There was a lot of frustration yesterday after the Pirates dropped a winnable game in Chicago. But kind of lost in all that was that the Pirates still took 2 of 3 from the Cubbies, winning their 7th road series of the year, and as Jennifer Langosh (I think) pointed out, matching their total from 2009 AND 2010.

I thought we should take a quick minute and look at where the Bucs stand at the end of May 2011 compared to this time last year.

2010 Record on May 30**: 20-31

2011 Record on May 30: 24-27

A clear improvement. Not drastic, but an improvement nonetheless.

Run Diff. 2010: -130

Run Diff. 2011: -7

So far, the Bucs have scored about 25 more runs, and given up about 100 less. After last year's abysmal pitching, there was really only one way to go, but this is better than I think anyone expected. Surely, not all the pitching will keep it up, but Paul Maholm, Charlie Morton, and Kevin Correia seem locked in for the time being, and McDonald is showing signs of finally rounding into form. The bullpen, aside from a few hiccups has been excellent.

Further, despite a week or so of fairly anemic offense, and massive slumps at one time or another already from each of the "Core Four," the offense has scored more runs.

ERA Pre-ASG Break 2010 (couldn't narrow it down further): 5.10 (29th in MLB)

ERA through May 29, 2011: 3.47 (10th in MLB)

xFIP 2010 (full year): 4.35 (last MLB)

xFIP 2010: 3.70 (12th)

The Pirates are clearly pitching better this year, and even with the early-season "lucky" wins, where Bucs pitchers walked a bunch of guys, while striking out none, they're not out-pitching their xFIP by too much, so it  doesn't seem too fluky.

BA through ASG Break 2010: .235 (last in MLB)

2011 BA: .237 (27th in MLB)

OPS through ASG Break 2010: .658 (28th in MLB)

2011 OPS: .671 (24th in MLB)

The offense, as the runs scored improvement would suggest, has improved just incrementally, but I think there's reason to expect further improvement: I haven't checked, but the Wood/Alvarez combo at 3rd has to be by far the worst line among Third Baseman this year...but Pedro Alvarez almost can't play worse when he gets back, and in fact, with some time to work on mechanics and get in a better mindset, I expect Pedro to have a big second half.

Andrew McCutchen, Jose Tabata, and Neil Walker have all gone through big slumps in the first two months. Cutch has been digging out of his and his numbers are improving greatly, while Tabata, after a hot first week or two, seems to be rounding back into form after an ice cold month. Walker started off scorching and has come back to earth. His slump seems like a regression to the mean, more so than usual, but he'll end the season with a bit better rates stats than what he's got now.

The rest of the hitters are going to be wildcards. Garrett Jones has cooled, but should turn in a decent and valuable season thanks to the platoon (except his platoon mate, Matt Diaz can't hit anything). Lyle Overbay had a good series in Chicago, and if he can continue to provide even a little power, that will help.

Bottom line though: The Pirates don't have a complete offense. They have four guys, with a couple power platoon pieces (Jones and Doumit). Still, they've improved, and that's heartening.

Finally, yes, the Pirates strike out a ton, but they also walk a ton. They're seventh in the league in walks, and for a young team, that's even more great. It shows they're learning patience and the strike zone and grinding out pitchers. As they work on this, I'd look for that K rate to drop as well. I am REALLY happy with the Pirates plate eye and discipline on the whole.

One more thing and I'll stop.

2010 Full season UZR: -8.5 (Last in MLB)

2011 UZR: 5.6 (10th in MLB)

2010 Full Season Defensive Efficiency: .689 (Last in MLB)

2011 Def Efficiency: .721 (6th in MLB

2010 Full Season Fielding Percentage: .979 (last in MLB)

2011 Fielding Percentage: .983 (17th in MLB)

I don't care much about Fielding Percentage, but I put here for those that do, because I know there's a lot of controversy around advanced defensive metrics. Still, so far, the Bucs have turned what was (by literally any measure) the worst defense in baseball into a top-ten defensive team.

Which, combined with the much improved pitching, and slightly better hitting, has made a marked improvement on the team.

The record isn't leaps and bounds better, but it's better, and the run differential is MUCH better, so maybe more of those 1 and 2 run games will fall the Pirates way as the season goes on.

Given the current record, the current run differential, the current pitching and fielding, and a offense projected to be a little better the rest of the way, I actually think .500 is very much within reach.....

....Of course, there's a ton of baseball still to played, and the Pirates have already had some struggles. But for all the frustrating things that the Pirates do, I think the above shows there's a lot to be happy/optimistic about.

UPDATE: As "Bobby" alluded to in the comments, a lot of people aren't too concerned (or are too concerned, depending on who you talk to) with a .500 season. I'm not overly concerned about a .500 season in the sense that the Pirates shouldn't be shooting for just a .500 season and make trade, free agent, and other personnel decisions with that in mind. They should be playing for future, winning, championship baseball teams.

That being said, I'd love a .500 season for obvious reasons, and the fact that, so far, they've got a good shot without diverting from the long-term plan is heartening.

**UZR, xFIP from Fangraphs.com, Defensive Efficiency from Baseball Prospectus, and all other stats from ESPN. The links below can get you started. Sort and adjust from there.

http://www.fangraphs.com/teams.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&type=1&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011

http://www.fangraphs.com/teams.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&type=0&season=2010&month=0&season1=2010

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=138191

Somewhat lost among the hot starts of the Kansas City Royals and the Baltimore Orioles, as well as the Red Sox's and Rays' early-season trip to the morgue, has been the surprising start of the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Buccos will play their home opener tomorrow at 4-2, good for second in the NL Central...and they've done it all on the road, where they mustered a historically bad 17 wins last year. So what to make of it?

Continue reading this post »

1.

Half a league, half a league,
Half a league onward,
All in the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
"Forward, the Light Brigade!
"Charge for the guns!" he said:
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.

2.

"Forward, the Light Brigade!"
Was there a man dismay'd?
Not tho' the soldier knew
Someone had blunder'd:
Theirs not to make reply,
Theirs not to reason why,
Theirs but to do and die:
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.

3.

Cannon to right of them,
Cannon to left of them,
Cannon in front of them
Volley'd and thunder'd;
Storm'd at with shot and shell,
Boldly they rode and well,
Into the jaws of Death,
Into the mouth of Hell
Rode the six hundred.

4.

Flash'd all their sabres bare,
Flash'd as they turn'd in air,
Sabring the gunners there,
Charging an army, while
All the world wonder'd:
Plunged in the battery-smoke
Right thro' the line they broke;
Cossack and Russian
Reel'd from the sabre stroke
Shatter'd and sunder'd.
Then they rode back, but not
Not the six hundred.

5.

Cannon to right of them,
Cannon to left of them,
Cannon behind them
Volley'd and thunder'd;
Storm'd at with shot and shell,
While horse and hero fell,
They that had fought so well
Came thro' the jaws of Death
Back from the mouth of Hell,
All that was left of them,
Left of six hundred.

6.

When can their glory fade?
O the wild charge they made!
All the world wondered.
Honor the charge they made,
Honor the Light Brigade,
Noble six hundred.

There's a lot of talk this time of year about next year's lineup. Understandably so. There are a lot of interesting questions and many different scenarios. But one guy who is left out is Andy LaRoche. And it should be that way. Even if he was playing passably, there's no way at this point that he cracks the starting lineup with Walker and Alvarez manning his two positions.

The only way I could see him as a starter is if the Bucs move Walker to third and Alvarez to first, bumping Garrett Jones to a RF/1B, platoon/backup deal, and then LaRoche could slide to second, that is, of course, barring bringing anyone coming in from outside the org.

2009: .258/.330./.401

2010:  .209/.271/.281

What happened? Last year was LaRoche's first full season. He had a WAR of 2.6 and a 3.24 wOBA and UZR/150 had him at 5.1. Further, while not showing great on-base ability, he registered 50 BB to only 84 Ks. His OPS of .731 was certainly not world-beating, but for his first year playing full time, it was promising. After rising as a highly touted prospect, this seemed like the next step on his way to being at least a GOOD MLB player. Then this year.

His OPS is .551. His ISO is HALF of what it was last year. He's a -0.7 WAR in just 250 PAs and his UZR/150 is -5.6 (though we can chalk up much of his fielding numbers for the last couple years to the failings of the stat itself.)

Looking at his batted ball rates (like all these stats, from Fangraphs), his Line Drive % is 17.5 (same as last year), Fly Ball % 32.5 (just a bit below last year), and Ground Ball % is 50.0 (just a bit above last year). His Infield Fly Ball Rate is bad at 17.5%, but it in 2009 it was 14.5% (though in double the ABs).

He's been unlucky with a .241 BABIP compared to last year's .286, but a decent chunk of that could be accounted for by those IFFBs.

Still the sheer lack of power (evidenced by the plummeting ISO and the rise in IFFBs) is certainly outside the normal amount of variation when you consider LaRoche's history in both the minors and Majors. It just makes me wonder whether he has a lingering injury, perhaps his back problem was this or year or an inflammation of his knee injury last year, because this type of drop-off is kind of shocking.

Reading through the comments on DG Lewis's excellent FanPost I was struck by something that "Tom Hill" said while defending his position that he would like to see Mario get a shot at owning the Pirates. I don't care to see this, but it's beside the point of this post.

Continue reading this post »

Maybe I'm just being naive and hoping too much, but I don't think it's too much of a stretch to expect Charlie Morton to become a serviceable starter for the Pirates. Not an ace, but maybe a three-guy. All stats below are from Fangraphs.com

Continue reading this post »

According to Tim Grimes of Blog Red Machine, the Reds are moving some pitchers around. Mike Leake is about at his innings limit and so he's being moved to the bullpen. This sets off a bit of a chain reaction, plus I guess they signed one of their picks to a Major League deal and so they have to put him on the 40-man roster. Anyway, long story short, Micah Owings is the odd man out here.

So, do you think he's worth a flyer? I haven't actually decided myself. The guy has a ton of talent, but he has struggled his whole career, and he's not exactly young (or old though) anymore.

Still, he maintains a K rate of 9.45 this year. His walk rate is extremely high though at well over six.

Would it be worth it to grab him? Just see what he can do. Pop him in a rotation in the Majors or AAA. Maybe even try him out at 1B. Nothing probably would come of it, but there's no denying he has great talent, and it would be a cheap look.

Thoughts?

The Yankees may be fed up with Joba Chamberlain and looking to deal, according to several writers out there the past couple of days. The Pirates should go after him. He has an awful ERA, yes, at 5.79, but his peripherals are still pretty good (as evidenced by his 1.0 WAR).

He has 40K/14BB in about 37 IP. That is good. His xFIP is 3.38 and he has only given up 2 homeruns. Except for ERA, he is right around Evan Meek in terms of his peripherals. Meek is two years older, doesn't throw as hard, and has no chance to crack the rotation. I'm not necessarily saying trade Meek, if fact I'm not, but just for comparison's sake.

Chamberlain would be a great addition to the Bucs fireballing bullpen for the rest of the year, and we could maybe even pitch him in long relief with an eye towards trying the starter route again next season (no need to rush things).

Trade Dotel or Dotel and someone for Chamberlain.

If Meek really is an All-Star then he should be closing anyway. Get him (or Hanrahan if you're too timid to go with Meek right now) in the closer's role. And bring Chamberlain to the Pirates. He is not nearly as bad as his ERA or the Yankees and the New York Media make him out to be. In fact, he's still quite good.

Here we are in the midst of the 18th-straight losing season. Things have been bad this year. Lots of crushing loses, whether they be 20-0 or 6-5. There have been inept performances on the mound, behind the plate, at the plate, and on the basepaths....and yet, many of us are finding reasons to hope (I know I am). Cutch (even with his recent slump) has been quite good. Until this Brewers series, the bullpen has been outstanding. Alvarez and Tabata are giving reasons for optimism (and that's basically all we can hope for--Greg Jeffries-type performances are rare and usually fleeting--I'd take the slow, growing-pains-filled progression any day). And, despite some unfortunate injuries in the minors, our recent trades and drafts have done well to at least start restocking what had basically been an empty farm system.

That being said (my opinion, that is), there are a lot of people calling for the management team to be fired and for Nutting to sell the team. On the one hand, I think that's ludicrous because I personally feel that the plan is a good one, and for the first time since the early 90s there is actually a plan. On the other hand, I do see the frustration because this type of plan necessitates time and suffering through more losing before the climb up begins (and with so many contigencies, the climb up COULD never happen in this plan).

Nutting's not going to sell, BUT, here's my question to you all: "What is the alternate plan?"

I am asking this out of genuine curiosity and in the spirit of good discussion, not to be snarky or to be a troll magnet. For those of you who want Huntington and Coonely fired and Nutting to sell, what is the plan you'd like to see be enacted? In what areas would it be better than the current one? In what ways worse? What are the logistics?

Basically, if they say, "Screw it. We're starting over." Tomorrow. What do you think is the best course of action? I'm interested to hear your thoughts.

The venerable Bob Smizik had a nice little post on his blog today about Rafael Soriano, and how the Rays got him for Jesse Chavez.

He says, after some praise of Soriano,

The Atlanta Braves traded Soriano to Tampa this off-season in exchange for Jesse Chavez. That’s the same Chavez the Pirates sent to Tampa a month earlier for Aki Iwamura. How's that for talent evaluation:  For Chavez, the Pirates got Iwamura and the Rays got one of the best closers in baseball.

Can someone please stop this man? Honestly. Yes, the Iwamura experiment has been a disaster, but at the time this looked like a good trade, and I didn't here Smizik yelling and screaming that Bucs should've traded Chavez for Soriano.

As for the talent evaluation part...I think it's clear that AI has/had a decent amount of talent, for whatever reason (injury, regression, i dunno) it hasn't shown in PGH. Further, a good talent evaluator will tell you that serviceable, even quite good, closers are a dime a dozen. Dotel, for instance, has done just fine.

An above average (or even average) 2B is much more valuable than a good closer. To bash on deals like this in hindsight is petty and counterproductive. I don't know why I continue to read Smizik. I need to stop.

Hey there. Thanks again for all your help with what to watch for/ expect from the Wilmington Blue Rocks. I appreciate it, and I plan on coming back here with some first-hand thoughts on the team (and some of the Royals future) now and again as the season goes on.

On another note. I just posted our Royals 2010 Preview on the FireRickReilly site. http://firerickreilly.com/2010/03/09/the-firerickreilly-2010-preview-kansas-city-royals/ 

Let me know what you think. Tell me if I got it all wrong, or partly wrong. Or whatever. Let me know too if you don't care in the least and I never should have let you know about it.

Tapps

http://firerickreilly.com

firerickreilly@gmail.com

Hey all, I'm a Pirates fan...so I feel your pain. I live in Wilmington, DE...moved in September so this our first summer here. Who are the players to watch on this team (if any)? I know it's only single A ball, so maybe they're a bunch of unknowns...but my son and I plan on going to a bunch of games this. Anyone to look out for? Thanks for any feedback.