SB Nation User Blog: Cairo

31 and counting

Cairo — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 19:47:51 -0000

31 and counting

Last week marked the eighth time a Paterno-coached team was ranked in the AP poll for 31 consecutive weeks.

Also, this will be the 31st time Paterno will have coached a team that will appear in the final AP poll.

Hate Week: EVERYONE ELSE! WITH CHARTS!

Cairo — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 18:02:16 -0000

BSD - Bumped. Cuz, like, duh...

Edit: The file can be downloaded here. Double edit: I forgot to re-randomize Okla St.'s RNvariable after testing something. Just copy and paste one of the random number generators in cell P12.

The regular season is done. Penn State stands at 10-2 and is the college football equivalent of a "bubble team." Three questions remain:

1) What are the chances of us going to a BCS game?

2) Who are our likely opponents? Who do we have no shot of playing?

3) Who do we hate?

Ladies and gents, I present The Chart of Answers:

The chart in all of its excel precedent/dependent glory. It looks like a plate of hurl.

The Chart of Answers is my attempt to determine the most likely result of the NCAA season from this point on. The entire system is run on the informational theory process of simple entropy. Think of it has flipping dozens of weighted coins dozens of times. Although you can't definitely prove what will happen, you can infer some trends as a result. the trick is in providing the correct "weight" to the coins (or NCAA football teams) to give you the results you believe to be most correct. It's quick, it's dirty, and it's inherently biased, and I'm sure some people smarter than me can provide a better method of figuring this stuff out. I have tried to be as unbiased (a loaded word) as possible and put my best guesses in determining who would be selected after the results of the conference championship games. Keep in mind, this is all IN FUN--I don't intend this as a slight to your program.

The first step is to determine which teams should be studied. Ohio $tate is a certain invitation to the Rose Bowl. The following teams are fighting for the remaining BCS slots as of right now:

Alabama, Florida, Texas, TCU, Cincinnati, Boise State, Georgia Tech, Oregon, Pittsburgh, Oklahoma State, Oregon State, Nebraska, Clemson, Iowa, Penn State.

Of these, all but Iowa and Penn State have games to play between now and the start of bowl season. Virginia Tech and Miami, FL have very slight chances of making the big bowls, but they are on the edge of the Top 14 in the BCS standings right now. I factored them in to the mix in a different way.

The next thing to figure out is how to determine the odds of a team winning all of its games, losing a regular season game, losing a conference game, or losing all of its remaining games. It is important not only if they lose, but when they lose as this has major implications on selection. I think Bleed Blue 'n White has previously referenced this study concerning sports statistics. Fittingly, it is titled, "Use and Abuse of Information in Sports." Don't mind if I do! Their study determined that sports book spreads are one of the best methods of determining the winner of the game overall. I'm not interested in beating the spread, I'm interested in knowing how often a favorite wins the game. Overall, the team listed as the favorite in the spread would be won by the favorite 75% of the time. Also, the greater the spread, the greater the chance the favorite would win. Here's their findings:

	Games won
spread	by favorite
1	52%
1.5	47%
2	55%
2.5	51%
3	62%
3.5	57%
4	63%
4.5	67%
5	69%
5.5	78%
6	65%
6.5	71%
7	73%
8	80%
9	75%
10	74%
> 10	83%

Although there are obvious biases with individual spreads designed to sucker in bettors, it seems like a fairly effective method of "weighting" the chance of a team winning a game. There are spreads available for every game this coming week, so I placed the percent values for this weeks games. I then had to use a bit of creativity to estimated the spreads of the games in the coming weeks.

Team	Opponent	Chance of win	Opponent	Chance of win
Alabama	at Auburn	83%	Florida	50%
Florida	FSU	100%	Alabama	50%
Texas	at Texas A&M	83%	Nebraska	73%
TCU	New Mexico	83%		100%
Cincy	Illinois	100%	at Pitt	52%
Boise State	Nevada	83%	NM State	83%
GA Tech	Georgia	73%	Clemson	73%
Oregon		100%	Oregon St	73%
Pitt	at West Va	47%	Cincinnati	48%
Okla St.	at Oklahoma	73%		100%

These values can be calculated to determine the odds that a team will win. For example, Alabama has an 83% chance of beating Auburn, and a 50% chance of beating Florida.

0.83 * 0.5 = 0.415

They therefore have a 41.5% chance of winning their final two games at Auburn and versus Florida.

You probably noticed the 100% values next to Cincinnati-Illinois and Florida-FSU. The issue is that Florida, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Alabama are the only teams remaining that play each other with major implications to BCS placement. There are so many iterations that even removing two games makes things much much easier. Also, the odds of the Bearcats being affected by a loss to Illinois coupled with a win over Pitt is very small: they're pretty much a lock to the Sugar Bowl unless chaos happened above them and they go to the National Championship game. The odds of Cincinnati beating Pitt, losing to Illinois, Texas losing, and TCU losing are very small. Again, this system isn't perfect. Also, some teams have a 100% chance against Bye Week. Since none of these teams are coached by Charlie Weis, I feel they have what it takes to win against Nobody State.

I formalized the assumptions here:

Assumptions:

Florida will defeat Florida State
Cincinnati will defeat Illinois
If Pitt loses to West Virginia, they will also lose to Cincinnati (also for simplicity)
If both SEC teams have exactly one loss, with Alabama having one loss to Auburn and Florida having one loss to Alabama, both teams will still be ahead of an undefeated Boise State in the BCS standings if Texas, TCU, and Cincinnati also lose. (also for simplicity)
An undefeated Boise State will be selected over a 2-loss Big Ten school in the Fiesta Bowl

These again are not guarantees. I also made an assumption about the wistful leanings of the good ol' boys in the technicolor suits:

Selection chance assumptions between PSU and Iowa only:
Sugar Bowl- 50% PSU, 50% Iowa
Fiesta Bowl- 60% Iowa, 40% PSU
Orange Bowl- 60% PSU, 40% Iowa

Selection chance assumptions between PSU, Iowa, and Oklahoma State:
Fiesta Bowl- 35% Iowa, 35% OSU, 30% PSU

Effect of assumptions (things that weren't factored in the calculations but are noted):

Outlier: A one-loss Pitt team that lost to WVU but defeated Cincinnati may be selected with the 7th-10th pick.
Outlier: Oklahoma State has a small chance of being selected by the Orange Bowl.
Outlier: A 2-loss Big Ten school may be selected over Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl.
Outlier: The calculations assume a 10.5 point favorite has the same odds of winning as a 40 point favorite.
Outlier: No style points.

Then I factored the BCS pecking order:

1 and 2. National Championship: BCS #1 vs. BCS #2

3 and 4. Rose Bowl: Pac-10 Champion (Oregon or Oregon State) vs. Big Ten Champion  (Ohio State)

5. Sugar Bowl Pick #1: Replacement pick for SEC champion (in all circumstances except one)

6. Fiesta Bowl Pick #1: BCS at-large

7 and 8. Orange Bowl: ACC Champion vs. BCS at-large

9. Fiesta Bowl Pick #2: BCS at-large

10. Sugar Bowl Pick #2: BCS at-large

Conferences opponents can't face each other except in the National Championship, and only two teams from each BCS conference can be selected. At large picks are determined by I then ran the exercise several hundred times and tweaked the system until I removed all of the errors--Pitt v. Pitt in the Sugar Bowl and the like. There is still one error: about 2% of the time there are two Big Ten teams selected in the mush of 6th-9th selections. Since Ohio $tate is locked into the Rose Bowl, that would lead to three Big Ten teams in the BCS. I can't resolve it without a circular reference, and that makes my head hurt. These results are thrown out. Otherwise things are pretty gravy.

So, now that everything is fine and dandy, I ran the exercise one hundred times and recorded the results. Here are some highlights:

Here's one of the more common results. Everyone wins except for the loser of the SEC Championship game and Pitt. As a result, the Fiesta Bowl representative against Boise State is determined between PSU, Iowa, and Oklahoma State (30%/35%/35% chance respectively) and PSU has come out with an invite. The SEC Champion and Fiesta Bowl rep shifts, but this matches the projections of many people predicting the BCS games.

Here's a less common scenario where PSU makes it to the Orange Bowl. Texas loses to A&M in the regular season and goes to the Fiesta Bowl, while TCU goes to Pasadena. The Orange Bowl has the 8th overall pick, and would likely choose the Big Ten 10-2 squad over the available Boise State and Cincinnati.

Here's a rare scenario that would bring the downfall of the BCS as we know it. TCU and Cincinnati make it to the National Championship Game. The Sugar Bowl would make the first pick after the Rose Bowl picks Ohio State and Oregon (or would they?) and would have their pick of either SEC school. This would force Alabama to the Fiesta Bowl due to intra-conference conflicts with the SEC and Big XII. There are a couple of iterations where I use a combination of outcomes such as the "Texas/Big Ten team/Va Tech" based on the slotting of teams around it. In this case, it would almost certainly be the Big Ten. This is one of the few scenarios where PSU could go to New Orleans.

This is the death scenario. Also known as the OMGSEC!!! scenario. If this occurred, it would likely mean Florida and Alabama would have just enough points to play a rematch in Pasadena. We see the "Texas/BigTen/VaTech" in the Sugar Bowl slot again. Another possibility for PSU in the Sugar Bowl like last time? No. In this case, that spot would be the #5 pick, which would almost certainly go to Texas. The Big Ten representative is in the Orange Bowl, this time the Iowa Hawkeyes. In spite of all heck breaking lose, there would be no BCS bowl for the Nittany Lions.

I then broke out the results further for non-BCS games. If Iowa makes a BCS bowl, PSU goes to the Capital One Bowl. If neither PSU nor Iowa makes it to a BCS Bowl, there's a 50/50 shot of making the Capital One Bowl or the Outback Bowl.

So, I ran the calcs over 100 times. Here are the tallied results:

PSU in the Capital One Bowl: 48.4%

PSU in the Fiesta Bowl: 23.6%

PSU in the Orange Bowl: 16%

PSU in the Outback Bowl: 11%

PSU in the Sugar Bowl: 1%

and the likely opposition, assuming Ole Miss goes to the Cap One Bowl and Tennessee goes to the Outback:

48.4% Ole Miss

14.0% Georgia Tech

13.0% Boise State

11.0% Tennessee

4.2% Oklahoma State

3.6% Nebraska

2.8% "2nd BCS School" (a catchall for certain rare scenarios: usually Okla State, Virginia Tech, or Oregon/Oregon St.)

2.0% Clemson

1.0% Alabama/Florida

How about some conclusions?

PSU can't play Pitt. There just wouldn't be a credible scenario where they would both be selected by the same bowl.
It appears that PSU can't play TCU. If TCU wins, they're either in the National Championship, or the Orange Bowl against the ACC champion. If TCU loses, no one is going to select a non-BCS school fresh off a loss to New Mexico.
There is no "death" game for PSU's chances. That is, there is no result from now the end of the conference championship season that would eliminate a second Big Ten representative from being selected. That said, it helps most if Texas defeats Nebraska.
Iowa sucks.

Therefore, this exercise as proven that it is statistically possible to hate every remaining team on the schedule ranked above us. QED

This has trended away from the typical hate week format, so I'll close with:

If the BCS system was a West German music act from the late ‘70s/early ‘80s:

It would be Klaus Nomi. Why? because I think this exercise has shown that Lightning will have to Strike for this system to actually work as idealistically planned. For all of the conjectures, this would be a LOT simpler if, ohh... the eight best teams in the BCS rankings managed to play in an eight-team playoff??? We would be left arguing who the 8th/9th best teams in the country are, which are usually a team that has a messup or two on their resume anyways so they have little room to gripe. Also, like Klaus Nomi the BCS is totally ga... gamey.

HATE!

Nittany Anthology Update: Team of the Decade

Cairo — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 16:03:29 -0000

Nittany Anthology Update: Team of the Decade

Don't worry, the site still looks like it's from 1996, but Mr. Anthology has put up his All-PSU Decade team for 2000-2009. A bit early, but it's definitely something to react to.

HATE WEEK: Michigan State!

Cairo — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 22:52:03 -0000

[Hate or go home, kids. - RUTS]

Here it is: the Big One to the Buckeyes/Wolverines Big Two, the most earth-shaking of rivalries, the one that makes the movie "2012" look like a Sunday evening cake walk, the bloody series that puts the "iv" in "rivalry". IT’S LAND GRANT TROPHY WEEK! The regular season hate reaches its apex now, where the storied rivalry between these two schools descends into a maelstrom of pain, passion, and anger. Hate Week Michigan State never ends!

The Breakdown:

WHO

Is Sparty grabbing the statues... uh??? Hmm. So help me, I don’t know where the other hand is about to go, but I’m guessing it’s some sort of "Sword and the Stone" thing.

WHO: The Michigan State Spartans. One of the oldest rivalries in the Big Ten since 1993, the Spartans represent everything we hold dear except the opposite of that. Once again, Michigan State has nothing to play for in this series. Michigan State has faltered after contenting for the Big Ten title last year (how did that 2008 game end up, Sparty?) and now stands at 6-5 in the regular season, and is playing for the chance to represent the Big Ten in the Champs Sports Bowl. Whoopee.

If their coach was a West German music act from the late ‘70s/early ‘80s:

Guess the decade?

Sixth in a six-part series, but be prepared for some postseason hate. Why "Love System" by italo West German group The Twins? Remember MSU head coach Mark Dantonio’s decision to spend two time outs at the end of last year’s game? Well, this is the only thing more LAME than that.

WHAT

WHAT: The Land Grant Trophy. A trophy that was created by the same man who coined the "Little Caesars Pizza Pizza Bowl." That man was MSU coaching legend George Perles. Never heard of him? Me neither--some legend. As it stands, we are the only annual rivalry with a trophy featuring 1970s den shelves. A 2008 move to rechristen it the Abe Lincoln Land Grant trophy faltered, but the effort did end up with the unexpected result of becoming the primary source of inspiration behind the new Northwestern-Illinois "Land of Lincoln" Trophy, which is just a bronze top hat.

Secondary Source of Inspiration for the Land of Lincoln Trophy. Pennsylvania Avenue is worth more.

Although the trophy itself isn’t worthy of this great rivalry, I want to stress that we do not belittle the Land Grant game itself--for this game should mean something more than ourselves. I propose that this series evolve, that we not only represent Penn State in this series, but all Land Grant institutions south and east of Detroit:

BIG PICTURE! What the Land Grant Trophy represents. Suck it, Utah State University!

This has already become a sensation that crosses ten time zones and dozens of land grant institutions. Pictured here is the pandemonium surrounding the PSU-MSU pep rally on Monday at the University of the Virgin Islands. We Are!

We can’t let 'em down. The Land Grant Trophy belongs here in the East!

WHERE

A proud couple standing at ~~Nuremburg in the 1930s~~ Lansing in the 2000s. Seriously, that’s a whacked out statue. Did the ancient Spartans have no floating ribs and have poptarts for abs too?

Source: Scott Stetson Photography, I guess.

WHERE: Lansing. Screw their pretentious, "it’s East Lansing. If you don’t say ‘East Lansing’ you’re clearly an outsider." Whatever--like it’s supposed to embarrass me that I’m not from Michigan? Lansinglansinglansinglansing! You can easily see the State Capitol of Michigan while standing in East Lansing, so it's not like it's a massive mistake. Perhaps MSU students, alumni, and professors are ashamed of the Capitol, ashamed of their state and all it represents. MSU = unamerican? Hate Week reports, you decide.

WHEN

Pretty sure it's on Saturday.

WHEN: So help me I don’t know. Every time I put a time and a channel in one of these posts I get it wrong some how. How about I just say it’s this Saturday? Seems like a safe bet. Since it’s November, it won’t be a night game, so just hit the "Guide" button on your remote and figure it out. I hate the TV networks waffling about on where they put teams until a week or two before the game actually occurs. Let’s make it easy: in my unbiased opinion Penn State should be primetime, everytime.

WHY

JoePa after the 2007 loss. It. IS. ON.

WHY: Everything about this series is irritating. PSU owns the Spartans with a 12-4 overall record, but even in the Dark Years PSU went 4-1 and averaged 38.4 points per game in the series--capped with a 61-7 beatdown where Larry Johnson, Jr. turned the MSU defense into a walking Twitter post. A John L. Smith collapse was as reliable a November event as Thanksgiving falling on a Thursday. After watching the team put up 38+ points, most of us left the game/TV station scratching our heads going, "Where the hell was that all season long?"

Still, you could hardly choose worse years for the remaining three losses to occur. The 1997 loss cost us a berth in a BCS (technically Bowl Alliance) Bowl, the 1999 loss ended the worst season slide since 1914 and put a team that was #2 at the beginning of November in the Alamo Bowl, the 2007 loss was a monumental collapse that sealed He Who Formerly Could Not Be Named's position in the doghouse of Penn State QB lore. Ohhh, that game suuuuucked. It also began the irritating rise of Mark Dantonio, pictured below:

DANTONIKHAAAAAAAAAAN!!!!!

This series has devolved into an endless sequence of beatdowns, occassionally punctuated with a devastating loss. It’s the worst of rhythms as you’re stuck somewhere between a PSU-Temple lopsided speedbump and a quality rivalry. So where are we? Stuck with a mediocre rivalry when an end-of-season game against Pitt or Wisconsin would be ten times as compelling. I hate MSU for being content with mediocrity. I hate Michigan State for never bringing anything to the table but leftovers. I hate Michigan State for making me sleep halfway trhough the game when I want to be entertained, and making me pull out my hair when I just want an easy win. I hate Michigan State for claiming it’s a football school when every November the basketball program is the only thing on everyone’s minds. I like the good-natured fans at Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio State--because deep down I know they want to see us openly weeping at the end of the game. I hate good-natured Michigan State fans because, deep down, it’s just a nice way to spend a Saturday. In short: I hate MSU for just being MSU. HATE! HATE! HATE!

The Hate Don't Stop: INDIANA WEEK

Cairo — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 00:22:57 -0000

So, it's a letdown. Whatev'. Whatever your gripes, I doubt few of you traveled a thousand miles to see only your second game at the Beav in the last five years, then watch a game where the best pressure put on a Buckeye was when the Lion chased around O$U's mascot with a nutcracker during a TV timeout. Guess what? I'm dealing and so can you. Moping is for Sundays and drinking is its cure. I'm throwing a little pre-hate hate at people who think this "is over," whatever that means. I see PSU football on the schedule on Saturday and I know it's one of only three times between now and September 2010 that they're playing. Do you realize how far away September 2010 is from now? We'll start buying flying cars and thinking spandex unitards are a socially acceptable fashion statement by then.

I don't care what it says about us as fans and I don't care about the schedule, because we absolutely, positively, MUST be happy with a 10-win season. We're not delusional like Nebraska in 2003, we're not in denial like Notre Dame fans in 2009, and we're still not mentally challenged like Ohio State fans in everyplace. We ARE the same fans that would have killed for a 10-win season just five years ago. We ARE the same fans that care that our players are representing the University with class. We ARE realizing that these kids are doing us proud and that 10 wins means two more beatdowns in the regular season. We ARE Penn State and that means WE ARE HATE. HATE WEEK INDIANA BEGINS NOW!

The Breakdown:

WHO

Fun fact: Lou Holtz and Benjamin Harrison have the same hair. Probably from the same barber in South Bend.
Source: Indiana Department of Getting a Tourist in the State.

WHO: Indiana. Commonly regarded as "Illinois Little Sister", is a small state, with small dreams, small expectations, and small regard for football. Maybe this is why they have three programs in Ball State, Indiana, and Notre Dame that have collectively won a Hawaii Bowl and a MAC divisional title over the past fifteen years. No one remembers Purdue because Purdue is utterly forgettable. We are looking specifically this week in Bloomington, the home of the Indiana University Hoosiers. Bloomington has a great reputation as a party school, which reminds me of a time back in school when I was on the phone with a friend at Oklahoma State University. We'd had a playful debate a few weeks earlier about which school was a bigger party school and left it at that. This time around, I absently remarked I was going to a party that night and she said, "Cool, what's the occasion?"

I was speechless-truly dumbfounded at the entire concept of the question. I cradled the phone silently for a few moments before flatly saying, "If you have to have an occasion to have a party, then you aren't at a party school."

I know nothing about Indiana as a party school, but if they have occasions, then they are hosts to the biggest, fakest, lamest parties ever. Like a sausage-fest multiplied by a hundred, but with no TV nor beer.

If their coach was a West German music act from the late ‘70s/early ‘80s:

I'll admit, I'm a little sold.
Source: Snippet from the weekly Indiana Football Story.

The fifth in a six-part series. Remember how Tressel recruits from last week? Well, this is what Indiana has to do to get a one-star recruit to come to their program. Head coach Bill Lynch is the one in the middle with the flowing red cape.

WHAT

Boogity Boogity.
Source: The Dark Recesses of my Mind.

WHAT: The Streak. Cue the Lee Corso pics, because it's true: Penn State is batting 1.000 against Indiana all-time. No matter how bad it's gotten, no matter how upsetting our upsets, no matter how much nor how little there was to play for, there is always Indiana who's good for a W. In a goalline stand that Alabama Crimson Tide fans arguably claim is the greatest of all-time, the 2004 Nittany Lions held the Indiana Hoosiers as time expired to win their first Big Ten game of the season and begin their '05 run. Losing now would not only be a monumental embarrassment (heck, even the '04 squad managed it) it would mean an end to the greatest conference streak in the history of life.

WHERE

Not this week. That's a future Indiana "home" game.
Source: IU Athletic Director.

WHERE: In State College, silly.

WHEN

Who am I? Why am I here?

WHEN: After a long hiatus, the game returns to the Big Ten Network for a 12:00pm Eastern Standard Time game. I hate the camerawork in the Big Ten Network. It's always something that's wholly infuriating and there must be enough cameramen and directors to do a competent job shooting a football game. TV is just too compelling a career choice for too many people. I love artsy stuff as much as anyone, but there is a standard formula for shooting the footage of a football game. No variations. This means:

1) Follow the ball.

2) If you don't follow the ball, don't violently shake the camera because you were on the fullback when you should have been following the halfback two yards behind him. The camera shake should only be done when everybody but the offense and the coaching staff is utterly faked out. That's when your re-direction ten yards away should pop the QB stealthily holding the ball, setting up for a Statue of Liberty play to a streaking wide receiver as a Bud Collins-like "Oh my!" is yelped from the announcers booth. That's accidental drama and it's awesome. You just look like an idiot.

3) No "blimp-cam" instant replay shots of a goal line stand by the director. We're trying to see if a ball came out the second before his knee hit the ground, and you've got it on Camera 93 which is conveniently following both the play on the field AND the orbit of the moon. This has happened less often since 2006, but it's still an incomprehensible director's decision.

4) Directors need to cut to a different camera before the cameraman is resetting his shot. Nothing like a slow motion of the the world spinning as the cameraman goes from the endzone shot to a shot of the coach standing on the sideline. I'm not drunk, but I'm not sober either.

WHY

There it is! You knew it would be here somewhere.

Source: Lee Corso Indiana University/USFL Orlando Renegades Hall of Fame.

WHY: Why hate on the Hoosiers? Because Hate can be easy and still be hateful. Because Hate means understanding that Tandon Doss isn't going to roll over and let the Nittany Lions beat the Hoosiers. Because Indiana can watch game film too. Because Penn State has too much to prove that they can play as a team to the end of a hard season. Because losing on Senior Day means its there forever. Because the road to respectability continues upward with defeats against small teams like Indiana. Because we can be the only team ever to go a combined 4-0 against Indiana in a single year of mens basketball and football. Because of Beaver Stadium. Because of tailgates with friends. Because we care. Because we hate!

HATE WEEK: OHIO $TATE

Cairo — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 13:18:40 -0000

It's hate week, it's real, and it's on now.

The Breakdown:

WHO

The Ohio State Way.
Source: Not the NCAA Committee on Infractions, apparently.

WHO: Ohio $tate University, or "The reason all of this Mainstream Media Hate on the Big Ten is Happening University." This team's continued ability to NOT show up against teams with less than three losses has negated any and all of the rest of the Big Ten's success over the past four years. So we didn't pull it out in the Rose Bowl last year, do you really think it would have changed anyone's perception of the conference since the Buckeyes lost to Texas? This team may have fallen to third place in the Big Ten standings, but they are still the alpha dog in this fight. Penn State, Michigan, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Miami, Notre Dame... all of these teams know what it's like to go through a some dark years. Buckeye fans are nervous, they know their team isn't performing up to par, that they might be entering a period of uncertainty. Every downturn starts with a double-whammy: a HORROR loss to a terrible team (Michigan v App State, Penn State v Toledo), and a demolishing loss to a top-rated squad. They had the first shoe drop with the loss to Purdue, but they still lack that game, that 29-5 beatdown to USC that leaves you exposed and weak, that 39-7 beatdown to Oregon that shows Your Way is dated and on its way out. Penn State has the skills to give them that soulcrushing loss that sends them bleary-eyed to Alamo Bowl, wondering what happened to their run to the championship. It's time to give them what they deserve.

If their coach was a West German music act from the late ‘70s/early ‘80s:

Come to Ohio $chtaten!
Source: Home video.

The fourth in a six-part series. Unlike previous editions of ITCWAWGMAFTL70s/E80s, this movie actually features Ohio State Buckeyes coach Jim Tressel. After twenty seconds of intro by a guy in the official "poser rebel" wardrobe of 1978, he shakes the hand of Jim Tressel, decked out in a Buckeye red shirt. Look! No sweater vest! Then, he and future assistant coaches begin to perform their recruiting pitch to a live TV audience. It's a bit difficult to understand, but they essentially discuss their offensive game plan while mimicking one of the many iso plays away from motion that they've run for the past decade. Hey it worked to get Terrell Pryor (and provided the impetus for one of Mike Myers funniest skits), so they must have something here.

WHAT

The The looks up The in thesaurus for The Ohio $tate.
Source: The Internet.

WHAT: The. You know what I'm talking about: you're at home, settling down early in the first quarter to watch Sunday Night Football when the players state their names and the university/high school where they played. Up comes some player who cocks one eyebrow, smirks at the camera, and goes "(name), THE Ohio $tate University." As if we're supposed to be blown back by their use of a definite article. The Ohio $tate University. Thanks. Without the "the" I'd have figured it was one of many potential Ohio $tates. Perhaps you went to Ohio $tate University de Paraguay. Good thing you spelled it out for me, genius.

Here's what you really spelled out: "I'm a conceited idiot, and I think I'm more specialer than you." Congratulations, you sold me!

WHERE

The first image that comes up in a google image search for "Happy Valley." Man, it's changed since I was last there!
Source: Google Images. Perhaps I need to go to Bing.

WHERE: On the Banks of the Mighty Spring Creek. OK, just above it and that old old iron forge thing next to College Ave and Porter Road. This is a home game and is a rare non-crappy 2009 opponent. For once, there is NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST! So we have a big time opponent, a BCS bowl appearance on the line, mild weather, and a good start time. Anything less than a full, crazy, wild crowd in the Best Stadium in the Country (it's on Bleacher Report so it must be true) is impossible. Let's give Turkish Soccer a run for their money. PSU is 5-4 all time at State College in the Penn State-Ohio $tate rivalry and was embarrassed the last time the Buckeyes came to town in a 37-17 loss. This will change.

WHEN

November Sunset and Moonrise at Penn State
Source: http://live.psu.edu/image/23030

WHEN: 3:30pm Eastern on the ABC/ESPN system. Restrictions on night games be damned, this is State College in November. It means the lights will be on, the crowd will be glowing white, and Pryor will be introduced to tall fescue by Jared Odrick. Repeatedly. Which brings me to...

WHY

Tamba Hali and Navorro Bowman celebrate Ohio $tate's Big Ten championship titles in 2005 and 2008.

Source: Ohio Sports Hall of Fame.

WHY: If you have to ask why, then you haven't been following Penn State football long enough. I'll try to bring you up to speed. Why? Because of "four consecutive Big Ten titles". Because 324 happened against Ohio $tate. Because of 1912. Because of the Big 33. Because we're too country. Because 63-14. Because 63 points leaves us wanting 70. Because of the scene. Because of the stakes. Because they bring out the best in us. Because you don't need a Hate Week post to know it's Hate Week. Because its our season. Because we are not normal. Because We Are. Penn State! Hate. Hate! HATE! HATE!

HATE WEEK: Northwestern Wildcats

Cairo — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 02:37:49 -0000

[Bumped for copious amounts of hate. NERRRRRRDS! - RUTS]

The Wolverines have been tossed. It's time for fresh hate to be served. Cold.

The Breakdown:

WHO

Look, even their zoo is pretentious
Source: Northwestern ~~Elephant~~ Wildcat Zoo.

WHO: Northwestern--America's ultimate directional school--is the last team in Penn State's vaunted October Illinois Swing(TM). Northwestern is noted for a long-standing tradition of being in the upper echelon of player graduation rates, ethics, and fairness. This largely explains why they could not compete in the Big Ten throughout the '70s and '80s. The only thing the Big Ten schools at this time tended to copy was Northwestern's pretentiousness and snobbery. It took rock-ribbed Penn Staters to set this whole damned conference straight again. You're welcome.

If their coach was a West German music act from the late ‘70s/early ‘80s:

After all is said and done, it was right for you to run!
Source: CCTV.

The third in a six-part series. Remember the expectations of this season? A team that some Wildcat fans earnestly and reasonably believed could be 7-1 by the Penn State Nittany Lions came to town? With a dominant defense, an efficient quarterback, and favorable schedule, it seemed the Northwestern Wildcats might contend for its first conference championship since 2000. Then came the close scare against the awful Eastern Michigan EMU's, the loss to Syracuse, and a desperate comeback against Indiana last week. Far from dominant, this team is a hairs breadth from being 3-5. Where did this team go?

Simply put, this team is getting fat on preseason glory and not focusing on practicing good, tough, midwestern football. It can be clearly seen in this attached video (also used in 1982 by the Western German group Trio). Fitzgerald spends his time playing the drums at a Chicago pub, letting his players cavort with fans, watching some scary dude on a black and white TV (Hey! He's also in the bar! I need to get his autograff!) passing their time idly by as thOMIGOD SOMEONE JUST STABBED A WAITRESS! WHAT KIND OF TWISTED GERMAN $)%*( IS THIS?!?!?! Admirably, the waitress shakes it off. Hey, it's Chicago. It probably happens regularly on the North or South side. Whatever side is the bad one. I guess they want me to care. Anyway, this is what Pat Fitzgerald thinks is practice. It's a disgrace to the honorable Big Ten.

It was good enough to beat Purdue, tho'. It makes you wonder what goes on during Danny Hope's practice sessions.

WHAT

Apparently marketing like this moved products in the '60s. I'll take two, please!
Source: Sports Illustrated Vault: the treasure trove of now-offensive marketing.

WHAT: Not sucking. PSU stands at 7-1 with its one loss against the unanimous #1 choice of the robots: The Iowa Huskies, errmm, Hawkeyes. No one's looking past Michigan State after its performance last Saturday, so the Nittany Lions remaining four games can be described as "easy-hard-easy-hard." Still, these are the sandwich games that can destroy entire seasons. Penn State has had a heck of a time pulling out of Evanston with a convincing win. Most recently, PSU needed a last minute touchdown pass by MRob to defeat the Wildcats in 2005. A loss in 2003 was only topped by the embarrassment of PSU upsetting Northwestern in 2001. Northwestern the favorite? Dark Years indeed. This should never ever happen again. The only think I hate more than not not sucking is not not not sucking. or something. yeah! HATE ARGHGHGHAATAHAETEHATE!!

WHERE

Tailgating - dat's de Chicago way!
Source: Chicago Deputy Alderman of Northwestern Alumni Relations Office.

WHERE: Chicagoland. Specifically the enclave of Evanston just north of Chicago. I've never understood people's infatuation with Chicago. I have this strange feeling whenever I'm in Chicagoland of being some place other than the USA, like I'm in some sort of lame science fiction movie where America is ruled by an enlightened dictatorship. Everyone who ventures into Chicagoland knows it's ruled by the Honorable Mayor Richard M. Daley, who plasters his face at airports, highway overpasses, park benches, banners, shopping bags--basically everything but urinal cakes (those have Olympic rings on them now). Anyways, it's like he's an Egyptian pharoah or something. I can only imagine when he's out of power a legion of workers will chisel his name out of buildings like it's Aswan in 1600 BC. I will give Chicago credit though: it's totally better than that time in the late '60s when Lincoln, Nebraska was run by a South American junta.

Sell out this stadium or else!
Source: Lincoln Historical Society

Anyways, they play in Ryan Field, formerly Dyche Stadium. Apparently this Ryan guy also got the basketball arena named after him. This guy ponied up a lot of money to improve the athletic facilities at Northwestern. Northwestern. I guess we can think of him like T. Boone Pickens at Oklahoma State, only without the continued basketball excellence and football success.

WHEN

They have so many fans!
Source: Ryan Field.

WHEN: 2:30pm Mountain on ABC or ESPN2. Another thing I hate is missing a good opportunity. I did not realize it until now, but there's no place cheaper for a road game than Northwestern. You can do it in a day. I just checked. If you book in advance, a flight from Pittsburgh to Midway lands at 9:00 am and a United flight takes off from O'Hare at 9:15 pm. Grand total of $133 roundtrip. Plenty of time to take the El to Evanston for a game that starts at 11 or 3:30 and you don't have to get scalped by the Chicago hotels and their fees. Plus it's not like there are major delays at airports on Saturday mornings. Tickets are easy to come by at Northwestern, endzone tickets go for $35. Pack a lunch, grab a Chicago dog for dinner, and spend the rest on Goose Island 312 and a college student could see a Penn State road game for less than $200 plus gas from State College to Pittsburgh. That's a steal--good luck finding a ticket for less than $200 in Columbus. Similar flights and rates can be found throughout most of Big Ten country. We should sell out their stadium. We have no reason not to. I hate having to wait until 2011 to take advantage of this opportunity! I blame Northwestern for hiding this from our fans!

WHY

Skid marks...heh.

Source: Northwest(ern) Airlines. Hate!

WHY: Why? So admittedly we're on a bit of a lull after one of the most dramatic beatdowns in recent Penn State history. We all have that glow of satisfaction of knowing that everyone in corn and blue is upset about their Wolverines. We can all feel it on Monday. We all get a day or two to rest on our laurels (but sit on them wrong, you can pinch 'em laurels and thems can hurt like crazy). Still, how embarrassing would it be for PSU fans to say, "Hey, this feels good. I feel good. The team played great. Why don't I take this week off and then get back on the wagon for Ohio State week?"

That, people, is how champion haters become also-rans.

Hate does not take a break. Hate recognizes that this Northwestern team is a threat. Hate recognizes that PSU needs to put the hate out full force against the overconfident Wildcats. No team has done less with more than Penn State at Northwestern. This can not happen again. They are long overdue for exposure as a weak offensive team with a defense incapable of handling a dynamic Penn State offense. Why? Because the Big Ten road to the Rose Bowl always leaves treadmarks in Evanston. C'mon State! Beat Northwestern! HATE! HATE! HATE! HATE! HATE! HATE!

QB Play: Moving Up The Down Staircase

Cairo — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 20:12:05 -0000

BSD: Bumped from the Fanposts. Effort like this will get rewarded every time. I mean, c'mon, man...we're talkin' charts here. The rest of you need to step it up.

It’s one of the newest pastimes of Big Ten fans. We take every journalistic swipe about the weakness of the Big Ten and lash out at the stupidity of mainstream media. We’ve re-hashed the commentary about the conference being unable to win The Big One: the non-conference losses, the postseason record in BCS games, and last years bowl game record. The verdict is that sports writers are thinking simplistically, that they don’t understand the caliber of play in the Big Ten, and that the media is present highly generalized impressions of the conference without any supporting facts to back them up.

Still, there may be some merit in thinking simplistically. What if we were to look at one statistical category, explore its implications on the conference, and then look at Penn State in particular? Could be make some inferences as to where the media perception is coming from? Furthermore, can we see if this perception of the Big Ten is warranted in 2009?

The first thing to do in this simplistic exercise is to make a general hypothesis—one that can sum up the state of NCAA football this decade. To me, it can be summed up this way:

This decade is the decade of the quarterback.

More than ever, the position of QB has been elevated to a level unseen in recent history. The media has led this charge. The Heisman trophy has been won by a quarterback every year this decade except once. Twenty-one of the twenty-seven players to finish in the top three of each Heisman race this decade have been quarterbacks.

The media and fans have also altered the perception of a quarterback as priceless to their teams success: the expansion of spread offense in the NCAA in recent years means quarterbacks are responsible for more total yardage, QB’s are better protected, several teams have had great difficulty adjusting their defenses against the spread. As a result, each conference and school is in an annual race to crown their team and competition as the best in the nation for quarterbacks.

Has the Big Ten been able to stand with the rest in this race to crown the best QBs?

Of course, the Big Ten boasts one Heisman trophy QB this decade in Troy Smith, but only three Big Ten QB’s have placed in the top 5 in Heisman voting: Drew Brees, Brad Banks, and Michael Robinson. We know that voting is arbitrary, but remember this is about perception—like it or not, it is meaningful that the Big Ten hasn’t been able to place someone in the Heisman race in recent years. This year looks to be no exception. Still, the Heisman doesn’t tell the whole story. What if we were to simplistically look at a metric to determine something as broad as, "Does the Big Ten have good quarterbacks?" It may offer some parallels to media perception of the entire league.

Passing efficiency, an admittedly arbitrary measure to base QB performance in the passing game, is still one of the better ways of measuring if a quarterback is "good" or not. It is difficult to measure the statistical numbers over time, as there may be years where there are offensive innovations (the spread) or rule changes that cause the average to go up or down. This is especially true this decade. Looking at players relative to one another, year-by-year, is a more evenhanded way of measuring QB performance.

What if we were to graph the passing efficiency of QBs in the Big Ten and look at how they rank against all NCAA opposition? Let’s take a look:

To explain this graph further: in 2000 the three best quarterbacks in the Big Ten in passing efficiency were ranked 16th, 25th, and 29th best overall nationally. If you take the average of the three, you find that the best three QB’s in the Big Ten were around 25th best in the nation that year. The next best three Big Ten QB’s were 30th, 50th, and 56th in the nation. (30+50+56)/3 puts them around 45th. The next three are calculated the same way and every year thereafter. Averaging these rankings attempts to reduce anomalies and tries to infer some tendencies about the quality of Big Ten QB play.

There are some interesting trends. There first six years saw very competitive play by the Big Ten, with an exceptional balance of good quarterbacking in 2002 and some obscenely good quarterbacks in 2005. How good? MRob was the 8th most efficient quarterback in the Big Ten in 2005, but still finished in the top five in the Heisman race. It was also the last time the Big Ten swept their BCS games and it high-water mark for the conference’s perception in the media.

Since then, there has been a drop in the rankings across the board from 2005-2008. This time period also corresponded with the emergence of the spread. With so many quarterbacks putting together incredible numbers in other conferences, it likely affected the amount of press given to Big Ten QBs, along with the general trend to provide less ink for other position players nationally.

With so much explosive play in rival conferences, coupled with few big yardage games occurring in the Big Ten, it was an easy leap for the media to label the Big Ten as "slow." Is it warranted? Has the league seen offensive production go down? The graph doesn’t tell the whole story. For example, let’s look at two quarterbacks with similar rankings and their corresponding passing efficiency numbers.

A subtle attempt to proclaim Pryor "Rashard Casey in scarlet and gray?" Perhaps. But what I really want to show here is the dramatic increase in passing efficiency numbers in the decade. Pryor’s numbers would have put him just on the outside of the Top 30 QB’s nationally in 2000.

Back to the graph. At the top, passing efficiency rankings has remained stagnant in 2009. The best QB in the Big Ten right now is Kirk Cousins, but you probably knew that from all of the press he’s been getting. Or not. Ten points if you even knew he was the starting quarterback for Michigan State. Cousins didn’t even know it back in the summer. His current ranking of 25th puts him behind press favorites like Jimmy Clausen, Tebow, Case Keenum, Dan LeFevour, Todd Reesing, Zac Robinson, and Matt Barkley. He is ahead of Colt McCoy and Jevan Snead. We’ll get to Clark in a bit, but I should note that Iowa’s incomparable Richard Stanzi (lol) is 56th.

Something interesting has occurred this year. The difference between a top rated QB and a mediocre QB is significantly smaller than at any point this decade. The overall stable of quarterbacks is far better than it was last year, and even mediocre guys like Ben Chappell are still credible QB’s who can put some offensive drives together. This may explain to some degree the overall parity in the league.

Even though there are no superstars, the best pound-for-pound stable of quarterbacks may be right here in the Big Ten.

So, what of Penn State? Is Clark horrible? Have I scared you yet? Sorry if I did. Let’s look at the chart with Penn State’s QB passing efficiency rankings added on.

PSU QB rankings are the blue dots, Big Ten championships highlighted in green.

Hopefully you’ve overpowered your gag reflex after looking at the first two-thirds of the decade. Yes, Penn State had some of the worst quarterbacks in the league from 2000 to 2007. Only Zack Mills in 2002 was in the top 6 in the league, and that was only by 0.04 points over 7th place Kyle Orton (told you there were some good ones in ’02). Robinson’s in 2005 probably does more to counter this exercise than anything—statistics be damned, he was a GREAT quarterback—but at the very least he was in a stable of quarterbacks that the press loved (Troy Smith, Chad Henne, Drew Stanton, etc.)

For the first time this decade, PSU has a top three quarterback in Darryl Clark. Even though the conference is on a low ebb, he’s still far better than any player PSU has had this decade. Take pride, we’re just moving up the down staircase.

Let’s look at Ohio State. Big Ten championships and perceived co-championships highlighted in green.

Note: Neither Pryor or Boeckman didn’t have enough throws to make the list, same with Zwick and Smith in 2004, so I used team passing efficiency. I know it’s not a stunner that having a high-quality passing attack helps to win championships, but it explains to some degree the perception that Ohio State is a cut above the rest of the league.

So what does this mean? The media may have some rationale behind the statement, "The Big Ten doesn’t have any great quarterbacks." There are some highly effective counters to that statement: the defensive secondaries of the Big Ten are better at containing the spread, the linebackers are faster at containing plays at the edges, the conference plays more games in wind and rain, the Big Ten operates places less emphasis on the play of the quarterback in its offensive schemes, etc.

These are all right to some degree. Recall though that we’re thinking simplistically. Big Ten quarterbacks are playing better ball than most places as a whole, but no one is putting up the numbers to elevate the status of the conference. Every incomplete pass by Juice and Pryor only adds to the fire. The perception may not be warranted, but we should understand where they are coming from.

At least we know Penn State ain’t the problem.

Weather for the PSU '09 season?

Cairo — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 15:50:19 -0000

Weather for the PSU '09 season?

Ann Arbor forecasts overcast skies and a 60% chance of rain with 15 mph winds. I can't even recall the last time I saw sunlight at a PSU game...everything is a gray haze. Is this the worst season of weather ever for PSU football?

JoPoz does JoePa article in this week's SI

Cairo — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 01:57:30 -0000

JoPoz does JoePa article in this week's SI

Done by the incomparable Joe Posnanski. Wonderful. If half the sports writers had one ounce of the talent of this guy, we'd be living in a golden age of journalism.