So the Cardinals have had to deal with everything from nagging shoulder separations, barking knees, tweaked hammy's and right out of the gate, calf strains. And that doesn't even count Kyle McClellan and Skip Schumaker! Even Yadi was out for a brief stint. That's kind of a staggering amount of injuries, yet the Cardinals are still in first place.

This is in great part due to Rafael Furcal's torrid start to the season, OPS'ing nearly .930 at shortstop. In fact, he has been the best shortstop in MLB so far this season. That's not to say he will continue doing that, since his BABIP is at .400. That said, he has been all or more than what you would want for a leadoff hitter. The main concern is him continuing to stay healthy, of course. But so far he has not been a worry.

The other factor being Carlos Beltran. Essentially, this duo were signed to replace Albert Pujols, and they have been far more than capable in almost a quarter of a season. By weighted on-base average, Beltran's peers are Matt Kemp and Josh Hamilton. So he has been a top 3 hitting outfielder, and right around 6th best in MLB (basically the same as Joey Votto). Perhaps most impressively, Beltran is tied for second in home runs in the majors... even while missing the last few games; AND, his BABIP is ridiculously normal at .299.

And let's not forget slow-starting Matt Holliday, who is now at .352 wOBA prior to tonight's game (where he hits a home run). With Beltran's 13 home runs and Holliday's 8 or 9 or so, that is a nice core of the order as one would expect of these two players. Of course, Yadi's hot start cannot be overlooked: .386 wOBA; .303 BABIP. And the ridiculous potential of the often milk cartoned Allen Craig, sporting a 218 wRC+ and tied for third on the team in home runs in very limited playing time.

Continue reading this post »

I had the good fortune of being able to attend game three of an early season showdown with the Cubs. The first two games proved that the Cubs will definitely be continuing the rivalry that is so sacred to baseball fans. It is a rivalry that seems to range from friendly to bitter, but more towards the friendly side (especially now that the Reds and Brewers have raised the ire of many Cards fans). The umping in the first two very tight matchups left something to be desired, but the third game was more correctly umpired.

What made today special right off the bat was that some Jackie Robinson scholars were honored by throwing mulitple first pitches of the game... and then, none other than Jason "George Costanza" "Art Vandelay" Alexander was announced, throwing the 4th first pitch of the game (is that possible?). (all photos by George M. Bowles)

Here we see Jason talking to the other first pitch throwers. Was a really cool day to be at Wrigley.

The game was slightly delayed by rain on a cloudy cool day in Chicago.

As you can see, the tarp was taken off. Not sure what happened, but they had to unroll it again and it alarmed me as it looked like they were covering the field back up. There was a forecast the previous day that said it was going to rain possibly all afternoon, so I was worried I might be there for a while. Guessing they just did it wrong and had to re-do it, but maybe that's just the usual procedure. Anyway, was very relieved the game got underway without much of a delay (I think it was 20 minutes or so).

Next, here is the starting pitcher who was bequeathed the W for today's game, one of the heroes of the day: Lance Lynn.

Here are David Freese and Matt Holliday walking together, with Matt Carpenter and someone stretching randomly in the picture before the game started.

The other star of the day, David Freese, looks better and better at the plate.

So after the end of last season, Freese has become one of my favorite players. Was always thinking he'd pan out as a prospect, and after many trials and tribulations he did. Of course, it will be interesting to see how or if he can continue the torrid pace he has set lately. In less than a month, David Freese has accumulated 4 home runs and 18 RBIs, which is tied for fifth in MLB. As for a rate stat, Freese is .953 OPS (.339/.388/.565) so it appears that David has picked up where he left off.

And here is Freese's buddy, Matt, who is waiting for the summer holidays to start.

I think I'd do better too in the warmer months if I were a ballplayer.

Long-time Cardinal favorite Yadier Molina's batting stance:

It could just be me, but it looks like Yadier's batting stance has evolved a lot.

Matt Carpenter:

So, it was a great game to watch as a Cardinals fan, seeing the offense break out a bit, and scoring runs.

But Lance Lynn was just as important, going deep into the game and collecting baseball's first 4 wins in 2012. How does one do such a thing? With a 1.33 ERA, we can't expect this to continue... but it is very encouraging. Only 5 others have a better ERA, oddly enough including 2 of the StL rotation: Jake Westbrook (a tad better at 1.31 ERA) and Kyle Lohse (MLB's second best ERA pitcher so far at .99 ERA, ahead of Stephen Strasburg). Including these stats as a fun look at a weird anomaly... who would have thought 3 out of 5 of the rotation would be that freaking good in April, and not have Adam Wainwright or Chris Carpenter be one of those guys?

Now, time for random things I noticed at Wrigley. I can highly recommend first row terrace seats on the first base side. It was extremely easy to get from the Red Line El train to my seat. There's an entrance next to Captain Morgan's club or whatever it is, and the entrance to the section I sat in (237) was very close to the main entrance I used to access the ballpark. This made dealing with Wrigley much easier than going in through the Clark street entrance. Got in fast, got out fast.

Dan Descalso guards second base very well.

Funny stuff that happened: two annoying frat boy types ended up having to sit by one of the ushers, who chastised them like an old grandpa, as they were in general being annoying, loud, and cussing, perpetuating the stereotype of shitty Cubs fans. Not one sentence came out of their mouth that had any form of intelligence. After several times of grunting and cussing, with a toddler within earshot, the ushers got fed up and kicked them out. I applaud you, old Cubs usher guy.

I wish I could say the stupid behavior was limited to Cubs fans, but there were a few Cardinal fans there that were immature as well. One group walked around obviously trolling Cubs fans, pointing at his shirt which had some annoying slogan on it and basically coming off as almost picking fights.

One other funny thing was that someone had spilled a beer in the seats above us, and a woman sitting right where the dropoff is got showered in beer and was not too happy about it. The event was pretty funny though, she didn't get that soaked. Other than that, just heard some average baseball fan banter that was rather ironic since they were trying to sound smart about stats but using them totally inappropriately.

Anyway, I leave you with a picture of Mitchell Boggs warming up in the "bullpen", even though he did not get to pitch.

Later, Kyle McClellan warmed up in a fraction of the time, and finished out the game.

Link to my flickr page with a few more pics from the game

This season, the Reds appear to be the main competition for the Cardinals. Sure, the Brewers will still be pretty good, but just not the powerhouse they were last year. So let's find out what projections are being forecast for the Reds team.

This time around, I included an average with the Marcel projection for the hitters, as well as one with the CAIRO projection. I made an error the first time around, and then realized that I did have the CAIRO projections (forgot there was another tab on the spreadsheet... I recommend not drinking too much whiskey on St. Pat's Day). Anyway, for the hitters you'll see two different averages, reflecting the difference in the two related systems. The expected roster of the Cincinnati Reds (Starting Pitching + 8 starters + best bench player):

Scott Rolen:

Fans: 438 PA at .331 wOBA (3 WAR)

CAIRO: 447 PA at .334 wOBA (1.9 WAR)

ZiPS: 344 PA at .326 wOBA

RotoChamp: 438 PA at .341 wOBA

Scott Rolen looks to be still pretty valuable, although he probably will be a borderline full time player. With Marcel included, the average expected amount of plate appearances is 402, and he will probably be somewhere around .332 wOBA. However, with CAIRO it is 417 PA and .333 wOBA.

Joey Votto:

Fans: 684 PA at .416 wOBA (7.5 WAR)

CAIRO: 646 at .406 wOBA (4.3 WAR)

ZiPS: 660 at .399 wOBA

RC: 682 at .410 wOBA

So there you have it, Joey is a very valuable player and he should shred the ball this year at the plate (especially if he matches that freakish Fans projection!). He is perhaps the most athletic first baseman in the league as well. With no Pujols, this is where the Reds probably have a quite clear advantage, even over the crippled lynx, Lance Berkman. Projection consensus w/Marcel expects 663 PA @ .406 wOBA... with CAIRO: 668 PA at .408 wOBA.

Ryan Hanigan:

Fans: 368 PA at .326 wOBA (2.5 WAR)

CAIRO: 301 at .330 wOBA

ZiPS: 318 at .319 wOBA

RC: 311 at .343 wOBA

This guy is a pretty decent catcher, at the very least. RC's projection is pretty crazy.... if he does that, the Cards probably don't have an edge here. But I think it is pretty obviously an outlier. I'd expect more like .322 wOBA, but anyway, here are the averaged projection w/Marcel: 343 PA at .327 wOBA. w/CAIRO included: 325/.330.

Zack Cozart:

Fans: 581 PA at .328 wOBA (3.9 WAR)

CAIRO: 328 PA at .313 (1.4 WAR)

ZiPS: 564 PA at .310

RC: 404 PA at .329

First off, the Reds have like 5 shortstops on their roster, so it's a little more understandable with that in mind why Marcel only has him down for 219 PA. But, I think it's pretty clear he's probably the best hitter of the bunch, so I'm going to use only his stats for the purposes of this exercise. Averaged projection is 442 PA at .324 wOBA w/Marcel. With CAIRO, it is 469 at .320.

Brandon Phillips:

Fans: 697 PA at .336 wOBA (4.8 WAR)

CAIRO: 662 PA at .336 wOBA (2.8 WAR)

ZiPS: 665 PA at .333

RC: 647 at .341

One of the best second basemen in the majors, BP will still be a very valuable player to the Reds team. He may be annoying, but he's really good (probably making him even more annoying for us). Definitely a full time player, he is projected at 654 PA and a .336 wOBA (Marcel). CAIRO included: 668 at also .336 or so.

Jay Bruce:

Fans: 657 PA at .365 wOBA (5.1 WAR)

CAIRO: 563 at .348 wOBA (2.1 WAR)

ZiPS: 626 at .349

RC: 638 at .348

Now time for the Reds' outfield! It's pretty hard to ignore the two .348's and a .349 wOBA projection for Bruce, but Fans projection thinks otherwise. I would be kinda surprised if he goes over .350 to be honest. The averaged projection is 628 PA at .352 wOBA with the Marcel proj. As CAIRO, 621 PA at .352 or so as well.

Chris Heisey:

Fans: 503 PA at .323 wOBA (1.7 WAR)

CAIRO: 328 at .324 (.8 WAR)

ZiPS: 440 at .334

RC: 525 at .350

Heisey is a pretty clear weak spot on their roster (at least when compared to Holliday). Ludwick is the alternative, and these days Ryan Ludwick is just not projected to do much of anything to be worried about. Averaged projection is 461 PA at .336 wOBA (Marcel). CAIRO: 449 at .333 wOBA.

Drew Stubbs:

Fans: 650 PA at .342 wOBA (4.4 WAR)

CAIRO: 543 PA at .312 wOBA (1.7 WAR)

ZiPS: 653 PA at .319 wOBA

RC: 643 at .325

Fans expectation seems pretty crazy high. Still, the Reds probably have the edge here, as much as I am underwhelmed by the player Drew Stubbs. Marcel included = 636 PA at .327 wOBA. CAIRO included = 622/.325.

Ryan Ludwick:

Fans: 454 PA at .313 wOBA (.9 WAR)

CAIRO: 446 PA at .336 (1.3 WAR)

ZiPS: 541 PA at .326

RC: 507 at .313

Ludwick is pretty far from his 2008 season, but who knows... pretty decent bench player I suppose. Although, these projections seem to indicate maybe he would not be a bench player, but somewhere between a part time and a full time player. Averaged projection: 508 PA at .315 wOBA w/Marcel inclusion. CAIRO inc: 487/.322.

Marcel included version:

The Reds offense is really quite good. .339 wOBA for the team, which means they are much better equipped to deal with the Cards' .344 team wOBA averaged projection. The Cards appear to have the main edge with their bench in my opinion... and of course the outfield (Holliday and Beltran are pretty difficult to match for most teams).

As for durability, 487 PA per player average for the Cardinals is a little worrisome. The Reds are at 526 PA per player, which is quite clearly an edge in their favor. That is more than the Brewers also. This is explained by the Cardinals having one of the highest average age for a player of any MLB team, while the Reds are one of the younger teams overall. Now, on to the pitching...

CAIRO included version:

OK, so now we get to see the real comparison, since the Cardinals averaged projections included CAIRO...

Reds 522 expected PA (about the same) and .340. So about the same... but a little closer.

Continue reading this post »

When I think of the Brewers lately, I don't get too upset about Braunroids, which is the story many will think of. I think of Zach Greinke, who is an ace starting pitcher. I also think of Yovanni Gallardo, another ace. They are like the Cardinals in this respect, with two top notch starting pitchers anchoring their rotation. However, their 3-4 starters are in my mind probably not quite as good. But it's close...

Zach Greinke

CAIRO: 161 IP at 2.63 FIP (3.1 WAR)

Fans: 212/3.06 (5.3 WAR)

ZiPS: 199/3.48

RotoChamp: 195/2.91

I am not going to have as much to say about these as I did in the Cards post for obvious reasons. I just don't know these players quite as well. Some would argue probably that Gallardo is a bit better than Greinke, but I just don't buy it. CAIRO predicts a pretty ridiculously good ace. ZiPS is pretty conservative for the rate stat; the average of these 4 systems equates to 192 IP at 3.02 FIP. (no clear advantage between Greinke and Waino)

Yovanni Gallardo

CAIRO: 180 IP at 3.48 FIP (2.8 WAR)

Fans: 203/3.53 (3.9 WAR)

ZiPS: 195/3.33

RC: 215/3.43

Gallardo is a great pitcher, but not quite as good as what people were thinking he'd be a couple years ago. The consensus of the 4 systems is that he'll pitch 198 innings at 3.44 FIP. (advantage Carpenter)

Shawn Marcum

CAIRO: 189 IP at 3.67 FIP (3.4 WAR)

Fans: 190 at 3.94 (2.7 WAR)

ZiPS: 151/3.51

RC: 200/3.73

Marcum is sort of like their version of Garcia. He is a pretty damn solid #3 starter for most teams, but he's not as good as Jaime. 183 IP at 3.7 FIP consensus. (advantage Garcia, not really that close)

Randy Wolf

CAIRO: 205 IP at 4.32 FIP (2.2 WAR)

Fans: 204/4.56 (1.4 WAR)

ZiPS: 178/4.32

RotoChamp: 1900/4.2

Wolf is an innings eater like Lohse. The two are fairly comparable. 194 IP at 4.35 FIP average for Wolf though, which means advantage Cardinals for the #4 spot if Lohse stays healthy.

Chris Narveson

CAIRO: 147 IP at 4.05 FIP (1.5 WAR)

Fans: 167/4.26 (1.7 WAR)

ZiPS: 142/4.15

RC: 155/4.02

Narveson's averaged projections are 153 IP at 4.12 (slight advantage Brewers).

I'd guess the two rotations are pretty close overall. However, it's a 3.73 FIP consensus projection for Brewers, 3.56 FIP for the Cardinals, so maybe it's not that close. The Brewers rotation would be expected to throw 920 innings by this method to the Cardinals 884. Could that gap in innings pitched mean anything? Probably not too much, but there is a 36 inning difference.

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Hello VEB and any other baseball fans who have wandered over to this corner of the intertubes (a great network of pipes and tunnels). I've decided to kick off a series of articles on NL Central teams for the 2012 season, similar to ones I wrote last spring. (but instead of Bill James as a component, I'm using CAIRO)

I'm getting a late start on this tonight, so rather than attempt to finish a lengthy post on the entire division, I am going to go one team at a time like most sane folk. And what better team to start with but the Cardinals... (I will probably revisit this vs the other teams on the last post or something like that, towards the end of preseason).

Where to begin? Lots of players on a both familiar and a little strange team (no TLR and Albert?? wat). Anyway, starting out with a familiar but missing in action player is my inclination at the moment (and without much question who should still be the ace of the Cardinals staff).

***

Adam Wainwright

CAIRO: 204 IP at 3.06 FIP (4.5 WAR)

ZiPS: 173 IP at 3.05 FIP

RotoChamp: 175 IP at 2.89 FIP

Fans: 196 IP at 3.2 FIP (4.6 WAR)

The return of Adam will be a much welcomed one looking at these numbers (not to mention his ability to rally a team while starting). An average of 3.05 FIP through the 4 systems listed is nice. Anywhere close to that will be awesome actually. The average expected amount of innings is 187, which would be a robust comeback season after TJ surgery. The projection by CAIRO in particular would be a magnificent return, but I'd be practically just as happy with 175 innings at 2.89 FIP as forecasted by RotoChamp.

Chris Carpenter

CAIRO: 206 IP at 3.23 FIP (3.6 WAR)

ZiPS: 201 IP at 3.29 FIP

RC: 195 IP at 3.11 FIP

Fans: 209 IP at 3.37 FIP (4.4 WAR)

Before I go on, there seems to be a significant difference between how CAIRO and Fans determine WAR total. But I figure that it is worth listing anyway, for the purposes of totaling what each team is projected for by 2 different systems. Any advice on how to handle the CAIRO pitcher's WAR projections would be welcome.

Carpenter looks to be just as important a component in the '12 Cardinals rotation as Wainwright. I think the projections are pretty good for Chris, as far as yeah that's what I'd expect as well as the results. 203 innings pitched at 3.25 FIP is the average projection, about what most fans would think if they knew what FIP was. This average most closely matches the CAIRO and ZiPS projections. RotoChamp and Fans are outliers, one being optimistic about rate and the other about inning count, and vice versa. If all goes well, another 200 innings will be on the books for the tough as nails, cussin like a sailor, hardball hurler.

Jaime Garcia

CAIRO: 166 IP at 3.34 (1.8 WAR)

ZiPS: 184 IP at 3.31

RC: 195 IP at 3.23

Fans: 193 at 3.46 (3.9 WAR)

Garcia is clearly not the WARrior that Waino and Carp probably are, but as a third starter he's pretty kickass. The average expected amount of innings projected is over 184, and at 3.34 FIP or so. This is a capable playoff team again with 3 strong starters, perhaps even better given the starting pitching return of Waino. Again, the averaged projection is about what I'd expect. I don't see him as an innings eater, but I also have seen him be quite effective, and a 3.34 FIP is not out of the question at all, being in between his 2010 and 2011 seasons.

Kyle Lohse

CAIRO: 150 IP at 3.86 FIP (1.2 WAR)

ZiPS: 124 IP at 4.06

RC: 185 IP at 3.8

Fans: 156 IP at 4.16 (1.8 WAR)

As one of my favorite Cardinal players (as much for him sort of being a scapegoat/underappreciated at times as anything) I find the projections for Lohse to be a little crazy, except for RotoChamp, which is one of my favorite projections systems. ZiPS clearly thinks that he'll get hurt for part of the season, or something. Fans kinda approximates he just is not that good. But anyway, as I said I think RC is closest here, but here are the averages: 154 IP @ 3.97 FIP.

Jake Westbrook

CAIRO: 174 IP at 4.07 FIP (1.4 WAR)

ZiPS: 127 IP at 4.19

RC: 160 at 4.2

Fans: 162 at 4.37 (1.5 WAR)

Ouch, fans. That does not look that good. But the CAIRO projection seems pretty decent for a fifth starter! As long as the middle infield is shored up, I don't think he'll be as bad as last year, and a little more towards what we saw in 2010. Average projections are 156 innings pitched at 4.21 FIP.

Like last year, I'm going to hold off on the bullpen and include it more as a tiebreaker in projecting divisional ranking expectations. Plus it will become much clearer who will make up the bullpens of each team later on in spring training games. For now, let's take a look at the hitting projections......

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My impression is that fWAR is more about predicting what could happen going forward, and that bWAR is more about showing what actually happened in a given season. My goal by writing this is to learn more about this difference, and to perhaps gain some insight into what goes into each particular statistic.

First thing to realize is that WAR is different for pitchers and hitters. It is so different that I wonder if pitchers and hitters WAR should be compared. But let's get started with:

Hitting

Fangraphs.com uses wOBA and UZR as key components to their version of WAR. Weighted On Base Average sums up the offense and Ultimate Zone Rating the defense of a position player. Once the sum of wins is realized, fWAR makes an adjustment for position (premium position players such as shortstops and center fielders get bonus points), a league adjustment, and a seasonal adjustment unique to each year's league average.

Baseball-reference.com puts their own spin on WAR, using OPS+ and Total Zone. OPS+ is an adjusted version of OPS, and TZR is a different type of defensive rating. Total Zone uses less information to determine its rating than UZR, thus many say it is not as good at rating defense. However, it is much better at making historical comparisons in defense, and perhaps is less susceptible to statistical distortions (that is only my impression).

Perhaps the main difference is that bWAR downplays the amount of defensive value in its WAR calculation, and fWAR values defense more. Another difference (correct me if I'm wrong) is that OPS+ uses park factors, and wOBA does not. However, wOBA uses linear weights, or statistical corrections for accuracy. So both fWAR and bWAR have their strengths when evaluating position players. One criticism I've had of fWAR is that it uses UZR, notorious for not being accurate on a year by year basis. But it also incorporates wOBA, arguably a much more advanced stat than OPS+. Pretty sure the linear weights still mystify a number of VEBrs, I know it is a bit of a mystery still to me. However, I really like that OPS+ uses park factors.

Pitching

The difference between fWAR and bWAR in evaluating pitching is even more fundamentally great. fWAR uses FIP as its main component. This means that this version of WAR does not exactly show what happened to the pitcher's outcomes. But, it does correct for what type of fielding a pitcher has behind him, which is a big deal. An example would be a quarterback with talent but a poor offensive line. They are just not going to be able to be as good or show their potential. Whereas a mediocre pitcher with an amazing defense will have a much better chance at looking like an excellent pitcher.

This is the main difference, since both bWAR and fWAR use park factors. FIP is much different than ERA.... However, bWAR's pitching equation is not just based on ERA. bWAR uses ERA+ which only adjusts for park and league factors. This version of pitching WAR shows what actually happened in a year, which is less predictive but more of a representation of what happened. This makes bWAR more useful in making historical comparisons, and matches up more with the results of a season. However, defense is often difficult to quantify, and groundball style pitchers tend to buck certain trends in ERA/FIP. So again, both forms of WAR are useful.

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The Hot Stove was yelling, drink some coffee and write! So that's what I am doing, heh. With the option of showing many fanposts (rather than the default amount), it should open up the possibilities of fanposts more. Of course, there is still the Fanshot chat/discussion starter, but that is rarely used. Anyway, my main goal was to look at the current roster thus far into the hot stove season... and to have a completely arbitrary excited moment about it.

Clicking on this link will direct you to the wikipedia version of this, from where I copied this info:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:St._Louis_Cardinals_roster

St. Louis Cardinals 2012 Spring Training roster
40-man roster				Spring Training non-roster invitees		Coaches/Other
Pitchers 41 Mitchell Boggs 29 Chris Carpenter 63 Maikel Cleto 65 Brandon Dickson -- Chuckie Fick -- Samuel Freeman 54 Jaime García 26 Kyle Lohse 62 Lance Lynn 46 Kyle McClellan 30 Jason Motte -- Adam Ottavino 68 Adam Reifer -- J. C. Romero 34 Marc Rzepczynski 59 Fernando Salas 52 Eduardo Sánchez 50 Adam Wainwright 35 Jake Westbrook		Catchers 16 Bryan Anderson 48 Tony Cruz 4 Yadier Molina Infielders 12 Lance Berkman 19 Matt Carpenter 84 Zack Cox 33 Daniel Descalso 23 David Freese 15 Rafael Furcal 27 Tyler Greene 38 Mark Hamilton 47 Pete Kozma 55 Skip Schumaker Outfielders -- Carlos Beltran 56 Adron Chambers 21 Allen Craig 7 Matt Holliday 19 Jon Jay -- Erik Komatsu 43 Shane Robinson		Pitchers -- R. J. Swindle Outfielders -- Eugenio Vélez		Manager 22 Mike Matheny Coaches -- Mike Aldrete (bench) 18 Dave Duncan (pitching) 36 Derek Lilliquist (bullpen) -- John Mabry (assistant hitting) -- Chris Maloney (first base) 25 Mark McGwire (hitting) 58 Jeff Murphy (bullpen catcher) 11 José Oquendo (third base) 60-day disabled list None

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We as Cardinal Nation will miss Albert Pujols greatly. The team lucked out in extreme fashion by drafting Pujols and giving him an opportunity at the major league level in 2001. The start of a decade + bargain Hall of Fame production. Cardinals fans were very spoiled, and eventually it had to end. Depressingly enough, it happened before he was able to retire a Cardinal. Albert was swept off his feet by the Cali Angels, stolen right away from the Cardinals of StL.

Now I don't blame the guy, but it was at least somewhat surprising to me how it went down. On a gut level, just that he wouldn't return because of the money (even though the Cardinals did offer him quite a bit). On a cerebral level, that the Angels would offer one player that much in the latter part of his career. We've all thought about this for long enough now, and it's not what I wanted to write about.

What Pujols did as a Cardinal is difficult to comprehend. He lead the National League in baseball reference WAR from 2005 to 2010. That's six years straight! He also lead the league in 2003. In '03, '06, '08, and '09 Albert was #1 in MLB in bWAR. Considering fWAR, Pujols leads by far from 2001 to 2011. His total is over 12 WAR higher than the next best, Alex Rodriguez. Lance Berkman and Carlos Beltran are 3rd and 4th during this timespan.

As for traditional stats, Albert had an even higher batting average than Ichiro from 2001 to 2011. Pujols had 1,329 RBI as a Cardinal... by far the most of any player. He also scored the most runs: 1,291 runs! Ichiro and Jeter are the only two even close. The end of an era also saw the most home runs in those 11 years. The Machine eliminated 445 pitches, many of them laser beams or absolute bombs.

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The last two seasons I did some statistical projection averaging (mixing each type of projection together, to find what the average projection of a player was; including Bill James, Marcel, RotoChamp, and Fans systems). Here are the projections, with an update; that is what really happened.

St. Louis Cardinals proj wOBA: RotoChamp | Bill James | Marcel | Fans| Projection Ave | fWAR | actual

• 1B Albert Pujols .449 | .452 | .414 | .434 | .437 | 7.5 | 5.1 @.385 (Marcel closest)
• 2B Skip Schumaker .336 | .321 | .318 | .315 | .323 | .6 | .6 @.300 (Fans)
• SS Ryan Theriot .310 | .313 | .304 | .300 | .307 | 1.1 | .7 @.292 (Fans)
• 3B David Freese .319 | .353 | .334 | .341 | .337 | 2.5 | 2.7 @.348 (Bill James)
• C Yadier Molina .331 | .311 | .317 | .319 | .320 | 3.2 | 4.1 @.349 (RotoChamp)
• RF Lance Berkman .380 | .376 | .360 | .367 | .371 | 2.3 | 5.0 @.402 (RotoChamp)
• CF Colby Rasmus .344 | .354 | .343 | .361 | .351 | 4.1 | .8 @.302 (Marcel)
• LF Matt Holliday .401 | .399 | .382 | .395 | .394 | 5.6 | 5.0 @.393 (Ave Proj/Fans)

Cardinals starting rotation FIP projections: RotoChamp | Bill James | Marcel | Fans| Proj Ave | fWAR | actual

• Chris Carpenter 3.48 | 3.27 | 3.50 | 3.59 | 3.46 | 4.1 | 5 @3.06 FIP (Bill James)
• Jake Westbrook 4.23 | 4.15 | 4.14 | 4.14 | 4.17 | 2.8 | 1.1 @4.25 (RotoChamp)
• Jaime Garcia 3.44 | 3.87 | 3.57 | 3.93 | 3.70 | 3.1 | 3.6 @3.23 (RotoChamp)
• Kyle Lohse 4.36 | 4.36 | 4.14 | 4.36 | 4.31 | 1.8 | 2.5 @3.67 (Marcel)
• Kyle McClellan 4.09 | 3.80 | 3.96 | 4.05 | 3.98 | 1.4 | -.6 @4.92 (RotoChamp)

For projecting the Cardinals, RotoChamp is the champ. It was particularly adept at projecting pitching. Fans projection system knew the hitters best. Speaking of fangraphs, its WAR projections were pretty hit and miss. Skip, Freese, Holliday, and Garcia were predicted pretty well. Carp was greater than expectations, as was Lohse & Berkman. Holliday almost exactly match the averaged projection in wOBA. No one saw the precipitous drop in production from Pujols and Rasmus. RotoChamp was not fooled by Westbrook last season. More on the other teams...

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1. Autechre - pce freeze 2.8i (electronic)

2. All Natural Lemon and Lime Flavors - Catcher (alt-pop/shoegaze)

3. Clutch - Sinkemlow (hard rock)

4. Failure - Moth (90's alternative rock)

5. Matt Elliott - Broken Bones (dirge/singer-songwriter)

6. Dysrhythmia - Running Shoe of Justice (tech-metal)

7. Faceditch - Space Flight Cat (jazz fusion)

8. Tortoise - Minors (post-rock/fusion)

9. Tipsy - Zombies Mood (electronic/collage)

10. Belong - October Language (experimental/ambient)

11. Karp - Octoberfleshed (sludge rock)

12. The Nels Cline Singers - Squirrel of God (jazz/indie)

13. Estradasphere - Elderly Normal Samurai Tortoises (fusion/video game)

14. Sun Ra and the Blues Project - Flight of the Batman (jazz)

15. Iron Maiden - The Talisman (classic heavy metal) 

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There are plenty of things I'm on the fence about after the magnificent ending to the 2011 season. World Series champs again, and it feels sooooo much better than it did in 2006 (in my opinion anyway, I think most would agree). But something happened after that that was at least a little bittersweet. Tony Larussa retired after an era in Cardinals baseball had become obvious that it was complete.

I joined VEB back during the end of spring training 2008 (or was that 2007?). Anyway, it was right before the season started. I remember Hardcore Legend once describing to me why people did not like Larussa as much as I would have thought at the time. I tended to disagree, still thinking Larussa was some kind of genius mastermind. I think VEB in general was saying it was all smoke and mirrors, and that he was not actually that good of a manager (of course there were a few exceptions). At the time I did have some inkling what they were talking about, but did not think about it much (and in the past, not at all). In fact I thought it was a little suspect, considering Tony's track record, especially since winning in 2006 with a not so great team... and somehow righting the ship in 2007 so that the team still did have a chance (which was on Ankiel's shoulders too much.... I'm still rather disappointed about how the HGH thing played out. it's times like that where I can hate sports journalism, or whatever it was).

But going forward, after I had time to absorb why many criticized Larussa, reading game threads and comments, I started to realize what they were talking about. Tony seemed to be getting a little worse with age, to put it lightly. Did we ever see Adam Kennedy deployed as he was in 2008? To me it almost seemed sarcastic or a joke to play someone like Adam Kennedy in the outfield 10 times, 6 of them starts? What was going on there? AK would be one of the lesser talked about people who either disgruntled TLR or vice versa: Tony totally getting under your nerves and your goat.

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2011... the 130th season for the franchise, and the 120th in the National League. The 11th world championship team. Sixth season at Busch III, 2nd world championship already for the young venue. Prior to, what would be the biggest signing, Lance Berkman enters StL Cardinals legacy of great players to have donned the birds on the bat.

Unfortunately the most memorable event of the preseason was the season-ending injury of staff ace Adam Wainwright. The other story being Kyle McClellan's not losing the replacement spot in the rotation. As that would play out, he was probably not the right choice for the role. But hindsight is never 20/20.

On the very first game of the season, one could have saw that the year would be a very dramatic one. The first sign of Ryan Franklin's inefficacy at pitching (let alone being the closer). Franklin blew a save against the light hitting Padres in the very first game, which resulted in a loss in extra innings for the Cardinals. The opener was also the first sign of Holliday's weird injuries... Matt complaining of pains culminating in the need for an appendectomy the next day. 

For many of us, it was already time to panic. One of the 2 key hitters for the team was out already, and the sting of losing Adam Wainwright was still in 100% full effect. However, Holliday was not out very long and returned to the lineup a week and a half later, and got on base 3 times in one game. Further bringing up the hopes was Lance Berkman's NL Player of the Week performance: a stunning 6 home runs and 1.167 slugging percentage. The Puma was back in full force, just as good as he had been in the height of his career.

Albert Pujols showed a literally slow start, in what would be his "worst" performance over a season (which is still pretty ridiculous). April saw Albert ground into 9 double plays for the NL lead in that area of the game. It would be remiss not to mention, however, that the Cardinals were an extremely prolific offense; leading the league. They did not strike out much, and showed some pop with 429 total bases. Quite thrilling after some not so hot offensive performances the previous few years.

As would be the story the whole season, the Cardinals overcame some serious question marks about the bullpen, and were the first place NL Central team. Franklin just could not get it done, and neither could Trever Miller. Mitchell Boggs was given the chance to gain the role of closer, but didn't quite nail down the position. The bullpen would remain in chaos held up by the talents of Salas, Motte, Boggs, and the very impressive debut of Eduardo Sanchez's first 10 innings pitched as a Cardinal.

To kick off May, David Freese was again seriously injured when Scott Linebrink broke his left hand with a HBP. This again shortened one of his early seasons in his career as a Cardinal. The closer role was not given back to Ryan Franklin, saving the Cardinals season. Instead Sanchez took over the role of closer briefly, and then Fernando Salas had it on lockdown with 7 saves in 7 chances in the second half of May. Pujols was still terrible for his usual self, posting a .755 OPS over the first two months of the season. There were other injuries as well, but perhaps most noticeable was the absence of the Tony Larussa for six games, due to a serious case of shingles.

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well well well. I must admit after the last series vs the Brewers the rivalry matchup didn't seem to be over. For a year or so, the Reds wrestled the mantle away from the Brewers (who have overshadowed any worries cast by the Cubs in recent memory). Of course, expecting the rivalry and subplots to continue in the year 2012. But in true dramatic fashion, the 2011 Cardinals are still playing ball.

The Cardinals have been impressive vs the Brewcrew lately taking 6 of 7 from them. This perhaps has caused Nyjer Morgan to taunt the Cardinals' players and fanbase. Because of the existing visible animosity between him and Cardinals most overt mouthpiece Chris Carpenter, this has only just become more heated up chemistry wise. This could effect both ballclub' play in the NLCS to some non-quantifiable extent. Prior to the offseason both team's star hitters were hit by the pitch. Both teams have been very competitive vs each other in the last decade or so, and both teams will be trying harder than ever to win.

Both teams were projected to be among the best in the NL (even without Adam Wainwright). The upper hand goes to the Brewers, but it may not be as indicative of the win-loss record we saw in the regular season. Milwaukee was obviously better in the regular season... and they were one of the elite teams in MLB. Before getting into team stats, I wanted to know what the record of the Cardinals is vs the Brewers within this rivalry.

• over the past decade the Cardinals are 100-80 vs the Brewers
• since 2003 the Cards are 80-66 vs Brewers
• 47-50 since 2006
• 30-36 since 2008
• 25-26 since '09
• 16-17 since '10
• 9-9 in 2011

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Watching the bullpen tonight with Boggs and Motte throwing, makes one think of possible closers for the team. But it also brings thoughts of if there should be a certain person pitching in a certain inning. With mainly Franklin as closer, the Cardinals were getting in the low 40's in saves. This total dipped last season, and obviously this year was a disaster for him. Even the beard was gone, foreshadowing an early retirement of a once competitive player. 

Bullpen drama is nothing new, however. It's a part of the game, in its somewhat questionable effect on a team. The main effect being in management, deciding when to pull the plug in a difficult situation. The Cards triumvirate of DeLarusliak went par for the course; handling the situation fairly overall, I suppose. If it had gone on any longer though, the mood would not be favorable, as a player takes up a roster spot for no discernible reason. The expulsion of Batista and Franklin is a sort of a feel-good bittersweet situation. Especially when considering last year's roster which was full of players that needed to be jettisoned.

Poll

on the closer situation:

68%

I think Salas should be closer. he's just more reliable and consistent

103 votes

2%

Jason Motte... why is he not the closer?

4 votes

8%

Mitchell Boggs: probably the most talented pitcher of the 4 bullpen

13 votes

2%

Lance Lynn - I'll go with the dark horse. The Cards have already said they want to try him in high leverage situations. They think those are usually in closing

4 votes

17%

keep it by committee; abolish the closer role

27 votes

151 votes | Poll has closed

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The Phillies are the best team in baseball right now, just ahead of the Red Sox and Cardinals. Last time I wrote a fanpost, Boston were not a factor. Now, they are ahead of the Yankees, who were the offensive juggernaut in the AL East. While the Yankees are still .6 wins ahead in WAR as an offensive team, the Red Sox have raised their wOBA to .346, just a tic behind the Yankees' .347. The Yankees, however, have a lower team BABIP so perhaps the Red Sox have just been lucky of late. I don't really think they are the team to beat in the East, despite their first place record.

The two teams really are quite evenly matched on offense it seems. Both have an equal number of RBIs... but the main difference is power and plate discipline. The Yanks have shown more power in home runs and ISO, but the Red Sox get on base more... due to their .306 BABIP. NY has been a little unlucky though, explaining why Boston has quite a bit higher team batting average. This is kind of an illusion with the on base percentage; the Yankees actually have a higher walk rate too. They have more power and a better eye.

What's even crazier is that the two team's pitching staffs are nearly identical. Both have a .285 BABIP against, and nearly the same WAR total and FIP rate. Also, the two teams BB/9, HR/9, and K/9 are nearly the same. Both ballclubs have a slightly above mediocre starting pitching corps, and great bullpens. What's more, the 2 AL East leaders have very equal fielding ratings. This could be a classic NYC vs Boston division race. Then again, it's not even halfway through the season, so maybe the Rays' superior fielding can vault them into first or a wild card. They will just have to drastically improve their hitting and pitching.

Poll

Which team will be really tough to beat?

17%

Red Sox

11 votes

1%

Yankees

1 votes

0%

Indians

0 votes

0%

Tigers

0 votes

4%

Rangers

3 votes

26%

Phillies

17 votes

0%

Braves

0 votes

14%

Cardinals

9 votes

35%

Brewers

23 votes

64 votes | Poll has closed

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