dareus had, I really think Moats made the biggest impact on the pass rush yesterday.  He was very consistently getting pressure on the outside and forcing Beck to step up into the pocket.  And when Beck stepped up, Dareus and Edwards were typically waiting there for him.  So while Moats only got credit for 1/2 a sack yesterday, I really believe he was the driving force behind 3-4 other sacks that were generated because Beck had to move up in the pocket to avoid Moats.

I believe that if Arthur Moats can continue to provide a consistent edge presence like he did yesterday, that our sack totals will see dramatic improvement as the season progresses.  Merriman was not providing enough of a rush to force QBs to step up.  It seemed that Merriman was doing more of a bull rush move most of the time and not trying to get around the edge of the tackle. 

So, my hat is off to Moats.  I hope he can put the same kind of pressure on Sanchez this week and we can get some consistent pressure on Sanchez.

Well, I haven't posted in a long time.  For some reason, I have a really hard time getting this webpage to come up cleanly in my web browser.  Today is one of the few days that it has actually come up where I could see the entire page.

Anyway, I was very disappointed at yesterday's loss.  I believe that was a key game toward determining if we were going to have a real shot at making the playoffs this year.  And we handed that game away.  I have a bad feeling that giving away the games against Cincy and the Giants are going to come back to haunt us at the end of the year.

Looking at the rest of the schedule and giving my best prediction, I come to the conclusion that we'll finish at 9-7 this year and probably miss the playoffs by one game.  I think the home games vs. Wash, Jets, Tenn, Miami and Denver are wins.  I think @ Dallas, @ Miami, @ Jets, @ SD and @ NE are all losses.  We'll probably lose one of those that I expect to win and maybe win one of those I expect to lose.  But, either way, that comes back to 9-7. 

So I was thinking, what are your REALISTIC expectations of our final record this year?

Poll

Final Record Prediction:

0%

12-4

1 votes

8%

11-5

20 votes

50%

10-6

116 votes

25%

9-7

57 votes

9%

8-8

22 votes

2%

7-9

6 votes

2%

6-10

6 votes

228 votes | Poll has closed

I see a lot of issues with OBD's build through the draft philosophy.  I do agree that in normal situations, that is by far the preferred approach.  But I will tell you why that won't work for us. 

First, every single team 'builds thru the draft'.  There isn't a team out there that doesn't use the draft to help build their team.  So, unless OBD is significantly better at the draft than other teams are, that will not catch us up in talent to other organizations. 

Second, building through the draft is a fine philosophy for teams that already have a lot of talent.  Teams like the Pats, Steelers, etc. already have a lot of talent and are using the draft to supplement their roster and fill certain holes.  Building through the draft is not a great way to catch up if you have an overall lack of talent on your roster already.

Third, building through the draft takes a LOT of time.  Teams are lucky to get one immediate impact player in a draft.  Typically it takes 2-3 years to start getting real production out of your draft picks.  So by the time a draft class starts to produce, you find yourself with other holes on the team that need to be filled.

I am not saying a team should go out and be the Redskins or Raiders.  Trading away your draft picks or buying a bunch of free agents is not a way to build your team for the long run.  But, the good teams make trades and add free agents that will make immediate impacts on their team.  and that is especially important for teams that are already behind in overall talent.

OBD needs to aggressively use free agency (especially with our cap figure being so low) and trades to supplement our build through the draft mentality.  At least until we catch up in talent.  Then you can go back to your conservative approach.  We should actually be overpaying (if we need to) to acquire impact players to speed up our rebuilding project.  Guys that can come in an make an immediate impact at need positions.  Not over the hill guys, but guys in their 20's that are proven but still have some upside.

If we keep adding role players like Brad Smith, Andre Davis, etc., we'll forever be playing catchup while hoping that our draftees turn into impact players.  And even if they do turn into stars, can we even be aggressive enough to keep them.

I am tired of playing catchup.  It is a neverending process.  The Jets and Patriots certainly aren't conservative.  They've built through the draft but have supplemented their rosters with savvy free agent signings and good trades. 

Let me tell you a lesson that I learned a long time ago that I think applies to being the GM of the Buffalo Bills.  I play rotisserie baseball, so we have a salary cap of $280 to bid on players and fill our roster.  One year, I had a lot of cheap players that I kept going into the auction.  So I had a LOT of money to spend compared to the other 11 owners.  Inflation was really high and players were going for way too much money.  So, I sat back and waited for the values to start dropping.  I kept saying to myself "I am not going to overpay for players." 

Well, by the end of the auction I didn't overpay for any players.  I did manage to get a few values on some guys, but I also ended up not using my entire $280.  It was wasted.  And you know what, my team stunk that year.  The lesson I learned is that sometimes, given market conditions and the player involved, you have to overpay.  If you don't, your team will stink.  And if you follow that strategy every year, your team will stink for a long time.

On the flip side, you have to be careful not to overpay for the wrong player. That is an even worse situation to be in.  The name Derrick Dockery comes to my mind.  But, you have to trust your talent evaluators and if you feel a player is going to produce well for you, and you have to overpay a little for his services, then I think you need to be prepared to do that.

I don't know if Poz was worth overpaying or not.  For now, I am trusting OBD.  But, I can't say that I am not very concerned that it was so clearly stated that they wanted to keep him but they weren't willing to overpay a little bit for his services.  If he was so highly desired by OBD, then they should have spent a little over their budget to keep him.

I just hope they learn the lesson that sometimes you do have to overpay for players that you want.  Not to overpay by crazy amounts, but if you want to build a winning team then you need to invest in the core players to build around. 

I have been trying to figure out which jersey to get this year. My last few jerseys have not been good luck.  Going back in time to my first jersey it was Bryce Paup, Antoine Winfield, Drew Bledsoe, JP Losman, Trent Edwards and Stevie Johnson.  Pretty much every one of those guys completely flopped shortly after my purchase or left via free agency shortly after.  Let's hope i didn't jinx Stevie.

Because of this, I was heavily leaning towards a Dareus jersey.  I think he's safe to be a great performer and he should be around a few years.  But....I was looking at the jerseys on nfl.com and saw an Arthur Moats jersey.  I really, really like Moats.  I thought he came on strong towards the end of last year and I think he has a ton of potential.  I love his relentless style of play.  But, I am scared to get his jersey because I am very unsure about how he'll develop.  He could develop into a superstar or he could be off the team in two years (and with my jersey track record, that would probably be the case). 

So my question for everyone is, what type of player do you think Arthur Moats will turn into?  Your feedback will help me determine if I roll the dice on getting a Moats jersey or play it safe with a Dareus.

Poll

What will Arthur Moats be 2 years from now?

31%

All Pro (James Harrison type)

53 votes

46%

Average starter (Chris Kelsay type)

78 votes

4%

Bench player (Akin Ayodele type)

7 votes

0%

Complete bust and off the team

0 votes

18%

Please don't buy his jersey and jinx hiim

31 votes

169 votes | Poll has closed

Well, we have 3 of the first 36 picks today.  And there is still a lot of talent on the board at NEED positions for us.  I view RT as our biggest need right now, followed by TE, OLB and then SS.  Here are some of the best available at each of those positions.

OT - Brewer, Hairston, Pinkston, Cannon, Ziemba, Mims, Smith

TE - Stocker, Jordan, DJ Williams, Green

OLB - Acho, KJ Wright, Carter

SS - Sash, Carter, Searcy, Black, McDaniel

It also wouldn't surprise me if we grab another ILB and there is still some talent there too with Sturdivant, McCarthy, and Mathews.

Personally, I'd love to get the best OT with our first pick and then grab the best OLB left with the next pick.  Seriously, all three of the guys that we drafted yesterday could be starters by mid-season next year.  I think we could get 2 or 3 guys today that could also be mid-season starters.  I think almost any of the guys on this list at OT and TE would have a huge opportunity to start for us very early.  I guess that is the sad state of our current roster, but it is nice to be bringing in a lot of talent on the roster.

I am hoping we get Sheard (or Houston) with #34.  I think both of them are great fits for our defense.  They can both play DE in our 4-3 looks and be stout enough against the run but also supply significant pass rush.  And, while they may not be perfect for the OLB in the 3-4, I believe they both have the athletic ability to play there.  I think they will struggle a little in coverage, but both would be huge pass rushers off the edge.  I think either would play the Kelsay role on our defense and be significantly better than Kelsay.

Then in the 3rd, as most people are projecting, I think we take Kelvin Sheppard.  It isn't a secret that OBD likes the guy, and I think he is a really good fit to play next to Poz at ILB. 

Obviously if this happens, we'll have a very young, inexperienced defense this year.  So I wouldn't expect huge improvements in our overall defensive numbers.  But, by 2012, I'd fully expect the young guys to start realizing their full potential and we could have a potentially dominant defense for many years to come. 

Last night, Nix was on a radio show.  They were asking him about the QBs in the draft.  He said that he thought Newton and Gabbert had franchise QB potential.  No surprise there.  But then the hosts asked him for his thoughts on the other QBs.  I don't remember Nix's exact quote, but to paraphrase he said, "Those guys are good, but are they better than Fitzpatrick?  If we select a QB in the draft, we want a QB that can take the next step and be better than what Fitzpatrick is." 

I completely agree with that statement.  If they don't think down the road that Ponder, Mallett, Kaepernick, Dalton, etc. can be a significant upgrade from Fitzpatrick, then why waste a draft pick on them?  Now, he didn't come out and say if he thought any of them could be an upgrade from Fitz, but the way he talked seemed to give the impression that he did NOT think any of them were an upgrade over Fitz.  Again, could be a smokescreen so that one of them falls to us at 34, but I thought it was an interesting comment.  It definitely had me thinking that they are going to look at Gabbert VERY close if they don't think any of the other QBs will be better than Fitz.

Rumors are that Shanahan wants Gabbert and is trying to trade up from #10 to #2 to get him.  If that rumor is true, it would likely cost Washington their 1st and 2nd rounders this year, plus their first rounder next year.  Again, IF that rumor is true, if I am Buddy Nix, I am calling Shanahan right now saying that we'd be more than happy to do that deal with Washington.  Tell him that we were going to take Gabbert (lie) but if they'll do a first/second this year, plus their first next year, then we'll pull the trigger.

I would be ecstatic if we could pull this deal off.  I think we could get Cam Jordan at #10, and I don't see him as too big of a dropoff in talent from Dareus at #3.  Jordan may even be a slightly better fit for our hybrid defense.  And to add a high second rounder this year, and a likely high 1st rounder next year would be a huge win for our organization.

Of course, I don't see Buddy making this trade, and I really don't see Washington making this trade either.  But...if this offer was on the table, would you pull the trigger?

I've been thinking a lot about the latest information coming about about OBD interest in Ponder.  Lots of sources have linked him to us, then Andre Reed tweets that he can't wait to announce his name, then more rumors about us trading back up into the first to get him.  What if all of that is just smokescreen from OBD?  While I do believe that the Bills would have interest in Ponder, what I find REALLY hard to believe is that they would let Reed know about that interest.  And even if they did, Andre can't be dumb enough to tweet that information for the entire world to see (at least I hope he's not that dumb).  And OBD doesn't seem to be leaking news all over the place like in past years, so it surprises me that so much information about Ponder has managed to escape OBD.

So, does that smell fishy to anyone else?  I was trying to think about why they'd leak this (mis)information. 

1. One thought is that they really want Gabbert at 3 and are scared someone might jump ahead of them with Denver's pick.  Leaking this information could lead Cincy or Arizona to stay put and think we'll pass on Gabbert.

2. My second thought is that they want to create the illusion that they are highly interested in trading up for a QB in round 1 to start an early run on QBs.  That would help some of the top defensive talent (or offensive tackle) slide to us at 34.

3. Or, they may really be interested in a different QB like Mallett, Kaepernick or Dalton.  Creating a buzz about Ponder could possibly encourage someone to jump in front of us to take Ponder when we are targeting a different QB the whole time.

So, what do you think is the reason for the information leak regarding Ponder?

Poll

Why did the information leak out about OBD interest in Ponder?

10%

1. They really want Gabbert with their first pick.

23 votes

22%

2. They want defensive talent to fall into our laps at #34.

49 votes

12%

3. They really want a different QB than Ponder.

28 votes

23%

4. This really isn't a smokescreen and their interest is legitimate.

52 votes

30%

5. CBATL32 is losing his mind overthinking the 2011 NFL draft.

67 votes

219 votes | Poll has closed

I just saw an article that got me thinking.  It was talking about how Carolina may not take Newton and instead take Dareus at #1.  So, let's say that Carolina does surprise everyone and take Dareus at #1.  I imagine that Denver wouldn't be too happy in that situation.  I can't imagine them taking Von Miller as he just isn't a good fit for their new defensive scheme.  I can't see who else they would take besides Peterson in that scenario.

So....let's say that is the scenario that plays out next Thursday.  That leaves Newton and Von Miller as the most likely targets for the Bills.  There are obviously other considerations, but I believe those are the two options that OBD will be considering in that situation.  So, I have two questions for you....

1. Who would you select if you had your preference?

2. Who do you think OBD selects in that scenario?

Okay, here it is.  I've made my final determination.  This is my dream (somewhat realistic) draft for us.  It starts with a trade, that probably won't, but should happen.  Carolina takes Newton and Denver takes Dareus.  OBD wants Von Miller.  Cincy and Arizona both want Gabbert.  Arizona trades us their first and second rounders to jump ahead of Cincy to get Gabbert.  It works out almost perfectly on the draft value chart.  OBD would be crazy not to make this trade if available, because Cincy most likely won't take Miller, so OBD gets the player they want and an extra second rounder.

With our first rounder, we select Von Miller.  Gets us our OLB and huge pass rush upgrade.

Our first second round pick is either Ponder/Mallet/Locker/Kaepernick/Dalton, whichever is still there and that OBD likes.  I believe it will be Ponder, but either way, we get a QB to groom behind Fitz.

With Arizona's second rounder, we select either Ballard/Heyward/Wilkerson, whichever is left and I believe at least one will be on the board with that pick. That gives us a solid 5-tech DE to put in the rotation with Carrington and Edwards.

Our third rounder will be OT Carpenter/Gilbert/Barksdale.  Any of them would be a solid RT for many years to come.  I really like Carpenter and think Gailey will be high on him after working with him in the Senior Bowl.  I think he could be a LT down the line.

The first fourth rounder will be Kelvin Sheppard.  He should be on the board with this pick and he'll be a nice complement to Poz at ILB.  I've heard from many places that Nix loves him, so I think he'll be the pick there.

With the other fourth rounder, BPA.  We've filled several huge holes with the first 5 picks.  So I can see them grabbing the best TE, CB, ILB or safety available here.  Guys like Virgil Green, Colin McCarthy, Casey Mathews, Demarcus VanDyke could be solid considerations here.

So essentially we'd be upgrading our pass rush (and pushing Kelsay to the bench), getting our QB of the future (hopefully), a big, run stopping addition to our defensive line, an upgrade at RT, and a run stuffing ILB with this draft.  Some of the names may not be there, but I think there are solid options available at each selection to make this mock somewhat realistic.

So, what do you think, would you be happy with a first four rounds looking something like this: Von Miller, Christian Ponder, Christian Ballard, James Carpenter, Kelvin Sheppard, and Virgil Green?

I am still very torn about the QB situation.  Do we draft one in the first round?  Do we draft one in the second round?  Do we trade back up into the first round to make sure we get the QB we want?  I am so afraid that we'll draft the wrong QB and one that comes after him will turn into a franchise QB while our selection will be a complete bust. 

I am also afraid that we won't draft a QB and one or more that we pass on become a franchise QB.  So that got me thinking, what is my biggest fear?  That we don't select a QB that ends up becoming a franchise QB?  Or that we do select a QB that ends up being a bust and missing out on the right QB or a defensive player that becomes a stud. 

Normally, I am gambler and would roll the dice on a QB if OBD has a high confidence that will become a franchise QB.  But with the deep quality of defensive talent in this draft, and our defense in dire need of defensive talent, I am not sure if the risk is worth the reward. 

So, the poll, what is your biggest fear? 

Let's say we nab Von Miller with our pick at #3.  Then, Cameron Jordan starts to slip a little further than expected.  He is still on the board at pick 17.  If you are OBD, would you start looking to package our 2nd and 3rd rounders to move back into the first round to get Jordan?  With our 2nd and 3rd rounders, according to the value chart, we could get back up into the first round somewhere around pick #20.  While we certainly can't afford to give up draft picks, I for one, would have no problem sacrificing our 3rd rounder (and possibly a later pick too) in order to move back up and acquire Jordan.

I know that it isn't super likely that Jordan will slide that far.  But a lot of the mocks I've seen have him being selected in the 15-20 range.  So it isn't completely out of the realm of possibility that he slides far enough for us to grab him.  And I would be super excited if we came out of the first round with Von Miller AND Cameron Jordan.  I think that would be worth sacrificing our 3rd rounder.

Ideally, we somehow are able to move down from #3 to #5 with Arizona grabbing Gabbert.  Then we could still get Miller at #5 and if we'd have even more ammo to move up to get Jordan without losing our 3rd round pick.  Can you imagine the impact to our defense adding Miller and Jordan? 

I am still torn about drafting or not drafting a QB this year.  I would love to find our franchise QB but I am not sure if I want to take the risk when we could get two very low risk, high upside, impact players with our first two picks.  However, IF we are going to take a QB this year, I think we'd be better off taking that QB with our first pick.  Along the lines of Brian's post today, I definitely believe there will be a run of QB's towards the end of the first round.  This helps us tremendously if we have already drafted a QB with our first pick.  Because if we use #3 on a QB, then if that run of QBs happens in the first round, it will help a really high quality player fall into our laps with our second round pick.  It also could increase the value of our second round pick as teams that missed out on a QB in the first round, might be willing to offer up something to move into our spot in the second to get a QB.

If we don't get that QB with our first rounder, then we run the risk of having to probably trade up into the first round to get the QB that we want.  So not only does that increase the risk that we don't get the QB we want, but it also costs us valuable draft picks that we can't afford to lose. 

Or, we just skip the QB this year.  We could possibly have suitors for Gabbert at #3 that could allow us to stockpile some picks with a trade down.  Or, at worst case, we take a stud defensive player at 3 and then the run on QBs allows us to get another stud player (possibly a Cameron Heyward or  a Sherrod) that falls due to the run on QBs. 

Ideally, the run on QBs could result in a fantastic, Ron from NM situation.  Where we are able to trade down a few spots in the 1st round for someone wanting Gabbert.  Then we possibly have the chance to trade down a few spots in the 2nd to some team that is trying to get one of the last QBs available.  That scenario could leave us with a first, two seconds and two thirds (plus the two fourths we already have) in a draft that I think is weak at the top but pretty deep in talent.  That would be a really nice way to get a huge influx of talent to a team that desperately needs it.

I really think that ultimately, Carolina will select Cam Newton and Denver will take Marcel Dareus.  I think Dareus is the big fan favorite as our selection right now.  So, assuming this scenario happens and he's not available to us, and we don't trade down (or up for that matter), who would you select under that scenario?  I don't want you to tell me who you think we'll select, but who you'd like OBD to pick.

Poll

Assuming we don't make a trade and Carolina selects Cam Newton and Denver takes Dareus (which I strongly believe will happen), who would you take at #3.

8%

DaQuan Bowers

23 votes

32%

Patrick Peterson

92 votes

15%

Blaine Gabbert

43 votes

1%

Robert Quinn

4 votes

25%

Von Miller

73 votes

10%

Nick Fairley

31 votes

1%

AJ Green

5 votes

0%

Julio Jones

2 votes

3%

Cameron Jordan

11 votes

0%

Other (please specify below)

2 votes

286 votes | Poll has closed

Okay, I am channeling my inner "Ron from NM" with this post.  His recent trade speculation really got me thinking.  IF OBD does not want Gabbert or Newton or if they are not there when we pick, then I think OBD should do everything in their power to trade down and acquire more picks.  Here is my rationale:

If they don't believe they can get a franchise QB at 3, then I just don't see any one player that stands out to me as a prospect out of this group of 9 players:

Bowers, Miller, Quinn, Peterson, Dareus, Jordan, Fairley, Watt or Aldon Smith

I think they are all tremendously talented players and I believe any one of them could end up being the best of that group.  If we can assume that Gabbert, Newton and either AJ Green or Julio Jones will go top 10, then that means we could trade down as far as pick #12 and be assured of selecting a player from that group of 9 players. 

Personally, I'd be excited if any of those 9 guys were our first round pick this year, but I'd be even MORE excited if we selected one of them AND had an extra 2nd round pick (and possibly more) to show for it.

Now, I highly doubt Nix will trade down at all.  Heck, he made each pick so quick last year that he didn't even leave time for the phone to ring with a trade offer.  And I am sure that Nix has a major preference on getting one of those players and won't want to risk losing them.

But that is where we've screwed up in the draft for so long and why Belichick always does so well.  He won't fall in love with a player, if he can add extra picks and pick up a player that is very similar in skills, then he will pull the trigger. 

So, IF OBD does not want Newton or Gabbert, and IF they don't think one of those 9 players is head and shoulders above the rest, and IF we get a reasonable offer to trade down, then I think they'd be crazy not to pull the trigger and grab some extra picks.

I emailed Wes Bunting from National Football Post earlier this week.  I sent him an email regarding Ponder and if he had enough arm to be successful in Buffalo.  Wes said he didn't think Ponder was a good fit for us and said Kaepernick would be a better fit.  That is a pretty telling statement to me because Bunting is a HUGE Ponder supporter.  He said he's the only QB that he'd go to bat for in this draft. 

I am not saying that Wes has all the answers, but I think he's pretty respectable in his scouting knowledge. 

I swear, I have never been this confused.  I was on the Newton/Gabbert bandwagon, jumped off and onto the 'no QB' bandwagon.  I was just starting to sit on the Ponder bandwagon, and now I don't know where to go.

Brian, why don't you just tell me who OBD is going to take so I can stop thinking about this and get on with my life?!

As I posted recently, I am off the Gabbert/Newton bandwagon with our #3 pick.  And in that post, I also stated that I didn't think we should take a QB in later rounds.  My rationale was that we need a franchise QB, and I just didn't think we could find that after the first round.

A lot of mocks have us taking Ponder in the second round.  I have been very against this pick because I just don't think he has the arm strength to be a franchise QB (at least not in Buffalo's elements).  I watched several of his games this year and the Senior Bowl, and I am of the opinion that Ponder might have the upside to be an excellent QB in a West Coast offense where arm strength isn't as big of an issue. 

Most of the 'experts' believe that Ponder is the most polished, NFL ready QB in the draft this year.  After his pro day today, some of the experts said that his arm strength was 'more than adequate'.  IF, Ponder truly does have enough arm to throw through the elements in Buffalo, that would definitely change my opinion on selecting him in the second round.  I definitely think he has the footwork, leadership qualities, athletic ability and intangibles to be a franchise QB.  But I question the arm strength.

So my question is going out to all you draft gurus....what is your analysis of Ponder's arm strength.  Is it good enough to give him a chance to be a franchise QB given the weather conditions he'd have to play in? 

 

I’ve been a pretty big proponent of OBD taking Newton or Gabbert with our #3 pick because I think our need for a franchise QB is so great.  And those two QBs have tremendous raw abilities that certainly could provide us with a franchise QB if they develop properly.  But, after losing a lot of sleep trying to weigh the risk/reward of taking such a big chance with our #3 pick, I think I’ve decided that we should pass on the QB in round 1.  Here is my rationale:

 

1.      I think the risk of taking a QB and him being a bust outweighs the reward of them becoming a franchise QB.  I don’t see either Newton or Gabbert being of the same caliber as recent top 3 QB picks like Bradford, Stafford and Ryan.  While Newton and Gabbert may have higher ceilings than those three QBs, I think their bust factor is significantly higher. 

2.      Similar QBs to Newton and Gabbert typically go in the middle of the first round.  Flacco and Freeman come to mind as guys with amazing tools but with a high ‘bust factor’.  However, the risk of taking those guys was dramatically reduced due to where they were picked.  Having the #17 or 18 pick bust isn’t nearly as damaging to an organization as having the #3 pick bust.  So I just don’t think #3 is the right spot to take a risky QB.

3.      Along the same lines as #2, I believe we can get a “can’t miss” player with our #3 pick.  I believe guys like Dareus, Miller and Peterson are almost sure things.  Even if they don’t become elite players, I can’t see them being busts.  They are just too talented and played at too high a level in the major conferences to be complete busts in the NFL (barring injury).  If we had the #17 pick this year and a choice between guys like Kerrigan, Heyward, Clayborn, Houston, etc., then I’d roll the dice on a QB.  Because those other guys carry a much higher ‘bust factor’ than the options we’ll have at #3.

4.      We just have too many holes to fill.  The Jets could take a chance on Sanchez (who I believe had a high bust factor coming out) at #6 because they didn’t have numerous other gaping holes to fill.  They are trying to fill in the final pieces of the puzzle and could take a chance on finding that franchise QB.  If he busts, it will hurt them, but not as bad as it would hurt a team like the Bills.  If we take a QB at #3 and he busts, not only does that still leave us with a gaping hole at QB, but it leaves us with a gaping hole at OLB, DE, CB or whatever position we could have filled with a “can’t miss” prospect at #3.

 

That being said, I really think we should NOT take the risk of grabbing a QB at #3.  If they want to trade back into the middle of the 1st round and grab one, then that is a different story.  Or if one of them slides into the teens, then try to move up to grab one of them.  But I don’t think we are in a position to take such a gamble with our #3 pick.  Let’s get the ‘sure thing’ this year.

 

That being said, I don’t even know if I’d take a QB in the later rounds either.  Unless they believe a Ponder, Mallett, Kaepernick, etc. can be a franchise QB, then DO NOT take them with our later picks.  If OBD believes the only two possible franchise QBs are Newton and Gabbert, then don’t pick any QB.  Let’s use those picks to plug as many holes as possible this year.  Because we can still get an IMPACT player at #34.  So don’t pass on the impact player for a guy that you don’t feel can be a franchise QB.

 

If we can find some young talent this year to provide a pass rush, help us improve against the run, a solid right tackle and a CB for the future, then I believe we will have the nucleus of a championship team.  A team that will still need a franchise QB, but a team that can be a consistent winner with an above average QB until we find the franchise guy.

O.J. Atogwe's deal with the Washington Redskins was five years and $26 million. That's roughly $5 million per year for a safety that has far outproduced Buffalo Bills free agent Donte Whitner. GM Buddy Nix has already said that Whitner being a Bill next year is "up to Donte". That seems to insinuate that Whitner is asking for more money than the Bills think is fair.

It would seem to me that this would set the top end of the spectrum for a Whitner contract. I can't believe he'd expect to command more than Atogwe. If Whitner could be had for slightly less than $5 million per year, maybe a deal can get done. I am not a huge Whitner fan, but I am not one that thinks we are better off without him, either. It makes sense to bring him back on a fair deal.