Going for it on forth down goes against conventional wisdom, but is it the right decision?

Brian Burke at Advanced NFL Stats has this to say about the subject:

Every single serious study of 4th-down decisions has found that, in most situations, teams would be better off by going for the conversion attempt rather than kicking. I've recently completed a study of 4th-down decisions that confirms what some fans already know, that it pays to be more aggressive.

http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/09/17/a-new-study-on-fourth-downs-go-for-it/

And John T. Reed's Football Think Tank says this:

Thoughtful people who have examined it dispassionately have concluded that, other than end-of-half, clock-management situations, you should usually go for it on fourth down regardless of field position... Even where the choice between going for it and kicking a field goal yields an equal expectation of points, the next play is better if you go for it and fail than if you kick a field goal. After kicking a field goal, you have to kick off, which usually gives the opponent a better field position than they would get if you turned the ball over on downs.

http://www.johntreed.com/fttfourth.html

Both Mr. Burke and Mr. Reed based their conclusions largely on a study done by economist Dr. David Romer:

This paper shows, however, that teams' choices on fourth downs differ from the choices that would maximize their chances of winning in ways that are systematic and overwhelmingly statistically significant. Indeed, there are cases where teams consistently make choices that represent clear-cut and large departures from win-maximization.

http://elsa.berkeley.edu/~dromer/papers/PAPER_NFL_JULY05_FORWEB_CORRECTED.pdf

Smart coaches understand this. 

Going for it on forth down maximizes your chances of winning, the fans be damned.

Coaches know that if they follow conventional wisdom and kick--oh well, the players just didn't make it happen. But if they take a risk and lose, even if it is on balance the better decision, they'll be Monday morning quarterbacked to death. Or at least their job security will be put in question.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2008/02/going-for-it-on-fourth-down.html

Coach Mike Leach,

I know you're a busy man especially this time of year, but would you mind taking a little time to talk to one of your former players, Michael Crabtree?  We know he's been given some questionable and contradictory advice in the past by his family, and some down-right ignorant advice by his cousin.  But now it seems his current agent, Eugene Parker, is trying to throw him under the bus.  It just doesn't seem like his advisers have his best interests at heart.  So, please, pick up the phone and spend a few minutes with him and tell him to sign the contract and play some football.  We all know that's what he really wants to do.

Thanks,

Texas Tech Red Raider Fans

Are some of us really starting to believe the negative rumors surrounding Michael Crabtree?  I thought Coach Leach was crystal clear when he told The San Jose Mercury News:

“No, there’s no diva in him,” Leach said. “He’s too shy to do that.”

"I’ve seen Michael Crabtree run from the spotlight more than I’ve seen him chase the spotlight."

Here’s another quote from Coach Leach that maybe you haven’t seen.  It’s an answer to a question about the relationship between Graham Harrell and Crabtree from The New York Times:

“I think they’ve cultivated it a lot just by working together over and over and play after play and year after year. One gets to expecting the ball. The other gets to looking to get him the ball. The other thing in our offense is we give the receiver a certain amount of leeway to adjust his route without breaking the integrity of the play. Michael Crabtree is as good as utilizing space as anybody I’ve dealt with. I guess what I’m saying is coupled with the leeway that we try to give a guy in our scheme, he’s just a master of utilizing it, building on it, maximizing it and all the rest. He finds a little crease of space. If he’s got to stretch the field, he’s going to stretch the field. If he’s got to hold the flat, he’s going to hold the flat. He’s really got a good sense of finding just that little bit space of where he can make the play without busting a route. Graham’s got a really good feel as defenses flow and do this or that. It’s kind of all that. I’m very rambling. To cut out the clutter, I think they work together a lot. I think offensively, we coach and encourage ways to utilize space without breaking the integrity of the route. Michael Crabtree is as good at utilizing as anybody I’ve dealt with.”

“They have this huge mutual respect. They’re very connected. They’re both literally at each other’s disposal anytime the other needs anything. They know how valuable they are to each other. They run in a little different groups. Part of it is because Graham is older than Michael. It’s nothing to see the two of them coming together and talking as they’re going onto or coming off the field. They definitely are two people that recognize their roles on the team as a whole, but then also they’re a value individually to each other. Graham is significantly more outgoing than Michael. Michael is kind of shy and kind of quiet. There’s usually kind of a crowd around Graham. He’s not flashy, but he’s one of those guys that typically has people around him. People tend to follow him. Michael’s got a little bit of loner in him.”

Crabtree is the real deal.

All I’m asking is that we show him some support.