SB Nation User Blog: Cap'n Snegiryov

Kevin Goldstein's Top 11 Indians Prospects

Cap'n Snegiryov — Wed, 04 Feb 2009 18:41:51 -0000

Kevin Goldstein's Top 11 Indians Prospects

Not many surprises here. LaPorta and Santana are 1/2 and both are given five stars. Weglarz is third with four stars, and then there is a massive grouping of three star prospects that includes Miller, Mills, Rondon, and Huff. Goldstein has a lot of nice things to say about the depth in our system, pointing out that no prospect in our top 11 has fewer than a three star rating.

Indians on Facebook

Cap'n Snegiryov — Sat, 31 Jan 2009 20:34:14 -0000

In general, I get a huge kick out of finding famous athletes on Facebook and friending them. I haven't been terribly successful with it, but I have managed to friend Amobi Okoye (Houston Texans DT) and Chuck Lofgren. Pretty sad and fanboy-ish, I know, but I think it's kind of a fun perspective to get on people who you normally only hear about in scouting reports or game write-ups.

Anyways, I'm wondering: which, if any, Indians/Bisons/Aeros/K-Tribe/whatever players have you found on Facebook and friended? Any interesting results? In fact, I'll broaden my query to include MySpace as well, because I know some of you are 30 year old creepy townies and thus only function on MySpace. Also, I am friends with Leigh Bodden on there (who else knew he read Nietzsche?)

Pedroia's Brother (Link Removed)

Cap'n Snegiryov — Mon, 26 Jan 2009 04:00:44 -0000

Pedroia's Brother (Link Removed)

(See my comment below - Ryan)

Seattle hires Zduriencik as their new GM

Cap'n Snegiryov — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 22:26:29 -0000

Seattle hires Zduriencik as their new GM

Most of you all probably saw this, but today Seattle announced the hiring of Jack Z . .duri . . .???. . . whatever as their new GM.

If I were a Seattle fan, I'd be excited about this hire. Jack Z is very highly regarded as a talent evaluator and scout. I know some of their fans (particularly the posters on U.S.S. Mariner) were hoping for a new school analytical type, a la Chris Antonetti, but Z's skills can help them draft and build a player development system as well or better than any of the other candidates who were up for the job.

I like track and field. I liked watching Usain Bolt win the 100 and 200 meters. That's how I think...

Cap'n Snegiryov — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 23:16:30 -0000

I like track and field. I liked watching Usain Bolt win the 100 and 200 meters. That's how I think I look in my mind when I'm stealing a base.

Jhonny Peralta, on watching the 2008 Olympics.

So if we're not contending. . .

Cap'n Snegiryov — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 14:45:32 -0000

who are you rooting for? Anyone?

I'm not trying to write the Tribe off prematurely or anything, but this season is quickly going the way of 2006--our bullpen may be as bad as it was then, and our offense is certainly much worse. If we do decide to punt, this season will become interesting for different reasons than we'd hoped (the C.C. Sabathia sweepstakes), and if you want to watch meaningful August and September baseball, you'll be watching another team play it.

My question to LGT is this: will you take a rooting interest in another team, or do you already have one? Of course, any support I give other MLB teams will be subordinate and a distant second to my love of the Tribe, but if your team is going to be as soul-crushingly boring and disappointing as the Indians have become this year, I don't see what's wrong with having a bit of an open relationship with it.

My picks:

1.) Atlanta. This is going to be my new home starting in August, and I'm going to be residing there for at least three years (and probably more). Outside of a handful of games in 1995, I've always found a lot to like about the Braves--I've always admired the way they run their organization and fuel their success through homegrown talent, and their rosters are always filled with been toolsy, athletic types who are fun to watch. Bobby Cox is great, Chipper Jones' flirting with a .400 BA is awesome, Brian McCann has been a beast for my fantasy team, and Jeff Francouer just seems cool as hell (and I have to make the customary mention of his cannon throwing arm). Also, one of their TV announcers--I think their play-by-play guy--did a chat on Baseball Prospectus not long ago, which is awesome. Plus, they're a National League team, and I can appreciate the symmetry of rooting for both an AL and an NL team with a vaguely racist name. They're 4.5 games back in a bunched-up NL East, so they're right in the mix of things, and most importantly, their fans aren't obnoxious, which is huge (this is keeping me from liking the Cubs). So, yay Braves!

2.) Tampa Bay. Duh. This team is young, full of awesome talent, has a smart, stats-friendly FO, and most importantly, is making life absolutely miserable for the established powers of the AL East. They start fistfights with the Red Sox and Yankees, Kazmir and Shields are sick, Joel Maddon is weird and a great manager, BJ Upton is great and really underrated, and the Troy Percival comeback is a really cool story. If they make the playoffs, that means either Boston or New York doesn't, so ipso facto, I like this team.

3.) Oakland A's. Basically, I want to see Billy Beane get a ring, so guys like Bill Plaschke can shove it.

What do you all think? Anything?

Carroll: Cleveland's Favorite Eckstein

Cap'n Snegiryov — Tue, 17 Jun 2008 05:35:22 -0000

Carroll: Cleveland's Favorite Eckstein

Crap. I knew it was only a matter of time before this happened.

"Pest." "Hustle." "Slightly-built." "Running out" things. And the very worst of them all: "A throwback type of player."

The celebration of tiny, mediocre, slap-hitting jockey-looking little men continues. (To be fair, I like Carroll--decent on-base skills, good pickup as a utility infielder. But come on people--for the sake of all that is good and right in this world, we can't let this go any further)

Remarkably, of the ten times the Indians have made it to the postseason, only once- in 2001- have...

Cap'n Snegiryov — Sat, 14 Jun 2008 20:12:30 -0000

Remarkably, of the ten times the Indians have made it to the postseason, only once- in 2001- have they not been in first place on June 13, and in 2001 they were just a half-game out. Of course, ten years out of 108 is a pretty small sample size, and what the Indians did in 1920, 1948, or even last year has little to do with the situation in which they find themselves in the here and now. But it isn't exactly cause for optimism. To qualify for the playoffs in 2008, the Indians would have to do something they've never done in over a century of play.

Can they do it? For your sakes, I'll leave that to the experts.

The Meaning of June 13 - Jessie Lamovsky

The Indians need an offensive upgrade desperately, and are bringing up Rockies third baseman...

Cap'n Snegiryov — Mon, 26 May 2008 05:44:43 -0000

The Indians need an offensive upgrade desperately, and are bringing up Rockies third baseman Garrett Atkins and left fielder Matt Holliday in trade talks. The Indians, though, do not plan to send struggling second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera to the minor leagues despite his hitting woes because they don’t feel Josh Barfield would be an upgrade. …

John Perrotto - Baseball Prospectus (subscription required)

The Mystery of Fausto Carmona

Cap'n Snegiryov — Fri, 23 May 2008 16:49:40 -0000

A year and a half after he first cracked the starting rotation, Fausto Carmona is still, in many ways, a baffling specimen to both Tribe fans and opposing batters. As a young(er) pitcher, he was known more for his command than his velocity, posting a 3.43 K/BB ratio during his years in the Indians' farm system. In 2006, when called up to the show, he became something of a power arm in the bullpen. Of course, by now we all know the story of his failed stint as a closer at the end of that season and his subsequent rise to dominance in 2007, during which he posted a Halladay-esque 5.73 K/9 with a 3.28 GB/FB, making him the best groundballer in the AL. His K numbers improved throughout the season (6.37 K/9 after AS break) as did his ERA, which ultimately made him a dark horse Cy Young candidate.

As great as Carmona's 2007 was, his 2008 has been. . . well, weird. Looking at Mona's peripherals, you'd think he was getting rocked pretty much every start, or at least you might conclude that he's gotten super, super lucky. Yeah, he's got that 2.25 ERA, but as we all know, these things are wont to fluctuate, and that stats like K/9, BB/9, and BABIP offer better ways to predict future performance. None of these numbers have great things to say about Fausto: he's got a 3.54 K/9 ratio, walks literally twice as many guys as he strikes out, and his BABIP is .247, suggesting that some correction will occur. Moreover, his defense-independent ERA is 4.97 (!).

However, he also has by far the best GB/FB ratio in the league (3.88, next best in the AL is Halladay at 2.74) he also has posted a LD% of 14%, good for 6th in the AL (interestingly, he had the exact same LD% last year, then good for first in the league). He's also had great success at limiting extra-base hits, holding opposing batters to a .302 slugging percentage.

Maybe I am misinterpreting the numbers, but I am beginning to wonder if it possible that Carmona actually defies the conventional "sabermetric model" of pitching success. Essentially, Mona's peripherals, other than his monstrous GB rate, say his ERA screams fluke--nobody can sustain the kind of success he's had with those K and BB numbers. However, when watching the guy, I can't help but feel his stuff is so unique, the movement and velocity on his pitches are so great, that there's no way he's going to regress as much as the numbers would suggest (although expecting him to hold onto that 2.25 ERA is probably unreasonable). I mean, calling him a sinkerballer is the understatement of the century--I've never seen any pitcher induce as many broken bats and high choppers in front of the plate. Hell, it seems like half the hits he gives up are infield singles on balls that take too long to get beyond the pitcher's mound.

My question to the statheads/people who are interested in this kind of stuff: Is there a precedent for somebody like Carmona? Are the factors driving his success--an outlandish GB rate and a very low LD% and opposition SLG--enough to sustain his ace-level performance? Can a traditional statistical evaluation really account for this guy's ability to induce weak/off-balance contact? I'm interested to hear your thoughts.