I live in California, and as such I really appreciate what Japers is able to provide me, because lets face it: I am anti-social, and the Caps have something to do with it, as does this wonderful blogosphere. I go to work early every day so I can come back in time to get my crack watch our wonderfully talented heroes take on some other band of trifling hooligans. I certainly enjoyed bellowing with many of you in Heinz Field, giving the Pens and their fans just what they needed, and the Caps the support they deserved. This season has been a long journey for us fans, and now that we are on the precipice of its twilight (definitely not a euphemism whatsoever) I realized something. This is where it gets weird.

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With Koivu just signing a 7-year deal worth $47.25 million, it brings up yet another 1C contract to compare to Front-to-the-Backstrom's new deal. And after looking at a few numbers (below the jump), one thing is clear: George McPhee makes our happy little world go 'round.

I can not honestly say that I have watched sufficient film on Koivu to know his game or get a sense of his true value game to game. But from the reactions I have seen, I think Koivu is viewed as a good 1C and a franchise player.  He did, after all, get the biggest contract in Wild history.

I have, however, watched a tremendous amount of Backstrom, and I see him as a Top 3-in-the-NHL center. I think most people on this site would agree. Which would explain my delerium when he signed for under $7M per season.

The analysis is not advanced, but in this case I specifically feel that it does not need to be; the indications are obvious.

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ESPN Insider subscribers may have noticed Hollinger's annual draft rater came out today. This is a system based on Hollinger's PER, a widely recognized collection of advanced metrics that evaluates NBA player value. The draft rater uses college stats to project first year NBA performance based upon the careers of previous college-to-pro players (e.g. LeBron was never analyzed, because he didn't go to college). The system is not perfect, but it does often predict success and unearths stars that are not lottery picks quite often. Hollinger's own disclaimer also states that one-year and done players have the most error in their projections, because, obviously, there is less statistical data to work from. That said, I have been following this metric for a couple of years, and it is definitely as good a predictor as any (the best one I have found) of college-to-pro success.

It has John Wall at #3 of this year's prospects, behind Turner (by a fractional margin, 14.79-14.68) and... his teammate Cousins (16.14). Surprised? I certainly was.

Cousins has some character issues (I cringe having to use that phrase) that will make him slide down on draft day, otherwise he could very well have been pushing Wall and Turner for top 3 status. His production and resulting projection is akin to Drew Gooden (worst-case), or Rudy Gay and Luol Deng. Not bad at all. He's also got great height and bulk, so if he drops down to the 8-10 pick range, one of those teams is going to be ecstatic. Remember, Cousins is only a Freshman too, and so his projection is subject to an error commensurate with Wall's projection error.

Turner had more collegiate numebrs to draw from, and is 3-4 years older (ostensibly more mature), so the fact that he and Wall project to have a similar pro impact (albeit using different playing styles) in 2010-2011 is not that surprising. What is surprising, at least to me, is that for all of Wall's breath-taking talent, he did not statistically dominate as much as one might expect. For instance, his projected PER puts him in the upper tier of prospects since 2002, but nowhere near Wade's projection (~17 I think) or Durant's (19.01, a ridiculous number). Durant aboslutely destroyed his college competition, to the tune of over 30 ppg in Big 12 play that year (this is not common, at all). That sort of transcendence was easily identified. Wall just did not score at the rate of those two players in college.

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