
Cards Fan in Chitown
Mar 23, 2008 Dec 23, 2009 39 22469
Musician and artist in Chicago who's favorite sport is baseball and favorite team the Cardinals (who look pretty underrated this season, albeit they need to not have the problems of the '07 season). Other favorite team is DA BEARSSS! And I might start watching basketball again if the Bulls stop playing like b.s.
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Waino: Why Carp should win Cy Young
I'm not sure if this was already posted, but I find it really entertaining to see Wainwright write about why Carp should win, and vice versa: http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/stories.nsf/cardinals/story/85F904FD5315DC588625766E00197852?OpenDocument
I did a quick ranking of Cy Young contenders based on ERA, baseball reference ERA+, IP, FIP from fangraphs, and TRA+ from statcorner
- Zack Greinke
- Tim Lincecum
- Felix Hernandez
- Chris Carpenter
- Roy Halladay/Adam Wainwright
Cobbler experiment a success?
I tend to agree with the article, although someone pointed out that schumaker's improvement in his defense correlated with the cardinals winning more games... and of course it's not that big of a boost to have a second baseman who is at least capable. but I have been a fan of the move since they did it, and for this season at least it has been a good idea (especially since Lugo arrived).
Pitching FTW
Our starting pitching is ridiculous... we are first in the major leagues in FIP. And it's not really that close. The Braves are second with 3.72 FIP, but the Cards are one of the most successful teams in the majors with a 3.54 FIP (5th in winning percentage at 20 games over .500). As expected, we have the highest ground ball percentage, and we have the 3rd lowest line drive %. So our starting pitching is one of the main strengths of the team, but not so much for our relief pitching.
41 comments | 9 recs
Shelby Miller to Quad Cities, to pitch Sept. 3 and 7
hopefully I will be able to make one of these games
Post All Star Break notes
- Josh Kinney is not effective... ERA and FIP around 7 (does not included tonight's bases loaded walk)
- the second half could involve lots of injured Derosa and Glaus. plenty of interesting storylines to follow there. hopefully this means less Thursty
- Colby Rasmus is for real... .800 OPS for a rookie is very nice... 5.5 to 6 WAR player for a season is amazing (he's already around 3)... and he is already arguably the best defensive center fielder in the game
- Brendan Ryan on defense is a ton of fun to watch at shortstop, he is rivaled only by Jack Wilson and JJ Hardy in defense... and he is one of their highest ranked in Spd 6.4 at fangraphs
- who woulda thought our team's pitching would be lead by Adam Wainwright and .... Joel Pineiro? And Ryan Franklin being an elite closer? he sucks!
Ank vs. Dunc: Who Would Get Voted Off?
So, we have 2 redundant outfielders with similar skillsets. If we had the choice to "vote one off" the proverbial Cardinal island, who would it be?
71 comments | 0 recs
team UZR ratings for the last year and a half
I'm not sure if it is all Tony's fault, but our defense is not very good lately. I think this could partially be attributed to Tony's constant positional shuffling. Since muscle memory is a part of the game, I think it would help the defense if they were not moved around to different positions as much.
In defense of Tony, he is great about preparing the players for the game and getting them to try hard. And more importantly, his teams over the past few seasons have performed above their Pythagorean projections.... and you cannot deny his success. I just think he may be getting a little megalomaniacal with his constant need to tinker and make up new lineups, and is far too dogmatic with his adhering to matchups.
...not sure about the methodology that was used to write this article btw, my biggest concern being what if the team's last season of UZR ratings were from last year's players... did the author actually tally the individual players? Plus, I am highly suspicious of any article that has Detroit as far and away the best defensive team.
Wellemeyer's Velocity article on fangraphs
The article has sort of an cautionary tone as to Welleymeyer's drop in speed. Equating it to a probable future injury... I'm wondering, does Wellemeyer hitting 94 mph in tonight's win a good sign as to the possible injury? I admit, I'm slightly alarmed still, but also I think it's a good sign... the Cardinals could have been telling him not to push it in terms of throwing the fastball. Would it make sense for them to do that strategy and let him stretch out more gradually over the course of the season, especially since it is only his second season as a starter, the first of which he got hurt during?
League leaders, all-star voting, etc
So I like how the new All Star Game ballot lets fans see what a player's stats are... but found it to be pretty limited. So before voting any more, I wanted to do a little research and see who's shaping up to be someone good to vote for. And although you can only vote for hitters/position players, I also want to look at some good choices for pitchers to make the team, and of course, just to see how the season is shaping up so far.
First off, I am amazed at the season Jason Bartlett is puting together, sporting a mlb leading .373 batting average, .450 wOBA, 1.014 OPS, and 2.7 WAR all while playing plus defense at shortstop and stealing 14 bases so far. His BABIP is a little ridiculous, though. Still, I'll be voting for him at shortstop for the AL.
Next up, you can't deny what kind of a season Kevin Youkilis is having. His OPS is nearly identical to Albert Pujols, but he is leading the majors in wOBA. The guy is a solid defender, and his on-base percentage approaches .500. With a BABIP of .441 it's pretty doubtful he can keep up this level of play, but he can play first base or third and he has a high grit factor.
As an option if you don't like Youkilis (and illogically I'm tempted not to vote for him), there's Mark Texeira... he has a really high wOBA, a very decent OPS, good fielding, with a pretty low BABIP. 16 dingers doesn't hurt either. Carlos Pena is also having a fine season, but not quite as consistent so far.
It's pretty obvious who to pick at first base in the NL... your mang, Albert Pujols. Albert is rocking a .466 wOBA, yet has a very reasonable .313 BABIP. His ISO is 4th in the majors, at .337. For context, Albert's astounding 2008 season produced a .458 wOBA. Despite having an off year on defense, I would still trust his defensive capabilities to start the All Star Game.
Many thought the Phillies acquiring Raul Ibanez was a very bad move... but then again, the guy is having a ridiculous season. The NL is treating his not so good fielding quite well... while not being entirely accurate, at least he's putting up decent UZR numbers in '09. But mainly, I gotta like the guy having 19 home runs right now, an ISO of .366, and a 1.098 OPS. I'd throw him in the outfield and see what he can do with 3.1 WAR.
As much as I'd like to have Brad Hawpe in the lineup for the NL right now with his .439 wOBA, he is a scary bad defender. If Ibanez is going to be in the outfield, he's not much of an option, unless he's a bat off the bench with an OPS of 1.052. A far better option would be Justin Upton who is not as bad a defender, and is similarly capable at offense.
At 2B NL, gotta go with Chase Utley. He's a great defender, is at 2.5 WAR, .437 wOBA... and his ISO is his career best so far at .257. Vote Utley '09.
Another AL OF option is Adam Jones (not this Adam Jones). A .345 batting average is great, he's been sort of unpredictable at center field this year, but his career UZR/150 is 2.7 (1.8 in center). 2.3 WPA and 2.0 WAR are more nice incentives. Gonna vote for the guy I think.
For AL catcher, Victor Martinez is rocking 2.6 wins above replacement level. While I'm not too familiar with this player, his fielding stats don't seem toooo bad, and amazingly he is at .427 wOBA with an OPS of .992. Victor Martinez of the Indians should be catcher imo.
The best third baseman in the AL right now is Evan Longoria... .426 wOBA, 3.2 WAR, 13.8 UZR/150 (career 17.8). No doubt that this is the guy for 3B with elite stats like this.
Similarly, Hanley Ramirez should be starting at shortstop for the NL. The main concern being his defense, still it's at -7.4 for his career, not that horrendous... plus it is buoyed by his 2009 play at 12.8 (not too bad in '08 either). More importantly, he is 2.8 WAR, .971 OPS at shortstop, and is batting .344. Sweet.
Back to AL OF, Nelson Cruz of the Rangers is a great choice. .965 OPS, .416 wOBA, 2.5 WAR, plus defender, what's not to like?
Rounding out the outfield for the American League... I'm voting for Torii Hunter. The guy is a good defender, .417 wOBA, .976 OPS, 42 rbis. Not too shabby. Some would argue that Jason Bay would be a better choice, but he's more of a write in imo... he is not anywhere near as good an outfielder as Torii, and has a lower WAR this season.
To wrap up the AL voting, I'm going go with Ian Kinsler at the keystone. 2.6 WAR, improved defense this season, .398 wOBA, 11 stolen bases. Cool.
NL OF: I think Carlos Beltran is doing good enough to make the team. Mainly because of his .998 OPS. Some worrisome elements are his high BABIP and not so good defense this year, so I have to do the unthinkable and vote for 2 Brewers in the outfield: Mike Cameron and (annoyingly) Ryan Braun. Both of their WPAs are higher than Beltran's, as well as their ISOs. Mike Cameron is a better player than Braun at this point though.
btw, Kosuke Fukudome is having himself a very nice season... kind of makes up for this odd inclusion last season.
Third base is sort of a tough choice between Chipper Jones and Ryan Zimmerman. They are both batting .322, as well as having identical wOBA at .401. Weird. Their BABIPs are nearly identical too, but Zimmerman has a slight edge here probably. Shit, their OPS is basically equal too. In everything else though, it's not really close. Zimmerman has the fresh legs, and is just basically a better player at this point. While Chip's got the experience, Zimmerman's got the higher WPA, WAR, etc. Mainly it's the defense though. Ryan Zimmerman is way better there.
Finally, NL catcher should be Brian McCann. As much as I'd like to vote for Yadi, McCann is the far superior hitter and probably pretty comparable at defense. Yadi is a fine option though, obviously.
33 comments | 0 recs
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