It looks like the other one is about to die and I had two prompts come to mind. The first is a personal fun story. Every once in a while I'll happen upon some thread about the Mariners off of Lookout Landing and they'll use the nickname "Figlet," when referring to Chone Figgins, which some of you remember I invented in a gamethread when he first came to Seattle (and sucked). It's one of the reasons I understand why people try to invent nicknames all the time, because it's one of those little things that's really minor when I come across it, but then brightens my day a little bit. Do you, reader of Lookout Landing, have anything you see randomly pop up on the internet or elsewhere that you can take credit for and it brightens your day?

The second prompt is about Podcasts, which I know has been a topic numerous times in the past so I'll try to make it more specific:

- Free podcasts you recommend that are over an hour long each.

- Preferably funny, but if not funny then light hearted.

I hadn't listened to non-Lookout Landing podcasts in the past, but I realized it's a great thing to have on while I work and downloaded a bunch, including You Made it Weird and The Bugle. The hour long thing is just so they can play in the background for a long time without worrying about what to listen to next. I'm sure there are plenty others.

And, as usual, talk about whatever you want.

After a discussion with some other LLers I wanted to do a comment poll/discussion with the LL community about how they view defense and defensive metrics. There has been a lot of discussion recently about some of the potential problems with UZR, including posts by Matthew, and I have let my own feelings on the topic be known probably far too often, but after discussing this with JY, Kermit, and a few others, I realized that people all seem to view how they value defense differently - both using those stats and ignoring them. So I wanted to pose a few questions while they're fresh on my mind and see what people's thoughts are:

1) Based on what you know about defense and assuming the in zone and out of zone evaluations of current players are accurate, do you believe that a team of 9 healthy 2007 Jack Wilsons (2.7 WAR) would be able to beat a team of 9 2009 Manny Ramirez's (roughly 2.7ish WAR if healthy) 50% of the time assuming an equal pitcher.

2) Ignoring UZR and all defensive metrics completely (forget everything you know about current defensive calculations), do you cognitively believe it is possible for a player that has hit as poorly as Gutierrez all year to provide enough defense to make up for their complete lack of offense. If so, do you believe it is possible, cognitively, for a player to be a net positive with a .534 OPS.

3) UZR is a counting stat. When people say UZR takes 3 years to stabilize, they are not saying that a one year UZR is inaccurate for what a player did, only that it in accurate for a player's true talent. It's one of the reasons it is included in WAR, which is also based on how a player performed, not how they will perform or whether they are skilled enough to do that well. With that in mind, it is difficult/impossible to say that a 5.5 win player is better than a 5.2 win player, and few - if any - LLers ever do. So how much do two players need to diverge before you can clearly call one player better than another using WAR, knowing the flaws and variability of UZR? Are you comfortable calling a 5.5 win player better than a 5 win player? A 4.5 win player? A 4 win player? 

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Jack Zduriencik is not without his flaws. He allows the manager to have too much control over the lineup. He does not appear to understand catcher defense. He seems to be reluctant to change a good process when it has led to bad results, even though the bad results may be indicative of future results...

But one thing that cannot be denied is what Zduriencik has been able to do with this farm system. With names like Jabari Blash and Chaz Roe, the Mariners currently have some of the best names in minor league baseball. Yet knowing your own minor league system isn't useful. You need to also be able to compare your names to those of the rest of baseball to see if you really come out on top. So where does the Mariner farm system rank?

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It's not often that I'm inspired by things on Twitter, but after doing a bit of marketing for a client I noticed a trend that I thought was clever, and seemed fun for the LL community. It may have been done before though, and if so I apologize, but maybe there's room to do it again. The trend was "Less Interesting Books."  Here are a few I came up with:

- Harry Potter and the Order of the Seder Plate.

- The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Interstate

- Jane Eh

- The Bullpen Catcher in the Rye

- 7 Habits of Moderately Useful Teenagers

Also, this could be fun with movies too, yeah? Although the only one I could come up with was "Blade Jogger." Don't forget to vote for Kermit (h/t: Faux): http://www.kermitforamerica.com/ 

Insomnia screwed on my sleep schedule.

Over the last few weeks I can’t even get tired until 9 am anymore. Today my goal is to stay up til 5pm and sleep until Friday to fix my schedule. So to entertain me while I try to power through this, here are some questions for fun:

- If you had to start your own business right now, what would you do?
- Do you have an idea for an invention that you do not plan on creating?
- Favorite coffee brand/blend?
- Favorite tea?
- Favorite coffee shop/tea place?

Hopefully the east coast LLers will be waking up soon and have interesting things to talk about.

Also, since I am a t-shirt geek, post your favorite design if you have one.

It seemed like something worth bringing up for discussion in its own FanPost, since, it is going to be a hot topic for at least a few days. The Chone Figgins --> Mets trade rumor thread had a reaction that I was not expecting from the community. Everyone, by and large, was upset by the idea that Figgins would be traded for a 2011 salary dump and prospects. Even though the trade did not come to fruition, it seemed as though everyone was against the idea of trading Figgins for anyone that isn't a major league ready impact bat. However, I would argue that trading Figgins for anything worthwhile (even just prospects) may actually be to our benefit.

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Hey. Guess what. It's my first off topic thread. I think I'm in good standing. In 2 hours I need to leave to go on a hike on Mount Si and I've slept approximately zero minutes, so if you don't hear from me ever again it's because I died. Let this shitty FanPost be my last hurrah. On a weekend no less when no one comments. God Dammit.

Prompts!

 

1. Craziest thing a drunk man/woman ever said/did to you at a bar.
2. Best places to hike, trek, hang out in or explore the outdoors for more than 3 hours WITHIN Seattle (or within your major city of residence)
   
3. The first time you ever truly blacked out and had zero memory of the previous night, what was the stupidest thing you ended up doing.
4. Ever not made it to the bathroom in time and how did you recover?
5. Make up a story that involves albino warthogs, string cheese, Febreze and a Frisbee
6. Describe yourself using zero physical or personality characteristics. Think: Metaphor.
7. When you meet someone for the first time that you find attractive physically, what are some examples of something they can do/say right away that causes you to immediately realize you don't even want to be their friend.
8. Do you have the balls to wear a Care Bear shirt in public and where can I find one?
9. When you describe someone as "really funny," what does that mean?
10. See if you can MSPaint your current facebook profile photo in its entirety, including the background and others in the photo.
11. Recommend a restaurant that it is likely no one here has tried before and what they should get.
12. Favorite commercial of all time.
13. One more! Recently had this discussion. Do you believe it is important to wash your hands before you eat? Why/Why not?

 

I didn't start reading the off topic threads until late 2009, so some of these prompts, especially number 5, may have been done before. Sorry. Luckily, as usual, you can talk about whatever you want as long as you want and weeeee!

Poll

I, the Mariners fan...

78%

Answer Polls.

43 votes

21%

Do Not Answer Polls.

12 votes

55 votes | Poll has closed

I wrote this on Lookout Landing on Griffey's birthday back in November of 2007. After getting Jeff's approval, I am reposting it here, below. At the end of this piece I make a claim that I'd like to address now that it has become a reality (bolded for emphasis), and hopefully this will stimulate some discussion.

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There was a time not long ago where I was fairly convinced I'd try to keep my identity a secret. But over the course of the past two years, I've met about five of you for various reasons, most of which had nothing to do with Lookout Landing, and thus far it has been a pleasant experience. So hey, maybe it's time to expand those numbers.

I suggest a gathering at Dantes (5300 Roosevelt Way NE Seattle WA) Saturday, 1/30 at ~8:30 PM.

Why Dantes? Because it is walking distance from my place and I'm selfish. Also, by making it a place for those over the age of 21, we can weed out the undesirables (kidding, HUGS - Actually I just know I'll need a Mac and Jacks and I heart pool).

Why 8:30? My thought was that it would be easier to gather before the bar gets busy. I will probably stay there until closing, so those that want to come later should feel free, but meeting earlier makes some sense. I also rock at both pool and air hockey, so bring quarters if you've had too much self esteem recently and would like it taken down a notch.

You should come if you are:

• Awesome
• Not lame
• Available

You should not come if you are one of:

• Not awesome
• Lame
• Unavailable

Suggestions for alternate dates are welcome, but 1/30 seems like a good time date for now. Thoughts?

Poll

Are you coming?

12%

Like a no hitter on Felix day

3 votes

87%

No. I am allergic to awesomeness and fun and/or too much of a pansy to spend $300 on a last minute plane ticket to a gathering that will likely last only a few hours. Also, I have herpes. Plus I'm just no fun in general. I'm doing you a favor.

21 votes

24 votes | Poll has closed

With Chone Figgins and Ichiro leading off, our team is about to get very annoying. I define annoying as "Hits for very little power while still contributing" - Basically a team of players that don't seem to get out, but without any power that would make them legitimate run threats any time they are up to bat.

On base machines that hit for power come in three categories:

1. Frustrating Badasses (Three True Outcome hitters that strike out often)
2. "Okay..." (Players that hit a crapload of doubles and triples, not a lot of homeruns)
3. Superstars

Frustrating badass players may annoy you, but they are not annoying players, so they are excluded. Superstars are obviously excluded. "Okay...." players don't bother anyone, so they are excluded. Players that suck are excluded unless there is no annoying alternative. Annoying players are those with the lowest ISOs while still contributing in some form at their position.

So, for fun, I decided to create a team of low ISO players with as high a wOBA as possible, using Bill James projections. The lowest ISO players were rarely contributors, but the high wOBA guys rarely had low ISOs, so there will be some debate to the choices. I also limited it to players that had at least 400 PA in 2009.

Players:

 

via farm3.static.flickr.com

 

And the results of such a team:

via farm3.static.flickr.com

 

These numbers assume a 650 plate appearances per player and a .335 league average wOBA. However, at minimum we can expect an additional 300 or so PAs team wide, so add about 35 runs, and more realistically about 500 PAs (about 60 runs), . Assuming all equal plate appearances and no injuries or substitutions, this team would score about 785 runs in a year if I did the math right, which I don't think I did because this team would have the 4th highest wOBA in the majors. Still, they would be at least the 9th most productive hitting team in baseball, if not the 4th, so not bad. If there were better Catcher/2b annoying options, those numbers would be a bit higher. Also, the defense of this team would be pretty spectacular, though not necessarily mind blowing.

Any substitutions? 

 

rLF

With all of the discussion about the value of defense recently, I decided to create a very rough and quick statistic to show its value in a way that even the casual fan can understand. I termed the stat "rLF" and the first test subject is everyone’s favorite third baseman, Adrian Beltre.

Adrian Beltre has often been a source of controversy between the Statheads and the casual fan. Although no one denies he is a good player, there is an argument as to whether or not he is worth his "value" – that is, the 11ish million he makes per year because of his (seemingly) low production offensively.

While much of the controversy lies in his basic stats, such as his batting average, slugging, HR’s, etc. – and I would argue his offensive stats themselves if you equate for his bad luck are already worth the contract – the other part of his game that is underappreciated is his defense.

As Jeff and others have pointed out of late, defense is not only underappreciated, it is also not hard to find. An ~average defender can be found in the minors for next to nothing. Finding a good defensive fielder with a good bat may be more difficult, but "average" is fairly easy to find, and you won’t have to trade the farm to get it.

Despite his error today, Adrian Beltre appears to have both. He has a good bat that has been unlucky of late, and a glove that may not have been the best in the American league last year (Screw You Brandon Inge) but was easily in the top 3. According to everyone that has watched him play, he is at least a 5 < X < 15 above average run saver with his glove. For the sake of argument, let’s split the difference and say that, with his glove, he prevents 10 runs from scoring on average.

As Jeff often says, a run saved is as important as a run scored. So what I decided to do was create a quick stat that shows the value of those runs prevented by converting it into offensive numbers.

Why offensive numbers? Because those are the statistics that make the most sense to the average fan. If you are trying to explain how much his defense positively affects his value, it would be far easier to say what Adrian Beltre would need to HIT to equal the same production if he was just an average defender.

I used average as the baseline because an average defender is not difficult to find. There may be a better way, but I’m not a stats guru and I don’t have a lot of time to spend on this… ever.

The Method

I entered Beltre’s basic stats into a spreadsheet (BB, Singles, Doubles, Triples, HRs). To find out the runs created by Beltre I used THT’s RC (Runs Created) stat. It was quick and easy, though there may be a better way to calculate these values. Again, if a run created is worth the same as a run saved, these two should be roughly equal in terms of overall value.

Next I added Adrian’s defensive runs saved approximation (10 runs, I termed it "Appx D" for simplicity) to THT’s RC, as an estimate for the total value of runs Beltre has contributed altogether (Defense+Offense). I divided the new number by the old RC, since the old RC only accounts for offense. Again for the sake of simplicity, I termed this value Ddif.

Finally, I multiplied this value by all of the core stats (this is where regression analysis would likely come in handy, in case he had an uncharacteristic amount of home runs, etc., but that’s not something I plan on doing). PA would not change because the purpose of this is to show what Beltre would have had to bat in order to equal the runs he saves defensively over average in the same amount of plate appearances. AB does change to account for the walks, but it is not multiplied by Ddif either, because it is based on PA.

(note: I’m still not positive if I should be including walks, but they will remain included for now)

I then found what the new and updated BA/OBP/SLG would be for Beltre. Assuming he saves 10 runs above average with his glove, if he was an average defender, he would have to bat .312/.359/.546 to produce the same amount. Or, if you want to put it in more positive terms, Beltre essentially had a .905 OPS in 2007 if he were an average defender.

(For those that are curious, at 5 < x < 15, Beltre is .294/.339/.514 < x < .331/.378/.579)

I’m positive there is a better way to do it, and I’m positive someone has likely done this before. But at least these numbers give you a very easy to calculate talking point if you are trying to explain why Beltre is worth the money. If he saves 10 runs with his glove above average, he was essentially a .905 OPS, rather than a .802 OPS.

I termed the stat rLF to stand for two things: Replacement Level Fan (as in, a number that casual fans can understand) and "Raul in Left Field." So, for fun, I’ll also address the latter of the two.

For Raul in 2007, if we assume he ONLY caused 20 runs to score below average (and I think it is possible it is more like 30 or more), Raul – as an average defender – put up a .231/.284/.380, or a .665 OPS.

So that is my quick stat using what little I know about [baseball] statistics. At the very least, it will make it a little easier to talk about the value of Beltre and other players to casual fans, and although I’m sure there must have been someone that has done this before, hopefully this works as an easier way to calculate it.

Edit - Jeff sent me Tango's RC. I like using the idea of Tango's RC more, since they are not dependent on the situation the player actually encounters, but an approximation of what each one is worth with the situation removed (much like defense). I'm not going to retype this whole thing, but you can find Tango's numbers here. And here is the result:

I like this result much better. Beltre becomes a 300 hitter with above average power and good defense. Ibanez is not god awful but for a left fielder he comes basically useless.

 

This is Matthew's(?) link from the USSM about comments Baker made about the interview that Felix "avoided." Geoff said that since Felix hadn't accomplished anything in baseball, he is not allowed to avoid the press, and that he was being childish and immature. The article at the bottom by Shannon Drayer was in response to that. The article itself is worth reading, but this was also nice to see [emphasis mine]:

That night I along with a reporter from MLB.com waited for Felix. When he came out he was surprised that there were only two of us left. I explained that the others had deadlines and Felix replied, “But it is early.” He then gave us the interview. From the interview I could tell that he wasn’t quite sure how to handle himself in this particular situation. He didn’t want to say that he pitched poorly. He spouted the company line on how they were struggling and how he believed that the bats would come along. He seemed a bit confused on just how he was supposed to answer the questions. He did give one good nugget, he said that he believes he has been throwing the fastball too much in his recent starts and needs to mix in more breaking balls. It was a decent interview, and while not as timely as some would want, no arm twisting was required.

I think we had a recent discussion about how some guys on the radio said that the M's blogs told Felix to throw more fastballs and I think that Blowers or someone also said that you can never throw enough fastballs. Good to see that at least Felix gets it.

Full Article

The Mariners make me unhappy. So here are things that make me happy!!! Please feel free and contribute your own cute and happy things, so that we may not only brighten our lives with sunshine and flowers, we also improve the tone of this community which has certainly been a negative nelly of late.

Kitten Cups, of course:

Baby Hugs:

via static.flickr.com

Coffee!!!

Ah, coffee. The feeling is mutual.

It is fun being positive. Hooray life!

From Baker's Blog:

Miguel Batista says a new discovery is what led him to toss 7 2/3 scoreless innings and strike out eight.

Batista won't say what the discovery was. He isn't sure it's going to work again. But he sounds excited about it. He should be. His velocity wasn't there today, but the Angels were still swining through his pitches all afternoon.

"I might have found something that I wish I might have found years ago in my career,'' Batista said. "I don't know if I'm right yet. It's going to take me at least four or five more starts to figure out if it's going to be able to work as good as I believe it might work.

"And if it does, I might be able to pitch another five years.''

Now, because he won't say what it is and it has only been one game, there is not necessarily any validity to this. I've also been told on this website and others that it is difficult/near impossible for a pitcher to learn something new (other than a new pitch) after throwing for so many years. But the thought of a pitcher - any pitcher, good or bad - figuring out a new way to pitch is something I find exciting. Here's hoping it exists.

And still going. Do they call these games? Because someone's arm is going to break. To put that Japanese game into perspective, however, the entire San Diego team coming into this inning is only at 249 pitches.

Because I'm fairly positive I'm not at 75 words, my addition to this temporary thread is: Start visiting pdb's site at www.niceguysfinishthird.com so that he writes there more often. The more baseball blogs not written by a doc, the better, amigo.

Here's hoping Davidson upsets them all.

These have been pretty good diaries lately, so I don't want to hijack them.

In the news:
1) The Yankees visited Virginia Tech to honor the students and teachers that were killed in the shooting last year. They then played an honorary exhibition game against the VT baseball team and wiped the floor with them, winning 11-0. Something seems somewhat assholey about that, but oh well.
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080318&content_id=2442883&vkey=spt2008news&fex t=.jsp&c_id=mlb

2) Kerry Wood has back spasms :(.
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080319&content_id=2444211&vkey=spt2008news&fex t=.jsp&c_id=mlb

3) "Ichiro has a very fine prefrontal cortex"
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/mariners/2004291330_ichiro19.html

4) Coach is cheating on us.
http://www.halosheaven.com/2008/3/18/306695/i-hope-we-can-get-along-th

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