SBNation.com User Blog: CBrey

Welcome to the show, Gilbert Melendez - but how good are you?

CBrey — Sun, 24 Mar 2013 02:08:22 -0000

Gilbert Melendez (21-2 and winner of his last 7) is challenging for the UFC Lightweight title Saturday on a high profile, nationally broadcast card - and realistically one win away (plus a Jose Aldo victory this summer) from a rare UFC 'superfight'. He's also ranked the consensus #2 LW in the world, but still a 2-1 underdog. I don't know if the distance is really that great between Ben Henderson and rest of the 155'ers in the world, so I spent some time looking at Melendez's past fights and history in San Jose.

Here's what he's got:

Most championship fights in the Strikeforce history (10)
Most successful title defenses in the Strikeforce history (6)
Most consecutive title defenses in the Strikeforce history (4)
Most wins in the Strikeforce history (11)
First WEC Lightweight Champion

With Strikeforce officially closed for business, MMA fans are lucky to see a new crop of fighters migrate to the UFC. The WEC has clearly offered some talent (looking at you Jose Aldo and Ben Henderson), and it's exciting to speculate similar heights for incoming Strikeforce fighters. Daniel Cormier is interesting since he'll end up filling out a thin Heavyweight division or possibly dropping weight to challenge a dominant champion in Jon Jones. Gilbert Melendez is entering a completely different situation in that his division is arguably the deepest in all of MMA, and most seem to agree he'll be a big fish swimming into a much bigger pond. Ok, fine - let's compare the competition's competition then:

Opponent strength (measured only up until their match with said fighter) (multiple meetings counted only with most recent rematch):

Gilbert Melendez's Opposition - 258-76 (334 total fights) 77.25% win percentage

Ben Henderson's Opposition - 173-55 (228 total) 75.88% win percentage

Jose Aldo's Opposition - 218-64 (282 total) 77.73% win percentage

Frankie Edgar's Opposition - 169-27 (196 total) 86.22% win percentage (I was surprised, but Maynard's, Aldo's and Sherk's records really make the difference here)

It's clear to me that Melendez has faced at the very least, 'adequate' opponents. I don't think his past fights were easy by any means, although it can always be argued that longtime Strikeforce fighters can tend to avoid the world's best in their weight class. Let's look at his toughest contests and best wins:

Josh Thompson (twice), Shinya Aoki, Clay Guida and Tatsuya Kawajiri (twice). Fun fact: Since 2002 Kawajiri has only lost to Melendez, Aoki, Eddie Alvarez and Takanori Gomi despite having 31 fights.

This is an aside but I suggest watching Melendez vs Guida. It really seems to be Melendez's coming-out party as he wins the Strikeforce LW Belt in an entertaining brawl. Here, I'll save you some Googling time:

Since he's on the same card, and many opinions about Melendez are being based off this specific fight, I'll just leave his rubber match with Josh Thomson here as well:

Melendez has fought in California 14 times - 9 of those being at the HP Pavillion in San Jose. If you didn't know - that's exactly where Saturday's card is being held. He's won 8 of those 9 matches, the sole loss being a decision to Josh Thomson. Ben Henderson has fought 4 times in California - never in San Jose. I suppose this FOX event will be the definition of 'home field advantage', if you believe such a thing exists in MMA. I'd have to think that fighting almost 40% of the time in the same place has to make things a tad easier when stepping into the spotlight.

He's the new guy, he's the challenger and he's the mostly unknown underdog. However, after looking a bit closer it seems that the spotlight is coming to Gilbert, and not the other way around.

Here's what he's got:

Most championship fights in the Strikeforce history (10)
Most successful title defenses in the Strikeforce history (6)
Most consecutive title defenses in the Strikeforce history (4)
Most wins in the Strikeforce history (11)
First WEC Lightweight Champion

Opponent strength (measured only up until their match with said fighter) (multiple meetings counted only with most recent rematch):

Gilbert Melendez's Opposition - 258-76 (334 total fights) 77.25% win percentage

Ben Henderson's Opposition - 173-55 (228 total) 75.88% win percentage

Jose Aldo's Opposition - 218-64 (282 total) 77.73% win percentage

Frankie Edgar's Opposition - 169-27 (196 total) 86.22% win percentage (I was surprised, but Maynard's, Aldo's and Sherk's records really make the difference here)

Josh Thompson (twice), Shinya Aoki, Clay Guida and Tatsuya Kawajiri (twice). Fun fact: Since 2002 Kawajiri has only lost to Melendez, Aoki, Eddie Alvarez and Takanori Gomi despite having 31 fights.

Since he's on the same card, and many opinions about Melendez are being based off this specific fight, I'll just leave his rubber match with Josh Thomson here as well:

He's the new guy, he's the challenger and he's the mostly unknown underdog. However, after looking a bit closer it seems that the spotlight is coming to Gilbert, and not the other way around.

How Edgar's Performance Compares to Aldo's Previous Title Challengers - Stats/Brief Analysis

CBrey — Mon, 04 Feb 2013 02:26:52 -0000

"You can only really judge yourself in comparison to other people. How bad you are, but you're not as bad as someone else. So it's degrees of losing." - John Cusack

Coming out of Frankie Edgar's performance Saturday against Jose Aldo at UFC 156, my first thought was: 'that's gotta be the farthest anyone has pushed Aldo. That has to be the best performance of any Zuffa featherweight challenger to date.' I thought the fight was close, but more so I just thought the attack that Edgar put on display was beyond laudable, and something Edgar fans have pretty much come to expect every time he competes. My curiosity lead to some research, so here are the numbers:

All data is sourced from FightMetric and Sherdog's Fight Finder, and the fights under question include all title fights including Jose Aldo under Zuffa organization (WEC and UFC).

Mike Brown: 35% striking with 56 total strike attempts. 0-4 on Takedowns. (Aldo 52% Striking)

Urijah Faber: 18% striking with 119 total strike attempts. 0-9 on Takedowns. (Aldo 75% Striking)

Manny Gamburyan: 27% Striking with 30 total strike attempts. 0-3 on Takedowns. (Aldo 69% Striking)

Mark Hominick: 39% Striking with 274 total strike attempts. 1-2 on Takedowns (plus 1 guard pass) (Aldo 44% Striking)

Kenny Florian: 31% Striking with 165 total strike attempts. 1-19 on Takedowns (Aldo 44% Striking)

Chad Mendes: 57% Striking with 28 total strike attempts. 0-7 on Takedowns (Aldo 48% Striking)

Frankie Edgar: 22% Striking with 275 total strike attempts. 2-11 on Takedowns (1 being a slam) (Aldo 30% Striking)

The numbers tell me that this has been a pretty solid title run, but they also really clearly show that Frankie Edgar had by far the best performance out of all the challengers. Edgar is hard to hit and (so far) impossible to finish - and this is made obvious yet again looking at Aldo's offensive number - 30%. He was in the cage the exact same amount of time against Urijah Faber as he was with Edgar and had more than double the success rate with his strikes then - that's amazing.

I'm not one for predictions, so I won't try to plan out the divisions (besides, there are other Elbowers who can do that way better than I - See: http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2013/2/3/3948232/ufc-156-results-fights-aldo-overeem-edgar and http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2013/2/3/3946840/the-case-against-aldo-vs-pettis )

I'll leave you with some comparison power leg kick stats that further prove Frankie Edgar is an awesome Featherweight - because we all of course know that leg kicks don't win fights:

Aldo vs Faber - 25 to 0

Aldo vs Hominick - 18 to 1

Aldo vs Florian - 8 to 7

Aldo vs Edgar - 9 to 12