Can anyone explain why the Cardinals front office & scouts have had such success in the later rounds of recent drafts (and with several UDFA's), while they've had so many apparent misses in the earlier rounds of the draft??

By my count, the Cardinals still have 11 out of 15 players taken in the 4th round or later in the last 4 drafts still on the roster, and given the longer odds against these players making the team, this is pretty impressive.

At the same time, 10 out of 12 players from the first 3 rounds are still on the roster, which may seem OK at first, but these blue chippers need to make major contributions for the franchise to progress, and many have fallen short.

Hopefully Dan Williams and Daryl Washington can even the score a little bit, but with the recent release of 2nd round pick Cody Brown, the first 3 rounds of the '07, '08 and '09 drafts have produced such underwhelming performers as Buster Davis, Rashad Johnson, Alan Branch, and Levi Brown.

Compare those names to the following starters and solid contributors that were taken in the 4th round or later in the same drafts: Steve Breaston, Ben Patrick, Tim Hightower, Brandon Keith, Greg Toler, and LSH.

Not to mention the UDFA's, where this year's comparison between the performance of undrafted Stephen Williams and 3rd rd pick Andre Roberts is difficult to comprehend.

Is evaluating college talent that much of a hit or miss proposition?

Have the Cards played it safe in the early rounds, then taken some risks later on that have panned out?

Are they drafting by need instead of best player available or vice versa?

Or are the Cardinals "small school" scouts doing a better job finding these diamonds in the rough than the scouts following the big name players from big programs??

Applying my own HIT or MISS judgment on the last 4 drafts, and trying to balance the expectations of the high draft picks who are expected to make an immediate impact; vs. the later picks where the team is hoping they simply make the 53 man roster, I have the Cardinals being successful on just 6 out of 12 in the first 3 rounds, and 9 out of 13 in the 4th round or later.

The last 4 drafts are shown below:

2010
Rnd Name College Note
1 Dan Williams  HIT
2 Daryl Washington  HIT
3 Andre Roberts  MISS???
4 O'Brien Schofield  ????
5 John Skelton  HIT???
6 Jorrick Calvin  MISS
7 Jim Dray  HIT??
 
2009
Rnd Name College Note
1 Chris Wells Ohio State   HIT
2 Cody Brown Connecticut   MISS
3 Rashad Johnson Alabama   MISS
4 Greg Toler St Pauls   HIT
5 Herman Johnson LSU    MISS
6 Will Davis Illinois   ????
7 LaRod Stephens-Howling Pittsburgh   HIT 
7 Trevor Canfield Cincinnati    MISS
 
2008
Rnd Name College Note
1 Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie Tennessee State  HIT
2 Calais Campbell Miami (Fla.)   HIT
3 Early Doucet Louisiana State  HIT
4 Kenny Iwebema Iowa  HIT
5 Tim Hightower Richmond    HIT
6 Chris Harrington Texas A&M   MISS
7 Brandon Keith Northern Iowa  HIT
 
2007
Rnd Name College Note
1 Levi Brown Penn State   MISS??
2 Alan Branch Michigan   MISS??
3 Buster Davis Florida State   MISS
5 Steve Breaston Michigan   HIT
7 Ben Patrick Delaware   HIT